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Voting in a multi-level electoral setting
Jakub Jusko

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Multilevel dynamics of electoral politics
•The need for understanding differential behaviour between different levels of governance
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•Especially relevant in federal states (e.g. Belgium, Canada, Germany, the US or Spain) -> the US
as the starting point for the other research
+ shift of authority from the national to the subnational or supranational level (EU)
•Turnout -> similar discussion to the first lecture BUT how do factors work in different settings?
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•Vote choice -> several theories of how voters behave and why they defect (fluctuate) in party
voting in different settings
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Turnout

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Turnout
Why is turnout (usually) higher in one election type and lower in the other?
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•Conventional wisdom -> participation is lower at the subnational (regional, local) or
supranational (European) level
•There is less at stake in non-national elections -> “second-order election” theory
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•Evidence:
- 9 federations (2003-2006) -> less than 10 points difference between regional and national
elections (but sometimes regional elections showed higher turnout)
- 21 European countries (1990-2014) -> around 10 points difference between local and national
elections (except France)
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Aggregate level
•Some aggregate level factors are affecting differently voter turnout:
-Population size better explaining T at subnational level
-Political factors (campaign expenditures) better explaining T at national level
-Turnout gap smaller when there is more at stake (local autonomy index) -> not as significant as…
-Synchronisation of electoral cycles
-Compulsory voting and closeness (through interest) -> moderation effect is stronger in European
elections compared to national

-Decentralisation (in Spain and Canada) -> turnout in regional elections
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•Some others are not:
- Degree of (regional) authority
- Revenues and spending of reg. entities (both turnout in national elections)
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Individual level
•Henderson and McEwen (2015) – 29 regions (Canada, UK, Spain)
-Regional identity
-Perceived importance of the election => reg. elections turnout
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•Blais and Daoust (2020) – 2011-2015 - regional, national, subnational
- Little variance in the means of predispositions for voting -> political interest, D, B, C
(rational choice theory)
-Exception -> D and B in European elections is smaller!

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Individual level
•Franklin and Hobolt (2011): elections as habitual activity
-Those, who vote in EU elections have acquired a habit of voting at a previous occasion (national
election mostly)
-Potential problem when first elections of a voter are EU elections
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•Kostelka et al. (2019): gender gap?
-No gender gap in national elections
-Women systematically vote less in supranational (EU)
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Overall, supranational (EU) elections turnout more sensitive to changes in individual
characteristics (regional less -> D or C almost the same)

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Individual level
•Kostelka et al. (2019): gender gap?
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Individual level
•Nonnemacher (2021): voter fatigue

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Vote choice

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Vote choice
•Start of the theory in the US –> comparison of general and mid-term elections
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•Surge and decline theory
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•Referendum theory
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•Balancing theory
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èDifference in the US and European elections –> the role of the electoral cycle + multiparty system
è
The second-order theory by Reif and Schmitt (1980)

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Surge and decline
•A. Campbell (1960)
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•Reasons for mid-term loss of presidential party:
- level of political stimulation
-political interest
-party identification
ÞPresidential elections important and “high stimulus” -> who is running the country
ÞNormal vote vs. short-term deviation

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Referendum and accountability
•Tufte (1975)
•Mid-term elections serving as a referendum:
-Evaluation of the president’s performance
-Evaluation of the performance of the economy
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•Accountability at the heart of a healthy democracy -> voters are aware which level is responsible
for which domain -> reward/punish mechanisms
•Evidence from Canada, France, Germany, Spain (González-Sirois and Bélanger, 2019; Golder et al.,
2017)
•Related to economic voting and pledges
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Referendum and accountability
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Balancing
•Alesina and Rosenthal 1989, 1995
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•Voters split their ticket between elections by supporting one party for the presidency and another
one for the Congress -> aim for divided government
ÞPromoting policy moderation, seeking ”balance”
Þ
•Difficult to show the motivation but…
-Kern and Hainmueller (2006) – midterm losses (in state elections) by national party more prevalent
when they control lower and upper chambers
-Canada (1935-1953) – five wins at national level but not always in provincial governments

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Second-order election theory
•Low stimulus elections arguments developed in the US context generalised by Reif and Schmitt
(1980) -> first EP elections in 1979
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•Central idea: there is “less at stake” in SOE than in FOE (typically national parliamentary) ->
for voters, media, parties
ÞExposure to campaigns in SOE should be lower, mostly caused by inactivity of media and parties
ÞThe vote in SOE is shaped by how people feel about national politics (the incumbent party at the
national level) -> national level considerations prominent in other levels as well
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Less important => room for all kinds of considerations not related with the policies
representatives are responsible for (weather, ballot order,…)

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Second-order election theory
•Main point of reference for the study of less important elections – local, regional, EU,
by-elections, mid-term elections
•However, not all are equally unimportant -> the concept of local elections as “one and
three-quarters order” (Heath et al., 1999)
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•Other properties:
- The role of electoral cycle
- Multiparty setting – party size important -> government parties
   -> big parties
   -> smaller parties
•Mechanisms: protest voting (voting with the boot), voting with the heart
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Second-order election theory
•Main point of reference for the study of less important elections – local, regional, EU,
by-elections, mid-term elections
•However, not all are equally unimportant -> the concept of local elections as “one and
three-quarters order” (Heath et al., 1999)
•
•Other properties:
- The role of electoral cycle
- Multiparty setting – party size important -> government parties
   -> big parties
   -> smaller parties
•Mechanisms: protest voting (voting with the boot), voting with the heart
•
•
•
•
•

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•Mueller and Louwerse (2020)
•171 cycles in 22 countries -> government parties lose support during the first half of the
electoral cycle, but at most partially recover from their initial losses.
•Stronger effects with single-party governments
•Harder to recover since the 2000s
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Second-order election theory
•A lots of evidence, but also exceptions -> 2004 EU elections,
regional elections in some states,…
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•Consequences of SOE for FOE:
-SOE and impact on national party systems -> “midwife assisting in the birth of new parties” (FN,
UKIP, green parties,…)
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-SOE and further depressing of turnout in FOE
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-Better chances for getting into the national parliament?
Hájek (2017) Multiple office holding
-Positive effects -> plenary sessions, bills
-Negative effects -> committee meetings, addressed speeches

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Summary
•Multiple levels, different behaviours
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•The role of SOE in the perceived importance by the voters and the need for participation
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•Different theoretical foundations for explaining defection in SOE -> surge and decline,
referendum, balance or general SOE theory
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•Often important a particular context – media attention, time in electoral cycle, which type of
SOE, which country,…
•

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•Alesina, A., & Rosenthal, H. (1995). Partisan politics, divided government, and the economy.
Cambridge University Press.
•Anderson, C. D. (2008). Economic voting, multilevel governance and information in Canada. Canadian
Journal of Political Science/Revue canadienne de science politique, 41(2), 329-354.
•Blais, A., & Daoust, J. F. (2020). The motivation to vote: Explaining electoral participation. UBC
Press.
•Blais, A., Anduiza, E., & Gallego, A. (2011). Decentralization and voter turnout. Environment and
Planning C: Government and Policy, 29(2), 297-320.
•Campbell, A. (1960). Surge and decline: A study of electoral change. Public opinion quarterly,
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•Cancela, J., & Geys, B. (2016). Explaining voter turnout: A meta-analysis of national and
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•Daoust, J. F., & Blais, A. (2021). Electoral behaviour in multilevel systems. In Handbook on
decentralization, devolution and the state (pp. 255-268). Edward Elgar Publishing.
•Franklin, M. N., & Hobolt, S. B. (2011). The legacy of lethargy: How elections to the European
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•Golder, S. N., Lago, I., Blais, A., Gidengil, E., & Gschwend, T. (2017). Multi-level electoral
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•González-Sirois, G., & Bélanger, É. (2019). Economic voting in provincial elections: Revisiting
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•Van der Eijk, C., Franklin, M., & Marsh, M. (1996). What voters teach us about Europe-wide
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•Wrong, D. H. (1957). The pattern of party voting in Canada. Public Opinion Quarterly, 21(2),
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Literatute