REGION OF
SOUTHERN AFRICA
(LAND ISSUES)
Lucie Konečná
BSSn4457 Regional Security Complexes
0 9 / 1 1 / 2 0 2 3
- - - - - s u b r a m p t e x b o u n d a r i e s
^ — ^ — R S C boundaries
• — Suparcomplex boundary
Map 2. Patterns of Regnal Security Post-Cold War
COMOROS
Q»Moroni .
Victoria ^ 6
SEYCHELLES
MAURITIUS
Port Louis*
lanaparivo
AGASCAR
Southern African
Region
theodora.com/maps
SWAZILAND
LESOTHO
SADC vs. SACU
Facts about SAR
NG - South Africa, Malawi, Botswana, Namibia, Zimbabwe, Zambia,
Mozambique, Angola, Lesotho and Eswatini.
Population - 187 mil (SA 60 mil)
https://fragilestatesindex.org/analytics/fsi-heat-map/ Africa map of Koppen climate classification
FSI (FFP) - Zimbabwe (16), Mozambique (21), Angola (2
Zambia (48), Malawi (43).
Full democracy
• 9.0-10.0
• S.0 - 9.0
Flawed democracy
• 7.0 - 8.0
5.0-7.0
Hybrid regime
5 . 0 - 6 0
4.0 - 5.0
Authoritarian regime
I 3.0 - 4.0
2 0 3C
• 0 - 2.0
No data
Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit.
* ' t
• Equatorial climate (At)
• Monsoon cllmata (Am)
Tropical savanna climate (Aw)
•Warm desert climate (BWn)
• C o l d desert climate (BWk)
Warm suml-arld climate (BSh)
• C o l d semi-arid climate (BSk)
•Warm mediterranean climate (Csa)
•Temperate mediterranean climate (Cab)
"Humid subtropical climate (Cwa)
"Humid subtropical climate/
Subtropical oceanic highland climate (Cwb)
•Warm oceanic climate/
Humid subtropical climate (Cfa)
Temperate oceanic climate (Cm)
Overlapping Effects of Autocracy and Conflict i n Africa
Freedom
B Free
L Partially Free
• Not Free
AFRICA CENTER
FOR S T R A T E G I C STUDIES
ii Ě TÍ M E L L E í
Source: Data f r o m Freedom House
MOROCCO
CAPE VERDE MALI
GAMBIA
QIUKl BISSAJ SUPIA
MTB roůo
J M I
^I^P CAMERDOM
SQlMTflBUL flUIW*
„ fliF. V
&AO TOME THE
AND PRINCIPE SABDil COü«
Conflict
B Intense
0 Serious
|_ Sporadic
SEYCHELLES
M DZAM B: C U E
Source: Da t ei from Center for Systemic Peace
Form of Government
| | presidential republics, lull
presidential system
| presidential republics, executive
presidency linked to a parliament
| presidential republics: semipresidential
system
| parliamentary republics
| | parliamentary constitutional
monarchies in which the monarch d
not personally exercise power
| | absolute monarchies
Angola
Score: 19/100
Rank:165/180
Botswana
Score: 61/100
Rank: 34/180
Cabo Verde
Score: 57/100
Rank: 45/180
Cote d'lvoire
Score: 35/100
Rank:105/180
Democratic
Republic
of the Congo
Score: 20/100
Rank: 161/180
Equatorial
Guinea
Score: 16/100
Rank: 172/180
Guinea
Score: 28/100
Rank: 138/180
Guinea Bissau
Score: 16/100
Rank: 172/180
Kenya
Score: 27/100
Rank:144/180
Libya
Score: 17/100
Rank: 170/180
Mozambique
Score: 23/100
Rank: 158/180
Namibia
Score: 53/100
Rank: 52/180
Nigeria
Score: 27/100
Rank:144/180
Rwanda
Score: 56/100
Rank: 48/180
Senegal
Score: 45/100
Rank: 67/180
Seychelles
Score: 66/100
Rank: 28/180
Somalia
Score: 10/100
Rank: 180/180
South Africa
Score: 43/100
Rank: 73/180
South Sudan
Score: 13/100
Rank: 178/180
Sudan
Score: 16/100
Rank: 172/180
Tanzania
Score: 36/100
Rank: 99/180
Highly I Very
corrupt ^ ^ H ^ ^ ^ l ^ ^ ^ l ^ ^ H clean
0-9 10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 S0-S9 60-69 70-79 80-89 90-100
South Africa
• 60 mil inhabitants, Christianity
78%
• Anglo-Zulu war, Boer wars.
• Union of South Africa 1910,
Apartheid 1948, RSA1961.
• African National Congress (ANC).
• South African Border War.
Eswatini and Lesotho
Kingdom, absolute monarchy
1,2 mil inhabitants, Christianity 90%.
Independence 1968.
Constitutional monarchy.
2,2 mil inhabitants, Christianity 95%.
Independence 1966. Luanda
CONGO
ANGOLA
South
Atlantic
Ocean
Etosh a
NP
Dar es Salaam
Indian
Ocean
Z A M B I A
L u s a k a *
* Victoria .Harare y i ^
wee***™* ^°
NAMIBIA * -:
Z!SBABWE'
BOTSWANA
Gaborone*
+
Windhoek
Kruger
_ p r e t 0 | i a a N P
River • + * Maputo
Canyon Johannesburg * M b a b a n e
" ' " W M a s e r , * S W A T , N I
/' " D u r b a n
(SOUTH AfRICA L
^ ) T H 0
Antananarivo
Indian
Ocean
500 k m
Cape Town
Port Elizabeth
S o u t h e r n A f r i c a
Namibia
• 2,5 mil inhabitants,
Christianity 90%.
• South African Border War
(1966-1990)
• Independence 1990.
• Caprivi War 1999 - CLA
Caprivi Liberation Army.
• SWAPO - South-West
African People's
Organization
Botswana
2,5 mil inhabitants, Christianity 58%
1885 Bechuanaland.
Independcence 1966.
Botswana Democratic Party (BDS).
The lowest perceived corruption
ranking and the highest level of
democracy.
Tswana 79%, Kalanga 11%, San 3%
Botswana Religious affiliation (2011)
0.5%
3.0% 57.9%
Christian
none
Badimo
Muslim
other
© Encyclopaedia Britannica, Inc.
Zambia
• 18,5 mil inhabitants, Christianity 95,5%.
• Barotseland-North-Western Rhodesia and NorthEastern
Rhodes 1911 Northern Rhodesia, 1953-
1963 the Federation of Rhodesia and Nyasaland.
• Independence 1964.
• United National Independence Party (UNIP),
Kenneth Kaunda, 1964-1991.
• Change of political regime 1991.
• Movement for Multi-Party Democracy (1991-
2011), Patriotic Front (2011-2021), United Party
for National Development (2021-).
Zimbabwe
Z a m b i a
N a m i b i a
Lusaka _
Zambezi
River •
M o z a m b i q u e
Lake
Kariba
15 mil inhabitants, Christians constituted 86%
1923 Southern Rhodesia.
Rhodesian Bush War 1964-1979 (ZANU, government forces
Rhodesian Front led Ian Smith/Abela Muzorewa,
ZAPU-Zimbabwe African People's Union).
Independence 1965/1980 (In 1965, the white separatist
minority government unilaterally declared independence).
Riots in Matabele (1980-1988), Gukurahundi genocide,
ZAPU (Michael Nkomo) + ZANU.
Victoria
Falls
•
Kariba
nga
Hwange C H
[f,A
L;|R A
n
HwangeNat Park
MAFUNGABUSA
PLATEAU
Mana Pools
Nat. Park
Chinhoyi
M unyati H a r a r e
pR/Ver C h i t u n g w i z a ^
Alt. Nyangani
Kadoma
Z i m b a b w e
Matobo Masvingo $ a v e
Bulawayo Nat Park • * R i v
^
Great Zimbabwe
MATOPO ^ o t
- Monument
Runde
Mutare
HILLS
River •
•
125 km
Z I M B A B W E
L O W / H I L L S / M O U N T A I N S
Zimbabwe African National Union - Patriotic Front (ZANU-P;t ;n i c c o m p o s m o n { 2 0 0 3 )
Robert Mugabe 1987-2017, Emmerson Mnangagwa.
Beitbridge Gonarezhou
.. • Nat. Park
Limpopo 7
River Kruger
S o u t h Nat. Park
A f r i c a •
©GraphicMaps.corr
Shona
Maebele
other African
white
mixed race/Asian
Ě Encyclopaedia Brnanraca, inc.
Mozambique
• 32 mil inhabitants, Christianity 60%, Islam 19%,
• Independence 1975 - FRELIMO - Liberation Front
of Mozambique.
• Civil war 1977-1992 (RENAMO - Mozambican
National Resistance vs. FRELIMO).
• 1994 - first multiparty elections.
• RENAMO insurgency (2013-2021).
• Conflict in Cabo Delgado (2017 -).
ETHNICITY IN MOZAMBIQUE
• M a k u a n a • M a k u a Tsonga L o m w e B T s w a B O t h e r s B S e n a B C h w a b o
Angola
33 mil inhabitants, Christians constituted 92 %.
Angolan War of Independence 1961-1974.
Independence 1975.
Civil war 1975 - 2002 (People's Movement for the Liberation
of Angola MPLA, National Union for the Total Independence
of Angola UNITA, National Front for the Liberation of Angola F
Cabinda War (Front for the Liberation of the Enclave of Cabind
FLEC).
Jose Eduardo dos Santos (MPLA) 1979 - 2017, Joao Loureng
Kwango R.
Kwilu R
Dem. Rep.
of Congo
Kasai R.
Ocean
Sumtx
N'dalatando
• Malange
Cuanza R.
\
1
I
Lucapa"
'iCuilO R,
{ Uibiiash
R
Saurimo
Ovimbundu
Kimbundu
Kongo
Lwena
(Luvale)
Chokwe
Kwanyama
Nyaneka
Luchazi
Ambo (Ovambo)
other
Malawi
• 19,9 mil inhabitants, Christians constituted 77 %, Muslims 14%.
• 1907 British protectorate Nyasaland, 1953 Federation of Rhodesia and
Nyasaland.
• 1964 independence, Malawi Congress Party (MCP) - one-party system
until 1993.
• United Democratic Front 1994 - 2009, Democratic Progressive Party 2009 •
Tanzania-Malawi dispute over Nyasa/Malawi lake.
Territorial Disputes among States
P A R T I T I O N
O F A F R I C A
1885-1914 Rio De Oro
Spanish
M o r o c c o _
Algeria
oro ceo ( F r )
I F r J
^ Libya
( i t )
Colonial Powers
| | B r i t i s h
| | French
German
I I P o r t u g u e s e
| | I t a l i a n
| | Belgian
I I Spanish
| | I n d e p e n d e n t
French West Africa
Gambia (Br.)
Port. Guinea
Sierra Leone
(Br.) Liberia
Gold coast
(Br.) TOGO
Eritrea (It.)
French Sornaliland
ritish
sornaliland
Italian
Sornaliland
(Ger.j
Rio Muni
(Sp.:
Cabin did
(Port.)
German
Southwest
Africa
Union of
South Africa (Br.)
British
East Africa
rman East Africa
o z a m - / Madagascar
° . u e
1 / (FN
(Port.) ^
orange Free
State (Br.)
White
Genocide/Land
Reforms
• Land reforms in SA - 1996 (87% owned by White),
2012 (67% owned by White), 1997 White Paper
on Land Reform, 2011 Green Paper on Land
Reform, since 2017 attempts of Land
Expropriation without Compensation (LEWC).
• Land reforms in Namibia - "Willing buyer, willing
seller" principle applies, Land Reform Act of 1995
- three pillars, 2004 land value tax.
• Land reforms in Zimbabwe - Lancaster House
Agreement 1980, Zimbabwean Land Acquisition
Act of 1992, Zimbabwe National Liberation War
Veterans Association (ZNLWVA), 2005 Constitutional
amendment Fast Track.
• Situation in Zambia and Botswana.
• SA police definition on Farm attack: „Attacks on
farms and smallholdings refer to acts aimed on the
persons of residents, workers and visitors to farms
and smallholdings, whether with the intent to
murder, rape, rob or inflict bodily harm. In addition,
all actions aimed at disrupting farming activities as
a commercial concern, whether for motives related
to ideology, labour disputes, land issues, revenge,
grievances or intimidation, should be included."
White
Genocide
• 2001 - Committee of Inquiry into Farm
Attacks.
• The number of farmers of European descent
had decreased by one third since 1997.
• Creation of private armed patrols -
„Farmwatch"
• Protests Cape Town and Prayer meeting in
Bloemfontein 2017, murder of Klapmuts
farmer Joubert Conradie, #BlackMonday
convoy, 2020 Senekal, 2022 Kirkwood
• Motives for farm attacks: pervasiveness of
violence, increasing poverty, unemployment
and socio-economic crisis, retaliation, history
of land dispossession and forceful evictions,
untenable labour practices and labouremployers
power relations, free access to
armament, failed land reform schemes,
breakdown of community policing, and
ineffective security apparatus.
(08-10-2020
Haha..,yes who would have known?! All the racist blacks & woke
whites are suddenly very outspoken about noting - NOW it's
wrong!!!
twitter.com/LoneStar_Skye/...
|08-10-2020
Great to see South Africans suddenly become such an anti-rioting,
law-abiding and property-respecting nation.
White people should've Nipped a police vehicle decades ago.
Tweet categorising fawn attacks as hate crimes
•05/10/2020
iBrendin Horner, young South African (21), ANOTHER victim of a
|bruta! farm murder! Hung on a pole, stabbed several times, broken
fists as lie fought for his life Government deni*s that these hate
crimes (on our minority) are serious- MARCH at Senekal magistrate
court. 6 Oct. 11:00
O 20 LI 256 O 372
Year Farm attacks Farm murders
2011 96 48
2012 174 53
2016 357 70
2021 415 55
2022 333 50
2023 153* 33*
Table 3: Trends in the prosecution of alleged attackers on farms
Escaped 52%
Apprehended 4 5 %
Arrested 4 1 %
Released 7%
Charged 3 9 %
Appeared i n Court 2 9 %
Convicted 2 3 %
Sentenced 2 3 %
Julius Malema
• Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) - 2013
• Was elected to a seat in the National Assembly in 2014, re-elected in 2019
• "Kill the Boer, Kill the Farmer,,
• Hate speech, threats to journalists
• Charged with fraud, money-laundering and racketeering (case was dismissed by
the courts in 2015 due to excessive delays by the National Prosecuting
Authority)
i 'p.neiJ '.villi mapílwt.nei S
High Level of Criminality
Crime Rate by Country 2022
1. Venezuela (83.76)
2. Papua New Guinea (80.79)
3. South Africa {76.86)
4. Afghanistan {76.31)
5. Honduras (74.54)
6. Trinidad and Tobago (71.63)
7. Guyana (68.74)
8. El Salvador (67.79)
9. Brazil (67.49)
10. Jamaica (67.42)
Crime Index
10 • 20 • 20 • 40 • 50 • 60 • TO • SO • 90
High Level of Criminalityr mm ^ mmr
CRIME CATEGORY 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/201S 2015/2016 2016/2017 2017/2018 2018/2019 20B/I020 CaseDiff % Change
CONTACT CRIMES {CRIMESAGAINST THE PERSON)
Murder 15833 15554 16213 17CZ3 17 805 18673 19016 20 336 21022 21325 303 1,4%
Sexual Offences 64 921 60 539 60SSÄ 56 680 53617 51395 49660 50108 52420 S3 293 873 1,7%
Attempted murder 15160 14730 16236 16989 17537 18127 18 205 18233 18980 13635 •345 -1,854
Assault with the intent to inflict grievous bodily harm 197470
151=12 185 GEO 132 333 182 933 170 616 167 35! 170979 166720 4259 -2,5%
Common assault 184103 180165 171563 166031 151455 164 958 156450 156 243 mu 165494 3432 us
Common robbery 54442 51566 53196 53 505 54927 54110 5341S 50 730 51765 51325 60 0,1%
Robbery with agsjavating dim mstanoes 101039 100 769 105 488 113963 125C45 132527 140 956 138 364 140 032 143990 39:8 2,8%
Total Contact Crimes (Cri mes Against The Person| mm 6159)5 60S 724 611574 616973 623223 608 321 601 366 617210 621 232 4 072 0,7%
Total Sexual Offences
Rase «158 47 069 43403 45349 <3195 41503 39828 40035 41S83 42289 706 1,7%
Sexual Assault 7006 7154 6967 6597 6037 6212 6271 6786 7437 7749 312 4,2%
Attempted Sexual Offences 3599 3 535 3293 2913 IK 2 573 2 OB 2066 2146 2076 •70 -3,3%
Contact Sexual Offences 6158 2741 2220 1821 1:54 1607 1483 1221 1234 1179 -75 40K
Total Sexual Offences 64 921 60 539 60 883 56680 53617 51395 49 660 50108 52420 53293 373 1,7%
SOME SUBCATEGORIES OF AGGRAVATED ROBBERY
Ca'j=iins 10541 9417 9931 11180 12 773 14 602 16717 16 325 16026 Iiis; 2136 13,3%
Robbery at residential premises 16 SO 16766 17950 19284 20281 20320 22 3<3 22261 22431 21133 •1301 -tfft
Robbery at non-residential premises 14 5;7 15912 16343 18 573 19170 19 698 20 680 20 047 19991 23:51 660 3,3%
Robbery ofcash in transit 290 182 145 145 119 137 152 238 183 164 -19 •10,*
Bank robbery 39 3S 7 21 17 6 3 13 4 0 4 -100,03«
Truck hijacking 999 821 M W l
JJX
1279 1184 1133 1202 1132 1202 20 1,7%
1
Urbanisation in African regions
1950 1980 2000 2015 2050
Sub-Saharan
Africa
10.7 22.4 30.8 37.9 54.8
Africa 14.0 26.7 34.5 40.4 55.9
Eastern Africa 5.6 145 20.6 25.6 43.6
Middle Africa 14.0 27.5 36.8 44 60.8
Northern Africa 26.0 41.3 48.4 51.6 63.3
Southern Africa 37.7 44.7 53.8 61.6 74.3
Western Africa 8.4 23.6 34.7 45.1 62.7
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_slums
n South Africa
and Zambia
Thank you for your
attention