Adobe Systems Obrázok, na ktorom je text, snímka obrazovky, kruh, diagram Automaticky generovaný popis Adobe Systems Seemingly unrelated events Jakub Jusko Adobe Systems 3 Seemingly unrelated events •The classic notion that voters should use all relevant information to make a rational decision-making • •However, voters are emotional beings; many things happen between the pre-election campaign campaign to the moment of casting a ballot • •Health problems, life - changing events, and normal events seemingly unrelated to the electoral process • •Associated with a decision to turnout and/or support a certain type of candidate/party Adobe Systems 4 Voter rationality •The classic notion of how voters decide who to vote for – rational vs irrational voter •The question of retrospective vs. prospective voters •The question of responsive vs. attentive voters • • •The question of voting-> economic voting -Socio-tropic or ego-tropic •The question of voting -> natural disasters voting • •The question of voting -> sports matches Adobe Systems 5 Voter rationality •Political scientists have long been interested in evaluating voters’ competence to fulfil their electoral responsibility -> are they sufficiently informed? Are they sufficiently rational? •Why rationality important -> central to normative debates about electoral democracy; theory often assumes rationality •Rationality embedded in the theory of retrospective voting: - Voters base their decisions on an evaluation of the past - For example, the performance of incumbents or governing parties - Vs. assessments of candidates’ or parties’ likely future (economic) success -> prospective voting Adobe Systems 6 Voter rationality •Two perspectives on voters' understanding of politicians' accountability: 1)The voter is irrational/ignorant - sharks, sports matches... -retrospective judgments as a direct response to the absolute state of the world - citizens punish or reward an incumbent party based on the state of the world without regard to the responsibility of the incumbent in shaping it - 2)The voter is rational – retrospectively evaluates a politician's performance - citizens reward a good performance with electoral support for the incumbent government and punish a bad performance by voting for the opposition. Adobe Systems 7 Responsive electorate 1)The voter is irrational/ignorant - sharks, sports matches... -studied by Achen and Bartels (2002, 2016) = “blind retrospection” -random events may determine the fate of the incumbent – outcomes, not policies themselves, are important -The United Kingdom’s Conservative party losing an election because of a bad harvest -The pharaoh’s reign being shortened because of drought -President Wilson losing votes in New Jersey because of shark attacks -American presidents losing about a percent of the vote in states that were too dry or too wet - - - “…you need two things to be successful.. . . You need rain in the north and a strong economy. And there is nothing you can do about either one.” Adobe Systems 8 Responsive electorate Obrázok, na ktorom je osoba, kravata, ľudská tvár, úsmev Automaticky generovaný popis Adobe Systems 9 Responsive electorate How the Government Is Failing Americans Uprooted by Natural Disaster - The New York Times Adobe Systems 10 Attentive electorate 2)The voter is rational – retrospectively evaluates a politician's performance - A politician is held accountable only for his or her efforts to shape the state of the world. -However, the problem of attribution – who is actually responsible for dealing with the crisis, situation, or event? Powell and Whitten (1993) – weak relationship between economic performance and the vote in countries in which responsibility for economic policy is blurred between government and opposition, but a strong relationship in countries where responsibility is clear. Adobe Systems 11 Responsive electorate How the Government Is Failing Americans Uprooted by Natural Disaster - The New York Times Adobe Systems 12 It's the (Knowledge) Economy, Stupid - by Musa al-Gharbi Adobe Systems 13 Economic voting •How the economy affects incumbents' support • •For many, a basis for evaluation of government performance • •When an economy is doing well (poorly) , citizens are more (less) likely to re-elect incumbents • •Evidence from all the levels, for different offices (Lewis-Beck and Stegmaier, 2008) BUT size and strength differs -Shared vs exclusive authority -Credit attribution vs. hiding behind institutional opacity (Lago-Peñas and Lago-Peñas, 2010) Adobe Systems 14 Economic voting • •Determined by how voters take the economy into account: 1)Own pocketbooks – “egotropic” voting - Own finances (Fiorina 1978), loss of employment (Grafstein 2005) 2)Well-being of the country as a whole – “sociotropic” voting - Rates of inflation (Norpoth 1996), consumer prices (Lepper 1974), leading economic indicators (Wlezien and Erikson 1996) - Possible bias introduced by local conditions, personal finances, political attitudes, demographics, and the media Adobe Systems 15 New Zealand's new parliament turns red: final 2020 election results at a glance Germany Has Voted: Merkel Wins German Election, Has Majority for Center-Right Government - DER SPIEGEL Are you better off than you were four years ago? | Famous Re… | Flickr Adobe Systems 16 Natural disasters Adobe Systems 17 Obrázok, na ktorom je text, vonkajšie, zamračené Automaticky generovaný popis Silnější než samotné tornádo.“ Moravu pustošily i savé víry, říká odborník - Seznam Zprávy Adobe Systems 18 page61image37038448 page62image37081776 Adobe Systems 19 Veľká voda naďalej trápi Slovensko, dvaja ľudia sú nezvestní - Domáce - Správy - Pravda Adobe Systems 20 Obrázok, na ktorom je nebo, auto, exteriér, strom Automaticky generovaný popis Adobe Systems 21 Electoral turnout •Rational choice argument - increased costs (more like rain) -> not elected BUT •Motivational aspect? - I want to express an opinion on the solution to the crisis -> voting Different outcomes: •No effect - Bodet, Thomas and Tessier 2016, Lasala-Blanco et al. 2017 •Negative effect - Sinclair et al. 2011 (BUT more affected areas higher participation), •Positive effect - Fair et al. 2017, Jusko and Spáč 2024 • Difference in addressing turnout in "normal" weather and natural disaster Adobe Systems 22 Note: important mechanisms •“Peak and end” heuristic (Frederickson and Kahneman 1993) -Individuals may use heuristics to minimize the costs of becoming informed about political issues -Related to political budget cycle and pork barrel politics issues •Habituation (Rogers and Frey, 2015) - People repeatedly affected by floods over several years tend to foster resilience to the damaging effects of floods (Garde-Hansen et al., 2017) Adobe Systems 23 Jusko and Spáč (2024) Adobe Systems 24 Jusko and Spáč (2024) Obrázok, na ktorom je text, rad, snímka obrazovky, vývoj Automaticky generovaný popis Adobe Systems 25 Obrázok, na ktorom je mapa Automaticky generovaný popis Adobe Systems 26 Volebná účasť Obrázok, na ktorom je mapa Automaticky generovaný popis Adobe Systems 27 Volebná účasť Obrázok, na ktorom je mapa Automaticky generovaný popis Adobe Systems 28 Effect on incumbents and parties •Two perspectives on voters' understanding of politicians' accountability: 1) The voter is irrational/ignorant - sharks, sports matches... 2) The voter is rational - retrospectively evaluates a politician's performance •natural disasters can actually provide information about government preparedness and their capabilities, the performance of the entity responsible for dealing with the crisis •it is not about irrationality but about reflecting political (in)competence -> credit claiming + media attention important + gratitude? + clientelism? • •Methodologically - better at examining the effect of government spending (incumbent) on electoral outcomes (like general economic reform) Adobe Systems 29 Can a natural disaster help a politician get re-elected? NO •Abney and Hill (1966), Hurricane Betsy and the Mayors of Louisiana - Voters did not factor the hurricane into their vote choice – did not know who to blame •Bodet et al. (2016), Calgary flooding and mayors •Bovan et al. (2018), Croatia floods • • YES •Masiero and Santarrosa (2021), earthquake in Italy and mayors (5 p.p.) •Bechtel and Hainmueller (2011), flooding in Germany and SPD •Gallego (2018), flooding in Colombia and local elections + others -> YES prevails • Adobe Systems 30 Can a natural disaster help a politician get re-elected? •Major government incumbents (Blankenship et al. 2021) – India • •In an election year more generous (Cole et al. 2012) - India • •Closer at election time -> abuse (Wang 2020) - Taiwan • •Leftist and nationalist parties allocate more $ (Klomp 2020) •Disaster-aids are better than prevention (Gallego 2018) - Colombia • •Reward lasts longer (25% of original reward in next election) (Bechtel and Hainmueller 2011) - Germany • •Stronger effect in less democratically established countries (Neugart and Rode 2021) - Germany Adobe Systems 31 Obrázok, na ktorom je diagram, rad, vývoj, náčrt Automaticky generovaný popis Adobe Systems 32 Note: attentive or responsive electorate? •Healy and Malhotra (2010) and Gasper and Reeves (2011) -while voters do punish incumbent presidents for severe weather damage, they also reward them for disaster declarations •Heersink et al. (2022) -Hurricane Sandy 2012 - voters’ reactions to disaster damage were strongly conditioned by pre-existing partisanship, with counties that previously supported Obama reacting far more positively to disaster damage than those that had earlier opposed him. => partisan retrospection • Adobe Systems 33 Obrázok, na ktorom je text, rad, číslo, vývoj Automaticky generovaný popis Obrázok, na ktorom je rad, text, snímka obrazovky, vývoj Automaticky generovaný popis Adobe Systems 34 Sports matches Adobe Systems 35 Sport •An important event in a day of a fan – win improves mood (Goetze et al. 2020) • •Improves coexistence, solidarity, local and national patriotism (Misener and Mason 2006) • •The question of durability - Busby et al. 2016 • • •YES – Healy et al. 2010 (USA), Busby et al. 2016 – (college football game) •NO – Fowler and Montagnes (NFL USA), Rapeli and Soderlund 2022 (Finland), Muller and Kneafsey 2021 (Ireland) • Adobe Systems 36 Sport • •Healy et al. 2010 •The success of the local football team before the elections increase the success of the incumbent in presidential, senatorial, gubernatorial elections in the home county of the team •Win 2009 NCAA tournament -> President Obama's positive image increased by 2.3% and 5% - among fans who followed the tournament closely => fans reward and punish incumbents for changes in their sentiments. Obrázok, na ktorom je rovnobežný, diagram, text, rad Automaticky generovaný popis Adobe Systems 37 Sport • •Potoski and Urbatsch 2017 -Monday Night Football (the day before the US elections) as a civic distraction to elections -“Time as the principal cost of voting” – Downs 1957 -leisure more valuable -> opportunity costs higher -> decrease in turnout -preelection football game quality increase -> 2-8 p.p. decrease in turnout -effect weaker in those with a higher interest in politics + partisans Adobe Systems 38 Life changing moments and turnout •The role of habit vs. costs associated with other circumstances How strong is the voting habit in the face of different types of life circumstances? •Experiencing LCHM may: -Alter political interest -Decrease continuity in the social and personal contexts -Introduce new social influences ÞMay cause a person to rethink the importance of politics (updating) Þ Important factors (Rapeli et al. 2023): -Divorce -Relocating (occasional + habitual voters) -Retiring (increase among habitual voters) => social connections important Adobe Systems 39 Conclusion •Seemingly unrelated events can have outsized impacts on voter decisions, underscoring the complexity of electoral behaviour. • •Two stories important: 1) Voters often rely on heuristics, emotions, and short-term events when evaluating incumbents. -Psychological Factors: •Emotional reasoning (e.g., anger, optimism). •Recency bias: Voters weigh recent events more heavily. •Attribution errors: Misplaced blame or credit. -Contextual Factors: • Visibility of events in media. • Timing of events relative to elections. 2) Voters can take some of the events to better analyse the performance of the incumbent • Understanding these influences helps us better predict and interpret electoral outcomes. • Adobe Systems 40 Next… Funny Birthday Card - General Election Voting Form - Birthday Party Political | thortful Adobe Systems 41 Literatute •Allcott, H., & Rogers, T. 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