Mapping and modeling species distributions Department of Botany and Zoology, Masaryk University Bi9661 Selected issues in Ecology, Autumn 2013 Borja Jiménez-Alfaro, PhD Part 3: MAPPING + MODELING Applications APPLICATIONS A classification of SDM applications (adapted from Peterson et al. 2011) 1. The geography of biodiversity 2. Conservation biology 3. Species’ invasions 4. The geography of disease transmision 5. Linking niches with evolutionary processes 6. Other (creative) applications APPLICATIONS 1. The geography of biodiversity Possible questions: What is the distribution of one organism in a given area? What are the main factors influencing its distribution? Where can I find similar species? APPLICATIONS Guisan et al. 2006 Improvement of sampling design and distribution of rare species APPLICATIONS Guisan et al. 2006 APPLICATIONS APPLICATIONS Miller & Franklin 2002 Distribution models for plant communities (alliances) APPLICATIONS Miller & Franklin 2002 APPLICATIONS Miller & Franklin 2002 APPLICATIONS 2. Conservation biology Possible questions: What are the main conservation areas for a species? How rare is one species in one area? What will be the effect of climate change on species distributions? APPLICATIONS Thorn et al, 2009 They apply Maxent to assess conservation priorities APPLICATIONS Thorn et al, 2009 APPLICATIONS APPLICATIONS Jiménez-Alfaro et al. 2012 Estimation of the AOO to estimate local distribution ranges APPLICATIONS Jiménez-Alfaro et al. 2012 APPLICATIONS Jiménez-Alfaro et al. 2012 APPLICATIONS 3. Species’ invasions Possible questions: What is the niche of invasive species? What is the risk of species’ invasion in one region? How invasive species adapt to climatic changes? APPLICATIONS Broennimann et al. 2007 Comparing the niche of an invasive plant in two continents APPLICATIONS Broennimann et al. 2007 APPLICATIONS Broennimann et al. 2007 APPLICATIONS Benedict et al. 2007 Ecological risk map for the most invasive mosquito in the world Spread of the Tiger: Global Risk of Invasion by the Mosquito Aedes albopictus MARK Q. BENEDICT1, REBECCA S. LEVINE1, WILLIAM A. HAWLEY1, and L. PHILIP LOUNIBOS2 1 Centersfor DiseaseControl and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia 2 University of Florida, Florida Medical Entomology Laboratory, Vero Beach, Florida Abstract Aedesalbopictus, commonly known as the Asian tiger mosquito, is currently the most invasive mosquito in the world. It is of medical importance due to its aggressive daytime human-biting behavior and ability to vector many viruses, including dengue, LaCrosse, and West Nile. Invasions into new areas of its potential range are often initiated through the transportation of eggs via the international trade in used tires. We use a genetic algorithm, Genetic Algorithm for Rule Set Production (GARP), to determine the ecological niche of Ae. albopictus and predict a global ecological risk map for the continued spread of the species. We combine this analysis with risk due to importation of tires from infested countries and their proximity to countries that have already been invaded to develop a list of countries most at risk for future introductions and establishments. Methods used here have potential for predicting risks of future invasions of vectors or pathogens. NIH Public Access Author Manuscript Vector BorneZoonotic Dis. Author manuscript; available in PMC 2008 January 23. Published in final edited form as: Vector BorneZoonotic Dis. 2007 ; 7(1): 76–85. APPLICATIONS Benedict et al. 2007 FIG. 1. Predicted Australasian range map of Ae. albopictus. Darker shades indicate pixels for which higher numbers of models predicted potential suitable niches with the darkest shades signifying 10 models. The legend bar shows the 10 colors used. White squares represent the known occurrence points used to create the models. Yellow squares are known introduction sites outside of the native range. BENEDICT et al. Page 9 NIH-PAAuthorManuscriptNIH-PAAuthorManuscriptN APPLICATIONS Benedict et al. 2007 FIG. 3. Predicted distribution maps and actual spread of Ae. albopictus in the lower 48 states. The predicted distribution areas (red) and the documented spread (yellow) of Ae.albopictusthrough the year 2001 are shown. One of the two prediction maps for the US is shown. Differences between the two consisted largely of one of the ten models used to create the prediction map that predicted a broader Texas distribution. Counties colored green are those in which introduction has occurred but not establishment. DICT et al. Page 11 APPLICATIONS 4. The geography of desease transmision Possible questions: What is the distribution area of a desease? What are the main factors related to vectors and hosts? What areas can be potentially affected by a desease? APPLICATIONS Peterson 2009 Potential distribution of malaria vectors under climate warming APPLICATIONS Peterson 2009 Human population Anopheles gambiae Anopheles arabiensis Suitable both in present and in the future Presently suitable, not in the future Newly suitable in the future GARP APPLICATIONS Hay et al. 2013 Mapping infectious desease occurrence requires new models APPLICATIONS Hay et al. 2013 Conceptual scheme (with boosted regression trees) APPLICATIONS 5. Linking niches with evolutionary processes Possible questions: How species niches relate to phylogeography? How the ecological niche of species change along the time? Are species subjected to niche conservatism? APPLICATIONS Jakob et al. 2007 Differentiation processes: genetic vs. ecological variation APPLICATIONS Jakob et al. 2007 APPLICATIONS Jakob et al. 2007 BIOCLIM In DIVA-GIS APPLICATIONS Martínez-Meyer & Peterson 2006 Testing niche conservatism in eight species with pollen records APPLICATIONS Martínez-Meyer & Peterson 2006 APPLICATIONS Martínez-Meyer & Peterson 2006 APPLICATIONS 6. Creative applications Two examples: APPLICATIONS How Quaternary megafauna responded to climate and humans? APPLICATIONS APPLICATIONS Can we predict the distribution of bigfoot in North America? APPLICATIONS ¨Occurrence¨ data APPLICATIONS