P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 sablony_ppt_01 Radarové odhady srážek a jejich užití v meteorologii a hydrologii Milan Šálek Český hydrometeorologický ústav salek@chmi.cz www.chmi.cz hydro.chmi.cz P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 sablony_ppt_01 bird_radar_anim P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 Chyby radarových odhadů při silné konvekci radar_convective P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 cb_kurim radar_beam12b radar P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 sablony_ppt_01 Srážkoměry: •Výhody: přijatelná přesnost pro dané místo •Nevýhody: omezení pouze na danou lokalitu, jistá komplikovanost přenosu aktuálních dat. •Metody odhadu plošných srážek: Thiessenovy (Hortonovy) polygony, metoda izohyet, geostatistické metody P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 sablony_ppt_01 •Thiessenovy •polygony • •GIS GRASS obr02 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 obr05 sablony_ppt_01 •Regularizovanýsplajn s tenzí (barva) vs. obyčejné krigování (izolinie) • •GIS GRASS P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 sablony_ppt_01 Kombinovaná informace radar-srážkoměr •Kombinace obou typů měření a odhadu srážek za předpokladu minimalizace chyb •Do roku 2009 byla v ČHMÚ v provozu procedura podle koncepce autora D.-J. Seo –Adjustace pomocí jednoho koeficientu pro celou radarovou doménu –Kombinace metodou Double optimum estimation P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 sablony_ppt_01 Kombinovaná informace radar-srážkoměr (pokr.) •Od roku 2009 je v ČHMÚ v provozu nový algoritmus kombinovaného odhadu srážek –Adjustace pomocí územně proměnlivého (zhlazeného) adjustačního koeficientu –Kombinace metodou regresního krigování • (příspěvek na Výročním semináři ve Křtinách) • P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 201005221800 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 201005221800 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 201005221800 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 201005221800 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 novojicinsko-radar_orig Orig. radar P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 novojicinsko-radar_adj Adj. radar P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 novojicinsko-merge Kombinace P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 kojcice P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 sloup-velky P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 sablony_ppt_01 Verifikace odhadů •Provedena pro denní srážky pro období 19.6.-23.7.2009 (silné srážky, převážně konvektivní) •Ve výpočtech využity pouze telemetrické srážkoměry •Pro verifikaci použity manuální srážkoměry (kritériem byla též rozdílnost lokality) •Spočtená střední absolutní chyba a systematická odchylka P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 sablony_ppt_01 Reprezentativnost stanic •Přijímán předpoklad reprezentativnosti srážkoměrné stanice pro územní element (pixel) 1 km2. •Možné, ale nepoužité řešení: Na každý pixel rozmístit 8 stanic podle optimálního schématu (Project HYREXn HESS, No 4, 2000) P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 sablony_ppt_01 Brdy_MAE P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 sablony_ppt_01 Brdy-bias P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 sablony_ppt_01 Skalky_MAE P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 sablony_ppt_01 Skalky-bias P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 br_MAE_merge2 Chyby denních odhadů srážek v doméně radaru Brdy. Červeně - stanice použité v operativních výpočtech, malými černými křížky verifikační srážkoměry P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 br-MAE-gage_minus_merge2 Rozdíl chyby srážkoměrných a kombinovaných odhadů v doméně radaru Brdy (ERR_SRA – ERR_KOMB) P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 Chyby denních odhadů srážek v doméně radaru Skalky. Červeně - stanice použité v operativních výpočtech, malými černými křížky verifikační srážkoměry SK-vyhodnoceni-merge-mae2 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 Rozdíl chyby srážkoměrných a kombinovaných odhadů v doméně radaru Skalky (ERR_SRA – ERR_KOMB) SK-MAE-vyhodnoceni-gage_minus_merge2 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 sablony_ppt_01 Verifikace na hodinových srážkoměrných úhrnech v městě Brně •Stanice Brněnských vodovodů a kanalizací (BVaK) •18 srážkoměrných stanic (bez operativního přenosu) + 2 stanice ČHMÚ (použité ve výpočtech) •Hustota stanic v městě Brně: 1 stanice na 8 km2 •Hustota srážkoměrů v ČR: –1 stanice na 70km2 –s přenosem: 1 stanice na 200-240 km2 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 sablony_ppt_01 mapa_Brno_stanice2 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 sablony_ppt_01 stanice_prenosovky_a_manualni_a_brno Srážkoměry s přenosem P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 sablony_ppt_01 Verifikační soubor •208 srážkově významných epizod (hodinových akumulací) –kritérium byla přítomnost srážek na všech stanicích v městě Brně •Pro všechny stanice vypočteny korelační koeficienty a střední absolutní chyba • • P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 sablony_ppt_01 Výsledky P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 sablony_ppt_01 vzd-abs_chyba P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 sablony_ppt_01 salek-obr4 Kor. koef orig. radaru Kor. koef adj. radaru Kor. koef kombinace Korelogram hodinových srážkových úhrnů P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 sablony_ppt_01 Praktické využití operativního radaro-srážkoměrného odhadu •Rychlý přehled dat o srážkách (kolik spadlo srážek) •Varovná protipovodňová služba •Verifikace meteorologických předpovědních modelů •Srážkový vstup do hydrologických modelů P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 sablony_ppt_01 merge_201008150600_06 merge_201008150600_06_catchments P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 CR-polygony-legenda Příklady Thiessenových polygonů, pro vybraná povodí, pro které je možné počítat plošné odhady srážek P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 sablony_ppt_01 Závěry •Nekorigovaná radarová měření srážek jsou nepřesná, odhady vyžadují korekce •Adjustace územně proměnným koeficientem přesnost významně zvyšuje •Průměrně nejlepším odhadem je kombinace (např. regresní krigování) • P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 sablony_ppt_01 Závěry (pokr.) •Verifikace na denních úhrnech ukázala i místa, kde radar k přesnosti odhadu srážek nepřispívá (zejm. horské oblasti) •Výpočty hodinových úhrnů pro město Brno indikují, že radar pozitivně přispívá k hodinovým odhadům srážek až od vzdálenosti asi 4 km od nejbližší stanice (nejbližších stanic) použité ve výpočtech. • P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 sumgr20081126090457i4vlq7bkei5qac9n2d5gk6or76 sablony_ppt_01 Závěry (pokr.) • Radarové odhady mohou sloužit ke kontrole (člunkových) srážkoměrů P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 sablony_ppt_01 Použité informační technologie •Při tvorbě a provozu kombinované informace byly a jsou použity tyto technologie: - Jazyk R + modul gstat - GIS GRASS, knihovna proj - OS GNU Linux a příslušné vývojové nástroje (C, Perl, …) - ArcGIS P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 Case studies of flash floods •Flash flood at Hodonínka river basin –Catchment area: 67.9 km2 –Number of radar areal elements: 9 –Average area of the radar areal elements: 7.5 km2 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 olesnice Basic facts of the flash flood at Hodonínka •Occured at small river Hodonínka on July 15, 2002 in evening hours •one of the worst convection-related disasters in 15 years • •Return period: > 200 years •Damage: 5.5 mil EUR •2 fatalities • •Cause: Heavy rainfall lasting 1.5 hour, train effect • P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 Hodoninka-srazky Radar-based QPE (from Max Z, grid 1km) and precipitation measurements (catchment size: 67.9 km2) olesnice_radar Hydrological model Hydrog ‘forecasted’ the discharge at the Štěpánov village using 10-minute radar-based QPE, 2-hour COTREC-based nowcasting and 1-hour persistence forecast of the 10-minute values P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 Example of COTREC nowcasting performance • • COTREC is more suitable for linear movement … P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 pacz23 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 pacz23 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 pacz23 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 pacz23 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 pacz23 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 pacz23 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 pacz23 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 pacz23 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 pacz23 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 pacz23 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 pacz23 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 pacz23 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 pacz23 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 pacz23 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 pacz23 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 Overview of the convection development along with discharge forecasts • •radar reflectivities (10 minute measurement) • •discharge forecasts for Štěpánov profile P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 200207151420_radar P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 200207151430_radar P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 200207151440_radar P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 200207151450_radar P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 200207151500_radar P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 200207151510_radar P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 200207151520_radar P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 200207151530_radar P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 200207151540_radar 1640_graf P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 200207151550_radar P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 200207151600_radar P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 200207151610_radar P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 200207151620_radar 1720_graf P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 200207151630_radar 1730_graf P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 200207151640_radar P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 200207151650_radar 1750_graf P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 200207151700_radar P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 200207151710_radar 1810_graf P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 200207151720_radar P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 200207151730_radar P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 200207151740_radar P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 200207151750_radar 1850_graf P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 200207151800_radar P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 Olesnice mapka mereni Sloup: return period: 50-100 years Catchment area: 49.9 km2 Number of radar areal elements: 8 Average area of the radar areal elements: 7.1 km2 Flash flood at Sloup the 26 May 2003 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 prival_Rajecka Flash flood at Sloup the 26 May 2003 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 05261100 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 05261110 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 05261120 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 05261130 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 05261140 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 05261150 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 05261200 1300 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 05261210 1310 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 05261220 1320 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 05261230 1330 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 05261240 1340 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 05261250 1350 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 05261300 1400 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 05261310 1410 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 05261320 1420 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 05261330 1430 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 Jičínka flash flood – radar observation Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Czech Republic Petr Novák, Lucie Březková logo rad-pacz26-anim Jičínka catchment : • catchment area 94,8 km2 • hilly character • no significant reservoir P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 3dprecip Flash floods in the Czech Republic in summer 2009 Long-lasting convective activity in Central Europe since 22th June until 22nd July 2009, heavy precipitation Series of flash flood Estimated total damage over the period: 200 mil EUR 12 fatalities Worst flash flood: June, 24th, NE part of the Czech Republic logo P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 dem-3D The area of flash flooding N CE01 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 dem-3D-3 View from north-east N P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 Geopotential500 hPa (color) + Mean sea level pressure (isolines) G500mslp_2009062400 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 Geopotential500 hPa (color) + Mean sea level pressure (isolines) G500mslp_2009062406 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 Geopotential500 hPa (color) + Mean sea level pressure (isolines) G500mslp_2009062412 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 Geopotential500 hPa (color) + Mean sea level pressure (isolines) G500mslp_2009062418 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 Temperature (color) + Geopotential850 hPa (isolines) GT850_2009062400 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 Temperature (color) + Geopotential850 hPa (isolines) GT850_2009062406 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 Temperature (color) + Geopotential850 hPa (isolines) GT850_2009062412 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 Temperature (color) + Geopotential850 hPa (isolines) GT850_2009062418 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 cape_00_f_2009062412 CAPE (MUCAPE), ALADIN analysis, June 24 2009, 12 UTC P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 cape_00_f_2009062418 CAPE (MUCAPE), ALADIN analysis, June 24 2009, 18 UTC P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 Analýza 12Z Weather station reports, 24 June, 12 UTC P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 Analýza 12Z Analýza 18 Weather station reports, 24 June, 18 UTC P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 CE01 poprad legionovo P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 Meteosat 9, SEVIRI, Airmass a R: WV6.2 - WV7.3 G: IR9.7 - IR10.8 B: WV6.2 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 msgce P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 radary_anim P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 Radar precipitation estimate without correction - 24h accumulation Max 60 mm Z-R relationship Z=200R^1.6 5 minute data, C band P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 Radar precip estimate merged with raingauges - 24h totals 124 mm Merging algorithm A modified version of D-J Seo, 1998 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 Radar precip estimate merged with raingauges - 24h totals 124 mm st./km^2 7 5 4 2 1 0.1 Density of lightning strikes strokes/km^2 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 rad_orig_s_izoliniemi_gage Original precipitation estimate from the radar (color) and precipitation from the raingauges (isolines; interpolation made by Universal kriging) Radar Skalky: 70 km from the precip centre C-band, 5 minute scan Z-R relationship Z=200R^1.6 5 minute data, C band P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 Possible reason of the severe underestimation of the storm rainfall • •Attenuation (C-band) •Different Z-R relationship - ? –(significant contribution of “warm” coalescent processes - ???) P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 merge_s_izoliniemi_gage Max 137 mm Merged radar and raingauge precipitation estimate (color, by Regression Kriging) and precipitation from the raingauges (isolines; interpolation made by Universal kriging) GRASS+R+gstat P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 merge_s_povodimi Merged radar and raingauge precipitation estimate (color, by Regression Kriging) and elementary catchments of typical size of several to several tens sq. km (black lines) P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 Precipitation and hydrological response •Maximum precipitation measured by the raingauges: 124 mm •Precipitation estimated by the method of Regression kriging: 137 mm •Flood with peak water level exceeding all historical records P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 Novy_Jicin02 River stage at Nový Jičín, stream Jičínka Warning issued by the CHMI at 18.04 UTC Courtesy of Odra River Authority P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 pov_skody P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 Warnings of the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute •June, 24th, 08.30 UTC: Flood alert over most areas of the Czech Republic •June, 24th, 18.04 UTC: Warning against heavy rain in the area of the squall line –Based on the raingauge reports and radar •June, 24th, 20.00 UTC: Warnings against heavy rain AND FLOOD in the area of the squall line P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 Were the warnings of CHMI successful? •According to the logbook of the Flood emergency committes, the flood had started dozens of minutes before the CHMI warning was issued. • P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 Identified shortcomings of current warning systems against flash floods •Precipitation accumulation (integrated estimate from radar and raingauges) available only in hourly intervals •Warnings not localized enough •Warnings distributed according to the (rather big) administrative regions • • P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 Identified shortcomings of current warning systems against flash floods (cont’d) •Existing gap between the (hydro)meteorological community and the decision makers, emergency managers and the public •To address the problem: Better education of the public concerning the inherent uncertainty and probabilistic nature of the flash flood forecasting P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 24h precipitation as forecast by NWP LAM ALADIN P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 Radar precip estimate corrected by raingauges - 24h accumulation P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 Performance of the meteorological information systems • •NWP prediction of the precipitation of the event: –Rather poor (not surprisingly; not shown) – •Monitoring of the heavy rain by remote sensing: – •Meteorological satelites (MSG): –Detection of the dry intrusion associated with the PV anomaly and of the plume-like structure indicating the upward motion and partially the training effect over the area – •Weather radars –Detection of the storm development and training effect –Severe underestimation of the precipitation accumulation – •Important role of the automatic (telemetric) raingauges – – P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 Role of the orography? dem-3D-3 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 Jičínka flash flood – catchement overview Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Czech Republic Petr Novák, Lucie Březková logo P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Czech Republic Petr Novák, Lucie Březková logo Jičínka flash flood – warning discussion SOME products were used for warning SOME products were available, but not used SOME products were not available, but are in development P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 Products used for warning: Ø Radar images (dBZ) in 5 min step Ø QPE images 1-hour step Ø Raingauge data usually in 1 hour step, for some raingauges in 15 min step Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Czech Republic Petr Novák, Lucie Březková logo SOME products were used for warning SOME products were available, but not used SOME products were not available, but are in development Jičínka flash flood – warning discussion P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Czech Republic Petr Novák, Lucie Březková logo Jičínka flash flood – radar-raingage QPE P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Czech Republic Petr Novák, Lucie Březková logo 17:20 UTC approx. available 18:04 UTC warning issued Jičínka flash flood – radar-raingage QPE P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Czech Republic Petr Novák, Lucie Březková logo Jičínka flash flood – radar-raingage QPE P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Czech Republic Petr Novák, Lucie Březková logo Jičínka flash flood – radar-raingage QPE P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Czech Republic Petr Novák, Lucie Březková logo Jičínka flash flood – radar-raingage QPE P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 ØJune, 24th, 08.30 UTC: Flood alert over most areas of the Czech Republic ØJune, 24th, 18.04 UTC: Warning against heavy rain in the area of the squall line - Based on the raingage reports and radar ØJune, 24th, 20.00 UTC: Warnings against heavy rain AND FLOOD in the area of the squall line Ø ØAccording to the logbook of the Flood emergency committes, the flood had started dozens of minutes before the CHMI warning was issued Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Czech Republic Petr Novák, Lucie Březková logo Warnings of the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 Jičínka flash flood – average catchment rainfall information available to the forecasters at given time Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Czech Republic Petr Novák, Lucie Březková logo Novyjicin [mm] P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Czech Republic Petr Novák, Lucie Březková logo 08.30: Flood alert over most areas of the Czech Republic Novyjicin Jičínka flash flood – average catchment rainfall information available to the forecasters at given time [mm] P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Czech Republic Petr Novák, Lucie Březková logo Novyjicin 08.30: Flood alert over most areas of the Czech Republic Jičínka flash flood – average catchment rainfall information available to the forecasters at given time [mm] 18:04 EXTREME PRECIPITATION WARNING ISSUED P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Czech Republic Petr Novák, Lucie Březková logo Novyjicin 18:04 EXTREME PRECIPITATION WARNING ISSUED 20:00 FLOOD WARNING ISSUED 08.30: Flood alert over most areas of the Czech Republic Jičínka flash flood – average catchment rainfall information available to the forecasters at given time [mm] P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 Hydrological modelling: Ø small catchments are parts of „standard“ hydrological models with „middle-sized catchment“ resolution Ø Ø small catchments are usually not monitored, sometimes there‘s a watergauge station, only very seldom watergauge station with automatic data transmission Ø Ø theoretically it is possible to calculate discharge forecast also for small catchments, even if the input resolution is insufficient Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Czech Republic Petr Novák, Lucie Březková logo SOME products were used for warning SOME products were available, but not used SOME products were not available, but are in development Jičínka flash flood – warning discussion P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 Odra catchment – model schematization Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Czech Republic Petr Novák, Lucie Březková logo Svinov Standard forecasting profile P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Czech Republic Petr Novák, Lucie Březková logo Šenov Svinov Standard forecasting profile Odra catchment – model schematization P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 Jičínka Flood – hydrological forecast Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Czech Republic Petr Novák, Lucie Březková logo Hydrological forecast: QPE + COTREC QPF Hourly update 16:25 UTC 17:25 UTC 18:25 UTC 19:25 UTC 20:25 UTC P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 Jičínka Flood – hydrological forecast Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Czech Republic Petr Novák, Lucie Březková logo Hydrological forecast: QPE + COTREC QPF Hourly update Potential flood warning 16:25 UTC 17:25 UTC 18:25 UTC 19:25 UTC 20:25 UTC P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Czech Republic Petr Novák, Lucie Březková logo Novyjicin 20:00 FLOOD WARNING ISSUED 08.30: Flood alert over most areas of the Czech Republic 18:04 EXTREME PRECIPITATION WARNING ISSUED Jičínka flash flood – average catchment rainfall information available to the forecasters at given time [mm] P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Czech Republic Petr Novák, Lucie Březková logo Novyjicin 20:00 FLOOD WARNING ISSUED 18:25 POTENTIAL FLOOD WARNING HYDROLOGICAL MODEL 08.30: Flood alert over most areas of the Czech Republic 18:04 EXTREME PRECIPITATION WARNING ISSUED Jičínka flash flood – average catchment rainfall information available to the forecasters at given time [mm] P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 Ø Increasing frequency of QPE/QPF calculation – newly in 5 min step (QPE combined with QPF) – detail rainfall analysis Ø Ø New methods of hydrological forecasting – fuzzy model for flash flood warning Ø Janal P., Starý M, 2009:Fuzzy model evaluation of peak outflouw from a river basin during flash flood. CCWI 2009, Sheffield, ISBN 978-0-415-54851-9. Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Czech Republic Petr Novák, Lucie Březková logo SOME products were used for warning SOME products were available, but not used SOME products were not available, but are in development Jičínka flash flood – warning discussion P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Czech Republic Petr Novák, Lucie Březková logo Novyjicin 20:00 FLOOD WARNING ISSUED 08.30: Flood alert over most areas of the Czech Republic 18:04 EXTREME PRECIPITATION WARNING ISSUED Jičínka flash flood – average catchment rainfall information available to the forecasters at given time [mm] P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Czech Republic Petr Novák, Lucie Březková logo Novyjicin 20:00 FLOOD WARNING ISSUED 08.30: Flood alert over most areas of the Czech Republic 18:04 EXTREME PRECIPITATION WARNING ISSUED Jičínka flash flood – average catchment rainfall information available to the forecasters at given time [mm] P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Czech Republic Petr Novák, Lucie Březková logo Novyjicin Jičínka flash flood – average catchment rainfall information available to the forecasters at given time [mm] P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Czech Republic Petr Novák, Lucie Březková logo Novyjicin Jičínka flash flood – average catchment rainfall information available to the forecasters at given time [mm] P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Czech Republic Petr Novák, Lucie Březková logo Novyjicin Jičínka flash flood – average catchment rainfall information available to the forecasters at given time [mm] 0-3h COTREC QPF from given time ahead Blue: QPE (cumulative per event) Brown: 3h QPF Blue+brown: QPE+ 3h QPF = event total P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Czech Republic Petr Novák, Lucie Březková logo Novyjicin 18:25 POTENTIAL FLOOD WARNING HYDROLOGICAL MODEL 18:04 EXTREME PRECIPITATION WARNING ISSUED 20:00 FLOOD WARNING ISSUED 08.30: Flood alert over most areas of the Czech Republic Jičínka flash flood – average catchment rainfall information available to the forecasters at given time [mm] P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Czech Republic Petr Novák, Lucie Březková logo Novyjicin 16:45 POTENTIAL WARNING PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS 18:04 EXTREME PRECIPITATION WARNING ISSUED 20:00 FLOOD WARNING ISSUED 18:25 POTENTIAL FLOOD WARNING HYDROLOGICAL MODEL 08.30: Flood alert over most areas of the Czech Republic Jičínka flash flood – average catchment rainfall information available to the forecasters at given time [mm] P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Czech Republic Petr Novák, Lucie Březková logo Novyjicin 16:45 POTENTIAL WARNING PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS 18:04 EXTREME PRECIPITATION WARNING ISSUED 20:00 FLOOD WARNING ISSUED 16:30 POTENTIAL WARNING FUZZY MODEL 18:25 POTENTIAL FLOOD WARNING HYDROLOGICAL MODEL 08.30: Flood alert over most areas of the Czech Republic Jičínka flash flood – average catchment rainfall information available to the forecasters at given time [mm] P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 Planned improvement of the flash flood warning systems • • –Shortening the time interval for accumulation of the precipitation from radar (adjusted by raingauges) –Improving the flow of information (forecasts, warnings, map products) towards customers (Fire and Rescue Service, municipalities, emergency managers, public) –Training of the forecasters –Education of the public, organizing active monitoring at the regional and local level at the alert stage P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 P-Brno, 28.2. 2011 Thank you for your attention • • • plane_fast