R E G I O N A L S E C U R I T Y Lucie Konečná BSSb 1105 International Security Policy 24/10/2024 Regional Security Region is the area of interest to many fields of science. Definition and characteristics of RS: a) "System of mutual relations between countries in the region against the threats of instability crises, armed conflicts and regional wars" (Kusztal A., 2017 - Theoretical foundations of regional security in international relations). b) Most frequently, security at the regional level is built based upon a system or an alliance operating within the defined region, and "regional security institutions are often, but not a ways, established on the basis of geographical boundaries of the region, at the interface of functional cooperation. Criteria of regional security according to Kusztal: - the military potential of states of a region and its technical and technological levels; - the condition, strategy and the size of armed forces of countries in a region; - the quality of management of a defense sector in states of a region; - the character of borders between countries of a region and of external ones (geographical and political); - political and military alliances of regional range; - the role of political elites and rationality in choosing allies within - and beyond a region Security architecture and relations among states „>AA7 institutional system of organizing relations between states guaranteeing their security. It is based on the assumption that issues and problems related to the security of states cannot be solved individually." Cooperative security - ongoing effort to reduce the risk of war that does not target a specific state or coalition of states Collective security - states avoid the use of force in mutual relations (two principles - the obligation to resolve all disputes by peaceful means, the prohibition of the use of force in mutual relations) Collective defense - system of joint defense against external threats, i.e. against attacks by states that are not members of the organization Evolution of security studies towards regional security - Critical Security • Shift in the 90s (The first impulse - Toronto school - Strategies in Conflict: Critical Approaches to Security Studies) • Traditional security studies focused on military and state as a referent object • A shift in the definition of the referent object and threats • According to Waisova, there are two main characteristics of CSS: a) Exploring the differences between the Euro-Atlantic approach and that of Third World authors b) The concept of the individuals as a separate referent object • Mohammed Ayoob - subaltern realism • Discussion of the concept of security in the 90s - three groups - A) group against changing the agenda (John Mearsheimer, Stephen Walt) - B) group supporting the partial change (Schultz, Buzan?, Greenwood) - C) group supporting radical reform (Ulman, Kegley, Kolodzej) Evolution of security studies towards regional security - Toronto School • 1994 - small conference at the York University entitled Strategies in Conflict: Critical Approaches to Security Studies • Keith Krause and Michael C. Williams - Critical Security Studies: Concepts and Cases • They began to questioning the concept of state as the main referent object - who or what is to be secured? • Set out agenda of CSS in three points: a) referent object b) security more than just a military security c) changed the way how security was studied Evolution of security studies towards regional security - Copenhagen >arry Buzan, Ole Weaver and Jaap de Wilde published book: Security: A New Framework for Analysis Old vs. new concept of security Resolves its incoherence by arguing that the social production of security is sufficiently stable to be treated objectively Concept of sectoral security - military, political, economic, societal, environmental security Concept of analytical levels/categories (international systems, international subsystems, units, subunits and individuals). Concept of regional security complexes (4 basic principles) Concept o Securitization Theory of Regional Security • G Q I 3 p i P ^ i ^ © S c u r i t y complexes (4 basic principles): - Composed of two or more states - Geographically coherent grouping - Mutual security dependency relationship (MSDR) - MSDR deeply embedded, long term not permanent „a group of states whose major security perspectives and concerns are so intertwined that the national security issues of each cannot be adequately analyzed or addressed separately" • Lower level security complex x Higher level security complex • Bufffer zones and states Jnbetween" Copenhagen School - Regional Security Complexes Map 2. Patterns of Regional Security Post-Cold War Security Dimensions Geographical dimension Danger dimension Su bstan sive d i m e ns i on Refe re n ce d i mensio n . 2.1 Dimensions of security. {Source: DAASE 2013: 13) Regional Security Threats • The most prominent regional threats According to Eichler (2009): a) Military threats - regional conflicts, WMD proliferation and armed aggression b) Political threats - terrorism and organized crime, existence of dangerous dictatorial regimes, human rights violations and threats to internal politics by superpowers (NATO, USA, etc). c) Economic threats - instability of world markets, uneven economic development and economic crisis. d) Ecological threats - changes in land and sea use; direct exploitation of natural resources; climate change; pollution and invasive species. Regional Security Threats - WMD NPT 1968 - the NPT non-nuclearweapon states agree never to acquire nuclear weapons and the NPT nuclearweapon states in exchange agree to share the benefits of peaceful nuclear technology and to pursue nuclear disarmament aimed at the ultimate elimination of their nuclear arsenals. 2023 ESTIMATED GLOBAL NUCLEAR WARHEAD INVENTORIES The world's nuclear-armed states possess a combined total of over 12,500 nuclear warheads; nearly 90% belong to Russia and the United States. Approximately 9,600 warheads are in military service, with the rest awaiting dismantlement. Source: Hans M Krister sen Mart Korda, Eliana Reynolds, and tCate Kohn, federation of American Scientis' US. Department of State, and the Stocfrtiolm International Peace Researdi Institute. Updated: June2023 Arms Control Association Regional Security Threats - Conflicts • An armed conflict is a contested incompatibility that concerns government or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in one calendar year. • Conflict: clash between two actors who have incompatible interests. • Necessary features of conflict according to Holsti (1991): a) Actors of the conflict b) Area of the clash (incompatibility) c) Tension d) Conflict behavior • Conflict vs. War vs. Civil war Regional Security Threats - Conflicts I T h e W o r l d a t W a r i n 2 0 2 3 Countries in which armed clashes between state forces and/or rebels were reported in 2023* * As of April 28 Source: The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project š t a t i s t a A R M E D C O N F L I C T S B Y N U M B E R OF E S T I M A T E D C O N F L I C T - R E L A T E D F A T A L I T I E S , 2023 Major armed conflicts with 10 000 or more conflict-related fatalities in 2023 High-intensity armed conflicts with 1000 to 9999 conflictrelated fatalities in 2023 Low-intensity armed conflicts with 25 to 999 conflict-related fatalities in 2023 Regional Security Threats - Terrorism Regional Security Threats - Terrorism RANK COUNTRY SCORE RANK CHANGE RANK COUNTRY SCORE RANK CHANGE RANK COUNTRY SCORE RANK CHANGE ~~1 i ft Burkina Faso 8.571 T 1 28 # Thailand 4.219 15 55 Spain 1.669 1 5 2 ift Israel 8.M3 f 24 29 0 Turkiye 4.168 18 56 Lebanon 1.562 15 3 \1 Mali 7.998 T 1 30 _ United States of America 4.141 11 57 Australia 1475 12 4 i1 Pakistan 7.916 1 3 30 _ United States of America 4.141 11 58 Italy 1447 14 5 ( ft Syria 7.690 «-» 31 Indonesia 3.993 17 59 Central African 1.445 12 6 11 Afghanistan 7.825 15 32 Bangladesh 3317 r i 4 59 Republic 1.445 12 7 V J U ^ (UNDETERMINED) 89 Several explosive-laden drones killed possibly as many as 100 soldieis and civilians and wounded at least 240 others in an attack on a military college graduation ceremony at the Horns Military Academy, Horns, Horns Governorale on 5 October. No group had claimed responsi bility at the time of writing, but jihadists and anti-regime groups operate n the area. 4 COUNFRY PAKISTAN PROVINCE: K H Y B E R - P A K H T U N K H W A DEATHS A suicide bomber killed at least 8A people and wounded at least 2-00 others at the Police Lines Mosque, Peshawar. Peshawar district, Khyber Pakhtunfchwa province at around 1340hrs on 30 DAFE 30/1/2023 TEHR IKE-TALIBAN E R O U F PAKISTAN (TTP) 84 January. Several hundred police officers were reportedly at the scene when the bomb exploded. No group had claimed the attack at the time of wiitingJ but based on the target and location. Tehuk-e Taliban Pakistan OTP} was probably responsible. E COUNTRY BURKINA F A S O PROVINCE S A H E L DEATHS Gunmen killed at least 71 soldiers, injured three, and abducted an unconfirmed number in an ambush on the Oursi and Oeou axis, Oudalan province, 5ahel region on 17 February. Security forces DAFE 17/2/2023 GROUP ISLAMIC STATE (IE) 71 claimed that they killed 160 assailants in counter-offensive operations. The Islamic State (15) claimed responsibility. 6 COUNTRY BURKINA F A S O D V i 26/2/2023 REGION E S T GROUP JNIM DEATHS 70 Gunmen killed at least 50 civilians in an attack on Partiaga, Tapoa province. Est region on the night of 26 February. The assailants set fire to the town halt the gendarmerie post, telephone poles and other structures. No group had claimed responsibility for the attack at the time of writing, but a local social media outlet said that Jamaat Nusrat Al-lslam wal Muslimeen (JNIM) was probably responsible. 7 COUNFRY BURKINA F A S O REGION C E N T R E - N O R D DEATHS Gunmen killed at least 70 civilians in Zaongo, Namentenga province. Centre-Nord region on the evening of 5 November. No group had claimed responsibility at the time or" writing, but jihadists operate in the area. The European Union called for an investigation into the killings after some suggestions- that state-lin ked groups may have been responsible.DAFE 5/11/2023 G R O U P J I H A D I S T (UNDETERMINED) 70 Gunmen killed at least 70 civilians in Zaongo, Namentenga province. Centre-Nord region on the evening of 5 November. No group had claimed responsibility at the time or" writing, but jihadists operate in the area. The European Union called for an investigation into the killings after some suggestions- that state-lin ked groups may have been responsible. 8 COUNFRY MALI REGION G A O DEATHS Fighters of Islamic State (IS} and Jamaat N u-srat Al -Islam wal M u slimeen (JN IMj1 clashed near Tin Fadimata village, Gao cercle, Geo region on the night of" 1 March. At the time of writing, there was no information on the number of casualties and on who started the fighting, but JNIM claimed to have killed at least 60 15 fighters.DAFE 1/3/2023 GROUP ISLAMIC STATE (IS) 80 Fighters of Islamic State (IS} and Jamaat N u-srat Al -Islam wal M u slimeen (JN IMj1 clashed near Tin Fadimata village, Gao cercle, Geo region on the night of" 1 March. At the time of writing, there was no information on the number of casualties and on who started the fighting, but JNIM claimed to have killed at least 60 15 fighters. 9 COUNFRY NIGERIA E O R N C DEATHS Islamic State West Africa (ISWA*) gunmen attacked Boko Haram fighters near Lake Chad in Borno DAFE ig/B/2023 1 C ISLAMIC STATE W E S T G R O U F AFRICA (ISWA) 80 state at around 1200hrs on 19 August. Boko Haram retaliated, and 100 fighters were killed between the sides. Boko Haram reportedly lost more fighters than ISWA. 10 COUNFRY BURKINA F A S O PROVINCE N O R D DEATHS Gunmen killed at least 60 soldiers and wounded at least a dozen others in an attack on military barracks in Souli, Solle department, Loroum province, Nord region at around llOOhrs on 24 December. No group had claimed responsibility at the time of writing, but local media outlets reported that Jamaat Nusrat Al-lslam wal Muslimeen (JNIM) was responsible.DAFE 24/12/2023 GROUP JNIM 60 Gunmen killed at least 60 soldiers and wounded at least a dozen others in an attack on military barracks in Souli, Solle department, Loroum province, Nord region at around llOOhrs on 24 December. No group had claimed responsibility at the time of writing, but local media outlets reported that Jamaat Nusrat Al-lslam wal Muslimeen (JNIM) was responsible. Regional Security Threats - Terrorism Rank ORGANISATION DEATHS ATTACKS INJURED 1 Islamic State (IS) 1045 410 644 2 Al-Shabaab 784 315 1016 3 Islamic State - Khorasan Province (ISK) 493 141 S32 4 Jamaat Nusrat Al-lslam wal Muslimeen [JNIMJ 279 77 215 1 Balochistan Liberation Army tBLA} 233 30 113 6 Islamic State West Africa (ISWA) 219 65 113 7 Boko Ha ram 204 64 51 • Tehiik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) 117 90 1B7 9 Islamic State - Sinai Province 71 27 32 1 Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) 57 40 16 Hamas JNIM • Al-Shabaab Islamic State ' All Other Groups 2007 2009 2011 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 5 2017 2019 2D21 2 0 2 3 Regional Security Threats - Global Organized Crime Index Criminality indicators CA2 C*3 CA4 CRIMINAL ACTORS • CA1. Mafia-style groups A CA2. Criminal networks A CA3. State-embedded actors A CA4. Foreign actors A CA5. Private sector actors CRIMINAL MARKETS • C M 1 . Human trafficking • CM2. Human smuggling Extortion and protection racketeering • CM4. Arms trafficking CMS. Trade in counterfeit goods • C M 6 I lllcit trade in excisable goods • CM7. Flora a imes • CM8. Fauna crimes • CM9. Non-renewable resource crimes • CM10. Heroin trade » CM11. Cocaine trade • CM12. Cannabis trade • CM13. Synthetic drug trade ••• CM14. Cyber-dependent crimes • CM15. Financial crimes Scoring thresholds - criminality 1 2 3 4 5 DNON-EXISTENT TO LITTLE INFLUENCE MODERATE INFLUENCE Regional Security Threats - Global Organized Crime Index Criminality scores by continent #1 ?1 »5 ASIA AfHICA AMERICAS EUROPt OCEANIA REGION CRIMINALITY CRIMINAL MARKETS CRIMINAL ACTORS RESILIENCE ASIA 5.47 +0,18 S.41 +0.20 5.53 +0.15 4.34 -0.12 AFRICA 5.25 +O.0S 5.05 +0.11 5.45 +0.05 3.B5 +0.05 AMERICAS 5.20 +0.13 4.89 +0.19 5.51 +0.08 4.80 -0.03 EUROPE 4.74 +0.26 4.60 +0.40 4.88 +0.12 6.27 +0.04 OCEANIA 3.23 +0.16 3.28 +0.30 5,19 +0.02 5.55 +0,09 1. MYANMAR 6.15 + 0.S6 2. COLOMBIA 7.7S + 0.09 5. MEXICO 7.57 113.01 4. PARAGUAY 7.52 + 0.82 5. CONGO. DEM. REP 7.35 •0.40 6. NIGERIA 7.28 +0.13 7. SOUTH AFRICA 7,18 + 0.56 a. IRAQ 7.13 + 0.0S 9. AFGHANISTAN 7.10 + 0.02 9. LEBANON 7,10 + 0.34 11. ECUADOR 7.07 + 0.82 11. SYRIA 7.07 t0.23 13 HONDURAS /.os + 0.08 14. IRAN 7.01 - 0 0 7 14. TURKEY 7.01 + 0.14 16. KENYA 7.02 + 0.07 17. PANAMA 6.98 10.31 1R. I IRYA fi.M +r>3R 1 4 P.J-5SIA 6.87 + 0.63 30. CAMBODIA 6.85 +1.03 GLOBAL AVERAGE 5.03 +0.16 4.aB +0.22 5.19 +0.09 4.S1 -0.00 Regional Security Threats - Dictatorial regimes Democracy Index 2023 Only 8% of the world's population lives in a "full democracy" Source: EIU. Regional Organisations • „Regional institutions are the regimes or formal organizations with membership limited to a specific geographical region or possibly two or more neighboring regions." • Three types of regional organizations according to Kusztal : - Multi-tasking organizations - Organizations with economic profile - Defensive alliances m Regional organisations vs. regimes m „International organizations are generally seen to be more formally specified institutions, with a secretariat, permanent office, and the like. International regimes have been defined as sets of principles, norms, rules, and decisions upon which actors' expectations converge (Krasner 1983)." m Security organisations: - Cooperative security - Collective security - Collective defense Regional organizations with security functions Africa African Union (AU) 2ÜÜ1 Common Market for Eastern and 1994 Southern Africa (COMESA) Community of Sahel-Saharan 1998 States (CEN-SAD) East African Community (EAC) 1999 Economic arid Monetary 199K Community of Central Africa (CEMAC) Economic Community of West 1975 African States (ECOWAS) Intergovernmental Authority on 1996 Development (IGAD) Mano River Union 1973 Southern African Development 1992 Community (SADC) Middle East Arab League 1945 Arab Maghreb Union 19S9 Council of Arab Economic Unity 1964 Gulf Cooperation Council (GCQ 1981 Organization of the Islamic 1971 Conference (OlC) Asia Australia, New Zealand, United 1951 States (ANZUS) Security Treaty Asia-Pacific Economic 19JW Cooperation (APEC) Association of South East Asian 1967 Nations (ASEAN): ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) 1994 ASEAN Plus Three (APT) 1997 Conference on Interaction and 1992 Confidence-building measures inAsia(CICA) Economic Cooperation 19S5 Organization (ECO) Pacific Community 1947 Pacific Islands Forum 1971 Shanghai Cooperation 2001 Organization (SCO) South Asian Association for 19S5 Regional Co-operation (SAARC) Regional organizations with security functionsEurope and Euro-Atlantic Arctic Council 1996 Baltic Council 1993 Barents Euro-Arctic Council 1993 (BEAC) Organization of the Black Sea 1992 Economic Cooperation (BSEC) Central European Initiative (CE1) 1989 Collective Security Treaty 2003 Organization ( C S T Ö ) Commonwealth of Independent 1991 States (CIS) Council of the Baltic Sea States 1992 (CBSS) Council of Europe 1949 European Union (EU) 1951 North Atlantic Treaty 1949 Organization: Euro-Atlantic Partnership 1997 Council (EAPCf Nordic Council 1952 Organization for Security and 1973 Co-operation in Europe: Stability Pact for South Eastern 1999 Europe Southeast European Cooperative 1996 Initiative (SECT) Visegrad Group (V4) 1991 Western European Union (WEU) 1954 Americas Andean Community of Nations 1969 (Andean Pact) Caribbean Community 1973 (CARICOM) Centra] American Integration 199] System (SICA) Latin American Integration 1980 Association (LAIA) MERCOSUR (Southern Common 1991 Market) North American Free Trade 1994 Agreement (NAFTA) 0 rgan izat ion of A meric an 1948 States (OAS) Rio Group 1987 Regional Organisations/Regimes Arab League . - Cairo 1945, 22 member states / \ S I 9 - „ o f r a v i / c / o s e r # 7 e relations between member states and co-ordinate collaboration between them" - Council of the Arab League, Joint Defense Council, General Secretariat (Secretary General), Economic Council Australia, New Zealand, United States Security Treaty (ANZUS) - 1951 trilateral agreement - New Zealand was suspended from ANZUS 1986-2007 - AUKU S - Trilateral Security Partnership Between Australia, U.K. and U.S. Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) - 1961 - Association of Southeast Asia (ASA), 1967 ASEAN Declaration, 10 member states - ASEAN's primary objectives are: "(1) to accelerate economic growth, social progress and cultural development in the region and (2) to promote regional peace and stability through abiding respect for justice and the rule of law in the relationship among countries in the region and adherence to the principles of the United Nations Charter.,, ASEAN Structure ASEAN SUMMIT ASEAN Coordination Council I—I I in C • • c < LU Reporting Line Coordination Line ' C o. I E E o (j T' i ASEAN Political Security Community Council ASEAN Economic Community Council ASEAN Socio-Cultural CommujnityCouncil ASEAN Foreign Ministers VI e e tin; JZ 6 ASEAN Sectoral Body 14 ASEAN Sectoral Body IAI 4r ASEAN Foundation Senior Officials Sectoral Meeting 17 ASEAN Sectoral Body Senior Officials Sectoral Meeting Senior Officials Sectoral Meeting [P n) fU s 01 V I 2 ér Regional Organisations - Africa Africa Union (AU) - 1963 Organization of African Unity (OAU), 2002 -AU, 55 member states - Main administrative capital of the African Union is in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia - Multiple goals: Accelerate the political and socio-economic integration of the continent; Promote and defend African common positions on issues of interest to the continent and its peoples; Encourage international cooperation, etc. South African Development Community (SADC) - Southern African Development Coordination Conference transformed into SADC in 1992 - Gaborone, Botswana, 16 member states - „to achieve economic development, peace and security, and growth, alleviate poverty, enhance the standard and quality of life of the peoples of Southern Africa, and support the socially disadvantaged through Regional Integration." Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) - 1975, 15 member states, Abuja Nigeria - „The aim of the Community is to promote co-operation and integration, leading to the establishment of an economic union in West Africa in order to raise the living standards of its peoples, and to maintain and enhance economic stability, foster relations-among Member States and contribute to the progress and development of (he African continent." - The Economic Community of West African States Monitoring Group (ECOMOG) was a West African multilateral armed force established by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). 1990-2005. The Institutional Structure of the African Union AU Structure Legislative Judicial Executive 2003- 2004, African Union Mission in Burundi (AMIB) 2004- 2007, African Union Mission in Sudan (AMIS) 2007-2021, United Nations-African Union Mission in Darfur (UNAMID) 2007-2021, African Union Mission to Somalia (AMISOM) 2022-Ongoing, African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) 2008, 2008 invasion of Anjouan, also known as Operation Democracy in Comoros. 2011-2018, Fight against the Lord's Resistance Army insurgency through the African Unionled Regional Task Force in Uganda, South Sudan and the CAR, 2013-Ongoing, African-led International Support Mission to Mali (AFISMA), organized by ECOWAS. 2013-Ongoing, African-led International Support Mission to the Central African Republic (MISCA) Court of Justice Africa Court of Human & People's Rights Executive Council Peace & Security Council Specialized technical committees I I I Commissioi Financial institutions Permanent Representativ Economic, Soc & Cultural Council Adapted from ISS 2020 Regional Organisations/Regimes - America and Europe Organisation of American States (OAS) - 1948 - Washington D. C, 35 member states - Jhe premier regional forum for political discussion, policy analysis and decision-making in Western Hemisphere affairs. The OAS brings together leaders from nations across the Americas to address hemispheric issues and opportunities." North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) x Agreement between the United States of America, the United Mexican States, and Canada (USMCA) - 1994, agreement signed by Canada, Mexico, and the United States that created a trilateral trade bloc in North America - 2020 - free trade agreement between Canada, Mexico, and the United States Visegrad Group (V4) - 1991, Czech Republic, Poland, Slovakia and Hungary - To advance co-operation in military, economic, cultural and energy affairs - International Visegrad Fund, Non-institutionalized, regular meeting of top executives (Presidency lasts one year) Thank you for your attention