UNITED NATIONS A General Assembly Distr. GENERAL A/4.V427 4 Ai'qust ENGLISH ORIGINAL; 1987 ARABIC/CHINESE/ENGLISH/ FRENCH/RUSSIAN/SPANISH Forty-second session Item 83 Governing Council, the proposed draft resolution and the comments ot the Governing Council on the report of the Commission can be found in the report ot the Governinq Council on the work of its fourteenth session. 1/ * A/42/1S0. H7-18467 2999h (E) A/42/427 Enqllsh Paqe 2 Notes 1/ Official Records of the General Assemblv. Fortv-second Session, Supplement No. 25 (A/42/2M . /. A/42/427 Enqlish Paae 3 ANNEX Report of the World Commission on Environment and Development "Our Common Future" A/4ľ/4. '7 KlKjl t.'irl ľ,ľ).- 4 Members of tha Commission Chairman: Cro Harlam drundtlend (Norway) Uice Chairman: Mansour Khalid (Sudan) Susanna Agnelli (Italy) Saleh A Al-Athel (Saudi Arabia) Barnard Chldzaro (Zimbabwe) Lamina Mohammad Fadika (Côte d'lvoire) Volker Hauff (Federal Republic of Germany) Ittwan Lang (Hungary) Ma Shijun (People's Republic of China) Margarita Marino de 6otero (Colombia) Nagendra Singh (India) Paulo Noguelra-Neto (Brazil) Saburo Okit« (Japan) Shrldath S. Ramphal (Guyana) William 0. Ruckelshaus (USA) Mohamed Sahnoun (Algeria) Emil Sallm (Indonesia) Bukar Shalb (Nigeria) Uladimir Sokolou (USSk) Janez Stanounik (Yugoslavia) Maurice Strong (Canada) Jim MacNelll (Canada) CONTENTS Acronym List and Note on Terminology Proa One Earth to One World: An Overview by the World Commission on Environment and Development Part I: Common Concerns 1 A Threatened Puture Symptoms and Causes New Approaches to Environment and Development 2 Towards Sustainable Devolopment The Concept of Sustainable Development Equity and the Common Interest Strategic Imperatives Conclusion 3 The Role of th*» International Economy The International Economy, the Environment and Development Decline in the 1980s Enabling. Sustainable Development A Sustainable World Economy Part II: Common Challenges 4 Population and Human Resources The Links with Environment and Development The Population Perspective A Policy Pramework 5 Pood Security: Sustaining the Potential Achievements Signs of Crisis The Challenge Strategies for Sustainable Pood Security Pood for the Puture A/4 J/4 2 7 Knql :.-,() l'H.je 6 6 Species and Ecosystems: Resources for Development The Probit» Character and Extent Extinction Patterns and Trends Soae Causes of Extinction Economic Values at Stake New Approach: Anticipate and Prevent International Action for National Species Scope for National Action The Need for Action 7 Energy: Choices for Environment and Development Energy. Economy and Environment Fossil Fuels: The Continuing Dilemma Nuclear Energy: Unsolved Problems Wood Fuels: The Vanishing Resource Renewable Energy: The Untapped Potential Energy Efficiency: Maintaining the Momentum Energy Conservation Measures Conclusion 8 Industry: Producing More with Less Industrial Growth and its Impact Sustainable Industrial Development In a Context Strategies for Sustainable Industrial Development 9 The Uroan Challenge The Growth of Cities The Urban Challenge in Developing Countries International Cooperation Part III: Common Endeavours 10 Managing the Commons Oceans: The Balance of Life Space: A Key to Sustainable Development Antarctica: Towarde Global Cooperation 11 Peace. Security. Development, and the Environment Environmental Stress as a Source of Conflict Conflict as a Cause of Unsustainable Development Towards Security and sustainable Development A/42/427 English Page 7 12 Towards Cosuson Action: Proposals for Institutional and Legal Change The Challenge for Institutional and Legal Change Proposals for Institutional and Legal Change A Call for Action Annexe 1 Summary of Proposed Legal Principles for Environmental Protection and Sustainable Development Annexe 2 The Commission and Its Work Throughout this report, quotes from some of the many people who spake at WCED public hearings appear in boxes to illustrate the range of opinions the Commission was exposed to during its three years of work. They do not necessarily reflect the views of the Commission. A/ 4 ľ/4.1/ Knq] i;;h ľ.KM- H ACRONYM LIST AND NOTE ON TERMINOLOGY ATS Antarc* ic Treaty System CCAMLR Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources CIDIE Committee of International Development Institutions on the Environment CMEA Council for Mutual Economic Assistance DIESA United Nations Department for International Economic and Social Affairs ECB United Nations Environment Coordination Board ECE Economic Commission for Europe EEC European Economic Community EEZ Exclusive Economic Zones ELC Environment Liaison C itre FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations GATT General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade GDP gross domestic p oduct GEMS Global Environment Monitoring System GESAMP Group of Experts on Scientific Aspect of Marine Pol lut ion GNP gross national product GRID Global Resource Information Database IAEA International Atonic Energy Agency ICRP International Commission on Radiological Protection ICSU International Council of Scientific Unions [DA International Development Association IGBP International Geosphere Biosphere Project (of ICSU) IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis A/42/427 Knqlish Paqc 9 HED International Institute for Environment and Development ILO International Labour Organization IMF International Monetary Fund IOC Intergovernmental Oceanogrí.phic Commission ITU International Telecommunications Union IUCN International Union for the Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources IWC International Whaling Commission LDC London Dumping Convention MVA manufacturing value added NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration NCS National Conservation Strategies NGO non-governmental organizations NICs newly industrialized countries NUSS Nuclear Safety Standards OECD Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development ODA Official Development Assistance PPP Polluter Pays Principle TNCs transnational corporations UNCHS United Nations Centre for Human Settlements (HABITAT) UNCTAD United Nations Conference oa Trade and Development UNDA United Nations Disarmament Association UNDRO Office of the United Nations Disaster Relief Co-ordinator UNEP United Nations Environment Programme UNESCO United Nations Educational. Scientific, and Cultural Organizat ion UNIDO United Nations Industrial Development Organization A,'4 J 4.'/ Klu, 1 ísh ľ.iqr 10 WHO World Health organization WHO World Meteorological Organization WHI World Resources Institute WWF World Wildlife Fund The grouping of countries in the presentatioa of data is indicated in the appropriate places. Tne ter> 'industrial countries' generally encompasses the UN cat&gories of developed market economies and the socialist countries of Eastern Europe and the USSR. Unless otherwise indicated, the term 'developing country' refer? to the UN grouping of developing-country market economies and the socialist countries of Asia. The tarm 'Third World', unless the context implies otherwise, generally refers to thö deve loping-country marke^ economies as defined by the UN Unless indicated otherwise, tons are metric ( l,000 kilogrammes, or 2.204.6 pounds). Dollars are current U.S. dollars or U.S. dollars for tha year specified. A/42/427 English Page 1] CHAIRMAN'S FOREWORD "A global agenda for change" - this was what, the World Commission on Environment and Development was asked to formulate. It was an urgent call by the General Asaerably of the United Nations: to propose long-term environmental strategies for achieving sustainable development by the year 2000 and beyond; to recommend ways concern for the environment may be translated into greater co-operation among developing countries and between coun ries at different stages of economical and social development and lead to the achievement of common and mutually supportive objectives that take account of the interrelationships between people, resources, environment, and development; to consider ways and means by which the international community can deal more eff „tively with environment concerns; and to help define shared perceptions of long-term environmental issues and the appropriate efforts needed to deal successfully with the problems of protecting and enhancing the environment, a long term agenda for action during the coming decades, and aspirational goals for the world communi ty. When I was called upon by the Secretary-General of the Jnited Nations in December 1983 to establish and chair a special, independent commission to address this major challenge to the worlu community, I was acutely aware that this was no small task and obligation, nd that ray day-to day responsi bi)i t i es as Party leader made it seem plainly prohibitive. What the General Assembly asked for also seemed to be unrealistic and much too ambitious. At the same time, it was a clear demonstration of the widespread feeling of frustration and inadequacy in the intern™:*' da 1 comm'tnity about our own ability to address the vit.j ''obdl issues and deal effectively with them. Thdt tact is a compelling reality, and should not easily be dismissed. Since the answers to fundamental and serious concerns are not at hand, there is no alternative but to keep on trying to find them. A/42/427 Kryj li «h Paije 12 All this was on my mind when the Secretary General presented me with an argument to which there was no convincing rebuttal: No other political leader had become Prime Minister with a background of several years of political struggle, nationally and internationally, as an environment minister. This gave some hope that the environment was not destined to remain a side issue in central, political decision making. In the final analysis, I decided to accept the challenge. The challenge of facing the future, and of safeguarding the interests of coming generations. For it was abundantly clear: We needed a mandate for change. K * * * * We live in an era in the history of nations when there is greater need than ever for co-ordinated political action and responsibility. The United Nations and its Secretary-General are faced with an enormous task and burden. R°8ponsibly meeting humanity's goals and aspirations will require the active support of us all. My reflections and perspective were also based on other important parts of ray own political experience: the preceding work of the Brandt Commission on North South issues, and the Palme Commission on security and disarmament issues, on which I served. I was being asked to help formulate a third and compelling call for political action: After Brandt's Programme for Survival and Common Crisis, and after Palme's Common Security, would come Common Future. This was my message when Vice Chairman Mansour Khaiid and I started work on the ambitious task set up by the United Nations. This report, as presented to the UN General Assembly in 1987, is the result of that process. * » * * * Perhaps our most urgent task today is to persuade nations of the need to return to multilateralism. The challenge of reconstruction after the Second World War was the real motivating power behind the establishment of our post-war international econo.nic system. The challenge of finding sustainable development paths ought to provide the impetus - indeed the imperative - for a renewed search for multilateral solutions and a restructured international economic system of co-operation. These challengee cut across the divides of national sovereignty, of United strategies for economic gain, and of separated disciplines of science. A/4 2/427 '•'fi)e 2 0 perspective that encompasses the factorß underlying world poverty and international inequality. 9. These concerns were behind the establishment in 1983 of the World Commission on Environment and Development by the UN General Assembly. The Commission Í6 an independent body, linked to but outside the control of governments and the UN syßtem. The Commission's mandate gave it three objectives: to re-examine the critical environment and development issues and to formulate realistic proposals for dealing with them; to propose new form6 of international cooperation on these issues that will influence policies and events in the direction of needed changes; and to raise the levels of understanding and commitment to action of individuals, voluntary organizations, businesses, institutes, and governments. 10. Through our deliberations and the testimony of people at the public hearings we held on five continents, all the commissioners came to focuc on one central theme: many present development trends leave increasing numbers of people poor and vulnerable, while at the same time degrading the environment. How can such development serve next century's world of twice as many people relying on the same environment? This realization broadened our view of development. We came to see it not in its restricted context of economic growth in developing countries. We came to see that a new development path was required, one that sustained human progress not just in a few places for a few years, but for ths entire planet into the distant future. Thus 'sustainable development' becomes a goal not just for the 'developing' nations, but for industrial ones as well. 2. The Interlocking Crises 11. Until recently, the planet was a large world in which human activities and their effects were neatly compartmentalized within nations, within sectors (energy, agriculture, trade), and within broad areas of concern (environment, economics, social). These compartments have begun to dissolve. This applies in particular to the various global 'crises' that have «eized public concern, particularly over the past decode. These are not p^parate crises: an environmental crisis, a development crisis, an energy crisis. They are all one. 12. The planet is passing through a period of dramatic growth and fundamental change. our human world of b billion must make room in a finite environment for another human world. The population could stabilize at between 8 and 14 billion sometime next century, according to UN projections. More than 90 per cent of the increase will occur in the poorest countries, and 90 per cent of thot growth in already bursting cities. 13. Economic activity has multiplied to create a $13 trillion world economy, and this could grow five o tenfold in the coming halt century. Industrial production has grown more than fiftyfold over the past century, four fifths of this growth since 19S0. Such figures reflect and preßage profound impacts upon the A/4 2/4 .'7 l',i<|f' -'I The World Commission on Environment and Development first met in October 1964. and published its Report 900 days later, in April 1987. Over those few days: * The drought-triggered, environment-development crisis in Africa peaked, putting 35 million people at risk, killing perhaps a mi 11 ion. * A leak from a pesticides factory in Bhopal. India, killed more than 2.000 people and blinded and injured over 200.000 more. * Liquid gas tank6 « xploded in Mexico City, killing 1.000 and leaving thousands more homeless. * The Chernobyl nuclear reactor explosion sent nuclear fallout across Europe, increasing the risks of future human cancers. " Agricultural chemicals, solvents, and mercury flowed into the Rhine River during a warehouse fire in Switzerland, killing millions of fish a i threatening drinking water in the Federal Republic of Germany and the Netherlands. * An estimated 60 million people died of diarrhoeal diseases related to unsafe drinking water and malnutrition; most ot the victims were children. biosphere, as the world invests in houses, transport, farms, and industries. Much of the economic growth pulls raw material from foreevB, soils, seas, and waterways. 14. A uainspring of economic growth is new technology, and while this technology offers the potential for slowing the dangerously rapid consumption of finite resources, it also entails high risks, including new forms of pollution and the introduction to the planet of new variations of life formt? that could change evolutionary pathways. Meanwhile, the industries most heavily reliant on environmental resources and most heavily polluting are growing most rapidly in the developing world, where there is both more urgency for growth and less capacity to minimize damaging side effects. ?p« ever more interwoven globally into a seamlesG net of causes and effects. ft 4 2/42 7 llriijl luh !\iq<> 22 16. Impoverishing the local resource bast» c/ impoverish wider areas: deforestation by highland farmers causes flooding on lowland farms; factory pollution robs local fishermen of their catch. Such grim local cycles now operate nationally and regionally. Dryland degradation sends environmental refugees in their millions across national borders. Deforestation in Latin America and Asia is causing more floods, and more destructive floods, in downhill, downstream nations. Acid precipitation and nuclear fallout have spread across the borders of Europe. Similar phenomena are emerging on a global scale, such as global warming and loss of ozone. Internationally traded hazardoi"? chemicals entering foods are themselves internationally traded. In the next century, the environmental preseure causing population movements may be increase sharply, while barriers to that movement may be even firmer than they are now. 17. Over the past few v'ecades, 1 if e- threatening environmental concerns have surfaced in the developing world. Countrysides are coming under pressure from increasing numbers of farmers and the landless. Cities are filling with people, cai , and factories. Yet at the same time these developing countries must operate in a world in which the resources gap between most developing and industrial nations is widening, in which the industrial world dominates in the rule-making of some Key international bodies and in which the industrial world has already used much of the planet's ecological capital. This inequality is the planet's main 'environmental' problem; it is also its main 'development' problem 18. International economic relationships pose a particular problem for environmental management in »any developing countries. Agriculture, forestry, rner.y oroduction, and mining generate at least half the gross national product of many developing countries and account for even larger shares of livelihoods and employment. Exports of natural resources remain a large factor in their economies, especially for the least developed. Most of these countries face enormou« economic pressureo, both internát ioiial and domestic, to overexploit their environmental resource base. 19. The recent crisis in Africa best and most tragically illustrates the ways in which economice and ecology can interact destructively and trip into disaster. Triggered by drought, itB cecl causes lie deeper. They are to be found in part in national policies that gave too little attention, too late, to the needs of smallholder agriculture and to the threats poeed by rapidly rising populations. Their roots extend also to a global economic system that takes »ore out of a poor continent than it puts in. Debts that they cannot pay force African nations relying on commodity sales to overuse their fragile soils, thus turning good land to -*»sert. Trade barriers in the weilthy nations - and in many dev loping nations - make it hard for African nations to sell their goods for reasonable returns, putting yet more pressure on ecological Systems. Aid from donor nations har not only been inadequate in seal but too often has reflected the priorities of the nations giving the aid, rather than the netds '- the recipients. A/4Ü/427 Enqlish Paqe 2 3 The Commission has sought way6 in which global development can be put on a sustainable path into the 21st Century. Some 5.000 dav6 will elapse between the publication of our report and the first day of the 2xst Century. What environmental crise» lie in store over thosi. S. 000 days? During the 1970e,. twice as many people suffored each year from 'natural' disasters as during the 1960b. The disasters mo«t directly associated with environment/development mismanagement - droughts and floods - affected the »opt people and increased most sharply in tetruß of numbers affected. Some 18. 5 million people were affected by drought annually in the 1960s, 24.4 million in the 1970k. There were 5.2 million flood victims yearly in the 1960c, 15.4 million in the 1970s. Numbers of victims of cyclones and earthquakes also shot up as growing numbers of poor people built unsafe houses on dangerous ground. The results are not in for the 1980s But we have seen 35 Billion afflicted by drought in Africa alone and tens of millions affected by the better managed and thus less-publicized Indian drought. Floods have poured off the deforested Andes and Himalayas with increasing force. The 1980s seem destined to sweep this dire trend on into a crisis-filled 1990s. 20. The production base of other developing world areas suffers similarly from both local failures and from the workings of international economic systems. As a consequence of the 'debt crisis' of Latin America, that continent's natural resources are now being used not for development but to meet iir.»ncial obligations to creditois abroad. This approach to t.^e debt problem is short sighted from several standpoints: economic, political, and environmental. It requires relatively poor countries simultaneously to accept growing poverty while exporting growing «mounts of pcarce resources. 21. A majority of developing countries now have love per capita incomes than when the decade began. Rising poverty and unemployment have increased pressure on environmental resources as more people have been forced to rely more directly upon them. Man/ governments have cut back efforts to protect the environment and to bring ecological considerations into development planning. 22. The deepening and widening environmental crisis presents a threat to national security - and even survival - that nay be greater than well-armed, ill-disposed neighbours and unfriendly alliances. Already in parts of Latin America. Asia, the Middle East, and Africa, environmental decline is becoming a source of political unrest and international tension. The recent destruction of much of Africa's dryland agricultural production was more severe than if an invading army had pursued a scorched-earth policy. Yet most of the affected governments still spend far more to protect tiieir people Crom invading armies than from the invading desert. A/4J/4«?7 K mil i r, h Paij«» J 4 23. Globally, military expenditures total about $1 trillion a year and continue to grow. In many countries, military Bpending consumes such a high proportion of GNP that it itself does great damage to these societies' development efforts. Governments tend to base their approaches to 'security on traditional definitions. This is most obvious in the attempts to achieve security through the development of potentially planet-destroying nuclear weapons systems. Studies suggest that the cold ind dark nuclear winter following even a limited nuclear war could destroy plant and animal ecosystems and leave any human survivors occupying a devastated planet very different from the one they inherited. 24. The arms race - in all parte of the world - pre-empts resources that might be used more productively to diminish fie security threats created by environmental conflict and the resentments that are fuelled by widespread poverty. 25. Many present efforts to guard and maintain human progress, to meet human needs, and to rsalize human ambitions are simply unsustainable - in both the rich and poor nations. Thoy draw too heavily, too quickly, on already overdrawn environmental resource accounts to be affordable far into the future without bankrupting those accounts. They may show profiti on the balance sheets of our generation, but our children will inherit the losses. We borrow environmental capital from future generations with no intention or prospect of repaying. They may damn us for our spendthrift ways, but they can never collect on our debt to them. We act as we do because we can gat away with it: future generations do not vote; they have no political or financial power; they cannot challenge our decisions. 26. But the results of the present profligacy are rapidly closing the options for future generations. Most of today's decision makers will be dead before tie planet reels the heavier effects of acid precipitation, global warming, ozone depletion, or widespread desertification and sp»cies loss. Most of the young voters of today will still be alive. In the Commission's hearings it wa6 the young, those who have the most to lose, who were the harshest critics of the planet's present management. 3. Sustainable Development 27. Humanity has the ability to ra.ike development sustainable to ensure that it meets the need6 of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. The concept of sustainable development does imply limits not absolute limits but limitations imposed by the present state of techno!ogy and social organization on environmental resources and by the ability of the biosphere to absorb the effects of human activities. But technology and social organization can be both managed and improved lo make way tor a new era of economic growth. The Commission believes that widespread poverty Í6 no longer inevitable. Poverty is not only an evil in itself, but sustainable development requires metting the basic needs of all and extending to all the opportunity to Kn«! 1 i fih fulfil their ispirarions for a better life. A world in which poverty is endemic will always be prone to ecological and other catastrophes. 28. Meeting eesential needs requires not only a new era of economic growth for nations in which the majority are poor, but an assurance that those poor get their fair share of the resources required to sustain that growth. Such equity would be aided by political systems that secure effective citizen participation in decision making and by greater democracy in international decision making. 21. Sustainable global development requires that those who are more affluent adopt life-styles within the planet's ecological means - in their use of energy, for example. Further, rapidly growing populations can increase the pressure on resources and slow any rise in living standards; thus sustainable development can only be pursued if population size and growth are in harmony with the changing productive potential of the ecosystem. 30. Yet in the end. sustainable development is not a fixed state of harmony, but rather a process of change in which the exploitation of resources, the direction of investments, the orientation of technological development, and institutional change are made consistent with future as well as present needs. We do not pretend that the process is ea6y or straightforward. Painful choices have to be made. Thus, in the final analysis, sustainable development must rest on political will. 4. The Institutional Gapr 31. The objective of sustainable development and the integrated nature of the global environment/development challenges pose problems tor institutions, national and international, that were established on the basis of narrow preoccupations and compartmentalized concerns. Governments' general response to the speed and scale of global changes has been a reluctance to recognize sufficiently the need tc change themselves. The challenges are both interdependent and integrated, requiring cornerehensi ve approaches and popular participation. 32. Yet most of the institutions facing those challenges tend to be independent, fragmented, working to relatively narrow mandates with closed decision processes. Those responsible for managing natural resources and protecting the environment are institutionally 6epar.ited from those responsible for managing the economy. The real world of interlocked economi" and ecological systems will not change; the policies an.-i institut ions concerned must . 33. There is a growing need for effective international cooperation to manage ecological and economic interdependence. Yet at the same time, confidence in international organizations is diminishing and support for them dwindling. A/42/427 KlH) 1 luh l'.1í)f 2h 34. The other great institutional flaw in coping with environment/development challenges is governments' failure to make the bodies whose policy actions degrade the environment responsible for ensuring that their policies irevcnt that degradation. Environmental concern arose from damage caused by the rapid economic growth following the Second World War. Governments, prescured by their citizens, saw a need to clean up the mess, and they established environmental ministries and agencies to do this. Many had great success within the limits of their mandates - in improving air and water quality and enhancing other resources. But much of their work ha6 of necessity been after-the-fact repair of damage: reforestation, reclaiming desert lands, rebuilding urban environments, restoring natural habitats, and rehabilitating wild lands. 3«>. The existence of such agencies gave many governments and their citizens the false impression that these bodies were by themselves able to protect and enhance the environmental resource base. Yet many industrialized and most developing countries carry huge economic burdens from inherited problems such an air and water pollution, depletion of groundwater, and the proliferation of toxic chemicals and hazardous wastes. These have been joined by more recent problems - erosion, desertification, acidification, new chemicals, and new forms of waste - that are directly related to agricultural, industrial. energy, forestry, and transportation policies and practices. 36. The mandates of the central economic and sectoral ministries are also often coo narrow, too concerned with quantities of production or growth. The mandates of ministries of industry i íclude production targets, while the accompanying pollution is left to ministries of environment. Electricity boards produce power, while the acid pollution they also produce is left to other bodies to clean up. The present challenge is to give the central economic and sectoral ministries the responsibility for the quality of those parts of the human environment affected by their decisions, and to give the environmental agencies more power to cope with the effects of unsustainable development. 37. The same need for change holds for international agencies concerned with development lending, trade regulation, agricultural development, and so on. These have been slow to take the environmental effects of their work into account, although some are trying to do so. 36. The ability to anticipate and prevent environmental damage requires that the ecological dimensions of policy be considered at the same time as the economic, trade, energy, agricultural, and other dimensions. They should be considered on the same agendas and in the same national and international institutions. 39. This reorientation is one of the chief institutional challenges of the 1990s and beyond. Meeting it will require major institutional development and reform. Many countries that e 61 r engtt.ened so they can secure terme which respect their environmental concerns. 81. However, these specific measures must be located in a wider context of effective cooperation to produce an international economic system geared to growth and the elimination of world poverty. (See Chapter 3 for a more detailed discussion of isBues and recommendations on the international economy.) 2^ Managinq the CommonP 82. Traditional forms of national sover>ignty raise particular problems in managing the global commons' and their shared ecosystems - the oceans, outer space, and Antarctica. Some progress has been made in all three areas; much remairu; to be done . A (4 83. The IJN Conference on the Law of th»' Sea was the must ambitious attempt ever to provide an internationally agreed regime for the management of the oceans. All nations should ratify the Law of the S« a Treaty a6 soon at possible. Fisheries agreements ohould be strengthened to prevent current overexploitation. as should conventions to control and regulate the dumping of hazardous wastes at sei. 84. There are growing concerns about the management of orbital space, centering or using satellite technology for monitoring planetary systems; on making the most effective use of the limited capacities of georynchronous orbit fot communications satellites; and on limiting space debris. The orbiting and testing of weapon» in space would greatly increase this der-t.s. The international community should seek to design and implement a space regime to ensure that space remains a peaceful environment for the benefit of all. 85. Antarctica is managed under the l*S9 Antarctica Treaty. However, many nations outside of that pact view the Treaty System as too limited«, both in participation and in the scope of its conservation measures. The Commission's recommendations deal with the safeguarding of present achievements; the incorporation of any minerále development into a management regime; and various options tor the future. (See Chapter 10 for more discussion :>n issues and recommendations on tht* management of the commons.) 3. Peace. Security. Developmen{_,__and the Environment 8b. Among the dangers facing t h«j environment, the possibility of nucleur wir is undoubtedly the gravest. Certain aspectB of the issues of peace and security bear directly upon the concept of sustainable development. The whole notion of security as traditionally understood in terms of political and military threats to national sovereignty - must be expanded to include the gruwiug impacts of environmental stress - locally, nationally, regionally, and globally. There are no military slutions to 'environmental insecurity'. 87. Governments and international agencies should assess the cost effectiveness, in terms of achieving security, of money spent on armaments compared with money bpent on reducing poverty or restoring a ravaged environment. 88. But the greatest need is to achieve improved relations among those major powers capable of deploying weapons of «tubs destruction. Thic is needed to achieve agreement on tighter control over the proliferation and testing of various types of weapons of mass destruction nuclear and non nuclear including those tLat have environmental implications. (See Chapter 1'. for more discussion of issues and recommendations on the links between peace, cecurity, development, and the environment.) 4. Institutional and Legal Change 89. The Report that follows contains throughout (and especially in Chapter 12), many specific recommendations for institutional A/42/427 Knqlish Parjp 3 S and legal change. These cannot be adequately summarized here. However, the Commission'é main proposals are embodied in 6ix priority areas. 4.1 Getting at the Sources 90. Governments must begin now to make the key national, economic, and sectoral agencies directly responsible and accountable for ensuring that their policies, programmes, and budgets support development that i6 economically and ecologically sustainable. 91. By the sane token, the various regional organizations need to do more to integrate environment fully in tneir goals and activities. New regional arrangements will especially be needed among developing countries to deal with transboundary environmental issues. 92. All major intetnational bodies and dgenrir should ensure that their programmes encourage and support t ust nable development, and they should greatly improve thei coordination and cooperation. The Secretary-General of the United Nations Organization should provide a high level centre f leadership for the UN system to assess, advise, assist, and r*> r on progre66 made towards this goal. 4.2 pealing wita the effects 93. Government, should also reinforce the roles and capacities of environmental protection an» resource management agencies. This is needed in «any industrialized countries, but most urgently in developing countries, which will need assistance in strengthening their institutions. The UN Environment Programme (UNEP) should be strengthened as the principal source on environmental data, assessment, and reporting and as the principal advocate and agent for change and international cooperation on critical e.vironment and natural resource protection issues. 4. 3 Assess inq G]obal Rieka 94. The capacity to identify, assess, and report on riskp oí irreversible damage to natural systems and threats to the survival, security, and well being of the wo.'ld community must be rapidly reinforced and e/tendeci. Governments, individually and collectively, have the piincipal responsibility to do this. UNEP's Ear thwatch programme BhouM be the centre of i»-;»derBhip in che UN systém on risk assessment 95. However, given the politically sensitive nature of many of the most critical risks, there is also a need for an independent but complepfenlary capacity to assess and report on critical global risks. * new international programme fot cooperation among largely non-goveramenta 1 organizations, scientific bodies, and industry group« should therefore be established for this purpose. A/4.!/4.! / 1'. mil t Kh 41 Ma K i r. q Informed Choices 96. Making the difficult choices involved in achieving sustainable development will depend on the widespread support and involvement of an informed public and of NGOs, the scientific community, and industry. Their rights, roles and participation in development planning, decision-making, and project implementation should be expanded. 4.5 Providing the Legel Means 97. National and international law iß being rapidly outdistanced by the accelerating pace and expanding scale of impacts on the ecological basis of development. Governments now need to fill major gaps in existing national and international law related to the environment, to find ways to recoonize and protect the riqhts of present and future generations to an environment adequate for their hetith and well-being, to prepare under UN auspices a universal Declaration on environmental protection and sustainable development and a subsequent Convention, and to strengthen procedures for avoiding or resolving dispute« on environment and resource management issues. 4.6 Investing in Qur Future 98. Over the past decade, the overall cost-effectiveness of investments in halting pollution has been demonstrated. The escalating economic and ecological damage costs of not investing in environmental protection and improvement have also been repeatedly demonstrated - often in grim tolls of flood and (amine. But there are large financial implications: for renewable energy development, pollut'on control, and achieving less reoource-intensive forms of agriculture. 99. Multilateral financial institutions have a crucial role to play. The World Bank is presently reorienting its programmes towards greater environmental concerns. This should be accompanied by a fundamental commitment to sustainable development by the Bank. It is also essential that tfu> Regional Developnent Banks and the International Monetary Fund incorporate similar objectives in their policies and programmes. A new priority and focus is also needed in bilateral did agenciee. 100. Given the limitations on increasing present fIowg of international aid, proposals for securing additional revenue from the use of international commons and natural resources should now be seriously considered by governments. IV. A CALL FOR ACTION 101. Over the course of this century, the relationship between the human world and the planet that sustains it has undergone a profound change. A/4Ü/4 2 7 i:rn| 1 ÍKh 102. When the cenť ry began, neither human numbers nur technology had the powei radicaljy to alter planetary aysteas. As the century closes, not only do vastly increased human numbers and their activities have that power, but *.a)or. unintended changes are occurring in the atmosphere, in soils, in waters, among plants e nil animals, and in the Lelationships among all of these. The rate of change is outstripping th»° ability of scientific disciplines and our current capabilities to assess and advise. It is frustrating the attempts of political and economic insti* -ktions. which evolved in a different, more fragmented wot Id. to adapt and cope. It deeply worries many people who are seeking ways to place those concerns on the political agendas. 103. The onus lies with no one group of nations. Developing countries face the obvious life-threatening challenges of denertificaticn. deforestation, and pollution, and endure most of the poverty associated with environmental degradation. The entire human family of nations would suffer from the disappearance of rain forests in the tropics, the loss of plant and animal species, and changes in rainfall patterns. Industrial nations face the 1 ife-threatening challenges of toxic chemicals, toxic wastes, and acidification. All nations may suffer f a the releases by industrialized countries of carbon dioxide and of gases that react with tha ozone layer, and from any future war fought with the nuclear arsenals controlled by those nations. All nations will have a role to play in changing trends, and in righting an international economic system that increases rather than decreases inequality, that increases rather than decreases numbers of poor and hungry. 104. The ne> few decades are crucial. The time has come to break out of past patterns. Attempts to maintain social and ecological stability through old approaches to development and environmental protection will increase instability. Security must be sought through change. The Commission has noted a number of actions that must be taken to reduce risks to survival and to put future development on paths that 7 Knijl j.'.h \\t>lť 40 shanty-town residents, young people, industrialists, and indigenous and tribal peoples. 6. We found everywhere deep public concern for the environment, concern that has led not just to protests but often to changed benaviour. The challenge is to ensure that these new values are more adequately reflected in the principles and operations of political and economic structures. 7. We also found grounds for hope: that people can cooperate to build a future that is more prosperous, more just, and more secure; that a new era of economic growth can be attained, one based on policies that sustain and expand the Earth's resource base; and that the progress that some have known over the last century can be experienced by all in the ye&rs ahead. But for this to happen, we must understand better the symptoms of stress that confront us, we must identify the causes, and we must design new approaches to managing environmental resources and to sustaining human development. SYMPTOMS AND CAUSES 8. Environmental stress has often been seen as the result of the growing demand on scarce resources and the pollution generated by the rising living standards of the relatively affluent. But poverty itself pollutes the environment, creating environmental 6tress in a different way. Those who are poor and hungry will often destroy their immediate environment in order to survive: They will cut down forests; their livestock will overgraze grasslands; they will overuse marginal land; and in growing numbers they will crowd into congested cities. The cumulative effect of these changes is so fat-reaching ae to make poverty itself a major global scourge. 9. On the other hand, where economic growth has led to improvements in living standards, it has sometimes been achieved in ways that are globally damaging in the longer term. Much of the improvement in the par>t has been based on the use of increasing amounts of raw materials, energy, chemicals, and synthetics and on the creation of pollution that is not adequately accounted for in figuring the costs of production processes. These trends have had unforeseen effects on the environment. Thus today's envi r onmentrt 1 challenges arise both from the lack of development and from the unintended consequences of some forms of economic growth. 1. Poverty 10. There are more hungry people in the world today than ever before in human history, and their numbers are growing. In 1980, there wore 340 million people in 8/ developing countries not getting enough calories to prevent stunted growth and serious health risks. Thi6 total was verv slightly below the figure for 1970 in terras of Ehare of the world population, but in terms of sheer numbers, it represented a 14 per cent increase. The World Bank predicts that fheee numbers dre likely to go on qi owing. ]|/ A/42/427 |> \nf 4; 1 think thi6 Commission should give attention on how to look into the question of more participation for those people who are the object of development. Their basic need6 include the right to preserve their cultural identity, and their right not to be alienated from their own society, and their own community. So the point I want to make is that we cannot discuss environment or development without discussing political development. And you cannot eradicate poverty, at least not only by redistributing wealth or income, but there must be more redistribution of power. Aristides Katoppo Publisher WCED Public Hearing Jakarta. 26 March 198S 11. The number of people living in slums and shanty towns Í6 rising, not falling. A growing number lack access to clean water and sanitation and hence are prey to the diseases that arise from this lack. There is some progress, impressive in places. But. on balance, poverty persists and its victims multiply. 12. The pressure oi" poverty has to be seen in a broader context. At the international level there are large differences in per capita income, which ranged in 1984 from $190 in low income countries (other than China and India) to $11,430 in the industrial market economies. (See Table 11.) 13. S\j h inequalities represent great differences not merely in the quality oi life today, but also in the capacity of societies to improve their quality of life in the future. Most of the world's poorest countries depend for increasing export earnings on tropical agricultural products that are vulnerable to fluctuating or declining termß of trade. Expansion can often only be achieved at the price of ecological stress. Yet diversification in ways that will alleviate both poverty and ecological stress is hampered by disadvantageous terms of teciinoloqy transfer, by protectionism, and by declining financial flows to those countries that mo6t need international finance.2/ 14. Within countries, poverty has been exacerbated by the unequal distribution of land and other assets. The rapid rise in population has compromised the ability to raise living standards. These factors, combined with growing demands fop the commercial use of good land, often to grow crops for export , have pushed many subsistence farmers onto poor land and robbed them of any hope of participating in their nations' economic lives. The same forces have meani that traditional shifting cultivators, who once cut forests, grew crops, and then gave the forest time to recover, now have neither land enough nor time to let forests re-establish. So forests are being destroyed, often only to create poor farmland that cannot support thore who till it. Extending cultivation onto steep slopes is increasing soil erosion in many hilly sections of both developing and developed A/4 2/4ü/ Kllijl i Mil l\iij(» 4.' tuu 1.1 raaalatlaa lín uri pat Caalt« »7 acaaaa • f Caaaul - c«—m— PaaaWtlaa *u aaflla ■«•■•ta taml lltvu fata •C »ac aaalt* 4a*. l!4t-«4 Iwl. aiw. lati«) Uta« «M lati« Lamí IU441a-t,m— 1.....Im ■•■•i Uaála-laaaaa Caaaaal«« ■iH laaa— 011 lir«ittii laaaaulal WiU( «a«a—1— " (alllleal • 11 1.T74 »ti 4*T 11 711 (11*4 «allai«) IM I»« T4É l.fla 11.1*0 11.41» (•at «aau o.t i.i 1.0 i.i i.i i.« Mf'Mi aaaa* aa aati la aa«W Oaira«il«r Na». l»M). (■aw Ta«ii ■Wfac« nations. In vany river valleys, floods are nov farmed. areas chronically liable to 15. These pressures are reflected in the rising incidence of disasters. During the 1970s, six times as many people died fron 'natural disasters' each year as in the 1960s, and twice as many suffered fro« such disasters. Droughts and floods, disasters among whose causes are widespread deforestation and overcultivation. increased Host in terns of numbers affected. There were 18.5 million people affected by droughts annually in the 1960s, but 24.4 million in the 1970s; 5.2 million people were victims of floods yearly in the 1960s, compared with 15.4 million in the 1970s.3'' The results are not in for the 1980s, but this disaster-prone decade see-as to be carrying forward the trend, with droughts in Africa, India, and Latin Anenca. and floods throughout Asia, parts of Africa, and the Andean region of Latin America. 16. Such disasters claim most of their victims among the impoverished in poor nations, where subsistence farmers must make their land more liable to dr 17. The links between environmental stress and developmental disaster are most evident in sub-Saharan Africa. Per capita food production, declining since the 1960b. plummeted during the drought of the 1980s, and at the height of the food emergency some 35 million people were exponed to risk. Human overuse of land and prolonged drouqht threaten to turn r he grasslands of Africa's Sahel region into desert.47 Nu orher region more tragically suffers the vicious cycle of poverty leading to A/42/427 Knqlish Paqo 4 i If people destroy vegetation in order to get land, food, fodder, fuel, or timber, the soil is no longer protected. Rain creates surface runoff, and the soil erodes. When the soil is gone, no water is retained and the land can no longer produce enough food, fodder, fuel, or timber, so people need to turn to nev land and start the process all over again. All major disaster problems in the Third World are essentially unsolved development problems. Disaster prevention is thus primarily an aspect of development, and this must be a development that takes place within the sustainable limits. Odd Gcann Secretary General. Norwegian Red Cross WCED Public Hearing Oslo. 24-25 June 1985 environmental degradation, which leads in turn to even greater poverty. 2. Growth 18. In sune parts of the world, particularly since the mid-1950s, growth and development have vastly improved living standards and the quality of life. Many of the products and technologies that have gone into this improvement are raw material- and energy-intensive and entail a substantial amount of pollution. The consequent impact on the environment is greater than ever beiore in human history. 19. Over the past century, the use of fossil fuele has grown nearly thirtyfold. and industrial production has increased move than tiftyfold. The bulk of this increase, about three-quarters in the case of fossil fuele and a little over four-fifths in the case of industrial production, has taken place since 1950. The annual increase in industrial production today is perhaps as large d6 the total production in Europe around the end of the 1930s.''^ Into every year we now squeeze the decades of industr al growth and environmental disruption that formed the basis of th« pre war European economy. 20. Environmental stresses also arise from more traditional forms of production. More land has been cleared for settled cultivation in the paßt 100 years than in all the previous centuries of human existence. Interventions in the water cycleß have increased greatly. Massive dam6, most of them built after 19S0, impound a large proportion of the river flow. In Europe and Asia, water use ha6 reached 10 per cent of the annual run off. a figure that is expected to rise to 20-2S per cent by the end of the century.6'' 21. The impact of growth and rising income levels can be seen in the distribution of world consumption oi a va iety of resource intensive produce. The more affluent industrialized countries use most of the woild'6 metale and foßsil fuele. Even Kni?l ish Page 44 Ti-ai» 1 • t »Ultlaatlaa ŕii—iinr Italu »t rai Capita Caaaaattlaa Davalapa4 Caaaulaa 'If Hi tfal ■' aa»">»tl«»l »a*alaat*a Cava litat JinliLlui rat Caali. ■kata la •ail* rat ■kara la «ad« Caaaaaatlaa, (■»'••■>> r*M Calatlaa rectal* r«t Kcal'aat fay »••/»•t Jay faa/aat **J 1« II • 1 1.1*1 ** 117 I.IM • • «0 raa«< kf/*at yaai ■ 1 III 11 • ■ taal kf/vat jraat Tl «1» tl «1 Otbai Hatali kf/aai »••• (t II 1« t CHHrilK ■a« f r ■ taa/aar fyai • 0 l.i 10 0.1 •aaiaa: WCO »atlsataa aaaa« aa Aaarlaaa Natal Jkaaaclatlaa. taaair|r-laval «ata Um r»o. im •tatlattcal Oftla« . OKCTAC. aaa in the case of food products a sharp difference exists, particularly in the products that are more resource-intensive. (See Table 1-2.) 22. In recent years, industrial countries have been able to achieve economic growth using less energy and raw materials per unit of output. Thi6. along with the efforts to reduce the emission of pollutants, will help to rontain the pressure on the biosphere. But with the increase in population and the rise in incomes, per capita consumption of energy and materials will go up in the developing countries, as it has to if essential needs are to be met. Greater attention to reaource efficiency can moderate the increase, but, on balance, environmental problems linked to resource use will intensify in global terms. 3. Survival 23. The scale and complexity of our requirements for natural resources have increased greatly with th< "" 24. The 'greenhouse effect', one such threa* to life-si'pport. sy6tem6. springs directly from increased resource use. The burning of fo66il fuels and the rutting and burning of foiestu release carbon dioxide (co^). The accumulation in the A/42/427 Kwjl i.-ih The remarkable achievements of the celebrated Industrial Revolution are now beginning seriously to be questioned principally because the environment wa6 not considered at the time. It was felt that the sKy was so vast and clear nothing could ever change its colour, our rivers so big and their water so plentiful that no amount of human activity could ever change their quality, and there were trees and natural foreetB bo plentiful that we wi.ll never finish them. After all, they grow l again. Today we should know better. The alarming rate at which the Earth's surface Í6 being denuded of its natural vegetative cover seems to indicate that the world may soon become devoid , of trees through clearing for human developments. i Hon. Victoria Chitepo Minister of Natural Resources and Tourism, Government of Zimbabwe WCED Oponing Ceiemony Harare. IB Sept 1986 atmosphere f C02 and certain other gase6 traps solar radiation near the Earth's surface, causing global warmin*,. This could cause sea level rises over the next 45 years large enough to inundate many low- lying coastal cities and river deltas. It could also drastically upset national and international agricultural production and trade systems.7/ 25. Another threat arises from the depletion of the atmospheric o7one layer by gases released during the production of foam and the use of refrigerants and aerosols. A substantial loss of such ozone could have catastrophic effects on human and livestock health and on some life forms at the base of the marine food chain. The 1986 discovery of a hole in the ozone layer above the Antarctic suggests the possibility of a more rapid depletion than previously suspected.8/ 26. A variety of air pollutants are killing trees and lakes and damaging buildings and cultural treasures, close to and sometimes thousands of miles from points of emisBion. The acidification ol the environment threatens large areas of Europe and North America. Central Europe is currently receiving more than one gramme of sulphur on every square metre of ground each year.9/ The loss of forests could bring in its wake disastrous erosion, eiltation, floods, and local climatic change. Air pollution damage is also becoming evident in some newly induct t i a 1 i zed countries. 27. In many cases the practices U6ed at present to dispose of toxic wastes, such as those from the chemical industries, involve unacceptable risks. Radioactive wastes from the nuclear industry remain hazardous for centuries. Many who bear these riBks do not benefit in any way from the activities that produce the wastes. A/42/427 English Page 46 28. Desertification - the process whereby productive arid and semi-arid land is rendered economically unproductive - and large-scale deforestation are other examples of major threats to the integrity of regional ecosystems. Desertification involves complex interactions between humans, land, and climate. The pressures of subsistence food production, commercial crops, and meat production in arid and semi-arid areas all contribute to this process. 29. Each year another 6 million hectares are degraded to desert-like conditions.1°/ Over three decades, this would amount to an area roughly as large as Saudi Arabia. More than 11 million hectares of tropical forests are destroyed per year and this, over 30 years, would amount to an area about the size of India.11/ Apart from the direct and often dramatic impacts within the immediate area, nearby regions are affected by the spreading of sands or by changes in water regimes and increased risks of soil erosion and siltation. 30. The loss of forests and other wild lands extinguishes species of plants and animals and drastically reduces the genetic diversity of the world's ecosystems. This process robs present and future generations of genetic material with which to improve crop varieties, to make them less vulnerable to weather stress, pest attacks, and disease. The loss of species and subspecies, many as yet unstudied by science, deprives us of important potential sources of medicines and industrial chemicals, it removes forever creatures of beauty and parts of our cultural heritage; it diminishes the biosphere. 31. Many of the risks stemming from our productive activity and the technologies we use cross national boundaries; many are global. Though the activities that give ris to these dangers tend to be concentrated in a few countries, the risks are shared by all, rich and poor, those who benefit from them and those who do not. Most who share in the risks have little influence on the decision processes that regulate these activities. 32. Little time is available for corrective action. In some cases we may already be close to transgressing critical thresholds. While scientists continue to research and debate causes and effects, in many cases we already know enough to warrant action. This is true locally and regionally in the cases o£ such threats as desertification, deforestation, toxic wastes, and acidification; it is true globally for such threats a6 climate change, ozone depletion, and species loss. The risks increase faster than do our abilities to manage them. 33. Perhaps the greatest threat to the Earth's environment, to sustainable human progress, and indeed to survival is the possibility of nuclear war, increased daily by the continuing arms race and its spread to outer space. The search for a more viable future can only be meaningful in the context of a more vigorous effort to renounce and eliminate the development of means of annihilation. /... A/42/427 Enf t he Committee en Developr Vt 'Planning (New YorK: UN. 19B6) I h/M/A21 Kiuil i.s h ľa.)r 4H 37. The heaviest burden in international economic adjustment hac been carried by the world's poorest people. The consequence has been a considerable increase in human distress >nd the overexploitat ion of land and natural resources to en.ure survival in the short term. j KüT.y international economic problems remain unresolved: Developing country indebtedness remains serious; commodity and enc-gy markets are highly unstable; financial flows to developiin countries are seriour.ly deficient; protectionism and trade wars are a serious threat. Yet at a time when multilateral institutions, and rules, are more than ever necessary, they have been devalued. And the notion of an international responoi bi 1 i ty for development has virtually disappeared. The trend is towards a decline in multilateralism and an assertion of national dominance. I I■ NEW APPROACHES TO ENVIRONMENT AND DEVELOP .ENT 39 Human progress has always depenled on our technical ingenuity and a capacity for cooperative action. These qualities have often b »en used constructively to achieve dfe-'elopraent and environmental progress: in air and water pollution control, for example, and in increasing the efficiency of material and energy use. Many countries have increased food production and reduced population growth rates. Some technological advances, particularly in medicine, have been widely shared. 40. But this is not enough. Failures to manage the environment and to Bustain development threaten to ov rwhelm all countries. Environment and development are not separate challenges; they are inexorably linked. Development cannot subsist upon a deteriorating environmental resource base; the environment cannot be protected when growth leaves out of account the costs of environmental destruction. These problems cannot be treated separately by fragmented institutions and policies. They are linked in a complex system of cause and effect. 41. First, environmental stresses are linked one to another. For example, deforestation, by increasing run off, accelerates soil eiosiori and siltation of rivers and lakes. Air pollution and acidification play their part in killing forests and lakes. Such links mean that several different problems mrst be tackled simultaneously And success in on? area, such as forest protection, can improve chances of success in a no t he' area, such as soil conservation. 4ľ. Second, environmental stresses and patterns of economic-development are linked one to another. Thus agricultural policies may lie at the root of land, w rer, and forest degradation. Energy policies are associated with the global greenhouse effect, with acidification, and with deforestation for fuelwood in many developing nations. These stresses all threaten economic development. Thus economics and ecology must be completely integrated in decision making and lawmaking processes A/4^/427 Eng U ah Page» 49 How long can we go on and safely pretend that the environment is not the economy, is not health. íb not the prerequisite to development, is not recreation? Is it realistic to see ourselves a6 managers of an entity out there called the environment, extraneous to ue. an alternative to the economy, ton expensive a value to protect in difficult economic times? When we organize ourselves starting from this premise, we do so with dangerous consequences to our economy, health, and industrial growth. We are now just beginning to realize that we must find an alternative to our ingrained behaviour of burdening future generations resulting from our misplaced belief that there is a choice between economy and the environment. That choice, in the long term, turns out to be an illusion with awesome consequences for humanity. Charles Caccia Member of Parliament, HouBe of Commons. WCED Public Hearii promotion of valr s that encourage consumption standards that are within the buunds of the ecological possible and to which all can reasonably aspire. 6. Meeting essential needs depends in part on achieving full growth potential, and sustainable development clearly requires economic growth in places where such needs are not being met. Elsewhere, it can be consistent with economic growth, provided the content of growth reflects the broad principles of sustainability and non-exploitation of others. But growth by itself is not enough. High levels of productive activity and widespread poverty can coexist, and can endanger the environment. Hence sustainable development requires that societies meet human needs both by increasing productive potjntial and by ensuring equitable opportunities for all. 7. An expansion in number« can increase the pressure on resources and slow the rise in living standards in areas where deprivation is widespread. Though the issue is not merely one of population size but of the distribution of resources, sustainable development can only be pursued if demographic developments are in harmony with the changing productive potential of the ecosystem. 8. A society may in many ways compromise its ability to meet thQ essential needs of its people in the future - by overexploiting resources, for example. The direction of technological developments may solve some immediate problems but lead to even greater ones. Large sections of the population may be marginalized by ill-considered development. 9. Settled agriculture, the diversion of watercourses, the extraction of minerals, the emission of heat aru noxious gases into the atmosphere, commercial forests, and atnetic manipulation are all examples oi human intervention in na* t> A comraunicati ne gap has kept environmental, population. and development absxetance groups apart tor tou long, preventing us from being aware of our common interest and realizing our combined power. Fortunately, the gap iß closing. We now know that what uniteB us it. vastly more important than what divides us. We recognize that poverty, environmental degradation, and poDulation growth are inextricably related and that none of these fundamental problems can be successfully addressed in isolation. We will succeed or fail together. Arriving at a commonly accepted definition of 'sustainable development' reraainß a challenge for all the actors in the development process. 'Making C imon Cause' U.S. Based Developuent. Environment. Population NGOs WCED Public Heat ing Ottawa. 26-27 May 1986 11. Economic growth and development obviously involve changes in the physical ecosystem. Every ecosystem everywhere cannot be preserved intact. A forest may be depleted in one part of a watershed and extended elsewhere, which is not a bad thing if the exploitation has been planned and the effects on soil eroBion rates, water regimes, and genetic lossee have been taken into account. In general, renewable resources like forests and fish stocks need not be depleted provided the rate of use is within the limits of regeneration and natural growth. But most renewable resources are part of a complex and interlinked ecosysten. and maximum sustainable yield must be defined after taking into account system-wide effects of exploitation. 12. As for ".on-renewable resources, like fossil fuels and minerals, tneir use reduces the stock available for future generations. But this does not mean that such resources should not be used. In ganeraV the rate of depletion Bhould take into account the crilicality of that resource, the availability of technologies for minimizing depletion, and the likelihood of substitutes being available. Thus land should not be degraded beyond reasonable recovery. With minerals and fossil fuels. Kuráte of depletion and the H If the desert is growing, forest disappearing, malnutrition increasing, and people in urban areas living in very bad conditions, it is not because we are lacking resources but the Kind of policy implemented by our rulers, by the elite group. Denying people rights and peoples' interests is pushing us to a situation where it is only the poverty that has a very prosperous future in Africa. And it is our hope that your Commission, the World Commission, will not overlook these problems of human rights in Africa and will put emphasis on it. Because it is only firee people, people who have right6. who are mature and responsible citizens, who then participate in the development and in the protection of the environment. Speaker from the floor WCED Public Hearing Nairobi, 23 Sept 1986 This shift is still under way in many developing countries. 20. It is not that there is one set of villains and another of victims. All would be better off if each person took into account the effect or" his or her acts upon others. But each is unwilling to assume that others will behave in uhi6 socially desirable fashion, and hence all continue to pursue narrow self-interest. Communities or governments can compensate for this isolation through laws, education, taxes, subsidies, and other methods. Well-enforced laws and strict liability legislation can control harmful side effects. Most important, effective participation in decision-making processes by local communities can help them articulate and effectively enforce their common interest. 21. Interdependence is not simply a local phenomenon. Rapid growth in production has extended it to the international piane, with both physical and economic manifestations. There are growing global and regional pollution effects, such as in the more than 200 international civer basins and the large number of shared sea6. 22. The enforcem nt of common interest often suffers because areas of political jurisdictions and areas of imiact do not coincide. Energy policies in one Jurisdiction cause acid precipitation in another. The fi6hing policies of one state affect the fish catch of another. No supranational authority existB to resolve such issues, and the common interest can only be articulated through international cooperation. 23. In the same way, the ability of a government to cor.lrol it6 national economy is reduced by growing international economic interactions. For example, foreign trade in commodities makes issues of carrying capacities and resource scarcities an international concern. (See Chapter 3.) If economic power and the benefits of trade were more equally distributed, common in1erest8 would be generally recognized. Bur the gains from trade are unequally distributed, and patterns cf trade in, say. A/42/427 Engl iah Page 59 sugar affect not merely a local sugar-producing sector, but the economies and ecologies of the many developing countries that depend heavily on this product. 24. The search for common interest would be less difficult if all development and environment problems had solutions that would leave everyone better off. This is seldom the case, and there are usually winners and losers. Many problems arise from inequalities in access to resources. An inequitable landownership structure can lead to overexploitation of resources in the smallest holdings, with harmful effects on both environment and development. Internationally, monopolistic control over resources can drive those who do not share in them to excessive exploitation of marginal resources. The differing capacities of exploiters to commandeer 'free' goods - locally, nationally, and internationally - is another manifestation of unequal access to resources. 'Losers' in environment/development conflicts include those who suffer more than their fair share of the health, property, and ecosystem damage costs of pollution. 25. As a system approaches ecological limits, inequalities sharpen. Thus when a watershed deteriorates, poor farmers suffer more because they cannot afford the same anti-erosion measures as richer farmers. When urban air quality deteriorates, the poor, in their more vulnerable areas, suffer more health damage than the rich, who usually live in more pristine neighbourhoods. When mineral resources become depleted, late-comers to the industrialization process lose the benefits of low-cost supplies. Globally, wealthier nations are better placed financially and technologically to cope with the effects of possible climatic change. 26. Hence, our inability to promote the common interest in sustainable development is often a product of the relative neglect of economic and social justice within and amongst nations. III. STRATEGIC IMPERATIVES 27. The world must quickly design strategies that will allow nations to move from their present, often destructive, processes of growth and development onto sustainable development oath6. This will require policy changes in all countries, with respect both to their own development and to their impacts on other nations' development possibilities. [This chapter concerns itself with national strategies. The required reorientation in international economic relations is dealt with in Chapter 3.) 28. Critical objectives for environment and development policies that follow from the concept of sustainable development i nclude: * reviving growth; * changing the quality of growth; * meeting essential needs for jobs, food, energy, water. and sanitation; h/M/Ml Knq1ish Paqe 60 * ensuring a sustainable level of population; * conserving and enhancing in» resource base; * reorienting technology and managing risk; and * merging environment and economics in decision making. 1. Reviving Growth *9 As indicated earlier, development that is sustainable has to address the problem of the large number of people who live in absolute poverty - that is, who are unable to satisfy even the most basic of their needs. Poverty reduces people's capacity ť use resources in a sustainable manner; it intensifies pressure on the environment. Most such absolute poverty is in developing countries; in many, it haß been aggravated by the economic stagnation of the 1980s. A necessary but not a sufficient condition for the elimination of absolute poverty is a relatively rapid rise in per capita incomes in the Third World. It is therefore essential that the stagnant or declining growth trends of this decade be reversed. 30. While attainable growth rates will vary, a certain minimum is needed to have any impact on absolute poverty. It seem6 unlikely that, taking developing countries as a whole, these objectives can be accomplished with per capita income growth of under 3 per cent. (See Box 2-1.) Given current population growth rates, this would require overall national income growth of around 5 per cent a year in the developing economies of Asia, 5.5 per cent in Latin America, and 6 per cent in Africa and West Asia. 31. Are these orders of magnitude attainable? The record in South and East Asia over the past quarter-century and especially over the last five years suggests that 5 pe; cent annual growth can be attained in most countries, including the two largest, India and China. In Latin America, average growth rates on the order of 5 per cent were achieved during the 1960s and 1970s, but fell well below that in the first half of this decade, mainly because of the debt crisis.1/ A revival of Latin American growth depends on the resolution of this crisis. In Africa, growth rates during the 1960b and 1970s were around 4-4.5 per cent, which at current rates of population growth would mean per capita income growth of only a little over 1 per cent.2/ř Moreover, during the 1980s, growth nearly halted and in two-thirds of the countries per capita income declined.3/ Attaining a minimum level of growth in Africa requires the correction of short-term imbalances, and also th-i removal of deep-rooted constraints on the growth process. 32. Growth must be revived in developing countries because that is where the links between economic growth, the alleviation of poverty, and environmental conditions operate most directly. Yet developing countries are part of an interdependent world economy; their prospects also depend on the levels and patterns of growth in industrialized nations. The medium-term prospects for industrial countries are for growth of 3 4 per cent, the minimum that international financial institutions consider necessary if these countries are going to play a part in expanding the world A/42/427 ľ.nq) ish BOX 2-1 Growth. Redistribution, ana Poverty 1. The poverty line is that level of income below which an individual or household cannot afford on a regular basiE the necessities of lrie. The percentage of the population below that line wil) depend on per capita national income and the manner in which it is distributed. How quickly can a developing country expect to eliminate absolute poverty? The answer will vary from country to country, but much can be learned from a typical case. 2. Consider a nation in which half the population lives below the poverty line and where the distribution of household incomes is as follows: the top one-fifth of households have 50 per cent of total income, the next fifth have 20 per cent, the next fifth have 14 per cent, the next fifth have 9 per cent, and the bottom fifth have just 7 per cent. This íb a fair representation of the situation in many low-income developing countries. 3. In thi6 case, if the income distribution remains unchaiged. per capita national income would have to double before the poverty ratio drops from 50 to 10 per cent. If income is redistributed in favour of the poor, this reduction can occur sooner. Consider the case in which 25 per cent of the incremental income of the richest one-fifth of the population is redistributed equally to the others. 4. The assumptions here about redistribution reflect three judgements. First, in mo6t situations redistributive policies can only operate on increases ir income. Cecouc. in low-income developing countries the surplus that can be skimmed off for redistribution is available only f rem the wealthier groups. Third, redistributive policies cannot be so precisely targeted that they deliver benefits only to those who are below the poverty line, so some of the benefits will accrue to those who are just a little above it. 5. The numher of years required to bring the poverty -jtio down from 50 to 10 per cent ranges from: * 18-24 year6 if per capita income growß at 3 per cent, * 26-36 years if it growB at 2 per cent, and * 51-70 years if it grows only at 1 per cent. In each case, the shorter time is associated wiih the redistribution of 25 per cent of the incremental income of the richest fifth of the population and the longer period with no redistribution. 6. So with per capita national income growing only at 1 per cent a year, the time required to eliminate absolute poverty would Btretch well into the next century. If, however, the aim is to ensure that the world is well on its way towards sustainable development by the beginning of the next century, it is necessary to aim at a minimum of 3 per cent per capita national income growth and to pursue vigorous redistributive policies. _________________________________________________________________________ A/42/427 Enqlish Page 6? e onomy. Such rowth rates could be environmentally sustainable if industrialized nations can continue the recent shifts in the content of their growth towards less material- and energy-intensive activities and the improvement of their efficiency in using materials and energy. 33. As industrialized nations use less materials and energy, however, they will provide smaller market b for commodities and minerals from the developing nations. Yet if developing nations focus their efforts upon eliminating poverty and satisfying essential human needs, then domestic demand will increase for both agricultural products and manufactured goods and some services. Hence the very logic of sustainable development implies an internal stiaulus to Third World growth. 34. Nonetheless, in large numbers of developing countries markets are very small; and for all developing countries high export growth, especially of non-traditional items, will also be necessary to finance imports, demand for which will be generated by rapid development. Thus a reorientation of international economic relations will be necessary for sustainable development, as discussed in Chapter 3. 2. Changing the Quality of Growth 35. Sustainable development involves more than growth. It requires a change in the content of growth, to make it less material- and energy-intensive and more equitable in its impact. These changes are required in all countries as part of a package of measures to maintain the stock of ecological capital, to improve the distribution of income, and to reduce th. degree of vulnerability to economic crises. 36. The process of economic development must be more soundly based upon the realities of the stock of capital that sustains it. This is rarely done in either developed or developing countries. For example, income from forestry operations is conventionally measured in terms of the value of timber and other products extracted, minus the costs of extraction. Tne costs of regenerating the forest are not taken into account, unless money is actually spent on such work. Thus figuring profits from logging rarely takes full account of the losses in future revenue incurred through degradation of the forest. Similar incomplete accounting occurs in the exploitation of other natural resources, especially in the case of resources that are not capitalized in enterprise or national accounts: air, water, and soil. In all countries, rich or poor, economic development mu6t take full account in its measurements of growth of the improvement or deterioration in the stock of natural resources. 37. Income distribution ' -. one aspect of the quality of growth, aB described in the preceding section, and rapid growth combined with deteriorating income distribution may be worse than slower growth combined with redistribution in favour of the poor. For instance, in many developing countries the introduction of large-scale commercial agriculture may produce revenue rapidly, but may also dispossess a large number of small farmers and make A/42/427 Friql i sh ľ;» n o M People have acquired, often for the first time in history, both an idea of their relative poverty and a desire to emerge from it and improve the quality of their lives. As people advance materially, and eat and l*ve better, what were once luxuries tend to be regarded as necessities. The net result is that the demand for food, raw materials, and power increase« to an even greater degree than the population. As demand increases, a greater and greater strain is put on the finite area of the world's land to produce the products needed. Dr. 1. P. Garbouchev Bulgarian Academy of Sciences WCED Public Hearing Moscow. 11 Dec 1966 income distribution more inequitable. In the long run. such a path may not be bustainable; it impoverishes many people and can increase pressures on the natural resource base through overcommercialized agriculture and through the marginalization of subsistence farmers. Relying more on smallholder cultivation may be slower at first, but more oasily sustained over the long term. 3B. Economic development is unsustainable if it increases vulnerability to crises. A drought may force farmers to slaughter animals needed for sustaining production in future years. A drop in prices may cause farmers or other producers to overexploit natural resources to maintain incomes. But vulnerability can be reduced by using technologies that lower production risks, by choosing institutional options that reduce market fluctuations, and by building up reserves, especially of food and foreign exchange. A development path that combines growth with reduced vulnerability is more sustainable than one that d}£s not. 39. Yet it is not enough to broaden the range of economic variables taken into account. Suetainability requires views of human needs ^nd well-being that incorporate such non-economic variables as education and health enjoyed for their own sake, clean air and water, and the protection of natural beauty. It must also work to remove disabilities from disadvantaged groups, many of whom live in ecologically vulnerable areas, such as many tribal groups in forestf, desert nomads, groups in remote hill areas, and indigenous peoples of the Americas and Australasia 40. Changing the quality of growth requires changing our approach to development efforts to take account of all of their effects. For instance, a hydropower project should not be seen merely as a way of producing aore electricity; its etfects upon the local environment and the livelihood of the local community raub t be included in any balance sheets. Thus the abandonment of a hydro project because it will disturb a rare ecological system could be a measure of progress, not a setback to development.4/ Nevertheless, in 6ome cases, sustainabi1ity considerations will involve a rejection of activities that are financially attractive in the short run. A/42/427 Knqlish Pagu 6 4 41. Economic and social development can and 6hould be mutually reinforcing. Money spent on education and health can raise human productivity. Economic development can accelerate social development by providing opportunities for underprivileged groups or by spreading education more rapidly. 3. Meeting Essential Human Need6 42. The satisfaction of human needß and aspirations is so obviously an objective of productive activity that it may appear redundant to assert it6 central role in the concept of sustainable development. All too often poverty Í6 such that people cannot satisfy their needs for survival and well-being even if goods and services are available. At the same time, the demands of those net in poverty may have major environmental consequences. 43. The principal development challenge is to meet the neeco6t technologies. See Chapter 9. 4. Ensuring a Sustainable Level of Population 48. The Bustainabili ty of development is intimately linked to the dynamics of population growth. The issue, however, is not simply one of global population 6ize. A child born in a country where levels of material and energy use are high places a greater burden on the Earth's resources than a child born in a poorer country. A similar argument applies within countries. Nonetheless, sustainable development can be pursued more easily when population 6ize is stabilized at a level consistent with the productive capacity of The ecosystem. 49. in industrial countries, the overall rate of population growth is under 1 per cent, and several countries have reached oi are approaching zero population growth. The total population of the industrialized world could increase from its current 1.2 billion to about 1.4 billion in the year 202S.8/ 50. The greater part of global population increase will take place in developing countries, where the 1985 population of 3.7 billion may increase to 6.8 billion by 2025.9/ The Third World doe6 not have the option of migration to 'new lands, and the time available fci adjustment is much less than industrial countries had. Hence the challenge now is to quickly lower A/4 2/4 J / Kivjl i s h population growth rates, especially in regions such as Africa, where these rates are increasing. 51. Birth rate6 declined in industrial countries largely because of economic and social development. Rising levels of income and urbanization and the changing role of women all played important roles. Similar processes aie now at work in developing countries. These 6hould be recognized and encouraged. Population policies should be integrated with other economic and social development programmes female education, health care, and the expansion of the livelihood base or the pocr. But time is short, and developing countries will als> have to promote direct measures to reduce fertility, to avoid going radically beyond the productive potential to t'vpport their populations. In tact, increased access to family planning services Í6 itself a form of so::?.l develop.ient that allows couples, and women in particular, the right to self-determination. 52. Population growth in developing countries will remain unevenly distributed between lu.al and urban areas. UK projections suggest rhat by tne first decade of the next century, the absolute size of rural populations in mo6t developing countries will star t•de-1ininn. Nearly 90 per cent of the increase in che developing world will take place in urban areas, the population of which in expected to rise from 1.15 billion in 1985 to ? ' million in 2025.1°/ The increase will be particularly marked in Africa and. to a leBter extent, in A6ia. 53. Developing-count ry citieB are growing much faster than the capacity of authorities to cope. Shortages of housing, water, sanitation, and ma66 transit are widespread. A growing proportion cf city-dwelľ ei? ľive in slums and shanty towns, many of them exposed to air and wal?r pollution and to industrial and natural hazards. Further deterioration is likely, given that most urban growth will take place in th'» largest cities. Thus more manageable cities may be the principal gain from Blower rates of population growth. 54. Urbanization ib itself part of the development process. The challenge is to manage the procesB bo as to avoid a severe deterioration in the quality of life." Thus the development of smaller urban centres needs to be encouraged to reduce preßBureß in large cities. Solving the impending urban crÍBÍ6 will require the promotion of self-help housing and urban services by and for the poor, and a more positive approach to the role of the informal Bector, supported by sufficient funds for water suppl sanitation, and other services. See Chapter 9. 5_.___Conserving and Enhancing the Resource Base 55. If needs are to be met on a sustainable basis the Earth'6 natural resource baße must be connerved and enhanced. Major changes in policies will be needed to cope with the industrial world's current high levels of consumption, the increases in consumption needed to meet minimum 6trindatds in developing countiieß, and expected population growth. However, the case for the conservation of nature should not rest only with development A/42/427 Kri'j 1 i r>h Paqe 6 7 goals. It is part of our moral obligation to other living beings and future generations. 56. Pressure on resources increases when people lack alternatives. Development policies must widen people's options for earning a sustainable livelihood, particularly for resource-poor households and in areas under ecological stress. In a hilly area, for instance, economic self-interest and ecology can be combined by helping farmers shift from grain to tree crops by providing them with advice, equipment, and marketing assistance. Programmes to protect the incomes of farmers, fishermen, and foresters against short-term price declines may decrease their need to overexploit resources. 57. The conservation of agricultural resources is an urge.' task because in many parts of the world cultivation ha6 already been extended to marginal lands, and fishery and forestry resources hav« been overexploited. These resources must be conserved and enhanced to meet the needs of growing populations. Land use in agriculture and forestry must be based on a scientific assessment of land capacity, and the annual depletion of topaoil. fish stock, or forest resources must not exceed the rate of regeneration. 53. The pressures on agricultural land from crop and livestock production can be partly relieved by increasing productivity. But short-sighted, short-term improvements in productivity can create different forms of ecological stress, such as the loss of genetic diversity in standing crops, salinization and alkalization of irrigated lands, nitrate pollution of ground-water, and pesticide residues in food. Ecologically more benign alternatives are available. Future increases in productivity, in both developed and developing countries, should be based on the better controlled application of water and agrrchemica1b , as well as on more extensive use of organic manures and non-chemiral means of pest control. These alternatives can be promoted only by an agricultural policy based on ecological realities. (See Chapter 5.) 59. In the case of fisheries and tropical forestry, we rely largely on the exploitation of the naturally available stocks. The sustainable yield from these stockB may well fall short of demand. Hence it will be necessary to turn to methods that produce nor" fish, fuelwood. and fcrest products under controlled conditions. institutes for fuelwood can be promoted. 60. The ultimate limits to global development are perhaps determined by the availability of energy resources and by the biosphere's capacity to absorb the by-products of energy ubc.11/ These energy limits may be aiproached far sooner than the limits imposed by other material resources. First, there are the supply problems: the depletion of oil reserves, the high cost and environmental impact of coal mining, and the hazards of nuclear technology. second, there are emission problems, most notably acid pollution and carbon dioxide build-up leading to global warming. A/4 2/4,' 7 K n q l i íih Paq«' 6H I work with rubber trees in the Amazon. I am here to speak about the tropical forest. We live from this forest they want to destroy. And we want to take this opportunity of having so many people here gathered with the r,arae objective in mind to defend our habitat, the conservation of forest, of tropical forest. In my area, we have about 14-16 native products that we extract from the forest, be6ide6 all the other activities we have. So I think thi6 must be preserved. Because it is not only with cattle, not only wi^h pasture lands, and not only with highways that we will be able to develop the Amazon. Wheti they think of falling trees, they always Lhink of building roads and the roads bring destruction under a mask called progress. Let us put this progress where the lands have already been deforested, where it J6 idle of labour and where we have to find people work, and where we have to make the city grow. But let us leave those who want to live in the forest, who want to keep it as it is We have nothing written. I don't have anything that was created in somebody's office. There is no philosophy. It is just the real truth, because this Í6 what our life is. Jaime Da Silva Araujo Rubber Tapper Council WCED Public Hearing Sao Paulo, 28-29 Oct lyflS 61. Some of these problems can be met by increased use of renewable energy Bources. But the exploitation of renewable sources such as fuelwood and hydropower al60 entails ecological problems. Hence sustainability requires a clear focus on conserving and efficiently using energy. 62. Industrialized countries must recognize that their energy consumption is polluting the biosphere and eating into scarce fossil fuel supplies. Recent improvements in energy efficiency and a shift towards less energy-intensi ve sectors have helped limit consumption. But the process must be accelerated to redure per capita consumption and encourage a 6hift to non polluting sources and technologies. The simple duplication in the developing world of industrial countries' energy use patterns is neither feasible nor oesirable. Changing these patterns for the better will call for new policies in urban development, industry location, housing design, transportation systems, and the choice of agricultural and industrial techno) jie6. 63. Non-fuel mineral resources appear to pose fewer supply problems. Studies done before i960 that assumed an exponentially growing demand did not envisage a problem until well into the next century.^-2/ since then, world consumption of most metals has remained nearly constant, which suggests that the exhaustion of non-fuel minerals is even more distant. The history of technological developments also suggestE that industry can adjust to scarcity through greater efficiency in use, recycling, and substitution. More immediate needs include modifying the pattern Knql ifih ť,i<)f 69 Indigenous people^ are the base of what I guess could be called the environmental security systém. We are the gate-Keepers of success or failure to husband our resources. For many of ut, however, the last few centuries have meant a major loss of cortrol over our lands and waters. We are still the first ro know about changes in the environment, but we are now the laut to be asked or consulted. We are t lie first to detect when the forests are baing threatened, *a they are under the sla6h and grab economics of this country. And we are the last to be asked about the future of our forests. Ke are the first to feel the pollution of our waters, as the Ojibway peoples of my own homelands in northern Ontario will attest. And, of course, we are the la6t to be consulted about how, when, and where developments should take place in order to assure continuing harmony for the seventh generat ion. The most we have learned to expect is to be compensated, always too late and too little. We are seldom asked to help avoid the need for compensation by lending our expertise and our consent to development. Louis Bruyere President, Native Council of Canada WCED Public Hearing Ottawa. 26-27 May 1986 of world trade in minerals to allow exporters a higher share in the value added from mineral use, and improving the access of developing countries to mineral supplies, as their demands increase. 64. The prevention and reduction of air and water pollution will remain a critical task of resource conservation. Air and water quality come under pressure from such activities as fertilizer and pesticide use, urban sewage, fossil fuel burning, the use of certain chemicals, and various other industrial activities. Each of these is expected to increase the pollution load on the biosphere substantially, particularly in developing countries. Cleaning up after the event is an expensive solution. Hence all countries need to anticipate and prevent these pollution problems, by, for instance, enforcing emission standarde that reflect likely long-term effects, promoting low-waste technologies, and anticipating the impact of new products, technologies, and wastes. 6. Reorienting Technology and Managing Risk 65. The fulfilment of all these tasks will require the reorientation of technology the key link between humans and nature. First, the capacity for technological innovation needs to be greatly enhanced in developing countries so that they can respond more effectively to the challenges of sustainable development. Second, the orientation of technology development must be changed to pay giedter attention to environmental factore. A/4 2/4 2 7 Kn<) 1 ish Patli- 70 66. The technologies of industrial countries are not always suited or easily adaptable to the socio-economic and environmental conditions of developing countries. To compound the problem, the bulk of world research and development addresses few of the pressing issues facing these countries, such as arid-land agriculture or the control of tropical diseases. Not enough is being done to adapt recent innovations in materials technology, energy conservation, information technology, and biotechnology to the needs of developing countries. These gaps must be covered by enhancing research, design, development, and extension capabilities in the Third World. 67. In all countries, the processes of generating alternative technologies, upgrading traditional ones, and selecting and adapting imported technologies should be informed by environmental resource concerns. Most technological research by commercial organizations is devoted to product and process innovations that have market value. Technologies are needed that produce 'social goods', such as improved air quality or increased product life, or that resolve problems normally outside the cost calculus of individual enterprises, such as the external costs of pollution or waste disposal. 68. The role of public policy is to ensure, through incentives and disincentives, that commercial organizations find it worthwhile to take fuller account of environmental ffictors in the technologies they develop. (See Chapter 6.) Publicly fun-Jed research institutions also need such direction, and the objectives of sustainable development and environmental protection must be built into the mandates of the institutions that work in environmentally sensitive areas. 69. The development of environmentally appropriate technologies is closely related to questions of risk management. Such systems as nuclear reactors, electric and other utility distribution networks, communication systems, and mass transportation are vulnerable if stressed beyond a certain point. The fact that they are connected through networks tends to make them immune to small disturbances but more vulnerable to unexpected disruptions that exceed a finite threshold. Applying sophisticated analyses of vulnerabilities and past failures to technology design, manufacturing standards, and contingency plans in operations can make the consequences of a failure or accident much leBS catastrophic. 70. The best vulnerability and risk analysis ha6 not been applied consistently across technologies or systems. A major purpose of large system design should be to make the consequences of failure or sabotage less serious. There is thus a need for new techniques and technologies - as well as legal and institutional mechanisms - for safety design and control, accident prevention, contingency planning, damage mitigation, and provision of relief. 71. Environmental risks arising from technological and developmental decisions impinge on individuals and areas that have little or no influence on those decÍRÍon6. Their interests must be taken into account. National and interna t i ona 1 l.n'j 1 i .si) ľ,«I«' 71 institutional mechanisms are needed to assess potential impacts of new technologies before they are widely used, in order to ensure that their production, use. and disposal do not overstress environmental resources. Similar arrangements are required for major interventions in natural systems, such as river diversion or forest clearance. In addition, liability for damages from unintended consequences must be strengthened and enforced. 7. Merging environment and Economics in Decision Making 72. The common theme throughout this strategy for sustainable development is 'he need to integrate economic and ecological considerations in decision mailing. They are. after all. integrated in the workings of the real world. This will require a change in attitudes and objectives and in institutional arrangements at every level. 73. Economic and ecological concerns are not necessarily in opposition. For example, policies that conserve the quality of agricultural land and protect forests improve the long-term prospects for agricultural development. An increase in the efficiency of energy and material use serve« ecological purposes but can also reduce cost6. But the compatibility of environmental and economic objectives is often lost in the pursuit of individual or group gains, with little regard for the impacts on others, with a blind faith in science's ability to find solutions, and in ignorance of the distant consequences of today's decisions. Institutional rigidities add to this myopia. 74. One important rigidity is the tendency to deal with one industry or sector in isolation, failing to recognize the importance of intersectoral linkages. Modern agriculture uses substantial amounts of commercially produced energy and large quantities of industrial products. At the same time, the more traditional connection - in which agriculture is a source of raw materials for industry - is being diluted by the widening use of synthetics. The energy- industry connection is also changing, with a strong tendency towards a decline in the energy intensity of industrial production in industrial countries. In the Third World, however, the gradual shift of the industrial base towards the basic material producing sectors is leading to an increase in the energy intensity of industrial production. 7b. These intersectoral connections create patterns of economic and ecological interdependence rarely reflected in the ways in which policy is made. Sectoral organizations tend to pursue sectoral objectives and to treat their impacts on other sectors as side effects, taken into account only if compelled to do so. Hence impacts on forests rarely worry those involved in guiding public policy or business activities in the fields of energy, industrial development, crop husbandry, or foreign trade. Many of the environment and development probl ras that confront us have their root6 in this sectoral fragmentation of responsibility. Sustainable development requires that such fragmentation be overcome. Kni) 1 i si» Prtijť Ti- The issues that have been brought forward here. 1 thinK, are wide-ranging and maybe you know, maybe you don't know, the answers to all those Í6sue6. But at least by hearing all those questions, stories, all these expressions that have been put forward, at least you could have 6ome idea. You don't know the answers nor the solutions, but you could suggest the way to solve many problemß and this is by suggesting either to governments, or the UN. or international agencies, to solve any problem the best way: that is to include those with d;rect interests in it. The beneficiaries, as well aß the victims of any development issue should be included, should be heard. I think that is the one thing, maybe that all of ub are hearing here, or expecting: that in every development planning or development issue as much as possible to listen and to include, to consult the people conce ned. If that is taken care of. at least one step of the problem Í6 resolved. Ismid Hadad Chief Editor. Prisma WCED Public Hearing Jakarta, 26 March 198b 76. Sustainability requires the enforcement of wider responsibilities for the impacts of decisions. This requires changes in the legal and institutional frameworks that will enforce the common interest. Some necessary changes in the legal framework start from the proposition that an environment adequate for health and well-being is essential for all human beings including future generations. Such a view places the right to use public and private resources in its proper social context and provides a goal for more specific measures. 77. The law alone cannot enforce the common interest. It principally needs community knowledge and support, which entails greater public participation in the decisions that affect the environment. This is best secured by decentralizing the management of resources upon which local communities defend, and giving these communities an effective say over the use f these resources. It will also require promoting citizens' initiatives, empowering people'6 organizations, and strengthening local democracy. ^3/ 78. Some large-scale projects, however, require participation on a different basis. Public inquiries and hearings on the development and environment impacts can help greatly in drawing attention to different points of view. Free access to relevant information and the availability of alternative sources of technical expertise can provide an informed basis for public discussion. When the environmental impact of a proposed project is particularly high, public scrutiny of the case should be mandatory and. wherever fe?«iible. the decision should be subject to prior public approval, perhaps by referendum. A/4Ü/427 ľ.nql i«'» Pat) f 7'1 It has not been too difficult to pu6h the environment lobby of the North and the development lobby of the Soutii together. And there is now in fact a blurring of the distinction between the two, so they are coming to have a common consensus around the theme of sustainable development. The building blocKs are there. Environmental concern Í6 common to both sides. Humanitarian concern is common to both sides. The difference lies in the methods of each and the degree to which each side tries to achieve its own economic interest through the development assistance process. The time is right for bridging this gap for some very pragmatic political reasons. First of all, the people of the North do not want to see their taxes wasted. Secondly, they do not want to see growing poverty, and they obviously care for the environment, be it the environment of the North, where they live, or of the South. And the majority of people in the South do not want short-term overpass solutions. in effect, there is a political community of interest, North and South, in the concept of sustainable development that you can build upon. Richard Sandbrook International institute for Environment and Development VCED Public Hearing Oslo, 24-2b June 19Bb 79. Changes are also required in the attitudes and procedures of both public and private-sector enterprises. Moreover, environmental regulation must move beyond the usual menu of safety regulations, zoning laws, and pollution control enactments; environmental objectives must be built into taxation, prior approval procedures for investment and technology choice, foreign trade incentives, and all components of development pol icy . 80. The integration of economic and ecological factors into the law and into decision making systems within countries has to be matched at the international level. The growth in fuel and material use dictates that direct physical linkages between ecciysteras of different countries will increase. Economic interactions through trade, finance, investment, and travel will also grow and heighten economic and ecological interdependence. Hence in the future, even more so than now. sustainable development requires the unification of economics and ecology in international relations, as discussed in the next chapter. IV. CONCLUSION 81. In its broadest sense, the 6tiategy for sustainable development aims to promote harmony among human bpings and between humanity and nature. In the specific context of the development and fnv i r onrnen t crimen of t hi- ]^HOb, which current A/4Ü/4Z7 K n q 1 i s h ľacit» 7 4 national and international political and economic institutions have not and perhaps cannot ovcrcone, the pursuit of sustainable development requires: * a political system that secures effective citizen participation in decision making. * an economic syst»« that is able to generate surpluses and technical knowledge on a self-reliant and sustained basis. * a social system that provides for solutions for the tensions arising fron disharmonious development. * a production syotem that respect6 the obligation to preserve the ecological base for development. * a technological syn tem that can search continuously for new solutions. * an international system that fo6ter6 sustainable patterns of trade and finance, and * an administrative system that is flexible and has the capacity for self-correction. 82. These requirements are more in the nature of goals that should underlie national and international action on development. What matters is the sincerity with which these goals are pursued and the effectiveness with which departures from them are corrected. Footnotes 1/ UNCTAD. Handbook of International Trade and Development Statistics 1985 Supplement (New York: 1985). 2/ Ibid. 3/ Department of International Economic and Social Affairs (DIESA). Doubling Development Finance. Meeting a Global Challenge. Views and Recommendations of the Comaitee for Development Planning (New York: UN. 1986). 4/ One example ot such a decision to forgo a developmental benefit in the interent of conservation is provided by the dropping of the Silent Valley Hydro project in India 5/ Based on data from Horld Bank, World Development Report 1984 (New York: Oxford University Prese, 1984). 6/ Based on per capita consumption data from FAO. Production Yearbook 1984 (Rome: 1985) and population projections from DIESA. World Population Prospects: Estimates and Projections as Assessed in 1984 (New York: UN. 1986). A/4Ü/427 Knqltsh Paqe 7r) 7/ FAO. Fuelwood Supplies in the Developing Countries. Forestry Paper No. 42 (Rome: 1983). 8/ DIESA, World Population Prospects, op. cit. 9/ Ibid. 10/ Ibid. 11/ W. Häfele and W. Sassin. 'Resources and Endowments. An Outline of Future Energy Systems', in P.W. Hemily and M.N. Ozdas (eds.). Science and Future Choice (Oxford: Clarendon Press. 1979). 12/ See. for example. OECD. Interfutures: Facing the Future (Paris: 1979) and Council on Environmental Quality and U.S. Department of State, The Global 2000 Report to the President: Entering the Twenty-First Century. The Technical Report. Vol. Two (Washington. DC: U. S. Government Printing Office, 1980). 13/ See 'For Municipal Initiative and Citizen Power1, in INDERENA. La Campana Verde y los Concelos Verdes (Bogota, Colombia: 1985). A/42/427 English Page 7b CHAPTER 3 THE ROLE OP THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY 1. Through the ages, people have reached beyond their own borders to obtain essential, valued, or exotic materials. Today's surer communications and larger trade and capital movements have greatly enlarged thiß process, quickened its pace, and endowed it with far-reaching ecological implications. Thus the pursuit of sustainability requires major changes in international economic relations. I. THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY. THE ENVIRONMENT. AND DEVELOPMENT 2. Two conditions must be satisfied before international economic exchanges can become beneficial for all involved. The sustainability of ecosystems on which the global economy depends must be guaranteed. And the economic partners must be satisfied that the basis of exchange is equitable; relationships that are unequal and based on dominance of one kind or another are not a sound and durable basis for interdependence. For many developing countries, neither condition is met. 3. Economic and ecological links between nations have grown rapidly. This widens the impact of the growing inequalities in the economic development and strength of nations. The asymmetry in international economic relations compounds the imbalance, as developing nations are generally influenced by - but unable to influence - international economic conditions. 4. International economic relationships pose a particular problem for poor countries trying to manage theic environments, since the export of natural resources remains a large factor in their economies, especially those of the least developed nations. The instability and adverse price trends faced by most of these countries make it impossible for them to manage their natural resource bases for sustained production. The rising burden of debt servicing and the decline in new capital flows intensify those forces that lead to environmental deterioration and resource depletion occurring at the expense of long-term development. 5. The trade in tropical timber, for example, is one factor underlying tropical deforestation. Needs for foreign exchange encourage many developing countries to cut timber faster than forests can be regenerated. This overcutting not only depletes the resource that underpins the world timber trade, it causes the lose of forest-based livelihoods, increases soil erosion and iownst ream flooding, and accelerates the Iobb of specieB and Best Copy Available A/4 ľ/4 27 y.nn i i.'.h l\ľ]<- 77 BOX 3-1 Cotton Produced for Export in the Sahel In 1983-84. as drought and hunger were taking hold in the Sahel regicn of Africa, five Sahelian nations - Burkina Faso. Chad. Mali. Niger, and Senegal - produced record amounts of cotton. They harveeted 1B4 million tons of cotton fibre, up from 22.7 million tons in 1961-62. The Sahel as a whole set another record in 1984: It imported a record 1.77 million tons of cereals, up from 200,000 tons yearly in the early 1960s, over the period that Sahelian cotton harvests were steadily rising, world cotton prices were steadily falling in real terms. These figures do not suggest that Sahelian nations should plough up all cotton to plant sorghum and millet. But the fact that farmers who can grow cotton cannot grow enough food to feed themselves suggests that cash crops are getting too much attention and food crops too little. Source: J. Giri, 'Retrospei ive de l'Economie Sahelienne*. Club du Sahel. Paris. 1984. genetic resources. International trade patterns can also encourage the unsustainable development policies and practices that have steadily degraded the croplands and rangelarda in the drylands of Asia and Africa: an example of that is provided by the growth of cotton production for export in the Sahel region. (See Box 3-1.) 6. Growth in many developing countries also requires external capital inflows. Without reasonable flows, the prospect for any improvements in living standards is bleak. As a result, the poor will be forced to overuse the environment to ensure their own survival. Long-term development thus becomes much harder, and in some cases impossible. Yet trends in the movement of capital are worrying. Net resource flows to developing countries have fallen in real terms; in aggregate, there is now actually an outflow. (See Table 3-1.) The increase of international capital flows to developing countries expected over the rest of the 1980s is only half that thought necessary to restore growth to levels where a reduction in poverty can occur.l/ 7. A mere increase in flows of capital to developing countries will not necessarily contribute to development. Domestic efforts are of paramount importance. More external funding is also required, but it must come in ways that are sensitive to the environmental impacts. The point is that the reduction of poverty itself is a precondition for environmentally sound development. And resource flows from rich to poor f Iowa improved both qualitatively and quantitatively are a precondition for the eradication of poverty. A, 41, ) 1 i !-.ti l\i.|i> HO * poverty and hunger leading to environmental degradation, deteriorating agriculture, and hence more poverty and hunger; * falling savings and a neglect of new investment in the wake of growing poverty; * high infant mortality, poverty, and lack of education; * high population growth rates; and * a flight from rural hunger to the cities, leading to explosive levelB of urban growt> and squalor, compounding the problems of inadequate food supplies. 13. The situation is not everywhere so bleak. Some nations have coped well, and some far-reaching and courageous policy reforms begun in the last few years have begun to bear fruit. Encouragement also come6 from South Asia, where a comparable crisis 20 years ago has given way to an upward spiral of rising food production, diminishing (but 6till vast) poverty, slowing population growtn, rising Bavings and nvestment, and greater attention to the long-term questions of environmental management and appropriate technology. 14. Among the many causes of the African crisis, the workings of the international economy stand out. Sub-Saharan Africa's economic well-being depends even more than low-income Asia'6 on developments in the world economy. Within the last decade, many sub-Saharan countries have been hit by adverbe trends in commodity terms of trade and external shocks such as higher oil prices, fluctuating exchange rates, and higher interest rates. Over the last 10 years, the prices of major commodities Buch as copper, iron ore, sugar, ground-nuts, rubber, timber, and cotton have fallen significantly. In 1985. the terms of trade of sub-Saharan countries (except oil-exporting countries) were 10 per cent below 1970 levels. In countries eligible for funds from the International Development Association (IDA), the average fall was well over 20 per cent, with se severe and regressively skewed cute in wages, social services, investment, consumption, and employment, both public and private, further aggravating social inequity and widespread poverty. Pressures on the environment and resources have increased sharply in the search for new and expanded exports and replacements for imports, together with the deterioration and overexploita t ion of Km)! inli ľ.iqc H t The impact of the present crisis on Latin America has been compared, in its depth and extension, with the Great Depression of 1929-32. The crisis has made it clear that, although the need to protect the environment against the traditional problems of deterioration and depletion continues to be a valid objective, policymakers responsible for environmental management ought to avoid negative attitudes in the face of the need for economic reactivation and growth. The expansion, conservation, maintenance, and protection of the environment can make an essential contribution to the improvement of the standard of living, to employment, and to productivity. Osvaldo Sunkel Coordinator. Joint ECLA/UNEP Development and Environment Unit WCED Public Hearing Sao Paulo. 28-29 Oct 198S the environment brought about by the swelling number of the urban and rural poor in desperate struggle for survival. A substantial part of Latin America's rapid growth in exports are raw materials, food, and resource-based manufactures. 24. So Latin American natural resources are being used not for development or to raise living standards, but to meet the financial requirements of industrialized country creditors. This approach to the debt problem raises questions of economic, political, and environmental sustainability. To require relatively poor countries to simultaneously curb their living standards, accept growing poverty, and export growing amounts of scarce resources to maintain external creditworthiness reflects priorities few democratically elected governments are likely to be able to tolerate for long. The present situation is not consiftent with sustainable development. This conflict is aggravated by the economic policies of some major industrial countries, whic have depressed and destabilized the international economy. In order to bring about socially and environmentally sustainable development it is indispensable, among other elements, for industrial countries to resume internationally expansionary policies of growth, trade, and investment. The Commission noted that, *n these circumstances, some debtor countries have felt forced to suspend or limit the net outflow of -inds. 25. Growing numbers of creditor banks and official agencies are realizing that many debtors simply will not be able to keep servicing their debts unless the burden is eased. Measures under discussion include additional new lending. forgiveneBB of part of the debt, longer-term rescheduling, and conversion to softer terms. But a necessary sense of urgency is lacking. Any such measures must incorporate the legitimate interests of creditors and debtors and represent a fairer sharing of the burden of reBo'ving the debt crisis. A -'A.'/AJ 1 Kii>1 I if.li ľ.HI«- U4 III. ENABLIHG SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT 26. Developing countries have sought, for many year6. fundamental changes in international economic arrangements so as to make them more equitable, particularly with regard to financial flows, trade, transnational investment, and technology transfer.16/ Their arguments must now be recast to reflect the ecological dimensions, frequently overlooked in the pa6t. 27. In the short run. for mo6t developing countries except the largest a new era of economic growth hinges on effective and coordinated ec< nomic management among major industrial countries - designed to ilitate expansion, to reduce real interest rates, and to halt the slide to protectionism. In the longer term, major changes are also required to make consumption and production patterns sustainable in a context of higher global growth. 26. International cooperation to achieve the former is embryonic, and to achieve the latter, negligible. In practice, and in the absence of global management of the economy or the environment, attention must be focused on the improvement of policies in areas where the scope for cooperation is already defined: aid, trade, transnational corporations, and technology transfer. l. Enhancing the Flow of Resources to Developing Countries 29. Two interrelated concerns lie at the heart of our recommendations on financial flows: one concerns the quantity, the other the 'quality ol resource flows to developing countries. The need for more resources cannot be evaded. The idea that developing countries would do better to live within their limited means is a cruel illusion. Global poverty cannot be reduced by the governments of poor countries acting alone. At the same time, more aid and other forms of finance, while necessary, are not sufficient. Projects and programmes must be designed for sustainable development. l.l Increasing the Flow of Finance 30. As regards the quantity of resources, the stringency of external finance has already contributed to an unacceptable decline in living standards in developing countries. The patterns and the needs of the heavily indebted countries that rely mainly on commercial finance have been described, along with those of low-income countries that depend on aid. But there are other poor countries that have made impressive progress in recent years but still face immense problems, not least in countering environmental degradation. Low-income Asia has a continuing need for large amounts of aid; in general, the main recipients in this region have a good record of aid management. Without such aid it will be much more difficult to sustain the growth that, together with poverty-focused programmes, could improve the lot of A/42/427 Km ji i;-, h Pa The universal importance of ecological problems can hardly be denied. Their succer.eful solution will increasingly require coordinated activities not only within every country's economy but also within the scope of international cooperation. Ecological problems are unprecedented in the history of mankind. Dr. Todor 1. Bozhinov Committee tor Environment Protection. Bulga)ia WCED Public Hearing Moscow. 8 Dec 1986 hundreds of millions of the 'absolute poor'. 31. To meet such needs requires that the main dcnors and lending institutions re-examine their policies, official development assistance (ODA) levels have stagnated in absolute terms, and most donor countries fall well short of internationally agreed targets. Commercial lending and lending by export credit agencies has fallen sharply. As part of a concerted effort to reverse these trends it is vitally important for development that there should be a substantial increase in resources available to the World Bank and IDA. Increased commercial bank lending is also necessary for major debtors. 1.2 Lending for Sustainable Development 32. In the past, development assistance has not always contributed to sustainable development and in some cases detracted from it. Lending for agriculture, forestry, fishing, and energy has usually been made on narrow economic criteria that take little account of environmental effects For instance, development agencies have sometimes promoted chemical-dependent agriculture, rather than sustainable, regenerative agriculture. It is important therefore that there ohould be a qualitative as well as a quantitive improvement. 33. A larger portion of total development assistance should go to investments needed to enhance the environment and the productivity of the resource sectors. Such efforts include reforestation and fuelwood development, watershed protection, soil conservation, agroforestry, rehabilitation of irrigation projects, small-scale agriculture, low-cost sanitation measures, and the conversion of crops into fuel. Experience has shown that the most effective efforts of this type are small projects with maximum grass-roots participation. The programmes most directly related to the objective of sustainable development may therefore involve higher local costs, a higher ratio of recurrent to capital costs, and a greater use of local technology and expert i se. 34. A shift towards projrct6 of this kind would also require donors to re-examine the content of their aid programmes, particularly with regard to commodity assistance, which has A/4 J/427 Krmi i «h The industrialized world's demands for raw materials, higher productivity, and material goods have imponed serious environmental impacts and high economic costs not only in our own countries, but also on the developing world. The existing international patterns of financial, economic trade and investment policies further add to the problems. We must all be willing to examine our relations in international trade, investments, development assistance, industry, and agriculture in light of the consequences these may have for underdevelopment and environmental destruction in the Third World. We must even be willing to go further and implement the means necessary to alienate these symptoms. Rakel Surlien Former Minister of Environment. Government of Norway WCED Opening Ceremony Oslo. 24 June 1985 sometimes served to reduce rather than enhance the possibilities for sustainable development. (See Chapter 5.) 35. The major priority is for sustainability considerations to be diffused throughout the work of international financial institutions. The roles of the World Bank and the IMF are particularly crucial because their lending conditions are being used as benchmarks for parallel lending by other institutions -commercial banks and export credit agencies. It is important in this context that sustainability considerations be taken into account by the Bank in the appraisal of structural adjustment lending and other policy-oriented lending directed to resource-based sectors - agriculture, fishing, forestry, and energy in particular - as well as specific projects. 36. A similar shift of emphasis is required in respect of adjustment programmes undertaken by developing countries. To date, 'adjustment' - particularly under IMF auspice1 - has led more often than not to cutbacks in living standards in the interest of financial stabilization. Implicit in many suggested plans for coping with the debt crisis is the growing recognition that future adjustment should be growth-oriented. Yet it also needs to be environmentally sensitive. 37. The IMF also has a mandate for structural adjustment lending, as in its new Structural Adjustment Facility. There has been a strongly expressed demand from developing-country borrowers for the Fund to take into account wider and longer-term development objectives than financial stabilization: growth, social goals, and environmental impacts. 38. Development agencies, and the World Bank in particular, should develop easily usable methodologies to augment their own appraisal techniques and to assist developing countries to improve their capacity for environmental assessment. A/42/4<> Kiv) 1 i b h 2. Linking Trade. Environment, and Development 39. The importance of foreign trade to national development has greatly increased lor most countries in the post-war period. (See Table 3-2.) This is one measure of the extent to which trade has made nations, economically and ecologically, more interdependent. Patterns of world trade also have changed markedly. First, the value of trade in manufactured goodB grew at a faster rate than that in primary products other than fuel, and a growing number of developing countries have emerged as major exporters of such goods. Manufactured goods now account for twice the value of developing countries' non-oil exports.17/ (See Chapter 8.) Second, the industrialized market economies have come to depend more on fuel imports from developing countries, which accounted for 43 per cent of consumption in 1980-81 compared with only 16 per cent in 1959-60 and even less in pre-war years.18/ 40. The dependence of the developed market economies on other mineral imports from the developing countries has also grown, and the share of these imports in consumption increased from 19 per cent in 1959-60 to 30 per cent in 1980-81.19/ Non-renewable resources like fuels and minerals, as well as manufactured goods. are now far more important than tropical products and other agricultural materials in the flow of primary products from developing to industrial countries. In fact, the flow of food grains is in the opposite direction. 41. The main link between trade and sustainable development is the use of non-renewable raw materials to earn foreign exchange. Developing countries face the dilemma of having to use commodities as exports, in order to break foreign exchange constraints on growth, while also having to minimize damage to the environmental resource base supporting this growth. There are other links between trade and sustainable development; if protectionism raises barriers against manufactured exports, for example, developing nations have less scope for diversifying away from traditional commodities. And unsustainable development may arise not only from overuse of certain commodities but from manufactured goods that are potentially polluting. 2.1 Int ernational Commodity Trade 42. Although a growing number of developing countries have diversified into manufactured exports, primary commodities other than petroleum continue ti account for more than one-third of the export earnings of the group as a whole. Dependence on such exports is particularly high in Latin America (52 per cent) and Africa (62 per cent).20/ The countries recognized as 'least developed' for the purposes of the UN Special Programme use primary commodities for 73 per cent of their export earnings.Z1/ 43. Non-oil commodity prices fell during the early 1980s, not only in real but also in nominal terme. By early 1985, the UNCTAD commodity price index was 30 per cent below the 1980 a a: 'a.' / Km) 1 i sh ľ.mi- HH TABLE 3-2 The Growing Importance of Trade Economic Group 1950 1982 (exports as a per cent of GDP or NMP) Developed MacKet Economies Developing Market Economies Socialist Countries of Eastern Europe Socialist Countries cf Asia 7 . 7 IS.S 3.4* 2.9" IS. 3 23 . 8 16 . 6* 9.7* •percentages to net material product (NMP). Source: Based on UNCTAD. Handbook of International Trade and Development Statistics. 1985 Supplement (New York: United Nations. 1985). average.22/ Thi6 recent weakness of commodity prices may not be only a temporary phenomenon. Commodity prices have not yet recovered from the depth of the world recession despite increased economic growth in consuming countries. The reasons may be partly technological (an acceleration in raw material substitution); partly monetary, caused by the high cost of holding stocks of commodities; and partly due to increases in supplies by countries desperate to earn foreign exchange. 44. These countries are turning the terra* of trade against themselves, earning leßs while exporting more. The promotion of increased volumes of commodity exports has led to cäßes of unsustainable overuse of the natural resource base. While individual case6 may not exactly fit this generalization, it haß been argued that such processes have been at work in ranching for beef, fishing in both coastal and deep sea waters, forestry, and the growing of some cash crops. Moreover, the prices of commodity exports do not fully reflect the environmental costs to the resource base. In a sense, then, poor developing countries are being caused to subsidize the wealthier importers of their products. 45. The experience of oil has of course been different from that of most other commodities. (See Chapter 7.) It does provide one example of producers combining to restrict output and raise prices in ways that greatly increased export earnings while conserving the resource base and promoting energy saving and substitution on a large scale. Kecent events suggest that regulation of the market by producers is very difficult in the long term, whether or not it. i b desirable in the wider, global A/42/427 F.nqlish Page 89 interest, and in any event the conditions have not existed for other commodity exporters to operate in a like manner. Any arrangement encompassing measures to enhance the export earnings of producers, as well as to ensure tne resource basis, would require consumer as well as producer support. 46. In recent years. Third World commodity exporters have sought to earn more by doing tha first-stage processing of raw materials themselves. This first stage often involves subsidized energy, other concessions, and substantial pollution costs. But these countries often find that they do not gain much from this capital- and energy-intensive first-stage processing, as the price spread shifts in favour o£ downstream products, most of which continue to be m?r>ufactured mainly in industrial countries. Tariff escalation in the industrial market economies reinforces this tendency. 47. The main international response to commodity problems has been the development of international commodity agreements to stabilize and raise developing countries' earnings from these exports. But real progress has been very limited and in fact there have been reversals. Moreover, environmental resource considerations have not played any part in commodity agreements, with the notable exception of the International Tropical Timber Agreement.23'' 48. Commodity agreements have not been easy to negotiate, and regulation of commodity trade has been notoriously controversial and difficult. Current arrangements could be improved in two crucial respects: * Larger suras for compensatory financing to even out economic shocks - as under the IMF's Compensatory Financing Facility - would encourage producers to take a long-term view, and not to overproduce commodities where production is close to the limits of environmental sustainability during periods of market glut. * Where producers need to diversify from traditional, single-crop production patterns, more assistance could be given for diversification programmes. The second window of the Common Fund could be used for promoting resource regeneration and conservation.24/ 49. Individual governments can better use renewable resources such as forests and fisheries to ensure that exploitation rates stay within the limits of sustainable yields and that finances are available to regenerate resources and deal with all linked environmental effects. As for non-renewable reoources like minerals, governments should ensure that: * the leaseholder undertakes exploration aimed at adding 1;o proven reserves at least the amount extracted; * that the ratio of production to proven reserve remains below a pre-specified limit; * that the funds generated by royalties are used in a way that compensates for the declining income when the resource deposit is exhausted; and l-'nq 1 in ti l\Vlo 4 0 1 think it \s also of importance for the Commission to note the problem of negotiation of contracts on resource development. We have been trying for 10 years to include provisions on environment. We have beer, successful only to get from the investors a very broad description of what should be done in environmental protection. If you go into details you get problems with the lawyers and » on. That hampers then the investment. For us, of course, it is a choice of whether to loosen the grip a little bit or if you maintain that, then c course, there will be no investment in the country if an appeal could be made to the multinationals, mainly to understand that what has been done in timber should also be applied to other agreements like coffee, tin, and others. I think this would be a great help. Speaker from the floor, government agency WCBD Public Hearing Jakarta, 26 March 1985 * that the leaseholder is responsible for land restoration and other environmental control measures in the urea affected by mining. 50. Relevant international organizations such as various UN agencies, the World Bank, and regional groups could develop further their work on model contracts and guidelines incorpo ating these principleo. 2.2 Protectionism and Intenational Trade 51. The increase in protectionism in industrial countries ftif^es export growth and prevents diversification from traditional exports. The success of some Far Eastern developing countries in increasing exports of labour-intensive manufactured goods shows the development potential of such trace. However, other countries - especially low-income Asian and Latin American nations - seeking to ioiiow the Bame route have found themselver. severely handicapped by growing trade bartier6, particularly in textiles ant1 clothing. If developinq countries are to reconcile a need for rapid export growth with a need to conserve the resource base, it is imperative that they enjoy access tj industrial country markets for non traditional exports wh.re ihey enjoy a comparative advantage. In many cases, the problems of protectionism relate to manufactures; but there are cisee sugar is a good example - where industrial countries employ agricultural trade restrictions in ways that are damaging ecologically as well as economically. (See Box 3-2.) 2.3 'Pollution-intensive' Goode 52. The processing of certain raw materials - pulp and paper, oil, and aluminj. for example can have substantial environmental side effects. Industrial countries have generally A/42/42 1 Km] 1 i sli Pari«> 9 1 BOX 3-2 Sugar and Sustainable Development Thirty million poor people in the Third World depend on sugar-cane for their survival. Many developing countries have a genuine comparative advantage in production and could earn valuablo foreign exchange t-y expanding output. Some small states - Fiji. Mauritius, and several Caribbean islands -depend for their economic survival on cane sugar exports. Industrial countries have actively promoted, and protected, beet sugar production, which competes with cane and has had quite damaging effects on developing countries: High-cost, protected beet production encourages artificial sweeteners; quotas have Kept out Third World imports (except for some guaranteed imports as under the EEC's Sugar Protocol); and surpluses are dumped on world markets depressing prices. In the 1986 World Development Report. tM World Ban* estimated that industrial countries' sug. r i icies cost developing countries about $7.4 billion in H * revenues during 1963, reduced their real income by about $2.1 billion and increased price instability by about 25 per ^ent. Over and above the increased developing -iuntry poverty that results from thetie practices, the promc in of beet production in industrial countries has had adverse ecological side effects. Modern beet growing is highly capital-intensive, it depends r avily on chemical herbicides, and the crop has poorer regenerative properties than others. The same product could be grown in developing countries, as cine, more cheaply, using more labour and fewer chemical additives. been more successful than developing ones in seeing to it that export product price« reflect the costs of environmental damage and of controlling that damage. Thus in the case of exports from industrial countries, ' ,i«>se costs are paid by consumers in importing nations, including those in the Third World But in the caRe of exportB from developing countries, such costs continue to be borne entirely domestically, largely in the form of damage costs co human health, property, and ecosyeterns. iL In 1930 the Industrien of developing countries expetting to OECD members would ru>ve incurred direct pollution control costs of $'j.b billion if thfcV had teen required to meet the environmental standardb then prevailing in the United States, according to a study conducted for this Commission. "'^I If the pollution control expenditures associated with t fie materials tr.*'«. went into the final product are also counted, the costs would have mounted to $14.2 billion. The evidence also suggests that OECD imports from developing countries involve products that entail higher average environmental and resource damage costs than do overiM OECD imports. 2fe/ These hypothetical pollution control coBtG probably understate the real costs of environmental and resource damage in the exporting countries. Furthermore, these co6tB relate only to environmental pollution and net to the economic damage costo associated with resource depletion. a/4;'/ •«.! / Pan ť <>.' 54. The fact that these costs remain hidden means that developing countries are able to attract more investment to export manufactured goods than they would under a more rigorous system of global environmental control. Many Third World policymakers see this as beneficial in that it gives developing countries a comparative advantaqe in 'pollution-intensive' goods that should be exploited. They also see that passing along more of the real costs could reduce the competitive position of their country in Borne markets, and thus regard any pressure in this direction as a form of disguised protectionism from established producers. \ot it Í6 in developing countries' own long-term interests that more of the environmental and resource co6ts associated with production be reflected in prices. Such caanges must come fron* the developing countries themselves. 2.4 The Mandates of Multilateral Trade Forums 55. Although a number of UNCTAD research projects have considered the links between trade and environment, these issues have not been taken up systematically by intergovernmental organizations. The mandates of these organizations - principally GATT and UNCTAD - should include sustainable development. Their activities should reflect concern with the impacts of trading patterns on the environment and the need for more effective instruments to integrate «.nvironment and development concerns into international trading arrangements. 56. International organi-ations dealing with trade will find it easier to reorientate their activities if each nation designates a lead agency with a broad mandate to assess the effects of international trade on sustaining the environmental and resource base of economic growth. This agency could be responsible for raising sustainabi1 i ty issues in the work of UNCTAD, GATT, OECD, CMEA, and other relevant organizations. 3. Ensuring Hesponsibi1ity in Transnational Investment 57. Overseas investment activity by companies in market economies has grown substantially over the past 40 years. (See Box 3-3.) Foreign affiliates now account for 40 per cent of sales, 33 per cent of net assets, and 56 per cent of net earnings for 380 of the largest industrial corporations in the market economies, according to data compiled by che UN Centre for Transnational Corporations.2'^ A high proportion of transnational inver.tment is within industrial market economies, another aspect of the growing integration of these economies. 58. Transnationals play *n important role as ownvis, as partners in Joint ventures, and ae suppliers of techr.^logy in the mining -nd manufacturing sectors in many developing countries, especially in such environmentally sensitive areas ae letroleum. chemicals, metals, paper, and automobiles. They also dominate world trade in many primary commodities. 59. In recent years, many developing countries have begun to take a more positive view of the role TNC investment can play in h/ M/M I Kn■ Source: UN Centre on Transnational Corporations. Environmental Aspects of the Accivitiee of Transnational Corporations: A Survey (Nav York: UN. 1985). their development process. This has been somewhat influenced by these countries' needs for foreign exchange and their awareness of the ro e that foreign investment might play in providing it. Effective cooperation with TNCs is possible in creating equal conditions for all parties. This can be attained by a strict observance of the principle of sovereignty of the host country For their part, many corporations have recognized the need to share managerial skills and technological know how with hot' country nationals and to pursue profit-seeking objectives within a framework of long-term suEtainable development. 60. But mutual suspicions still exist, usually because of an asymmetry in bargaining power between large corporations and small, poor, developing countries. Negotiations are often made one sided by a developing country1k lack of information, technical unpreparedness, and political and institutional weaknesses. Suspicions and disagreements remain, particularly concerning the introduction of new technologies, the development of n.ttural resources, and the use of the environment. It multinationals are to play a larger role in development, these conflicts and suspicions must be reduced. 61. Strengthening the bargaining posture and response of developing countries vis á vis transnational is therefore critical. Where nations lack indigenous capacity to deal with large TNCs. regional and other international institutions should assist. As indicated earlier, they could expand existing help in the form of model agreements with t ranená t i ona 1 s for different situations, such as lease agreements for the exploitation of a A/4.'/4.'7 Knql ich ľ.nie '>/4.'7 Knijl l.':h 4/ IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 1986. 5/ UN. World Economic Survey 1986 (New York: 19B6 ) . 6/ World Bank. op. cit. 7/ Ibid. 8/ UN. General Assembly. 'The Critical Economic Situation in Africa: Report of the Secretary General', A/S-13/z. New York. 20 May 1986. 9/ Organization of African Unity Assembly of Heads of State of Government. Africa's Priority Programme of Action 1986-1991 (Addis Ababa: 1985). 10/ UN General Assembly. United Nations Programme of Action for African Economic Recovery and Development (New York: 1986). 11/ World Bank. op. cit. 12/ Bank of international Settlements. International Banking and Financial Markets Developments. (Basle: 1986). 13/ Inter-American Development Bank, Economic and Social Progress i,p Latin America (Washington. DC: 1986). 14/ Unpublished data from UN Economic Commission on Latin America. 15/ Ibid. 16/ See. for example. UN. 'Programme of Action on a New Interoational Economic Order', General Assembly Resolution 3202 (S-Vl). 1 May 1974. 17/ See GATT. International Trade 1985-86 (Geneva: 1986). 18/ UNCTAD, Handbook of International Trade and Development Statistics, 1977 and 1985 Supplements (New York: UN. 1977 and 19B5). 19/ Ibid. 20/ UNCTAD. Statis leal Pocketbook (New York: UN. 19Ô4). 21/ Ibid. 22/ UNCTAD. Trade and Development Report (New York: UN. 1986). 23/ Alister Maclntyre. UNCTAD. statement at WCED Public Hearings, Oslo. 1985. A/42/427 Fnq] iíih Pu n, „„; n. „. , -. and _. pp. 203-11; GM. Higgins et al Population Suppor t ing Capaci t ies World (Rome: FAo.~19B2)? D.J " Growth and Human Ca r r_y_xn____________ 690 (Washington, D.C.: World Dank, • Potential ,°X Lands _i •;_ the Developing Mal.-« r (ed.). Hapid Population Capa ci ty. Staff Working Papers N n«"w 1985). o. just not available. Health, housing conditions, and the quality of education and public services all deteriorate; unemployment, urban drift, and social unrest increase. 13. Industrial countries seriously concerned with high population growth rates in other parts of the world have obligations beyond simply supplying aid packages of family planning hardware. Economic development, through its indirect impact on social and cultural factors, lowers fertility rates. International policies that interfere with economic development thus interfere with a developing nation's ability to manage its population growth. A concern for population growth anst therefore be a par* of a broader concern for a more r«. pid rate of economic and social development in the developing countries. 14. In the final analysis, >'v-' have more children trun they and national ecosystems can support . 1 I THE POPULATION PERSPECTIVE 1 Growth in Number b lb. Population growth accelerated in the middle of the 18th century with the advent of the Industrial Revolution and associated improvements in agriculture, not just in the regions that are more developed b t elsewhere as well. The recent phase of acceleration 6tarted around 19SO with the Bharp reduction in mortality rates in the developing countries A/42/427 English paqe 104 Since 1970 it has been fashionable to draw a distinction between population and environment as two crisis areas, but often times we forget that population is in fact a very integral part of the environment and therefore when we are addressing ourselves to population we are looking at not only the physical, biological, and chemical environments, we are also looking at the socio-cultural or socio-economic environment in which these development programmes are being set. And population makes much more sense if you are talking of population within a context. Dr. j.o. Oucho Population Studies and Research Institute WCED Public Hearing Nairobi, 23 Sept 1986 16. Between 1950 and 1985, world population grew at an annual rate of 1.9 per cent, compared with 0.8 per cent in the half-century preceding 1950.2/ Population growth is now concentrated in the developing regions of Asia, Africa, and Latin America, which accounted for 85 per cent of the increase of global population since 1950. (See Table 4-1.) 17. The processes of population growth are changing in most developing countries as birth and death rates fall. In the early 1950s, practically all developing countries had birth rates over 40 and death rates over 20, the major exception being the low death rates in Latin America. (These rates refer to the annual number of births and deaths per 1,000 population.) Today the situation is quite different: * Thirty-two per cent of the people in the Third World live in countries - euch as China and the Republic of Korea -with birth rates below 25 and death rates below 10. * Forty-one per cent are in countries where birth rates have fallen, but not as much as death rates, and their populations are growing at around 2 per cent - doubling, in other words, every 34 years. Such countries include Brazil, India, Indonesia, and Mexico. * The remaining 27 per cent live in countries, such as Algeria, Bangladesh. Iran, ana Nigeria, where death rates have fallen slightly but birth rates remain high. Overall population growth is in the range of 2.5 to 3 per cent (doubling every 28 to 23 years), with even higher growth rates in some countries, such as Kenya.3/ 18. In the industrial world, fertility rates have declined and the population is not growing rapidly. In fact, it has stabilized in many countries. Still, the population in North America, Europe, the USSR, and Oceania is expected to increase by 230 million by the year 2025. which is as many people ae live in the United States today. /... í<:n TABLE 4 1 World Population 1950 85: Key Fact6 Size and Rates 1950 1960 1970 1980 1985 Total Population: World More developed regione Less developed regione Annual Growth»: World More developed regions Less developed regions Urban Population: World More developed legions Less developed regionu (bill ions) 2 5 3 0 J .7 4 4 4 S 0 83 0 94 1 . Ob 1 14 1 17 1 66 2 07 2 . 65 3 31 3 66 (per cent) 1 8 2 0 1 .9 1.7 1 3 1 0 0.8 0. 6 2 1 2 5 2.3 2.0 (per cent) 29 34 37 40 41 M 67 67 70 72 17 22 25 29 31 "Data are for growth over previous decade or. for last column, over previous five years. Source: Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. World Population Prospects: KstimateB and Projections as Assessed in 1984 (New York: UN. 1986 j. induet rial In developing 19H0, 39 per cent of 19. Th<- acceleration of population growth in the Third World and the decline in fertility levels in induetrial countries are changing age distribution rat terns radically countries, the young predominate. in developing country populations were younger than 15; the figure for industrialized countries was only 23 per cent.4/ Yet in these countries, the proportion oř the eldetly is growing. Those 6'j or older accounted for 11 per "ent of the in developing countries, they represented popu 1 a t i on in 1980, 5/ in developing countries, they represented only 4 per cent.^ Thus in the industrial world, relatively lewer people of working age will bear the burden of supporting relatively larger numbers of older people. 20. A changing age structure helps to set patterns oř future population growth. The laige number of young people in developing countries means large numbers of future parents, so that *»vt-n if each person produces fewer children, the total number of births will continue to increase. PopuUiion growth can continue to grow for some decades after fertility rates decline to the 'replacement level' of slightly over two children on average per couple. Thus in many nations, high population growth r.iten cvf the next tew generations a i e assured. h A.' I: : KiK|l l.h ľ.|l|f im. 21. Population projections indicate an increase in global population from 4.8 billion in 1985 to 6.1 billion by 2000. and to 8.2 billion by 2025. (See Table «2.) More than 90 pet cent of this increase is expected in developing regione. Large differences exist among countries in these areas, and the momentum of population growth is higher in Africa than in uatin America or Asia. In some developing countries, such as China, population growth rates are already well below 2 per cent and are expected to fall below 1 per cent by the beginning of the next century . **l 22. Reflecting the 'momentum' of population growth, long term UN projections ehow that at the global le/el: * if replacement.-level fertility is reached in 2010, global population will stabilize at 7.7 billion by 2060; * if this rate is reached in 2C 5. population will stabilize at 10.2 billion by -095; * if. however, the rate is reached only in 2065. global population in 2100 would be 14.2 billion.7/ 23. These projections show that the world has real choices. Policieo to bring down fertility rates could make a difference of billions to the global population next century. The greater part of the differences between the three variants is accounted for by South Asia. Africa, and Latin America. Hence much depends on the effectiveness of population policies in these regione. 2. Changes in Mobility 24. The number of people in Europe, Japan, North Aaerica, and the Soviet Union quintupled between 1750 and 1950. and these regions' share in world population increased sharply over thin period.0/ By the latter part of * he 19th century, there was growing concern about population ^resBures in Europe. Migration to North America, Australia, and New Zealand helped to some extent. At its peak between 18B1 and 1910. permanent emigration absorbed nearly 20 per rent of the increase in population i n Europe.9/ 25. Today, however, migration i b not a major (actor in determining population d i n t r i but i on among countries. Between 1970 and 1980 permanent emigration as a percentage of population increase fell to 4 per cent in Europe and was only 2.5 per cent in Latin America. The corresponding percent ager. in Asia and Africa were very much lower.10/ Thua the option of emigration to new lands has not been and will not be a significant element in relieving demographic pressures in developing countries in effect, this reduces the time available to bring population into balance with resources. 26. Within countries, populations are more mobile. Improved communications have enabled laige movements of people, h omet i men as a natural response to the growth of economic opportunities in different places. Som« governments have actively encouraged migration from densely to parsely nettled are. Kii'll i »ti ľ,i>).' 10 7 TABLE 4-2 Current and Projected Population Size and Growth Rates" Region Population 1985 2000 2025» Annual Growth Rate 1950 1985 2000 to to to 1985 2000 2025 World Africa Latin America Asia North America Europe USSR O >ania 4.8 (bixlion) 6.1 8.2 0.Ď6 0.87 1.62 0. 2. 0, 0, 41 82 26 49 0.28 0. 3 , 0, 0, 0. 55 55 30 51 31 0, 4, 0. 0. 0. 78 54 35 52 37 0.02 0.03 0.04 (per cent.) 1.9 1.6. 1.2 2. 2 2 1, 0, 1. 1. 3 2 1 0 0 0 1 2 1, 1 0 0 0 0 * Medium-variant projections. Source: Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. HorJd Population Prospects; Estimates and Projections as Assessed in 1984 (New York: UN, 1986). A more recent phenomenon is the flight of from areac of environmental degradation. 'ecological refugees' 27. Much of the movement is from countryside to city. (See Chapter 9.) In 1985. some 40 per cent of the world's population lived in cities; the magnitude of the urban drift can be seen in the fact that since 1950. the increase in urban population has been larger than the increase in rural population both in percentage and in absolute terme. This shift is most striking in developing countries, where the number of city-dwellers quadrupled during thii period.11'' 3. Improved Health and Education 28. Improvements in the health and education of all, but especially of women and in conjunction with other social changes that ťa iae the status of women, can have a profound affect in bringing down population growth rates. In an initial period, however, better health care means that more babies live to reproduce and that women reproduce over longer time spans. A/42/427 Hnqlish Paqe 108 TABLE 4-3 Health Indicators Life Expectancy Infant Mortality at Birth ______Rates_____ Region 1950-55 1980-85 1960-65 1980-85 (deaths per 1,000 (years) live births) World 49.9 64.6 117 81 Africa 37.5 49.7 157 114 Asia 41.2 57.9 133 87 south America 52.3 64.0 101 64 North America 64.4 71.1 43 27 Europe 65.3 73.2 37 16 USSR 61.7 70.9 32 25 Oceania 61.0 67.6 55 39 Source: WCED, based on data in World Resources Institute/International Institute for Environment and Development, World Resources 1986 (New York: Basic Books, 1986). 29. The 'health status1 of a society is a complex concept that cannot be measured easily. Two widely available indicators that reflect at least some aspects of a given society's health are life expectancy and infant mortality rates. (See Table 4-3.) These statistics suggest that health has improved virtually everywhere; and. at least with regard to these two indicators, the gap between industrial and developing regions has narrowed. 30. Many factors can increase life expectancy and reduce mortality rates; two are worth emphasizing. First, although generally speaking national wealth buys national health, some relatively poor nations and areas, such as China, Sri Lanka, and the Indian state of Kerala, have achieved remarkable success in lowering infant mortality and improving health through increases in education, especially of women; the establishment of primary health clinics; and other health care programmes.12' Second, the principal reductions in mortality rates in the industrial world caae about before the advent of modern drugs; they were due to improved nutrition, housing, and hygiene. The recent gains in developing countries have also been largely due to public health programmes, particularly for the control of communicable diseases. 31. Education is another key dimension of 'population quality'. The past few decades have seen a great expansion of educational facilities in virtually all countries. In terms of /... l-'UM I ir.ti ľ.n|'- 104 school enrolment, literacy rates, the growth in technical education, and the development of scientific skills, much progress has been achieved. (See Table 4-4.) 1II. A POLICY FRAMEWORK 32. Excessive population growth diffuses the fruits of development over increasing numbers instead of improving living standards in many developing countries: a reduction of current growth rates is ar imperative for sustainable development. The critical isBueß are the balance between population size and available resources and the rate oi population growth in relation to the capacity of the economy to provide for the basic needs of the population, not iuot today DUt foe generations. Such a long-term view i« necessary because attitudes to fertility rarely change rapidly and because, even after fertility starts declining, past increases in population impart a momentum of growth as people reach child-bearing age. However a nation proceeds towards the goals of sustainable development and lower fertility levels, the two are intimately linked and mutually reinforcing. 33. Measures to influence population size cannot be effective in isolation from other environment/development isuues. The number, density, movement, and growth rate of a population cannot be influenced in the short run if these efforts are being overwhelmed by adverse patterns of development in other areas. Population policies must have a broader I 1 ■' system. Some governments have successfully combined population programme: w-th health, education, and rural development projects, «ai.d implemented them as part f major socio-economic programmes in villages or regions. This integration increases motivation, improves access, and raises the effectiveness of investments in family planning. 42. Only about 1.5 per cent of official development aid now goes for population assistance.13/ Regrettably, some donor countries tiAve cut back on their assistance for multilateral population programmes and so weakened them; thie munt be reversed. 43. Zimbabwe ie one nation thar has successfully integrated its family planning efforts not only with its rural health services but also with efforts to improve women's abilities to organize group activities and earn money 'hrough their own labour. The government's initial efforts w?r_ aimed less at limiting population growth than at assisting women to space births in the interests of mother and child health and at helping infertile women to bear children. But gradually families have begun to use the contraceptives made available for child spacing as a way to limit fertility. Zimbabwe now leads sub-Saharan Africa in the up« of modern contraceptive methods.1*/ 2. Managing Distribution and Mobility 44. Population distribution across a country's different regions is influenced by the geographical spread of economic activity and opportunity. Most countries are committed in theory to balancing regional development, but are rarely able to do thiB in practice. Governments able to spread employment opportunities throughout their nations and especially through their countrysides will thus limit the rapid and often uncontrolled growth of one or two cities. China's effort to support vi 1 läge-level inď tries in the countryside is perhaps the most a»»b*tiou8 of this bort of national programme. 45. Migration from countryside to city is not in itself a bad thing; it is part of the process of economic development and diversification. The issue is not so much the overall rural urban shift but the distribution cf urban growth betveen large metropolitan cities and Bmaller urban settlements. (See Chapter 9 . ) 46. A commitment to rural development implies more attention to realizing the development potential of all regions, particularly those that are ecologically disadvantaged (See Chapter 5.) This would help reduce migration from these areas due to lack of opportunities. But governments should avoid going too far in the opposite direction, encouraging people to cove into sparsely populated areas such as tropical moist forests, where the land may not be able to provide sustainable livelihoods. A/42/427 English Page 113 Demographic phenomena constitute the heart of the African Development probleroatique. They are the data that lead most analysts to project a continuing and deepening crisis in Africa. There is no doubt of the imperative and urgent need for a far reaching population policy to be adopted and vigorously implemented by African governments. One issue of relevance that requires further research is the use of the tax system as a means for controlling population growth and discouraging rural-urban migration. To slow down population growth, should families without children be given a tax incentive or tax break? Should a tax penalty be imposed for each child after a fixed number of children, considering that the tax system has not solved the population migration problem? Adebayo Adedeji Executive Director, Economic Commission for Africa WCED Public Hearing Harare. 18 Sept 1986 3. From Liability to Asset 47. When a population exceeds the carrying capacity of the available resources, it can become a liability in efforts to improve people's welfare. But talking of population just as numbers glosses over an important point: People are also a creative resource, and this creativity is an asset societies must tap. To nurture and enhance that asset, people's physical well-being must be improved through better nutrition, health care, and so on. And education must be provided to help them become more capable and creative, skilful, productive, and better able to deal with day-to-day problems. All this has to be achieved through access to and participation in the processes of sustainable development. 3.1 Improving Health 48. Good health is the foundation of human welfare and productivity. Hence a broad-based health policy is essential for sustainable development. In the developing world, the critical problems of ill health are closely related to environmental conditions and development problems. 49. Malaria is the most important parasitic disease in the tropics, and its prevalence is closely related to wastewater disposal and drainage. Large dams and irrigation systems have led to sharp increases in the incidence of schistosomiasis (snail fever) in many areas. Inadequacies in water supply and sanitation are direct causes of other widespread and debilitating diseases such as diarrhoeas and various worm infestations. 50. Though much has been achieved in recent years, 1.7 billion people lack access to clean water, and 1.2 billion to adequate sanitation.15/ Many diseases can be controlled not just /... A/42/427 English Page 114 We in Asia, I feel, want to have an equilibrium between the spiritual and material life. I noticed that you have tried to separate religion from the technological side of life. Is that not exactly, the mistake in the West in developing technology, without ethics, without religion? If that is the case, and we have the chance to develop a new direction, should we not advise the group on technology to pursue a different kind of technology which has as its base not only the rationality, but also the spiritual aspect? Is this a dream or is this something we cannot avoid? Speaker from the floor WCED Public Hearing Jakarta, 26 March 1985 through therapeutic interventions but also through improvements in rural water Bupply, sanitation, and health education. In this sense, they really require a developmental solution. In the developing world, the number of water taps nearby is a better indication of the health of a community than is the number of hospital beds. 51. Other examples of links between development, environmental conditions, and health include air pollution and the respiratory illnesses it brings, the impact of housing conditions on the spread of tuberculosis, the effects of carcinogens and toxic substances, and the exposure to hazards in the workplace and elsewhere. 52. Many health problems arise from the nutritional deficiencies that occur in virtually all developing countries, but most acutely in low-income areas. Most malnutrition is related to a shortage of calories or protein or both, but some diets also lack specific elements and compounds, such as iron and iodine. Health will be greatly improved in low-income areas by policies that lead to the production of more of the cheap foods the poor traditionally eat - coarse grains and root crops. 53. These health, nutrition, environment, and development links imply that health policy cannot be conceived of purely in terms of curative or preventive medicine, or even in terms of greater attention to public health. Integrated approaches are needed that reflect key health objectives in areas such as food production; water supply and sanitation; industrial policy, particularly with regard to safety and pollution; and the planning of human settlements. Beyond this, it is necessary to identify vulnerable groups and their health risks and to ensure that the socio-economic factors that underlie these risks are taken into account in other areas of development policy. 54. Hence. WHO'S 'Health for All' strategy should be broadened far beyond the provision of medical workers and clinics, to cover health-related interventions in all development activities.lfi/ Moreover, this broader approach must be reflected in /... A/42/427 English Page 115 institutional arrangemente to coordinate all such activities effectively. 55. Within the narrower area of health care, providing primary health care facilities and making sure that everyone haß the opportunity to use them are appropriate starting points. Maternal and child health care are also particularly important. The critical elements here are relatively inexpensive and can have a profound impact on health and well-being. An organized system of trained birth attendants, protection against tetanus and other childbirth infections, and supplemental feeding can dramatically reduce maternal mortality. Similarly, low-cost programmes to assure immunization, teach and supply oral dehydration therapy against diarrhoeas, and encourage breast-feeding (which in turn can reduce fertility) can increase child survival rates dramatically. 56. Health care must be supplemented by effective health education. Some parts of the Third World may soon face growing numbers of the illnesses associated with life-styles in industrial nations - cancer and heart disease especially. Few developing nations can afford the expensive treatment required for the latter diseases, and should begin efforts now to educate their citizens on the dangers of smoking and of high-fat diets. 57. A rapid spread of acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) in both, developed and developing nations could drastically alter all countries' health priorities. AIDS is threatening to kill millions of people and disrupt the economies of many countries. Governments should overcome any lingering shyness and rapidly educate their people about this syndrome and about the ways in which it is spread, international cooperation on research and the handling of the disease is essential. 58. Another major health problem with international ramifications is the increase in drug addiction. It is a problem closely linked to organized crime in the production of drugs, in large-scale international traffic in these drugs, and in the networks for distribution. It distorts the economy in many poor producing areas and destroys people the world over. International cooperation is essential in tackling this scourge. Some countries have to deploy considerable financial resources to halt the production and traffic in narcotics and to promote crop diversification and rehabilitation schemes in the producing areas, which are generally impoverished. To sustain their efforts, greater international assistance is essential 59. Most medical research focuses on pharmaceuticals, vaccines, and other technological interventions for disease management. Much of this research is directed at the diseases of industrialized countries, as their treatment accounts for a substantial part of the sales of pharmaceutical companies. More research is urgently needed on the environmentally related tropical diseases that are the major health problem in the Third World. This research should focus not merely on new medicines, but also on public health measures to control these diseases. Existing arrangements for international collaboration on tropical disease research should be greatly strengthened. /... A/42/427 English Page 116 3.2 Broadening Education fio Human resource development demands knowledge and skills to heip peZS improve their economic performance Sustainable development requires changes in values and attitudes towards environment and development - indeed, towards society and work at hSme «ine, and in factories. The world's religions could help provide direction and motivation in forming new values that wouľdPstTess individual and joint responsibility towards the environment and towards nurturing harmony between humanity and environment. 61 Education should also be geared towards making people more capable of dealing with problems of overcrowding ana excessive population densities, and better able to improve what could be called 'social carrying capacities'. This is essential to prevent ruptures in the social fabric, and schooling should enhance the levels of tolerance and empathy required for living in a crowded world. Improved health, lower fertility, and better nutrition will depend on greater literacy and social and civic responsibility. Education can induce all these, and can enhance a society's ability to overcome poverty, increase incomes, improve health and nutrition, and reduce family size. 62. The investment in education and the growth in school enrolment during the past few decades are signs of progress. Access to education is increasing and will continue to do so. Today almost all the world's boys are getting some form of primary education. In Asia and Africa, however, enrolment rates for girls are much lower than for boys at all levels. A large gap also exists between developed and developing countries in enrolment rates beyond primary schools, as Table 4-4 indicated. 63. UN projections of enrolment rates for the year 2000 suggest a continuation of these trends. Thus despite the growth in primary education, illiteracy will continue to rise in terms of sheer numbers: there will be more than 900 million people unable to read and write at the end of the century. By then, girls' enrolment rates are still expected to be below the current rates for boys in Asia. As for secondary education, developing countries are not expected to attain even the I960 industrial country levels by the year 2000.17/ 64. Sustainable development requires that these trends be corrected. The main task of education policy must be to make literacy universal and to close the gaps between male and female enrolment rates. Realizing these goals would improve individual productivity and earnings, as well as personal attitudes to health, nutrition, and child-bearing. It can also instill a greater awareness of everyday environmental factors. Facilities for education beyond primary school must be expanded to improve skills necessary for pursuing sustainable development. Í4^.ni*ľJj,^ pr?blem confronting many countries is the KSlIffi: h MB5loy"!ttt and the unre8t tnat it leads to. «irSinití" °í been Unable t0 provide the «kills needed for appropriate employment. This is evident in the large numbers of /... A/42/427 English Page 117 Education and communication are vitally important in order to impress each individual of his or her responsibility regarding the healthy future of the earth. The best way for students to recognize that their action can make a difference is to have projects organized by the school or community on which the students can work. Once convinced that they can help, people tend to change both their attitude and their behaviour. New attitudes towards the environment will be reflected in decisions at home and in corporate boardrooms around the world. Bernice Goldsmith Student, North Toronto Collegiate WCED Public Hearing Ottawa, 26-27 May 1986 unemployed people who have been trained for white-collar employment in swelling urban populations. Education and training should also be directed towards the acquisition of practical and vocational skills, and particularly towards making people more self-reliant. All this should be supported by efforts to nurture the informal sector and the participation of community organizations. 66. Providing facilities is only the beginning. Education must be improved in quality and in relevance to local conditions. In many areas, it should be integrated with children's participation in farm work, a process requiring flexibility in the school system. It should impart knowledge relevant for the proper management of local resources. Rural schools must teach about local soils, water, and the conservation of both, about deforestation and how the community and the individual can reverse it. Teachers must be trained and the curriculum developed so that students learn about the agricultural balance sheet of an area. 67. Most people base their understanding of environmental processes and development on traditional beliefs or on information provided by a conventional education. Many thus remain ignorant about ways in which they could improve traditional production practices and better protect the natural resource base. Education should therefore provide comprehensive knowledge, encompassing and cutting across the social and natural sciences and the humanities, thus providing insights on the interaction between natural and human resources, between development and environment. 68. Environmental education should be included in and should run throughout the other disciplines of the formal education currieuluu at all levels - to foster a sense of responsibility for the state of the environment and to teach students how to monitor, protect, and improve it. These objectives cannot be achieved without the involvement of students in the movement for a better environment, through such things as nature clubs and /-•■ A/42/427 English Page 118 I am here as the son of a small nation, the Krenak Indian Nation. We live in the valley of the Rio Doce. which is the frontier of Espirito Santo with the State of Minas Gerais. We are a micro-country - a micro-nation. When the government took our land in the valley of Rio Doce, they wanted to give us another place somewhere else. But the State, the government will never understand that we do not have another place to go. The only possible place for the Krenak people to live and to re-establish our existence, to speak to our Gods, to speak to our nature, to weave our lives is where our God created us. It is useless for the government to put us in a very beautiful place, in a very good place with a lot of hunting and a lot of fish. The Krenak people, we continue dying and we die insisting that there is only one place for us to live. My heart does not become happy to see humanity's incapacity. I have no pleasure at all to come here and make these statements. We can no longer see the planet that we live upon as if it were a chess-board where people just move things around. We cannot consider the planet as something isolated from the cosmic. We are not idiots to believe that there is possibility of life for us outside of where the origin of our life is. Respect our place of living, do not degrade our living condition, respect this life. We have no arms to cause pressure, the only thing we have is the right to cry for our dignity and the need to live in our land. Ailton Krenak Coordinator of Indian Nations Union WCED Public Hearing Sao Paulo. 28-29 Oct 1985 special interest groups. Adult education, on-the-job training, television, and other less formal methods muBt be used to reach out to as wide a group of individuals as possible, as environmental issues and knowledge systems now change radically in the space of a lifetime. 69. A critical point of intervention is during teacher training. The attitudes of teacherß will be key in increasing understanding of the environment and its. links with development. To enhance the awareness and capabilities of teachers in this area, multilateral and bilateral agencies must provide support for the relevant curriculum development in teacher training institutions, for the preparation of teaching aids, and for other similar activities. Global awareness could be fostered by encouraging contacts among teachers from different countries, for instance in specialized centres set up for this purpose. 3.3 Empowering Vulnerable Groups 70. The processes of development generally lead to the gradual integration of local communities into a larger social and /... A/42/427 English Paqe 119 economic framework. But some communities - so-called indigenous or tribal peoples - remain isolated because of such factors as physical barriers to communication or marked differences in social and cultural practices. Such groups are found in North America, in Australia, in the Amazon Basin, in Central America, in the forests and hills of Asia, in the deserts of North Africa, and elsewhere. 71. The isolation of many such people has meant the preservation of a traditional way of life in close harmony with the natural environment. Their very survival has depended on their ecological awareness and adaptation. But their isolation has also meant that few of them have shared in national economic and social development; this may be reflected in their poor health, nutrition, and education. 72. With the gradual advance of organized development into remote regions, these groups are becoming less isolated. Many live in areas rich in valuable natural resources that planners and 'developers1 want to exploit, and this exploitation disrupts the local environment so as to endanger traditional ways of life. The legal and institutional changes that accompany organized development add to such pressures. 73. Growing interaction with the larger world is increasing the vulnerability of these groups, since they are often left out of the processes of economic development. Social discrimination, cultural barriers, and the exclusion of these people from national political processes makes these groups vulnerable and subject to exploitation. Many groups become dispossessed and marginalized, and their traditional practices disappear. They become the victims of what could be described as cultural extinction. 74. These communities are the repositories of vast accumulations of traditional knowledge and experience that links humanity with its ancient origins. Their disappearance is a loss for the larger society, which could learn a great deal from their traditional skills in sustainably managing very complex ecological systems. It is a terrible irony that as formal development reaches more deeply into rain forests, deserts, and other isolated environments, it tends to destroy the only cultures that have proved able to thrive in these environments. 75. The starting point for a just and humane policy for such groups is the recognition and protection of their traditional rights to land and the other resources that sustain their way of life - rights they may define in terms that do not fit into standard legal systems. These groups' own institutions to regulate rights and obligations are crucial for maintaining the harmony with nature and the environmental awareness characteristic of the traditional way of life. Hence the recognition of traditional rights must go hand in hand with measures to protect the local institutions that enforce responsibility in resource use. And this recognition must also give local communities a decisive voice in the decisions about resource use in their area. /... A/42/427 English Page 120 76. Protection of traditional rights should be accompanied by positive measures to enhance the well-being of the community in ways appropriate to the group's life-style. For example, earnings from traditional activities can be increased through the introduction of marketing arrangements that ensure a fair price for produce, but also through steps to conserve and enhance the resource base and increase resource productivity. 77. Those promoting policies that have an impact on the lives of an isolated, traditional people must tread a fine line between keeping them in artificial, perhaps unwanted isolation and wantonly destroying their life-styles. Hence broader measures of human resource development are essential. Health facilities must be provided to supplement and improve traditional practices; nutritional deficiencies have to be corrected, and educational institutions established. These steps should precede new projects that open up an area to economic development. Special efforts should also be made to ensure that the local community can derive the full benefit of such projects, particularly through jobs. 78. In terms of sheer numbers, these isolated, vulnerable groups are small. But their marginalization is a symptom of a style of development that tends to neglect both human and environmental considerations. Hence a more careful and sensitive consideration of their interests is a touchstone of a sustainable development policy. Footnotes 1/ Department of International Economic and Social Affaire (DIESA). World Population Prospects; Estimates and Pro lections as Assessed in 1984 (New York: United Nations, 1986). 2/ Ibid. 3/ Based on data from UNCTAD, Handbook of International Trade and Development Statistics 1985 Supplement (New York: 1985). 4/ World Bank, World Development Report 1984 (New York: Oxford University Press. 1984). 5/ Ibid. 6/ DIESA, op. cit. 7/ UN, Population Bulletin of the United Nations. No. 14. 1982 (New York: 1983). /... A/42/427 English Page 121 8/ C. Clark. Population Growth and Land Use (New York: St. Martin's Press. 1957). 9/ World Bank, op. cit. 10/ Ibid. 11/ DIESA. op. cit. 12/ WHO. Intersectoral Linkages and Health Development. Case Studies in India (Kerala State). Jamica. Norway. Sri Lanka and Thailand (Geneva: 1984). 13/ World Bank, op. cit. 14/ L. Timberlake. Only One Earth: Living for the Future (London: BBC/Earthscan. 1987). 15/ UNEP. The State of the Environment: Environment and Health (Nairobi: 1986). 16/ WHO, Global Strategy for Health for All by the Year 2000 (Geneva: 1981). 17/ UNESCO. A Summary Statistical Review of Education in the World. 1960-82 (Paris: 1984). /... A/42/427 English Page 122 CHAPTER 5 FOOD SECURITY: SUSTAINING THE POTENTIAL 1. The world produces more food per head of population today than ever before in human history. In 1985, it produced nearly 500 kilogrammes per head of cereals and root crops, the primary sources of food.i/ Yet amid this abundance, more than 730 million people did not eat enough to lead fully productive working lives.2/ There are places where too little is grown; there are places where large numbers cannot afford to buy food. And there are broad areas of the Earth, in both industrial and developing nations, where increases in food production are undermining the base for future production. 2. The agricultural resources and the technology needed to feed growing populations are available. Much has been achieved over the past few decades. Agriculture does not lack resources; it lacks policies to ensure that the food is produced where it is needed and in a manner that sustains the livelihoods of the rural poor. We can meet this challenge by building on our achievements and devising new strategies for sustaining food and livelihood security. I. ACHIEVEMENTS 3. Between 1950 and 1985, cereal production outstripped population growth, increasing from around 700 million tons to over 1,800 million tons, an annual growth rate of around 2.7 per cent.3/ This increase helped to meet escalating demands for cereals caused by population growth and rising incomes in developing countries and by growing needs for animal feed in developed countries. Yet regional differences in performance have been large. (See Table 5-1.) 4. As production has increased sharply in some regions and demand in others, the pattern of world trade in foods, especially cereals, has changed radically. North America exported barely 5 million tons of foodgrains yearly before the Second World War; it exported nearly 120 million tons during the 1980s. Europe's grain deficit is very much lower now. and the bulk of North American exports are to the USSR, Asia, and Africa. Three countries - China, Japan, and the USSR - took half the world exports in the early 1980s; much of the rest went to relatively wealthy developing countries, such as Middle Eastern oil exporters. Several poor agricultural countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, have become net importers of foodgrains. Still, although one-fourth of sub-Saharan Africa's population relied on imported grains in 1984. that region's imports have /... A/42/427 English Page 123 TMU 1-1 tv» Daealaa •f Mclvaltaral Davalapaaat Pac Capita Pat Capita Pac Hactata r*«4 Ptaductlaa. Otaaa Ccappaa Kf Pactllltac «a« (laaai mi-44 > 100) (Kactarai) («*•> l»«l-«4 1*11-04 1*44 1»*4 1*44 1114 Mařit 100 111 0.44 0.11 lt.1 l».l ■actk Matica 10« 111 l.os o.to 47.1 11.1 Matties Bacapa 100 111 0.11 0.11 114.4 114.» «tittea («iota aa4 USU 100 111 0.14 0.T1 »0.4 111.1 M tie» 100 •• 0.T4 O.lt 1.4 1.7 Mu bit* 100 107 0.11 0.1» «.* »1.« Pat Bait*« 100 11« o.io o.io 4.4 41.« Latla tatilt« loo 101 0.4* 0.4» 11.« 11.4 CTI'i *t »ala«" 100 IS* 0.17 0.10 11.1 170.) • M no fCaaplaa that lacludaa ttaat Mia plaa Im t . Libra aaa) *«4aa •• «a PM tcmpla* t kat ««vata «•nth aa4 ••uta-Baat Mia axcluaUaf tka caatrally plaMa« aeaaaalaa at Mia. •••M PM finplB« at Caatrallr Plaaaat Cceaaalaa *t •ala wMea «avaca Calaa. Xaasiiekaa, Hactk Kacaa. Maaaalia aa4 Vlatua. accounted for less than 10 per cent of world grain trade thus far in the 19808.4/ 5. Other foods besides grains are changing the patterns of world food demand and production. Demand for milk and meat is growing as incomes rise in societies that prefer animal protein, and much agricultural development in the industrialized nations has been devoted to meeting these demands. In Europe, meat production more than tripled between 1950 and 1984, and milk production nearly doubled.5/ Meat production for exports increased sharply, particularly in the rangelands of Latin America and Africa. World meat exports have risen from around 2 million tons in 1950-52 to over 11 million tons in 1984.fi/ 6. To produce this milk and meat required in 1984 about 1.4 billion cattle and .buffaloes. 1.6 billion sheep and goats, 800 million pigs, and a great deal of poultry - all of which weigh more than the people on the planet.7/ Most of these animals graze or browse or are fed local plants collected for them. However, rising demands for livestock feedgrains led to sharp increases in the production of cereals such as corn, which accounted for nearly two-thirds of the total increase in grain production in North America and Europe between 1950 and 1985. /... A/42/427 English Page 124 7. This unprecedented growth in food production has been achieved partly by an extension of the production base: larger cropped areas, more livestock, more fishing vessels, and so on. But most of it is due to a phenomenal rise in productivity. Population increases have meant a decline in the area of cropped land in most of the world in per capita terms. And as the availability of arable land has declined, planners and farmers have focused on increasing productivity. In the past 35 years this has been achieved by: * using new seed varieties designed to maximize yields, facilitate multiple cropping, and resist disease; * applying more chemical fertilizers, the consumption of which rose more than ninefold8/; * using more pesticides and similar chemicals, the use of which increased thirty-two-fold9/; and * increasing irrigated area, which more than doubled.10/ 8. Global statistics mask substantial regional differences. (See Box 5-1.) The impacts of new technology have been uneven, and in some respects the agricultural technology gap has widened. For instance, average African foodgrain productivity declined in relation to European productivity from roughly one-half to about one-fifth over the past 35 years. Even in Asia, where new technology has spread rapidly, productivity in relation to-European levels dropped.11/ Similar 'technology gaps' have emerged between regions within countries. 9. The past few decades have seen the emergence of three broad types of food production systems. 'Industrial agriculture', capital- and input-intensive and usually large-scale, is dominant in North America, Western and Eastern Europe. Australia and New Zealand, and in some small areas in developing countries. 'Green Revolution agriculture' is found in uniform, resource-rich, often flat and irrigated areas in the agricultural heartlands of some developing countries. It is more widespread in Asia but is also found in parts of Latin America and North Africa. Though initially the new technologies may have favoured large farmers, they are today accessible to a growing number of small producers. 'Resource-poor agriculture' relies on uncertain rain rather than irrigation and is usually found in developing regions difficult to farm - drylands, highlands, and forests - with fragile soils. This includes most of sub-Saharan Africa and the remoter areas of Asia and Latin America. Here, per capita production has been declining and hunger is a critical problem. But today, all three systems of food production display signs of crises that endanger their growth. II. SIGNS OF CRISIS 10. Agricultural policies in practically all countries have focused on output growth. Despite this, it has proved far more difficult to raise world agricultural output by a consistent 3 per cent a year in the mid-1980s than it was in the mid-1950s. Moreover, production records have been offset by the appearance /... A/42/427 English Page 12 5 BOX 5-1 Regional Perspectives on Agricultural Development Africa * a drop in per capita food output of about 1 per cent a year since the beginning of the 1970s * a focus on cash crops and a growing dependence on imported food, fostered by pricing policies and foreign exchange compulsions * major gaps in infrastructure for research, extension, input supply, and marketing * degradation of the agricultural resource base due to desertification, droughts, and other processes * large untapped potential of arable land, irrigation, and fertilizer use West Asia and North Africa * improvements in productivity due to better irrigation, the cultivation of high-yielding varieties, and higher fertilizer use * limited arable land and considerable amounts of desert, making food self-sufficiency a challenge * a need for controlled irrigation to cope with dry conditions South and East Asia * increased production and productivity, with some countries registering grain surpluses * rapid growth in fertilizer use in some countries and extensive development of irrigation * government commitments to be self-reliant in food, leading to national research centres, development of high-yielding seeds, and the fostering of location-specific technologies * little unused land, and extensive, unabated deforestation * growing numbers of rural landless Latin America * declining food imports since 1980, as food production kept pace with population growth over the last decade * government support in the form of research centres to develop high-yielding seeds and other technologies * inequitable distribution of land * deforestation and degradation of the agricultural resource base, fueled partly by foreign trade and debt crisis * a huge land resource and high productivity potential, though most of the potentially arable land is in the remote, lightly populated Amazon Basin, where perhaps only 20 per cent of the land is suitable for sustainable agriculture /... A/42/427 English Page 126 (Box 5-1 continued) North America and Western Europe * North America the world's leading source of surplus foodgrain, though the rate of increase in output per hectare and in total productivity slowed in the 1970s * subsidies for production that are ecologically and economically expensive * depressing effect of surpluses on world markets and consequent impact on developing countries * a resource base increasingly degraded through erosion, acidification, and water contamination * in North America, some scope for future agricultural expansion in frontier areas that can be intensively farmed only at high cost Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union * food deficits met through imports, with the Soviet Union being the world's largest grain importer * increased government investment in agriculture accompanied by eased farm distribution and organization to meet desires for food self-reliance, leading to production increases in meat and root crops * pressures on agricultural resources through soil erosion, acidification, salinization, alkalization, and water contamination of linked economic and ecological crises: Industrialized countries are finding it increasingly difficult to manage their surplus food production, the livelihood base of millions of poor producers in developing countries is deteriorating, and the resource base for agriculture is under pressure virtually everywhere. l. impact of Subsidies 11. The food surpluses in North America and Europe result mainly from subsidies and other incentives that stimulate production even in the absence of demand. Direct or indirect subsidies, which now cover virtually the entire food cycle, have become extremely expensive. In the United States, the cost of farm support has grown from $2.7 billion in 1980 to $25.8 billion in 1986. In the EEC, such costs have risen from $6.2 billion in 1976 to $21.5 billion in 1986.12/ 12. It has become politically more attractive, and usually cheaper, to export surpluses - often as food aid - rather than to store them. These heavily subsidized surpluses depress the international market prices of commodities such as sugar and have created severe problems for several developing countries whose economies are based on agriculture. Non-emergency food aid and low-priced imports also keep down prices received by Third World farmers and reduce the incentive to improve domestic food production. /... A/42/4'27 English Page 127 13, The environmental consequences of a heavily subsidized production system are becoming evident within industrialized nations13/; * lower productivity as soil quality declines due to intensive soil cultivation and overuse of chemical fertilizers and pesticides**/; * the destruction of the countryside, through clearing of hedgerows, park belts, and other protective cover and the levelling, occupation, and cultivation of marginal land and watershed protection areas; and * nitrate pollution of ground-water aquifers due to the often subsidized overuse of nitrate fertilizers, 14. The financial, economic, and environmental effects of the current incentive systems are beginning to be questioned by many governments and groups, including farm organizations. A particular area of concern is the impact of these policies on developing countries. They depress international prices of products, such as rice and sugar, that are important exports for many developing countries and so reduce exchange earnings of developing countries. They increase the instability of world prices. And they discourage the processing of agricultural commodities in the producing countries.15/ 15. It is in the interests of all. including the farmers, that the policies be changed. Indeed, in recent years some conservation-oriented changes have taken place and some subsidy systems have increasingly stressed the need to retire land from production. The financial and economic burden of subsidies must be reduced. The harm that these policies do to the agriculture of developing countries by disrupting world markets must be eliminated. 2. Neglect of the Small Producer 16. The new technology behind increases in agricultural productivity requires scientific and technological skills, a system for technology extension and other services for farmers, and commercial orientation in farm management. In many' parts of Asia, in particular, small farmers have shown a remarkable capacity to use new technology once they are given incentives and adequate financial and infrastructural support. Small cash-crop farmers in Africa have demonstrated the potential of the smallholder on that continent, and in the last few years successes have been recorded in food crops also. But ecologically disadvantaged areas and land-poor rural masses have not benefited from advances in technology and will not until governments are willing and able to redistribute land and resources, and give them the necessary support and incentives. 17. Agricultural support systems seldom take into account the special circumstances of subsistence farmers and herders. Subsistence farmers cannot afford the high cash outlay of modern inputs. Many are shifting cultivators who do not have a clear title to the land they use. They may plant a variety of crops on one plot to meet their own needs, and are thus unable to use A/42/427 English Page 128 t think that at a forum like this there always tends to be .„.eí„eh«ÍÄ 5 and sarin, r« ««»« -J J««;^ J"»* -V issue as an NGO. is rather important; it is the issue of women' And I am sure that most of the people here have a «Irian* sensitivity to women! s role vis-a-vis the environment. ""Espe"any in íftica. I think it has been clearly stated over and again that women are responsible for between 60 to 90 per cent of the food production, processing, and marketing. No one can really address the food crisis in Africa or many of the other crises that seem to exist here without addressing the question of women, and really seeing that women are participants in decision-making processes at the very basic all the way through up the highest level. Mrs. King The Greenbelt Movement WCED Public Hearing Nairobi. 23 Sept 1986 methods developed for large stands of a single crop. 18. Many herders are nomadic and difficult to reach with education, advice, and equipment. They, like subsistence farmers, depend on certain traditional rights, which are threatened by commercial developments. They herd traditional breeds, which are hardy but rarely highly productive. 19. Women farmers, though they play a critical role in food production, are often ignored by programmes meant to improve production. In Latin America, the Caribbean, and Asia they form a large agricultural labour force, while most of sub-Saharan Africa's food is grown by women. Yet almost all agricultural programmes tend to neglect the special needs of women farmers. 3. Degradation of the Resource Base 20. Short-sighted policies are leading to degradation of the agricultural resource base on almost every continent: soil erosion in North America: soil acidification in Europe; deforestation and desertification in Asia. Africa, and Latin America; and waste and pollution of water almost everywhere. Within 40-70 years, global warming may cause the flooding of important coastal production areas. Some of these effects arise from trends in energy use and industrial production. Some arise from the pressure of population on limited resources. But agricultural policies emphasizing increased production at the expense of environmental considerations have also contributed greatly to this deterioration. 3.1 Loss of Soil Resources Ü; n^1?0"?!-8 l? cropPed areaB in recent decades have often til ÍÍÍÍ fSiiXVat"? onto.»"Sinai lands prone to erosion. By ra J,9™8, "J1 «oaion exceeded soil formation on about a third of U.S. cropland, much of it in the midwestern agricultural /... A/42/427 English Page 129 heartland.16/ In Canada, soil degradation has been costing farmers $1 billion a year.17/ In the USSR, the extension of cultivation to the so-called Virgin Lands was a major plank of agricultural policy, but now it is believed that much of this land is marginal.L8/ In India, soil erosion affects 25-30 per cent of the total land under cultivation.19/ Without conservation measures, the total area of rainfed cropland in developing countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America would shrink by 544 million hectares over the long term because of soil erosion and degradation, according to an FAO study.20/ 22. Erosion makes soil less able to retain water, depletes it of nutrients, and reduces the depth available for the roots to take hold. Land productivity declines. Eroded topsoil is carried to rivers, lakes, and reservoirs, silts up ports and waterways, reduces reservoir storage capacity, and increases the incidence and severity of floods. 23. Poorly designed and implemented irrigation systems have caused waterlogging, salinization, and alkalization of soils. FAO and UNESCO estimate that as much as half the world's irrigation schemes suffer in some degree from these problems.21/ These estimates indicate that aorae 10 million hectares of irrigated land are being abandoned each year. 24. Soil degradation erodes the overall resource base for agriculture. The loss of croplands encourages farmers to overuse the remaining land and to move into forests and onto rangelands. Sustainable agriculture cannot be based on methods that mine and deplete the soil. 3.2 Impact of Chemicals 25. Chemical fertilizers and pesticides have played a large role in production increases since the Second World War, but clear warnings have been raised against over-reliance on them. The run-off of nitrogen and phosphates from excess use of fertilizers damages water resources, and such damage is spreading. 26. Using chemicals to control insects, pests, weeds, and fungi enhances productivity, but overuse threatens the health of humans and the lives of other species. Continuing, long-terra exposure to pesticide and chemical residues in food, water, and even in the air is hazardous, particularly to children. A 1983 study estimated that approximately 10,000 people died each year in developing countries from pesticide poisoning and about 400.000 suffered acutely.22/ The effects are not limited to the area where pesticides are used but travel through the food chain. 27. Commercial fisheries have been depleted, bird species endangered, and insects that prey on pests wiped out. The number of pesticide-resistant insect pest species worldwide has increased and many resist even the newest chemicals. The variety and severity of pest infestations multiply, threatening the productivity of agriculture in the areas concerned. 28. The use of agricultural chemicals is not in itself harmful. In fact, the level of use is still quite low in many A/42/421 English Page 130 regions. In these areas, response rates are high and the environmental consequences of residues are not yet a problem. Hence these regions would benefit by using more agrochemicals. However, the growth in the use of chemicals tends to be concentrated precisely where they may be doing more overall harm than good. 3.3 Pressure on Forests 29. Forests are crucial for maintaining and improving the productivity of agricultural land. Yet agricultural expansion, a growing world timber trade, and woodfuel demand have destroyed much forest cover. Although this destruction has occurred worldwide, today the greatest challenge is in developing countries, particularly in tropical forests. (See Chapter 6.) 30. Growing populations and the decreasing availability of arable land lead poor farmers in these countries to seek new land in forests to grow more food. Some government policies encourage the conversion of forests to pastures and others encourage large resettlement schemes in forests. There is nothing inherently wrong with clearing forests for farming, provided that the land is the best there is for new farming, can support the numbers encouraged to settle upon it, and is not already serving a more useful function, such as watershed protection. But often forests are cleared without forethought or planning. 31. Deforestation most severely disrupts mountainous areas and upland watersheds and the ecosystems that depend on them. The uplands influence precipitation, and the state of their soil and vegetation systems influence how this precipitation is released into the streams and rivers and onto the croplands of the plains below. The growing numbers and growing severity of both floods and droughts in many parts of the world have been linked to the deforestation of upland watersheds.23'' 3.4 Advancing Deserts 32. Some 29 per cent of the earth's land area suffers slight, moderate, or severe desertification; an additional 6 per cent is classified as extremely severely desertified.24/ In 1984. the world's drylands supported some 850 million people, of whom 230 million were on lands affected by severe desertification.25/ 33. The process of desertification affects almost every region of the globe, but it is most destructive in the drylands of South America. Asia, and Africa; for these three areas combined. 18.5 per cent (870 million hectares) of productive lands are severely desertified. Of the drylands in developing countries. Africa's Sudano-Sahelian zones and, to a lesser extent, some countries south of this zone suffer the most. In their arid and semi-arid lands are to be found 80 per cent of the moderately affected and 85 per cent of the severely affected people.26/ 34. Land permanently degraded to desert-like conditions continues to grow at an annual rate of 6 million hectares.27/ Each year. 21 million additional hectares provide no economic /... A/42/427 English Page 131 Small farmers are held responsible for environmental destruction as if they had a choice of resources to depend on for their livelihood, when they really don't. In the context of basic survival, today's needs tend to overshadow consideration for the environmental future. It is poverty that is responsible for the destruction of natural resources, not the poor. Geoffrey Bruce Canadian International Development Agency WCED Public Hearing Ottawa, 26/27 May 1986 return because of the spread of desertification.28// These trends are expected to continue despite some local improvements. 35. Desertification is caused by a complex mix of climatic and human effects. The human effects, over which we have more control, include the rapid growth of both human and animal populations, detrimental land use practices (especially deforestation), adverse terms of trade, and civil strife. The cultivation of cash crops on unsuitable rangelands has forced herders and their cattle onto marginal lands. The unfavourable international terms of trade for primary products and the policies of aid donors have reinforced pressures to encourage increasing cash-crop production at any cost. 36. A Plan of Action conceived by UNEP and drawn up at the 1977 UN Conference on Desertification has led to some slight, mainly local gains.29/ Progress on the plan has been hampered by lack of financial support from the international community, by inadequacies of the regional organizations established to respond to the regional nature of the problem, and by the lack of involvement of grass-roots communities. III. THE CHALLENGE 37. Food demand will increase as populations increase and their consumption patterns change. In the remaining years of this century, about 1.3 billion people will be added to the human family (see Chapter 4); rising incomes, however, may account for 30 to 40 per cent of the increased demand for food in developing countries and about 10 per cent in industrial nations.3°/ Thus over the next few decades, the global food system must be managed to increase food production by 3 to 4 per cent yearly. 38. Global food security depends not only on raising global production, but on reducing distortions in the structure of the world food market and on shifting the focus of food production to food-deficit countries, regions, and households. Many of the countries not growing enough food to feed themselves possess the largest remaining reservoirs of untapped agricultural resources. /... A/42/427 English Page 132 There are many contradictions in agricultural development. The blind imitation of models developed under different circumstances will have to give way to the realities and conditions existing in Africa. Large areas of virgin land have been opened up for export crops whose prices keeps declining. This is not in the interest of developing countries. There are so many problems to be overcome that we forget that every problem is an opportunity to do something positive. This is an opportunity for us to think of conservation and environment in a broad educational context. In doing so, we will be able to capture the next generation and demonstrate the wonder and the benefits of the world around them. Adolfo Mascarenhas IUCN Harare Office WCED Public Hearing Harare, 18 Sept 1986 Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa have much unused land, although its quality and quantity vary greatly from nation to nation and much of it is ecologically vulnerable.31/ The Soviet Union and parts of North America have significant amounts of frontier land suitable for agriculture; only Asia and Europe are truly land-starved. 39. Global food security also depends on ensuring that all people, even the poorest of the poor, can get food. While on the world scale this challenge requires a reappraisal of global food distribution, the task weighs more immediately and heavily on national governments. Inequitable distribution of production assets, unemployment, and underemployment are at the heart of the problem of hunger in many countries. 40. Rapid, sound agricultural development will mean not only more food but more opportunities for people to earn money to purchase food. Thus when countries with untapped agricultural resources provide food by importing more, they are effectively importing unemployment. By the same token, countries that are subsidizing food exports are increasing unemployment in food-importing countries. This marginalizes people, and marginalized people are forced to destroy the resource base to survive. Shifting production to food-deficit countries and to the resource-poor farmers within those countries is a way of securing sustainable livelihoods. 41. Conserving the agricultural resource base and livelihood security of the poor can be mutually supportive in three ways. First, secure resources and adequate livelihoods lead to good husbandry and sustainable management. Second, they ease rural-to-urban migration, stimulate agricultural production from resources that otherwise would be underused, and reduce the need for food to be produced elsewhere. Third, by combating poverty, they help to slow population growth. /... A/4 2/427 English Page 133 42. Shifting the focus of production to food-deficit countries will also reduce pressures on agricultural resources in the industrialized market economies, enabling them to move towards more sustainable agricultural practices. Incentive structures can be changed so that instead of encouraging overproduction, they encourage farm practices that improve soil and water quality. Government budgets will be relieved of the burdens of storing and exporting surplus products. 43, This shift in agricultural production will be sustainable only if the resource base is secure. As indicated, this is far from the case today. Thus to achieve global food security, the resource base for food production must be sustained, enhanced, and, where it has been diminished or destroyed, restored. IV. STRATEGIES FOR SUSTAINABLE FOOD SECURITY 44. Food security requires more than good conservation programmes, which can be - and usually are - overridden and undermined by inappropriate agricultural, economic, and trade policies. Nor is it just a matter of adding an environmental component to programmes. Food strategies must take into account all the policies that bear upon the threefold challenge of shifting production to where it is most needed, of securing the livelihoods of the rural poor, and of conserving resources. 1. Government Intervention 45. Government intervention in agriculture is the rule in both industrial and developing countries, and it is here to stay. Public investment in agricultural research and extension services, assisted farm credit and marketing services, and a range of other support systems have all played parts in the successes of the last half-century. In fact, the real problem in many developing countries is the weakness of these systems. 46. Intervention has taken other forms as well. Many governments regulate virtually the entire food cycle - inputs and outputs, domestic sales, exports, public procurement, storage and distribution, price controls and subsidies - as well as imposing various land use regulations: acreage, crop variety, and so on. 47. in general, patterns of government intervention suffer three basic defects. First, the criteria that underlie the planning of these interventions lack an ecological orientation and are often dominated by short-term considerations. These criteria should discourage environmentally unsound farm practices and encourage farmers to maintain and improve their soils, forests, and waters. 48. The second defect is that agricultural policy tends to operate within a national framework with uniform prices and subsidies, standardized criteria for the provision of support services, indiscriminate financing of infrastructure investments. /... A/42/427 English Page 134 The problem in agriculture is not faceless. I as a farmer am a potential victim of the system that we now operate under. Why are approximately a quarter of Canadian farmers facing the immediate prospects of farm bankruptcy? It is directly related to the general concept of a cheap food policy that has constituted a cornerstone of federal agricultural policy since the beginning of settlement. He regard the current cheap food policy as a form of economic violence that is contributing towards soil exploitation and the growing impersonal relationship between farmers and the soil for economic survival. It is a policy of industrialization that can lead only towards disaster economically—for us as farmers, and environmentally for us all as Canadians and as world citizens. Wayne Easter President. National Farmers' Union WCED Public Hearing Ottawa, 26/27 May 1986 and so forth. Policies that vary from region to region are needed to reflect different regional needs, encouraging farmers , to adopt practices that are ecologically sustainable in their own areas. 49. The importance of regional policy differentiation can be easily illustrated: * Hill areas may require incentive prices for fruits and subsidized supplies of foodgrains to induce farmers to shift towards horticulture, which may be ecologically more sustainable. * In areas prone to wind and water erosion, public intervention through subsidies and other measures should encourage farmers to conserve soil and water. * Farmers on land over recharge areas for underground aquifers subject to nitrate pollution might be given incentives to maintain soil fertility and increase productivity by means other than nitrate fertilizers. 50. The third defect in government intervention lies in incentive structures. In industrialized countries, overprotection of farmers and overproduction represent the accumulated result of tax reliefs, direct subsidies, and price controls. Such policies are now studded with contradictions that encourage the degradation of the agricultural resource base and. in the long run, do more harm than good to the agricultural industry. Some governments now recognize this and are making efforts to change the focus of the subsidies from production growth to conservation. 51. On the other hand, in most developing countries the incentive structure is weak. Market interventions are often ineffective for lack of an organizational structure for /... A/42/427 English Page 135 procurement and distribution. Farmers are exposed to a high degree of uncertainty, and price support systems have often favoured the urban dweller or are limited to a few commercial crops, leading to distortions of cropping patterns that add to destructive pressures on the resource base. In some cases, price controls reduce the incentive to produce. What is required, in many cases, is nothing less than a radical attempt to turn the 'terms of trade' in favour of farmers through pricing policy and government expenditure reallocation. 52. Strengthening food security from a global point of view requires reducing incentives that force overproduction and non-competitive production in the developed market economies and enhancing those that encourage food production in developing countries. At the same time, these incentive structures must be redesigned to promote farming practices that conserve and enhance the agricultural resource base. 2. A Global Perspective 53. Trade in agricultural products tripled between 1950 and 1970; it has doubled since then. Yet, when it comes to farming, countries are at their most conservative, continuing to think mainly in local or national terms and concerned, above all, to protect their own farmers at the expense of competitors. 54. Shifting food production towards food-deficit countries will require a major shift in trading patterns. Countries must recognize that all parties lose through protectionist barriers, which reduce trade in food products in which some nations may have genuine advantage. They must begin by redesigning their trade, tax, and incentive systems using criteria that include ecological and economic sustainability and international comparative advantage. 55. The incentive-driven surpluses in developed market economies increase pressures to export these surpluses at subsidized prices or as non-emergency food aid. Donor and receiving countries should be responsible for the impacts of aid and use it for long-terra objectives. It can be beneficially used in projects to restore degraded lands, build up rural infrastructure, and raise the nutrition level of vulnerable groups. 3. The Resource Base 56. Agricultural production can only be sustained on a long-term basis if the land, water, and forests on which it is based are not degraded. As suggested, a reorientation of public intervention will provide a framework for this. But more specific policies that protect the resource base are needed to maintain and even enhance agricultural productivity and the livelihoods of all rural dwellers. 3.1 Land Use 57. The initial task in enhancing the resource base will be to delineate broad land categories: /... A/42/427 English Page 13 6 * enhancement areas, which are capable of sustaining intensive cropping and higher population and consumption levels; * prevention areas, which by common consent should not be developed for intensive agriculture or, where developed, should be converted to other uses; and * restoration areas, where land stripped of vegetative cover has either totally lost its productivity or had it drastically reduced. 58. Identifying land according to 'best use1 criteria requires information that is not always available. Most industrial nations possess inventories and descriptions of their lands, forests, and waters that are detailed enough to provide a basis for delineating land categories. Few developing countries have such inventories, but they can and should develop them quickly using satellite monitoring and other rapidly changing techniques.32/ 59. Selection of land for each category could be made the responsibility of a board or commission representing the interests involved, especially the poor and more marginalized segments of the population. The process must be public in character, with publicly agreed criteria that combine the best use approach with the level of development required to sustain livelihood. Classifying land according to best use will determine variations in infrastructure provision, support services, promotional measures, regulatory restrictions, fiscal subsidies, and other incentives and disincentives. 60. Lands identified as prevention areas should be denied supports and subsidies that would encourage their development for intensive agriculture. But such areas might well support certain ecologically and economically sustainable uses such as grazing, fuelwood plantations, fruit farming, and forestry. Those redesigning support systems and incentives should focus on a broader range of crops, including those that enhance grazing, soil and water conservation, and so on. 61. In vast areas today natural factors and land use practices have reduced productivity to a point too low to sustain even subsistence farming. Treatment of these areas must vary from site to site. Governments should give priority to establishing a national policy and multidisciplinary programmes and to creating or strengthening institutions to restore such areas. Where these already exist, they should be better coordinated and designed. The UN Plan of Action to Combat Desertification, which is already in place, requires more support, particularly financial. 62. Restoration may require limits on human activities so as to permit the regeneration of vegetation. This can be difficult where there are large herds of animals or large numbers of people, for the agreement and participation of the local people are of the highest importance. The state, with the cooperation of those living locally, could protect these areas by declaring them national reserves. Where these areas are privately held, the state might wish either to purchase the land from the owners or to provide incentives for its restoration. /... A/42/427 English Page 137 Intensive agriculture may quickly exhaust the soil cover, causing its degradation, unless some special soil protection measures aimed at constant restoration and expanded reproduction of fertility are taken. The task of agriculture is thus not confined to obtaining the biological product but extends to constant maintenance and augmentation of soil fertility. Otherwise we will very quickly consume what by right belongs to our children, grandchildren, and great-grandchildren, to say nothing of more distant descendants. It is this misgiving - that our generation lives to a certain extent at the expense of the coming generations, thoughtlessly drawing on the basic reserves of soil fertility accumulated in the millennia of the biospheric development, instead of living off the current annual increment - that causes the increasing concern of scientists dealing with the state of the planetary soil cover. B. G. Rozanov Moscow State University WCED Public Hearing Moscow, 11 Dec 1986 3.2 Water Management 63. improvements in water management are essential to raise agricultural productivity and to reduce land degradation and water pollution. Critical issues concern the design of irrigation projects and the efficiency of water use. 64. Where water is scarce, an irrigation project should maximize productivity per unit of water; where water is plentiful, it must maximize productivity per unit of land. But local conditions will dictate how much water can be used without damaging the soil. Salinization. alkalization, and waterlogging can be avoided by a more careful approach to drainage, maintenance, cropping patterns, the regulation of water quantities, and more rational water charges. Many of these objectives will be easier to realize in small-scale irrigation projects. But whether small or large, the projects must be designed with the abilities and aims of the participating farmers in mind, and then involve them in the management. 65. In some areas excessive use of ground-water is rapidly lowering the water table - usually a case where private benefits are being realized at society's expense. Where ground-water use exceeds the recharge capacity of local aquifers, regulatory or fiscal controls become essential. The combined use of ground and surface water can improve the timing of water availability and stretch limited supplies. 3.3 Alternatives to Chemicals 66. Many countries can and should increase yields by greater use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides, particularly in the developing world. But countries can also improve yields by A/42/427 English Page 138 halninn farmers to use organic nutrients more efficiently. Hence cove ä mí t entourage the use of more organic plant Iľtl encT o complement chemicals. Pest control must also be based increasingly on the use of natural methods. (See Box 5-2) These strategies :equire conges in public Policies, which now encourage the increased use of cnemical pesticides and fertilizers. The legislative, policy, and research capacity foc advancing non-chemical and less-chemical strategies must be established and sustained. 67 Chemical fertilisers and pesticides are heavily subsidized in many countries. These subsidies promote chemical use precisely in the more commercially oriented agricultural areas where their environmental damage may already outweigh any increases in productivity they bring. Hence different regions will require different policies to regulate and promote chemical use. 68. Legislative and institutional frameworks for controlling agrochemicals must be greatly strengthened everywhere. Industrialized countries must tighten controls on pesticide exports. (See Chapter 8.) Developing countries must possess the basic legislative and institutional instruments to manage the use of agricultural chemicals within their countries. And they will neod technical and financial assistance to do so. 3.4 Forestry and Agriculture 69. Undisturbed forests protect watersheds, reduce erosion, offer habitats for wild species, and play key roles in climatic systems. They are also an economic resource providing timber, fuelwood, and other products. The crucial task is to balance the need to exploit forests against the need to preserve them. 70. Sound forest policies can be based only on an analysis of the capacity of the forests and the land under them to perform various functions. Such an analysis might lead to some forests being cleared for intensive cultivation, others for livestock; some forestland might be managed for increased timber production or agroforestry use and some left intact for watershed protection, recreation, or species conservation. The extension of agriculture into forest areas must be based on scientific classification of Und capacities. 71. Programmes to preserve forest resources must start with the local people who are both victims and agents of destruction, and who will bear the burden of any new management scheme.33/ They should be at the centre of integrated forest management, which is the basis of sustainable agriculture. 72. such an approach would entail changes in the way governments set development priorities, as well as the evolution of greater responsibility to local governments and communities. ™"ľí" ľ7"Ing f0rest use win have to be negotiated, or lllrl^ ! ' enSľ" sustain*bility of forest exploitation and overall environmental and ecosystem conservation. Prices for /... A/42/427 Rnglish Paqe 139 BOX 5-2 Natural Systems of Nutrient Supply and Pest Control Crop residues and farmyard manure are potential sources of soil nutrients. Organic wastes reduce run-off, increase the taIce-up of other nutrients, and improve soil's water-holding and erosion-resistance capacity. Using farmyard manure, especially in conjunction with intercropping and crop rotation, can greatly lower production costs. Overall systems efficiency is enhanced if manure or vegetable biomass is anaerobically digested in biogas plants, yielding energy for cooking and to run pumps, motors, or electric generators. Natural systems of biological nitrogen fixation through the use of certain annual plants, trees, and micro-organisms have a high potential. Integrated pest management (IPM) reduces the need for agrochemicals, improves a country's balance of payments. releases foreign exchange for other development projects, and creates jobs where they are most needed. IPM requires detailed information about pests and their natural enemies, seed varieties tailored to resist pests, integrated cropping patterns, and farmers who support the approach and are willing to modify farm practices to adopt it. fo>:est products need to reflect the true resource value of the goods. 73. Portions of forests may be designated as prevention areas. These are predominantly national parks, which could be set aside from agricultural exploitation to conserve soil, water, and wildlife. They may also include marginal lands whose exploitation accelerates land degradation through erosion or desertification. In this connection, the reforestation of degraded forest areas is of utmost importance. Conservation areas or national parks can also conserve genetic resources in their natural habitats. (See Chapter 6.) 74. Forestry can also be extended into agriculture. Farmers can use agroforestry systems to produce food and fuel. In such systems, one or more tree crops are combined with one or more food crops or animal farming on the same land, though sometimes at different times. Well-chosen crops reinforce each other and yield more food and fuel than when grown separately. The technology is particularly suitable for small farmers and for poor-quality lands. Agroforestry has been practised by traditional farmers everywhere. The challenge today is to revive the old methods, improve them, adapt them to the new conditions, and develop new ones.34/ /... A/42/427 English Page 140 75. International forestry research organizations should work in various tropical countries in various ecosystems along the lines now followed by the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Rssearch. There is considerable scope for institution building and additional research on forestry's role in agricultural production, for example by developing models that better predict the effects on water and soil loss of removing specific portions of forest cover. 3.5 Aquaculture 76. Fisheries and aquaculture are critical to food security in that they provide both protein and employment. The greater part of world fish supply comes from marine fisheries, which yielded 76.8 million tons in 1983. Landings have increased by 1 million tons per year over the past few years; by the end of the century, a catch of around 100 million tons should be possible.35/ This is well short of tha projected demand. There are indications that much of the naturally available freshwater fish stocks are fully exploited or damaged by pollution. 77. Aquaculture, or 'fish-farming1, which differs from conventional fishing in that fish are deliberately reared in controlled water bodies, can help meet future needs. Yields from aquaculture have doubled during the last decade and now represent about 10 per cent of world production of fishery products.36/ A five- to tenfold increase is projected by the year 2000, given the necessary scientific, financial, and organizational support.37/ Aquaculture can bt under t a Iren in paddy fields, abandoned raining excavation1?, siull ponds, and many other areas with some water, as well a? on various commercial scales: individual, family, cooperative, or corporate. The expansion of aquaculture should be give.i ^igh priority in developing and developed countries. 4. Productivity and yields 78. The conservation and enhancement of agriculture's resource base will increase production and productivity. But specific measures are required to make i.iputs more effective. This is best done by strengthening the technological and human resource base for agriculture in developing countries. 4.1 The Technological Base 79. Blends of traditional and tiodern technologies offer possibilities for improving nutrition and increasing rural employment on a sustainable basis. Biotechnology, including tissue culture techniques, technologies for preparing value-added products from bioraass, micro-electronics, computer sciences, satellite imagery, and communication technology are all aspects of frontier technologies that can improve agricultural productivity and resource management.38/ 80. Providing sustainable livelihoods for resource-poor farmers presents a special challenge for agricultural research. The major advances in agricultural technology in recent decades are /... A/42/427 English Page 141 Thus at the root of this environmental problem is a land problem that has to be solved if any serious ecological policy is to be taken - and reorientation of the agricultural policy has to be undertaken I believe that any conservationist policy ha s to be followed by a coherent agricultural policy that will meet the need not only of preservation as such but also meet the needs < Df the Brazilian population. Julio M.G. Gaiger President, National Indian Support Association WCED Public Hearing Sao Paulo. 28/29 Oct 1985 better suited to stable, uniform, resource-rich conditions with good soils and ample water supplies. New technologies are most urgently needed in sub-Saharan Africa and the remoter areas of Asia and Latin America, which typically have unreliable rainfall, uneven topography, and poorer soils, and hence are unsuited to Green Revolution technologies. 81. To serve agriculture in these areas, research has to be less centralized and more sensitive to farmers' conditions and priorities. Scientists will need to start talking to poor farmers and basing research priorities on growers' priorities. Researchers must learn from and develop the innovations of farmers and not just the reverse. More adaptive research should be done right on the farm, using research stations for referral and with farmers eventually evaluating the results. 82. Commercial enterprises can help develop and diffuse technology, but public institutions must provide the essential framework for agricultural research and extension. Few academic and research institutions in developing regions are adequately funded. The problem is most acute in the low-income countries, where expenditure on agricultural research and extension amounts to 0.9 per cent of total agricultural income, as against 1.5 per cent in the middle-income countries.39/ Research and extension efforts must be greatly expanded, especially in areas where climate, soils, and terrain pose special problems. 83. These areas particularly will need new seed varieties, but so will much developing-country agriculture. At present, 55 per cent of the world's scientifically stored plant genetic resources is controlled by institutions in industrial countries, 31 per cent by institutions in developing countries, and 14 per cent by International Agricultural Research Centres.40/ Much of this genetic material originated in developing countries. These gene banks must increase their inventories of material, improve their storage techniques, and ensure that the resources are readily accessible to research centres in developing countries. 84. Private companies increasingly seek proprietary rights to improved seed varieties, often without recognizing the rights of /... i( A/42/427 English Page 142 the countries from which the plant matter was obtained. ThiB could discourage countries rich in genetic resources from making these internationally available and thus reduce the options for seed development in all countries. The genetic research capabilities of developing countries are so limited that agriculture there could become excessively dependent on private gene banks and seed companies elsewhere. Thus international cooperation and a clear understanding on the sharing of gains are vital in critical areas of agricultural technology, such as the development of new seed varieties. 4.2 Human Resources 85. The technological transformation of traditional agriculture will be difficult without a matching effort to develop human resources. (See Chapter 4.) This means educational reforms to produce researchers more attuned to the needs of rural peoples and agriculture. Illiteracy is still widespread among the rural poor. But efforts to promote literacy should focus attention on functional literacy covering the efficient use of land, water, and foreBts. 86. Despite women's critical role in agriculture, their access to education and their representation i»* research, extension, and other support services is woefully inadequate. Women should be given the same educational opportunities as men. There should be more female extension workers, and women should participate in field visits. Women should be given more power to take decisions regarding agricultural and forestry programmes. 4.3 Productivity of Inputs 87. In traditional agriculture, local organic material provided farmers with sources of energy, nutrients, and ways of controlling pests. Today, these needs are increasingly met by electricity, petroleum products, chemical fertilizers, and pesticides. The cost of these inputs forms a growing proportion of agricultural costs, and wasteful use does economic and ecological harm. 88. One of the most important energy-related needs is mechanical power for irrigation. The efficiency of pumps could be greatly improved by providing appropriate incentives for equipment producers and farmers, and through effective extension work. Energy for irrigation pumps can also be provided by wind generators or by conventional internal combustion engines running on biogas produced from local biomass wastes. Solar dryers and solar coolers can save agricultural products. These non-conventional sources should be promoted, particularly in areas poor in energy resources. 89. Nutrients are lost when fertilizers are improperly applied. Often they leach away with the flow of water in a field and degrade local water supplies. Similar problems of waste and destructive side effects occur in the use of pesticides. Hence extension systems and chemical manufacturers will need to give priority to programmes to promote careful and economical use of /.... A/42/427 English Page 143 these expensive, toxic materials. 5. Equity 90. The challenge of sustainable agriculture is to raise not just average productivity and incomes, but also the productivity and incomes of those poor in resources. And food security is not just a question of raising food production, but of ensuring that the rural and urban poor do not go hungry during the short term or midst a local food scarcity. All this requires the systematic promotion of equity in food production and distribution. 5.1 Land Reforms 91. In many countries where land is very unequally distributed land reform is a basic requirement. Without it. institutional and policy changes meant to protect the resource base can actually promote inequalities by shutting the poor off from resources and by favouring those with large farms, who are better able to obtain the limited credit and services available. By leaving hundreds of millions without options, such changes can have the opposite of their intended effect, ensuring the continued violation of ecological imperatives. 92. Given institutional and ecological variations, a universal approach to land reform is impossible. Each country should work: out its own programme of land reform to assist the land-poor and to provide a base for coordinated resource conservation. The redistribution of land is particularly important where large estates and vast numbers of the land-poor coexist. Crucial components include the reform of tenancy arrangements, security of tenure, and the clear recording of land rights. In agrarian reforms the productivity of the land and. in forest areas, the protection of forests should be a major concern. 93. In areas where holdings are fragmented into many non-contiguous plots, land consolidation can ease the implementation of resource conservation measures. Promoting cooperative efforts by small farmers - in pest control or water management, for instance - would also help conserve resources. 94. In many countries women do not have direct land rights; titles go to men only. In the interests of food security, land reforms should recognize women's role in growing food. Women, especially those heading households, should be given direct land rights. 5.2 Subsistence Farmers and Pastoralists 95. Subsistence farmers, pastoralists, and nomads threaten the environmental resource base when processes beyond their control squeeze their numbers onto land or into areas that cannot support thera. 96. The traditional rights of subsistence farmers, particularly shifting cultivators, pastoralists. and nomads, must therefore be protected from encroachments. Land tenure rights and communal rights in particular must be respected. When their traditional /•-- A/42/427 English Page 144 practices threaten the resource base, their rights may have to be curtailed, but only when alternatives have been provided. Most of these groups will need to be helped to diversify their livelihoods by entering the market economy through employment programmes and some cash-crop production. 97. Research should give early attention to the varied requirements of the mixed farming typical in subsistence agriculture. Extension and input supply systems must become more mobile to reach shifting cultivators and nomads and priority given to public investment to improve their cropland, grazing areas, and water sources. 5.3 Integrated Rural Development 98. Rural populations will continue to increase in many countries. With existing patterns of land distribution, the number of smallholders and landless households will increase by about 50 million, to nearly 220 million, by the year 2000.41/ Together, these groups represent three-quarters of the agricultural households in developing countries.42/ Without adequate livelihood opportunities, these resource-poor households will remain poor and be forced to overuse the resource base to survive. 99. Considerable effort has gone into creating strategies of integrated rural development, and the requirements and pitfalls are well known. Experience has shown that land reform is necessary but alone is not enough without support through the distribution of inputs and rural services. Smallholders, including - indeed especially - women, must be given preference when allocating scarce resources, staff, and credit. Small farmers must also be more involved in formulating agricultural policies. 100. Integrated rural development also requires resources to absorb the large increases in rural working populations expected in most developing countries through non-agricultural work opportunities, which should be promoted in rural areas. Successful agricultural development and the growth in incomes should open up opportunities in service activities and small-scale manufacturing if supported by public policy. 5.4 Food Availability Fluctuations 101. Environmental degradation can make food shortages more frequent and more severe. Hence sustainable agricultural development will reduce the season-to-season variability in food supplies. But such systems cannot eliminate it. There will be weather-induced fluctuations, and the growing dependence on only a few crop varieties over large areas may amplify the effects of weather and pest damage. Often it is the poorest households and the ecologically disadvantaged regions that suffer most from these shortages. 102. Food stocks are crucial in dealing with shortages. At present, the world stock of cereals is on the order of 20 per cent of annual consumption: The developing world controls about /... 5-24 A/42/427 English Page 145 As agriculture production is being developed, a rising number of farmers have been able to purchase tractors. But they find that, after using them for a year, it becomes much more expensive than they expected because they have to spend a tremendous amount of money on expensive spare parts. Perhaps we might recommend that Indonesia establish a factory that makes these spare parts, before they continue encouraging introduction of tractors in agriculture. For this reason, a number of loans that the government has been providing for farmers to modernize their agricultural techniques, particularly buying tractors, have not been paid back. If the tractors were still running, they could probably pay back their loans. In fact, now these tractors are becoming a problem themselves, because they sit around getting rusty, and thus turning into pollution. Andi Nappasala Chairman. Yayasan Teilung Poccoe WCED Public Hearing Jakarta. 26 March 1985 one-third of the stock and the industrial world, two-thirds. More than half the developing-country stock is in two countries -China and India. Stock levels in most of the others provide only for immediate operational requirements; there is little by way of a reserve.43/ 103. The food stocks of industrialized countries are essentially surpluses, and provide a basis for emergency assistance, which must be maintained. But emergency food aid is a precarious basis for food security: developing countries should build up national stocks in surplus years to provide reserves as well as encouraging development of food security at the household level. To do this, they will need an effective system of public support for measures facilitating the purchase, transportation, and distribution of food. The provision of strategically located storage facilities is critical both to reduce post-harvest losses and to provide a base for quick interventions in emergencies. 104. During most food shortages, poor households not only cannot produce food but also lose their usual sources of income and cannot buy the food that is available. Hence food security also requires that machinery is available promptly to put purchasing power in the hands of disaster-struck households, through emergency public works programme, and through measures to protect small farmers from crop failures. V. FOOD FOR THE FUTURE 105. The challenge of increasing food production to keep pace with demand, while retaining the essential ecological integrity /... A/42/427 English Page 146 of production systems, is colossal both in its magnitude and complexity. But we have the knowledge we need to conserve our land and water resources. New technologies provide opportunities for increasing productivity while reducing pressures on resources. A new generation of farmers combine experience with education. With these resources at our command, we can meet the needs of the human family. Standing in the way is the narrow focus of agricultural planning and policies. 106. The application of the concept of sustainable development to the effort to ensure food security requires systematic attention to the renewal of natural resources. It requires a holistic approach focused on ecosystems at national, regional, and global levels, with coordinated land use and careful planning of water usage and forest exploitation. The goal of ecological security should be embedded firmly in the mandates of FAO. other UN organizations that deal with agriculture, and all other appropriate international agencies. It will also require an enhancement and reorientation of international assistance. (See Chapter 3.) 107. The agricultural systems that have been built up over the past few decades have contributed greatly to the alleviation of hunger and the raising of living standards. They have served their purposes up to a point. But they were built for the purposes of a smaller, more fragmented world. New realities reveal their inherent contradictions. These realities require agricultural systems that focus as much attention on people as they do on technology, as much on resources as on production, as much on the long term as on the short term. Only such systems can meet the challenge of the future. Footnotes Based on data from FAO, Production Yearbook 1985 (Rome: 1986). Based on World Bank estimates for 1980, according to which 340 million people in developing countries (excluding China) did not have enough income to attain a minimum calorie standard that would prevent serious health risks and stunted growth in children, and 730 million were below a higher standard that would allow an active working life. See World Bank, Poverty and Hunger: Issues and Options for Food Security in Developing Countries (Washington, DC: 1986). FAO, Yearbook of Food and Agriculture Statistics. 1951 (Home: 1952); FAO, Production Yearbook 1985. op. cit. /... A/42/42 7 English Page 147 4/ FAO. Yearbook of Food and Agricultural Statistics, Trade Volume, Part 2 1951 and Trade Yearbook 1982 and 1984 (Rome: 1952. 1983, and 1985). 5/ FAO. Trade Yearbook 1968 and Commodities Review and Outlook 1984-85 (Rome: 1969 and 1986). 6/ FAO, Yearbook of Food and Agricultural Statistics. Trade Volume, Part 2 1954 (Rome: 1955); FAO, Commodities Review, op. cit. 7/ FAO, Production Yearbook 1984 (Rome: 1985). 8/ L.R. Brown, 'Sustaining World Agriculture,' in L.R. Brown et al., State of the World 1987 (London: W.W. Norton. 1987). 9/ A. Gear (ed.), The Organic Food Guide (Essex: 1983). 10/ USSR Committee for the International Hydrological Decade. World Water Balance and Water Resources of the Earth (Paris: UNESCO, 1978). 11/ FAO. Yearbook of Food and Agricultural Statistics 1951 and Production Yearbook 1984. op. cit. 12/ 'Dairy. Prairie1. The Economist. 15 November 1986. 13/ WCED Advisory Panel on Food Security, Agriculture, Forestry and Environment, Food Security (London: Zed Books, 1987). 14/ The term pesticides is used in a generic sense in this report and covers insecticides, herbicides, fungicides, and similar agricultural inputs, 15/ World Bank, World Development Report 1986 (New York: Oxford University Press. 1986). 16/ Brown, op. cit. 17/ Standing Committee on Agriculture. Fisheries and Forestry. Soil at Risk: Canada's Eroding Future, A Report on Soil Conservation to the Senate of Canada (Ottawa: 1984). 18/ Brown, op. cit. 19/ Centre for Science and Environment, The State of India's Environment 1984-85 (New Delhi: 1985). 20/ FAO. Land. Food and People (Rome: 1984). 21/ I. Szabolcs, 'Agrarian Change', prepared for WCED, 1985. 22/ Gear, op. cit. /... A/42/427 English Page 148 23/ J. Bandyopadhyay. 'Rehabilitation of Upland Watersheds', prepared for WCED. 1985. 24/ UNEP, 'General Assessment of Progress in the Implementation of the Plan of Action to Combat Desertification 1978-1984'. Nairobi, 1984; WCED Advisory Panel, op. cit. 25/ UNEP. op. cit. 26/ Ibid. 27/ Ibid. 28/ Ibid. 29/ Ibid. 30/ FAO, Agriculture Towards 2000 (Rome: 1981) 31/ FAO, Potential Population Supporting Capacities of Landa in the Developing World (Rome: 1982). 32/ The land capability classification developed by the U.S. Bureau of Land Management is an example of how the problem could be approached. A broader type of classification is implicit in FAO. Potential Population Supporting Capacities. 3 3/ INDERENA, Caguan-Caoueta Report (Bogota. Colombia: 1985). 34/ The agroforestry programmes implemented in India are examples of such an approach. They have been adopted enthusiastically by many farmers. 35/ FAO. World Food Report (Rome: 1985); WCED Advisory Panel, op. cit. 36/ WCED Advisory Panel, op. cit. 37/ Ibid. 38/ Ibid. 39/ FAO, World Food Report, op. cit. 40/ Data from Dag Hamraarskjold Foundation, Sweden, in Centre for Science and Environment, op. cit. 41/ FAO estimates quoted in WCED Advisory Panel, op. cit. 42/ Ibid. 43/ FAO. Food Outlook (Rome: 1986). /,,, A/42/427 English Page 14 9 CHAPTER 6 SPECIES AND ECOSYSTEMS: RESOURCES FOR DEVELOPMENT 1. Conservation of living natural resources - plant6, animals, and micro-organisms, and the non-living elements of the environment on which they depend - is crucial for development. Today, the conservation of wild living resources is on the agenda of governments; nearly 4 per cent of the Earth's land area ie managed explicitly to conserve species and ecosystems, and all but a small handful of countries have national paries. The challenge facing nations today is no longer deciding whether conservation is a good idea, but rather how it can be implemented in the national interest and within the means available in each country. I. THE PROBLEM: CHARACTER AND EXTENT 2. Species and their genetic materials promise to play an expanding role in development, and a powerful economic rationale is emerging to bolster the ethical, aesthetic, and scientific cases for preserving them. The genetic variability and gerraplasm material of species make contributions to agriculture, medicine, and industry worth many billions of dollars per year. 3. Yet scientists have intensively investigated only one in every 100 of Earth's plant species, and a far smaller proportion of animal species. If nations can ensure the survival of species, the world can look forward to new and improved foods, new drugs and medicines, and new raw materials for industry. This - the scope for species to make a fast-growing contribution to human welfare in myriad forms - is a major justification for expanded efforts to safeguard Earth's millions of species. 4. Equally important are the vital life processes carried out by nature, including stabilization of climate, protection of watersheds and soil, preservation of nurseries and breeding grounds, and so on. Conserving these processes cannot be divorced from conserving the individual species within natural ecosystems. Managing species and ecosystems together is clearly the most rational way to approach the problem. Numerous examples of workable solutions to local problems are available.1/ 5. Species and natural ecosystems make many important contributions to human welfare. Yet these very important resources are seldom being used in ways that will be able to meet the growing pressures of future high demands for both goods and services that depend upon these natural resources. /... A/42/427 English Page 150 6. There is a growing scientific consensus that species are disappearing at rates never before witnessed on the planet. But there is also controversy over those rates and the risks they entail. The world is losing precisely those species about which it knows nothing or little; they are being lost in the remotest habitats. The growing scientific concern is relatively new and the data base to support it fragile. But it firms yearly with each new field report and satellite study. 7. Many ecosystems that are rich biologically and promising in material benefits are severely threatened. Vast stocks of biological diversity are in danger of disappearing just as science is learning how to exploit genetic variability through the advances of genetic engineering. Numerous studies document this crisis with examples from tropical forests, temperate forests, mangrove forests, coral reefs, savannas, grasslands, and arid zones.2/ Although most of these studies are generalized in their documentation and few offer lists of individual species at risk or recently extinct, some present spocies-by-species details. (See Box 6-1.) 8. Habitat alteration and species extinction are not the only threat. The planet is also being impoverished by the loss of races and varieties within species. The variety of genetic riches inherent in one single species can be seen in the variability manifested in the many races of dogs, or the many specialized types of maize developed by breeders.3/ 9. Many species are losing whole populations at a rate that quickly reduces their genetic variability and thus their ability to adapt to climatic change and other forms of environmental adversity. For example, the remaining gene pools of maj*or crop plants juch as maize and rice amount to only a fraction of the genetic diversity they harboured only a few decades ago, even though the species themselves are anything but threatened. Thus there can be an important difference between loss of species and loss of gene reservoirs. 10. Some genetic variability inevitably will be lost, but all species should be safeguarded to the extent that it is technically, economically, and politically feasible. The genettc landscape is constantly changing through evolutionary processes, and there is more variability than can be expected to be protected by explicit government programmes. So in terms of genetic conservation, governments must be selective, and ask which gene reservoirs most merit a public involvement in protective measures. However, as a more general proposition, governments should enact national laws and public policies that encourage individual, community, or corporate responsibility for the protection of gene reservoirs. 11. But before science can focus on new ways to conserve species, policy makers and the general public for whom policy is made must grasp the size and the urgency of the threat. Species that are important to human welfare are not just wild plants that are relatives of agricultural crops, or animals that are harvested. Species such as earthworms, bees, and termites may be /... A/42/427 English Page 151 BOX 6-1 Some Examples of Species Extinction * In Madagascar, until about mid-century, there were 12,000 plant species and probably around 190,000 animal species, with at least 60 per cent of them endemic to the island's eastern strip of forest (that is, found nowhere else on Earth). At least 93 per cent of the original primary forest has been eliminated. Using these figures, scientists estimate that at least half the original species have already disappeared, or are on the point of doing so. * Lake Malawi in Central Africa holds over 500 cichlid fish species, 99 per cent of them endemic. The lake is only one-eighth the size of North America's Great Lakes, which feature just 173 species, fewer than 10 per cent of which are endemic. Yet Lake Malawi is threatened through pollution from industrial installations and the proposed introduction of alien species. * Western Ecuador is reputed to have once contained between 8,000 and 10,000 plant species, some 40 and 60 per cent of them endemic. Given that there are between 10 and 30 animal species for every one plant species in similar areas, western Ecuador must have contained about 200,000 species. Since 1960, almost all the forests of western Ecuador have been destroyed to make way for banana plantations, oil wells, and human settlements. The number of species thus eliminated is difficult to judge, but the total could well number 50.000 or more - all in just 25 years. * The Pantanal area of Brazil contains 110,000 square kilometres of wetlands, probably the most extensive and richest in the world. They support the largest and most diversified populations of waterfowl in South America. The area has been classified by UNESCO as 'of international importance'. Yet it suffers increasingly from agricultural expansion, dam construction, and other forms of disruptive development. Sources: W. Rauh. 'Problems of Biological Conservation in Madagascar', in D. Bramwell (ed.). Plants and Islands (London: Academic Press, 1979): D.C.N. Barel et al., 'Destruction of Fisheries in Africa's Lakes'. Nature, Vol. 315, pp. 19-20, 19B5; A.H. Gentry. 'Patterns of Neotropical Plant Species Diversity', Evolutionary Biology. Vol. 15, pp.1-84. 1982; D.A. Scott and M. Carbonell, 'A Directory of Neotropical Wetlands', IUCN, Gland. Switzerland. 1985. far more important in terms of the role they play in a healthy and productive ecosystem. It would be grim irony indeed if just as new genetic engineering techniques begin to let us peer into life's diversity and use genes more effectively to better the human condition, we looked and found this treasure sadly depleted, /... A/42/427 English Page 152 Our Atlantic forest, this mass of tropical forest that is a narrow stretch from the North to the South, has been reduced drastically. This forest is characterised by a large number of endemic species, that is species that only exist in this area, and only exist in Brazil. And consequently, it is up to us. Brazilians, to shoulder the responsibility of keeping these species in existence. Ibsen de Gusraao Camara President, Brazilian Foundation for Preservation of Nature WCED Public Hearing Sao Paulo. 28-29 Oct 1985 II. EXTINCTION PATTERNS AND TRENDS 12. Extinction has been a fact of life since life first emerged. The present few million species are the modern-day survivors of the estimated half-billion species that have ever existed. Almost all past extinctions have occurred by natural processes, but today human activities are overwhelmingly the main cause of extinctions. 13. The average duration of a species is some 5 million years. The best current estimates are that on average 900.000 species have become extinct every 1 million years during the last 200 million years, so the average 'bacltground rate' of extinction has been very roughly one in every one and one-ninth years.4/ The present human-caused rate is hundreds of times higher, and could easily be thousands of times higher.5/ We do not know. We have no accurate figures on the current rates of extinctions, as most of the species vanishing are those least documented, such as insects in tropical forests. 14. Although tropical moist forests are by far the richest biological units in terms of genetic diversity and by far the most threatened through human activities, other major ecological zones are also under pressure. Arid and semi-arid lands harbour only a very small number of species compared with tropical forests. But because of the adaptations of these species to harsh living conditions, they feature many potentially valuable biochemicals. such as the liquid wax of the jojoba shrub and the natural rubber of the guayule bush. Many of these are threatened by. among other things, the expansion of livestock herding. 15. Coral reefs, with an estimated half-million species in their 400.000 Bquare kilometres, are being depleted at rates that may leave little but degraded remnants by early next century. This would be a great loss, in that coral-reef organisms, by virtue of the 'biological warfare' they engage in to ensure living space in crowded habitats, have generated an unusual number and variety of toxins valuable in modern medicine.6/ /... A/42/427 English Page 153 16. Tropical moist forests cover only 6 per cent of the Earth's land surface but contain at least half the Earth's species (which totals 5 million at a minimum, but could be as many as 30 million). They may contain 90 per cent or even more of all species. The mature tropical forests that still exist cover only 900 million hectares, out of the 1.5-1.6 billion hectares that once stood. Between 7.6 million and 10 million hectares are eliminated outright each year, and at least a further 10 million hectares are grossly disrupted annually. ~> / But these figures come from surveys of the late 1970s, and since then deforestation rates have probably accelerated. 17. By the end of the century, or shortly thereafter, there could be little virgin tropical moist forest left outside of the Zaire Basin and the western half of Brazilian Amazonia, plus some areas such as the Guyana tract of forest in northern South America and parts of the island of New Guinea. The forests in these zones are unlikely to survive beyond a few further decades, as world demand for their produce continues to expand and as the number of forestland farmers increases. 18. If deforestation were to continue in Amazonia at present rates until the year 2000, but then halted completely (which is unlikely), about 15 per cent of plant species would be lost. Were Amazonia's forest cover to be ultimately reduced to those areas now established as parks and reserves, 66 per cent of plant species would eventually disappear, together with almost 69 per cent of bird species and similar proportions of all other major categories of species. Almost 20 per cent of the Earth's species are found in Latin American forests outside of Amazonia; another 20 per cent are found in forests of Asia and Africa outside the Zaire Basin.8/ All these forests are threatened, and if they were to disappear, the species loss could amount to hundreds of thousands. 19. Unless appropriate management measures are taken over the longer term, at least one-quarter, possibly one-third, and conceivably a still larger share of species existing today could be lost. Many experts suggest that at least 20 per cent of tropical forests should be protected, but to date well under 5 per cent has been afforded protection of any sort - and many of the tropical forest parks exist only on paper. 20. Even the most effectively managed parks and protected areas are unlikely to provide a sufficient answer. In Amazonia, if as much as half the forest were to be safeguarded in some way or another but the other half were to be eliminated or severely disrupted, there might well not be enough moisture in the Amazonian ecosystem to keep the remaining forest moist.9/ It could steadily dry up until it became more like an open woodland - with the loss of most of the species adapted to tropical moist forest conditions. 21. More widespread climatic changes are likely to emerge within the foreseeable future as the accumulation of 'greenhouse gases' in the atmosphere leads to global warming early in the next century. (See Chapter 7.) Such a change will produce /... A/42/427 English Page 154 Twenty years ago, as we decided to intensify our forest exploitation, we just thought the resource is available, and we just took it. At the time, we also thought the intensive selecting out of the trees being cut wouldn't destroy forest regeneration. Because not all of the trees were being cut. But we forgot that we don't know yet about how the tropical forest should be rehabilitated. An indigenous species such as meranti, I don't know the name in English, meranti, rami, is our high-valued wood, a timber that cannot make a shadow in its particular period of growth. And it cannot survive without that shadow. And we still didn't think about it, we just accepted the technology from the West that we have to cut, to exploit our forest. Emmy H. Dharsono NGO Network for Forest Conservation WCED Public Hearing Jakarta, 26 March 1985 considerable stress for all ecosystems, making it particularly important that natural diversity be maintained as a means of adaptation. III. SOME CAUSES OF EXTINCTION 22. The tropics, which host the greatest number and diversity of species, also host most developing nations, where population growth is fastest and poverty is most widespread. If farmers in these countries are forced to continue with extensive agriculture, which is inherently unstable and leads to constant movement, then farming will tend to spread throughout remaining wildlife environments. But if they are helped and encouraged to practise more intensive agriculture, they could make productive use of relatively limited areas, with less impact on wildlands. 23. They will need help: training, marketing support, and fertilizers, pesticides, and tools they can afford. This will require the full support of governments, including ensuring that conservation policies are designed with the benefit of agriculture foremost in mind. It may be expedient to stress the value to farmers rather than to wildlife of this programme, but in fact the destinies of the two are intertwined. Species conservation is tied to development, and the problems of both are more political than technical. 24. Population growth is a major threat to conservation efforts in many developing nations. Kenya has allocated 6 per cent of its territory as parks and reserves in order to protect its wildlife and to earn foreign exchange through tourism. But Kenya's present population of 20 million people is already /... A/42/427 English Page 155, pressing so hard on parks that protected land is steadily being lost to invading farmers. And the country's population is projected to grow fourfold in the next 40 years.10/ 25. Similar population pressures threaten parks in Ethiopia, Uganda, Zimbabwe, and other countries in which a growing but impoverished peasantry is forced to depend on a dwindling natural resource base. The prospects are bleak for parks that do not make important and recognizable contributions to national development objectives. 26. Brazil, Colombia, Indonesia. Cote d'lvoire, Kenya, Madagascar, Peru, the Philippines. Thailand, and other nations with an unusual abundance of species already suffer a massive flow of farmers from traditional homelands into virgin territories. These areas often include tropical forests, perceived by the migrants encouraged to farm there as 'free' lands available for unimpeded settlement. The people who are already living on such lands at low population densities and with only traditional rights to the land are often swept aside in the rush to develop lands that might better be left in extensively used forest. 27. Many tropical countries with large forest resources have provoked wasteful 'timber booms' by assigning harvesting rights to concessionaires for royalty, rent, and tax payments that are only a small fraction of the net commercial value of the timber harvest. They have compounded the damage caused by these incentives by offering only short-term leases, requiring concessionaires to begin harvesting at once, and adopting royalty systems that induce loggers to harvest only the best trees while doing enormous damage to the remainder. In response, logging entrepreneurs in several countries have leased virtually the entire productive forest area within a few years and have overexploited the resource with little concern for future productivity (while unwittingly opening it for clearing by slash-and-burn cultivators).^1/ 28. In Central and South America, many governments have encouraged the large-scale conversion of tropical forests to livestock ranches. Many of these ranches have proved ecologically and economically unsound, as the underlying soils are soon depleted of nutrients; weed species replace planted grasses, and pasture productivity declines abruptly. Yet tens of millions of hectares of tropical forest have been lost to such ranches, largely because governments have underwritten the conversions with large land grants, tax credits and tax holidays, subsidized loans, and other inducements.12/ 29. The promotion of tropical timber imports into certain industrial countries, through low tariffs and favourable trade incentives, combined with weak domestic forest policies in tropical countries and with high costs and disincentives to harvesting in industrial countries, also drives deforestation. Some industrial countries typically import unprocessed logs either duty-free or at minimal tariff rates. This encourages developed country industries to use logs from tropical forests /... A/42/427 English Page 156 All of us in Africa are slowly waking up to the fact the African crisis is essentially an environmental problem that has precipitated such adverse symptoms as drought. famine, desertification, overpopulation, environmental refugees, political instability, widespread poverty, etc. We are awaking to the fact that if Africa is dying it is because her environment has been plundered, overexploited, and neglected. Many of us in Africa are also waking up to the realization that no good Samaritans will cross the seas to come to save the African environment. Only we Africans can and should be sufficie sntly sensitive to the well-being of our environment. Mrs. Rahab W. Mwatha The Greenbelt Movement WCED Public Hearing Nairobi, 23 Sept 1986 rather than their own, a pattern that is reinforced by domestic restrictions on the amounts that can be cut in domestic forests. IV. ECONOMIC VALUES AT STAKE 30. Species conservation iß not only justified in economic terms. Aesthetic, ethical, cultural, and scientific considerations provide ample grounds for conservation. For those who demand an accounting, the economic values inherent in the genetic materials of species are alone enough to justify species preservation. 31. Today, industrialized nations record far greater financial benefits from wild species than do developing countries, though unrecorded benefits to people living in the tropical countryside can be considerable. But the industrial countries have the scientific and industrial capacity to convert the wild material for industrial and medical use. And they also trade a higher proportion of their agricultural produce than do developing nations. Northern crop breeders are increasingly dependent on genetic materials from wild relatives of maize and wheat, two crops that play leading roles in the international grain trade. The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates that contributions from plant genetic material lead to increases in productivity that average around 1 per cent annually, with a farm-gate value of well over $1 billion (1980 dollars).13/ 32. The U.S. maize crop suffered a severe setback in 1970. when a leaf fungus blighted croplands, causing losses to farmers worth more than $2 billion. Then fungus-resistant genetic material was found in genetic stocks that had originated in Mexico.14/ More recently, a primitive species of maize was discovered in a montane forest of south-central Mexico.15/ This wild plant is /... A/42/427 English Page 157 the Most primitive known relative of modern maize and was surviving in only three tiny patches covering a mere four hectares in an area threatened with destruction by farmers and loggers. The wild species is a perennial; all other forms of maize are annuals. Its cross-breeding with commercial varieties of maize opens up the prospect that farmers could be spared the annual expense of ploughing and sowing, since the plant would grow again yearly of its own accord. The genetic benefits of this wild plant, discovered when not more than a few thousand last'stalks remained, could total several thousand million dollars a year.16/ 33. Wild species likewise contribute to medicine. Half of all prescriptions dispensed have their origins in wild organisms.17/ The commercial value of these medicines and drugs in the United States now amounts to some $14 billion a year.18/ Worldwide, and including non-prescription materials plus pharmaceuticals, the estimated commercial value exceeds $40 billion a year.19/ 34. Industry also benefits from wildlife.20/ Wildlife-derived materials contribute gums, oils, resins, dyes, tannins, vegetable fats and waxes, insecticides, and many other compounds. Many wild plants bear oil-rich seeds that can help in the manufacture of fibres, detergents, starch, and general edibles. For instance, the Fevillea genus of rain-forest vines in western Amazonia bear seeds with such a high oil content that a hectare of such vines in an original forest could produce more oil than a hectare of commercial oil palm plantation.21/ 35. A few plant species contain hydrocarbons rather than carbohydrates.22/ Certain of these plants can flourish in areas that have been rendered useless through such activities as strip-mining. Hence land that has been degraded by extraction of hydrocarbons such as coal could be rehabilitated by growing hydrocarbons on the surface. Moreover, unlike an oil well, a 'petroleum plantation1 need never run dry. 36. The emerging field of genetic engineering, by which science devises new variations of life forms, does not render wild genes useless. In fact, this new science must be based on existing genetic material and makes such material even more valuable and useful. Extinction, according to Professor Tom Eisner of Cornell University, 'no longer means the simple loss of one volume from the library of nature. It means the loss of a loose-leaf book whose individual pages, were the species to survive, would remain available in perpetuity for selective transfer and improvement of other species.'2^/ And Professor Winston Brill of the University of Wisconsin has noted: 'We are entering an age in which genetic wealth, especially in tropical areas such as rain forests, until now a relatively inaccessible trust fund, is becoming a currency with high immediate value.l24/ 37. Genetic engineering may mean that agriculture's Green Revolution will be superseded by a 'Gene Revolution'. This technology raises hopes of eventually harvesting crops from deserts, from seawater, and from other environments that did not /•• • A/42/427 English Page 158 It will not be possible to restore the population of 'oomurasaki' - our purple emperor butterfly - to the previous level. The forest for oomurasaki requires weeding, planting of trees, and care and maintenance. The forest will be handed down to the succeeding generations. Isn't it wonderful to think that you are linked to the succeeding generations by handing down the forest where many oomurasaki fly and people enjoy themselves? It would be nice if we could develop into the hearts of the children the love and affection for nature. We hope to make the forest we are making our gift to the children who will live in the 2lst century. Mika Sakakibara Student, Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology WCED Public Hearing Tokyo. 27 Feb 1987 previously support farming. Medical researchers foresee their own Gene Revolution bringing more innovative advances during the last two decades of thi6 century than occurred during the previous 200 years. 38. Many of the nations with the least capacity for managing living resources are those richest in species; the tropics, which contain at least two-thirds of all species and a still greater proportion of threatened species, roughly coincide with the area generally referred to as the Third World. Many developing nations recognize the need to safeguard threatened species but lack the scientific skills, institutional capacities, and funds necessary for conservation. Industrial nations seeking to reap some of the economic benefits of genetic resources should support the efforts of Third World nations to conserve species; they should also seek -ways to help tropical nations — and particularly the rural people most directly involved with these species — realize some of the economic benefits of these resources. V. A NEW APPROACH; ANTICIPATE AND PREVENT 39. The historical approach of establishing national parks that are somehow isolated from the greater society has been overtaken by a new approach to conservation of species and ecosystems that can be characterized as 'anticipate and prevent.1 This involves adding a new dimension to the now-traditional and yet viable and necessary step of protected areas. Development patterns must be altered to make them more compatible with the preservation of the extremely valuable biological diversity of the planet. Altering economic and land use patterns seems to be the best long-term approach to ensuring the survival of wild species and their ecosystems. /... A/42/42 7 English Paqe 159 40. This more strategic approach deals with the problems of species depletion at their sources in development policies, anticipates the obvious results of the more destructive policies, and prevents damage now. A useful tool in promoting this approach is the preparation of National Conservation Strategies (NCS), which bring the processes of conservation and development together. Preparing an NCS involves government agencies, non-governmental organizations, private interests, and the community at large in analysis of natural resource issues and assessment of priority actions. In this way, it is hoped that sectoral interests will better perceive their interrelationships with other sectors and new potentials for conservation and development will be revealed. 41. The link between conservation and development and the need to attack the problem at the source can be seen clearly in the case of tropical forests. Sometimes it is government policy, not economic necessity, that drives the overexploitation and destruction of these resources. The direct economic and fiscal costs of this overexploitation - in addition to those of species extinction - are huge. The result has been wasteful exploitation of the tropical forests, the sacrifice of most of their timber and non-timber values.-enormous losses of potential revenue to the government, and the destruction of rich biological resources. 42. Third World governments can stem the destruction of tropical forests and other reservoirs of biological diversity while achieving economic goals. They can conserve valuable species and habitat while reducing their economic and fiscal burdens. Reforming forest revenue systems and concession terms could raise billions of dollars of additional revenues, promote more efficient, long-term forest resource use. and curtail deforestation. Governments could save themselves enormous expense and revenue loss, promote more sustainable land uses, and slow down the destruction of tropical forests by eliminating incentives for livestock ranching. 43. The link between conservation and development also requires some changes in trade patterns. This has been recognized in the establishment in 1986 of the International Tropical Timber Organization, based in Yokohama. Japan, which seeks to rationalize trade flows. It has been set up to implement the first commodity agreement that incorporates a specific conservation component. 44. Numerous other opportunities can be found to encourage both species conservation and economic productivity. Many governments maintain unrealistically low taxes on rural land, while allowing settlers to establish title to 'virgin' land by converting it to farmland. Thus wealthy landowners can keep huge, underused estates at little or no cost, while land-hungry peasants are encouraged to clear forests to establish marginal holdings. Reforms of tax and tenure systems could increase productivity on existing holdings and reduce the pressures to expand cultivation into forests and upland watersheds. /... A/42/427 English Page 160 45. Well-designed ecosystem conservation contributes to the predominant' goals of sustainable development in a number of ways. Safeguards for critical tracts of wildlands can serve also to safeguard agricultural land, for example. This is particularly true for upland forests of the tropics, which protect valley fields from floods and erosion, and waterways and irrigation systems from siltation. 46. A case in point is the Dumoga-Bone Reserve in Indonesia's northern Sulawesi, covering some 3,000 square kilometres of upland forest. It protects large populations of most of Sulawesi's endemic mammals, and many of the island's 80 endemic bird species. It also protects the Dumoga Valley Irrigation Scheme, funded by a World Bank loan, set up in the flatlands below to achieve a tripling of rice production on more then 13,000 hectares of prime agricultural land.25/ Similar examples include the Canaima National Park in Venezuela, which protects domestic and industrial water supplies for a major hydropower facility that, in turn, provides electricity to the nation's key industrial centre and its capital city. 47. * One conclusion from this connection is that governments could think of 'parks for development', insofar as parks serve the dual purpose of protection for species habitats and development processes at the same time. National efforts to anticipate and prevent the adverse consequences of development policies in any of these areas would surely yield much more for species conservation than all the measures of the past 10 years in support of park building, ranger patrols, anti-poaching units, and the other conventional forms of wildlife preservation. The 3rd World Congress on National Parks, held in Bali, Indonesia, in October 1982, brought this message from protected area managers to the policy makers of the world, demonstrating the many contributions that protected areas managed in the modern way are making to sustaining human society. VI. INTERNATIONAL ACTION FOR NATIONAL SPECIES 48. Species and their genetic resources - whatever their origins - plainly supply benefits to all human beings. Wild genetic resources from Mexico and Central America serve the needs of maize growers and consumers globally. The principal cocoa-growing nations are in West Africa, while the genetic resources on which modern cocoa plantations depend for their continued productivity are found in the forests of western Amazonia. 49. Coffee growers and drinkers depend for the health of the crop on constant supplies of new genetic material from coffee's wild relatives, principally located in Ethiopia. Brazil, which supplies wild rubber germplasm to Southeast Asia's rubber plantation, itself depends on germplasm supplies from diverse parts of the world to sustain its sugar-cane, soybean, and other leading crops. Without access to foreign sources of fresh /... A/42/427 English Page 161 germplasm year by year, the nations of Europe and North America would quickly find their agricultural output declining. 50. The Earth's endowment of species and natural ecosystems will soon be seen as assets to be conserved and managed for the benefit of all humanity. This will necessarily add the challenge of species conservation to the international political agenda. 51. At the heart of the issue lies the fact that there is often a conflict between the short-term economic interest of the individual nations and the long-term interest of sustainable development and potential economic gains of the world community at large. A major thrust in actions to conserve genetic diversity must therefore be directed at making it more economically attractive both in the short term and in the longer perspective to protect wild species and their ecosystems. Developing countries must be ensured an equitable share of the economic profit from the use of genes for commercial purposes. l. Some Current Initiatives 52. A number of international measures are already being tried. But they are limited in scope, only partially successful, and reactive in nature. UNESCO operates a clearing-house for information on natural areas and genetic resources. Its World Heritage Fund supports the management of a handful of exceptional ecosystems around the world, but all these activities teceive email budgets. UNESCO has sought to establish a global system of Biosphere Reserves representing the Earth's 200 'biotic provinces' and harbouring sample communities of species. But only one-third of the needed reserves have been established, even though instituting and operating the rest would cost only about $150 million a year.26/ 53. UN agencies such as PAO and UNEP run programmes concerned with threatened species, genetic resources, and outstanding ecosystems. But their combined activities are tiny in the face of the large needs. Among national agencies, the U.S. Agency for International Development leads the field in recognizing the value of species conservation. Legislation passed by the U.S. Congress in 1986 will make available $2.5 million a year for this purpose.27/ Again, this should be considered an important gesture compared with what has been done to date by bilateral agencies, but trifling compared with the needs and opportunities. 54. IUCN, working in close collaboration with UNEP, WWF, the World Bank, and various international technical assistance agencies, has established a 'Conservation Monitoring Centre', to provide data on species and ecosystems for any part of the world quickly and easily. This service, which is available to all. can help ensure that development projects are designed with full information available about the species and ecosystems that might be affected. Technical assistance is also available for nations, sectors, and organizations interested in establishing local data bases for their own applications. /... A/42/427 English Page 162 As deforestation progresses, it reduces the quality of life of millions of people in developing countries; their survival is threatened by the loss of the vegetation upon which they depend for their sources of household energy and many other goods. If tropical forests continue to be cleared at the current rate, at least 556 million acres (225 million hectares) will be cleared by the year 2000; if destruction of the tropical rain forests continues unabated, an estimated 10 to 20 per cent of the earth's plant and animal life will be gone by the year 2000. Reversing deforestation depends on political leadership and appropriate policy changes by developing-country governments to support community-level initiatives. The key ingredient is active participation by the millions of small farmers and landless people who daily use forests and trees to meet their needs. J. Gustave Speth President, World Resources Institute, WCED Public Hearing Sao Paulo. 28/29 Oct 1985 55. Species problems tend to be perceived largely in scientific and conservationist terms rather than as a leading economic and resource concern. Thus the issue lacks political clout. One important initiative that attempts to put conservation more squarely on the agenda of international development concerns has been the Tropical Forestry Action Plan. This collaborative effort coordinated by FAO involves the World Bank, IUCN, the World Resources Institute, and UNDP, along with numerous other collaborating institutions. The broad-based effort proposes the formulation of national forestry reviews, national forestry plans, identification of new projects, enhanced cooperation between development aid agencies at work in the forestry sector, and increased flows of technical and financial resources into forestry and related fields such as' smallholder agriculture. 56. Establishing norms and procedures with respect to resource issues is at least as important as increased funding. Precedents for such norms include the Convention on Wetlands of International Importance, the Convention on Conservation of Islands for Science (both of which safeguard prime habitats and their species), and the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species. These three precedents all help, although the first two are essentially reactive attempts to devise ■species refuges'. 2. Setting Priorities 57. A first priority is to establish the problem of disappearing species and threatened ecosystems on political agendas as a major resource issue. The World Charter for Nature, adopted by the UN in October 1982, was an important step towards this objective. /... A/42/427 English Page 163 58. Governments should investigate the prospect of agreeing to a 'Species Convention1, similar in spirit and scope to the Law of the Sea Treaty and other international conventions reflecting principles of 'universal resources'. A Species Convention, such as a draft prepared by IUCN, should articulate the concept of species and genetic variability as a common heritage. 59. Collective responsibility for the common heritage would not mean collective international rights to particular resources within nations. This approach need not interfere with concepts of national sovereignty. But it would mean that individual nations would no longer be left to rely on their own isolated efforts to protect species within their borders. 60. Such a Convention would need to be supported by a financial arrangement that would have the active backing of the community of nations. Any such arrangement, and there are several possibilities, must not only seek to ensure the conservation of genetic resources for all people, but assure that the nations that possess many of these resources obtain an equitable share of the benefits and earnings derived from their development. This would greatly encourage the conservation of species. One such arrangement might be a Trust Fund to which all nations could contribute, with those benefiting most from the use of these resources contributing an appropriate share. Governments of tropical forest nations could receive payments to support the conservation of given areas of forest, with such payments rising or falling depending on the degree to which the forests are maintained and protected.28/ 61. The sums required for effective conservation are large. Traditional-type conservation needs in tropical forests alone require outlays of $170 million a year for at least five years.29/ However, the network of protected areas that the world will need by the year 2050 must include much larger areas brought under some degree of protection and a sophisticated degree of flexibility in management techniques.30/ 62. More funds will also be required for conservation activities outside protected areas: wildlife management, ecodevelopment areas, education campaigns, and so on. Other approaches of a less expensive sort include the conservation of wild gene reservoirs of special significance through 'genetic conservation areas' in countries well endowed with biological wealth. Much of this work can be carried out by citizens' groups and other non-governmental means. 63. International development agencies - the World Bank and other major lending banks, UN agencies, and bilateral agencies -should give comprehensive and systematic attention to the problems and opportunities of species conservation. Although the international trade in wildlife and wildlife products is considerable, to date the economic values inherent in genetic variability and ecological processes have been generally disregarded. Possible measures include environmental impact analyses of development projects with particular attention to /... A/42/427 English Page 164 species' habitats and life-support systems, identification of crucial localities featuring exceptional concentrations of species with exceptional levels of endemism that face exceptional degrees of threat, and special opportunities for linking species conservation with development aid. VII. SCOPE FOR NATIONAL ACTION 64. As indicated earlier, governments need to follow a new approach in this field - one of anticipating the impact of their policies in numerous sectors and acting to prevent undesirable consequences. They should review programmes in areas such as agriculture, forestry, and settlements that serve to degrade and destroy species' habitats. Governments should determine how many more protected areas are needed, especially in the spirit of how such areas can contribute to national development objectives, and make further provision for protection of gene reservoirs (for instance, primitive cultivated varieties) that may not normally be preserved through conventional protected areas. 65. In addition, governments need to reinforce and expand existing strategies. Urgent needs include better wildlife and protected-area management, more protected areas of a non-conventional type (such as the ecological stations that are proving reasonably successful in Brazil), more game cropping and ranching projects (such as the crocodile schemes in India, Papua New Guinea, Thailand, and Zimbabwe), more promotion of wildlife-based tourism, and stronger anti-poaching measures (eveo though relatively few species are threatened by poaching, compared with the vast numbers threatened by habitat loss). National Conservation Strategies, such as those already prepared in over 25 countries, can be important tools for coordinating conservation and development programmes. 66. Other measures governments could take to confront the crisis of disappearing species, recognizing that it constitutes a major resource and development challenge, include consideration of species conservation needs and opportunities in land use planning and the explicit incorporation of their genetic resource stocks into national accounting systems. This could entail establishing a natural-resource accounting system that directs particular attention to species as high-value yet little-appreciated resources. Finally, they should support and expand programmes of public education to ensure that the species question receives the attention it deserves throughout the entire population. 67. Every nation has only limited resources at its disposal for dealing with conservation priorities. The dilemma is how to use these resources most effectively. Cooperation with neighbouring nations sharing species and ecosystems can help streamline programmes as well as share expenses for regional initiatives. Explicit efforts to save particular species will be possible for only relatively few of the more spectacular or important ones. Agonizing as it will be to make such choices, planners need to /... A/42/42 7 English Page 165 The world is unfortunately not what we would like it to be. The problems are many and great. Actually, they can only be solved with cooperation and quick~wittedness. I represent an organization called 'Nature and Youth1. I know that I have full support among our members when I say that we are worried about the future if drastic changes do not take place, concerning the world's way of treating our essential condition, nature. We who work with youth, and are youth ourselves in Norway today, know very well how the destroying of nature leads to an apathetic fear among youth concerning their future and how it will turn out. It is of great importance that common people get the chance to take part in deciding how nature should be treated. Frederic Hauge Nature and Youth WCED Public Hearing Oslo, 24-25 June 1985 make conservation strategies as systematically selective as possible. No one cares for the prospect of consigning threatened species to oblivion. But insofar as choices are already being made, unwittingly, they should be made with selective discretion that takes into account the impact of the extinction of a species upon the biosphere or on the integrity of a given ecosystem. 68. But even though public effort may be concentrated on a few species, all species are important and deserve some degree of attention; this might take the form of tax credits to farmers willing to maintain primitive cultivars, an end to incentives to clear virgin forest, the promotion of research attention from local universities, and the preparation of basic inventories of native flora and fauna by national institutions. VIII. THE NEED FOR ACTION 69. There are numerous signs that the loss of species and their ecosystems is being taken seriously as a phenomenon that carries practical implications for people all around the world, now and for generations to come. 70. The recent rise in public concern can be seen in such developments as the growth in Kenya's Mildlife Clubß. now numbering more than 1.500 school clubs with around 100.000 members.*1/ A parallel development in conservation education has occurred in Zambia. In Indonesia, some 400 conservation groups have joined together under the banner of the Indonesian Environmental Forum and exert strong political influence.32/ In the United States, membership of the Audubon Society reached 3B5.0OO in 1985.33/ In the Soviet Union, nature clubs have /... A/42/427 English Page 166 over 35 million members.34/ All of these indicate that the public puts a value on nature that is beyond the normal economic imperatives. 71. In response to this popular concern, governments have been moving to help species threatened within their borders, primarily through the establishment of additional protected areas. Today, the worldwide network of protected areas totals more than 4 million square kilometres, roughly equivalent to the size of most of the countries of Western Europe combined, or twice the size of Indonesia. In terms of continental coverage, protected areas in Europe (outside the USSR) amounted by 1985 to 3.9 per cent of territory: in the USSR, to 2.5 per cent; in North America, to 8.1 per cent; in South America, to 6.1 per cent; in Africa, to 6.5 per cent; and in Asia (outside the USSR) and Australia, to 4.3 per cent each.35/ 72. Since 1970, the networks have expanded in extent by more than 80 per cent, around two-thirds of which are in the Third World. But a great deal more remains to be done; a consensus of professional opinion suggests that the total expanse of protected areas needs to be at least tripled if it is to constitute a representative sample of Earth's ecosystems.36/ 73. There Í6 still time to save species and their ecosystems. It is an indispensable prerequisite for sustainable development. Our failure to do so will not be forgiven by future generations. Footnotes J. McNeely and K. Miller (eds.). National Parks Conservation and Development; The Role of Protected Areas in Sustaining Society. Proceedings of the World Congress on National Parks (Washington, DC: Smithsonian Institution Press, 1984). W.B. Banage. 'Policies for the Maintenance of Biological Diversity', prepared for WCED, 1986; P.R. Ehrlich and A.H. Ehrlich. Extinction (New York: Random House. 1981); D. Western (ed.). Conservation 2100. Proceedings of Wildlife Conservation International and New York Zoological Society Conference, 21-24 October 1986 (New York: Zoological Society, in press); N. Myers, 'Tropical Deforestation and Species Extinctions, The Latest News', Futures. October 1985; R. Lewin, 'A Mass Extinction Without Asteroids', Science. 3 October 1986; P.H. Raven. 'Statement from Meeting of IUCN/WWF Plant Advisory Group', Las Palmas. Canary Islands. 24-25 November 1985; M.E. Soule (ed.). Conservation Biology: Science of Scarcity and Diversity (Sunderland, Mass.: Sinauer Associates. 1986); E.O. Wilson (ed.). Biodiversity. Proceedings of National Forum held by National Academy of Sciences and Smithsonian Institution, 21-24 September 1986 (Washington, DC: National Academy Press, forthcoming). /... A/42/427 English Page 167 3/ O.H. Frankel and M.E. Soule. Conservation and Evolution (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1981): CM. Schonewald-Cox et al. (eds.). Genetics and Conservation (Menlo Park. Calif.: Benjamin/Cummings Publishing Company Inc., 1983). 4/ D.D. Raup. 'Biological Extinction in Earth History'. Science. 28 March 1986. 5/ Wilson, op. cit.; Ehrlich and Ehrlich, op. cit.; Myers. 'The Latest News', op. cit.; Soule. op. cit. 6/ G.D. Ruggieri and N.D. Rosenberg, The Healing Sea (New York: Dodd Mead and Co., 1978). 7/ FAO/UNEP. Tropical Forest Resources. Forestry Paper No. 30 (Rome: 1982); J.M. Melillo et al.. 'A Comparison of Recent Estimates of Disturbance in Tropical Forests ' . Environmental Conservation. Spring 1985; N. Myers. The Primary Source (New York: W.W. Norton, 19B4); Myers 'The Latest News', op. cit.; J. Molofsky et al., 'A Comparison of Tropical Forest Surveys', Carbon Dioxide Program. U.S. Department of Energy. Washington DC. 1986. 8/ D. Simberloff, 'Are We On the Verge of a Mass Extinction in Tropical Rain Forests?' in D.K. Elliott (ed.). Dynamics of Extinction (Chicester. UK: John Wiley & Sons. 1986); Raven, op. cit. 9/ E. Salati and P.B. Vose, 'Amazon Basin: A System in Equilibrium1. Science. 13 July 1984. 10/ Department of International Economic and Social Affairs, World Population Prospects: Estimates and Projections as Assessed in 1984 (New York: UN. 1986). 11/ R. Repetto. 'Creating Incentives for Sustainable Forestry Development', World Resources Institute. Washington. DC. August 1985. 12/ Ibid. 13/ Agricultural Research Service, Introduction. Classification. Maintenance. Evaluation, and Documentation of Plant Germplasm (Washington. DC: U.S. Department of Agriculture. 19B5). 14/ L.A. Tatum. 'The Southern Corn Leaf Blight Epidemic, Science. Vol. 171. pp. 1113-16. 1971. 15/ H.H. Iltis et al.. 'Zea diploperennis (Graraineae). a New Teosinte from Mexico'. Science. 12 January 1979. 16/ A.C. Fisher. 'Economic Analysis and the Extinction of Species'. Department of Energy and Resources. University of California. Berkeley. 1982. /... A/42/427 English Page 168 17/ N.R. Farnsworth and D.D. Soejarto. 'Potential Consequence of Plant Extinction in the United States on the Current and Future Availability of Prescription Drugs'. Economic Botany. Vol. 39. pp. 231-40. 1985. 18/ N. Myers, A Wealth of Wild Species (Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press. 1983). 19/ Ibid. 20/ M.L. Oldfield, 'The Value of Conserving Genetic Resources'. National Park Service. U.S. Department of the Interior. Washington. DC. 1984: L.H. Princen. 'New Crop Development for Industrial Oils', Journal of the American Oil Chemists' Society. Vol. 56. pp. 845-48, 1979. 21/ A.H. Gentry and R. Wettach, 'Fevillea - A New Oilseed from Amazonian Peru', Economic Botany, Vol. 40, pp. 177-85, 1986. 22/ M. Calvin. 'Hydrocarbons from Plants: Analytical Methods and Observations'. Naturwissenschaften. Vol. 67, pp. 525-33. 1980; C.W. Hinman et al., 'Five Potential New Crops for Arid Lands', Environmental Conservation. Winter 1985. 23/ T. Eisner. 'Chemicals. Genes, and the Loss of Species'. Nature Conservancy News. Vol. 33. No. 6, pp. 23-24, 1983. 24/ W.J. Brill. 'Nitrogen Fixation: Basic to Applied', American Scientist. Vol. 67, pp. 458-65. 1979. 25/ McNeely and Miller, op. cit. 26/ UNESCO. International Coordinating Council of Man and the Biosphere. MAB Report Series No. 58 (Paris: 1985). 27/ Letter to N. Myer6, Consultant in Environment and Development, from Senator W. Roth (R-Del.), U.S. Congress, Washington, DC. 28/ R.A. Sedjo, Testimony before the Subcommittee on Human Right6 and International Organizations. Foreign Affairs Committee, U.S. House of Representatives, 12 September 1984. 29/ International Task Force. Tropical Forests: A Call for Action (Washington, DC: World Resources Institute, 1985). 30/ R.L. Peters and J.D.S. Darling, 'The Greenhouse Effect of Nature Reserves', Bioscience, Vol. 35. pp. 707-17. 1984. 31/ 'Kenya's Wildlife Clubs' (Brochure), Ed Wilson, WWF Regional Office for East and Central Africa, personal communication, 3 February 1987. 32/ Centre for Environmental Studies, Environmental NGO's in Developing Countries (Copenhagen: 1985). 33/ Membership figure from Audubon circulation in Ulrich's Periodicals (New York: R.W. Bowker, 1985). /... A/4Ü/4Ü7 Ku.)] j.it, I'.i'l»- )fi4 34/ Prof. Yazan. IUCN Vice-President and Regional Counsellor. IUCN Bulletin. Vol. 17. Noa. 7-9. 35/ Llat of National Parfca and Equivalent Retervee IIUCN: 1985). 36/ McNaely and Miller, op. cit. Kii'l 1 i'ih CHAPTER 7 ENERGY: CHOICES POR ENVIRONMENT AND DEVELOPMENT 1. Energy is necessary for daily survival. Future development crucially depends on its long-term availability in increasing quantities from sources that are dependable, Bafe, and environmentally sound. At present, no single source or mix of sources is at hand to meet this future need. 2. Concern about a dependable future for energy is only natural since energy provides 'essential services' for human life - heat for warmth, cooking, and manufacturing, or power for transport and mechanical work. At present, the energy to provide these services comes from fuels - oil, gas. coal, nuclear, wood, and other primary sources (solar, wind, or water power) - that are all useless until they are converted into the energy-services needed, by machines or other kinds of end-use equipment, such as stoves, turbines, or motors. In many countries worldwide, a lot of primary energy is wasted because of the inefficient design or running of the equipment used to convert it into tue services required; though there is an encouraging growth in awareness of energy conservation and efficiency. 3. Today's primary sources of energy are mainly non-renewable: natural gas. oil. coal, peat, and conventional nuclear power. There are also renewable sources, including wood, plants, dung, falling water, geothermal sources, solar, tidal, wind, and wive energy, as well as human and animal muscle-power. Nuclear reactors that produce their own fuel ('breeders') and eventually fusion reactors are also in this category. In theory, all the various energy sources can contribute to the future energy mix worldwide. But each has its own economic, health, and environmental costs, benefitc. and risks - factors that interact strongly with other governmental and global priorities. Choices must be made, but in the certain knowledge that choosing an energy strategy inevitably means choosing an environmental strategy. 4. Patterns and changes C energy use today are already dictating patterns well into the next century. We approach this question from the standpoint of eustainabi1ity The key elements of sustainability that have to be reconciled ate: * sufficient growth of energy supplies to meet human needs (which means accommodating a minimum of 3 per cent per capita income growth in developing countries); * energy efficiency and conservation measures, such that waste of primary resources is minimized; * public health, recognizing the problems of risks to safety inherent in energy sources; and * protection of the biosphere and prevention of more localized forms of pollution. A/42/427 ttnql iah IMqp I7i 5. The period ahead must be regarded as transitional from an era in which energy has been used in an unsustainable manner. A generally acceptable pathway to a safe and sustainable energy future has not yet been found. We do not bellevy that these dilemmas have yet been addressed by the international community with a sufficient sense of urgency and in a global perspective. I. ENERGY, ECONOMY. AND ENVIRONMENT 6. The growth or enargy demand in response to industrialization, urbanization, and societal affluence has led to an extremely uneven global distribution of primary energy consumption.l/ The consumption of erergy per person in industrial market economies, for exampl«. is more than 60 times greater than in sub-Saharan Africa. (See Table 7-1.) And about a quarter of the world's population consumes three-quarters of the world's primary energy. 7. In 19R0. global energy consumption stood at around 10TW.2/ (See Box 7-1.) if per capita use remained at the same levels as today, by 2025 a global population of 6.2 billion3/ would need about 14TW (over 4TW in developing and over 9TW in industrial countries) - an increase of 40 per cent over 1980. But if energy consumption per head became uniform worldwide at current industrial country levels, by 2025 that same global population would require about 55TW. 6. Neither the 'low' nor the 'high* figure is likely to prove realistic, but they give a rough idea of the range within which energy futures could move, at least hypothetically. Many other scenarios can be generated in-between, some of which assume an improved energy base for the developing world. For instance, if tne average euergy consumption in the low- and middle-income economies trebled and doubled, respectively, and if consumption in the high-income oil-exporting and industrial market and non-market countries remained the same as today, then the two groups would be consuming about the same amounts of energy. The low- and middle-income categories would need 10.5TW and the three 'high' categories would use 9.3TW - toťlling 20TW globally, assuming that primary energy is used at the same levels of efficiency as today. BOX 7 1 Energy Unite A variety of units are used to measure energy production and use in physical terms. This chapter useň the kilowatt (kW); the Gigawatt (GW), which is equal to 1 million kW; and the Terawatt (TW), which is equal to 1 billion kixowatts. One kilowatt a thousand watts of energy - if emitted continuously for a year is lkW year. Consuming 1 kW year/year is equivalent to the energy liberated by burning 1,050 kilogrammes - approximately 1 ton - of coal annually. Thus a TM year is equal to approximately 1 billion tons of coal. Throughout the chapter, TW years/year is written as TW. A/42/427 Pago 172 TABLE 7 - 1 Global Primary Energy Consumption Per Capita. 1984 World Bark GNP Per Capita Energy Mid-1984 Total GNP Economy Consumption Population Consumption Category (1984 dollars) (kW per (million) (TW) 2.390 0.99 258 0.02 1.188 1.27 691 0.39 497 0.87 148 0.04 5.17 19 0.10 7.01 733 5.14 East European -- 6.27 389 2.44 Non-Market Economies Low Income 260 Sub-Saharan 210 Africa Middle Income 1 ,250 Lower-middle 740 Upper-middle 1 ,950 Sub-Saharan • 6P0 Africa High-Income 11 250 Oil Exporters Industrial 11 ,430 Market Economies (kW per capita"/) 0 0 41 08 1 0 1 0 07 57 76 25 World -- 2.11 / 4.718 9.94 */ kW per capita is kW years/year per capita. **/ Population-weighted average energy consumption (kW/capita) for first three main categories is 0.654 and for industrial market and East European categories is 6.76. Source: Based on World Bank. World Development Report 198^ (New York: Oxford University Press, 1986). 9. How practical are any of these scenarios? Energy analysts have conducted many studies of global energy futures to the years 2020-2030.*/ Such studies do not provide forecasts of future energy needs, but they explore how various technical, economic, and environmental factors may interact with supply and demand. Two of these are reviewed in Box 7-2. though a much wider range of scenarios - from 5TW up to 63TW - aru available. Ku-11 I'll ľ.I.).' ľ- I ! I BOX 7-2 Two Indicative Energy Scenarios Case A-High Scenario By the year 2030. a 3bTW future would involve producing 1.6 tines aE much oil. 3.4 times as much natural gas, and nearly S times as much coal as in I960. This increase in fossil fuel use implies bringing the equivalent of a new Alaska pipeline into production every one to two years. Nuclear capacity would have to be increased 30 times over i960 levels - equivalent to installing a new nuclear power station generating 1-gigawatt of electricity every two to four days. This 3STW scenario is still well below the 55TW future that assuues today's levels of anergy consumption per capita in industrial countries are achieved in all countries. Case B-Low Scenario Taking the 11.2TM scenario as a highly optimistic example of a strong conservation strategy. 2020 energy demand in developing and industrial countries is quoted as 7.3TW and 3.9TW respectively, as compared with 3.3TW and 7 . OTW in 1980. This would mean a Baving of 3.1TW in industrial countries by 2020 and an additional requirement of 4.OTW in developing countries. Even if developing countries were able to acquire the liberated primary resource, they would still be left with a shortfall of 0.9TW in primary supply. Such a deficit is likely to be much greater (possibly two to three times), given the extreme level of efficiency required for this scenario, which is unlikely to be realized by most governments. In 1980. the following breakdown of primary supply was quoted: oil. 4.2TW; coal. 2.4; gas, 1.7; renewables. 1.7; and nuclear. 0.2. ie question is - where will the shortfall in primary energy supply come from? This rough calculation serves to illustrate that the postulated average growth of around 30 per cent per capita in primary consumption in developing countries will still require considerable amounts of primary supply even un.-ler extremely efficient energy usage regimes. Sources: The 3STW scenario was originated in Energy Systems Group of the International Institute for Applied Systems Ana lysis. Energy in a Finite World - . Global Systems Analysis. (Cambridge. Mass.: Ballinger. 1981); all other calc il«tions are from J. Golemberg et al.. 'An End-UBe Oriented Gloual Energy Strategy1. Annual Review of Energy. Vol. 10. 1985. A/4.V 4.' 7 Ki\/m. i l\n<|l i'-.li Energy is. put most Bimply. the fundamental unit of the physical world. As such, we cannot conceive of development without chann-.B in the extent or the nature of energy flows. And because it is eo fundamental, every one of those changes of flows ha6 environmental implications. The implications of ..his are profjund. It means that there Í6 no such thing as a simple energy choice. They are all complex. And they all involve trad*- off6. However, some of the choices and some of the tradeoffs appear to be unequivocally better than others, in the sense that they offer more development and less environmental damago. David Brooks Friends of the Earth WCED Public Hearings Ottawa. 26-27 May 1986 i greater extent on fossil fuels. A near doubling of global primary energy consuaption will be difficult without encountering severe economic, social, and environmental constraints. 13. This raises the desirability of a lower energy future, where GDP growth is not constrained but where investment effort is switched away from building more primary supply sources and put into the development and supply of highly efficient fuel-saving end use equipment. In this way. the energy services needed by society could be supplied at much reduced levels of primary energy production. Cane B in Box 7-2 allows for a 50 per cent fall in per capita primary energy consumption in industrial countries and a 30 per cent increase in developing countries.18/ By using the most energy-efficient technologies and process.6 now available in all sectors of the economy, annual global per capita GDP growth rates of around 3 per cent can be achieved. This growth is at least as great as that regarded in this report as a minimum for reasonable development. But this path would require huge structural change« to allow market penetration of efficient technologies, and it seems unlikely to be fully realizable by most governments during the next 40 years. 14. The crucial point about these lower, energy-efficient futures is not whether they are perfectly realizable in their proposed time frames. Fundamental political and institutional shifts are requi'd to restructure investment potential in order to move along these lower, more energy efficient paths. 15. The Commission believes that there is no other realistic option open to the world for the 21st century. The ideas behind tnese lower scenarios are not fanciful. Energy efficiency has already shown cost-effective results. In many industrial countries, the primary energy required to produce a unit of GDP has fallen by as much as a quarter or even a third over the last 13 years, much of it from implement i r-j energy efficiency measures.19/ Properly managed, efficiency measures could allow industrial nations to stabilize their primary energy consumption I'Mi) I li'.tl l',t<|<' I >'< by the turn of the ce> tury. They would also enable developing countries to achieve higher levels of growth with much reduced levels of investment, foreiqn debt, and environmental damage. But by the early decades of the 21st century they will not alleviate the ultimate need for substantial new energy supplies globally. II. POSSIL FUELS: THE CONTINUING DILEMMA 16. Many forecasts of recoverable oil reserves and resources suggest that oil production will level off by the early decades oř the next century and then gradually fall during a period of reduced supplies and higher prices. Gas supplies should last over 200 years and coal about 3.000 years at present rates of use. These estimates persuade many analysts that the world should immediately embark on a vigorous oil conservation policy. 17. In terms of pollution risks, gas is by far the cleanest fuel, with oil next and coal a poor third. But they all pose three interrelated atmospheric poll\vion problems: global warming.20/ urban industrial air pollution.71' and acidification of the environment.22/ some of the wealthier industrial countries may possess the economic capacity to cope with such threats. Most developing countries do not. 18. These problems are becoming more widespread particularly in tropical and subtropical regions, but their economic, social, and political repercussions are as yet not fully appreciated by society. With the exception of C02. air pollutants can be removed from fossil fuel combustion processes at costs usually below the costs of damage caused by pollution.23/ However, the risks of global warming make heavy future reliance upon fossil fuels problematic. 1. Managing Climatic change 19. The burning of fossil fuels and. to a lesser extent, the loss of vegetative cover, particularly forests, through urban-industrial growth increase the accumulation of C02 in the atmosphere. The pre-industrial concentration was about 280 parts of carbon dioxide per million parts of air by volume. This concentration reached 340 in 1980 and is expected to double to 560 between the middle and the end of the next century.24/ Other gases also play an important role in this 'greenhouse effect', whereby solar radiation is trapped near the ground, warming the globe and changing the climate. 20. After reviewing the latest evidence on the greenhouse effect in October 1985 at a meeting in Villach. Austria, organized by the WMO. UNEP. and ICSU, scientists from 29 industrialized and developing countries concluded that climate change must be considered a 'plausible and serious probability. They further concluded that: 'Many important economic and social decisions are being made today on ... major water resource management activities such as irrigation and hydropower; drought relief; agricultural land use; structural designs and coastal A <1.' ' -1.' / I:m?ir^ developed, more immediate policy measures can and should be adopted. The most urgent are those required to in~-^ase and extend the recent steady gains in energy efficiency - .- to shift the energy mix more towards renewable*. Carboa dioxide output globally could be significantly reduced by energy efficiency measures without any reduction of the tempo of GDP growth.31/ These measures would also serve to abate other emissions and thus reduce acidification and urban-industrial air pollution. Gaseous fuels produce less carboa dioxida per unit of energy output than oil or coal and should be promoted, especially tor cooking a.id ether domestic uses . 26. Gases other than carbon dioxide are thought to be responsible for about one-third of present global warming, and it is estimated that they will cause about half the problem around 2030.32/ some of these, notably chlorofluorocarbone used as aerosols, refrigeration chemicals, and in the manufacture of plastics, may be more easily controlled than C02■ These. although not strictly energy-related, will have a decisive influence on policies for managing carbon dioxide emissions. 27. Apart from their climatic effect, chlorofluorocarbons are responsible to a large extent for damage to the earth's stratospheric ozone.3 3/ The chemical industry should make «very effort to find replacements, and governments should require the use of such replacements when found (as some nations have outlawed the use of these chemicals as aerosols). Governments should ratify the existing ozone convention and develop protocols for the limitation of chlorofluorocarbon emissions, and syttenatically monitor and report implementation. A/4Z/42/ KiKjl iüh ľ.í'Jľ 179 28. A lot of policy development worK Í6 needed. Thi6 should proceed hand in hand with accelerated research to reduce remaining scientific uncertainties. Nations urgently need to formulate and agree upon management policies for all environmentally reactive chemicals released into the atmosphere by human activities, particularly those that can influence the radiation balance on earth. Governments should initiate discussions leading to a convention on thi6 matter. 29. If a convention on chemical containment policieb cannot be implemented rapidly, governments should develop contingency strategies and planE for adaptation to climatic change. In either case, WMO. UNEP, WHO. ICSU. and other relevant international and national booies ßhould be encouraged to coordinate and accelerate their programmes to develop a carefull, integrated strategy of research, monitoring, and assessment of the likely impacts on climate, health, and environment of all environmentally reactive chemicals released into the atmosphere in significant quantities. 2. Reducing Urban-Industrjal Air Pollution 30. The past three decades of generally rapid growth worldwide have seen dramatic increases in fuel consumption for heating and cooling, automobile transport, industrial activities, and electricity generation. Concern over the effects of increasing air pollution in the late 1960s resulted in the development of curative measures, including air-quality criteria, standards, and add-on control technologies that can remove pollutants cost-effectively. All these greatly reduced emissions of some of the principal pollutants and cleaned air over many cities. Despite this, air pollution has today reached serious levels in the cities of ssveral industrial and newly industrialized countries as well as in those of most developing countries, which in some - ases are by now the world's most polluted urban areas. 31. The fossil fuel emissions of principal cone«rn in terms of urban pollution, whether from stationary or mobil sources, include sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, various volatile organic compounds, fly ash, and other suspended particles. They can injure huiuan health and the environment, bringing increased respiratory complaints, some potentially fatal. But Ĺhese pollutants can be contained so as to protect human health aiť* . fc environment and all governments should take cteps to achieve ,■ ^ptable levels of air quality. 32 Governments can ect»iblish and monitor air quality goals and objectives, allowable «twospheric loadings, and related emission criteria or standards, as some successfully do already. Regional organizations can support this effort. Multilateral and bilateral development assistance agencies and development banks should encourage jovernments to require that the most energy-efficient technology be used when industries and energy utilities plan to build n«w or extend existing facilities. A '-LI 4 7 Ku.I 1 ii-h l'.i'lf MIO 3. Damage fro« the Lonq-Ranqe Transport of Air Pollution 33. Measures taken by many industrialized countri«e in the 1970s to control urban a'.J industrial air pollution (high chimney stacks, for example) greatly improved the quality of the air in the cities concerned. However, it quite unintentionally sent increasing amounts of pollution across national boundaries in Europe and North America, contributing to the acidification of distant environments and creating new pollution problems. This was manifest in growing damage to lakes, soils, and communities of plants and animals.34/ Failure to control automobile pollution in some regions has seriously contributed to the problem. 34. Thus atmospheric pollution, once perceived only ai a local urban-industrial problem involving people's health, is now also seen as a much more complex issue encompassing buildings, »cosystems. and maybe even public health over vast regions. During transport in the atmosphere, emissions of sulphur and nitrogen oxides und volatile hydrocarbons are transformed into sulphuric and nitric acids, ammonium salts, and ozone. They fall to the ground, sometimes many hundreds or thousands of kilometres from their origins, as dry particleB or in rain, snow, frost, fog. and dew. Few studied of their socio-economic costs are available, but these demonstrate that they are quite large and suggest that they are growing rapidly.35/ They damage vegetation, contribute fo land and water pollution, and corrode buildings, metallic structures and vehicles, causing billions of dollars in damage annually. 35. Damage first became evident in Scandinavia in the 1960s. Several thousand lakes in Europe, particularly in southern Scand^ navia36/. arid several hundreds in North America37/ have registered a steady increase in acidity levels to the point where their natural fish populations have declined or died out. The same acids enter the soil and groundwater, increasing corrosion of drinking water piping in Scandinavia.38/ 36. The circumstantial evidence indicating the need for action on the sources of acid precipitation Í6 mounting with a speed that gives scientists and governments little time to assess it scientifically. Som^ of the greatest observed damage has been reported in Central Europe, which is currently receiving more than one gramme of sulphur on every Bquare metre of ground each year, at least five times greater than natural background.39' There was little evidence of tree damage in Europe in 1970. In 1962. the Federal Republic of Germany reported visible leaf damage in its forest plot samples nationwide, amounting in 1983 to 34 per cent, and rising in 1985 to 50 per cent.40/ Sweden reported light to moderate damage in 30 per cent of its forestß, and various reports from other countries in Eastern and Western Europe are extremely disquieting. So far an estimated 14 per cent of ali European forestland is affected.41/ 37. The evidence is not all in. but many reports show boíIb in parts of Europe becoming acid throughout the tree rooting layers,*2/ particularly nut rient-poor ßoilß euch as those oi Southern Sweden43/ The precise damage mechanisms arc not i-: c i» 11 iüti ľ,iM" I'M A forest is an ecosystem that exists under certein environmental conditions, and if you change the conditions, the system is going to change. it ie a very difficult task for ecologistu to foräeee what charges are going to be because the systems are sc «tiiormously complex. The direct, causes behind an individual tree dying can be far removed from U.e primary pressure that brought the whole system into equilibrium. One time it might be ozone, another time it may be S02. a third time it may be aluminium poisoning. I can express myself by an analogy: If there is famine, there are relatively few people who die directly from starvation: they die from dysentery or various infectious diseases. And in such a situation, it is not of very much help to stnd medicine instead of food. That meanE that in this situation, it is necessary to address the primary pressures against the ecosystem. Alf J ohne Is Swedish Museum of Natural History WCED Public Hearing Oslo. 24-2S June 198S known, but all theories include an air pollution component. Root damage**/ and leaf < amage appear to interact affooting the ability of the trees both to take up water from the soil and to retain it in the foliage, so that they become particularly vulnerable to dry spells and other stresses. Europe may be experiencing an immense change to irreversible acidification, the remedial costs of which could be beyond economic reach.**»/ (See Box 7-3.) Although there are many options for reducing sulphur, nitrogen, and hydrocarbon emissions, no single pollutant control strategy is likely to be effective in dealing with forest decline. It will require a total integrated mix of strategies and technologies to improve air quality, tailored for each region. 38. Evidence of local air pollution and acidification in Japan and also in the newly industrialized countries of Asia. Africa, and Latin America is beginning to emerge. China and the Republic of Korea seem particularly vulnerable, as do Brazil. Colombia. Ecuador, and Venezuela. So little is known about the likely environmental loading of sulphur and nitrogen in these regions and about the acid-neutral izing capacity of tropical lakes and forest soils that a comprehensive programme of investigation uhould be formulated without delay.*6/ 39. Where actual or potential threats from acidification exist, governments should map sensitive areas, aeeees forest damage annially and soil impoverishment every five years according to regionally agreed protocols, and publish the findingB. They i:ii>)1 isti ''•»'ľ- IH.' BOX 7 3 The Damage and Control Costs of Air Pollution It is very difficult to quantify damage control costs, not least because cost figures are highly dependent on the control strategy assumed. However, in the eastern United States, it has been estimated that halving the remaining sulphur dioxide emissions from existing sources would cost $5 billion a year, increasing present electricity r.«teB by 2-3 per cent. If nitrogen oxides are figured in. the additional costs might be as high as $6 billion a year. Materials corrosion damage alone is estimated to cost $7 billion annually in 17 states in the eastern United states. Estimate« of the annual costs of securing a 55 to 65 per c«nt reduction in the remaining sulphur emissions in the countries of th« European Economic Community between 1980 and 2000 range from $4.6 billion to $6.7 billion (1982 dollars) p«r y«ar. Controls on stationary boilers to r«duc« nitrogen levels by only 10 per cent annually by he year 2000 rang« between $100.000 and $400.000 (1982 dollars). These figures translate into a one-time increase of about 6 per cant in th« price of electrical power to the consumer. Studies place damage costs due to material and fish losses alon« at $3 billion a year, while damage to crops, forests, and health are estimated to exceed $10 billion per year. Technologies for drastically reducing oxides of nitrogen and hydrocarbons from automobile exhaust gases are r«adily available and routinely used in North America and Japi-n. but not in Europe. Japanese laboratory studies indicate that air pollution and acid rain can reduce some wheat and rice crop production, perhaps by as much as 30 per cent. Sources: U.S. Congress. Office of Technology Assessment. Acid Rain and Transported Air Pollutants: Implications for Public Policy (Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1985); U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Acid Deposition Assessment (Washington. DC: 1985); I.M. Torrens. 'Acid Rain and Air Pollution: A Problem of Industrialization1, prepared for WCED, 1985; P. Mandelbaum. Acid Rain - Economic Assessment (New York: Plenum Press. 1985); M. Hashimoto. 'National Air Quality Management Policy of Japan', prepared for WCED. 1985; OECD. The State of th« Environ««nt (Pari«: 1985). I\/A2/A21 Kri'l I isti l'ic)(. KM should support iransboundary monitoring of pollution being carried out by agencies in their region and, where there is no such agency, create one or give the job to any suitable regional body. Governments in many regions could gain significantly from early agreement to prevent transboundary air pollution and the enormous damage to their economic base now being experienced in Europe and North America. Even though the exact causes of the damage are hard to prove, reduction strategies are certainly within reach and economic. They could be viewed as a cheap insurance policy compared with the vast amount of potential damage these strategies avoid. III. NUCLEAR ENERGY: UNSOLVED PROBLEMS 1. The Peaceful Atom 40. In the years following the Second World War. the nuclear knowledge that under military control had led to the production of atomic weapons was redeployed for peaceful 'energy' purposes by civilian technologists. Several benefits were obvious at the time. 41. It was also realized that no energy source would ever be risk-free. There was the danger of nuclear war, the spread of atomic weapons, and nuclear terrorism. But intensive international cooperation and a number of negotiated agreements suggested that these dangers could be ivoided. For instance, the Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), drafted in its final form in 1969. included a promise by signatory governments possessing nuclear weapons and expertise to pursue and undertake nuclear disarmament a ns is one of the most serious threats to world peace. It is in the interest of all nations to prevent proliferation of nuclear weapons. All nations therefore should contribute to the development of a viable non-proliferation regime. The nuclear - weapon states must deliver on their promise to reduce the number and ultimately A/42/4^7 l\»q.> IH4 nu The health risks for the development of peaceful usee of ..»clear technology, including nuclear electricity, are very 6mall when compared with the benefits from the use of nuclear radiation for medical diagnosis treatment. The sate application of nuclear radiation technology promises many benefits in environmental clean-up and in increasing world food supplies by eliminating spoilage. With a recent jnd very notable exception, the international cooperation that nas marked the development of nuclear power technology provides an excellent model by which to address common environmental and ethical problems posed by the development of other technologies. Ian Wilson Vice-Pre3 7 i-: 11 ■ 11 i;ti I'.nM- 1111, 46. All these factors vary widely depending on differing institutional, legal, and financial arrangemente in differnnt countries. Cost generalizations and comparisons are therefore unhelpful or misleading. However, costs associated with several of these factors have increased more rapidly for nuclear stations during the last 5-10 years, so that the earlier clear cost advantage of nuclear over the service life of the plant has been reduced or lost altogether.4,// Nations should therefore look very closely at cost comparisons to obtain the best value when chooßing an energy path. 2.2 Health and Environment Risk6 47. Very 6trict codes of safety practice are implemented in nuclear plants so that under officially approved operating conditions, the danger from radiation to reactor personnel and especially to the general public is negligible. However, an accident occurring in a reactor may in certain very rare canes be serious enough to cause an external release of radioactive substances. Depending upon the level of exposure, people are under a certain level of risk of becoming ill from various iorms of cancer or from alteration ot genetic material, which may result in hereditary defects. 48. Since 1928, the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) has i6bued recommendations on radiation dosage levels above which expoeurc is unacceptable. These have been developed for occupati ona 1ly exposed workers and for the general public. The 'Nuclear Safety Standards (NUSS) codes of IAEA were developed in 1975 to reduce safety differences among member states. Neither system Í6 in any way binding on governments. If an accident occurs, individual governments have the responsibility of deciding at what level of radioactive contamination pasture land, drinking water, milk, meat, eggs, vegetables, and fish, are to be banned for consumption by livestock or humans. 49. Different countries even different local government authorities within a country have different criteria. Some have none at all, I CRP and NUSS notwithstanding. States with more rigorous standarde may destroy large amounts of food or may ban food imports from a neighbour b t d U> with more permissive criteria. Thi6 causes great hardship to farmers who may not receive any compensation for their losses. It may also cause trade problems and political tension between 6tates. Both of these difficulties occurred following the Chernobyl disaster, when the need to develop at least regionally conformable ■ ontami na t i on criteria and compensation arrangements was overwhelmingly demonstrated. 2 A. Nu cle d r Acc i d e n t Rj s k s 50. Nuclear safety returned to the newspaper headlines following the Three Mile Island (Harrisbury. Uniteu States) and the Chernobyl (USSR) accidents. Probabilistic estimates of the risks of component failure, leading to a radioactive release in Western style light water reactorß were made in 1975 by the U.S. A/42/427 Knc-jl i.s h Pai/ with 10 governments possessing about 90 per cent of all installed capacity (more than 5 GW (e)). Of these, there are B with a total capacity of more than 9 GW (e),&2// which provided the following percentages of electric power ir. 1985: France. 65; Sweden, 42; Federal Republic of Germany. 31; Japan, 23; United Kingdom, 19; United States. 16; Canada, 13; and USSR, 10. According to IAEA, in 1985 there were 55 research reactors worldwide, 3J of them in developing count ries.53/ 56, Nevertheless, there is little doubt that the difficulties referred to above have in one way or another contributed to a Rcaling back of future nuclear plans in soinř countries, to a de A/4?/4 Z 7 Rnql ish Pdlijp 1HH facto nuclear pause. In western Europe and North America, which today have almost 75 per cent of current world capacity, nuclear provides about one-third of the energy that was forecast for it 10 years ago. Apart from France, Japan, the USSR, and several other East European countries that have decided to continue with their nuclear programmes, ordering, construction, and licensing prospects for new reactors in many other countries look poor. In fact, between 1972 and 1986, earlier global projections of estimated capacity for the year 2000 have been revised downwards by a factor of nearly seven. Despite this, the growth of nuclear at around IB per cent a year over the last 20 years is 6till impressive.54/ 57. Following Chernobyl, there were significant changes in the nuclear stance of certain governments. Several - notably China, the Federal Republic of Germany, France, Japan, Poland, United Kingdom. United States, and the USSR - have maintained or reaffirmed their pro-nuclear policy. Others with a 'no nuclear' or a 'phase-out' policy (Australia, Austria. Denmark, Luxembourg. New Zealand, Norway, Sweden - and Ireland with an unofficial anti-nuclear position) have been joined by Greece and the Philippines. Meanwhile, Finland, Italy, the Netherlands. Switzerland, and Yugoslavia are re-investigating nuclear safety and/or the anti-nuclear arguments, or have introduced legislation tying any further growth of nuclear energy and export/import of nuclear reactor technology to a satisfactory solution of the problem of disposal of radioactive wastes. Several countries have been concerned enough to conduct referenda to te6t public opinion regarding nuclear power. 4. Conclusions and Recommendations 58. These national reactions indicate that as they continue to review and update all the available evidence, governments tend to take up three possible positions: * remain non-nuclear and develop other sources of energy; * regard their present nuclear power capacity as necessary during a finite period of transition, to safer alternative energy sources; or * adopt and develop nuclear energy with the conviction that the associated problems and riKks can and must, be solved with a level of Bafety that iß both nationally and internationally acceptable. The discussion in the Commission also reflected these tendencies, views, and positions. 59. But whichever policy is adopted, it Í6 important that the vigorous promotion of energy-efficient practices in all energy sectors and large-scale programmes of research, development, and demonstration for the safe and environmentally benign use of all promising energy sources, especially renewables, be given the highes«, priority. 60. Because of potential t ransboundary effects, it is essential that governments cooperate to develop internationally agreed codes of practice covering technical, economic, social (including health and environment aßpectB), and political components ol nuclear energy. In particular, international agreement mußt reached on the following specific items: AM.' ' 4 .' / Kiu|I ľ.h ľ. t« !«• IM') he fu 'E de By Ac by em an af th in se a B t li co mi th nu ef ra ag an nu Bt Bt ti pr fih 11 gove arly No velopme stem) a (ident IAEA; ergency d for d fected e trans clud ing a. or a code of andards cens ing des of nimum s e repor clear i feet i ve diologi reed si d notif clear - r andards andards me-expi oblemB ippi ng. rnmental ratification ol the conventions on tification of a Nuclear Accident' (including the nt of an appropriate surveillance and monitoring nd on 'Assistance in the Case of a Nuclear or Radiological Emergency' as recently developed response training - for accident containment econtamination and long-term clean-up ol sites, personnel, and ecosystems; boundary movement of all radioactive materiále. fuel6, spent fuels, and other wastes by land, ir; practice on liability and compensation; for operator training and international # practice for reactor operation, including atety standards; ting of routine and accidental discharges from nsta 1 lat ions; , internationally harmonized minimum cal protection standards; te selection criteria as well as consultation ication prior to the siting of all major civil elated installations; for waste repositories; for the decontamination and dismantling of red nuclear reactors; and posed by the development of nuclear powered 61. For many reasons, especially including the failure of the nuclear weapons states to agree on disarmament, the Nonprolif erat ion Treaty has not proved to be a sufficient instrument to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons, which still remains a serious danger to world peace. We therefore recommend in the strongest »erms the construction of an effective international regime covering all dimensions of the problem. Both nuclear weapons states and non nuclear weapons stater, should undertake to accept safeguards in accordance with the statutes ol IAEA. 62. Additionally, an international regulatory function is reguired, including inspection of reactors internationally. Th should be quite separate from the role of IAEA in promoting nuclear energy. 63. The generation of nuclear power ib only justifiable ll there are solid solutions to the presently unsolved problems t( which it gives rise. The highest priority must be accorded to research and development on environmentally sound and economically viable alternatives, as well as on means of increasing the safety of nuclear energy. A '4.'/ 4,! 7 [•'.mil i'-.h P.tq.' I'M) IV. WOOD FUELS: THE VANISHING RESOURCE 64. Seventy per cent of the people in developing countries use wood and. depending rn availability, burn anywhere between an absolute minimum of about 360 kilogrammer. to 2,900 kilogrammes of dry wood annually, with the average being around 700 kilogrammes per person. ^/ Rural woodfuel supplies appear to be steadily collapsing in many developing countries, especially in sub-Sdharan Africa.i)b/ At the same time, the rapid growth -f agriculture, the pace of migration to cities, and the growing numbers of people entering the money economy are placing unprecedented pressures on the biomas6 buse^7/ and increasing the demand for commercial fuels: from wood and charcoal to kerosene, liguid propane, gas. and electricity. To cope with 'his. many developing couitry governments have no option but to immediately organize their agriculture to produce large quantities of wood and other plant fuel6. 66. Wood is being collected faster than it can regrow in many developing countries that still rely predominantly on bioma6s wood, charcoal, dung, and crop residues - for cooking, for heading their dwellings, and even for lighting. FAO estimates suggest that in 1900, around 1.3 billion people lived in woot1 - def ici t areas.^^ If thi6 popula t ion- dr i ven over harvesting continues at present rate6. by the year 2000 some 2.4 billion people may be living in areas where wood Í6 'acutely 6carce or ha6 to be obtained elsewhere'. These figures reveal great human hardship. Precise data on supplies are unavailable because rauch of the wood is not commercially traded but collect«"! by the users, principally women and children. Hut there Í6 no doubt that millions are hard put to find substitute fuels, and their numbers are growing. 66. The fuelwood crisis and deforestation - although related are not the same problems. Wood fuels destined for urban and industrial consumers do tenJ to come from forests. But only a small proportion of that used by the rural poor comes from foceBtB. Even in these cases, vi 11 igers rarely chop down treen; most collect dead branches or cut them trom trer,fi.'1<,/ 67. When fuelwood Í6 in short supply, people normally economize; when it is no longer available, rural people are forced to burn such fuels as cow dung, crop stems and hucks, and weeds. Often this doe6 no harm, since waste products such as cottor 6talks are used. But the burning oi dung and certain crop residues may in some cases rob the 6oil of needed nutrients. Eventually extreme fuel sh< rtage6 can reduce the number of cooked meals and shorten the cooking time, which increases ma lnour is'-ment. 68. Many urban people rely on wood, and most of this is purchased. Recently, as the price of wood fuel6 has been rising, poor families have been oblig d to spend increasing proportions of their income on wood. In Addis Ababa .*nd Maputo, families may s má a third to half of their incomes this way.i)':)/ Much work A/42/427 Knij] ish P.i<)p lil Fuelwood and charcoal are. and will remain, the major sources of energy for the great majority of rural people in developing countries. The removal of trees in both semiarid and humid land in /.frican countries is a result to a larg^.-extent of increasing energy needs from an increasing population, both rural and urban. The most visible results are desertification, soil erosion, and general environmental degradation. The reasons behind these disappointments are many, but a central cause is undoubtedly a singular focus on trees as the object of attention,, rather than people. Forestry must enlarge its horizons: beyond trees - to the people who must exploit t hem. Kutger Engelhard Bei jer Institute's Centre for Energy and Development in Africa WCED Pu \ic Hearing Nairobi, 23 Sept 1986 has been done over t he past 10 years to develop fuel-efficient stovi's, and some of these new modelB use 30- SO per cent le66 fuel. These, as well as aluminium rookinn pots and pressure cookers that also use much less fuel, should be made more widely available in urban areas. b^t. Charcoal is a. more convenient, cleaner fuel than wood, and i .r smoke causes less eye irritation and respiratory trouble than wood smoke.bi/ Hut the usual methods for making it waste t'emendous quantities of wood. Dei er es tat i on r:tcc around cities could be greatly reduced if more efficient char coal - itic'k ing ' rchniquer., such as brick or metal kiluc, wera introduced. i J. Commercial forestry operations are rarely effective in iroviding fuelwood in rural areas, but they help to meet urban ind industrial needs. Commercial farm forestry, or, on a larger scale, dedicated energy plantations, can be viable enterprises. Green belts round large urban areas can also provide wood fuelf 'or the urban consumers, and such an urban green zone brings other environmental amenities. Some iron and steel industries in developing countries are based on charcoal produced from wood in such dedicated energy plantations. Unfortunately, most 61 i 11 draw their wood supplier from native forests, without reforestation. Often, especially in the initial stages, fisca1. and tax incentives are necessary to get planting projects going. Later these can be tied to success rates for tree growth, and cau eventually be phased out. In urban areas, there are also gooc prospects for increasing the supplies of alternative energy sources, such as electricity, liquid propane gas, kerosene, and coa 1 . 71. These strategies, however, will not be able to help most rural people, particularly the poor, who collect their wood. For them wood is a 'free gcod' until the last available tree is cut down. Rural areas require totally different 6tr«legies. Given A/42/427 Enut once a year somewhere in the world. This risk is small but not insignificant. 83. One cf the most widespread chronic problems is the eye and lung irritation caused by woodsmoke in developing countries. When agricultural wastes are burned, pesticide residues inhaled from the dusts or smoke of the crop material can be a health problem. Modern biofuel liquids have their own special hazards. Apart from competing with food crops for good agricultural land, their production generates large quantities of organic waste effluent, which if not used as a fertilizer can cause serious water pollution. Such fuels, particularly methanol, may produce irritant or toxic combustion products. All these and many other problems, both large and small, will increase as renewable energy systems are developed. 84. Most renewable energy systems operate best at small to medium scales, ideally suited for rural and suburban applications. They are also generally labour-intensive, which should be an added benefit where there if surplus labour. They are lesB susceptible than fossil fuels to wild price fluctuations and foreign exchange costs. Most countries have some renewable resources, and their use ran help nations move towards self-reliance. A/42/427 Rnqlíah Paqp 19S 85. The need for a steady transition to a broader and more sustainable mix of energy sources is beginning to become accepted. Renewable energy sources could contribute substantially to this, particularly with new and improved technologies, but their development will depend in the short run on the reduction or removal of certain economic and institutional constraints to their use. These are formidable in many countries. The high level of hidden subsidies for conventional fuels built into the legislative and energy programmes of most countries distorts choices against renewables in research and development, depletion allowances, tax write-offs, and direct support of consumer prices. Countries should undertake a full examination of all suosidies and other forms of support to various sources of energy and remove those that are not clearly ju6t if ied. 86. Although the situation is changing rapidly in some jurisdictions, electrical utilities in most have a supply monopoly on generation that allows theiu to arrange pricing policies that discriminate against other, usually small, suppliers.69/ In some countries a relaxation of this control, requiring utilities to accept power generated by industry, small systems, and individuals, has created opportunities for the development of renewables. Beyond that, requiring utilities to adopt an end-use approach in planning, financing, developing, and marketing energy can open the door to a wide range of energy-saving measures as well as renewables. 87. Renewable energy sources require a much higher priority in national energy programmes. Research, development, and demonstration projects should command funding necessary to ensure their rapid development and demonstration. With a potential of 10TW or so, even if 3-4TW were realized, it would make a crucial difference to future primary supply, especially in developing countries, where the background conditions exist for the success of renewables. The technological challenges of renewables are minor compared with the challenge of creating the social and institutional lrameworks that w*.ll ease these sources into energy supply systems. 86. The Commission believes that every effort should be made to develop the potential for renewable energy, which should forir the foundation of the global energy structure during the 21st Century. A much more concerted effort uiu6t be mounted if this potential is to be realized. But a major programme of renewable energy development will i jolve large costs and high risks, particularly massive-scale solar and biomass industries. Developing countries lack the resourcoB to finance all but a small fraction of this cost although they will be important users and possibly even exporters. Large-scale financial and technical assistance will therefore be required. VI. ENERGY EFFICIENCY: MAINTAINING THE MOMENTUM 89. Given the above analysis, the Commission believes that energy efficiency should be the cutting edge of national energy A/4.'/427 P.nií> I'lh policies for sustainable development. Impressive gains in energy efficiency have been made since the first oil price shock in the 1970s. During the past 13 years, many industrial countries saw the energy content of growth fall significantly as a result of increases in energy efficiency averaging 1.7 per cent annually between 1973 and 1983.70/ And this energy efficiency solution costs less, by savings made on the extra primary supplies required to run traditional equipment. 90. The cost-effectiveness of 'efficiency' as the most environmentally benign 'source' of energy Í6 well established. The energy consumption per unit of output from the meßt efficient processes and technologies is one-third to le66 than one-half that of typically available equipment.71/ 91. This is true appliances for cooking, lightirg and refrigeration, and space cooling and heating - needs that are growing rapidly in most countries and putting severe pressures on the available supply systems. It is also true of agricultural cultivation and irrigation systems, of the automobile, and of many industrial processes and equipment. 92. Given the large disproportion in per capita energy consumption between developed and developing countries in general, it is clear that the scope and need for energy saving is potentially much higher in industrial than in developing countries. Nonetheless, energy efficiency is important everywhere. The cement factory, automobile, or irrigation pump in a poor country is fundamentally no different from its equivalent in the rich world. In both, there is roughly the same scope for reducing the energy consumption or peak power demand of these devices without loss of output or welfare. But poor countries will gain much more from such reductions. 93. The woman who cooks in an earthen pot over an open fire uses perhaps eight times more energy than an affluent neighbour with a gas stove and aluminium pans. The poor who light their homes with a wick dipped in a )ar of kerosene get one-fiftieth of the illumination of a 100-watt electric bulb, but use just as much energy. These examples illustrate the tragic paradox of poverty. For the poor, the shottage of money is a greater limitation than the shortage of energy. They are forced to use 'free' fuels and inefficient equipment because they do not have the cash or savings to purchase energy-efficient fuels and end-use devices. Consequently, collectively they pay much more for a unit of delivered energy services. 94. in most cases, investments in improved end-use technologies save money over time through lowered energy-supply needß The costs of improving the end-use equipment is frequently much less than the cost of building more primary supply capacity. In Brazil, for example, it has been shown that for a discounted, total investment of $4 billion in more efficient end-use technologies (such as more efficient ret rigerators, street-lighting, or motors) it would be feasible to defer construction of 21 gigawatts of new electrical supply capacity, corresponding to a discounted capital savings for new supplies of $19 billion in the period 1986 to 2000.72/ A/4.V4 2 7 ^n<)] iiih P.-Kjo 147 Ne must change our attitude towards consumption goods in developed countries and we must create technological advances that will allow us to carry on economic development using less energy. Vie must ask ourselves can we solve the problems of underdevelopment without using or increasing the tremendous amount of energy used by these countries. The idea that developing countries use very little energy is an incorrect idea. We find that the poorest countrier of all have a different problem: their problem is inefficient use of energy. Medium countries such as Brazil use more efficient and modern sources of fuel. The great hope for these countries Í6 that the future will be built not based on technologies of the past, but using advanced technology. This will allow them to leap forward in relation to countries that are already developed. Jose Goldemberg President, Corapanhia Energetice de Sao Paulo WCED Public Hearing Brasilia, 30 o