CDSn4001: Conflict Analysis International systemic causes of war: critiques of balance of power October 16, 2023 Miriam Matejova, PhD Agenda • Critique of neorealism • Constructivism and conflict Basic tenets of realism Interest of states Survival How to achieve survival Increase power Human nature Man is flawed and therefore prone to conflict Anarchy The environment in which sovereign nation-states act Polarity in international politics Examples Unipolarity The hegemon keeps order, sets up the rules, mediates disputes, and opposes any autonomous action Rome USA since 1991? Bipolarity Two competing great power hegemons. Each presides over an alliance of weaker states. Athens vs Sparta (5th century BC) The Cold war Tripolarity With three great powers, no balance is possible. Each state seeks to avoid having the other two gang up on it. ? Multipolarity With a municipality of powers, multiple combinations can produce balance. Almost all European history (19th century Europe) World since 9/11? Status quo vs revisionist states • Status-quo states – Generally satisfied – Goal is self-preservation – Tend to balance • Revisionist states – Generally dissatisfied – Motivated not by security but by opportunity – goal is self-extension – Tend to bandwagon Is this a realist world? • Do you agree with realists? Why (not)? • How do we achieve peace in a realist world? In a neorealist world? International Anarchy – a myth? • “Anarchy is what states make of it.” • If states behave conflictually, then the nature of anarchy appears to be conflictual. If states behave cooperatively, then it appears the nature of international anarchy is cooperative. • What states do depends on what states’ identities and interests are, and identities and interests change. • Because states and actors think anarchy is a certain way, it exists to them in that way! Constructivism • Among the most influential IR traditions of the late 1990s/early 2000s • Elements of global politics (e.g., state interactions) are historically and socially constructed; they are not some inevitable consequences of human nature. • Emphasis on the meanings of ideas, objects, and actors. These are determined by social interaction. • States will try to survive, but we don’t know how they will achieve survival – could be through cooperation or conflict. Beyond a realist world • Constructivism doesn’t disregard states as central actors in global politics but allows for other forces to shape the world, as well. • Ideational factors: identities, values, norms, beliefs • Shared norms govern actors’ relationships – E.g., non-use of WMD, prohibition of slavery, of genocide, etc. • It is fundamentally about the possibility of change within the international system (not of the system) Do political leaders matter?