CDSn4001:
Conflict
Analysis
Hypotheses on military
factors as a cause of war
October 23, 2023
Miriam Matejova, PhD
Agenda
• What military factors encourage or
discourage conflict among states?
• What is the significance of
offense/defense as a cause of war?
• What is the significance of military
culture as a cause of war?
Anarchy and the security dilemma
• When states look at the
system of anarchy, they feel
insecure
– State A builds up military
power
– State B: Why did state A do
that? Are they going to
attack us?
– State A: Why did State B do
that? Are they going to
attack?
• Arms race
• Trying to ensure their own
security, these states have
created more insecurity.
C
A
B
Offense/defense and the security
dilemma
Discussion questions
• What is the role of geography and technology
in a world of defense? A world of offense?
• Can the security dilemma ever be “removed”
in an (anarchic) international system?
• What would an international system without
anarchy look like? What is the alternative?
Preventive vs pre-emptive war
• Pre-emptive war
– First move by opponent is imminent
– Evidence of an attack in the short term
– The first mover gains an important advantage
• Preventive war
– Perception that attack will happen in the long term
– Better to attack before opponent gains strength