ONE-CHILD ETHICS AS THE ONLY SOLUTION
TO OUR OVERPOPULATION CRISIS
JAN GREGUŠ
DEPARTMENT OF PHILOSOPHY, MASARYK UNIVERSITY, BRNO
CENTRE OF PRENATAL DIAGNOSTICS, BRNO
CENTRE OF OUTPATIENT GYNAECOLOGY AND PRIMARY CARE, BRNO
SUSTAINABILITY
SUSTAINABILITY AS AN IDEAL (CONCEPT):
• THE GOAL OF SUSTAINABILITY = TO “CREATE AND MAINTAIN CONDITIONS, UNDER WHICH HUMANS
AND NATURE CAN EXIST IN PRODUCTIVE HARMONY, THAT PERMIT FULFILLING THE SOCIAL, ECONOMIC,
AND OTHER REQUIREMENTS OF PRESENT AND FUTURE GENERATIONS” (NEPA 1969)
• A SUSTAINABLE APPROACH IS BASED ON THREE PILLARS OF SUSTAINABILITY
• AS SUCH, IT PROTECTS THE ENVIRONMENT, STRENGTHENS COMMUNITIES, AND FOSTERS PROSPERITY
SUSTAINABILITY
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS:
• A SET OF GOALS ACCEPTED IN 2015 AFTER MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS HAVE BEEN MISSED
• THE GOAL = TO CREATE A WORLD IN WHICH WE CAN ALL THRIVE AND PROSPER
“END POVERTY, PROTECT THE PLANET, AND ENSURE PROSPERITY FOR ALL” (UN 2015)
• HEADS OF GOVERNMENTS HAVE UNDERTAKEN THE RESPONSIBILITY TO ACHIEVE SDG BY 2030
UNSUSTAINABILITY
UNSUSTAINABILITY AS A FACT:
• THE GOAL OF SUSTAINABILITY IS TO MAINTAIN EQUILIBRIUM BETWEEN HUMANITY AND NATURE
• HUMANITY IS NOT GETTING ANY NEARER TO THIS GOAL
ON THE CONTRARY, IT IS GOING THE OPPOSITE WAY DESPITE MANY (SCIENTIFIC) WARNINGS:
• THE POPULATION BOMB (1968)
• THE LIMITS TO GROWTH (1972)
• WORLD SCIENTISTS’ WARNING TO HUMANITY (1992)
• WORLD SCIENTISTS’ WARNING TO HUMANITY: A SECOND NOTICE (2017)
• SCIENTISTS’ WARNING OF A CLIMATE EMERGENCY (2019), AND MANY MORE
• THE MAIN CAUSES OF UNSUSTAINABILITY = HUMAN NUMBERS, PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION
THE WORLD’S WORST ENEMY
PROBLEMS MULTIPLIED BY MULTIPLICATION: TOO MANY OF US CONSUMER-POLLUTERS
UNSUSTAINABILITY
CONSEQUENCES OF OUR UNSUSTAINABLE NUMBERS:
• WATER SCARCITY, FOOD INSECURITY, MASS STARVATION, MALNUTRITION
• PANDEMIC EMERGENCE, INADEQUATE HEALTHCARE SERVICES
• INCREASED POVERTY, SLOWING ECONOMIC GROWTH, INADEQUATE HOUSING
• FORCED MIGRATION, CLIMATE REFUGEES
• RADICALIZATION, EXTREMISM, WIDESPREAD CONFLICT, RESOURCE-DRIVEN WARS
• MAJOR OBSTACLE TO ACHIEVING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS
(1) NO POVERTY, (2) ZERO HUNGER, (3) GOOD HEALTH AND WELL-BEING
UNSUSTAINABILITY
CONSEQUENCES OF OUR UNSUSTAINABLE NUMBERS:
• CLIMATE CHANGE
• ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION AND POLLUTION
• RESOURCE DEPLETION
• INCREASE IN MUNICIPAL WASTE
• BIODIVERSITY LOSS
• DEFORESTATION, DESERTIFICATION
• MASS SPECIES EXTINCTION (SPECIES GENOCIDE)
IF HUMANITY WANTS TO AVOID ALL THESE NEGATIVE PHENOMENA,
POPULATION GROWTH MUST BE STOPPED AND REVERSED.
BUT TO WHICH SIZE? AND HOW TO DO IT ETHICALLY AND HUMANELY?
UNSUSTAINABLE HUMANITY
• SO FAR, HUMANITY OF 7.9 BILLION, RISING WITH GROWTH OF OVER 80 MILLION A YEAR
• NO SIGN OF SLOWING DOWN IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE (DESPITE SLOWING POPULATION
GROWTH & FERTILITY DECREASE) – FRESH MEDIUM-VARIANT PROJECTIONS (UN 2022) ARE:
• 8 BILLION (11/2022) … 8.5 BILLION (2030) … 9.7 BILLION (2050) … 10.4 BILLION (2100)
SUSTAINABLE HUMANITY
• STUDIES FOR A LONG-TERM SUSTAINABLE HUMANITY ARE BASED ON VARIOUS CRITERIA AND ASSUMPTIONS:
• 1.5 – 2 BILLION (DAILY ET AL. 1994)
• 3 BILLION (PIMENTAL ET AL. 1994)
• 2 BILLION (DAILY ET AL. 2010)
• 3.1 BILLION (LIANOS AND PSEIRIDIS 2016)
• 3 BILLION (TUCKER 2019)
• 0.5 – 5 BILLION (DASGUPTA 2019)
• OBVIOUSLY, MORE STUDIES, DISCUSSION, AND GENERAL CONSENSUS ON THE IDEAL NUMBER ARE NEEDED
• NEVERTHELESS, ONE THING IS CRYSTAL CLEAR – HUMANITY IS FAR BEYOND BEING SUSTAINABLE
ONE-CHILD REALITY
.
(FERGUSON AND RIMMER 2017)
ONE-CHILD REALITY
• ONE-CHILD REALITY (ETHICS OR POLITICS) IS THE ONLY SOLUTION TO OUR OVERPOPULATION CRISIS:
• THE 2017 STUDY EXPLORES THE HYPOTHETICAL RESULTS OF A VOLUNTARY, GLOBAL AGREEMENT FROM 2020 THAT
ALL FAMILIES SHOULD HAVE EITHER TWO CHILDREN OR ONLY ONE CHILD, AND COMPARES THEM WITH CURRENT
UN-PROJECTIONS, CONCLUDING THAT ONLY UNIVERSAL ONE-CHILD FAMILIES COULD SOLVE THE PROBLEM
• IT FURTHER DISCUSSES THE REMARKABLE FACT THAT A UN-PROJECTED FERTILITY DECREASE, DOWN FROM 2.4
IN 2020 TO BELOW 2.0 BY 2100, RESULTS IN A STEADILY INCREASING POPULATION: 11.2 BILLION BY 2100
• THIS IS BECAUSE DECREASING FERTILITY IS COUNTERBALANCED BY A HIGHER POPULATION BASE OVER TIME.
THOUGH A HYPOTHETICAL DECREASE TO TWO-CHILD FAMILIES WOULD STOP THE GLOBAL POPULATION
FROM RISING ABOVE 10 BILLION, IT WOULD TAKE UNTIL 2480 TO RETURN TO 2020-LEVEL POPULATION
FIRST CONCLUSION
• SUSTAINABILITY IS POSSIBLE AND ACHIEVABLE, BUT REQUIRES SUSTAINABLE HUMANITY
• TO ACHIEVE THAT, WE MUST: (1) STOP POPULATION GROWTH, (2) STABILIZE POPULATION,
AND THEN (3) LOWER IT TO LONG-TERM SUSTAINABLE NUMBERS
• THIS CAN BE DONE THROUGH PROMOTION OF SMALL FAMILIES, IDEALLY ONE-CHILD ETHICS
• WHILE IT IS NOT LIKELY FOR VOLUNTARY ONE-CHILD ETHICS TO BE GLOBALLY ACCEPTED
AND EMBRACED IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE, IT SHOULD BE WIDELY CIRCULATED AMONG
BIOETHICISTS AS WELL AS ALL HEALTHCARE PROVIDERS TO EMPHASIZE THAT THIS IS
ULTIMATELY THE ONLY ETHICAL SOLUTION TO OUR OVERPOPULATION PREDICAMENT
TO BE CONTINUED…
SESSION P3.5, 20TH JULY 2022, 17:00