II. Climate Change (CO Earth System Control variable Threshold avoided Planetary State of knowledge* process or influenced by Boundary (zone of slow variable uncertainty) Climate Atmospheric CO2 Loss of polar ice sheets. Atmospheric CO2 1. Ample scientific change concentration, Regional climate concentration: 35G evidence. ppm; disruptions. ppm 2. Multiple sub-system Loss of glacial freshwater (350-55G ppm) thresholds. Energy imbalance supplies. 3. Debate on position of at Earth's surface, Weakening of carbon Energy boundary.! W m"2 sinks. imbalance: + l W m"2 (+1.Ü-+1.5 w m"2) Boundary: Atmospheric C02 concentration no higher than 350 ppm Pre-industrial level: 280 ppm Current level (2020) : 413 ppm Diagnosis: Boundary exceeded History of Climate Change Research -^\Can you guess the year when the greenhouse effect was DISCOVERED? 41 CC - history 1824 - Joseph Fourier - greenhouse effect in the atmosphere 1861 - John Tyndall - water vapour and other gases are GHG TyndalTCentre for Climate Change Research 1896 - Svante Arhenius - hypothesis on enhancement of GH effect due to increase of C02 in the atmosphere as a consequence of fosil fuels combustion - the prognosis on increase of the temperature by several °C when GHG concentration doubles is still vali Sit CC - history 1824 - Joseph Fourier - greenhouse effect in the atmosphere 1861 - John Tyndall - water vapour and other gases are GHG TyndalTCentre for Climate Change Research 1896 - Svante Arhenius - hypothesis on enhancement of GH effect due to increase of C02 in the atmosphere as a consequence of fosil fuels combustion - the prognosis on increase of the temperature by several °C when GHG concentration doubles is still vali Sit 1957 - oceanographer Roger Revelle and chemist Hans Suess shown that oceans can not absorb entire C02 produced by people "Human beings are now carrying out a large scale geophysical experiment.,, Monthly mean CO ? concentration Maura Loa ■1:0 1950-Charles David Keeling , continuous measurements ! taken at the Mauna Loa ! Observatory since 1950 (till now) :6i c o 3M- 13Lu 1. D ■ JUL1 YEar 20 10 QiLa : Qi. ftrtw Tail, NaAA'ESRL Owww jlI lieu*pjutaml'a^a>L'4iEL | jid CC--- and politics 1972 - UNCHE, Stockholm. becomes one of the global priorities 1990 - 1st IPCC report - „temperature increase by 0.3-0.6 °C is caused also by the human activities" 1992 - Earth summit- UN Framework Convention on CC 2005 - Kyoto Protocol 2013 - 5th IPCC report „Scientists are 95% certain that humans are the "dominant cause" of global warming since the 1950s11 2016, 4.11. - Paris Treaty came into force 2022- 6th IPCC report (synthesis) Greenhouse Effect an global Climate Change - Greenhouse effect (GE) - natural atmospheric effect essential for life on the Earth - GE dampens temperature fluctuation between day and night and thus provides favorable conditions for life How Do Greenhouse Gases Actually Work? Greenhouse Gasses (GH) in the atmosphere the most important GHG is water vapour - H20(g) that creates some 2/3 of greenhouse effect however H20(g) concentration in the atmosphere is not significantly influenced by human activities second most important GHG is C02 (~ 20 % GH effect) last 13 % of GH effect - mainly gases like CH4, N20, CFC Water Carbon Dioxide Methane Nitrous Oxide o#o Atmospheric Concentration 0.01-4%* 385 pom 1797 ppb 322 ppb Rate of Increase n/a 1.5 ppm/yr 7.0 ppb/yr 0.8 ppb/yr Atmospheric Lifetime Very short 1-5 days Variable 5-200 yr 12 yr 120 yr Global Warming Potential (GWP) nraf 1 21 310 Annual Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector Industrial processes 16.8% Transportation fuels 14.0% Agricultural byproducts Fossil fuel retrieval, processing, and distribution Power stations 21.3% Waste disposal and treatment 3.4% 10.0% Land use and biomass burning 11.3% 10 3% Bes'dential, commercial, and other sources ' The amount of water vapor in trie air varies according to temperature and density of air (usually -1-3% of troposphere) t Water vapor levels vary strongly according to region, so rates of change and warming potential cannot be assessed 206% j^i -\ 29-5% 19.2% 12.9% Carbon Dioxide (7296 of total) 40.0% 4.8% 6.6% 2H.fi% 18.1% Methane (18% of total) 26 0% Nitrous Oxide [9% of total) 62.0% 1.1% 1.5% 2.3% 5.9% Greenhouse Gasses (GH) in the atmosphere the most important GHG is water vapour - H20(g) that creates some 2/3 of greenhouse effect however H20(g) concentration in the atmosphere is not significantly influenced by human activities second most important Qjj - last 13% of GH effect -Problem - increase of C02 level in the atmosphere due to the antropogenic action -disruption of the balance between release and absorption of C02 in the carbon geochemical cycle MAJOR CARBON STORES AND TRANSFERS(cstimatts) Plant animal decay and Vegetation, respiration 121.2 sail and organic matter Carbon store (in billions of1 tonnes) Carbon lransfer (in billions- o1 tonnes per yea\) Fossil fuels and »me.nl produelion Almosphere ^ 6.4 Global warming / cooling rates over the past 2,000 years "E 1.5-1 6~ 200 400 600 800 ^ 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 ~2000 Year CE GLACIAL/INTERGLACIAL PERIOD Emitted Compound Resulting Atmospheric Drivers Radiative Forcing by Emissions and Drivers Level of Confidence T C02 H205" 03 CH, 0, CFCs HCFCs I 1.6B [1.33 to 2.03] VH 0.97 [0.74 to 1.20) H 0.18 [0.01 to 0.35] H 0 17 [0.13 to 0 21] VH C02 CH, 03 CO, CH4 03 Wfirate CH; 03 Mineral Dust Sulphate Nitrate Organic Carbon Black Carbon Cloud Adjustments due to Aerosols 0.23 [0.16 to 0.30] M 0.10 [0.05 to 0.15] M -0.15 [-0.34 to 0.03] M 0.27 [-0.77 to 0.23] -0.55 [-1.33 to-0.06] H Albedo Change due to Land Use Changesm Solar frradiance -0.15 [-0.25 to-0.05] 0.05 [0.00 to 0.10] M M Total Anthropogenic RF relative to 1750 2.29 [1.13 to 3.33] -1 H 1.25 [0.64 to 1.86] H 0.57 [0.29 to 0.85] 10 1 2 3 Radiative Forcing relative to 1750 (W nr2) CC indicators Increase of C0o level - C02 level increased more than >25 % since 1950 - level of other greenhouse gases increases as well - main source of this increase is fosil fuels combustion PROXY (INDIRECT) MEASUREMENTS Data source: Reconstruction from ice cores. Credit: m&& 390 34 0 2 1 260 & cf 220 ISO CUR RENT- —^ HIGH ■ST HIS TO Ritt W-CO., L EVEL IS 1950- \ »1 \ i* { ' V J DIRECT MEASUREMENTS: 2005-PRESENT Data source: Monthly measurements [average seasonal cycle removed}. Credit: NOAA o 405 o o 400 350 300 250 ?DD 150 100 50 Thousands of Years boforc today (0 - 1S50) World Greenhouse gas emissions by sector >- o LU Sector Transportation 13,5% Electricity & Heat 24,6 Other Fuel Combustion Industry Fugitive Emissions Industrial Processes Land Use Change 18 Agriculture 13,5% Waste 3,6% End Use/Activity Road "Air— 9,9% "1.6%' Rail, Ship & Other Transport Residential Buildings 9,9% Commercial Buildings 5,4% Unallocated Fuel Combustion Iron & Steel _-Aluminium/Non-Ferrous Metals—1 Pulp, Paper & Printing—T Foodä, Tobacco-1 % Chemicais Cement Other Industry T&D Losses Coal Mining Oil/Gas Extraction, 6,3% Refining & Processing Deforestation 18,3% Afforestation -1,5% Reforestation -0,5% Harvest/Management 2,5% Other -0,6% Agricultural Energy Use Agriculture Sous Livestock & Manure -Rice Cultivation- -Other Agriculture- Landfills Wastewater. Other Waste Gas All data is for 2000. All calculations are based on C02 equivalents, using 100-year global warming potentials from the IPCC (1996), based on a total global estimate of 41 755 MtC02 equivalent. Land use change includes both emissions and absorptions. Dotted lines represent flows of less than 0.1% percent of total GHG emissions. Source: World Resources Institute, Climate Analysis Indicator Tool (CAIT), Navigating the Numbers: Greenhouse Gas Data and International Climate Policy, December 2005; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 1996 (data for 2000). Other indicators (variables) of CC changes in temperature changes in ice cover in Arctic ocean changes in ice cover in North and South pole sea level rise GLOBAL LAND-OCEAN TEMPERATURE INDEX Data source: NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GI33) Credit: NASA/GISS I 0 o _> CD E o > Zi m i_ i> Q_ 0.5 ^0.5 1880 Annual mean ■ 5 year mean 0 • b a 1900 1920 1940 1960 _YEAR_ 1980 2000 2020 20 ■ 18 16 14 tu E 12 1 io CT i 8 Average monthly sea ice extent ANTARCTIC WINTER MAXIMUM ARCTIC WINTER MAXIMUM ARCTIC SUMMER MINIMUM ANTARCTIC SUMMER MINIMUM I I I I I I I I r 1982 1990 1998 2006 2014 Less ice in the Arctic ocean - new naval routes from Europe to Asia iDNES.cz I Zprávy I Kraje | Spart | Kultura | Ekonomika | Bydlení | Technet | Ona | Revue | Auto | = Další Pondělí 29. září 2014. Michal | Přihlásit X iDNES.cz Zahraniční Černá kronika Očima čtenářů Počasí MFDNES Komerční články Ledy tají, lodě testují severní cestu z Asie do Evropy 10. září 2009 10:05 |] D S Projet s nákladem euroasijský kontinent přes Severní ledový oceán se zdá být dobrý nápad. Ušetříte peníze i dny cesty, které by spolkla cesta přes Suezský průplav. Nym =° n tn ^L-nnčí první západní rejdařství. Proč až nyní, když jsou výhody tak zřejmé? Ona tot nechtěla příliš spolupracovat. Dvě nákladní lodé hamburského rejdarství v Barentsově mori. | foto: Beluga Shipping Cestu uvolnilo až globální oteplování, kvůli němuž již severní vody nezůstávají v jedné neproniknutelné krustě ledu. ale roztávajía rozpadají se tak. žejimi propluje nejen ledoborec, ale i nákladní loď. Alespoň v určitém období roku a na většině cesty. Glacier calving in Arctic ocean "CHASING ICE" captures largest glacier calving ever filmed - OFFICIAL VIDEO Temperature rise scenarios to 2100 - scientific vs. political uncertainty CC consequences Consequences of CC regionally specific e.g. increasing vs. decreasing yields in some regions Likely Scenarios if Climate Change Continues t SELECT CLIMATE IMPACTS TuueATtupn pi li Turk REDUCTIONS IN SEA ICE # INCREASING YIELDS : * DECREASED SNDWPACK * SEVERE STORMS SPECIES LOSSES REDUCED TOURISM HEAT WAVES (•CH^NÖNGYIELDS / m REDUCED GROWING SEASONS *WISUS WATER SH0«TAG6g populAT|ONS „ Shf^/^T .\ INCREASED DISEASE RECEDING GLACIERS UNSUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT * RISING SEA LEVELS * SPECIES EXTINCTION CHANGES ÍN PRECIPITATION FLOODING CHANGING RANGE OF DISI FBIOtíllfERSITY HANGING FORESTS WHAT YOU CAW DO TO HELP ► | very heavily populated aeraas Actual sea level 15 million people affected 17,000 km* of land submerged 18 million people affected 22,000 km2 of land submerged ARCTiC #= As 4=*= 4*5 Hz 5th IPCC Assessment Report h America) iSL= a 4»= Plankton phenology changes in northeast Atlantic (merfrum confidence, major contribution from climate change) ■ Spread of warm water species Into the Mediterranean, beyond changes due to invasive species and human Impacts (mental confidence, major contribution from climate change) [6.3,23.fi, 30.5, Tables fi-2 and 13-8, Boies 6-1 and CC-MBI. * Shift from cold-related mortality to heat-related mortality in England and Wales, beyond changes due to eiposure and health care {jaw confidence, major contribution from climate change) • Impacts on livelihoods of Sami people in northern Europe, beyond effects of economic and sociopolitical changes (medium confidence, major contribution from climate change) ♦ Stagnation of wheat yields In some countries ki recent decades, despite Improved technology [medium confidence, minor contribution irom climate change) ' Positive yield impacts (or some crops mainly in northern Europe, beyond increase due to improved technology (medium confidence, minor contribution from climate change) ■ Spread ■: I :.. i;1 rii igue virus in sheqi and ol ticks across parts of Europe (metrtwm confidence, m nor contribution from climate channel [13.4. 73.4-5,Table 18-9, Figure 7-2] Ccisial t-fQiion andror sea level effects C^pi. Marin* ecosystems Outlined; symbols = Minor contribution of climate change Filled symbols = Major tonlribulion of climate diirwjo Main consequences of CC - summary Present trends caused by CC. Very likely >90 %, Likely >60 % Future trends caused by CC. Virtually certain >99 %, Very likely >90 %, Likely >60 % Phenomena Cold days, cold nights and frost less frequent over land areas More frequent hot days and nights Heat waves more frequent over most land areas Increased incidence of extreme high sea level * Global area affected by drought has increased (since 1970s) Increase in intense tropical cyclone activity in North Atlantic (since 1970) Likelihood that trend occurred in late 20th century Very likely Very likely Likely Likely Likely in some regions Likely in some regions * Excluding tsunamis, which are not due to climate change. Phenomena Contraction of snow cover areas, increased thaw in permafrost regions, decrease in sea ice extent Increased frequency of hot extremes, heat waves and heavy precipitation Increase in tropical cyclone intensity Precipitation increases in high latitudes Precipitation decreases in subtropical land regions Decreased water resources in many semi-arid areas, including western U.S. and Mediterranean basin Likelihood of trend Virtually certain Very likely to occur Likely to occur Very likely to occur Very likely to occur High confidence - Scientific language is very brief and talking in the words of probability Keeping Your Cool on the Climate Debate with Bjorn Lomborg 54 588 zhlliadriliti ■ 1 0. 3.2021 it 1,1 TIS. m 68 ^4 ZDIELANIE =+ ULOZlt https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OTe 5al2APrQ Moral dimension of CC „...more heat will damage crop growth in many warmer climates, but it means better agricultural production in cold countries. And, C02 is a fertiliser — commercial greenhouses pump in extra C02 to grow bigger tomatoes. So overall, we can expect agriculture to gain from global warming in the short and medium term..." B. Lomborg - yes, increasing yields, but mainly in countries with the actual overproduction, while the agrarian countries in developing world (with significant hunger) will experience even drop in the production HISTORIES 1 August 2012 Climate change: The great civilisation destroyer? War and unrest and the collapse of many mighty empires, often followed changes in loca I dimes. Is this more than a coincidence? i_ More than coincidence? ©NewSdentist The decline and fall of many civilisations coincided with periods of climate change, and there are also correlations between climate change, population size and the frequency of wart, a^ data from Europe showi (rigtit) Mycenaean*-1100 EC Centura- long dry period Temperature in northern hemisphere Western Roman Empire ^250 to 500 AD -Ii.....I :■:.!■ ■ extremely variable Hittrtes -1200 BC :(jerihJFl&5-lonq dry period Maya -900 AD Cerctury-lrjng dry period Tang Dynasty 907 AD lentmy-long flry period Moche -600 AO Floods aid dreugrn ^ Egyptian New Kingdom -1100 BC tenturies-1 ong dry pe Nod Akkadian Empire -2200 Bt (lenturies-hong dry period Tiwanafcu -1100 AD CQnturies-kmg dry per to rJ Hanrappan -lflOO Bt Shift in rtirjnscon rairti Khmer Empire "1300 AD Flmdt and drought Population size war frequency 15U0 1600 1700 LBOU Year [OHta In normalised umre to ?how relative arr plltude) Solutions of CC? 0 The Nobel Peace Prize 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Al Gore Sh are this: I? Q □ I ~°HB The Nobel Peace Prize 2007 IPCC INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANCE UNEP Wl Intergovernmental Panel or Climate Change (IPCC) Prize shares 1/2 Photo: Ken Opprann Albert Arnold (Al) Gore Jr. Prize share: 1/2 The Nobel Peace Prize 2007 was awarded jointly to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change {IPCC) and Albert Arnold (Al) Gore J r. "for their efforts to build up and disseminate greater knowledge about man-made climate change, and to fay the foundations for the measures that are needed to counteract such change" Politics on CC - main aim - decrease the GHG emissions, mainly C02 - 1992: UN Framework Convention on Climate Change - 1997: Kyoto protocol (in force from 2005) - industrial countries should decrease their GHG emissions untill the year 2012 for 4.2 % compared to the year 1990 - different threshold for different countries (e.g. EU 8%) - however, industrial countries (Annex I countries with Kyoto targets) contributed „only" with 24 % of global C02 emission (2010) Participation in the Kyoto Protocol Signed and ratified Signed, ratification pending | Signed, ratification declined [citation needed] Non-signatory Kyoto protocol - result (2012) iso 150 uc 130 129 110 100 N CO ft SO 50 « ■( M 10 c industrial countries (Annex I countries with Kyoto targets) reduced their emissions for 24.2 % ! (much more than promissed target 5.2 %) however, emission in other countries have risen so fast, that global C02 emissions increased by 32 % from 1990 to 2010 © extension of the Kyoto Protocol until 2020 certain countries (the EU and a few other countries) have committed themselves to further reducing C02 emissions. EU e.g. by 20-30% compared to 1990 Average - 18% - generally achieved % change in C02 em.(2014) 1990 = 100 I h O > O |)l Sd -1 IE -i qj III IS 3 N Di ^ I O E * U - £ £ 2 3 a si 5 s I- « >■ t a. w u S DIRECT MEASUREMENTS: 2005-PRESENT Data source: Monthly measurements (average seasonal cycle removed). Credit: NQAA 375 200.6 2010 2012 2014 2016 YEAR Paris treaty (2015) - continuation of the prolonged Kyoto protocol (2020) - aim: Limit the temperature rise not more than 2 °C compared to pre-industrial era - came into force April 4th 2016 How to decrease COo emmisions? decrease the fossil fuels consumption - increase efficiency of the industr. production - end the non-effective industr. production - save the energy and material economic tools to decrease C02 - International Emission Trading (IET) bio-fuels? Probably not... Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 7, 11191-11205, 2007 www. atmos-chem-phys-discuss. net/7/11191 /2007/ © Author(s) 2007. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License. Atmospheric JV-A Chemistry /^yj and Physics Discussions Geo-engineering? N20 release from agro-biofuel production negates global warming reduction by replacing fossil fuels P. J. Crutzen1'23, A. R. Mosier4, K. A. Smith6, and W. Winiwarter3'6 1Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Department of Atmospheric Chemistry, Mainz, Germany 2Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, La Jolla, USA international Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (NASA), Laxenburg, Austria 4Mount Pleasant, SC, USA 5School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK 6 Austrian Research Centers-ARC, Vienna, Austria Received: 28 June 2007 - Accepted: 19 July 2007 - Published: 1 August 2007 Correspondence to: P. J. Crutzen (crutzen@mpch-mainz.mpg.de) Geo-eqineerinq - types and opportunities Transforming Earth It is now possible to identify the methods and locations where planetary geoengineering will have to take place (7) PLANT TREES Plant forests and regularly harvest them, j Trees areacarbonsinkaslongas they are growing, and not allowed to rot. Location: unused farmland BECCS (Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage) Suck out atmospheric C02 by growi ng biof uel crops like sugar cane, burn them for energy, capture the resulting C02, K a and bury it. (BJ BIOCHAR Burn plant material without oxygen to make charcoal -like "biochar". This carbon store can then be buried in soiI, where it acts as a fertiliser. Location: anywhere with rich plant growth (DA) DAC (Direct air capture) Build shipping-container-sized boxes full of a chemical "sponge" that sucks C02 out of the air, ready for burial. You may need 100 million of them. Location: windy and dry areas. More wind means more air is driven th rough t he boxes, increasing uptake © IRON FERTILISATION Trigger photosynthetic plankton blooms in the ocean by dumping iron into areas that don't have much. If the plankton sinks, carbon is stored. Location: iron-depleted regions of the | OCEAN LIMING Th row lime into the ocean, it reacts with dissolved C02 to form carbonates. This may also help corals by reducing ocean 11 acidification. I ENHANCED WEATHERING Crush common minerals like olivine to powder to increase surface area for reacting with C02 and water. Location: proceeds fastest in warm, wet cond itions, so areas such as humid coasts and rivers are best Greta and Fridays for Future