Adobe Systems Obrázok, na ktorom je text, snímka obrazovky, kruh, diagram Automaticky generovaný popis Adobe Systems The role of campaigns and polls Jakub Jusko Adobe Systems 3 Campaigns •$8 billion on federal election campaigns during the 2011–2012 cycle; state and local campaigns costing $2.8 billion => total recorded spending on the 2012 campaigns cca $11 billion •Campaigns aim to influence the behaviour of individual citizens, persuading those who might do otherwise to show up at the polls and to make the “right” choice • => also, when, how, why? Adobe Systems 4 Campaigns •Generations of empirical research => campaigns matter (at least some of the time) -> but ”minimal effects” thesis • ÞCampaigns only minimally influence the outcomes of elections Þ ÞHigh degree of stability of individual vote preferences during election years (Lazarsfeld et al. 1944) Þ ÞHigh degree of partisan stability from one election to other (Campbell et al. 1960) Adobe Systems 5 Campaigns •In other words, we can get accuracy by looking at fundamental conditions -> state of the economy, ideological positions of candidates before campaigns, distribution of partisans, incumbency • •Challenge to the relevance of the campaign strategies, events, ads Adobe Systems 6 Campaigns •If only fundamentals would work -> The ghost of Bush v. Gore may haunt the 2020 election - Northeastern Global News Poll: Majority of Voters Say Clinton Won First 2016 Presidential Debate Macron vs. Le Pen: The French presidential election runoff explained | CNN Adobe Systems 7 Campaigns •Campaigns are necessary for the fundamentals to be realized: they “enlighten” otherwise uninformed voters about the fundamentals (Gelman and King, 1993) • •Clarifying public identity, vision for the future, competent and flexible campaign organisation • •Some campaign effects persist, becoming part of the fundamentals • •Other “shocks” likely to matter only if they occur close to the election (decay theory) • •The issue with the direction and effects of campaign <-> vote choice Adobe Systems 8 Campaigns •Learning -Candidates and parties, their names and positions, qualifications, traits, competence,… • •Agenda setting -Limitations of voters for what is important in political universe -Selective attention to a few issues that appear important at the moment -The role of candidates/parties for choosing the agenda (with media) - •Priming - a campaign focuses on a particular topic and voters’ attitudes about the topic become more strongly linked to their vote choice (Peterson 2015) - ÞAbility to make voters learn something and set agenda -> costs something ÞRole of money -> studied mostly in the US (challengers vs incumbents) Adobe Systems 9 Negative campaigns •Significantly more memorable and informative than other ads (Lau et al. 2007) • •No effect on political interest •Aim: reduce support for the target (yes) BUT reduction in support for attacker too •Not definitive impact on reduction of turnout •Reduction of political efficacy and trust in government • •But still, good for agenda setting, issue salience (Carson et al. 2020) Labor's 'Mediscare' campaign capitalised on Coalition history of hostility towards Medicare Adobe Systems 10 Overall effects •Turnout -Yes, mostly GOTV (first turnout lecture) • •Vote choice -Voters reluctant to vote for unfamiliar candidates/parties (Jacobson 2013) -Little evidence that campaigns alter basic predispositions of voters -> rather they induce them to frame the choice -Mostly undecided, swing, volatile voters – changing positions between elections, less polarized opinions of the parties, not enough information or cross-pressures -Mostly uncertain voters (about candidate’s position) -> change in perceptions of the candidate’s traits (Peterson 2015) Adobe Systems 11 Estonia case •Trumm (2022) – 2019 Estonia elections • - Both online and offline campaigns have (similar) strong positive effects on candidates’ electoral performance (in traditional and i-votes) - Online campaigns have become effectively as relevant as offline campaigns in influencing candidates’ electoral fortunes Statistics about Internet voting in Estonia | Elections in Estonia Adobe Systems 12 Polls •Polls as an inherent part of moder election campaigns -media – commenting the results -parties – publicize any favourable results -> more money for campaigns • •Some TV stations base their decision to invite candidates/parties on poll results •Some countries forbid the polls some time before elections • •The role of accuracy of “predictions” Obrázok, na ktorom je text, snímka obrazovky, písmo, značka Automaticky generovaný popis Adobe Systems 13 Polls effects •Bandwagon effect -voters rally their support towards the leading alternative •Underdog effect -voters sway their support towards the trailing alternative ÞNo definitive conclusion which effect is dominant ÞAgranov (2018) – when close elections -> bandwagon; when landslide victory -> underdog ÞDaoust et al. (2020) – 2015 Canadian election -> being exposed to polls is not associated with voter’s likelihood of changing their vote choice, does not affect the propensity to turn out, but improves the ability to forecast the winner •Strategic voting - Voting for less-preferred option to make their vote more effective (not sincere voting) or help prevent a worse outcome Adobe Systems 14 Macron vs. Le Pen: The French presidential election runoff explained | CNN 10 Best Bernie Sanders I Am Once Again Asking For Financial Support Memes - Shut Up And Take My Money Obrázok, na ktorom je text, jedálny lístok, snímka obrazovky, dokument Automaticky generovaný popis A post-Obama survival guide - ABC News Adobe Systems 15 Summary •The role of campaigns in learning, enlightenment, (possibly) vote choice • •Polls as part of the campaign for media, candidates, voters • •Bandwagon and underdog effects •Strategic voting • Adobe Systems 16 Course summary •Different models of turnout •Different factors impacting undecidedness – sociodemographic, partisanship, cross-pressures, political sophistication, strategic considerations, contextual factors •Other formal and informal ways of participation – referendum, petitions, demonstrations •General vote choice predispositions - ideology, class, religion, SES, party identification •Multilevel setting of elections – surge and decline, referendum, balancing, SOE theory •Seemingly unrelated events - natural disasters, sports matches, life-changing events, economic situation and the role of rationality •Seemingly unrelated events during election day – weather, ballot information, ballot order, voting environment •Campaigns and their effects Adobe Systems 17 Next… exam-meme-funny-reaction - Student life Adobe Systems 18 Literatute •Agranov, M., Goeree, J. K., Romero, J., & Yariv, L. (2018). What makes voters turn out: The effects of polls and beliefs. Journal of the European Economic Association, 16(3), 825-856. •Benoit, W. L., Hansen, G. J., & Verser, R. M. (2003). A meta-analysis of the effects of viewing US presidential debates. Communication monographs, 70(4), 335-350. •Carson, A., Martin, A. J., & Ratcliff, S. (2020). Negative campaigning, issue salience and vote choice: Assessing the effects of the Australian Labor party’s 2016 “Mediscare” campaign. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties, 30(1), 83-104. •Cantú, F., & Márquez, J. (2021). The effects of election polls in Mexico's 2018 presidential campaign. Electoral Studies, 73, 102379. •Daoust, J. F., Durand, C., & Blais, A. (2020). Are pre-election polls more helpful than harmful? Evidence from the Canadian case. Canadian Public Policy, 46(1), 175-186. •Finkel, S. E. (1993). Reexamining the" minimal effects" model in recent presidential campaigns. The Journal of Politics, 55(1), 1-21. •Iyengar, S., & Simon, A. F. (2000). New perspectives and evidence on political communication and campaign effects. Annual review of psychology, 51(1), 149-169. •Jacobson, G. C. (2015). How do campaigns matter?. Annual Review of Political Science, 18(1), 31-47. •Lau, R. R., Sigelman, L., & Rovner, I. B. (2007). The effects of negative political campaigns: A meta-analytic reassessment. The Journal of Politics, 69(4), 1176-1209. •Le Pennec, C., & Pons, V. (2019). How do campaigns shape vote choice? Multi-country evidence from 62 elections and 56 TV debates (No. w26572). National Bureau of Economic Research. •Peterson, D. A. (2015). Uncertainty and campaigns: The psychological mechanism behind campaign-induced priming. American Politics Research, 43(1), 109-143. •Trumm, S. (2022). Online versus offline: Exploring the link between how candidates campaign and how voters cast their ballot. European Journal of Political Research, 61(2), 485-502.