Adobe Systems Obrázok, na ktorom je text, snímka obrazovky, kruh, diagram Automaticky generovaný popis Adobe Systems Introduction to the vote choice Long-term factors determining voting behaviour Jakub Jusko Adobe Systems 3 Introduction •Definition: Vote choice as the decision-making process in which voters select candidates or options. • •Why it matters: Helps predict election outcomes, understand political dynamics, and gauge democratic engagement. • • • Voting behaviour as the product of complex, overlapping influences—identity, social group, and rational interest—that shape, but don’t fully define, how we vote. No single factor or theory can fully capture this complexity. Adobe Systems 4 Why study vote choice? •Relevance to democratic functioning. • •Insights into political preferences. • •Implications for party strategies and voter outreach. • • •Long term factors: -Ideology -Party identification -SES and class -Religion and ethnicity -Geography + Contemporary political systems factors Adobe Systems 5 Theoretical foundations •Michigan Model: Emphasis on party identification. • •Columbia Model: Sociological perspective - class, religion, and family. • •Rational Choice Theory: Voters as rational actors making cost-benefit decisions. Adobe Systems 6 Theoretical foundations Columbia Model – Lazarsfeld, Berelson – The People’s choice •Representative sample surveys – Ohio 1940 •Emphasis on social characteristics of voters •Campaign à reinforcement of early deciders, motivation of latent predispositions of others 1) class; 2) race/religion; 3) region (urban/rural) •Cross-pressures BUT… Adobe Systems 7 Theoretical foundations Michigan Model – Campbell et al. – The American Voter •Emphasis on individual attitudes + identification with political parties 1)Psychological identification with parties as with other identities 2)This identification is a long-term component, and it persists through swings in voting 3)Identification is important not only directly (vote choice) but also indirectly (influence on attitudes) 4) •Identification prior voting •Stable over time (but can change) • BUT… P.S.: The American Voter Revisited (Lewis-Beck et al.) - Members associating with the group vote in accordance with the group Not Equal" Images – Browse 19,767 Stock Photos, Vectors, and Video | Adobe Stock Adobe Systems 8 Theoretical foundations Rational Choice Theory •Derived from political economy – several political-economic theories: Kenneth Arrow, Anthony Downs (spatial model) 1)The party that will do best is the party that voters' the ideological space closest to where most voters are also located – assuming, that is, that voters vote for the party closest to them in the ideological space. (in the USA, UK in the ideological middle – median voter) => The role of the voters’ utility 2)Parties that are located elsewhere would always do worse. BUT…often not working -> more a reference point + valence of the candidates/parties + information about parties and voters' ideology • Adobe Systems 9 Factors associated with the vote choice Adobe Systems 10 Ideology “Politics is a complex and confusing arena of modern life” (Lipman) •Complicated world => ideologies as a tool for orientation • •“a set of beliefs or principles, especially one on which a political system, party, or organization is based” (Cambridge) •Operational vs. symbolic ideology (Ellis and Stimson 2009) -O: coherent set of attitudes and beliefs -S: self-identification with ideological labels, such as left or right, or with groups denoted by such labels, such as liberals or conservatives - •Top-down vs. bottom-up perspective • •Unidimensional vs. multidimensional • Adobe Systems 11 Ideology •Unidimensional French Revolution -> conflict between stability and progress Right (Conservative, keeping the system, order, individualism, capitalism, nationalism, fascism) Left (Progress, system change, equality, solidarity, protest, opposition, radical, socialism, communism) •Multidimensional -Economic -Social, post-materialist, GAL-TAN,… - Adobe Systems 12 Ideology Obrázok, na ktorom je text, snímka obrazovky, diagram, vývoj Automaticky generovaný popis Obrázok, na ktorom je text, diagram, snímka obrazovky, rad Automaticky generovaný popis Adobe Systems 13 Class and socioeconomic status (SES) •Class – can mean different things (occupational classifications, employment status (e.g., owner versus employee), income, education,… • •Class voting -> classical studies and the competition between working class (left-wing) and middle-class (right-wing) •The Alford Index - the percentage of manual workers that voted for left-wing parties minus the percentage of nonmanual workers that voted for these parties The Electoral Politics of Growth Regimes | Perspectives on Politics | Cambridge Core Rob Ford on X: "Here's a second just for fun. The Alford Index captures the differences in levels of middle class and working class support for parties. See if you can spot Adobe Systems 14 Class Obrázok, na ktorom je text, snímka obrazovky, písmo, rovnobežný Automaticky generovaný popis Adobe Systems 15 Religion Adobe Systems 16 Religion and Ethnicity Roe v Wade: Supreme Court decision highlights US abortion divide Adobe Systems 17 Religion and Ethnicity About BJP – BJP | BJP Gujarat | Bharatiya janata Party Indian National Congress- History, Session, President List Adobe Systems 18 Party identification …as a sense of personal attachment which an individual feels towards a party (of their choice) •Party identification helps to shape choices directly as well as indirectly - it helps to make sense of the information we receive • •Example: how party identification may help to filter economic news • •Behavioural changes: campaign activity, consistency voting, early decision •Also: a way of locating for people in the system, associated with interest in politics and elections (and turn out) • •How it arises? Socialisation vs. habituation • •Role of geography of voter • • • Adobe Systems 19 Religion and Ethnicity U.S. and Germany help unemployed differently, leading to different jobless rates - The Washington Post Adobe Systems 20 Party identification …as a sense of personal attachment which an individual feels towards a party (of their choice) •Party identification helps to shape choices directly as well as indirectly - it helps to make sense of the information we receive • •Example: how party identification may help to filter economic news • •Behavioural changes: campaign activity, consistency voting, early decision •Also: a way of locating for people in the system, associated with interest in politics and elections (and turn out) • •How it arises? Socialisation vs. habituation • •Role of geography of voter • • • Adobe Systems 21 Contemporary political systems and new reality Adobe Systems 22 The decline of party loyalty •Role of social changes and political changes in the society • Obrázok, na ktorom je text, snímka obrazovky, rovnobežný, písmo Automaticky generovaný popis Obrázok, na ktorom je text, vývoj, rad, diagram Automaticky generovaný popis Adobe Systems 23 The decline of party loyalty Examples: •Shift toward personality-based voting in France (e.g., Macron). •Volatile voting behaviour in post-communist countries. • • Obrázok, na ktorom je text, snímka obrazovky, písmo, dokument Automaticky generovaný popis Adobe Systems 24 The decline of party loyalty Examples: •Shift toward personality-based voting in France (e.g., Macron). •Volatile voting behaviour in post-communist countries. • • Obrázok, na ktorom je diagram, rad, text, technický výkres Automaticky generovaný popis Adobe Systems 25 New socioeconomic realities •Impact of globalization: How global economic shifts affect voting behaviour • •Examples: •Economic restructuring in post-industrial regions •Increased support for populism in economically declining regions • •Economic shocks significantly influence political attitudes and voting behaviour, with negative shocks generally increasing support for left-leaning policies and redistribution (Margalit 2019). BUT decrease trust in political institutions, potentially driving voters towards populist parties or disengagement •Regional economic factors, such as long-term structural changes, impact of the Great Recession, and current economic conditions (regions with low, but rising immigrant shares, old industrial regions, smaller regions) -> shaping populist vote shares (Essletzbichler et al. 2018). •Globalization as strengthening link between economic performance and voting behaviour by providing citizens with more comparative information (Park 2023). • Adobe Systems 26 Rise of identity politics •The role of personal identity (e.g., race, gender, sexual orientation) in vote choice. • •Examples: •Growing importance of national identity in European elections. •Gender and identity issues in South American elections. • •Cognitive models -> policy positions and social identities compete, rather than simply combine, to determine voter preferences (Jenke and Huettel 2016). Aka internal ambivalence •Endorsements from marginalized community organizations can influence voter evaluations as much as candidate demographics (particularly for LGBT-endorsed candidates) -> process associational affect (Bell and Borelli 2023). •Xenophobia, racial resentment and sexism, white identity influenced primary voting and potential 2020 voting intentions -> Trump (Buyuker et al., 2021) Adobe Systems 27 Summary •Long-term factors historically shape voting behaviour but are evolving • •Lasting role of personal ideology, class, religion, ethnicity, political identification on voting behaviour, although in different ways than it used to • •More focus on valence and issues • •Contemporary influences like identity politics and SES are reshaping voter loyalty and choices. Adobe Systems 28 Activity Do you know the voter based on their characteristics? Adobe Systems 29 Turkey •Profile: Mohammed, 40, a Sunni Muslim shop owner in Istanbul, Turkey • •Long-Term Influences: Strong religious beliefs, commitment to Islamic values, and concerns about secularization. Turkey shop owner hi-res stock photography and images - Alamy Adobe Systems 30 Spain •Profile: Elena, 43, a farmer in rural Castilla-La Mancha, Spain • •Long-Term Influences: Agricultural background, reliance on EU subsidies, preference for rural development policies. 29,704 Lady Farmer Images, Stock Photos, and Vectors | Shutterstock Adobe Systems 31 Italy •Profile: Giovanni, 61, an entrepreneur in Milan, Italy • •Long-Term Influences: High-income, business-focused, interested in tax reduction and economic liberalization. Italian entrepreneur hi-res stock photography and images - Page 3 - Alamy Adobe Systems 32 Ukraine •Profile: Andriy, 42, an Orthodox Christian in Lviv, Ukraine • •Long-Term Influences: Strong national identity, traditional values, concerns about cultural autonomy, and a pro-European outlook. Lviv Polytechnic associate professor injured in Russian attack on Lviv on 4 September dies in hospital | Ukrainska Pravda Adobe Systems 33 Sweden •Profile: Sven, 34, an unemployed worker, in Stockholm, Sweden • 260+ Portrait Of Swedish Man Serious Stock Photos, Pictures & Royalty-Free Images - iStock Adobe Systems 34 Germany •Profile: Lukas, 22, a university student in Munich, Germany • •Long-Term Influences: Climate-conscious, progressive social values, tech-savvy, concerns about environmental issues. German Student Stock Photos, Images and Backgrounds for Free Download Adobe Systems 35 Germany •Profile: Lukas, 22, a university student in Munich, Germany • •Long-Term Influences: Climate-conscious, progressive social values, tech-savvy, concerns about environmental issues. • • •Lukas is enthusiastic about the Green Party’s environmental policies, but he’s worried about job opportunities post-graduation in a potentially slower economy due to the Greens’ ambitious environmental goals. With pressure from his parents to consider job security, he’s contemplating voting for the …, which offers a more moderate approach to both job growth and climate initiatives. Adobe Systems 36 USA •Profile: Emma, 56, a schoolteacher in Ohio, USA • •Long-Term Influences: Comes from a family of lifelong Democrats, values social programs, education funding, and workers’ rights. 72,091 America Teacher Stock Photos, High-Res Pictures, and Images - Getty Images Adobe Systems 37 USA •Profile: Emma, 56, a schoolteacher in Ohio, USA • •Long-Term Influences: Comes from a family of lifelong Democrats, values social programs, education funding, and workers’ rights. • •Emma’s neighbourhood has experienced an uptick in crime, and she feels the Democratic Party’s approach to policing doesn’t address her concerns fully. Although she typically votes Democratic due to her background and social beliefs, she’s now considering the …, which takes a stronger stance on crime control and law enforcement. Adobe Systems 38 Next… Greens/EFA in the EU Parliament 🌍 on X: "With your vote, you can make the difference. Go vote in the EU elections! Today, Irish and Czech voters are headed to the polls Adobe Systems 39 Literatute •Bell, R., & Borelli, G. (2024). Marginalization by Proxy: Voter Evaluations at the Intersection of Candidate Identity and Community Ties. Politics & Gender, 20(2), 422-448. •Buyuker, B., D'Urso, A. J., Filindra, A., & Kaplan, N. J. (2021). Race politics research and the American presidency: thinking about white attitudes, identities and vote choice in the Trump era and beyond. Journal of Race, Ethnicity, and Politics, 6(3), 600-641. •https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/shout-out#google_vignette •Campbell, A., Converse, P. E., Miller, W. and Stokes, D. (1960) The American Voter, New York: Wiley. •Downs, A. (1957) An Economic Theory of Democracy, New York: Harper and Row. •Ellis, C. and Stimson, J. A. (2009) “Symbolic Ideology in the American Electorate,” Electoral Studies, vol. 28, no. 3, September, 388–402. •Essletzbichler, J., Disslbacher, F., & Moser, M. (2018). The victims of neoliberal globalisation and the rise of the populist vote: a comparative analysis of three recent electoral decisions. Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, 11(1), 73-94. •Feldman, S. and Johnston, C. (2014) “Understanding the Determinants of Political Ideology: Implications •of Structural Complexity,” Political Psychology, vol. 35, no. 3, June, 337–358. •Gyárfášová, O., & Hlatky, R. (2023). Personalized politics: Evidence from the Czech and Slovak Republics. Electoral Studies, 81, 102567. •Lazarsfeld, P., Berelson, B., and Gaudet, H. (1944) The People’s Choice, New York: Duell, Sloane, and Pearce. •Lewis- Beck, M., Jacoby, W. G., Norpoth, H., and Weisberg, H. F. (2008) The American Voter Revisited, Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press. •Margalit, Y. (2019). Political responses to economic shocks. Annual Review of Political Science, 22(1), 277-295. •Park, B. B. (2023). How does economic openness affect the relative economic voting?. European Political Science Review, 15(4), 562-581. •Powell, E. N., & Tucker, J. A. (2014). Revisiting electoral volatility in post-communist countries: New data, new results and new approaches. British Journal of Political Science, 44(1), 123-147. •https://www.politicalcompass.org