Chinese foreign policy drivers Richard Q. Turcsanyi • C:\Users\ricky\Desktop\PhD\sucasna vychodna azia\shenzhen.jpg G7 vs. Emerging countries • C:\Users\Ricky\Desktop\Mendelu\EU policies towards BRICS\Chart6.jpg C:\Users\Ricky\Desktop\Mendelu\EU policies towards BRICS\main-qimg-16960e1c33a4655d456b5ab05f4acf44.jpg • Rio and Shanghai metro maps HDP 0 1000 1820 2000 Western Europe 11,1 10,2 163,7 6 961 Western Offshoots 0,5 0,8 13,5 8 456 Japan 1,2 3,2 20,7 2 582 Group A 12,8 14,1 198,0 17 998 Latin America 2,2 4,6 14,1 2 942 SSSR and Eastern Europe 3,5 5,4 60,9 1 793 Asia (ex. Japan) 77,0 78,9 390,5 9 953 Africa 7,0 13,7 31,0 1 039 Goup B 89,7 102,7 496,5 15 727 World 102,5 116,8 694,4 33 726 Bill. USD 1990 HDP per capita 0 1000 1820 2000 Western Europe 450 400 1 232 17 921 Western Offshoots 400 400 1 201 26 146 Japan 400 425 669 20 413 Group A 443 405 1 130 21 470 Latin America 400 400 665 5 795 SSSR and Eastern Europe 400 400 667 4 354 Asia (ex. Japan) 450 450 575 2 936 Africa 425 416 418 1 368 Goup B 444 440 573 3 102 World 444 435 667 5 709 Income per capita USD 1990 GDP (nominal) • GDP (PPP) • • • Foreign policy analysis •1. What China has been doing in the foreign policy? •History (1950s, 1960s, 1970s, 1989) •Bilateral relations (Rapprochement with the US, Korean War, Vietnamese War, Third Taiwan crisis, relations with Japan) •Concepts and directions (War and revolution, Peace and development, Taoguang Yanghui=Low profile FP, Peaceful rise/development, Chinese dream, Assertive FP) •China-CEE (late start, golden age in 1950s, sino-soviet split, improvement in 1980s, post-1989 divergance, post 2008 crisis improvements) •2. Why China has been doing this? FP levels of analysis •Systematic level •Character of the international system, power distribution •State level •Strategic culture (ideas, identity - „irrational“ factors) •Bureaucratic structure (material - „rational“ - factors) •Media and public opinion •Individual level •Personality of leader • C:\Users\ricky\Desktop\beijing-forbidden-city.jpg • C:\Users\ricky\Desktop\PhD\sucasna vychodna azia\12-China-Westrn-Influ-LG.jpg C:\Users\ricky\Desktop\rape of nanjing movie.jpg C:\Users\ricky\Desktop\nanjing-nanjing-04.jpg C:\Users\ricky\Desktop\rape_nanking.jpg • C:\Users\ricky\Desktop\paintingmaotam.jpg C:\Users\ricky\Desktop\Mao10.1.49.jpg Chinese foreign policy since 1948 •1950s: “Leaning to one side” •1960s: “Fighting with two fists” •1970s: “United front” •1980s: Opening up and reform - Peace and development •1990s: “Taoguang yanghui” (Biding time, keeping low profile – hiding brightness, cherishing obscurity) •2000s: Peaceful rise/development •2010s: Assertiveness, Winning political allies vs achieving economic interests, Soft power Future outlook •“Europe’s past will be Asia’s future” •J. Mearsheimer, A. Friedberg • •“Asia’s past will be Asia’s future“ •D. Kang Chinese strategic culture •Confucian •Traditional philosophy, morality, benevolence, justice, harmony, order •Realpolitik •A. Johnston •Historical preference of aggressive solutions •Dualistic •Peaceful self-perception vs. pro-active/aggressive behavior •Cult of defense • C:\Users\ricky\Desktop\PhD\sucasna vychodna azia\mapy\Mapa_de_Asia.jpg • C:\Users\ricky\Desktop\density asia.jpg • C:\Users\ricky\Desktop\China-ethnolinguistic_2.jpg • C:\Users\ricky\Desktop\China-island-400_2.jpg • C:\Users\ricky\Desktop\island chains.jpg Energy supplies • C:\Users\ricky\Desktop\PhD\Contemporary Chinese FP\China - full energy import map.png • C:\Users\Ricky\Dropbox\..DIZERTACKA\PhD pics as attachments\china-energy.png Chinese export partners Chinese import partners • C:\Users\ricky\Desktop\PhD\sucasna vychodna azia\shenzhen.jpg http://transitoriented.design/chinese-metro-evolution/ Actors of Chinese FP •Party (Politbyro SC) •State Council (Vice Premier for FP/State Councilor, Ministry of Foreign Affairs) •Military • •à Coordination: small leading groups • •New actors •Public •Media •Researchers, universities, think tanks •Provinces •Economic corporations • C:\Users\ricky\Desktop\china_govt2.png • D:\Contemporary Chinese FP\20121105_China1_2.jpg Informal institutions •Consensual decision making •Generation ‘core’ and retirement •Informal personal relations •Interest groups •Tendency to preserve status quo and keep the unity •Risk aversion •„Collective leadership, democratic centralism, individual preparation, decisions made at meetings.“ Changes in Chinese decision making process •Professionalization and institutionalization •Rise of technical capabilities of personal •Development of relations with the rest of the world •Pluralization and decentralization •Broadening and deepening of decision making structure •Changes of the role of a leader •Globalization C:\Users\ricky\Desktop\PSC.jpg C:\Users\ricky\Desktop\Xi-Jinping.png Xi Jinping (1953) •Origin/experience: Shaanxi, Henan, Hebei, Fujian, Zhejiang, Shanghai •Sent to countryside during Cultural Revolution •His father Xi Zhongxun: revolutionary, vice-premier, purged and imprisoned during Cultural Revolution, then governor of Guangdong •Technical and legal education (Tsinghua), study trip in the US (Iowa) •Interest in FP, experience with army • Who is Xi? •Calm, comfortable in the position of the leader •Man of the people, hard worker •Reformer, but not democratic •He likes literature , quotes Chinese classics (and Mao) •His wife Peng Liyuan, his daughter studies at Harvard •New trinity: Confucian-Daoist, Marxist-Maoist, Dengist-capitalist, •plus moralism vs. legalism •Three historical comparisons: emperor Qin Shi Huang, Li Shimin (Tang dynasty), Mao Zedong •Chinese dream, national rejuvenation, Belt and Road initiative • Public opinion in China •Main goal of Chinese government? •Regime security -> legitimacy •Economic development •Ideology (communism v. nationalism) • •-> Preventing a rival interest group from emerging • •FP: relatively open political space for public • •Government supporting of nationalism? C:\Users\ricky\Desktop\PhD\Contemporary Chinese FP\satisfaction rate.gif • Satisfaction rates with government • • C:\Users\ricky\Desktop\PhD\Contemporary Chinese FP\public concerns in china.png • C:\Users\ricky\Desktop\China-Beijing-pollution-008.jpg • C:\Users\ricky\Desktop\PhD\Contemporary Chinese FP\US2 Demographics.jpg • C:\Users\ricky\Desktop\PhD\Contemporary Chinese FP\720px-Gini_since_WWII_svg.png GINI (2013) • C:\Users\ricky\Desktop\PhD\Contemporary Chinese FP\World_Income_Gini_Map_(2013).svg.png • C:\Users\ricky\Desktop\PhD\Contemporary Chinese FP\china-demographics-skewed-sex-ratio.jpg Chinese foreign policy goals in 2010s •Chinese foreign policy under Xi Jinping is oriented predominantly towards political goals (vs. economic) •Chinese external national interests are closely linked with the Chinese domestic politics (international success = domestic stability) •China is interested in soft power with “Chinese characteristics” (what Chinese people think others think of them) •