4.3 Global Climale Change and the Kyoto Protocol Since the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janiero, the international community has been seeking a way to strike a balance between increasing the pace of economic development without further threatening the global environment. The biggest potential threat to the global environment is the impact that increased energy use will have on global climate. At the Rio Earth Summit, 167 nations ratified the Framework Convention on Climate Change with the aim of solving the problem of how to reduce the amount of greenhouse gases—gases that are leading to the warming of the Earth's atmosphere—that are generated by energy use (Figure 4.E). An equally critical aim is to ensure that the burden of protecting the environment is shared equitably across all nations. In December 1997 these nations began to address the problem of balancing global economic development and environmental protection more substantively by forging the Kyoto Protocol. The protocol marks the first time that an attempt was made to I amount of greenhouse gas emissions generated by core countries. The aim of the protocol is to cut the com bined emissions of greenhouse gases from core coun tries by roughly 5 percent from their 1990 levels b' 2012. (Core countries account for a disproportionat-, amount of CO2 emissions, as Figure 4.F makes clear. It also specifies the amount each core nation must contribute toward meeting that reduction goal. Nation-with the highest CO2 emissions—the United States. Japan, and most European nations—are expected u reduce emissions by a range of 6 to 8 percent. Although the Kyoto Protocol represents a real ad vance on the 1992 agreement reached in Rio, theri are still important issues that have yet to be completel;. worked out among the 167 nations involved in th. protocol. One of the most controversial is whethc-core countries will be allowed to participate in "emis nade to limit the xide United States Canada Russian Federation Germany United Kingdom Japan Poland Ukraine Republic of Korea South Africa Italy France Mexico China India Core Countries hydrocarbons I------CFC-12 i 6% ■ 1 ~ Nitrous c ' 6% C 5 10 15 20 25 Per capita carbon dioxide emissions (metric tons) Figure 4.E Greenhouse gases The most central pollutant involved in global climate change is CO,, carbon dioxide. In addition to CO_>, the Kyoto Protocol focuses on five other greenhouse gases: methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N20), chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), and a number of hydrofluoro-carbons (HFCs). Figure 4.F Per capita CO; emissions CO, emissions are .1 good proxy for all greenhouse gases. The graph shows core countries as a whole, plus several core countries with especially high per capita levels of COj emissions as well as a feu rapidly developing semiperipheral countries. India and China, with very high populations, have relatively low pe^ capita CO; emissions, while Ihe United States and Canada with populations far lower than India or China, have a massive contribution to CO.. emissions. This difference is not sur prising given that energy use is highly correlated with leve' of wealth. -ums trading." In this scenario, a nation whose emissions fall below its treaty limit will be allowed to sell -redir for its remaining emissions allotment to another nation, which in turn can use the credit to meet its iwn treaty obligations. Those who advocate the emissions trading approach to pollution control believe .ich a program will help curb the cost of controlling jreenhouse gases by allowing emissions cuts to occur here they are least expensive. A second important, and as yet unresolved, issue • the extent to which peripheral nations will be in- ilved in limiting global emissions. While the origi- il 1992 climate treaty placed the burden of reducing - i ibal climate change on core countries, which are un- nestionably most responsible for the current buildup ■ greenhouse gases, peripheral countries arc also ex-:cted to play a role. The Kyoto Protocol, however, ies not set any binding limits on peripheral country missions, nor does it establish a mechanism or netable for these countries to take on such limits luntarily. One interesting way of encouraging envi-nmentally sensitive development in peripheral coun- ■ cs is the so-called Clean Development Mechanism. us would allow core countries to invest in projects peripheral countries that reduce greenhouse gas issions and in return receive credit for the reduc->ns. The aim is to help peripheral countries develop eir economies without increasing the overall contrition to greenhouse gas emissions. Although it is unlikely that the Kyoto accord will :ig about deep emissions cuts, climate negotiators 'uld like to see a new treaty developed that will able progress to continue well into the twenty-first tury. The hope is to stimulate energy policy re-rm at the same time as new research and develop-u investments bring low-emission technologies to rket. It is also possible that the Kyoto Protocol.it-■ could be expanded to include more comprehen-. emission cuts designed eventually to stabilize í nhouse gas concentrations at a safe level. Figure *.G shows the projected levels of CO> emissions, ch are considered a reliable proxy for all green-ise gases, under various scenarios. Unlortunate-ifter nine years of international negotiations, in j-2001 President George Bush announced that the ted States would no longer honor its commitment Figure 4.G Impact of proposed reductions in future emissions To stabilize COj emissions, very deep cuts will be necessary tor core countries at the same time that peripheral countries must be allowed to pursue economic development. One important way to make this possible is through the development of low-emission technologies. to the 1997 Kyoto agreement because he feared the ramifications of the Protocol wotdd negatively affect U.S. energy companies and diminish economic-growth in the United States and the rest of the globalizing world. The implications of this decision are that the United States will continue to be the world's largest single generator (over 25 percent) of greenhouse gases—emissions that are leading to worldwide rises in temperature. Such temperature increases—known as global warming—have more potential to damage F.arth's web of lite than any other factor outside of nuclear war or a collision with an asteroid. In addition to causing rising sea levels throughout the world (which could result in widespread loss of property and livelihoods), global warming is also likely to contribute to increases in heat-related deaths (especially respiratory illnesses) and a widening of the range of disease-carrying rodents and bugs (which would cause increases in malaria, dengue fever, and Lyme disease, among other afflictions). Adapted from World Resources Institute, "Negotiating Climate: Kyoto Protocol Marks a Step Forward," 1999. Web site: http://www.igc. org/trcnds/kyoto.html