Resolution of Conflict in AJIBOLAND A monarchical State with a population of 75 million, Ajiboland is one of the most ecologically and demographically diverse countries on the earth. Ajiboland’s two major urban centers are situated along its nearly 100-mile coastline on the Sea of Ajibola. The reigning family of Ajiboland has a reputation for committing serious abuses against the population. Fighting erupted in Ajiboland three years ago. What started as a dispute between government forces and local protestors quickly grew into multifaceted armed conflict involving shifting alliances among multiple States and non-states organized armed groups (OAGs). Today, war engulfs not only Ajiboland but also two states near the Ajiboalnd. News reports suggest that at least eight OAGs are operating across different parts of Ajiboland and neighboring countries. Despite efforts by a Special Representative of the United Nations (UN) Secretary General, repeated attempts to negotiate peace have failed. Already dire, the humanitarian situation in Ajiboland is exacerbated by a combination of hostilities, political infighting, and blockages of humanitarian supplies. Sixty-eight percent of population faces extreme food insecurity. Fiftythree percent of primary schools have been shuttered, and nearly a quarter of the medical treatment centers have ceased operations. Almost two years ago, a well-funded and well-organized group calling itself Gevorgian Association for Rights and Mobility (GARM) seized large swaths of territory in Ajiboland. News reports suggest that GARM receives extensive support from some external states and wealthy regional businesspersons aligned with the ideology of GARM. GARM rejects the legitimacy of the government of Ajiboland and purports to be the territory’s only rightful sovereign. Today, GARM de facto controls more than a million square miles of territory and de facto governs 2,5 million people. UN-human-rights-monitoring bodies have documented extensive human rights abuses by GARM, including torture and summary execution of purported non-adherents to GARM values. Independent non-governmental organizations (NGOs) allege that GARM has committed numerous violations of laws of war, including attacks against innocent civilians and against hospitals (which GARM says were legitimate targets because wounded government terrorists were being treated there), as well as forcibly enlisting children under 15 years old into GARM’s military wing. The UN Security Council is considering sanctioning GARM and its leaders under the Council’s anti-terrorism measures. Two decades ago, Bennoun, Cancado and the Donoghue Federation (DF) formed a military and political alliance called the Organization for Regional Security Cooperation (ORSC). Shortly after the government of Ajiboland requested that all “peace-loving” nations aid Ajiboland against GARM, the ORSC began to provide various forms of support to the government of Ajiboland. Bennoun boasts are one of the world’s most well-equipped militaries. Bennoun has permanent seat on the UN Security Council. The DF prides itself on promoting international criminal justice and the rule of law. Cancado maintains an extensive military and security apparatus as well. The Elaraby Republic (ER) is a highly independent regional economic, military and political power. It considers GARM threat not only to the government of Ajiboland but also to its own government. The ER does not agree with Ajiboland's government policy, so it supports small armed non-state actors, namely the New Order Organisation (NOO), which is not a major player in the national conflict. The Fabela Party (FP) exercises de facto control over territory spanning part of Ajiboland. For nearly three decades, the FP has aspired to become an independent nation. The FP has committed to abide by international human rights standards and is generally recognized as one the only democratic entities in the region. The FP has pledged to terminate the threat posed by GARM terrorists. Despite protests from Ajiboland, Bennoun and Cancado have long provided arms, training, intelligence and mid-air refueling, and other forms of support to the FP. Parties of the Negotiation a) Government of Ajiboland • The head of the state is the queen originating from the Ajabi family. Her family is part of a single state party and controls parliament and the government. b) GARM • A military faction consisting of several armed non-state actors. The organization is led by wealthy oligarchs who want to overthrow the ruling Ajabi family. c) Fabela Party • The FP is a democratic party that aspires to gain independence in the Fabela region. It also wants to end the war. d) Organization for Regional Security Cooperation • The ORSC disagrees with Ajiboland's government policy. However, of all the actors, the current government seems the most acceptable. ORSC supports Fabela's independence. e) Representatives of UN • The main goal is to end the conflict and punish war crimes. f) Government of Elaraby Republic • The only fully democratic state in the region. It wants to create a completely new democratic government in Ajiboland, so it supports a small opposition group, the NOO. The ER believes in the idea of spreading democracy. Negotiation Manual The aim of the whole negotiations should be a peace plan. All parties should agree on an ending the violence and conditions for an end to the conflict. You should make a peace plan. The peace plan must include what the new state system will be - democratic, authoritarian or quasidemocratic. Will all freedoms be guaranteed in the new state or will something be restricted? What will be the party system, what will be the electoral system, who has the right to vote and be elected. What will be the territory of the new state? Will the new state be part of any international organizations, if so, what and why? Important: Do not reveal all cards immediately. Try not to tell the other parties at the beginning what your maximum or minimum requirements are. Try to reach the maximum requirements and use the minimum as a last resort. The peace plan should include answers to the following questions: a) What will be the territory of new state? / What form of administration will be applied? federation, confederation, or unitary state? (Independence of Fabela region?) b) What will be the political system in terms of democracy? c) What will be the electoral and party system? d) Will war crimes be punished? How? e) How will Disarmament, Demobilization and Reintegration take place? Timetable of the seminar 1 Preparation Phase – 10min • Division of roles, discussion of strategies. 1st Phase – 10 min • Group strategy discussion. 2nd Phase – 10 min • Formal introduction of participants and their proposals. 3rd Phase – 30 min • Informal discussion, gaining information to determine the profile of other parties. Filling tables. 4th Phase – 20min • Group preparation of a peace plan Timetable of the seminar 2 5th Phase – 10min • Group preparation of a peace plan 6th Phase - 20 min • Formal discussion, introduction of individual plans, reactions and comments on the plans. 7th Phase - 20min • Incorporation of comments into plans, revision of plans and informal discussions. 8th Phase - 20 min • Introduction of revised plans, Vote on the adoption of peace plans. All parties must agree. 9th Phase - 10min • Revealing information about groups, revealing strategies, final discussion Table to fill during the class Aktér Primární, sekundární anebo terciální aktér Co požaduje? Má nějaké skryté zájmy? Jaké jsou minimální požadavky (minimum s čím se spokojí)? Co je hlavní překážkou mírové dohody? Vláda Ajiboland GARM Fabela ORSC UN/OSN Vláda Elaraby