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Who votes? Determinants of turnout
Part I
Jakub Jusko

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Introduction and relevance
"Voting as the most common and important act of the citizen in a democracy" Aldrich 1993
•
•
"One of the most important indicators of democratic performance" Powell 1982
•
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"An important factor in electoral performance"

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Ilustrace „Map of 2020 USA presidential elections results“ ze služby Stock | Adobe Stock

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Source: Fisher et al. 2018
+ VARIATIONS across countries, continents, contexts
+ different “turnouts”

• Definition: Voter turnout refers to the percentage of eligible voters who cast a ballot in an
election. It is a crucial measure of political participation and democratic engagement.
+ variation in different countries ->
Global Variations:
• Australia: Implements compulsory voting, resulting in turnout rates around 90% in federal
elections.
• United States: Voter turnout for presidential elections typically ranges between 55-65% of the
voting-eligible population. For example, the 2020 election saw about 66.8% turnout.
• Switzerland: Known for frequent referendums, with turnout rates varying between 40-50%.
• Japan: Voter turnout has been declining, with recent elections seeing around 50-60%
participation.
• National Examples:
• United Kingdom: The 2019 General Election had a turnout of approximately 67.3%.
• Germany: The 2021 federal election saw a turnout of about 76.6%.
• Brazil: Compulsory voting for literate citizens aged 18-70 results in turnout rates usually above
75%.

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Source: Cancela a Geys 2016

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Phenomenon in the academia
•The argument about whether high turnout is important:
- IS (e.g. Lijphart 1997) vs. IS NOT (e.g. Rosema 2007)
•Working with individual and marco-level, data-based from cross-sectional to longitudinal surveys,
from big-data to experimental methods
•Voter turnout and voting one of the most researched areas of political behaviour => in other words
- lots of research

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Phenomenon in the academia
•Difference:
1) Whether they vote (how high the turnout is and why),
2) How people vote (determinants of choosing a particular party)
•
•Lack of consensus within the scientific community on the "core model" of T -> Many factors and
theories not always valid
•
•T meta-analyses can help (e.g. Geys 2006, Smets and Van Ham 2013, Cancela and Geys 2016, Stockemer
2017)

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Two streams of turnout studies
1) Individual level studies
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•Which personal characteristics among voters distinguish them from going out to vote?
•
•
2) Macro-level studies
•
•How does the context in which the election takes place affect turnout?

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What factors influence turnout?

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1) Individual level studies
how to measure?

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Individual level studies
A) The resource model
1)
B) Rational choice model
1)
C) Mobilisation model
1)
D) Socialisation-psychological model
1)

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The Perfect Lesson by pittmans1 on emaze

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A) Socio-economic status model (SES, the resource model)
•Participation is an act driven by individual resources (time, money, skills)
•People who work, have higher income, and higher SES are more likely to have a wider range of
resources
•Persons with low SES are less likely to participate either because:
-they cannot bear the costs of voting (how to vote, registering)
-the need to concentrate on one's own material well-being does not increase civic interest and,
thus, interest in politics

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A) Socio-economic status model (SES, the resource model)
•Age (+): young voters are not clear about their political interests, adults are more likely to
accept social norms, changes in social networks (groups)
•
•Education (+): contributes to resources -> proxy social class and skills
                          one of the strongest predictors,
                          the paradox of increasing education (and not increasing participation)
•
•Income (+): small but significant effects

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A) Socio-economic status model (SES, the resource model)
•Residential stability (-): citizens more anchored in the community -> stronger community ties ->
better knowledge of local (political) issues
•
•Region (-): possible large differences within the landscape (as a control variable)

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A) Socio-economic status model (SES, the resource model)
•Less "successful" variables:
•Gender
•
•Race
•
•Citizenship
•
•Marital status: more committed partner, more pursuit of "good citizenship" vs. less free time

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B) Rational choice model
•It focuses on the "calculus of voting" of a voter who should vote when the benefits outweigh the
costs of voting
•
R = PB - C
•
•A voter should vote when PB > C
•
•Modified version: R = PB - C + D

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B) Rational choice model
•Civic duty (D) (+): 'in a democracy it is the moral duty of every voter to vote', 'necessary to
maintain democracy', 'failure to do so = guilt’ + reciprocity
•
•Instrumental Benefits (B) (+): I care who won the election, personal benefit of winning
•
•Costs (C) (-): time to vote, how "hard" it is to vote (less successful)

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B) Rational choice model
•Civic duty (D) (+): 'in a democracy it is the moral duty of every voter to vote', 'necessary to
maintain democracy', 'failure to do so = guilt'
•
•Instrumental Benefits (B) (+): I care who won the election, personal benefit of winning
•
•Costs (C) (-): time to vote, how "hard" it is to vote (less successful)

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Blais et al. (2000): The calculus of voting: An empirical test
B) Rational choice model
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Blais et al. (2000): The calculus of voting: An empirical test
B) Rational choice model
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Pr) Blais et al. (2000): The calculus of voting: An empirical test
B) Rational choice model
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•Rozdíly spojené s věkem v rámci C -> dospělost -> výsledky -> sociální sítě -> kapacita
pol.znalosti + skills -> náklady na zisk informací         -> korelace s věkem
•
•
•Rozšíření B) vysvětlení o behaviorální složku => volení je HABITUÁLNÍ = volení v prvých volbách
usnadňuje volení v následujících volbách, čím je VÚ pravděpodobnější (více jak věk a vzdělání)
•
•Důležité hlavně u mladých (prvovoliči) -> změna v chování je silnější -> snowball efekt na
dlouhodobé politické chování (a opačně)
•
•
•
•
B) Rational choice model
Source: Cravens 2020

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B) Rational choice model
•Age-related differences within C -> maturity -> outcomes -> social networks -> capacity for field
knowledge + skills -> cost of information gain -> correlation with age
•
•
•Extension of B) explanation to include behavioural component => voting is HABITUAL = voting in the
first election makes it easier to vote in subsequent elections the more likely (more than age and
education) to vote in subsequent elections (self-reinforcing effect)
•
•Important especially for the young (first-time voters) -> behavioural change is stronger ->
snowball effect on long-term political behaviour (and vice versa)

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Get Out The Vote Block Party | Calendar | University of Nevada, Las Vegas

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C) Mobilisation theories
•Sometimes taken within the rational choice model
•
•Political parties and organizations absorb part of the cost of participation (C) by providing
information about parties, candidates, and political process so that C does not outweigh B
•
•The burden of participation is on organizations that mobilize a rationally "deactivated" public

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C) Mobilisation theories
•Partisan + non-partisan mobilisation (GOTV) (+): usually stronger effect of partisan mobilisation
•
•Media exposure (+):
-Political news leads to higher levels of political awareness
-Reading newspapers, TV, radio, a positive effect on GOTV (increase in the amount of content but
per se does not increase GOTV)

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C) Mobilisation theories
Green et al. 2013 - Field Experiments and the Study of Voter Turnout
•
Methods:
•door to door => 2.54 p.p. increase.
•phone calls => increase 0.16-1.94 p.p.
•direct mail + leaflets left at the door => increase of 1 p.p.
•non-personal techniques bring weaker effects
•
Arguments:
•Social coercion, thank you notes, electoral closeness, civic duty...

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D) Socialisation-psychological model
S
•The formative period of life between childhood and adulthood is generally considered to be a
crucial period for gaining a foundation of political attitudes and behaviour
•The important role of parents, teachers, schools, media,...
•Less successful: education of parents and SES; political debate

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D) Socialisation-psychological model
P
•Cognitive characteristics, usually successful
•
•Interest in politics, political knowledge (+) => should act as resources, reduce C
•
•Personal preferences associated with party identification, ideology (+) => intended to function as
benefits (enjoyment of the act of voting)
•
•Less successful: cognitive knowledge, trust in institutions, satisfaction with democracy, trust in
others,...

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D) Socialisation-psychological model
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2) Macro-level studies
how to measure?

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A) Institutional variables
Compulsory voting (+):
-Countries where citizens are legally obliged to vote have higher T
-”Only" half the effect in the case of non-application of a sanction or partial sanction (versus
full sanctions)
Importance of elections (+):
-The more important the election (stronger the representative body), the stronger the incentive to
participate

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A) Institutional variables
Other:
Electoral system (PR+, FPTP-): argumentatively mastered BUT only a minority of cases (mainly by
increasing the cases in non-Western EU countries)
Lowering the voting age (-): hard to measure (not many outside the 18 year mark)
Single chamber, voting on a free day, easier ways to vote: unclear conclusions

Wasted votes vs. representation

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B) Socio-economic variables
Population size (-): smaller countries have more homogeneous populations and closer relationships
with each other and representatives (perhaps a sense of higher P?)
Other:
Economic development of country (+): long and short term, linked to age and education argument BUT
unclear conclusions
Population density (-), corruption (-): few cases

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C) Political and partisan variables
Closeness of elections (+):
- related to P in the rational model
- the smaller the gap between the two main candidates/parties, -> higher the chance that the
citizen's vote will count => close elections attract media coverage and more party mobilization
Blais (2020) works vs. Stockemer (2017) doesn't

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C) Political and partisan variables
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C) Political and partisan variables
Less successful:
•Number of parties (+): the more parties competing, the more choices voters have + better
mobilization -> more likely to reflect their opinion vs. More parties means a more complicated
system to understand (more info needed) + coalition governance

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Conclusion
Motivation is key:
1)Do I like politics?
2)Do I have a duty to vote?
3)Do I care about the outcome?
4)Do I find it easy to vote?
(Blais and Daoust, 2020)
•The research provided new predictors of VU (corruption, weather, ethnic fractionalization...) and
better modelling techniques
•Need to conduct research contextually (within regions, countries) and take contexts into account
•Better comparisons are needed between different levels of analysis (local - regional - national)
and between countries

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Not sure if higher voter turnout this election Or all my friends are just getting older - Not sure
if higher voter turnout this election Or all my friends are just getting older Futurama Fry

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Literatute
•Aldrich, J. H. (1993). Rational choice and turnout. American journal of political science,
246-278.
•Blais, A. (2006). What affects voter turnout?. Annu. Rev. Polit. Sci., 9, 111-125.
•Blais, A., Young, R., & Lapp, M. (2000). The calculus of voting: An empirical test. European
Journal of Political Research, 37(2), 181-201.
•Bram, C. (2023). The most important election of our lifetime: Focalism and political
participation. Political Psychology, 44(5), 943-960.
•Burns, N., Schlozman, K. L., & Verba, S. (2021). The private roots of public action. Harvard
University Press.
•Cancela, J., & Geys, B. (2016). Explaining voter turnout: A meta-analysis of national and
subnational elections. Electoral Studies, 42, 264-275.
•Cravens, M. D. (2020). Measuring the strength of voter turnout habits. Electoral Studies, 64,
102117.
•Downs, A. (1957). An economic theory of democracy.
•Fisher, J., Fieldhouse, E., Franklin, M. N., Gibson, R., Cantijoch, M., & Wlezien, C. (Eds.).
(2018). The Routledge handbook of elections, voting behavior and public opinion (pp. 280-292).
London: Routledge.
•Geys, B. (2006). Explaining voter turnout: A review of aggregate-level research. Electoral
studies, 25(4), 637-663.
•Gomez, B. T., Hansford, T. G., & Krause, G. A. (2007). The Republicans should pray for rain:
Weather, turnout, and voting in US presidential elections. The Journal of Politics, 69(3), 649-663.
•Green, D. P., McGrath, M. C., & Aronow, P. M. (2013). Field experiments and the study of voter
turnout. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties, 23(1), 27-48.
•Lijphart, A. (1997). Unequal participation: Democracy's unresolved dilemma presidential address,
American Political Science Association, 1996. American political science review, 91(1), 1-14.
•Panagopoulos, C. (2008). The calculus of voting in compulsory voting systems. Political Behavior,
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•Powell, G. B. (1982). Contemporary democracies. Harvard University Press.
•Riker, W. H., & Ordeshook, P. C. (1968). A Theory of the Calculus of Voting. American political
science review, 62(1), 25-42.
•Rosema, M. (2007). Low turnout: Threat to democracy or blessing in disguise? Consequences of
citizens' varying tendencies to vote. Electoral Studies, 26(3), 612-623.
•Smets, K., & Van Ham, C. (2013). The embarrassment of riches? A meta-analysis of individual-level
research on voter turnout. Electoral studies, 32(2), 344-359.
•Stockemer, D. (2017). What affects voter turnout? A review article/meta-analysis of aggregate
research. Government and Opposition, 52(4), 698-722.
•Stockemer, D., & Wigginton, M. (2018). Fair weather voters: do Canadians stay at home when the
weather is bad?. International journal of biometeorology, 62(6), 1027-1037.