EAST AFRICA (HORN
OF AFRICA SECURITY
SUBCOMPLEX)
Lucie Konečná
BSSn4457 Regional Security Complexes
12/12/2024
Map 2. Patterns of Regional Security Post-Cold War
Eritrea
^ A s m a r a
^ d d i s A b a b a
Ethiopia
Djjftputi
Somalilan
T^f H a r g e i s a
Somalia
a Kenya
Rwanda
Burundi Seychelles
E a s t A f r i c a
• Horn of Africa: Eritrea,
Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia,
Djibouti.
• Great Lakes Region:
Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda,
Tanzania, DRC.
Madagascar
Regional organisati
Facts about EA
Around 204 million inhabitants
FSI (FFP) - Somalia (1s t
), Djibouti (48t h
), Eritrea (26t h
),
Kenya (36th
) Ethiopia (12t h
)
Africa m a p of K o p p e n c l i m a t e c l a s s i f i c a t i o n
Full democracy
• 9.0-10.0
• B.0 - 9.0
Flawed democracy
• 7.0 - 8.0
5.0-7.0
Hybrid regime
5.0 - 6.0
4.0 - 5.0
Authoritarian regime
I 3.0 - 4.0
2.0 3 0
• 0 - 2.0
No data
Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit.
** 1
• Equatorial climate (Af)
• Monsoon climate (Am)
• Tropical savanna climate (Aw)
•Warm desert climate (BWh)
• C o l d desert climate (BWk)
•Warm semi-arid climate (BSh)
• C o l d semi-arid climate (BSk)
•Warm mediterranean climate (Caa)
Temperate mediterranean climate (Cab)
Humid subtropical climate {Cwa)
• Humid subtropical climate/
Subtropical oceanic highland climate (Cwb)
Warm oceanic climate/
Humid subtropical climate (Cfa)
•Temperate oceanic climate (Cfb)
Form of Government
Somalia
18 mil inhabitants, Sunni Muslim (Islam)
Independence 1960
Ogaden war 1977-1978
The fall of the Barre regime
and the beginning of the Civil War 1991
The Islamic Courts Union - Al-Shabaab
C L A N S
• Dir
O Tsaaq
• Darod
O Kawiya
• Rahanweyn
• Digll
SOMALIA ERITREA YEMEN
SUDAN
Gut/ ofAden
IHordio
F
1
I
\
E T H I O P I A
Addis Abiba,"
d ; i e o l t t i Bmaso
ODjibouti City •
©Berber! PUN TL AND
oBurao *Gafdo
SOMALILAND
Barsma
9
Jijiga
4- Oj>:nlm
0<
0<
UGANDA
Kampala
KENYA
' 'TOO k m
•250 miles
«Obbij
Dolo
»BcH Huen
» N f l i r o ä
Wlandf-ra* - °Lu£b
o GiDftar
G Mogadishu
£ *Merca
Liboi-o »Gelib
•Kisimayc (ChiamaJoj
I ~: i j • i ai i Jslülldi
t\'I)tA\>
OCLA y
L . i | ' . j : i " I > i
Ethiopia
126 mil inhabitants, Ethiopian Orthodox 43.8%, Muslim 31.3%, Protestant
22.8%
Oromo 34.4%, Amhara 27%, Somali 6.2%, Tigray (Tigrinya) 6.1%
Ethiopian-Italian War (1935-36), occupation of Italy until 1941
The overthrow of the emperor, the new regime 1974
Ogaden war 1977-1978, Civil War 1974-1991
EPRDF - Oromo Democratic Party (ODP), Amhara Democratic Party
(ADP)Southern Ethiopian People's Democratic Movement (SEPDM) and Tigray
People's Liberation Front (TPLF)
WORLD
Ogaden National Liberation Front
Oromo Liberation Front rl
Eritrean-Ethiopian War 1998-2000
Tigrayan People's Liberation Front
(Conflict 2020-2022)
Since April 2023 - ongoing conflict in Amhara Amhara
Fano Popular Movement
Kenya
55 mil inhabitants, Christian 85.5%, Muslim 10.9%
Mau Mau rebellion, 1963 Independence
Post-election violence 2007-2008
Post-election violence 2017
Elections 2022-William Ruto United
Democratic Alliance (UDA)
Kenya ethnic composition (2019)
18.0%
5.2%
5.7%
5.8%
17.1%
9.8%
© Encyclopaedia Brhannica. Inc.
14.3%
13.4%
10.7%
K i k u y u
L u h y a
• K a l e n j i n
L u o
i K a m b a
K e n y a n S o m a l i
i G u s i i ( K i s i i )
M i j i k e n d a
other
Eritrea
4 mil inhabitants, Christians 50%, Sunni Muslim 48%
Ethiopian-Eritrean Federation 1952
Independence 1993
Conflicts with neighboring states
There have never been national elections in Eritrea since independence in 1993
Djibouti
1 mil inhabitants, Sunni Muslim 94%, Christian 6% (mainly foreign-born
residents)
Somali (Issa) 60%, Afar 35%, other 5% (mostly Yemeni Arab, also French,
Ethiopian, and Italian)
Independence 1977
Civil War 1991-1994, People's Rally for Progress x From
Unity and Democracy (FRUD) y eritrea
\
Ismail OmarGuelleh 1999-2023
Red Sea
ETHIOPIA
'•Balho
Lake
Assalty
'Yoboki
Khör'AngarV
DJIBOUTI
Obock
T a d j o u r a . ^ ^
T e r r o r i s m i n E a s t A f r i c a
Jabha East Africa/Islamic State in East Africa
Al-Shabaab
Ansar al-Sunna
Eritrean Islamic Jihad (EIJ) /Eritrean Islamic Salvation Movement
Ginbot 7, Ogaden National Liberation Front, Oromo Liberation Front (end in
2018)
5? TOR^^ESCAL
S H A B A A B - L I N K E D V I O L E N C E I N S O M A L I A
Allied D^r
Mogadishu
• Violent events linked to al Shabaab (2022)
I Al Shabaab controlled
I I ATMISand Federal Goverment controlled
I Contested or unclear
EH Territory controlled by Puntland security forces
I Territory controlled by the security forces of the
autonomous region of Somaliland
RANK COUNTRY SCORE
RANK
CHANGE
1 ^ Burkina Faso 8.571 t 1
2 % Israel a.113 t 24
3 # Mali f 1
4 9 Pakistan 7516 T 3
B • Syria 7.B90 t-t
6 9 Afghanistan 7.625 1 5
7 # Somalia 7.S14 1 4
a # Nigeria 7.575 «—»
9 # Myanmar 7.536
10 0 Niger 7J274
n • Iraq 7078 15
12 % Cameroon 6.98 11
13
^ Democratic Republic
of the Congo
6.514 t 1
1« A India 6324 11
15 # Mozambique 6267 1 3
16 0 Colombia 6186 11
17 • Chile 5.679 11
18 # Kenya 5.616 11
19 # Philippines 5.383 11
20 • Egypt 5.221 1 3
21 Chad 4.987 11
22 # Palestine 4.966 1 6
23 % Yemen 4.951 11
24 Denin 4.898 1 3
26 • Togo 4.67 T5
26 Iran 4464 11
27 # Uganda 4377 f 22
TERRORISM
Deadliest Groups of 2022
Rank ORGANISATION DEATHS ATTACKS INJURED
1 Islamic State (IS) 1045 410 644
2 Al-Shabaab 784 315 1016
3 Islamic State - Khorasan Province (ISK) 498 141 832
I Jamaat Nusiat Al-lslam wal Mushmeen (JNIM) 279 77 215
5 Balochistan Liberation Army (BLAJ 233 30 113
6 Islamic State West Africa (ISWA) 219 65 118
7 Boko Ha ram 204 64 51
3 Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (HP) 137 90 IS?
9 Islamic State - Sinai Province 71 27 32
10 Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOEJ 57 40 16
Piracy in Horn of AfricaGulf of Aden, Guardafui Channel and Somali Sea.
Civil war in Somalia - illegal fishing on the Somali seaboard and ships began
dumping industrial.
Most of the attacks in the Horn of Africa took place outside territorial waters.
Expiry of the United Nations Security Council's (UNSC) counter-piracy
Resolution 2608 (2022).
IGAD - Intergovernmental Authority on Development - CEWARN.
Djibouti Code of Conduct 2009.
Si
• Piracy attacks
Si 0 500 1000 Km
1 1 1
Somali pirate attacks, 2008-2018
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
MecTiterranSÍi TO,ft .
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Pirate ship sunk - i
Y E M E N J L / G u f / o r
Aden
S O M A L I A "
E T H I O P I A D E y l
H a r a r d h e r e D
Hadiboh
Mogadishu^ •
K E N Y A
indián
Ocean
Mombasa •
r
I M ) I A \ c)c:i-:,vs
I Source: European Naval Force • • H
SOCOTEU Higghler
MorniULlns T A N Z A N I A
kilometres
Sirius Star
hijacked
Source: 1MB piracy centre. Jan-Hov OS
Djibouti Code of Conduct
Piracy
EAST AFRICA EAST AFRICA EAST AFRICA
PIRACY/ROBBERY INCIDENTS
BY LOCATION (2017)
[24] International
[22] Territorial
[S] Unknown
PIRACY/ROBBERY INCIDENTS
BY VESSEL TYPE {2017}
• [25] Merchant Vessel
• [11] Tanker
• [4] Bulk Carrier
[3] Container
H [3] Fishing Vessel
• [2] Dhow
[4] Other
[2] Unknown
PIRACY/ROBBERY INCIDENTS
INVOLVING WEAPONS (2017)
[32] Unarmed
[9] Guns
[9] Armed, Unspecified
[3] Heavy Weapons/RPG
[1] Knives
Piracy Worldwide
C H A R T (': Total incidents as per regions of the world January - December 21)23
EAST ASIA INDIAN SUB-CONT AMERICAS AFRICA
Operation Atalanta and Ocean Shield
• Other operations in EA - Combined Task Force 150, Combined Task Force 151,
Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy participation, Operation Copper.
• Operation Atalanta, formally European Union Naval Force (EU NAVFOR)
Somalia (2008-present).
• Atalanta tasks:
•Protects vessels of the World Food Programme (WFP), African Union Mission in
Somalia (AMISOM) and other vulnerable shipping;
•Deters and disrupts piracy and armed robbery at sea;
•Monitors fishing activities off the coast of Somalia;
•Supports other EU missions and international organizations working to strengthen
maritime security and capacity in the region.
• Operation Ocean Shield (2009-2016).
East and Horn of
Africa and the
Great Lakes
SD.ILIL-'II Africa
West and Central
Africa
Refugees 4.717.470 733,247 1.433,350
People fn refugee-like
situations1 Total
refugees and
people in refugee-like
situations 4.717.470 7S3.247 1.438.350
Asylum seekers2
195,753 239,054 57,664
Returned refugees* 342.193 9W 46,775
IDPs of concern to
UNHCR4 11,636.769 6JS7.219 7.270,520
Returned IDPsh
2,095.357 1.041.363 706,507
Stateless persons6 103,281 - 931.231
Others of concern to
UNHCR' 23,339 36.520 153.E3E
Venezuelans displaced
abroad" - - TOTAL
19.164,667 8.438,313 10,659,935
• Refugees
• Asylum-seekers
• Internally displaced people (IDP:
Stateless persons
• Returnees (refugees and IDPs)
Others of concern
• Venezuelans displaced abroad
INFLUX OF REFUGEES
Influx of Refugees
• Host country - Uganda (1,4 mil), Sudan (1,1 mil), Ethiopia (850
thousand),Kenya (600 thousand), Tanzania (250 thousand)
CHART i I PLANNING FIGURES: 102.6 million people of concern in 2022
PLANNING FIGURES
Uiit: million
Influx of Refugees
SOUTH SUDAN
ETHIOPIA
U G A N D A
KENYA
NAIROBI
T A N Z A N I A
MOME
883,546
Registered Refugees
and Asylum-seekers
243,410
Households
7 3 , 0 7 8
\B.6%
73.078 t x l ' t ' d » refugev, prtvkHriiy _
registered as living i n « m p $ h*ve
•-•:!-.! In urban i. r-i •.
confirmed figure represents «
•:-!•- ' • i > -1 8.000 refugee*, followI
ing t h e conclusion O* 3 compnehenwvr
v r r i f K * l i o n exercise n>» 11.w.i ifi> H I P Hi ii»nj I irintn antf [•» i.wnir<ii Tin u m i». IHI*J IJTTVMJniinmii i annf>in i 6
1 Countries of origin 1 1 Refugees per location 1
Total refugees and
asylum-seekers
Total refugees and
asylum-seekers
£ Ol.Tr- SUDAN
DfiCOMSD ^ ^
8URIK» I n J I B " "
1,450,317
•
SOMALIA | r .
RWANDA | i %
OTHERS | r »
SOUTH SUDAN
233,959 1 2 2 2 8 6
5.562 -
S8.029
•vi
K '."54.530
215,736 ' A
" H ~ .1
DEMOCRAT C
REPUBLIC
OF THE CONGO
-" 121,722»... r- r*J** - A * * v
\mS" ^lY^ A UNITED
•-'•-Af , / X REPUBLIC OF
J \ TANZANIA
LEGEND
Saue« n u > M « r r « M l H
Negative
Impacts of
Refugeeism
Economical impacts - influence on food prices,
influence on the reduction of wages of local residents,
Influence on the rise in housing and rental prices and
direct state expenditure on refugees.
Social impacts - internal displacement of persons,
social inequalities between refugees and local
people, ethnic tension.
Environmental impacts - increase in the slums,
pollution or depletion of water, deforestation, soil
degradation.
Political-security impacts - increase in terrorism,
increase in trafficking and crime, bilateral tensions
between neighboring countries.
a) Attacks between sending state and refugees (The
violence occurs between refugees and government of sending
state)
Refugee-
Related
Political
Violence
b) Attacks between receiving state and refugees (The
violence occurs between refugees and government of
receiving state)
c) Ethnic or factual violence among refugees (The violence
occurs between groups of refugees)
d) Internal violence within receiving state (The violence
occurs between refugees and local population of receiving
state)
e) Interstate war or unilateral intervention (Refugees and
the government of more than one state are involved in
violence)
f) Attacks between refugees and transnational VNSA (The
violence occurs between refugees and transnational VNSA ((
non-state armed groups operating across several countries))
Refugee-Related Political Violence
Zambia
Uganda
Tanzania
Sudan
South Sudan
South Africa
Rwanda
Nigeria
Niger
Libya
Liberia
Kenya
Ghana
Ethiopia
Ivory Coast
Congo
DRC
Chad
Central African Republic
Cameroon
Burundi
Benin
16
14
12
10
9 10 2003-2007 2008-2012 2013-2018
A B " C " D " E " F
T h a n k y o u f o r y o u r
a t t e n t i o n