Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict
Today
Mgr. Zinaida Bechna, Ph.D.
IREn5019 No War, No Peace: Frozen Conflicts in the Caucasus
16.10.2024
The way to
the second
war in N-K
• One of the longest-standing conflicts in the post-Soviet
space.
• The conflict extended beyond Nagorno-Karabakh, with
7 adjacent regions of Azerbaijan (Aghdam, Fizuli,
Jebrail, Zangelan, Kubatli, Lachin, and Kelbajar) falling
under Armenian control.
• Russia's Role Post-War:
• Russia adopted a balancing policy, aiming to
maintain influence over both Armenia and Azerbaijan.
• Armenia's Strategic Alignment:
• Hosted a Russian military base and border
troops.
• Joined the Collective Security Treaty
Organization (CSTO) and the Eurasian
Economic Union (EAEU).
The way to the second war in N-K
The Ukraine crisis in 2014 heightened tensions between Russia and the West, transforming the former Soviet
space into a geopolitical battlefield between these powers.
Azerbaijan’s Strategy:
•Since the early 2000s, President Aliyev has strengthened ties with Russia as part of a strategic effort to regain
control over Nagorno-Karabakh.
• Large-scale arms purchases from Russia, totaling approximately $5 billion.
• Launch of joint economic initiatives, such as the North-South International Transport Corridor
(connecting India with Northern Europe through Iran, Azerbaijan, and Russia).
• Establishment of the Russia-Iran-Azerbaijan energy corridor, enhancing regional cooperation.
Russia’s Role: Moscow saw an opportunity to mediate between Armenia and Azerbaijan, seeking to solidify its
influence in both countries while maintaining a dominant presence in the region.
The 2013 Russian "Lavrov Plan"
Initiative
• Proposal Overview:The Lavrov Plan aimed to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict by returning
the security zone (territories outside the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region) to Azerbaijan.
• Key Provisions:
• Immediate return of 5 regions: Aghdam, Fizuli, Jebrail, Zangelan, and Kubatli to Azerbaijan.
• Return of 2 regions: Lachin and Kelbajar within a year, while maintaining a land corridor
connecting Karabakh to Armenia.
• Deployment of Russian peacekeepers along the new line of contact.
• Russia’s Strategic Goals:Russia sought to increase its influence over Azerbaijan through the
deployment of peacekeepers.
• At the same time, Armenia’s dependence on Russia would grow, solidifying Russia's control in the
region​
Armenian and Azerbaijani Responses & Shifts Post-Velvet Revolution
• Initial Reactions: Both Armenia and Azerbaijan were cautious:
• Azerbaijan: President Aliyev was reluctant to allow the return of Russian troops after the last
Russian soldiers had left in 2012.
• Armenia: Armenians demanded recognition of Artsakh’s independence or unification with
Armenia in exchange for returning the 7 regions.
• Post-2018 Shifts:After the Velvet Revolution of 2018, the new Armenian leadership under Nikol
Pashinyan rejected all pre-revolutionary negotiation frameworks, including the Lavrov Plan.
• Deterioration of Armenia-Russia Relations: Overt anti-Russian actions by Pashinyan’s
government significantly weakened the Armenia-Russia relationship, altering the regional power
balance​
The Velvet Revolution: A Shift in Armenian Society
Discontent with the Prior Government:
•Armenian society was frustrated by corruption, favoritism, excessive bureaucracy, and the dominance of a wealthy
elite.
•These issues led to limited opportunities for social advancement and dissatisfaction among various social groups.
Unified Social Movements:
•The Revolution brought together diverse segments, including young activists, students, and rural residents.
•Pashinyan’s leadership: His clear communication and focus on challenging the political establishment (led by
Sargsyan and the Republican Party) resonated with the people.
•Key goals: Reducing the influence of entrenched elites, fostering economic growth, promoting rule of law, and
ensuring equal opportunities.
A Democratic Shift:
•The Velvet Revolution marked a significant transition towards democracy in an otherwise authoritarian setting.
•The Revolution's legitimacy was rooted in shared values and objectives across civil society, spanning cultural,
economic, professional, and civic domains.
Skirmishes in N-K
• In the years preceding 2014 total fatalities averaged 20–30 (2012 was the worst year, with 34 fatalities reported),
and in several years the number of non-combat-related deaths exceeded those resulting from enemy action.
• Three trends converged to alter this situation: increasing military capabilities on both sides, changing
military intent, and the marginalization of negotiations.
• Both sides’ military capabilities have substantially increased over years in terms of the scale, sophistication
and range of their arsenals. As a proportion of GDP, Armenia and Azerbaijan have emerged as the biggest
military spenders in the post-Soviet space bar Russia.
• Globally, both countries have featured in the top 10 militarized states since 2011; moreover, they are the only pair
of states within the top 10 engaged in active conflict with each other.
The Four days war 2-5 April 2016
• Skirmishes Intensifying Since 2014:
• Following the Nuclear Summit in Washington D.C., violence along the Line of Contact escalated significantly.
• Skirmishes since 2014 signaled the onset of larger conflicts.
• Heavy Use of Weaponry:
• Both sides employed tanks, heavy artillery, rocket launchers, and limited air power.
• Civilian areas were shelled during the fighting, causing significant damage and casualties.
• Strategic Shifts:
• Armenia: Armenian Deputy Defense Minister David Tonoian announced a shift from “static defense” to an active deterrence strategy in response
to the August 2014 skirmishes.
• Azerbaijan: Retired Azerbaijani Colonel Shair Ramaldanov stated that the goal of the April 2016 conflict was to protect civilian settlements,
particularly around Lele Tepe and Talish.
• Outcome of the April Conflict:
• Azerbaijan seized a small piece of territory during the fighting.
• The conflict resulted in several hundred deaths.
The Second Karabakh War
Nagorno-Karabakh’s Outdated Military:
•Relied on 1980s-1990s technology.
•Employed older tanks, lacked modern dynamic defense systems, and had almost no drones.
Azerbaijan’s Modernized Military:
•Benefited from a quarter-century of preparation and oil revenues to buy modern weaponry.
•Azerbaijan received direct support from Turkey, which helped in planning military operations and providing arms.
•Key asset: Bayraktar TB2 drones with high-precision missile and bomb capabilities, giving Azerbaijan air superiority.
Air Superiority and Impact on the War:
•Azerbaijan dominated the airspace throughout the war, quickly neutralizing Karabakh’s Soviet-era anti-aircraft systems.
•In the early days of the war, Azerbaijan destroyed anti-aircraft guns, radars, and missile systems, including parts of the
S-300 and Tor missile systems.
•Drones continued to decimate Karabakh’s military hardware, including tanks, armed personnel carriers, and artillery.
The Second Karabakh War: A
Turning Point
• Timeline: The war, lasting forty-four days from 27 September to 10 November 2020, resulted in
significant casualties and geopolitical shifts.
• Human Toll: Thousands of soldiers from both Armenia and Azerbaijan lost their lives in the
conflict.
• End of the Status Quo:
• The war abruptly ended the status quo in the Karabakh conflict that had been in place since the
First Karabakh War ended in 1994.
• Geopolitical Impact:
• The war reformatted the geopolitical configuration of the South Caucasus, introducing new
power dynamics in the region.
Escalation of conflict
• Location:
• Fighting erupted along the northern border in the Armenian region of Tavush and the Azerbaijani region of Tovuz.
• Tactics:
• Both sides used shelling and drone attacks during the clashes.
• More than a dozen people were killed, including 15 soldiers, with one Azerbaijani civilian killed and one Armenian civilian
wounded from a drone attack.
• Unclear Trigger:
• The specific cause of the fighting remains unclear, with both Armenia and Azerbaijan blaming each other for the escalation.
• Statements and Strategic Aims:
• Defense Minister Zakir Hasanov (Azerbaijan) claimed the goal was to “prevent provocations and reduce the impact of enemy
gun positions on Azerbaijani communities.”
• Azerbaijan faced tactical disadvantages along the frontline, leading to higher casualties.
• Strategic Context:
• The April 2016 offensive aimed to strengthen Azerbaijan’s positions, with limited success in the north around Seysulan/Talish
but greater success capturing the Lele Tepe heights, giving Azerbaijan a better tactical advantage.
• Psychological Impact:
• The limited success of the April 2016 events provided a psychological boost for both the Azerbaijani leadership and public.
Ceasefire Agreement: November
10, 2020
• Ceasefire Agreement: November 10, 2020
• Parties Involved:
• A ceasefire agreement was signed between Russia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia to halt hostilities
in Nagorno-Karabakh.
• Russian Peacekeepers Deployment:
• Along the Nagorno-Karabakh Line of Contact and the Lachin Corridor, 1,960 Russian
peacekeepers were deployed.
• Equipment: 90 armored personnel carriers, 380 units of vehicles, and special equipment were
mobilized to monitor the ceasefire.
• Joint Russia-Turkey Ceasefire Monitoring Center
• November 11, 2020: Russian and Turkish defense ministers signed a memorandum to establish a
joint monitoring center.
• The center is located in Azerbaijan and is responsible for collecting, verifying, and addressing
complaints regarding the ceasefire.
• Its purpose is to ensure the enforcement of the ceasefire and address any violations of the
agreements.
Statement by the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan, Prime
Minister of the Republic of Armenia and President of the Russian
Federation
1. A complete ceasefire and all hostilities in the zone of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict are announced
from 00:00 hours Moscow time on November 10, 2020. The Republic of Azerbaijan and the Republic
of Armenia, hereinafter referred to as the Parties, stop at their positions.
2. Aghdam region is returned to the Republic of Azerbaijan until November 20, 2020.
3. Along the line of contact in Nagorno-Karabakh and along the Lachin corridor, a peacekeeping
contingent of the Russian Federation is deployed in the amount of 1,960 servicemen with small arms,
90 armed personnel carriers, 380 units of automobile and special equipment.
4. The peacekeeping contingent of the Russian Federation is being deployed in parallel with the
withdrawal of the Armenian armed forces. The duration of the stay of the peacekeeping contingent of
the Russian Federation is 5 years with automatic extension for the next 5-year periods, if none of the
Parties declares 6 months before the expiration of the period of intention to terminate the application of
this provision.
Statement by the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan, Prime
Minister of the Republic of Armenia and President of the Russian
Federation
5. In order to increase the effectiveness of control over the implementation of the agreements by the Parties to the
conflict, a peacekeeping center is being deployed to control the ceasefire.
6. The Republic of Armenia will return the Kelbajar region to the Republic of Azerbaijan by November 15, 2020,
and the Lachin region by December 1, 2020. The Lachin corridor (5 km wide), which will ensure the connection
between Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia and at the same time will not affect the city of Shusha, remains under
the control of the peacekeeping contingent of the Russian Federation.
By agreement of the Parties, a plan for the construction of a new route along the Lachin corridor will be
determined in the next three years, providing communication between Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia, with the
subsequent redeployment of the Russian peacekeeping contingent to protect this route.
The Republic of Azerbaijan guarantees the safety of traffic along the Lachin corridor of citizens, vehicles and
goods in both directions.
7. Internally displaced persons and refugees return to the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh and adjacent areas under
the control of the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees.
8. The exchange of prisoners of war, hostages and other detained persons and bodies of the dead is carried out.
9. All economic and transport links in the region are unblocked. The Republic of Armenia guarantees the safety
of transport links between the western regions of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Nakhichevan Autonomous
Republic with the aim of organizing the unimpeded movement of citizens, vehicles and goods in both directions.
Control over transport communication is carried out by the bodies of the Border Guard Service of the FSB of
Russia.
Return of Territories
and Armenia’s
Dilemma
• Territorial Concessions:
• The return of 5 regions adjacent to NagornoKarabakh
could have been more beneficial for
Armenia, according to Armenian Prime Minister
Nikol Pashinyan. However, Armenian society
was not prepared to accept such a concession.
• Pashinyan’s Reflections:
• "This is a big setback for us, a big
catastrophe, a big mourning for the lost lives.
(...) We fell, but we did not slide into the
abyss, we made the decision to stop in time.
Otherwise, our condition would be much
worse. Lessons must be learned, this can
help the future development of our country."
Protests in Yerevan
against the Peace
Agreement
Protesters' Reaction:
•Following the signing of the peace
agreement with Azerbaijan, Yerevan
residents expressed strong
dissatisfaction, storming the Armenian
government building in protest.
Call for Resignation:
•The protesters demanded the
resignation of Prime Minister Nikol
Pashinyan, holding him responsible for
the unfavorable terms of the agreement.
Violence During the Protests:
•Protesters attacked and severely beat
the Speaker of the Armenian
Parliament, Ararat Mirzoyan, in a
display of anger and frustration.
Azerbaijan’s Alliance with Turkey:
Azerbaijan’s strategic partnership with Turkey was key to its success in the war.
Turkey provided drones, military expertise, and planning assistance, directly influencing the war's outcome.
Hedging Foreign Policy:
Azerbaijan balanced relations with both Russia and Turkey, skillfully avoiding direct confrontation with Moscow while
securing military support from Ankara.
Russia maintained a neutral stance during most of the war but later played a diplomatic role, brokering the ceasefire and
deploying peacekeepers​.
Strategic Context and Alliances
Azerbaijan’s
Military
Superiority
Military Modernization:Azerbaijan
had heavily invested in modern
military technology, using revenues
from its oil sector.
Key acquisitions: Drones from
Turkey (Bayraktar TB2) and Israel,
which were essential in striking
Armenian defenses.
Revolution in Warfare:Azerbaijan’s
drones neutralized Armenian artillery
and air defense, providing a
significant tactical advantage and
reducing the need for direct
confrontation on the ground​
Armenia’s
Military
Deficiencies
Outdated Equipment:Armenia
relied on Soviet-era equipment,
which was outdated compared to
Azerbaijan’s modernized forces.
Armenia’s military strategy was
defensive, but its outdated
technology made it vulnerable to
Azerbaijan’s drone and artillery
strikes.
Strategic Miscalculations:Armenia
underestimated Azerbaijan's
capacity for a full-scale offensive
and over-relied on its historical
success in the First Karabakh War​
Operational
Tactics
Southern Offensive:Azerbaijan’s
ground offensive focused on the
southern regions of NagornoKarabakh,
particularly the Horadiz
Gorge.
This provided Azerbaijan with easier
terrain for moving troops and
equipment, leading to the capture of
key positions like Shushi, which
marked a turning point in the war.
Terrain Advantage:Azerbaijan
capitalized on favorable terrain and
superior logistics, enabling faster
troop movements and better supply
lines
Role of external
actors
Turkey’s Military Support:Turkey’s direct
military support, especially through the
use of drones, and its experience from
conflicts in Syria and Libya helped
Azerbaijan strategize effectively.
Russia’s Peacekeeping and
Mediation:Russia played a critical role
after the conflict, brokering the ceasefire
and deploying peacekeepers to stabilize
the situation.
Although Russia was a traditional ally of
Armenia, it remained neutral during the
conflict, maintaining its influence by
mediating post-war negotiations​.
The role of Russia and Turkey
Turkey’s Role in the Conflict
Unconditional Support for Azerbaijan:
•Since the fighting began, Turkey has declared its
unconditional support for Azerbaijan.
•Turkey is suspected of providing various forms of
military assistance, including highly regarded
Turkish drones.
Accusations of Direct Involvement:
•Yerevan accused Turkey of shooting down an
Armenian SU-25 aircraft on 29 September, which
Turkey denied.
•There are unconfirmed reports that Turkey has
mobilized Syrian mercenaries to fight alongside
Azerbaijan, but no firm evidence has been
presented.
Russia’s Complicated Role
Contradictory Roles:
•Russia has bilateral ties with Armenia and provides
security guarantees through the Collective Security
Treaty Organization (CSTO), but these guarantees do
not extend to the conflict zone in Nagorno-Karabakh,
recognized internationally as part of Azerbaijan.
•Moscow supplies weapons to both sides and serves
as one of the co-chairs of the Minsk Group, mediating
the conflict.
Strained Relations with Armenia:
•Russia’s relationship with Armenia's new leader, Nikol
Pashinyan (since 2018), is uneasy.
•In the 1990s, Russia failed to deploy peacekeeping
forces on the ground in Nagorno-Karabakh, limiting its
direct involvement in the conflict.
A renewed conflcit on September 19-20th,
2023
Initiation of Operation:
•Azerbaijan launched a significant
military operation in NagornoKarabakh,
declaring an evacuation of
ethnic Armenians from what is
considered a perilous zone.
Escalation of Conflict:
•The operation has escalated tensions
and raised the risk of a full-scale war in
the region.
Baku’s Announcement:
•The Azerbaijani Defense Ministry
announced the initiation of "local antiterrorist
activities" to counter what they
described as provocations in the
territory.
On the Ground Reports:
•Reports and videos from the region
show intense shelling and gunfire.
•Stepanakert, the unrecognized state's
capital, experienced air raid sirens,
signaling the severity of the situation.
An endgame in Karabakh?
• Azerbaijan’s Military Victory:
• Azerbaijan claimed a military triumph, while Armenia accused Azerbaijan of pursuing ethnic cleansing policies in the
region.
• Lachin Corridor Blockade:
• This offensive followed a nine-month blockade of the Lachin Corridor, the only route linking Nagorno-Karabakh to
Armenia. The blockade led to severe shortages of food, fuel, and medicine.
• In August 2023, the UN declared a humanitarian crisis in the area.
• Shifts in Regional Alliances:
• In the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Armenia began focusing more on building ties with Western nations.
• Meanwhile, Azerbaijan's shared land border and authoritarian governance model with Russia made it a more attractive
partner for Moscow.
• Regional Implications:
• The dissolution of Nagorno-Karabakh could have far-reaching consequences for the South Caucasus.
• A peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan would mark a new era in the region, likely reducing Russia’s
influence and increasing Turkey’s presence.