Power Struggles: Turkey and
Iran’s Influence in the
Caucasus
No War, No Peace: Unresolved Conflicts in the Caucasus
Zinaida Bechná
4.12.2024
Introduction to the South Caucasus Region
• This region is a critical nexus where East meets West. Its position links
Europe to Central Asia, making it vital for trade and military strategy.
• The region also serves as a buffer zone between major powers like
Russia, Turkey, and Iran.
• Diverse Challenges:
• Ethnic, religious, and linguistic diversity complicates unity.
• Persistent territorial conflicts (e.g., Nagorno-Karabakh) hinder stability.
• Energy Resources:
• Rich in oil and natural gas, making it a focal point for energy
transportation routes like pipelines to Europe.
Turkey’s Strategic Alliance with Azerbaijan
• Cultural Bond:Common language and ethnic roots underpin close ties.
• Post-Soviet Azerbaijan saw Turkey as a natural ally for independence and regional strength.
• Military Significance:The 2020 war reaffirmed Turkey’s role as a guarantor of Azerbaijan’s
sovereignty.
• Bayraktar drones used in combat became a symbol of Turkish technological and strategic
assistance.
• Economic Pipeline Diplomacy:Energy corridors bypass Russian influence, giving Turkey
and Azerbaijan strategic autonomy.
• Investment in railway and road links complements energy trade.
Turkey’s Complex Relationship with
Azerbaijan
• Historical and Cultural Ties:
• Shared linguistic and cultural heritage as Turkic
nations.
• Strong bilateral relations rooted in mutual
strategic and economic interests.
• Military and Political Cooperation:
• Support in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War:
• Provision of advanced weaponry, particularly
drones.
• Deployment of Syrian fighters to support Azerbaijan.
• Shusha Declaration (2021):
• Elevated military, diplomatic, and economic
cooperation to a new level.
• Commitment to mutual defense and regional
stability.
• Economic Collaboration:
• Energy and Infrastructure Projects:
• Key pipelines like TANAP and the Baku-TbilisiCeyhan
route.
• Integration of Azerbaijan into Turkey’s broader
energy strategy.
• Trade and Connectivity:
• Expanding transit corridors linking Turkey to the
Caspian region and beyond.
• Implications for Regional Dynamics:
• Strengthened Azerbaijan-Turkey axis challenges
Russian influence.
• Enhanced strategic depth for Turkey in the South
Caucasus and Central Asia.
Turkey’s Relationship with Armenia
• Historical Hostility:
• Legacy of the Armenian Genocide:
• Continued disputes over historical acknowledgment and reparations.
• Lack of formal diplomatic relations.
• Recent Developments:
• Attempts at Normalization:
• Sporadic dialogue aimed at reopening borders.
• Trade agreements in discussion post-2020 war.
• Challenges to Normalization:
• Turkey’s overt support for Azerbaijan complicates relations.
• Internal Armenian political resistance to Turkish rapprochement.
• Strategic Calculations:
• Leverage Armenia’s geopolitical isolation to further Turkey’s influence.
• Use Armenia as a potential bridge to economic projects in the region if normalization succeeds.
Turkey’s Engagement with Georgia
• Strong Bilateral Relations:
• Strategic Partnership:
• Turkey as Georgia’s largest trading
partner.
• Shared commitment to NATO
integration.
• Economic Cooperation:
• Energy Transit Routes:
• Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan and BakuTbilisi-Erzurum
pipelines.
• Georgia as a critical transit hub for
Turkey’s energy needs.
• Military Collaboration:
• Joint training exercises to
enhance interoperability.
• Support for Georgia’s NATO
aspirations.
• Broader Implications:
• Georgia’s role as a buffer
between Turkey and Russia.
• Stability in Turkish-Georgian
relations contrasts with tensions
elsewhere in the region.
Iran’s Role in the South Caucasus
• Historical Context:
• Long-standing ties to the region dating
back to the Persian Empire.
• Policy focused on maintaining the
status quo to prevent external
influence.
• Engagement with Armenia:
• Strategic Cooperation:
• Shared concerns over Azerbaijan-Turkey
alignment.
• Energy exports and economic trade as
key pillars.
• Geopolitical Significance:
• Armenia as a counterbalance to Turkish
influence in the South Caucasus.
• Relationship with Azerbaijan:
• Complicated Dynamics:
• Cultural ties to Iranian Azeris.
• Tensions over Azerbaijan’s relationship
with Israel and support for anti-Iran
movements.
• Recent Challenges:
• Border disputes and transit issues
exacerbate bilateral tensions.
• Relations with Georgia:
• Limited engagement due to Georgia’s
pro-Western orientation.
• Potential for collaboration on trade and
energy routes remains untapped.
Iran’s Challenges in Regionalism
• Security-Oriented Foreign Policy:
• Focus on preventing conflicts from spilling over into Iranian territory.
• Limited proactive engagement in regional cooperation initiatives.
• External Pressures:
• Western Policies:
• Efforts to marginalize Iran in energy and transit projects.
• "Iranophobia" limits Tehran’s influence in Azerbaijan and Georgia.
• Turkey’s and Russia’s Expanding Roles:
• Sidelining Iran in emerging geopolitical configurations.
• Domestic Constraints:
• Economic challenges hinder Tehran’s ability to invest in regional initiatives.
• Internal political divisions limit foreign policy coherence.
Geopolitical Rivalry: Turkey vs. Russia
• Competing Interests:
• Turkey’s Objectives:
• Assert influence in the Turkic world.
• Counterbalance Russian dominance in the South Caucasus.
• Russia’s Objectives:
• Maintain its role as the primary security actor.
• Prevent Turkey’s overreach in its perceived sphere of influence.
• South Caucasus as a Battleground:
• Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict:
• Turkey’s military support for Azerbaijan reshaped the conflict.
• Russia’s peacekeeping presence secures its foothold.
• Implications for Regional Stability:
• Risk of renewed conflict as both powers push their agendas.
Iran’s Approach to Armenia and Azerbaijan
• Balancing Act:Iran’s sizable Azeri population (~15 million) makes
its policy toward Azerbaijan particularly sensitive.
• Close ties with Armenia counterbalance perceived threats from
Azerbaijan-Israel cooperation.
• Energy Diplomacy:Iran provides critical energy resources to
Armenia, especially given the country’s geographic isolation.
• Security Concerns:Tensions with Azerbaijan include border
disputes and fear of a separatist spillover.
Iran’s Approach to Armenia and Azerbaijan
• Balancing Act:Iran’s sizable Azeri population (~15 million) makes
its policy toward Azerbaijan particularly sensitive.
• Close ties with Armenia counterbalance perceived threats from
Azerbaijan-Israel cooperation.
• Energy Diplomacy:Iran provides critical energy resources to
Armenia, especially given the country’s geographic isolation.
• Security Concerns:Tensions with Azerbaijan include border
disputes and fear of a separatist spillover.
Iran’s Limited Engagement with Georgia
• Geostrategic Limits:Georgia’s orientation toward the West makes
Tehran cautious about overreaching.
• Trade Opportunities:Sanctions hinder Tehran’s ability to
capitalize on Georgia’s trade corridors, despite potential benefits.
• Missed Political Influence:Iran’s inability to build soft power in
Georgia contrasts with its deeper ties elsewhere in the Caucasus.
Economic Dimensions of Turkey’s and Iran’s
Regional Policies
• Turkey:
• Dominates economic ties through energy pipelines and trade
agreements.
• Turkish companies lead in construction and infrastructure in the
Caucasus.
• Iran:
• Despite sanctions, Iran remains a significant energy supplier, especially
for Armenia.
• Limited trade with Georgia and Azerbaijan restricts Tehran’s economic
leverage.
Challenges for Iran in Regional Integration
• Security-Oriented Approach:
• Iran prioritizes preventing external threats over active engagement.
• Regionalism suffers due to Tehran’s defensive strategies.
• External Pressures:
• Western policies aim to marginalize Iran’s influence.
• Competing interests from Turkey and Russia reduce Tehran’s relevance.
• Domestic Constraints:
• Economic instability undermines investment in regional initiatives.
• Political divisions within Iran hinder coherent foreign policy strategies.
Geopolitical Rivalry: Turkey vs. Russia in the
South Caucasus
• Turkey:
• Strengthen influence in the Turkic world.
• Undermine Russian dominance.
• Russia:
• Maintain its security presence through peacekeeping missions.
• South Caucasus as a Battleground:
• The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict exemplifies competing agendas.
• Turkey’s military aid to Azerbaijan directly challenges Russian
influence.
Impact of Turkey and Iran’s Policies on
Regional Stability
• Stabilizing Roles:Turkey’s focus on economic interconnectivity
reduces risks of isolation for Azerbaijan.
• Iran’s consistent stance against external interference seeks to
preserve status quo peace.
• Destabilizing Factors:Renewed tensions in Nagorno-Karabakh
threaten to draw in Turkey and Iran indirectly.
Protests in Georgia and Regional Implications
• Local Factors:
• Dissatisfaction with perceived pro-Russian policies fuels nightly
demonstrations.
• International Concerns:
• Suspensions of strategic ties with Western powers leave Georgia
isolated.
• Turkey and Iran’s Role:
• Both countries watch developments carefully but avoid direct
involvement to protect their interests.
Future Prospects for Turkey and Iran in the
South Caucasus
• Turkey’s Strategic Outlook:Further deepening of ties with
Azerbaijan and Georgia.
• Limited scope for progress with Armenia without resolution of
historical grievances.
• Iran’s Path Forward:Opportunities to act as a mediator in regional
disputes.
• Enhanced regional engagement contingent on easing of
sanctions.
Conclusion: Strategic Outlook
• Turkey’s proactive policies position it as a dominant regional player.
• Iran’s cautious approach seeks stability but limits influence.
• Regional Balance:
• Stability depends on cooperation among Turkey, Russia, and Iran
alongside Western partnerships.