Adobe Systems Obrázok, na ktorom je text, snímka obrazovky, kruh, diagram Automaticky generovaný popis Adobe Systems The role of election day context – ballot, heuristics, cues Jakub Jusko Adobe Systems 3 Seemingly unrelated events •The classic notion that voters should use all relevant information to make a rational decision-making • •However, voters are emotional beings; many things happen between the pre-election campaign campaign to the moment of casting a ballot • •Health problems, life - changing events, and normal events seemingly unrelated to the electoral process -> also things happening during election day • •Undecided voters or voters with not enough information – susceptible to be influenced Adobe Systems 4 Obrázok, na ktorom je text, písmo, snímka obrazovky, číslo Automaticky generovaný popis Obrázok, na ktorom je text, rad, číslo, snímka obrazovky Automaticky generovaný popis Adobe Systems 5 Why Do We Have To Go To School? | Vermont Public Under the Gun: Firearms Trafficking in Latin America and the Caribbean 2024 Election: How to track your ballot and what to do if it's been damaged - ABC News Adobe Systems 6 Election day environment context – polling station •When people make choices, they do so in particular environmental contexts: •People may enrol in a health plan while at work or home, select a potential mate while at a bar or park, and cast their ballot while at a church or school. • •Stimuli in the environment have been shown to prime or activate content in memory, making related constructs more accessible (unconsciously) • •Berger et al. (2008) – voting in schools -> activation of school-relevant norms (support for education), support for children -> support for increased school spending Adobe Systems 7 Election day environment context – intimidation and clientelism •In contexts where the use of violence is also an option on the ‘menu of manipulation’ of elections (Schedler 2002), parties use intimidation to prevent non-supporters from participating in elections. • •Clientelism – vote buying -> unaligned and core voters targeted -intention: getting votes •Violence – opposition voters targeted -intention: abstention Overall aim: increase support for me, decrease support for rivals -Sub-saharan Africa -Nigeria 2003, 2007 elections -Sri Lanka – 2005 presidential elections If a voter were threatened into voting for a party against her pre- erence, she would face a dilemma. She could either give in to the threat or vote according to her preferences. The most common reaction will be that she chooses the mid- dle ground and abstains. Adobe Systems 8 Obrázok, na ktorom je text, snímka obrazovky, multimediálny softvér, softvér Automaticky generovaný popis Adobe Systems 9 Ballot •A tool for a voter to express their choice in elections • •Contains information about the candidate's name, party affiliations, sometimes age, education, occupation, residence • •A line of research focusing on how the ballot structure can influence voters • •The role of heuristics and ballot order Adobe Systems 10 Heuristics Adobe Systems 11 Heuristics “how a public that is notoriously uninterested and largely "innocent" of political matters can provide any control over public policy” • •Most individuals fall short of fully informed, fully rational voting behaviour • •Our behaviour reveals that we are cognitive misers attempting to maximize the utility of the limited information we do have while avoiding the time-consuming search needed to enact a fully informed vote (e.g., Conover and Feldman 1984, 1989; Redlawsk 2004; Lau et al. 2018) • •How can democracy survive? Adobe Systems 12 Heuristics •People solve their lack of knowledge with cognitive shortcuts • •Original research by Kahneman and Tversky •People use heuristics to simplify decision situations, may lead to errors in judgment • •Political science adopts the concept of heuristics as a tool to help people navigate an overly complex political environment • •Major optimism boom in the 1990s -> “low information rationality” (Popkin 1991) vs. backlash of not “correct voting” • •The concept helps overcome the problem of not being informed fully • •Applies also to other situations • • Adobe Systems 13 Heuristics (Lau and Redlawsk 2001) Obrázok, na ktorom je text, písmo, snímka obrazovky, žltý Automaticky generovaný popis Adobe Systems 14 Heuristics •Law and Redlawsk (2001): -party affiliation and ideology -endorsement -polls -candidate appearance -Sophisticates can use heuristics to make the right choice (paradoxically) -They are useless to unsophisticated voters -Sophisticated = ideology and endorsement, unsophisticated voters = partisanship and appearance •Bernhard and Freeder (2020) -Endorsements, experience, and specific programmatic stances -> SOPH -Personal requests -> UNSOPH - Knowledgeable voters report looking for good representatives, while less knowledgeable voters report looking for good people. - - Adobe Systems 15 Heuristics -> can be found on a ballot list Assumption – voter not fully informed Obrázok, na ktorom je text, písmo, biely, snímka obrazovky Automaticky generovaný popis Adobe Systems 16 Occupation •Jobs as roles through which we learn skills and talents that help us to move up the occupational ladder • •Since voters are choosing candidates to fill or retain a position in government -> past experience is important • •The relevance of previous experience to future performance may make voters likely to rely on this inferred information -> communication of competence • • • Adobe Systems 17 Occupation • Obrázok, na ktorom je text, snímka obrazovky, písmo, číslo Automaticky generovaný popis Adobe Systems 18 Occupation • Obrázok, na ktorom je text, snímka obrazovky, písmo, číslo Automaticky generovaný popis Adobe Systems 19 Title Boas (2014) •Brazilian city council elections – low information contests (2012 - median 52 candidates – 9 seats) • •Paulo Rodrigues de Souza vs. Carlos Fernandes da Silva •Pastor Paulo vs. Dr. Carlos • •Pastor decreases vote intention (except Evangelical voters), doctor increases vote intention • •Group associations and stereotypes – positive features of doctors (intelligent, competent, experienced) vs. many religious groups in Brazil Adobe Systems 20 Photos •A wide range of traits are inferred from facial appearance, and several of these – particularly compassion, likeability, authority and honesty – significantly boost the willingness to vote for candidates displaying such traits => attractiveness • + stereotypes about candidates -> gender and age • •UK (Johns and Shepard 2011) – more attractive (when comparing woman vs. man) are more likely to get votes (when a photo is on a ballot), strongest impact on a least interested and least likely to vote, a tendency to reward younger candidates • •Ireland (Buckley et al. 2007) – voters know the faces of candidates -> 80% accuracy of voting with only photos compared to real elections Adobe Systems 21 Obrázok, na ktorom je text, papier, list, dokument Automaticky generovaný popis Adobe Systems 22 Caution: ballot length •Cunow et al. (2021) •Less is more (3 vs 6 vs 12 candidates) - subjects presented with many options: -learn less about candidates -are more likely to vote based on meaningless heuristics (ballot position) -are more likely to commit voting errors • •Ballot completion lower when having less information on a ballot (Lamb and Perry 2020) Obrázok, na ktorom je text, snímka obrazovky, diagram, rad Automaticky generovaný popis Adobe Systems 23 Ballot order Adobe Systems 24 Ideal vs reality of elections •Free and just elections •Fair electoral system •Equal strength of a vote •Equal chance to get a seat • VS •Chance to get a seat is not the same for candidates ->>>>>> Adobe Systems 25 Ballot order effect •The structure of the ballot affects candidates' chances of winning a seat • •Key attributes: -Length (number of candidates on the list) -Importance of the election and voter’s information bank Adobe Systems 26 Ballot order effect •The ranking of candidates on the list is not only a technical and formal aspect • •Ranking as a key predictor of vote gain (or loss) • •In other words, being at the top of the list is not the same as being in the middle of the list • •More names on the list reduce the attention span of voters who use cognitive shortcuts to make their choice • •This is especially true for lower-profile elections. Adobe Systems 27 Obrázok, na ktorom je text, papier, list, dokument Automaticky generovaný popis Adobe Systems 28 Satisficing theory •Miller and Krosnick 1998 • •Voters are willing to accept suboptimal decisions if they are acceptable enough • •With each additional name on the list, voter interest declines • •Resultant effect: •Support for front-runner candidates (primacy effect) •Support for candidates in lower positions (recency effect) Adobe Systems 29 Other explanations •Voters' efforts to pose as "good citizens": •Important for them to vote no matter who •The vote will go to the "first in line" • •Complicated voting mechanism: •Australia •Awarding points to candidates •Donkey voting - votes awarded in descending or ascending order Adobe Systems How-to-vote card - Wikipedia 2018 Wentworth by-election - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) Adobe Systems Výsledek obrázku pro yes Výsledek obrázku pro no Výsledek obrázku pro yes Adobe Systems 32 Ballot order effect •A lot of evidence from many countries • •California (Ho and Imai 2008), New York (Koppel and Steen 2004), Spain (Bagues and Esteve-Volart 2011), Australia (King and Leigh 2009), Ireland (Regan 2012) • •BOE stronger in polling stations compared to postal voting (Jankowski and Frank 2022) • •The measured effect is often stronger than the difference between the winner of the election and the runner-up • •Better-placed candidates not only get more votes but also have better access to seats Adobe Systems 33 Is it a problem? YES: -If the ranking of the candidates is decided by a chosen criterion which does not say anything about the quality of the candidates - NO: -If the political parties themselves decide on the order of candidates on their lists - -The ranking of candidates is a matter for their political entity and is the result of some consideration (ideological, pragmatic, power) - Adobe Systems 34 Magnetická barevná abeceda (Velká písmena) - LUCEDA.cz Adobe Systems 35 Alphabet •A seemingly neutral element: •Student names in the examiner's notebook •Telephone directories •Statistical lists of municipalities in districts • •If the assumption that the order itself is meaningful holds, the neutrality of the alphabet is eliminated • •Even more so if neutrality (= equality) is part of the constitutionally enshrined right to vote Adobe Systems 36 Alphabet •Why is this a problem? • 1) the order of the candidates is determined based on a completely random element (why not hair colour or height?) • 2) the alphabetical criterion says nothing about the quality of the candidates • 3) statistically, candidates with surnames starting with a letter from the edges of the alphabet have a higher chance of getting to the top/end of the list Adobe Systems 37 Regional elections SK •Spáč, Voda, Zagrapan 2016 • •Results (always against candidates in positions 3 to 3 from the end): •Number of votes: •First position (+2.18 p.p.), second (+1.14), second to last (+1.43), last (+1.19) • •Chances of being elected •First position (+ 75%), last position (+ 49%) • •The distribution of elected representatives' names shifted towards the beginning of the alphabet Adobe Systems Adobe Systems Experiment (Jusko, Spáč, Voda 2019) Ideal Reality Adobe Systems 40 Conclusion •Seemingly unrelated events can have outsized impacts on voter decisions and electoral outcomes, underscoring the complexity of electoral behaviour. • •Two stories important: 1)Election day circumstances may change (sometimes) the behaviour of voters - weather, polling station, people with guns outside it 2) 2)Ballot structure and information – heuristics helping undecided voters, alphabet Adobe Systems 41 Next… "Vote for Rick Astley" Poster by KADABRASTUDIO Adobe Systems 42 Literatute •Berger, J., Meredith, M., & Wheeler, S. C. (2008). Contextual priming: Where people vote affects how they vote. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 105(26), 8846-8849. •Bernhard, R., & Freeder, S. (2020). The more you know: Voter heuristics and the information search. Political Behavior, 42(2), 603-623. •Boas, T. C. (2014). Pastor Paulo vs. Doctor Carlos: Professional titles as voting heuristics in Brazil. Journal of Politics in Latin America, 6(2), 39-72. •Buckley, F., Collins, N., & Reidy, T. (2007). Ballot paper photographs and low-information elections in Ireland. Politics, 27(3), 174-181. •Cunow, S., Desposato, S., Janusz, A., & Sells, C. (2021). Less is more: The paradox of choice in voting behavior. Electoral Studies, 69, 102230. •Hickman, J. (2009). Is electoral violence effective? Evidence from Sri Lanka's 2005 presidential election. Contemporary South Asia, 17(4), 429-435. •Ho, D. E., & Imai, K. (2008). 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Candidate occupations and voter information shortcuts. The Journal of Politics, 67(1), 201-219. •Miller, J. M., & Krosnick, J. A. (1998). The impact of candidate name order on election outcomes. Public Opinion Quarterly, 291-330. •Rauschenbach, M., & Paula, K. (2019). Intimidating voters with violence and mobilizing them with clientelism. Journal of Peace Research, 56(5), 682-696. •Spáč, P., Voda, P., & Zagrapan, J. (2016). Abeceda ako nástroj úspechu. Prípad regionálnych volieb na Slovensku. Sociológia, 48(1). •