Russian Academy of Sciences
Water Problems Institute
Research Council RAS "Water Resources of Land"
Russian National Committee of
International Association of Hydrological Sciences
Russian Ministry of Natural Resources
Federal Agency of Water Resources
EXTREME HYDROLOGICAL EVENTS
IN ARAL AND CASPIAN SEA REGION
The proceedings of International Scientific Conference
Moscow, 18-21 October 2006
Moscow
2006
Russian Academy of Sciences
Water Problems Institute
Research Council RAS "Water Resources of Land"
Russian National Committee of
International Association of Hydrological Sciences
Russian Ministry of Natural Resources
Federal Agency of Water Resources
EXTREME HYDROLOGICAL EVENTS
IN ARAL AND CASPIAN SEA REGION
The proceedings of International Scientific Conference
Moscow, 19-20 October 2006
Conference Organizing Committee:
Chairman of Workshop Organizing Committee
Corr. member of RAS Victor I. Danilov-Danilyan, Russia
Vice-chairmans of Workshop Organizing Committee
Prof. Mikhail V. Bolgov, Russia
Prof. Jochen Froebrich, Germany
Members of Organizing Committee
Acad. Martin G. Khublarian, Russia
Acad. Oleg F. Vassiliev, Russia
Prof. Alexander Ye. Asarin, Russia
Prof. Rene Letolle, France
Prof. Vladimir Yu. Georgievsky, Russia
Prof. Schavkat Rakhimov, Uzbekistan
Prof. Inom Normatov, Tajikistan
Dr. Jean-Francois Cretoux, France
Scientific Secretary
Dr. Nadezhda I. Sentsova, Russia
Editor-in-chief ­ Prof. Mikhail V. Bolgov
The Proceeding includes the reports of the International scientific conference Extreme
hydrological events in Aral and Caspian Sea region organized by Water Problems Institute
of Russian Academy of Sciences in Moscow in October 19-20, 2006.
The reports are distributed into the sections:
1. Hydrological problems of closed seas (lakes).
2. Stochastic models of hydrological processes.
3. Prediction of snow and rain runoff by the condition of climate changes.
4. Extreme hydrological events near the coasts of inner water bodies.
5. Low-water periods on the rivers.
6. Water management problems in the Central Asia.
The Proceeding has been published by the financial support of the Russian Academy of
Sciences.
Introduction
Extreme hydrological events are the traditional objects of numerous researches both in scientific,
and in applied projects. Significant growth of interest to this theme is connected both with the cases of
outstanding (concerning the scale of runoff and damages) flooding of various genesis observed in last
years, and with changes taking place in spheres of water legislation, technical regulation, standardization
and occurrence of new legal, social, economic, ecological, etc. problems.
At the conference, it is supposed to discuss the broad range of the hydrological and water-economic
problems connected with occurrence and development of extreme phenomena. Alongside with
consideration of methods and models of hydrological forecasting (stochastic and genetic ones), great
attention will be payed to regional water problems. Among the latter, it is necessary to note the problem of
forecasting of the level of Caspian Sea and dangerous processes associated with it on its coast and in deltas
of rivers flowing into it, as well as hydrological aspects of the Aral crisis.
This scientific conference represents the third action on the theme of the extreme hydrological events spent
by Water Problem Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences. At the conference, the results of various
international projects are widely represented, among which it is necessary to note the program of
researches of the Aral Sea basin supported by the European Union. The international project "Jauhun"
begun in 2006 initiated a number of publications of this collection. The subjects connected with water
problems of the Caspian Sea basin is supported by Federal Agency of Water Resources of the Ministry of
Natural Resources of Russia. Fundamental hydrological and climatic researches are financed by programs
of the Russian Academy of Sciences, the Russian Fund of Basic Researches and other organizations.
Publications of this collection certainly do not cover all the aspects of the problem of the
description and forecasting of extreme hydrological events. However, the authors of reports and the
organizers of the Conference hope that this action will be rather useful for the exchange of experience of
the analysis of extreme events and will promote expansion of researches in this field of hydrometeorology.
INTRODUCTION 303
Section 1. Hydrological problems of closed seas (lakes) 305
Borzenkova I.I., Lemeshko N.A.
The moisture condition of the large regions in the Northern Hemisphere during the
global warming or global cooling in the present and geological time (on the example
of the Aral-Caspian basin)
307
Buharitsin P.I.
Features of ice conditions in the lower reachers of Volga and Nothern Caspian sea
during the temperate winter of 2006 year.
311
Crétaux J.-F., Kouraev A., Papa F., Cazenave A., Bergé-Nguyen M.
Aral and Caspian Sea monitoring form satellite altimetry
316
Gurov F.N., Kravtsova V.I., Mikhailov V.N.
Disasterous changes in regime and dimensions of the Aral sea during the last 45 years
321
Kozhevnikova I.A., Shvejkina V.I.
Probability forecast of the Caspian sea level fluctuations based on nonlinear model
326
Kravtsova V.I.
Degradation of the Aral sea and surrounding territories: specific phenomena observed
with satellite imagery
331
Mayev E.G.
Extreme regression of the Caspian sea in early holocene
336
Prokopiev S.I.
Modelling thermodynamic properties of Aral water in a wide range of salinity
341
Semchukov A.N., Ovchinnikova T.E.
Experience of application of bulk and one-dimensional vertical models to description
of hydrology regime of the west part of Aral sea
343
Trubetskova M.D., Filimonova M.K.
On the estimation of evaporation from the surface of the Caspian sea in modern
period.
346
Vasiliev O.F., Ovchinnikova T.E., Semchukov A.N., Prokopiev S.I., Ievlev K.V.,
Korobkina E.A.
Modeling of hydrological and hydrophysical processes in the western part of Aral sea
352
Zavialov P.O.
Present hydrological state and variability of the Large Aral sea
355
Section 2. Stochastic models of hydrological processes 361
Georgiadi A.G., Milyukova I.P.
River runoff within Volga river basin during epochs of global climate warming
363
Lyubushin A.A., Bolgov M.V., Maxutova M.V.
Wavelet analysis of Volga, Don and Dnepr basin hydrological regime long-term
oscillations
368
Osipova N.V.
Estimation of regional curves of distribution of maximal water runoff of rain floods
using the method of probability of cumulative probabilities (the case of the Caspian
region).
372
Polonskiy V.F., Ostroumova L.P.
Long-term fluctuations of river discharge in the mouths of russian rivers which falls
into aspian sea
377
Zakarin E.A., Balakay L.A., Dedova T.V.
Hydrodynamics modeling of the north part of Caspian sea
382
Section 3. Prediction of snow and rain runoff by the condition of
climate changes
387
Khaustov V. A.
Sensitivity of likelihood characteristics of the maximal drain anthropogenous change
of the climate
389
Levit-Gurevich L.K.
Computer realization of similarity method for long-term daily forecasting of water
reservoirs lateral inflow
394
Nassery H.R.
Simulation of Rainfall­Runoff Process and Water Balance Components in
Garmabdasht Catchment (Southeast of Caspian Sea, Iran)
400
Normatov I. S., Froebrich J., Petrov G.N., Ollson O.
Monitoring of hydrological parameters of Vakhsh river in climate change conditions
406
Section 4. Extreme hydrological events near the coasts of inner water
bodies
411
Buharicin P. I., Andreev A. N.
The influence of the sun activity the long-time climate events in the North-Caspian
region for the period till 2017
413
Gorelits O. V., Zemlyanov I. V., Pavlovskii A. E., Sapozhnikova A. A.,
Postavik P. V., and Yagotintsev V. N.
Catastrophic floods in the Terek delta in 2002 and 2005
419
Ikramova M.R., Khodjiev A.K.,Ahmedhodjaeva I.A., Nemtinov V.A.,
Misirhanov H.I.
Bed deformation of plot of land attached to a dam in lower pool of Tuyamuyun
hydrocomplex
424
Koronkevich N.I., Barabanova E.A., Zaitseva I.S.
Anthropogenous factors of extreme hydrological situations in the Aral-Caspian
region
428
Krasnozhon G.F., Kovalev E.E.
Streamflow spreading features on the Volga shallow offing at low and extremely low
sea levels
431
Kravtsova V.I., Mikhailov V.N.
Catastrophic events in the Caspian coastal zone and river deltas under recent sea level
changes: investigations using multitemporal space images
435
Lahijani H., Tavakoli V.
Records of Caspian sea-level fluctuations along Iranian coast during the past 2500
years
440
Sapanov M.K.
On the synchronism of oscillations of the Caspian sea level and ground waters on the
pricaspian plain in the second half of the XX century
443
Section 5. Low-water periods on the rivers 447
Pichugina S.V.
Winter low flows on the upper Ob river
449
Sentsova N.I.
Application of the cluster analysis in the problems of regionalization of the Caspian
basin by characteristics of the river runoff seasonal variability
453
Section 6. Water management problems in the Central Asia 459
Aladin N., Micklin P., Plotnikov I., Keyser D., Piriulin D., Smurov A., Cretaux J.F.,
Egorov A., Ballatore T., Karimov B., Ermakhanov Z., Boroffka N.
Biodiversity of the Aral sea and possible ways of rehabilitating and conserving its
remnant water bodies
461
Berdyanski V.N., Berdyanski V.V., Ognevchuk V.N.
Ecological and economic proposal to create favorable environment in the amudarya
river basin
466
Bolgov M.V., Ismaiylov G.Kh., Fedorov V.M.
Water resources management model of Amu Darya river basin taking into account
water quality
469
Bolgov M.V., Sotnikova L.F.
About the estimated probability of excess of maximal water runoff within
management problems of water resources systems
474
Dukhovny V.A., Sorokin A.G., Tuchin A.I.
Water resources management challenges in Central Asia. Future of the Aral Sea
478
Forkutsa I., Shirokova Yu. I.
Water management at the cotton irrigation and the problems of secondary soil
salinization in the Khorezm region of Uzbekistan
482
Glovatsky O. Ya., Pak O.Y.
Problems of water lifting engine systems control in the republic of Uzbekistan in the
Aral sea basin
486
Golubash T.Yu., Sentsova N.I.
Research of water-salt regime elements and irrigated lands productivity with the
purpose of management of water-economic systems in the Aral region
490
Hudajberganov J.H., Lysenko O.G., Sorokin A.G.
The analysis of actual condition of water resources management in the Amu Darya
river basin at the regional level
495
Iofyn Z.K.
Ecologically permissible river runoff withdrawal
499
Ismagilov H.A., Kan E..
Channel processes on the Amudarya River in conditions of water resources
management
502
Ismaiylov G.Kh., Shatalova K.Yu.
Estimation of water losses in the middle course of the Amu darya River
507
Nurmaganbetov D.Sh.
The management problems of waterfarm objects in the interstate uses of AralCaspian
region transstate rivers
511
Olsson O., Normatov I., Sorokin A., Froebrich J.
Sedimentation processes and future reservoir capacities of the Nurek reservoir
515
Rakhimov Sh., Begimov I.
The problem of management and modeling of water resources of the Aral sea basin
521
Rasulov U.R.
Problems of the water-account on small drainage systems and ways of their solution
524
Sattarov M.A., Eshmirzoyev I.E., Rakhimov F.
Problems of estimation and rational use of water resources of Aral sea basin
525
Sorokin A.G.
Management of water and sediment modes of reservoirs in the Amudatya basin: tools
and assessment
531
Sorokin A.G., Tyugay V.K.
Adaptation of the European Union's hydrological model for the flow formation zone
to the Chirchik river basin
535
Zavgorodnyaya D.
Transfer from administrative-territorial to Basin principle of water management in
Uzbekistan: chance for optimal water use? case from Amudarya River basin
539