The Ground Game:
Harris’s Turnout Machine
vs. Trump’s Unproven
Alliance
Both parties are frenetically chasing votes in the counties that could very well decide the
election. In many places, inexperienced conservative groups are going up against a more
tightly organized Democratic operation.
Lisa Lerer, Julie Bosman, Kellen Browning, Maya King and Jonathan Weisman, The
New York Times Online Edition, October 13, 2024.
In the final weeks of the 2024 election, Vice President Kamala Harris and former
President Donald J. Trump are staking their chances on two radically different theories
of how to win: one tried-and-true, the other untested in modern presidential campaigns.
Ms. Harris’s team is running an expansive version of the type of field operation that has
dominated politics for decades, deploying flotillas of paid staff members to organize and
turn out every vote they can find. Mr. Trump’s campaign is going after a smaller
universe of less frequent voters while relying on well-funded but inexperienced outside
groups to reach a broader swath.
Interviews with more than four dozen voters, activists, campaign aides and officials in
four pivotal counties — Erie County, Pa., Kenosha County, Wis., Maricopa County, Ariz.,
and Cobb County, Ga. — reveal a diffuse, at times unwieldy Republican effort that has
raised questions from party operatives about effectiveness in the face of the more tightly
structured Harris campaign operation. Democrats, in many places, are outpacing
Republicans in terms of paid staff and doors knocked, and are counting on that local
presence to break through a fractured media environment and to reach voters who want
to tune out politics altogether.
“The national discourse kind of falls on deaf ears if it doesn’t feel real and localized,”
said Dan Kanninen, the Harris campaign’s battleground states director. “Ultimately
you’re trying to have a cohesive conversation with a voter across many modes to connect
the dots.”
All told, the number of voters deciding the 2024 election could most likely fit in, and
perhaps not even fill, a college football stadium. Across the seven battleground states,
where the contests are in a dead heat, every ballot counts.
With 2,500 staff members located in 353 offices, the Harris campaign is working to
convert the strongest backers into volunteers and to ensure that sporadic but supportive
voters cast a ballot, all while winning over independents and moderate Republicans.
Last week, the campaign said, it knocked on over 600,000 doors and made over three
million calls through 63,000 volunteer shifts.
I
Iris Acosta, a canvasser for Unite Here, a union aligned with the Democratic Party, knocking on doors in Phoenix this
month. Harris campaign officials said their operation knocked on over 600,000 doors across the swing states last
week. Credit...Ash Ponders for The New York Times
Mr. Trump’s team is largely operating under the assumption that Republicans who
voted for Trump in previous elections will once again back him in large numbers. His
campaign is focusing on a smaller number of infrequent voters who his team believes
will back Mr. Trump if energized to vote. The campaign says it has “hundreds of paid
staff” and over 300 offices across the battleground states. A top Republican strategist
who spoke to campaign leaders, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was
not authorized to speak publicly about the operations, said the campaign was training
40,000 volunteers, called “Trump Force 47 captains,” who were each charged with
mobilizing 25 of these less likely voters — for a total reach of 1 million voters.
“What is very impactful is personal contacts with voters who don’t reliably vote in every
election that are more disconnected from the political process,” said James Blair, the
Trump campaign’s political director.
Outside organizations and super PACs funded by conservative donors are picking up
efforts to reach even more voters. Prominent among them are Turning Point Action, an
organization of young conservatives led by Charlie Kirk, a Trump ally, and America PAC,
a super PAC affiliated with Elon Musk — both of which have little experience running
field programs — as well as the Faith and Freedom Coalition, a more veteran Christian
organization that is focused on engaging conservative evangelical voters.
A door-to-door strategy that so heavily relies on third-party efforts has never been seen
before in a presidential campaign. Mr. Trump’s team is taking advantage of a Federal
Election Commission decision earlier this year that for the first time allows the
campaigns and these types of organizations to coordinate on canvassing operations.
It’s also a financial necessity: Mr. Trump has raised far less in campaign cash than Ms.
Harris. Mr. Musk’s group alone is seeded with tens of millions of dollars of the
billionaire’s own funds.
Both sides agree that a bigger ground game doesn’t ensure victory. In 2016, Hillary
Clinton’s campaign boasted about its operation, while Mr. Trump had almost no field
staff in the key states. Four years later, the second Trump campaign bragged about
knocking on one million doors weekly, while the Biden campaign conducted no inperson
canvassing out of concern about the Covid pandemic.
Here’s a closer look at counties that could decide the election:
In Erie County, Pa., a disjointed Republican
operation is plagued by infighting.
Brian Shank, a superfan of former President Donald J. Trump, with his Trump-themed trailer in Erie, Pa., last month.
Mr. Shank and his allies have been feuding with the Erie County Republican Party chairman. Credit...Michael
Swensen for The New York Times
If there’s one thing that Republican leaders of Erie County, Pa., seem to hate more than
Ms. Harris, it’s the other Republican leaders of their bellwether county in the pivotal
state’s northwest corner.
The divisions are open, acrimonious and may be hindering efforts to register voters and
get out the vote for Mr. Trump, who won this key swing county in 2016 but lost it to
President Biden in 2020. The infighting, according to interviews with multiple people
involved, is a byproduct of the Trump campaign’s decision to largely leave its ground
game not only to local Republican Party offices but also to a variety of outside groups, all
with their own methodologies and demands for attention.
Tom Eddy, the Erie County Republican Party chairman, appears to be at war with a core
group of Republican activists who have styled themselves as the mainstay of the party’s
ground game in the county. Mr. Eddy calls those activists self-promoters and cranks.
The activists, led by a Trump superfan, Brian Shank, call Mr. Eddy mean and stodgy.
“I don’t know if it hurts,” said Harrison Dunn, a young Republican activist in Erie
County who founded his own super PAC allied with Mr. Shank to promote Republicans
in the region. “It doesn’t help, which is its own kind of hurt.”
At times, the groups are right on top of each other. Outside a Trump rally in Erie, a tent
pitched by one group abutted the tent of another — and both were shouting at passersby
to register to vote or sign up for mail-in ballots.
Outside a Trump rally in Erie last month, Turning Point Action and Trump Force 47’s voter registration tents were
abutting each other. Credit...Michael Swensen for The New York Times
The day before, Mr. Shank, a former member of the county council who was ousted by a
Democrat last November, and Kimberly Hunter, a co-founder of Mr. Dunn’s super PAC,
Restore America, stood for hours at Dobbins Landing, a popular spot on Erie’s
waterfront, with about a dozen Trump-flag-waving compatriots from the 814 Patriots
Group, another organization of the former president’s supporters. Mr. Shank’s trailer
featured a rickety mannequin of Mr. Trump in a disheveled suit and tie, dark glasses and
a red MAGA hat that nonetheless attracted passers-by eager to climb a small aluminum
ladder to pose for pictures.
As they did, Ms. Hunter asked whether they were registered to vote and pressed them to
take applications for mail-in ballots. Mr. Dunn, meanwhile, bragged about pushing the
county to clean up its voter rolls after the 2020 election, resulting in a purge of 13,499
Democrats.
“The Republican Party’s not doing anything,” Mr. Shank said. “We are.”
At Erie County Republican headquarters in Millcreek Township, outside the city of Erie,
Mr. Eddy was openly dismissive of those efforts. Three staff members hired by the
Trump campaign under the “Trump Force 47” banner were the real muscle behind the
Republican ground game in the county, he said. Yard signs were piled high. His office
had people fanning out through various neighborhoods to drop off Republican
literature, though he conceded that canvassers were leery of knocking on potentially
hostile doors.
Everyone involved noted the Republican efforts were outgunned by those of the
Democrats, however.
“The Democrats have 11 paid people in the county,” Mr. Eddy marveled. “We have three
and some volunteers.”
On a recent Saturday morning, out of the county Democratic headquarters in downtown
Erie, two successive waves of canvassers went out to persuade the undecided. About 120
canvassers, bolstered by union members from as far away as Buffalo, N.Y., checked in
for the first wave. Another 60 to 70 came two hours later.
“It’s a little scary and intimidating to knock on doors, but really, it’s been good,” said
Conrad Kubaney, 33, who along with his wife, Susie Guisto, 27, has gotten involved in a
presidential campaign for the first time, knocking doors for Ms. Harris. “There’s a sense
that we’re not taking anything for granted.”
Volunteers in Kenosha County, Wis., test the
Trump strategy.
Sandy Wiedmeyer, the chair of the Kenosha County Republican Party, stood in what was
once a living room inside the small brick bungalow that is now a county party
headquarters.
Boxes of doughnuts had just arrived. More than a dozen volunteers were crowded
around a table, ready to knock on doors and catch potential voters at home on a
Saturday morning. A cardboard cutout of Mr. Trump peeked out through the window,
giving a smiley thumbs-up to cars whizzing by.
“I will tell you, the ground game is what wins elections,” Ms. Wiedmeyer told the group,
her French bulldog, Chloe, at her feet. “As many times as we can hit people and have
personal conversations about our candidate, it makes all the difference in the world.”
Volunteers gathered at the headquarters of the Kenosha County Republican Party in Kenosha, Wis., last month.
Republican groups have knocked on at least 3,000 doors of potential voters in the county, while Democrats have
knocked on 25,000 since Vice President Kamala Harris has been their nominee.Credit...Jamie Kelter Davis for The
New York Times
Enthusiasm like Ms. Wiedmeyer’s is plentiful in Kenosha, a county that Mr. Trump
captured in 2016 and again in 2020, despite Wisconsin flipping to President Biden four
years ago.
But here, as in many of Wisconsin’s other 71 counties, Republicans are up against a
more formidable, organized and well-funded Democratic ground game.
In Kenosha, one of the largest counties in the state, Republicans have knocked on at
least 3,000 doors of potential voters, and they expect to ramp up efforts in the final
weeks, according to Ms. Wiedmeyer, who said she did not know of efforts by Turning
Point Action and America PAC, which recently combined their operations in the state, in
her area.
By comparison, since Ms. Harris has been the Democratic nominee, Democrats have
knocked on 25,000 doors in the county, according to a Democratic Party spokesman.
The Republicans set out in their cars with paper and pens, carrying a list of addresses on
a clipboard and a stack of literature to hang on doorknobs.
They were trying to reach those low-propensity Republican voters, the people who are
conservative but have not been consistently voting in recent elections.
The names and addresses on their lists did not always yield their targets.
One of the first people on the list of one group of canvassers was a man who, when
approached, said he was a Democrat. They politely thanked him and moved on.
Another man whose name was on the list told canvassers that he had voted Republican
for decades and was already a solid supporter of Mr. Trump.
In Cobb County, Ga., Democrats target the voters
who helped power their narrow 2020 victory.
Supporters of Ms. Harris have enthusiastically attended phone bank and door knocking shifts in Cobb County, Ga., a
racially diverse corner of the Atlanta suburbs that helped drive Mr. Biden’s win in the state four years ago.
Credit...Kendrick Brinson for The New York Times
The rush of supporters arriving for phone bank and door knocking shifts on a warm
Saturday in October caused a traffic jam in the parking lot of a Harris campaign outpost
in Mableton, Ga.
The crush of cars forced volunteers and staff members to direct traffic for several
minutes while groups of canvassers left the office with piles of pro-Harris placards in
hand, making room for fresh faces to trickle in.
The sheer number of enthusiastic supporters showing up in Cobb County — the racially
diverse corner of the populous Atlanta suburbs that helped drive Mr. Biden’s win in the
state four years ago — was indicative of the renewed energy Ms. Harris’s candidacy has
given the party. Democrats in Georgia are targeting as many people as possible, from
staunch liberals in the heart of Atlanta to independents and even moderate Republicans
in the city’s suburbs and exurbs. The campaign boasts 26 offices statewide, complete
with 200 paid staff members.
The razor-thin margins that could decide the election were laid bare at the doors,
however.
Standing on her front porch, Agnes McGhee, 75, said that she planned to support Ms.
Harris this November. Originally from Trinidad, she was motivated to secure her
citizenship after hearing Mr. Trump’s speeches demonizing immigrants. His remarks
compelled her to do what she could to vote him out, she said.
“I went and gave my citizenship up when I saw what was going on. I said, ‘I’m living
here, I need to vote,’” She said. She later added, “When he’s making those remarks, that
bothers me.”
Just across the street, canvassers with Ms. Harris’s campaign were quickly rebuffed by a
woman who shouted through her window that her family would be voting for Mr.
Trump in November.
They moved to the next house.
Trump-allied Turning Point focuses on Maricopa
County, Ariz.
Amanda Blake, who works for Turning Point Action, canvassing in a Mesa, Ariz., neighborhood this month. Ms. Blake
is participating in a program aimed at turning out Republicans who do not usually vote. Credit...Anna Watts for The
New York Times
Dave Heidebrecht walked along the sidewalk of an upscale neighborhood in Gilbert,
Ariz., smiling in satisfaction. He had just rung the doorbell of a house in the triple-digit
October heat, hoping to ensure that a woman living there had a plan to vote for Mr.
Trump.
Her name was on a list of roughly 1,000 infrequent voters who Mr. Heidebrecht, 56, a
full-time canvasser for Turning Point Action, was responsible for corralling in the East
Valley area of Phoenix.
Instead he found her son, 18-year-old Duy Pham, who was also planning on voting for
Mr. Trump but needed some clarity on how to turn in his ballot.
“I almost view myself as a holy kick in the pants,” Mr. Heidebrecht said.
Outside groups like his say they are swarming to help boost Mr. Trump around the
sprawling Phoenix suburbs.
The Faith and Freedom Coalition had knocked on more than 195,000 doors throughout
the state as of early October, with about 75 paid staff members and 100 volunteers
working there, according to a person familiar with the group’s efforts. Mr. Musk’s
America PAC said it knocked on about 250,000 doors in Arizona earlier this summer
but declined to share updated figures. And Ashley Hayek, the executive director of
America First Works, said her conservative group had knocked on 345,000 doors so far
in Maricopa, with close to 200 volunteers active in Arizona — mostly in Maricopa
County — each day.
Locals, including a mix of voters at doors and strategists in the area, say they have not
seen an extensive presence from some of the conservative organizations on the ground
in Phoenix. But that does not mean they are not active, the groups argue: The effort to
reach those infrequent voters in under-covered parts of the county is just taking them
farther afield.
Some Republican operatives have questioned the wisdom of relying so heavily on
outside operations.
“When it’s done by a bunch of different groups and not the campaign, you run into
problems with redundancy, efficiency,” said Tyler Montague, a local Republican political
strategist who is not a supporter of Mr. Trump or of Turning Point, though he noted
their operation appeared effective.
The Harris campaign has six offices and 54 paid staff members in Maricopa County, and
knocked on about 90,000 doors between July and early October, according to Jacques
Petit, a spokesman. That does not account for its many allied groups, like the Unite Here
labor union, which began knocking on doors in May and anticipates hitting 900,000 in
Maricopa County alone by Election Day, according to Brendan Walsh, the executive
director of Worker Power, an allied group.
The Trump campaign did not provide specifics as to staff or campaign offices, but said it
was knocking on doors — but would not say how many — as it prioritized reaching hardto-get
voters.
David Heidebrecht, left, knocked on a door in Gilbert, Ariz., this month hoping to ensure that a woman living there
had a plan to vote for Mr. Trump. He was met instead by her son, Duy Pham, who was also planning on voting for Mr.
Trump but needed some clarity on how to turn in his ballot. Credit...Anna Watts for The New York Times
All Republican efforts appeared to be dwarfed by Turning Point Action, led by Mr. Kirk.
Headquartered in Phoenix, Turning Point has been laying the groundwork since
February for an all-out “chase the vote” program aimed at turning out Republicans who
do not usually vote. It is spending tens of millions of dollars on the effort and ensuring it
has staff in every one of the hundreds of precincts in Arizona it has identified as most
crucial.
The goal has been to have local staff members get to know residents of these key
Phoenix-area precincts on a personal level over many months so that efforts to persuade
them to vote will feel more natural and less transactional. Voters answering their doors
on a recent Thursday were clearly friendly with the Turning Point staff members who
knocked, recognizing them from previous rounds of outreach and in some cases inviting
them inside.
The organization would not say how many doors it had knocked on, but Tyler Bowyer,
its chief operating officer, said it had many hundreds of staff members and thousands of
volunteers in Arizona, and was working to turn out about 400,000 people, half of whom
are in its high-priority precincts.
Mr. Bowyer rejected the notion that Republicans relying on outside groups to motivate
voters was a gamble or even a novel approach.
“The question isn’t: Will it work?” Mr. Bowyer said. “Not doing it is like working with
fewer resources.”
Lisa Lerer is a national political reporter for The Times, based in New York. She has covered
American politics for nearly two decades. More about Lisa Lerer
Julie Bosman is the Chicago bureau chief for The Times, writing and reporting stories from
around the Midwest. More about Julie Bosman
Kellen Browning is a Times reporter covering the 2024 election, with a focus on the swing states
of Nevada and Arizona. More about Kellen Browning
Maya King is a politics reporter covering the Southeast, based in Atlanta. She covers campaigns,
elections and movements in the American South, as well as national trends relating to Black
voters and young people. More about Maya King
Jonathan Weisman is a politics writer, covering campaigns with an emphasis on economic and
labor policy. He is based in Chicago. More about Jonathan Weisman
A version of this article appears in print on Oct. 14, 2024, Section A, Page 1 of the New York edition with
the headline: In Final Days, Campaigns Diverge on Ground Game.