Potential Effects of Climate Change 1. Environment Here are some statements about the environment. Can you identify the authors? What is your opinion? +--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+ |Environmentalism is a religion that is based more on political ambitions than science. | | | |Communism has been replaced by the threat of an ambitious environmentalism. | | | | | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| |Resources would be better spent investing in ending hunger and disease in developing | |countries than on climate change projects. | | | | | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| |Our world faces a true planetary emergency. | | | | | | | | | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| |Freezing carbon emissions would harm Americans and lead to "no new industry, no new people | |and no new cars". | +--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+ Bjorn Lomborg, Director of the Danish Environmental Assessment Institute Al Gore, former US vice-president Joe Barton, the leading Republican on the House Energy and Commerce Committee Václav Klaus 2. Potential effects of climate change To find out how much you know about the topic, complete the table (page 2) § In the first box, write what you know about the topic. § In the second box, write what you would like to learn. § Finally, read the text and complete the new information into the third box. § If the ideas from the article are identical with yours, tick them off. § If there are no answers to your questions, add a question mark ‘?’ 3. Global Warming - questions • Is the current global warming just part of a normal cycle? Why? • Who can we turn to for the most reliable information? • Can we trust new, sophisticated scientific technology, such as computer modeling, that says our environment is in trouble? • What will happen if the technology is right? • What will happen if the technology is wrong? • What are the differences between the terms CO2 emissions, GHGs, and ozone depletion +---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | I know | I would like to know | I have learnt from the text | | | | | | | | | |-------------------------+------------------------------+------------------------------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | +---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+ 4. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), February 2007, Paris. What do you know about the event? What are the findings? +--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+ |Global climate change is "very likely" to have a human cause, an influential group of | |scientists has concluded. | +--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+ Below you will find the key findings from Paris. However, the expressions of probability are omitted. First try to identify the probability of occurrence as defined in the IPCC Report. +-----------------------------------------------------------------+ |more than 99% | | |------------------------------+----------------------------------| |more than 95% | | |------------------------------+----------------------------------| |more than 90% | | |------------------------------+----------------------------------| |more than 60% | | |------------------------------+----------------------------------| |more than 50% | | |------------------------------+----------------------------------| |less than 33% | | |------------------------------+----------------------------------| |less than 10% | | |------------------------------+----------------------------------| |less than 5% | | +-----------------------------------------------------------------+ very unlikely extremely likely more likely than not very likely likely unlikely virtually certain extremely unlikely Now complete the statements from the IPCC Report with the expressions from the table above. o It is ............................ that human activities are causing global warming o ............................ temperature rise by the end of the century will be between 1.8C and 4C (3.2-7.2F) o ............................ temperature rise by the end of the century ranges between 1.1C and 6.4C (2-11.5F) o Sea levels are ............................ to rise by 28-43cm o Arctic summer sea ice is ............................ to disappear in second half of century o It is ............................that parts of the world will see an increase in the number of heatwaves o Climate change is ............................ to lead to increased intensity of tropical storms 5. Risks Give examples of the following hazards. What are the risks associated with them. natural hazards, e.g. chemical hazards, e.g. biological hazards, e.g. social hazards, e.g. personal hazards, e.g. +--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+ |fires |tornadoes |viruses |earthquakes|volcanic eruptions| |-------------------+----------+------------------------------+-----------+------------------| |pollen |parasites |pollutants in air, water, soil|smoking |drinking | | | |and food | | | |-------------------+----------+------------------------------+-----------+------------------| |occupational safety|hurricanes|dieting |floods |transportation | |-------------------+----------+------------------------------+-----------+------------------| |bacteria | | | | | +--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+ 6. Environmental responsibilities Define the environmental responsibilities and conflicting values of citizens who come from different countries and cultures. Here are some thought-starters for discussion. (GHG=greenhouse gas) • In many countries people rely on wood for their cooking needs as well as for warmth. This consumes valuable timber and produces harmful GHG emissions. This is bad, but uncooked food can lead to disease, and people die when there’s not enough heat. Which is worse? What is the answer? (GHG=greenhouse gas) • Is there a difference between the environmental damages from GHG emissions in a developed country versus the GHG damages in undeveloped countries? Explain the difference. • Which is more excusable: deforestation for agricultural/forestry production in a developed country or deforestation for/by farmers in a developing country that uses the land and trees for survival? • Are businesses from less developed countries that cut down forests for export or businesses from developed countries that demand the timber more environmentally responsible? What about governments that engage in this sort of exchange? • As developing countries continue to progress, vehicles, residences, and industries that rely on fossil fuels for heat and power contribute more and more GHGs. Should they slow down their rate of progress? Should they be asked to reduce emissions of GHGs? • Several industrialized countries have instituted a carbon tax. Some people have suggested that these countries should institute carbon credits. What are carbon taxes and carbon credits? Do you think they should be employed by developed countries? • There are healthcare, medical well-being, and social costs associated with burning fossil fuels. Some would argue that these are external costs and that the industrialized world, particularly the United States, does not pay for them. What are external costs and who pays for them? • Several models of fuel-efficient automobiles are available to the average consumer in the developed world. Why are there so few on the road? • What is permafrost? What effect can the melting of the permafrost have on your country? • What impact would rising sea levels have on your country? What about shoreline housing? • What are coral reefs? How and why are they changing? What will it do to sea creatures? • What is the Larsen-B ice shelf? Is this question relevant to your country? • How do the rates of destruction of forests and the rates of drought compare with previous history?