CONSEQUENCES OF
CBRN INCIDENTS
Pavel CASTULIK
CB 050 Military Chemistry, Toxicology and Protection Against High Toxic Agents
Masaryk University, Faculty of Nature Sciences
Spring 2011
Cargo Trains Crush /Poland
05:30 hrs, Nov 09, 2010
―You cannot escape the responsibility of tomorrow
by evading it today.”
Abram Lincoln
Conventional Explosive Events
HazMat and CBR events
HAZMAT Limited Scale Event
BHOPAL MEMENTO
Chernobyl's Nuclear Power Plant
Catastrophe
 26 April 1986 at 1:23
a.m. the Nuclear reactor
No. 4 was destroyed by
two explosions
 Steam explosion and
following fire of graphite,
disseminate aprox, 5%
of radiation material
during 10 days
 Serious
contamination of
200,000 km2 with
Cs-135
Industrial Scale HAZMAT Event
Kurdistan-Halabja-use of Yperit
and Tabun
Exposure of Skin with Yperit
Iranian soldier Danish fisherman
Terrorism
 Terrorism is psychological warfare.
 Thus, the strategy in terms, of preparation
and planning rehearsed by the authorities
must focus on the psychosocial
dimension.
Aims of Terrorism
 Create widespread fear, anxiety and panic
 Generate a communal and individual sense of
helplessness, vulnerability and hopelessness
 Demonstrate the incompetence and/or inability of the
authorities to afford security and protection against such
opponents
 Provoke the authorities into errors or overreactions
which will disaffect the general public or specific
influential bodies
 Generally, terrorist incidents cause a higher level of
psychopathology than is occasioned by natural
disasters.
9/11 - 2001
INPUTS:
AIR TICKETS
OUTCOMES: !!!????
9/11 - 2001
 The terrorist attacks of 2001 increased the
awareness of the vulnerabilities to
asymmetric attacks with conventional,
CBRN, environmental and cyber means.
 Lack of preparedness for non-conventional
events is triggering an invitation for
CBRNE incidents
Ultra-Right Extremisms-Arson Attack
The two-year-old girl Natalka who suffered burns to 80 percent of the body in an
arson attack on her Romany family's house
22, 20 and 20 year prison sentences; medical costs and compensation € 680,000
Three
Molotov
Cocktails
€ 5
Risk of CBR(N)
 It is impossible to eliminate the risk of chemical or
biological terrorism and thus
 A complete removal of CBR vulnerability is probably
impossible
 Orientation for mass casualties impacts
 Enormous psychological impact-unknown effects, fear,
panic
 Preparedness is significantly costly with unpredictable
effects
 Consequence operations are lengthy and costly
 Restoration of public trust and confidence is very
vulnerable
Why CBRN Dragon is still sleeping?
 The ease of using conventional weapons so far
outweighs the potential benefits of using a more
challenging, unconventional method CBR.
 The public’s response to highly visible acts of property
destruction may provide a disincentive for CBR agent
usage.
 C/B agent development requires greater time and
financial investment than development of conventional
explosives, and it demands a higher degree of training.
 Groups may not be able or willing to invest such a high
proportion of resources in unconventional weapons
given the relative ease of obtaining and using
conventional weapons.
How long CBRN Dragon would be
sleeping?
 Transitional possibility is the use of CBR in
conjunction with conventional weapons.
 Recent advances in dual-use technology may
reduce the technological barriers for terrorist
groups who wish to engage in CBRN-related
attacks.
 These dual-use technologies provide
prospective terrorists with equipment that can be
obtained by theft or purchase.
Mass Murder of Industrial Scale
Know-How is there
Bacillus anthracis
 One notable incident involved the release of
anthrax (Bacillus anthracis) spores in 1979 in
Sverdlovsk in the former Soviet Union. In that
event, 96 people were hospitalized, 68 of whom
died.
 That the incident was in fact caused by
inhalation anthrax from an accidental spore
release from a biological weapons facility.
Amerithrax
Bacillus anthracis-Amerithrax
 The dominant CBRN-related terrorist incident was the 2001 anthrax
attack in the United States. Although the attack caused a relatively
small burden of illness and death—22 infections and 5 deaths
 It created significant political, economic, and social disruption
 In the wake of the attack, as many as two million Americans might
have taken antibiotics unnecessarily—a public health issue in and of
itself.
 Additionally, the U.S. Government spent in excess of $3 billion in
direct costs to the U.S. Postal Service, as well as more than $24
million for the cleanup of the Hart Senate Office Building.
 Contamination of Postal branch at US Embassy in Vienna through
diplomatic mail sent from Washington DC.
 The so-called Amerithrax attack highlighted significant shortfalls and
challenges in the Federal biodefense response to an attack on the
homeland—many of which remain unresolved 5 years later.
SARS
 Greater public health significance was the 2002 outbreak
of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, a virus related
to the common cold.
 First appearing in China and initially misdiagnosed as
influenza or severe pneumonia—pointing out how newly
emerging diseases can easily be allowed to ―break out‖
from their initial cases—the virus ultimately resulted in
774 deaths worldwide and
 Caused economic losses estimated at $80 billion to $100
billion
Radiological Event-Three Mile Island
 In 1979, the US experienced its most serious
radiological incident with the reactor accident at
Three Mile Island in Pennsylvania.
 A failure in the non-nuclear part of the
powerplant led to inadequate cooling and the
melting of nuclear fuel pellets.
 The cleanup of the damaged reactor, however,
took nearly 12 years and cost almost a billion
dollars.
Radiological Event- Chernobyl
 In 1986 thirty-one people died in the Chernobyl accident
and its immediate aftermath. Most of the immediate
casualties were suffered by firefighters.
 Estimates of the delayed health effects vary, but by
2002, 4,000 cases of thyroid cancer had been reported
in exposed children.
 The cleanup costs at Chernobyl are estimated at $1
billion.
 The aggregate damage from the catastrophe to the
country has been estimated at $235 billion (calculated
for a 30-year recovery period).
Psychology and CBRN
EFFECTS OF CBR AGENTS
ON MENTAL STATUS
 Whether from a biological or chemical agent attack, many people,
exposed or not, who seek treatment in emergency rooms will exhibit
tension, tachycardia, increased respiratory rate, tremors, and other
nonspecific signs and symptoms that could result from the agent or
from anxiety associated with the incident.
 Persistent long-term neuropsychiatric effects of acute intoxication
with this class of pesticides include drowsiness, memory
impairment, depression, fatigue, and increased irritability, and the
symptoms last weeks to years after the exposure.
 Blister agents (nitrogen or sulfur mustards), another class of
chemical weapons, can produce delirium and psychological distress
resulting from highly disfiguring lesions that cover the skin, including
genitalia, and from long-lasting oligospermia.
 Anthrax spores can produce rapidly progressive meningitis.
Depression, irritability, and headaches occur in persons with
brucellosis, and nearly all fatalities from this infection involve either
the endocardium or the central nervous system.
PSYCHOLOGICAL IMPACT
 A chemical, biological or radiological attack is
psychological warfare, whether that attack is real
or a cleverly designed hoax and whether it is
initiated by a lone sociopath, by a group of
domestic or foreign terrorists, or by a nation.
 Such incident will produce psychological
impairment at the individual and community
levels and may generate numbers of casualties
that overwhelm local medical resources.
PSYCHOLOGICAL IMPACT
 After the first missile attack on Israel by Iraq during the
Persian Gulf war, nearly 40% of the civilians in the
immediate vicinity of the attack had breathing difficulties,
tremors, sweating, anxiety, and labile mood; subsequent
attacks produced fewer symptoms.
 In a World War I incident, of 281 soldiers admitted to a
referral center field hospital, 90 were true gas casualties
and the rest were victims of ―gas mania‖.
 Of the 5,510 persons who sought medical treatment from
the 1995 sarin attack in Tokyo, 12 died, 17 were critically
injured, 1,370 had mild to moderate injuries, and the
other 4,000 had no or minimal injuries (worried well).
Psychological Impacts and Effects
 People who are exposed to a traumatic event often
experience severe emotional shock and may suffer
devastating, long-term, psychological consequences.
 In order to manage successfully psychological impacts of
CBRN events the Consequence Management training is
needed to address the Psychological Impacts & Effects
of a Weapon of Mass Destruction incident on care
providers, response elements, and incident victims.
 The training should be focus on methods for recognizing,
minimizing, managing, and treating the severe
psychological stresses associated with a WMD incident
The Art to be Calm
Panic
 WMD terrorist attacks are frightening – bringing fear and
anxiety to the public and first response communities.
'Coping with fear under fire' is one of the most acute
problems you must face as a First Responder called to a
Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) terrorist attack.
 You will be asked to calm the public and assist fallen
responders, while silently dealing with your own fears.
 How will victims from different cultural and ethnic groups
react to a WMD incident and how will I respond?
 This will entail knowing the signs of panic within different
contexts and with victims of different cultural and ethnic
groups.
Challenges
 In the event of an WMD attack, how can public
panic/fear be lessened?
 How can the public be persuaded to take appropriate
action and to avoid inappropriate actions?
 Who among responders and the public are at higher risk
of adverse psychological effects and how can such
effects be prevented or mitigated?
 What are the likely psychosocial impacts of WMD and
how can they be prevented or mitigated?
Preparedness of Responders
 The medical community will be greatly impacted
by a WMD attack and must be prepared. To
reduce the impact of WMD attacks, a clinically
trained psychologist should be a part of the
response team.
 Medical professionals and responders must be
trained to deal with blame and the scapegoat
syndrome.
 If they know to expect it, they are better
prepared to deal with it.
 CBRN and Economic Impact
Costs caused by the impact of CBRN
incidents
 First response
 Rescue of injured and threatened people
 Evacuation
 Registration of contamination
 Blocking the spread of dangerous CBRN
materials
 Immediate decontamination
 Measures to cordon off the contaminated area
Costs caused by the impact of CBRN
incidents
 Recovery, reconstruction, restoration
 Health care for injured people
 Costs for the deceased (medical forensics, funerals, life insurances)
 Pensions, etc for disabled people
 Cleaning up measures and thorough decontamination
 Reconstruction of buildings
 Resettlement and relocation
 Restoration of infrastructure: transport system, public services
(water supply, electricity, telephone network)
 Gathering of infected animals
 Clearance of contaminated cadavers and plants
 Waste management (most importantly disposal of CBRN
substances)
Costs caused by the impact of CBRN
incidents
 Indirect damage costs
 Loss of earnings caused by loss of consumer confidence
 Loss of earnings caused by (preventive) culling
 Loss of earnings caused by decline in tourism
 Loss of earnings resulting from injuries/sicknesses or death of
employees
 Loss of earnings because of state of emergency (regional and
international)
 Economic impact of temporary infrastructure breakdown:
 Transportation system, public services (water supply, electricity,
telephone network)
Costs caused by the impact of CBRN
incidents
 Macroeconomic costs
 Consequential costs from loss of income
(multiplier effects)
 Loss of investor confidence/propensity to
save
Costs for countermeasures against
CBRN incidents
 Prevention
 Stockpiling of antibiotics, diagnostics, vaccines and, management thereof
 Establishment and management of monitoring networks
 Establishment of new research facilities and programmes
 Biosecurity review
 Preparedness:
 risk assessment
 situation awareness
 security personnel
 training of qualified persons and threatened populations
 governmental authorities and private organisations for situation
 observation and assessment
 Physical protection for the warehouses containing CBRN materials:
 portal monitors
 import and export control
 security barriers, fences, video observation
Costs for countermeasures against
CBRN incidents
 Protection
 Protection for the critical infrastructures and the general public against threats arising
from CBRN terrorism/criminality/accidents:
 access control
 portal monitors
 protection against intrusion: security barriers, fences, video
 observation
 Human security
 risk assessment
 situation awareness
 governmental authorities and private organizations for situation
 portal monitors
 import and export control
 security barriers, fences, video observation
 access control
 protection against intrusion: security barriers, fences, video observation
 security personnel
 training of qualified staff and endangered populations
 governmental authorities and private organizations for the control of certain security standard
Costs for countermeasures against
CBRN incidents
 Preparedness
 Equipment
 Operation procedures
 Training of qualified persons and endangered
populations
 Governmental authorities and private organizations for
situation
 Observation
 First response capabilities and capacities
Palomares accident of 1966 in Spain
 On 17 January 1966, a B52-bomber collided with a KC-135 aircraft
while refueling at a height of 9,000 metres, with both aircrafts
crashing on Spanish terrain.
 Three of the four hydrogen bombs fell on the inhabited area of
Palomares, the fourth fell into the sea.
 The high-explosive burster charges detonated and radioactive
plutonium was dispersed across several hectares of agricultural
land. Within three months more than 1,500 tons of radioactive
contaminated soil was disposed of.
 Recovery, reconstruction, restoration
 Clean-up costs per hectare after Palomares accident: 33.6 million
US$
Nuclear bomb attacks on
Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945
Casualties Hiroshima Nagasaki
People killed
directly
45,000 31,000
Death by cancer 31,881 in both cities
Total number of
injured people
72,200 25,000
Total number of
killed people
140,000 70,000
Casualties of Chernobyl and Bhopal
Disasters
Loses Chernobyl NPP
1986
Bhopal Union Carbide
1984
People killed 47 5,000 – 17,500
Dead
liquidators
300-20,000
Cancer deaths 50,000 – 75,000
Thyroid cancer > 4,000
People injured 200,000
Costs of Chernobyl and Bhopal
Disasters
Item Chernobyl Bhopal
Recovery,
Reconstruction,
Restoration
17,5 billion
US$
0,510 billion
US$
Indirect damage
costs
235,5 billion
US$
3 billion
US$
Containment of
residual
radioactivity
1 – 16 billion
US$
Cost of Amerithrax 2001
 Preventive costs 2 million US$ to get
information on the perpetrator(s)
 Costs for decontamination 90.3million US$
 Total number of killed people 5
 Total number of injured people 22
MEDIA and CBRN
Media
 A certainty in the wake of a major CBRN attack will be
the extensive and rapid deployment of media personnel
 Dramatic terrorist events raise viewing and sales figures;
the media at the same time provide an opportunity for
terrorists to publicise their cause and provide a
―justification‖ for their deeds, however apparently
barbarous.
 Civil contingency planning must involve the media as
allies not only because their presence is inevitable but,
more constructively, because the media are experts in
mass communication.
Misinformation
 Addressing Sources of Misinformation
Planners will also have to address sources
of misinformation, disinformation, and
propaganda attacks by individuals and
groups who thrive on government
conspiracy theories, urban legends myths,
and sensationalism.
?Media Alliance for CBRN Terror?
 The media attention given to civilian deaths may
induce a terrorist to prefer an agent with high
fatalities over agents that inflict a high number of
casualties, but low fatalities, if they believed that
this would garner more media attention.
 Terrorists may believe that such media coverage
of terror events may further recognition of their
cause or increase the impact of their actions
 Model in covering disease (no)epidemics by
media
Partnering with the Media
 A key factor in developing an effective public awareness
campaign is a close partnership between media and
government.
 Will the media be willing to work with the government?
 The media is more likely to show body bags and disaster
sites than progress being made.
 How can agencies and responders work with the media
to encourage more positive messages and visuals in a
WMD attack?
 In general, the news cycle is extremely fast, almost real-
time.
 Yet, getting accurate information about a WMD attack
can take time; will the media be able to communicate
accurate information to the public?
Partnering with the Media
 The active involvement of media representatives at the
strategic planning stage is likely to achieve a number of
dividends, including:
 A reduced level of sensationalist reporting
 A lower risk of retraumatising survivors (through the
gratuitous repetition of graphic and gruesome imagery
etc)
 The prompt and wide dissemination of accurate
information (e.g, about what has happened, what is
happening, and what will happen; how to get help and
where)
 An emphasis on resilience and coping rather than on
psychopathology and helplessness
Colombian Guerillas
Victims
Hostage Collar Bomb
Childe Parcel Bomb
Casualties in Colombia
 Each12 hours one person is the victim of
antipersonal mine
 It represents 64% of military personnel
 34 % of civilians and 50% of them are
children
 89% victims are young people and adults
in productive age
Number of Victims 1995-2005
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Total
Gerrilas 0 0 11 0 0 0 6 3 2 9 3 34
Civilians 34 39 46 38 27 69 141 306 245 239 215 1.399
Sin Infor 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 2 4 9
Military 97 76 32 19 26 64 141 319 476 613 577 2. 440
Total 131 115 89 57 53 134 289 628 724 863 799 3.882
Victims
School of Engineers
„Military Victims―
School of Engineers in Bogotá
Cost
 Production and installation of 1 mine costs
cca. 2 $
 Search and disposal of 1 mine costs cca.
2000 $
 Medical treatment and rehabilitation of 1
victim costs cca.
100,000 $
Anti-vehicle Mine and Chinese Hat
Chemical Binary Hand Grenade
„Welding― generator as Mercury
Bomb
Attack of Oil Pipelines
continue for 30 years
Destruction of Electricity Towers
Affected more than 200 locationsSurroundings of towers are covered
with Anti-personnel mines
Rehearsal Quarries
1. What are the common characteristics
and differences between
conventional/natural and CBRN events?
2. What are the key factors in prevention
and preparedness against CBRN
events?
pcastulik@yahoo.co.uk