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14.11.2023
GLCb2028 Artificial Intelligence in Political Science and Security Studies
Jan KLEINER
jkleiner@mail.muni.cz
Wargame
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AI and Wargames (Knack and Powell, 2023)
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•Red Teaming in general (political/security/other simulations, table-tops -> identification of gaps
in a strategy, SWOT analyses, policy analyses etc.).
•Narrow (safe) usage: Repetitive tasks within sims and wargames (background info creation,
automatic translation/transcription, textual data analysis, visuals etc.).
•High-risk usage: Red team, game manager etc.
•Low cost/questionable reliability.
•Better on tactical/operational level than on the strategic one.
•

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Wargame theory – introduction I (Appleget et. al, 2020)
1.
1.
•Usually a sponsor – sets goals and timeframe.
•Sole purpose of the analytic wargame is to collect analytic data to answer sponsor´s (research)
questions – data determine wargame´s success à well tought-out data collection plan is needed!
•Roadmap = data collection and management plan (DCMP).
•Not just for combat/conflict scenarios, but for Analysis of alternatives (AoA) – e.g., M1A2 Abrams
and its replacement options.
•+ pedagogic, research tool.

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Wargame theory – introduction II (Appleget et. al, 2020)
1.
1.
•Course of action wargaming.
•BOGGSAT = "bunch of guys and gals sitting around a table„.
•Vs.
•Seminar wargames - designed around the DCMP (Decision-Centric Methodology Process) and have a
structured approach.
•Quantitative/qualitative/hybrid models.
•Strong role of probability and chance (dice rolls) + conditioned probability (e.g., missile
interception of Iron Dome AA system – informed by statistics).
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•

Source: Appleget et al. (2020, p. 73).



Nuclear War Simulator Shows What War With Russia Would Look Like
Process:
1.Choose the arena of the simulation – wargame/strategic table-top/policy analysis/COA etc.
•Why? – justification, purpose -> litreview
1.
2.Choose the specifics of the simulation framework – actors, setting, dividing into teams, roles
etc.
3.
3.Proceed while adhering to the literature.

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AI and Wargame (Appleget et al., 2020)
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•Will it be an analytic wargame? If so, how will we collect data? à Data Collection and Management
Plan (DCMP).
•BOGGSAT vs. seminar wargame (designed around the DCMP)? Do not choose only because it is easy!
•Who will be the fascilitator?
•Establish a wargame plan – every task that needs to be accomplished for preparation, execution,
analysis, and reporting.
•Incorporate AI tools into the wargame – adere to literature!
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•
•

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DCMP (Appleget et al., 2020, p. 104)
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Design (Appleget et al., 2020)
•Measurement space (if analytical) – quantitative/qualitative?; conceptualisation and
operationalisation; function of the scenario – e.g., TTDs of MBTs).
•Scenario – sets scene + narrative for players; must be plausible (we do not want players to „fight
the scenario“).
•Data – initiate (data we need before the wargame begins), feedback data (needed to keep players
playing – injects, responses etc.), analysis data.
•Methods, models, and tools.
•Players.
•Assumptions – all scenarios set in future need assumptions! à time setting needs to be decided as
well (past, present, future).
•à Practical exercise (p. 128).

References I
•Appleget, J. Burks, R. & Cameron, F. (2020). The Craft of Wargaming – A Detailed Planning Guide
for Defense Planners and Analysts. Annapolis: Naval Institute Press. ISBN 9781682473771
•Knack, A. & Powell, R. (2023). Artificial Intelligence in Wargaming An evidence-based assessment
of AI applications. The Alan Turing Institute.
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Questions?
Jan KLEINER
jkleiner@mail.muni.cz
Thank you for your attention.
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