The Unsleeping Guardian: Press Freedom, RegimeType, and Political Stability in Latin America
Nora Corasaniti
University of Maryland Baltimore County, Department of Political Science
Abstract
This research set out to explore the relationship between regime type, political stability,
and press freedom in Latin American nations.The study of press freedom is and has
always been an important concept to understand. Press freedom is linked to almost
every facet of governance. It was theorized that nations that are democratic are also
often more transparent and open, allowing the press to report on government
interactions and happenings of the nation. Furthermore, nations that are politically
stable are often less violent and foster an environment in which a free press corps can
thrive without fear of repercussions for reporting the news about the
government as truthfully and accurately as possible. Employing data from Freedom
House's 2015 "Freedom in the Press" study and data from theWorld Bank's Worldwide
Governance Indicators 2014 annual study, various statistical tests were performed to
determine the size and significance of the relationship between variables in the way
predicted by the research hypotheses. Quantitative results revealed that regime type and
political stability both had a significant impact on press freedom.Two brief case studies
of Columbia and Uruguay were also presented as a means to better understand the
causal relationships between the variables.
Hypotheses
H1: Nations that are more democratic in regime type will have more freedom of the
press.
H2: Nations that are more politically stable will have more freedom of the press.
Methods: Quantitative Data
Concept Indicator Variable
DV: Press
Freedom
Freedom House:
Indexed set of questions in which
answers were assigned a numerical
value. Composite scores from the set of
questions determined press freedom.
Variable with ordinal
measurement:
0 means completely free
press, 100 means not at all
free press
IV 1: Regime
Type
Freedom House:
Indexed set of questions in which
answers were assigned a numerical
value. Composite scores from the set of
questions determined regime type.
Binary variable:
1: more democratic (1-2.5)
2: less democratic (3-7)
IV 2: Political
Stability
Worldwide Governance Indicators:
Aggregate data compiled from various
sources were manipulated to fitWGI
scale.
Variable with ordinal
measurement:
-2.5: Less political stability
+2.5: More political stability
Nations included in the study were Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa
Rica, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras,
Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay, andVenezuela. Ordinary least
squares regression analysis was used to determine relative significance of each
variable.
Methods: Qualitative Data
After performing all statistical tests and transformations, two nations were selected
to confirm the research hypotheses using process tracing.With a press freedom score
of 24, a democratic regime type, and a political stability score of +1.00, Uruguay is a
perfect model for the hypothesis that more democratic and more politically stable
nations will have more press freedom. Conversely, Colombia is a model for the reverse
with a more autocratic regime, a political stability score of -1.12, and a press freedom
score of 55. Research was gathered from the individual country reports of Freedom
House’s studies and news outlets such as the BBC and analyzed for evidence of causal
relationships.
Descriptive Statistics
Minimum
value
Maximum
value
Mean Std.
deviat
ion
Dependent
Variable
Freedom of
the Press
17: Free 91: Not
free
51.75 17.52
Independent
variables
Nominal
measurement
RegimeType More
Democ
ratic:
45%
Less
Democ
ratic:
55%
Ordinal
measurement
Political
Stability
-1.12: Less
stable
1.00: More
stable
-.1340 .54860
Data Analysis
Independent
Variable
Model 1
β
(St. Error)
Model 2
β
(St. Error)
Model 3
β
(St. Error)
RegimeType 24.394*
(.000)
22.939*
(.005)
Political Stability -14.487*
(.045)
-2.388
(.722)
Constant 13.939 49.809 15.875
N 20 20 20
Adj. R2 .477 .162 .451
Ordinary Least Squares Regression for Press Freedom
In the quantitative data, the variables both achieved significance in
single linear regression. However, only regime type achieved
significance in multi-variable regression, signaling that it has more
explanatory power over press freedom than political stability.
Theoretically speaking, regime type drives many factors in
governance including press freedom whereas political stability is
more abstract in its effects, therefore explaining the higher
significance of regime type.This could also be explained by invalid
indicators in the aggregate data used byWorldwide Governance
Indicators. However, the research hypotheses were confirmed in
the quantitative testing.This result is only generalizable to the
countries of Latin America and perhaps those with similar regime
type and political conditions.This fact is due to the most similar
system design. Nevertheless, this study has revealed some
interesting facts about Latin American governance that can be used
to further explore the aspects of press freedom there and around
the globe.
Qualitative Case Studies
Uruguay
• Constitutionally protected
rights to free expression and
press
• Affluent
• Liberal laws
• Racial and economic divisions
prompted 19th century civil
war spanning into the 20th
century
• Stabilization post-civil war in
1967
• Democratic regime
• Politically stable
Resources
“Colombia Country Report.” 2015. Freedom
House. Web.
“Colombia Country Profile.” 2015. BBC. Web.
Dunham et al. 2015. “Freedom of the Press
2015.” Freedom House. 1-32.
Dunham et al. 2015. “Freedom in theWorld
2015.” Freedom House. 1-32.
“Uruguay Country Report.” 2015. Freedom House.
Web.
“Uruguay Profile.” 2015. BBC. Web.
“Worldwide Governance Indicators: Political
Stability and the Absence ofTerrorism.” 2014.
Worldwide Governance Indicators.Web.
Photo courtesy of operationworld.com
Photo courtesy of operationworld.com
Colombia
• Region plagued by violence and
cartel activity
• Colombian government
“synonymous” with human
rights crimes
• Society is very class-based and
unequal
• Though is a republican form of
government, there is no true civil
liberty or democracy
• Not at all politically stable as the
region has succumbed to
violence and upheaval
Acknowlegements
ManyThanks to :
Dr. Carolyn Forestiere
UMBC Department of Political Science
Discussion
* Denotes significance at p<0.05