II. Climate Change (CO Earth System Control variable Threshold avoided Planetary State of knowledge* process or influenced by Boundary (zone of slow variable uncertainty) Climate Atmospheric CO2 Loss of polar ice sheets. Atmospheric CO2 1. Ample scientific change concentration, Regional climate concentration: 35G evidence. ppm; disruptions. ppm 2. Multiple sub-system Loss of glacial freshwater (350-55G ppm) thresholds. Energy imbalance supplies. 3. Debate on position of at Earth's surface, Weakening of carbon Energy boundary.! W m"2 sinks. imbalance: + l W m"2 (+1.Ü-+1.5 w m"2) Boundary: Atmospheric C02 concentration no higher than 350 ppm Pre-industrial level: 280 ppm Current level (2020) : 413 ppm Diagnosis: Boundary exceeded History of Climate Change Research CC - history 1824 - Joseph Fourier - greenhouse effect in the atmosphere 1861 - John Tyndall - water vapour flyndairCentre* and other qases are GHG 7 ^ for Climate Change Research 1896 - Svante Arhenius - hypothesis on enhancement of GH effect due to increase of C02 in the atmosphere as a consequence of fosil fuels combustion - the prognosis on increase of the temperature by several °C when GHG concentration doubles is still vali Skleníkový iev - histórie 1824 - Joseph Fourier - greenhouse effect in the atmosphere 1861 - John Tyndall - water vapour fiV^dalľCentrď and other qases are GHG 1 ^ for Climate Change Research 1896 - Svante Arhenius - hypothesis on enhancement of GH effect due to increase of C02 in the atmosphere as a consequence of fosil fuels combustion - the prognosis on increase of the temperature by several °C when GHG concentration doubles is still vali 1957 - oceanographer Roger Revelle and chemist Hans Suess showh that oceans can not absorb entire C02 produced by people "Human beings are now carrying out a large scale geophysical experiment.,, CC... and politics 1972 - UNCHE, Stockholm. CC becomes one of the global priorities 1990 - 1st IPCC report - „temperature increase by 0.3-0.6 °C is caused also by the human activities" 1992 - Earth summit - UN Framework Convention on CC 2005 - Kyoto Protocol 2013 - 5th IPCC report scientists are 95% certain that humans are the "dominant cause" of global warming since the 1950s" 2016, 4.11. - Paris Treaty came into force Greenhouse Effect an global Climate Change - Greenhouse effect (GE) - natural atmospheric effect essential for life on the Earth - GE dampens temperature fluctuation between day and night and thus provides favorabla conditions for life 1 • • • • • * * • • • • • ■ \ ' * ■ ■HE Slfl EARTH * • • a MOON Not to scdÖ How Do Greenhouse Gases Actually Work? Greenhouse Gasses (GH) in the atmosphere - the most important GHG is water vapour - H20(g) that creates some 2/3 of greenhouse effect - however H20(g) concentration in the atmosphere is not significantly influenced by human activities - second most important GHG is C02 (~ 20 % GH effect) - last 13 % of GH effect - mainly gases like CH4, N20, CFC Greenhouse Gasses (GH) in the atmosphere the most important GHG is water vapour - H20(g) that creates some 2/3 of greenhouse effect however H20(g) concentration in the atmosphere is not significantly influenced by human activities SeCOnd mOSt impO ;MAJOR CARBON STORES AND TRANSFERS^egUmlrteg) Plant animal decay and last 13% of GH effect - Problem - increase of C02 level in the atmosphere due to the antropogenic disruption of the balance between release and absorption of C02 in the carbon geochemical cycle Vegeiitlon, respiration 121.2 soil and organic IP^™*11 matter 2,261 I Carbon store (in billions of tonnesi Carbon transfer (in billions o1 tonnes per /ear) Fossil fuels and cement production AlmMPhere 56. 6.4 a: IPCC urlh Assessment Report CC indicators Increase of C0o level - C02 level increased more than >25 % since 1950 - level of other greenhouse gases increases as well - main source of this increase is fosil fuels combustion PROXY (INDIRECT) MEASUREMENTS Data source: Reconstruction from ice cores. Credit: jyCJAfi 3flD 34D |3DD O"220 1S0 CURRENT- - HIGH EST HIS Torney iLCO?L JEVEL X IS 1950- \ V \ V J i/v DIRECT MEASUREMENTS: 2005-PRESENT Data source: Monthly measurements (average seasonal cycle removed}. Credit: NOAA 400 35 D 300 250 200 150 100 50 Thousands of Years before today (0 - 1350) J World Greenhouse gas emissions by sector >- (3 DC LU Sector Transportation 13,5% Electricity & Heat 24,6 Other Fuel Combustion Industry Fugitive Emissions Industrial Processes Land Use Change 18 Agriculture 13,5% Waste ^6% End Use/Activity Road "Air- Rail, Ship & Other Transport Residential Buildings Commercial Buildings Unallocated Fuel Combustion Iron 8. Steel 3,2' _-Aluminium/Non-Ferrous Metals—1.4% ^^s-Machinerv „_ ~—1". -Pulp, Paper & Printing 1 Food & Tobacco-1 % Chemicals Cement Other Industry T&D Losses Mining Oil/Gas Extraction, Refining & Processing Deforestation Afforestation Reforestation Harvest/Management Other 18,3% -1,5% -0,5% 2,5% -0,6% Agricultural Energy Use Agriculture Soils Livestock & Manure -Rice Cultivation- -Other Agriculture- Landfills Wastewater. Other Waste Gas All data is for 2000. All calculations are based on C02 equivalents, using 100-year global warming potentials from the IPCC (1996), based on a total global estimate of 41 755 MtCOz equivalent. Land use change includes both emissions and absorptions. Dotted lines represent flows of less than 0.1% percent of total GHG emissions. Source: World Resources Institute, Climate Analysis Indicator Tool (CAIT), Navigating the Numbers: Greenhouse Gas Data and International Climate Policy, December 2005; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 1996 {data for 2000). Other indicators (variables) of CC changes in temperature changes in ice cover in Arctic ocean changes in ice cover in North and South pole sea level rise GLOBAL LAND-OCEAN TEMPERATURE INDEX Data source: NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS). Credit: NASA/GISS 1.0 o E ■1> 0.5 -0.5 1 1880 Annual mean ■ 5 year mean 1900 1920 1940 YEAR 1960 1980 2000 2020 20 H 18 16 14 a; E 12 1 io □ CT 1/1 i 8 6^ Average monthly sea ice extent ANTARCTIC WINTER MAXIMUM ARCTIC WINTER MAXIMUM ARCTIC SUMMER MINIMUM ANTARCTIC SUMMER MINIMUM I I I I I I I I r 1982 1990 1998 2006 2014 Glacier calving in Arctic ocean "CHASING ICE" captures largest glacier calving ever filmed - OFFICIAL VIDEO Less ice in the Arctic ocean - new naval routes from Europe to Asia iDNES.cz I Zprávy iDNEScz >B I Kraje | Spart | Kultura | Ekonomika | Bydlení | Technet | Ona | Revue | Auto | = Další Pondělí 29 září 2014. Michal | Přihlásit X Zahraniční Černá kronika Očima čtenářů Počasí MFDNES Komerční články Ledy tají, lodě testují severní cestu z Asie do Evropy 10. září 2009 10:05 |] D S Projet s nákladem euroasijský kontinent přes Severní ledový oceán se zdá být dobrý nápad. Ušetříte peníze i dny cesty, které by spolkla cesta přes Suezský průplav. Nym =a n tn <"^™iěí první západní rejdařství. Proč až nyní, když jsou výhody tak zřejmé? Ona toti nechtěla příliš spolupracovat. Dvě nákladní lodě hamburského rejdařství v Barentsově mori. | foto: Beluga Shipping Cestu uvolnilo až globální oteplování, kvůli němuž již severní vody nezůstávají vjedné neproniknutelné krustě ledu. ale roztávajía rozpadají se tak. žejimi propluje nejen ledoborec, ale i nákladní loď Alespoň v určitém období roku a na většině cesty. Temperature rise scenarios to 2100 - scientific vs. political uncertainty Predictions vs. reality (image: Saul LoebfAFP/Getty) Five years ago, the last report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change painted a gloomy picture of our planet's future. As climate scientists gather evidence for the next report, due in 2014, Michael Le Page gives seven reasons why things are looking even grimmer ARCTIC WARMING The thick sea ice in the Arctic Ocean was not expected to melt until the end of the century. If current trends continue. EDITORIAL ) Obama should fulfil his 2008 climate promises Extreme events caused by warming are happening much sooner than we thought they would. It's time for Obama to act | Read more - ADVERTISEMENT - FIND WHOYOU'RE LOOKING FOR ON EWSCIENTI CONNECT SE 9 MewSdentist Connect CLIMATE CHANGE i Wiping out top predators messes up the climate 18:00 17 February 2013 |6 comments It isnt just the food chain that is disruDted when CC consequences Consequences of CC regionally specific e.g. increasing vs. decreasing yields in some regions Likely Scenarios if Climate Change Continues I *1 L i *11J (WNCrf&Sffl^LtSs -J» RECCED TOURISM • DECREASED SNOWPACK HEAT WAVES • SEVERE STORMS \ ( rt^Z / ■ REDUCED GROWING SEAS ^£^*WATERSHnRTAG£5pOPLLAT.ONSATR.SK^r- ■ CHAI YIELDS INCREASED DISEASE RECEDING GLACIERS UNSUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT ASCM5 *tJNSUS RISING SEA LEVELS ■ SPECIES EXTINCTION CHANGES IN PRECIPITATION • FLOODING - CHANGING RANGE OF 01 SI Actual sea level 15 million people affected 17T000 km2 of land submerged 18 million people affected 22,000 km* of land subm&ged IF BIODIVERSITY WHAT YOU CAW DO TO HELP ► tiiIsJ Pwrel on Climsu ARCTIC 5th IPCC Assessment Report R|Ča1 y'tfri&S a 4»= Earlier greening, leaf emergency and fruiting In temperate and boreal trees {high confidence, major cofltntLrtkm from climate change] • Increased colon ization of alien plant species in Europe, beyond a baseline of some invasion [medium confidence, major contri button from climate change] • Earlier anrival of migratory birds in Europe since 1970 (medium confidence, major contribution from climate change) • U pward shift in tree-line in Europe, beyond changes due to land use (low confidence, major contribution from clinate change) • Increasing burnt forest areas during recent decades in Portugal and Greece, beyond some increase due to land use [high confidence, major contribution from climate change) [4.3,18.3, Tables 18-7 and23-S] • Northward distributional shifts of zooplanlcton, fishes, seabids, and bentfiic invertebrates in northeast Atlantic [high confidence, major contribution from climate change) ■ Northward and depth shift in distribution of many fish species across European seas (medium confidence, major contribution from climate charge) ■ Plankton phenology changes in northeast Atlantic (meoVum conrVcfejrce, major contribution from climate charge) • Spread of warm water species Into the Mediterranean, beyond changes due to Invasive species and human Impacts [medium confidence, major contribution from ciimate change) [6.3,23.fi, 30.5, Tables fi-2 and 1S-8, Bones 6-1 and CC-MB| • Shift from cold-related mortality to heat-related mortality in England and Wales, beyond changes due to eiposure and health care {jaw confidence, major contribution Irom climate change! • Impacts on livelihoods of Sami people in northern Europe, beyond effects of economic and sociopolitical charges (medium confidence, major contribution from climate change) • Stagnation of wheat yields In some ccuntrkf ki recent decades, despite Improved technology [medium confidence, minor contribution from climate change) • Positive yield Impacts for some crops mainly in northern Europe, beyond increase doe to improved technology (jnedium confidence, minor contributior from climate change) • Spread of Muetongue virus in sheep and of ticks across parts of Europe [medium confidence, minor contribution from climate change) Ir-Mr Hodsiäl ťrdiiún gndŕgr sfj level effects ^ lV<:C^< Mann* ecosystems .....:■ Outlined symbols = Minor contribution of cl i mate change Filled symbol s = Major conlribulion of climate clu ruje Main consequences of CC - summary Present trends caused by CC. Very likely >90 %, Likely >60 % Future trends caused by CC. Virtually certain >99 %, Very likely >90 %, Likely >60 % Phenomena Cold days, cold nights and frost less frequent over land areas More frequent hot days and nights Heat waves more frequent over most land areas Increased incidence of extreme high sea level * Global area affected by drought has increased (since 1970s) Likelihood that trend occurred in late 20th century Very likely Very likely Likely Likely Likely in some regions Increase in intense tropical cyclone activity Likely in some regions in North Atlantic (since 1970) * Excluding tsunamis, which are not due to climate change. Phenomena Contraction of snow cover areas, increased thaw in permafrost regions, decrease in sea ice extent Increased frequency of hot extremes, heat waves and heavy precipitation Increase in tropical cyclone intensity Precipitation increases in high latitudes Precipitation decreases in subtropical land regions Decreased water resources in many semi-arid areas, including western U.S. and Mediterranean basin Likelihood of trend Virtually certain Very likely to occur Likely to occur Very likely to occur Very likely to occur High confidence - Scientific language is very brief and talking in the words of probability People must hear both sides of the climate story BJORN LOMBORG » HERALD SUN * APRIL 01, 2014 12:00AM ^\ 17 iCRFR ENDS' ACTIVITY o ± NEW! Discover news with your friends. Give it a try. To get going, simply connect with your favourite social network: LOGIN Ads By Google Cukrovka? www.clinlife.cz/Cukroviia Klinické hodnocení hledá dobrovolníky. Další informace zde. GLOBAL WARMING THREAT HEIGHTENED: UN ... Global warming poses a growing threat to billions of people, top scientists say in a U.N. report that urges swift action to counterthe effects of carbon Auto play THE media's response to the latest instalment of the UN Climate Panel report will inevitably dwell on the negative effects of global warming — how it will reduce agricultural yields, increase heatwaves and drown communities.__ Moral dimension of CC „...more heat will damage crop growth in many warmer climates, but it means better agricultural production in cold countries. And, C02 is a fertiliser — commercial greenhouses pump in extra C02 to grow bigger tomatoes. So overall, we can expect agriculture to gain from global warming in the short and medium term..." B. Lomborg - yes, increasing yields, but mainly in countries with the actual overproduction, while the agrarian countries in developing world (with significant hunger) will experience even drop in the production HISTORIES 1 August 2012 Climate change: The great civilisation destroyer? War and unrest and the collapse of many mighty empires, often followed changes in loca I climes. Is this more than a coincidence? More than coincidence? ©NewSdentist ■ic dec I ■ ■ ic ar i: ■ ill I o- ..I r:y c ivi I \-.iX or \ c □ inci d c;! I r c c-r iod^ o" l I r- Li to 11- .j nc c-. jnd t ■ ic rc L: r-j diso c or re let iü ■ i-.- jetwee ■ i i m jtc i h ■ 11 iqpo m ii -.t r Dr '.-i^c an C the frequency of warsras data from Europe shows (right) Mycenaean;-1100 Etc Centuries-long dry period Western Roman Empire -250 to 500 AD Clinule became extremely variable Maya -900 AO Century-long dry period Moche "600 AO Floods and draught y TiWcinakn -1100 AD CeniurleS'long dry period J?5 Temperature in northern hemisphere Egyptian New Kingdom -1100BC Centuries I ong. dry period Akkadian Empire -2200 sc Centuries-long dry period Hittites -1200 BC ■.>rr.jriF\-lor:| dry period Tang Dynasty 907 AD Century-long üry period Hanrappan -1800 BC ^hitt in mnnsncnrgin^ Khmer Empire -13D0 AD Floods and droughit 1500 1600 1700 1B00 Year {□atgin nDimsllsedunltsto^hüw relative amplitude] Solutions of CC? The Nobel Peace Prize 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Al Gore Share this: UBODC^DB The Nobel Peace Prize 2007 IPCC INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANCE IP1 ' WMO UNEP I nte rgove r n in e nta I Panel or Climate Charge (IPCC) Prize share: 1/2 Photo: Ken Opprann Albert Arnold (Al) Gore Jr. Prize share: 1/2 The Nobel Peace Prize 2007 was awarded jointly to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change {IPCC) and Albert Arnold (Al} Gore J r. "for their efforts to build up and disseminate greater knowledge about man-made c/imate change, and to fay the foundations for the measures that are needed to counteract such change" Politics on CC - main aim - decrease the GHG emissions, mainly C02 - 1992: UN Framework Convention on Climate Change - 1997: Kyoto protocol (in force from 2005) - industrial countries should decrease their GHG emissions untill the year 2012 for 4.2 % compared to the year 1990 - different threshold for different countries (e.g. EU 8%) - however, industrial countries (Annex I countries with Kyoto targets) contributed „only" with 24 % of global C02 emission (2010) Participation in the Kyoto Protocol | Signed and ratified Signed, ratification pending | Signed, ratification declined [citation needed] Non-signatory Kyoto protocol - result (2012) - industrial countries (Annex I countries with Kyoto targets) reduced their emissions for 24.2 % ! (much more than promissed target 5.2 %) - however, emission in other countries have risen so fast, that global C02 emissions increased by 32 % from 1990 to 2010 © ISO ISO 140 130 % change in CO2em.(2014) K UJ h- (O > b < - b. w o 5 DIRECT MEASUREMENTS: 2005-PRESENT Data source: Monthly measurements (average seasonal cycle removed). Credit: NQAA 200e 2008 2010 2012 2014 201e YEAR Paris treaty (2015) - continuation of the prolonged Kyoto protocol (2020) - aim: Limit the temperature rise not more than 2 °C compared to pre-industrial era - came into force April 4th 2016 How to decrease COo emmisions? decrease the fossil fuels consumption - increase efficiency of the industr. production - end the non-effective industr. production - save the energy and material economic tools to decrease C02 - International Emission Trading (IET) bio-fuels? Probably not... Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 7, 11191-11205, 2007 www.atmos-criem-priys-discuss.net/7/11191/2007/ © Author(s) 2007. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License. Atmospheric JyO. Chemistry f^rgf and Physics ^*™^ Discussions Geo-engineering? N20 release from agro-biofuel production negates global warming reduction by replacing fossil fuels P. J. Crutzen1-23, A. R. Mosier4, K. A. Smith6, and W. Winiwarter36 1Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Department of Atmospheric Chemistry, Mainz, Germany !Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, La Jolla, USA 'international Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (I IASA), Laxenburg, Austria ■*Mount Pleasant, SC, USA &School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK 6Austrian Research Centers - ARC, Vienna, Austria Received: 28 June 2007-Accepted: 19 July 2007 - Published: 1 August 2007 Correspondence to: R J Crutzen (crutzen@mpch-mainz.mpg.de) Geo-eqineerinq - types and opportunities Transforming Earth It is now possible to identify the methods and locations where planetary geoengineering will have to take place ) PLANT TREES Plant forests and regL S*1 Trees are a ca rbon si n growing, and notalloi BECCS (Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage) Suck out atmospheric C02 by growing biofuel crops like sugar cane, burn them for energy, capture the resulting C02, and bury it. Location; the tropics, where growth is fastest BIOCHAR Burn plant material without oxygen to make charcoal-like "biochar", This carbon store can then be buried in soil, where it acts as a fertiliser. Location: anywhere with rich plant growth IRON FERTILISATION Trigger photosynthetic plankton blooms in the ocean by dumping iron into areas that don't have much. If the plankton sinks, carbon is stored. Location: iron-depleted regions of the DAC (Direct air capture) Bui!d shipping-container-sized boxes full of a chemical "sponge" that sucks C02 out of the air, ready for burial. You may need 100 million of them, w% Location: windy and dry areas. More wind means more ai r is drive n th rough t he boxes, increasing uptake Throw lime into dissolved C021 may also help cc ■ 1 acidification. Location: coral f : ocean. It reacts with )rm carbonates. This s by reducing ocean Annual carbon savings by 2100 Bars show maximum possible for each technology Cost per tonne of C0Z captured Plant trees $20-100 BECCS BHHi I $50-130 Biochar| $10-300 Direct air capture ■ $40-600 Iran fertilisation | $30-300 Ocean liming ■ $50-180 ) ENHANCED WEATHERING Crush common minerals like olivine to powder to increase surface area for reacting with C02 and water. Location: proceeds fastest in warm, wet conditions, so areas such as humid coasts and rivers are best Cosiper tonne Ocean liming | Enhanced weathering | $80- 0 2 4 6 8 Gigatonnes of carbon peryear (2010 annual emissions were 10 Ct) $80-2000 SM* ® ^® © @®