Rue Mauverney 28 1196 Gland Switzerland Tel: +41 22 999 0000 Fax: +41 22 999 0002 mail@iucn.org www.iucn.org World Headquarters African Elephant Status Report 2007 An update from the African Elephant Database J.J. Blanc, R.F.W. Barnes, G.C. Craig, H.T. Dublin, C.R. Thouless, I. Douglas-Hamilton and J.A. Hart AfricanElephantStatusReport2007 Occasional Paper of the IUCN Species Survival Commission No. 33 African Elephant Specialist Group African Elephant Status Report 2007 An update from the African Elephant Database African Elephant Specialist Group J.J. Blanc, R.F.W. Barnes, G.C. Craig, H.T. Dublin, C.R. Thouless, I. Douglas-Hamilton and J.A. Hart Occasional Paper of the IUCN Species Survival Commission No. 33 African Elephant Status Report 2007 An update from the African Elephant Database The designation of geographical entities in this book, and the presentation of the material, do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of IUCN concerning the legal status of any country, territory, or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the Published by: IUCN, Gland, Switzerland. Copyright: © 2007 International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources. Reproduction of this publication for educational or other non-commercial purposes is authorised without prior written permission from the copyright holder provided the source is fully acknowledged. Reproduction of this publication for resale or other commercial purposes is prohibited without prior written permission of the copyright holder. Citation: Blanc, J.J., Barnes, R.F.W., Craig, G. C., Dublin, H.T., Thouless, C.R., Douglas-Hamilton, I. and Hart, J.A. (2007). Switzerland. vi + 276 pp. ISBN: 978-2-8317-0970-3 Cover caption: The quality and availability of information on the status of elephants in Africa vary considerably across the continent. As with the elephant pictured on the cover, some areas are rich in detailed information, while in many others we are still in the dark. This edition of the African Elephant Status Report incorporates a new Information Quality Index to better highlight the extent of this variation in the quality and availability of elephant population data. Copy-edited by: Lynne Mansure. Layout by: Julian Blanc. Available from: IUCN Rue Mauverney 29 1196 Gland, Switzerland www.iucn.org/publications A catalogue of IUCN publications is also available v C O N T E N T S ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS VI INTRODUCTION 1 THE AFRICAN ELEPHANT DATABASE 3 DATA TYPES AND CATEGORIZATION 6 HOW THIS REPORT IS ORGANIZED 17 AFRICA 21 CONTINENTAL OVERVIEW 21 CENTRAL AFRICA 26 REGIONAL OVERVIEW 26 CAMEROON 31 CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC 36 CHAD 41 CONGO 46 DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO 51 EQUATORIAL GUINEA 57 GABON 62 EASTERN AFRICA 67 REGIONAL OVERVIEW 67 ERITREA 72 ETHIOPIA 76 KENYA 81 RWANDA 86 SOMALIA 90 SUDAN 94 TANZANIA 99 UGANDA 106 SOUTHERN AFRICA 111 REGIONAL OVERVIEW 111 ANGOLA 117 BOTSWANA 122 MALAWI 127 MOZAMBIQUE 132 NAMIBIA 137 SOUTH AFRICA 143 SWAZILAND 148 ZAMBIA 152 ZIMBABWE 157 WEST AFRICA 162 REGIONAL OVERVIEW 162 BENIN 167 BURKINA FASO 172 CÔTE D’IVOIRE 177 GHANA 182 GUINEA 187 GUINEA BISSAU 192 LIBERIA 196 MALI 200 NIGER 204 NIGERIA 209 SENEGAL 214 SIERRA LEONE 218 TOGO 222 REFERENCES 226 APPENDIX I 257 INFORMATION QUALITY INDEX AND PRIORITIES FOR FUTURE SURVEYS 257 APPENDIX II 258 COMPARABLE ESTIMATES FROM EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AFRICA 258 APPENDIX III 262 ALPHABETICAL LIST OF PROTECTED AREAS IN ELEPHANT RANGE 262 APPENDIX IV 273 ACRONYMS & ABBREVIATIONS 273 vi A C K N O W L E D G E M E N T S The preparation of this report would not have been possible without the voluntary contributions of a large number of people, both AfESG members and non-members, who provided information and data through reports, maps, questionnaire replies and personal communications. We would like to extend our sincere thanks to the following people: Jeremy Anderson, George Angelides, Peter Bechtel, Roy Bhima, Elphas Bitok, Steve Blake, Philippe Bouché, David Brugière, Susan Canney, Michael Chase, Emmanuel Danquah, Pauwel de Wachter, Yirmed Demeke, David Edderai, Lori Eggert, Atanga Ekobo, David Erickson, Mike Fay, Charles and Lara Foley, Jean-Marc Foment, Howard Frederick, Michelle Gadd, Marion Garaï, Debbie Gibson, Maryke Gray, Melissa Groo, Elie Hakizumwami, Joe Heffernan, Pavla Hejcmanová, Emmanuel Hema, Kes Hillman Smith, Richard Hoare, Bernd Hoppe-Dominik, Nigel Hunter, Tim Jackson, Christine Jost, José Kalpers, Michael Keigwin, Abel Khumalo, Willy Knocker, Holger Kolberg, Sally Lahm, Richard Lamprey, Kelly Landen, Josephine Langley, Stephanie Latour, Claire Lewis, Dale Lewis, Pauline Lindeque, Keith Lindsay, Sebastien Luhunu, Fiona Maisels, Dolmia Malachie, Issa Abdou Malam, Honori Maliti, Jimmiel Mandima, Michel Mantheakis, Malik Marjan, Rowan Martin, Geoffroy Mauvais, Bakari Mbano, Alastair McNeilage, Simon Mduma, Emmanuel Mve Mebia, Ludovic Momont, Robert Morley, Cynthia Moss, David Moyer, Leonard Mubalama, Louisa Mupetami, Ken Mwathe, Awo Nandjui, Anthony Nchifu, Leo Niskanen, Edison Nuwamanya, Zacharie Nzooh, Luke Ojok, Patrick Omondi, Andy Plumptre, Michal Polanski, Joyce Poole, Henrik Rasmussen, Mickey Reilly, Janna Rist, Aggrey Rwetsiba, Moses Sam, Richard Sambolah, Tony Sánchez Ariño, Lamine Sebogo, Riziki Shemdoe, Hezy Shoshani, Hopeson Simwanza, Brice Sinsin, PJ Stephenson, Jamison Suter, Cyril Taolo, Russell Taylor, Andrea Turkalo, Elsabé Van der Westhuizen, Hilde Vanleeuwe, Fred Wanyama and Ian Whyte. We are especially grateful to Debbie Gibson and Fiona Maisels for reviewing parts of the manuscript and for providing valuable comments and suggestions. We did not always follow their advice, and any errors that remain are entirely our own. We are also deeply indebted to Mary Rigby for her tireless ‘labour of love’ in maintaining the African Elephant Library, to Lynne Mansure for her keen editorial eye and to Gene Eckhart for the cover photograph. This report was produced with financial assistance from the United Kingdom Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, the Forestry Bureau of Taiwan’s Council for Agriculture, The United States Fish and Wildlife Service and the European Commission. Our sincere gratitude goes to them for their support. African Elephant Status Report 2007 INTRODUCTION | 1 I N T R O D U C T I O N This is the fourth African Elephant Status Report (AESR) produced under the aegis of the African Elephant Specialist Group (AfESG) of the IUCN Species Survival Commission (SSC). Like its predecessors, the AESR 2007 is based on data from the African Elephant Database (AED), the most comprehensive database on the conservation status of any single species of mammal in the wild. The AESR 2007 aims to provide the most authoritative, comprehensive and up-to-date source of knowledge on the distribution and abundance of the African elephant at the national, regional and continental levels. One continuing challenge for the AESR is to interpret apparent trends in elephant numbers, particularly at the continental level. This is a tall order, as large gaps remain in our knowledge of elephant distribution and abundance across their range. Furthermore, guesswork still accounts for a large proportion of the elephant numbers reported in the AED, and an unknown number of elephants remain unaccounted for in the database. Clearly, comparing guesses to derive population trends is a meaningless exercise. Yet such comparisons of elephant numbers continue to be done by many on a regular basis, despite the AED’s existing data categorization systems and repeated warnings in each edition of the AESR. To help ensure that only valid comparisons will be made in the future, several new features have been developed and implemented in this report. The first of these features is a system for tracking changes in elephant numbers between this and the previous report, at the national, regional and continental levels. Each section now includes a table showing changes in elephant numbers grouped by the attributed causes of any reported change. In effect, the system separates those apparent changes where valid comparisons can be made (REPEAT SURVEYS) from the rest (e.g. new guesses, different survey techniques, etc.). Where methodologically comparable data account for a large proportion of elephant numbers at the regional level, a statistical analysis of changes since the previous report, as described by Blanc et al. (2005), is also presented. In order to ensure the correct interpretation of elephant status, it is important to give readers an intuitive feel for the limited quality of elephant data available. To this end, a new Information Quality Index (IQI), calculated from data contained in the AED, has been developed. The IQI assigns a score from zero to one for every country, region and the entire continent, and it should enable readers to understand and compare how data quality varies from one place to another. Based on the IQI, a system to identify those areas for which population surveys are most needed has also been devised. The Priority for Future Surveys gives a score of one (highest priority) to five (lowest) to every site, country and region, reflecting the quality of data and the need to conduct systematic population surveys. This system is intended to assist managers and donors in prioritizing their elephant population monitoring efforts, an important exercise in view of limited resources for survey work. Readers will notice that the convention previously used for titling the AESR has been changed for this report. In the past, the title African Elephant Status Report (or African Elephant Database in editions prior to the AESR 2002) was followed by the year to which the most recent information in the report referred. For instance, the African Elephant Status Report 2002 (Blanc et al., 2003) contained data up to the end of 2002, even though the report itself was published in 2003. This led to considerable confusion and incorrect 2 | INTRODUCTION African Elephant Status Report 2007 citations in the published literature. The AESR 2007 and future editions will be titled using the year in which the report is published. Thus, the African Elephant Status Report 2007 (this report) contains data gathered up to the end of 2006. We hope that this new convention will provide greater clarity to readers. The new convention may give the impression that five years have passed between the publication of the AESR 2002 and the AESR 2007, whereas, in fact, it has only been three. Nevertheless, financial constraints continue to make it increasingly difficult to produce the AESR at three or four year intervals. Resources permitting, we anticipate that in future the AESR will be published every five years. The AED and its status reports have come a long way in the 15 years that they have been under the responsibility of the AfESG. The production of the AESR has faced many conceptual and technical challenges in that period, and the AfESG is keen to share the lessons it has learned. We would like to see similar monitoring systems adopted for other charismatic/iconic species. The AfESG believes that expanding the AED to include other such species, thereby creating a multi-species database, would result in an even more valuable resource, with better prospects of long-term financial sustainability. We would welcome interest from those wishing to take this concept further. African Elephant Status Report 2007 INTRODUCTION | THE AFRICAN ELEPHANT DATABASE 3 T H E A F R I C A N E L E P H A N T D A T A B A S E The African Elephant Database is a spatial database used to store, manage, analyze and disseminate information on the distribution and abundance of elephant populations on the African continent. In order to provide a current and accurate picture of the status of African elephants, the database is regularly updated, and African Elephant Status Reports are produced and published periodically. Why Count Elephants? Information on elephant range and numbers is vital for the effective conservation and management of Africa's elephants. The elephant is a "keystone" species that plays a pivotal role in structuring both plant and animal communities (Dublin, 1995; Owen-Smith, 1988; Shoshani, 1993) and often dominates mammal biomass in the habitats it occupies (White, 1994). While the effect of the African elephant on its habitat is often beneficial (Cochrane, 2003; Magliocca et al., 2003; Nchanji & Plumptre, 2003; Or & Ward, 2003; Ruggiero & Fay, 1994), it can have a detrimental impact on vegetation where high densities build up in confined areas (Craig, 1995; Jachmann & Croes, 1989; Swanepoel, 1993; Tchamba & Mahamat, 1992; Western & Maitumo, 2004). The potential impact of elephants on their habitats raises important management issues for protected areas. It is pertinent to ask, for instance, how large a protected area needs to be to support a viable elephant population without negatively affecting biological diversity (Armbruster & Lande, 1993). Conversely, and in order to prioritize efforts in elephant conservation, it is necessary to define minimum viable populations within isolated protected areas (Sukumar, 1993). Elephant distribution, however, is not confined to protected areas. Indeed, the majority of elephant range may still be found in unprotected land. This poses additional challenges for wildlife authorities and wildlife managers (Kangwana, 1995). Levels of human-elephant conflict, for instance, are high in many parts of the continent, and especially where human and agricultural expansion moves into new areas (Hoare, 2000). In order to meet these challenges, it is essential that management objectives be clearly defined for both protected and unprotected areas of elephant range (Lindeque, 1995; Lindsay, 1993). Information on elephant distribution and abundance must be available in order to set such goals, as well as to monitor the effectiveness of management actions. In summary, wildlife management authorities need to know the status of their elephant populations, whether they are increasing or decreasing and whether their numbers should be regulated to reduce conflict and to relax the pressure on habitats. The Need for a Continental Approach The status of the African elephant varies considerably across its range, and the long-term survival of national populations is more threatened in some countries than in others. While the desire to conserve elephants is widespread, opinion differs as to how this goal can best be achieved. It is difficult, however, to make objective decisions about elephant management and conservation within and beyond protected areas without the sort of overview that a synthesis of continent-wide information can provide. Continent-wide information is required because elephants move long distances across protected area boundaries and international borders, and a policy or management decision made in one country can affect elephant populations elsewhere. Changing land-use patterns or different approaches to tourism, such as trophy hunting in border areas, may have impacts beyond sovereign boundaries. Likewise, policies concerned with ivory management and trade, in particular, can transcend political boundaries. Many argue, 4 THE AFRICAN ELEPHANT DATABASE | INTRODUCTION African Elephant Status Report 2007 for instance, that trading by one country could affect poaching or smuggling in another, and that any management action which, directly or indirectly, leads to fluctuations in the price of ivory, could ultimately affect the future of the continent's elephant population (e.g. Bulte et al., 2003; Douglas-Hamilton, 2000). Regardless of whether this view is correct (Kantai, 2000; Stiles, 2004), monitoring at the continental level is necessary. Civil instability and wars often lead to the mass migration of refugees into previously uninhabited areas of elephant range. Several important Range States are emerging from armed conflict, and have little or no capacity to monitor their elephant populations. These factors all make it difficult to partition elephant management into clear political units. While regional initiatives, such as the Southern African Elephant Survey and Monitoring Programme (ELESMAP), which involved most Southern African Range States in the 1990s (Craig, 1996a), are necessary to census and manage shared, cross-border populations, a continental perspective is also of utmost importance for identifying conservation priorities at the regional and continental levels. History of the AED The AED was initiated by Iain Douglas-Hamilton in 1986. The objective of the project was to develop a comprehensive picture of elephant numbers and distribution throughout Africa. Using data ranging from systematic survey results to guesses collected in questionnaires and interviews, a database of elephant population estimates and distribution was assembled (Burrill & Douglas-Hamilton, 1987) using a Geographical Information System (GIS). Initially housed at the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) headquarters in Nairobi, Kenya, the AED was from its inception until April 1998 a collaborative effort of the Global Environment Monitoring System (GEMS), the Global Resource Information Database (GRID) of UNEP and the IUCN/SSC AfESG. Towards the end of 1992, the AED became the direct responsibility of the AfESG, which had by then become a separate group from the African Rhino Specialist Group (AfRSG). In April 1998 the AED was moved from UNEP to its present location in the AfESG offices in Nairobi. Since 1992, the structure and management of the AED is overseen by a group of technical experts known as the Data Review Working Group (DRWG). The DRWG meets periodically to review and discuss technical aspects of the AED. The DRWG oversees the selection and categorization of data to be included in the AED, agrees on new features and analyses to be implemented in the AED and reviews the technical content of the AESR. Decisions made by the DRWG are implemented by a full-time database manager. Prior to the present report, three reports of the AED were published under this framework, namely, the African Elephant Database 1995 (Said et al., 1995), the African Elephant Database 1998 (Barnes et al., 1999) and the African Elephant Status Report 2002 (Blanc et al., 2003). These reports are freely available for download, in PDF format, from the AfESG website (http://iucn.org/afesg). It is a testimony to the success of these reports that, in the three years since it was first posted on the website, the AESR 2002 has been downloaded no fewer than 150,000 times. At a meeting held in Nairobi in September 2002 under the auspices of the programme for Monitoring the Illegal Killing of Elephants (MIKE) of the Convention on the International Trade in Endangered Species of Fauna and Flora (CITES), African elephant Range States unanimously adopted the AED as the official repository of African elephant population data generated by the MIKE Programme (MIKE, 2002a,b). African Elephant Status Report 2007 INTRODUCTION | THE AFRICAN ELEPHANT DATABASE 5 Database Management The AED contains both spatial and non-spatial (attribute) data, managed using GIS software and a relational database management system (RDBMS). Spatial data layers are currently maintained in ArcGIS 9.1 Geodatabase format within a Microsoft Jet (Access) database, and are stored as polygons or points depending on the geographic feature type. These data sets are combined with base map data derived from the Digital Chart of the World (ESRI, 1992), a widely available global geographical data set. Survey reports are obtained from wildlife management agencies and other organizations, and questionnaires and maps are distributed to AfESG members and other individuals with possible access to reliable information on elephant distribution and abundance. Data are received in a variety of formats, including paper maps, reports, personal communications and geo-referenced digital data. Information from paper maps is digitized and geo-referenced, while attribute data from reports, communications and questionnaire replies are entered through the keyboard. New data are conflated with existing data and boundaries are adjusted to rivers, lakes, and political boundaries of the base map. Spatial polygon data are maintained in geographic (unprojected) coordinates in degrees of latitude and longitude. When it is necessary to calculate areas, the data set is projected “on the fly” into the Lambert Azimuthal Equal-Area projection which, when applied to the African continent, results in minimal distortion to shape, distance and direction while retaining true area information. The surface areas of input zones, protected areas and elephant range as calculated by the GIS are aggregated at national, regional and continental levels to determine their total surface area. In addition, the overlay capabilities of GIS are used to determine percentages of both protected and surveyed elephant range. 6 DATA TYPES AND CATEGORIZATION | INTRODUCTION African Elephant Status Report 2007 D A T A T Y P E S A N D C A T E G O R I Z A T I O N Elephant Taxonomy A number of genetic studies published in recent years have suggested that the previously recognized subspecies of African elephant, namely the savanna elephant Loxodonta africana africana and the forest elephant Loxodonta africana cyclotis, may, in fact, constitute two separate species, namely Loxodonta africana (Blumenbach 1797) and Loxodonta cyclotis (Matschie 1900) respectively (Comstock et al., 2002; Roca & O'Brien, 2005; Roca et al., 2001, 2005). Although many have been quick to adopt the specific distinction between forest and savanna elephants, the above studies have been criticized on the grounds that their sampling was insufficiently extensive. There is still no consensus in the scientific community as to the number of species of elephant currently extant in Africa (Debruyne, 2005; Debruyne et al., 2003). In addition, the existence of a third species, a West African elephant inhabiting both forests and savannas in that region, has also been postulated (Eggert et al., 2002). In 2003, after carefully reviewing the evidence available, the AfESG agreed that, in view of the lack of consensus among experts in elephant genomics, the premature allocation of African elephants into separate specific taxa would leave hybrids in an uncertain taxonomic and conservation status, and that more research is needed before such an allocation can be made (AfESG2003b). In conformity with this view, the AED and its outputs continue to treat African elephants as a single species. The AED stores data on two basic variables reflecting the conservation status of African elephants, namely, distribution and abundance. The collection of data on these variables presents a number of challenges related to the availability and quality of information. These challenges, and the ways in which the AED has been designed to handle them to assist in proper interpretation of data, are described in detail in the subsections that follow. Elephant Distribution (Range) African elephants occur in a wide variety of habitats, from tropical swamp forests to deserts. Elephants often move extensively in search of food, water and minerals or in response to disturbance, and the extent to which they move may depend on a large number of factors. In certain areas, seasonal movements are predictable, while in others, movement patterns are far more difficult to decipher. These factors, together with the scarcity of animals at the edges of range, make elephant range a complex concept to define and pin down. For these reasons, elephant range is broadly defined by the AfESG as the entire area where the species occurs in the wild at any time. Collecting precise distribution information on such a wide-ranging species as the African elephant presents a number of practical problems, often related to the remoteness and challenges posed by some of the habitats in which elephants are found. As a result, the quality of information varies considerably from one area to another. The range map for a particular country is often updated by a single individual answering a questionnaire, and thus subjective elements inevitably affect the collection of range information. Trying to draw a precise range boundary on maps of varying quality and scale is often an arbitrary exercise. Neat, rounded lines may be indicative of scanty knowledge in comparison to the fragmented, more detailed pictures which emerge from countries where more precise information is available. Elephant range often fits precisely the boundaries of protected areas, because that is where most population surveys are carried out, and elephant movements in and out of protected areas are often ignored. Frequently, the depiction of range is also delimited by a natural boundary such as a river or a mountain range for convenience rather than accuracy. When range information in one country extends to a national border, it does not always match the range in the neighbouring country. While this is sometimes due to African Elephant Status Report 2007 INTRODUCTION | DATA TYPES AND CATEGORIZATION 7 steep gradients in human population density across the border, more often lack of reliable information is the cause of the hard boundaries. In order to address some of these difficulties, the AED classifies elephant range information into four categories of certainty, as described in Table 1. In addition, range information in the AED is fully documented and referenced to original sources of data. This allows some evaluation of the reliability of range information, based on how and when each record was obtained. Many areas of POSSIBLE range shown in previous editions of the AESR had not been updated in many years, and were therefore unreliable. It continues to be difficult to obtain updated information for many parts of elephant range, and yet many factors may have changed in such areas since the data were first collected. Human population density and habitat loss, for instance, are known to be major factors affecting elephant distribution. Hoare and du Toit (1999) found that people and elephants can coexist up to a threshold of human population density of 15.2 persons per km², beyond which elephants are absent. As human populations have continued to increase throughout much of the continent, an attempt has been made to update and improve the reliability of range data in this report. To this end, human population data was obtained from the Landscan 2002 human population density data set (ORNL/GIST, 2002). This data set models the spatial distribution of human population density by incorporating data from census counts and spatially distributing them based on a number of other factors, such as distance from roads and night lights as seen from space. For this report, Landscan 2002 data were overlaid with elephant range data from the AED, and areas of POSSIBLE elephant range where human population density is estimated to exceed 15 persons per km² were categorized as DOUBTFUL range. As mentioned in Table 1, it is important to conduct studies in these areas to establish the absence or presence of elephants. Elephant Abundance Although a wide variety of methods are available to arrive at estimates of elephant numbers in an area, no single method is perfect. Possible sources of bias include the choice of survey technique, surveyor skill, Table 1. Categorization of elephant range data in the AED Range Category Definition KNOWN Areas in suitable habitat which, if searched with reasonable intensity, are likely to yield signs of elephant presence. If no information is obtained confirming the presence of elephants for a 10 year period, KNOWN range is downgraded to POSSIBLE range (below). POSSIBLE Areas within historical range and in suitable habitat where there are no negative data to rule out the presence of elephants, including former areas of KNOWN range where the source information is more than 10 years old. Areas of POSSIBLE range are considered to be a priority for studies to establish the presence or absence of elephants. DOUBTFUL Areas where there are reasons to believe that elephants are no longer present, but which have not been formally surveyed. If further corroborative evidence is obtained, areas of DOUBTFUL range are reclassified as NON-RANGE. As with POSSIBLE range, areas of DOUBTFUL range are a priority for absence/presence studies. NON-RANGE Areas which are known to hold no elephants – be it due to habitat modification, local extinction or any other reason. POINT RECORDS Sightings of elephants or evidence of their presence outside of KNOWN elephant range, shown as crosses on the maps. 8 DATA TYPES AND CATEGORIZATION | INTRODUCTION African Elephant Status Report 2007 quality and availability of adequate equipment, financial constraints, climatic conditions and vegetative cover. Ideally, data on elephants in any country should be collected by a wildlife management authority using qualified staff and standardized methods for collecting, recording and analysing data (e.g. Craig, 2004; Hedges & Lawson, 2006). In reality, elephant data are often collected by a multiplicity of agencies and individuals, often without any direct linkage to one another and using a variety of different techniques based on current opinion and available resources. The result is a collection of data of variable quality in most countries, and no data at all on many populations. Very few countries have the means, either financial or in the form of expertise, to conduct systematic surveys on a regular basis. Furthermore, political strife plagues many Range States and precludes monitoring work. Elephants are often found in unprotected landscapes, where few surveys are undertaken. In some countries, elephants inhabit different types of habitat and it is necessary to combine data from different types of surveys to calculate a national estimate. Seasonal and cross-border movements of elephants are additional factors that can lead to inaccurate national estimates. To date, there have been few cross-border surveys to estimate the size of such populations. Instead, they are treated as separate populations on either side of the border, which may occasionally result in either under- or over-counting. There is no ideal method for counting elephants. Each method has its advantages and disadvantages and is applicable in a different situation. The brief description of some of the most important methods below is not intended to be detailed or comprehensive. For more details, the reader is referred to the specialized texts available on the subject (e.g. Barnes, 1993; Craig, 1993; Craig, 2004; Douglas-Hamilton, 1996; Hedges & Lawson, 2006; Kangwana, 1996; Norton-Griffiths, 1978). Methods of Estimating Elephant Numbers Methods for estimating elephant numbers fall into three broad categories: total counts, sample counts and guesses. Total counts aim to see and record all the elephants in a defined area, either from the air or from the ground. Aerial total counts are conducted from fixed-wing aircraft or helicopters, and are only suitable for open habitats, where elephants are unlikely to be hidden by forest or thick bush. The speed at which the aircraft is flown also influences the accuracy of the count, with high speeds usually leading to undercounts (Norton-Griffiths, 1978). Aerial total counts are commonly used in savanna habitats, especially in Eastern and Southern Africa. Total counts of a limited area can also be conducted at ground level by teams in vehicles or on foot. These are uncommon in Africa, but are sometimes carried out in India, where observers ride on domesticated elephants. In a handful of places, total ground counts have been accomplished by identifying every individual in the population. This is only possible for intensively studied, closed populations where animals can be observed readily. For such individual recognition studies to provide high quality data for the AED, every individual in the population must be registered. Many ongoing studies have so far only covered a fraction of the populations being studied, and cannot therefore provide reliable estimates of entire populations. Sample counts, in which only part of the area is counted (usually between 3% and 20%), are generally conducted along transects which may be randomly distributed or systematically placed across the study African Elephant Status Report 2007 INTRODUCTION | DATA TYPES AND CATEGORIZATION 9 area. The resulting data are used to calculate a population estimate with confidence limits. In contrast with total counts, which tend to produce underestimates of the true population, sample counts have in principle an equal chance of underestimating or overestimating the true population, provided that sampling error is the main source of error. In practice, however, factors such as high aircraft speed or dense vegetation cover will lead to undercounts. Sample counts can be further subdivided into direct sample counts and indirect sample counts. Direct sample counts are most commonly made from the air, but may also be conducted on the ground, either on foot or from vehicles. Aerial sample counts require considerable technical expertise and coordination, as well as the use of expensive equipment such as radar altimeters. Aerial sample counts are the most commonly employed survey technique in Eastern and Southern Africa. Indirect sample counts are usually the only way in which to obtain objective estimates of elephant populations in forests, where it is difficult to see any animals. Elephant dung is counted along transects using line transect sampling techniques, and results are combined with estimates of elephant defecation rate and dung decay rate, to provide a population estimate with confidence limits. Dung decay rates vary considerably across sites, and an estimate of decay rate obtained from the study area is crucially important to arrive at an accurate estimate of elephant numbers (Laing et al., 2003). If properly conducted, dungcounting techniques can provide estimates that are at least as accurate as those from direct methods, and more precise than those of aerial sample counts (Barnes, 2001, 2002). A new indirect sample counting technique was recently applied to the estimation of elephant population size in forests (Eggert et al., 2003). The technique relies on the extraction of genetic material (DNA) from as many dung-piles as possible within a given area, and the use of a DNA fingerprinting protocols to identify the number of unique genotypes (individuals) in the samples collected. The rates of repeat samples obtained can then be used to estimate the population size for the area using the equivalent of a markrecapture census technique (Eggert et al., 2003). This technique is likely to find wide application in sites where other methods are unlikely to give reliable results, for example, areas of mixed habitat and areas with low densities of elephants where other methods would give wide confidence limits. Guesses are often the only kind of estimate obtainable for many areas. Organizing an elephant survey, whether a total or sample count, from the air or on the ground, requires a considerable investment in manpower, equipment, time and money, and this is often not feasible. It is then that guesses made by people who know the area in question have to be relied upon. If informants provide sufficient data to permit an evaluation of the accuracy of their estimate, such as a survey estimate with little or no details of methodology, then the estimate is considered an INFORMED GUESS. If no such information accompanies the estimate, or if an estimate is more than 10 years old, then it is considered an ‘OTHER GUESS’. Every survey method has its own sources of error and bias, and the choice of method is often not a matter of selecting the best, but of avoiding the worst (Norton-Griffiths, 1978). In addition, pooling individual estimates to arrive at national, regional and continental estimates, presents problems of its own. It is inappropriate, for instance, to obtain a combined estimate for two areas by adding up the results of a sample count in one area to those of a guess for another. Even if similar methodologies were employed in the two areas, adding up the results would be of questionable value if the surveys were conducted at two very distant points in time. For these reasons, it is essential to categorize the information available and to present it in a manner that truly reflects the different degrees of inherent reliability. 10 DATA TYPES AND CATEGORIZATION | INTRODUCTION African Elephant Status Report 2007 Elephant population data in the AED are categorized according to data quality and survey reliability, as described below. Survey data quality Data quality is based on survey parameters that may affect the accuracy and precision of the estimate. It gives an indication of the thoroughness with which a survey is conducted, and thus gives a basis with which to compare the quality of surveys of a given area that employ the same methodology. A score of 1 to 3 (best to worst) is given to each survey estimate, as described below. Ground survey data GROUND TOTAL COUNTS (GT), including INDIVIDUAL REGISTRATION (IR) studies, are given a data quality score of 1. It is worth noting, however, that the categorization of IR studies is currently under review, as many such studies do not always cover entire populations, and hence do not necessarily merit a high quality rating. GROUND SAMPLE COUNTS (GS) are rated according to sampling intensity, or sample fraction, which is defined as the proportion of the input zone covered in the survey. The following quality scores are based on percentage sampling intensity of a given area: 1. Greater than 20% 2. 5% to 20% 3. Less than 5% or not reported Aerial survey data AERIAL TOTAL COUNTS (AT) are categorized in terms of search rate, or the area covered per hour, as follows: 1. Less than 100 km²/hr 2. 100 - 200 km²/hr 3. More than 200 km²/hr or not reported AERIAL SAMPLE COUNTS (AS) are categorized using sampling intensity. In stratified aerial sample counts, effective sample intensity, defined as the proportion of animals actually seen to the population estimate, is used instead. In both cases, the following quality categories are based on percentage sampling intensity: 1. Greater than 20% 2. 5% to 20% 3. Less than 5% or not reported Dung counts (DC) 1.Percentage Relative Precision (PRP)1 for mean elephant density less than 30% and one of the following: a. Dung decay rate measured on site for 50 dung-piles or more b. Defecation rate measured on site c. PRP for dung density estimate ≤ 20% d. Sampling done in both dry and wet seasons OR any three of the above four conditions in (a)-(d). 2. PRP for elephant density of 50% or less OR any two of the following three conditions: a. Decay rate measured on site for 30 dung-piles or more b. Defecation rate measured on site 1. PRP is the 95% confidence limit expressed as a percentage of the estimate. Thus an estimate of 30 with confidence limits of ±15 has a PRP of 50% African Elephant Status Report 2007 INTRODUCTION | DATA TYPES AND CATEGORIZATION 11 c. PRP for dung density ≤ 30% 3. When the conditions for (1) and (2) are not met. Genetic dung counts (GD) Effective sampling intensity, defined as the number of unique genotypes identified expressed as a percentage of the estimate, is used as the measure of quality for genetic dung counts, as follows: 1. Greater than 40% 2. 20% to 40% 3. Less than 20% or not reported. Guesses Both INFORMED GUESSES (IG) and OTHER GUESSES (OG) are given a data quality rating of 3. Survey reliability Population estimate data entered into the AED vary in quality from the identification of individual animals to plain guesswork. The addition of population estimates of varying quality into national, regional and continental totals is, from a statistical viewpoint, strictly invalid and produces misleading results. On the other hand, discarding low-quality estimates would produce equally misleading estimates, as high-quality survey estimates are not available for most areas in which elephants are found. In order to solve this problem, the AED incorporates a system to accommodate all types of estimates by categorizing them according to their type and allocating them into non-overlapping categories. Thus, while it is still impossible to produce a single continental estimate, it is at least possible to obtain totals for a number of categories of differing degrees of reliability. Four categories are used, each associated with a different level of uncertainty. The categories are DEFINITE, PROBABLE, POSSIBLE and SPECULATIVE. In order to place estimates into the appropriate categories, population estimates are classified according to survey type along a scale of survey reliability ranging from A (highest) to E (lowest). Each data reliability category contributes to the four categories as detailed in Table 2. In addition to determining the breakdown of population estimates into DEFINITE, PROBABLE, POSSIBLE and SPECULATIVE numbers of elephants, survey reliability gives an indication of the level of certainty that can be placed on a given estimate, as determined by the type of method employed. Survey reliability gives a basis with which to compare surveys of a given input zone that employ different methodologies. Derivation of National, Regional and Continental Totals The categorization system described above is implemented in the AED through a series of algorithms. When executed, these algorithms categorize each population estimate in terms of data quality and survey reliability. The categorized records are then used to produce national, regional and continental totals. In order to produce national, regional and continental totals, the variances of sample counts are added together in order to produce a 95% confidence interval for the sum of the estimates (Norton-Griffiths, 1978) before allocation of the pooled estimates to the four groups, DEFINITE, PROBABLE, POSSIBLE and SPECULATIVE. This is the reason why the regional totals in the DEFINITE, PROBABLE and POSSIBLE groups are not always the sum of the corresponding national group subtotals. Likewise, the continental total numbers of elephants in these three groups do not match the simple sum of the regional subtotals. 12 DATA TYPES AND CATEGORIZATION | INTRODUCTION African Elephant Status Report 2007 Table 2. Categorization of elephant population estimates according to survey type and contribution of each to the four categories of elephant numbers. Survey Reliability Survey type(s) Categorization of estimates A • INDIVIDUAL REGISTRATIONS (IR) • AERIAL TOTAL COUNTS (AT) • GROUND TOTAL COUNTS (GT) DEFINITE = the population estimate. PROBABLE = none. POSSIBLE = none. SPECULATIVE = none. B • AERIAL SAMPLE COUNTS (AS)or GROUND SAMPLE COUNTS (GS) with 95% confidence limits • DUNG COUNTS (DC) with 95% confidence limits and an estimate of dung decay rate obtained on site DEFINITE = the lower 95% confidence limit of the population estimate (there are at least this number of elephants) or the number actually seen, whichever is greater. PROBABLE = the differencea between the estimate and the lower confidence limit, or between the estimate and the actual number seen or between the estimate and zero, if the lower confidence limit is negativeb . POSSIBLE = the difference between the upper confidence limit and the estimate. SPECULATIVE = none. C • DUNG COUNTS (DC) with 95% confidence limits but no on-site measurement of dung decay rate • GENETIC DUNG COUNTS (GD) DEFINITE = none, or the number actually seen, if givenc . PROBABLE = the population estimate. POSSIBLE = the difference between the upper confidence limit and the estimate. SPECULATIVE = none. D • AERIAL SAMPLE COUNTS (AS), GROUND SAMPLE COUNTS (GS) and DUNG COUNTS (DC) without 95% confidence limits • INFORMED GUESSES (IG) DEFINITE = the number actually seen, if given. PROBABLE = none. POSSIBLE = the population estimate or the lower estimate if a range is given, minus the actual number seen, if given. SPECULATIVE = the difference between upper and lower estimates, if given. E • OTHER GUESSES (OG) • Any of the above survey types in which the estimate is over 10 years old DEFINITE = the number actually seen, if given. PROBABLE = none. POSSIBLE = none. SPECULATIVE = the estimate, or the mean of the upper and lower limit, minus the actual number seen, if given. a. Rounded to the nearest whole number if necessary. b. If the lower confidence limit of the estimate is a negative figure, the estimate will be zero or, if reported, the actual number of elephants seen in the survey. c. For dung counts it is assumed that there are no elephants unless any are observed directly (which is seldom the case). This is because, unlike with aerial surveys, where the estimate is almost invariably lower than the true population size, dung counts may underestimate or overestimate the population size, depending on the choice of parameters used (such as forest area, decay rate, or the mathematical model used). For genetic dung counts (GD) the number of distinct genotypes identified is regarded as the number of elephants actually “seen”. African Elephant Status Report 2007 INTRODUCTION | DATA TYPES AND CATEGORIZATION 13 At all levels of addition (national, regional and continental), estimates in the DEFINITE (Df), PROBABLE (Pr), POSSIBLE (Ps) and SPECULATIVE (Sp) totals are non-overlapping. In other words, a POSSIBLE estimate does not include DEFINITE or PROBABLE estimates. Thus, for a country, a region or the entire continent there are, simply speaking, “definitely” Df elephants, “probably” Df + Pr elephants, “possibly” Df + Pr + Ps elephants and “speculatively” Df + Pr + Ps + Sp elephants. It is important to note that the totals presented for each country and region are minimum estimates, based on the estimates for the areas that have been surveyed or for which guesses are available in that country or region. In many countries, and in all regions, there are large areas of elephant range where elephant numbers have not been estimated. No extrapolations have been performed for these areas in the AED, and they are therefore not included in the totals. If all of the elephant range is listed, then the totals are national estimates. If, on the other hand, estimates are only given for a fraction of the elephant range in the country, the total cannot be considered a total national estimate. For this reason, the estimates given for the regions and for the continent cannot be interpreted as complete regional and continental estimates respectively. Changes in Elephant Numbers One of the questions that most interests decision makers involved in African elephant conservation and management is whether elephant populations increase or decrease over time at the continental level. Many authors have in the past incorrectly compared estimates from different AESRs to derive continental population trends (e.g. Government of Kenya & Government of India, 2002). This is invalid and misleading for a number of reasons, as described in Blanc et al. (2005), from which the text below is adapted. Many of the continent’s elephant populations have never been systematically surveyed. Most elephant surveys tend to concentrate in and around protected areas, although nearly 70% of elephant range may lie outside these (see this report). Any changes reported in the AESRs are only derived from a subset of all elephant populations, and may therefore not reflect overall changes in numbers. The extent of unsurveyed range across the continent amounts to nearly half of the total elephant range in Africa (this report), but even this estimate is subject to considerable uncertainty. As noted above, elephant distribution data for the AED are obtained from questionnaire replies and other potentially unreliable sources, which can quickly become outdated, and knowledge on the actual extent of elephant range remains unreliable. Many important populations are not surveyed frequently and several have only been surveyed once. In consequence, any one AESR repeats a number of estimates from the previous report because these are still the most up-to-date available. This makes using total numbers invalid as a measure of change, as constancy of numbers at some sites reflects only the same information carried forward from one status report to the next. The totals in the DEFINITE and PROBABLE categories may decline where an out-of-date estimate has been degraded to the SPECULATIVE category and no more recent information is available. Conversely, where a population is surveyed for the first time, the resultant increase in the total is due not to population increase, but to the inclusion of new information. False increases (or decreases) may also happen when the boundary of the study area changes between surveys, although the site name remains the same. When only parts of the ranges of elephant populations are included in the surveyed area, changes in estimates may be caused by elephant movements rather than real changes in population size. Even where two successive surveys of the same area are available, misleading changes may be observed when different methods, liable to different levels of accuracy or bias, are used in the two consecutive surveys. Variation in survey conditions – like the time of the year or even the use of different survey crews 14 DATA TYPES AND CATEGORIZATION | INTRODUCTION African Elephant Status Report 2007 – may result in changes in numbers of elephants seen, thus contributing to differences recorded over time. In addition, many estimates come from sample surveys, and are therefore subject to statistical sampling error. As a result, differences between successive estimates could be due purely to chance, but can still make a large contribution to the differences between totals. In order to disentangle these confounding factors from real changes in elephant numbers at the national, regional and continental levels, a new system to track changes in estimates and their ostensible reasons has been devised and implemented in the AED. The system relies on linking estimates contained in the current version of the AED to the corresponding estimates contained in the version of the AED used to produce the previous report, and assigning a “cause of change” to each pair of estimates, as described in Table 3. Changes in estimates are then grouped by cause of change, and overall differences in the DEFINITE, PROBABLE, POSSIBLE and SPECULATIVE categories are calculated at the national, regional and continental levels. While the REPEAT SURVEY group (see Table 3) contains all those sites where surveys have been repeated using comparable methods, not all pairs of estimates in that group are necessarily statistically comparable. Other factors described above but not captured by the tracking system, such as a different season or different survey crew, could still render comparisons meaningless. Where it is suspected that such factors may be responsible for the difference in the estimates, the survey pair is deemed not to be comparable and is marked RS′. Where the more recent surveys in methodologically comparable survey pairs account for a large proportion of the DEFINITE plus PROBABLE estimate for a given region, a statistical comparison of elephant numbers over time, albeit restricted to a segment of the population, can be performed (see Blanc et al., 2005 for details). A list of methodologically comparable surveys featured in this and the previous report is provided in Appendix II. Overall Quality of Information and Survey Priorities The status of African elephants varies considerably across their range, with elephants occurring in large, dense populations in some parts of the continent but only surviving in small, fragmented populations in others. In a very similar way, the quality and extent of knowledge on elephant status varies widely across the continent. Some populations have never been surveyed, or are only surveyed rarely, while others are counted annually. The objectives of the AED include promoting the use of standardized, reliable survey techniques throughout elephant range, as well as facilitating the task of donors, wildlife authorities and decision-makers in prioritizing their efforts to monitor elephant populations. In order to assist in meeting these objectives, a simple index has been developed to measure the quality of elephant population data available at the national, regional and continental levels. Based on this index, a system to identify and prioritize the areas, countries and regions where systematic surveys are most needed has also been developed and implemented in the AED. These new measures, both of which are calculated from data contained in the AED, are described in turn below. Information Quality Index (IQI) If all elephant populations on the continent were systematically surveyed, and unbiased estimates with measured precision produced, the sum of the DEFINITE and PROBABLE categories in the AED would be an accurate statement of true elephant numbers. Even with incomplete data, the sum of these two categories provides the “best estimate” of elephant numbers from systematic surveys (i.e. surveys in data reliability categories A−C). African Elephant Status Report 2007 INTRODUCTION | DATA TYPES AND CATEGORIZATION 15 A good indication of the overall quality of available survey data is given by the ratio of good-quality population data to total population data (i.e. the sum of the DEFINITE, PROBABLE, POSSIBLE and SPECULATIVE categories). This ratio, or ‘probable fraction’ (PF), is therefore defined as In order to make it a more meaningful indicator of the quality of information, however, the PF needs to be combined with a measure of the completeness of estimate coverage. Such a measure can be obtained simply from the proportion of total range for which population estimates (of any quality) are available. Thus, the Assessed Range Fraction (ARF), is calculated as The product of the above two factors gives an unbiased, normalized and scaleable index of the overall quality of information on elephant population estimates. Thus, the IQI is defined as Table 3. Codes and descriptions of causes of change as implemented in the AED. Code Cause of Change Description RS REPEAT SURVEY Both surveys were conducted using comparable methodologies. DA DIFFERENT AREA Both surveys were conducted using the same methodology, but the extent of the areas covered differ by 10% or more. DT DIFFERENT TECHNIQUE The most recent survey uses a different survey methodology, or replaces a guess. NP NEW POPULATION A new entry into the AED, i.e. no previous survey or guess to compare with. PL POPULATION LOST The population is known to have disappeared from the site, be it through translocation or local extinction. NG NEW GUESS A guess replaces an older guess or a survey estimate that has been downgraded to the category of OTHER GUESSES for being more than 10 years old. NA NEW ANALYSIS Data from previous report has been re-analyzed or re-interpreted in the light of new information other than a new estimate. DD DATA DEGRADED The estimate in the previous report has been downgraded to the category of OTHER GUESSES for being more than 10 years old. ⎯ NO CHANGE The estimate has been retained unchanged from previous report. PF DEFINITE PROBABLE+ DEFINITE PROBABLE POSSIBLE SPECULATIVE+ + + -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------= ARF ASSESSED RANGE KNOWN RANGE POSSIBLE RANGE+ ------------------------------------------------------------------------= IQI PF ARF×= 16 DATA TYPES AND CATEGORIZATION | INTRODUCTION African Elephant Status Report 2007 The IQI ranges from zero (no reliable information) to one (perfect information). Thus a country or region where few reliable surveys have been conducted, and which cover only a small portion of its total range, will have a score closer to zero. A country or region where high-quality data are available for most of its elephant range, on the other hand, will have a score close to one. Note that at the infra-national (i.e. site) level, the ARF is constant, and hence the IQI is simply equal to the PF. Priorities for Future Surveys The IQI can further be used to derive an unbiased system for setting priorities as to the areas that are in most need of systematic surveys. For a truly accurate continental picture of elephant abundance to emerge, reliable estimates would have to be available for all elephant range. Thus, countries that account for a large proportion of total continental range should be prioritized more highly. It is therefore important to include in the prioritization system the Continental Range Fraction (CRF) accounted for by each country: To yield a score of Priority for Future Surveys (PFS), the IQI and CRF are combined as follows: When calculated for each country or region, the result of the above equation, rounded to the nearest integer, gives a convenient measure, ranging from 1 to 5, of the countries/regions where population surveys are most needed. At the infra-national (site) level, the CRF is replaced by the proportion of national range accounted for by the site in question. Note that the logarithmic nature of the priority scores means that the difference between two successive priority scores is of an order of magnitude. All areas of elephant range that have never been surveyed, i.e. those for which estimates are currently unavailable, are automatically assigned a priority of 1. Systematic surveys should be conducted in areas of unsurveyed KNOWN range. In areas of DOUBTFUL range and unsurveyed POSSIBLE range, elephant presence/absence should be established prior to conducting systematic population surveys. It is important to stress that neither the IQI nor the PFS are measures of the health of elephant populations, or of overall elephant conservation priorities, but rather of the quality of elephant population data and of the need to conduct systematic surveys in future. For instance, range loss in a country will often result in a decline in the proportion of unassessed range, thus causing the IQI to increase and the priority ranking to decline. A list of all African elephant Range States with their IQI and PFS scores is shown in Appendix I. While it is hoped that the PFS system will prove useful for prioritizing elephant population monitoring efforts, the system is not intended to be prescriptive. Individual Range States may have good reasons to use different criteria and different systems for prioritizing elephant population surveys. CRF COUNTRY RANGE AREA CONTINENTAL RANGE AREA -------------------------------------------------------= PFS 1 IQI+ CRF -------------- ⎝ ⎠ ⎛ ⎞log10= African Elephant Status Report 2007 INTRODUCTION | HOW THIS REPORT IS ORGANIZED 17 H O W T H I S R E P O R T I S O R G A N I Z E D Information in this report is presented at the continental, regional and national levels. The continental section is followed by regional sections, each of which contains the relevant individual country sections, in alphabetical order. Each section follows the format described below. Overview Each section begins with a brief overview intended to supplement the information provided by the maps and tables that follow. The overviews are not intended to provide the reader with exhaustive information on each country, but simply to describe the current situation and to highlight any factors that may have contributed to it. This report no longer contains Historical Background sections featured in the previous report; readers interested in the history of elephant populations can consult the AESR 2002 (Blanc et al., 2003). The overview contains the following sub-sections: General Statistics. This section provides summary statistics of country area, protected area coverage, area of elephant range, amount of elephant range in protected areas, and the amount of range which has been surveyed or has elephant population estimates, IQI, CITES Appendix and year of CITES listing. Only protected areas that fall within the IUCN protected area management categories I through IV have been included for these calculations. While many important management areas for elephants belong in categories V (Protected Landscapes) and VI (Managed Resource Areas), their conservation importance and effective protection is far from uniform across the continent. Current Issues. Any issues that may, directly or indirectly, affect elephant populations and their conservation and management. These may include poaching, political conflict, refugee crises, land use and wildlife management policies. Range Data. Summary information on how elephant range was determined and categorized, as well as any changes made to the map since the last report. Population Data. Description of the areas that have been surveyed and the methods employed, and how the data have been interpreted and categorized. Any changes between individual and pooled estimates are described and explained here. Cross-border Movements. Information on movements of elephants across international borders. This section is ommited from the Continental Overview. The text overviews are followed by three tables that summarize elephant population estimates, changes in estimates since the previous report, and the areas of range covered by each type of estimate. These tables are described in turn below. Summary Tables Summary Totals Table The summary totals tables present pooled estimates at the national, regional and continental levels, separated into four groups, DEFINITE, PROBABLE, POSSIBLE and SPECULATIVE numbers of elephants, based on the survey reliability categories (A-E) described in the Data Types and Categorization section. It is worth repeating that the totals presented for each country are not necessarily complete national estimates, and depend on the amount of range that is covered by estimates (see below). Totals from the previous report are also shown on the table. 18 HOW THIS REPORT IS ORGANIZED | INTRODUCTION African Elephant Status Report 2007 Interpretation of Changes in Elephant Estimates since the Previous Report This table shows the breakdown and net changes in the four categories of elephant estimates, grouped by the ostensible reason for change, as described in Table 3. Due to the method of pooling variances to calculate totals in the four categories, the calculated changes would not necessarily add up to the net changes between the estimates presented in this report and the AESR 2002. Thus, and in order to make the rows of the table add up to the net, each component figure is adjusted by dividing it by the net difference between the two reports and multiplying that by the total change calculated through pooling variances. In a few cases, however, the discrepancy between the net and calculated changes is such that the sign of the components is reversed. In such cases, the change is proportional to the magnitude of change, but not to its direction. Area of Range Covered by Each Data Category These tables depict the contribution of each survey type to the total area (in km²) for which estimates are available. In addition, areas of unassessed KNOWN and POSSIBLE range are also shown on the tables. Pooled estimates of elephant numbers for countries or regions where large areas of range remain unassessed are likely to be underestimates. Large areas of unassessed POSSIBLE range, however, could simply reflect inadequate information on current elephant distribution. Table of Estimates and Map A map is shown for each country, region and the entire continent, showing elephant distribution, input zones, protected areas, national and/or regional boundaries, major towns, rivers and lakes. Neighbouring countries and regions are shown to highlight important cross-border populations, as well as the spatial relationships between elephant populations in different countries. A thumbnail locator map is shown at the bottom of each map to easily identify the location of the country in the continental context. Input zones are shown with a grey hatched pattern. The reliability of the associated population estimate is reflected by the spacing of the hatching, with reliable surveys being depicted with a more closely spaced hatching than guesses. Elephant range is displayed according to the elephant range categories described in the Data Types and Categorization section above. KNOWN range is shown in dark green, POSSIBLE range in light green, and DOUBTFUL range is displayed in a dotted pattern, while NON-RANGE is transparent (white). POINT SIGHTINGS are shown as crosses on the map. Protected area boundaries are shown in khaki, and are individually labelled on national maps. The official designations of protected areas are abbreviated on the labels; a list of these abbreviations can be found in Appendix IV. An alphabetical list of protected areas within elephant range, including details on surface area, year of establishment, IUCN Category, and the country in which they are found is shown in Appendix III. Note that the IUCN Category of any given protected area is not necessarily an indication of the effectiveness of protection. Each country map is preceded by a national table of estimates showing an alphabetical listing of input zones. By providing the location of the centroid of each input zone in decimal geographic coordinates, the table also serves as a key to the input zones shown on the map. In addition, national tables of estimates present details on estimates, their quality and other metadata, as described in Table 4. The columns shown in the regional and continental tables are different from those shown in the country tables, and they are described in Table 5. African Elephant Status Report 2007 INTRODUCTION | HOW THIS REPORT IS ORGANIZED 19 Table 4. Details and survey parameters provided in national tables of estimates in this report Column Description INPUT ZONE Name of the input zone followed by its legal designation (if any), e.g. Kruger National Park. CAUSE OF CHANGE Attributed reason for the change in the estimate with respect to the previous report. As described in the Data Types and Categorization section, causes of change are coded DA (DIFFERENT AREA), DD (DATA DEGRADED), DT (DIFFERENT TECHNIQUE), NA (NEW ANALYSIS), NG (NEW GUESS), NP (NEW POPULATION), PL (POPULATION LOST) and RS (REPEAT SURVEY). Where an estimate has been retained from the previous report, a dash (⎯) is shown to indicate that the estimate has not changed. Where a new systematic survey has been conducted (i.e. RS, DA, DT and NP), the cause of change code is shown in bold type. SURVEY TYPE Type of survey conducted and its assigned quality score (1, 2 or 3), as described under the Data Types and Categorization section. SURVEY RELIABILITY (RELIAB.) Category (A, B, C, D or E) into which the elephant population estimate falls. Survey reliability is dependent on survey type and additional criteria, as described in the Data Types and Categorization section. SURVEY YEAR Year in which the survey was conducted, or in case of guesswork, the year to which the guess applies. NUMBER OF ELEPHANTS Elephant population estimate from the survey or guess reported. 95% C.L. The 95% confidence limit for the estimate or, in the case of INFORMED GUESSES, the upper range of the guess marked with an asterisk. This cell is blank for surveys in which there are no confidence limits (e.g. total counts and unreliable dung counts), as well as for OTHER GUESSES. SOURCE Author(s) and year of the report, questionnaire reply, personal communication or published source from which the estimate was obtained. All sources appear in the list of references at the back of this report. PRIORITY FOR FUTURE SURVEYS (PFS) Based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of national range accounted for by the input zone, the PFS is a measure of the importance and urgency of the need for future systematic surveys. Priorities range from 1 (highest) to 5 (lowest). All areas of unassessed range (i.e. un-hatched areas on the map) are considered to be of the highest priority (1). For full details on the how the PFS is calculated, please refer to the Data Types and Categorization section. AREA Size of the input zone in square kilometres (km²). Where available, the area given is as reported by the reference source. If unreported, the area is either derived from the size of the protected area(s) to which the estimate refers, or is calculated using the GIS in the Lambert Azimuthal Equal area projection. MAP LOCATION Longitude (LON) and latitude (LAT) of the centroid of the input zone, given in decimal degrees with one decimal. 20 HOW THIS REPORT IS ORGANIZED | INTRODUCTION African Elephant Status Report 2007 Table 5. Details of the columns shown in the regional and continental tables of estimates of this report. Column Description COUNTRY / REGION Name of the country or region. ELEPHANT NUMBERS Elephant numbers in the four categories (DEFINITE, PROBABLE, POSSIBLE and SPECULATIVE). RANGE AREA (KM²) Estimated total elephant range area (KNOWN + POSSIBLE range) in the country or region. % OF REGIONAL RANGE Percentage of the regional/continental range accounted for by the country/region in question. Rounded to the nearest integer. % OF RANGE ASSESSED Percentage of elephant range in the country or region for which elephant estimates are available. INFORMATION QUALITY INDEX (IQI) In the regional tables, the IQI is shown for each country, and for the entire region in the totals row. In the continental table, the IQI is shown for each region and for the continent in the totals row. Please refer to the Data Types and Categorization section for details on how the IQI is calculated. A complete list of all Range States with their IQI scores can be found in Appendix I. PRIORITY FOR FUTURE SURVEYS (PFS) In the regional tables, the PFS is shown for each country, and for the entire region in the totals row. In the continental table, the PFS is shown for each region. No priority is shown for the continent as a whole. Please refer to the Data Types and Categorization section for details on how the PFS score is calculated. A complete list of all Range States with their PFS scores can be found in Appendix I. African Elephant Status Report 2007 AFRICA | CONTINENTAL OVERVIEW 21 A F R I C A C O N T I N E N T A L O V E R V I E W General Statistics Total area: 22,617,267 km² Range area (% of continent): 3,335,827 km² (22%) Protected area coverage (% of continent): 9% Protected range (% of known and possible range in protected areas): 31% Information Quality Index (IQI): 0.41 Current Issues In broad terms, the main issues affecting elephant conservation across the continent today are habitat loss and fragmentation; human-elephant conflict; poaching for meat and ivory; and negative localized impacts of elephants on their habitats. The relative importance of these issues varies considerably across countries and regions, and these are discussed in more detail at the regional and national levels. In response to the issues and threats identified, two regions, namely West and Central Africa, have developed their own regional strategies for the conservation of elephants (AfESG, 2003a, 2005), and Southern Africa has now embarked on a similar process. The one issue that continues to engage the continent as a whole is the debate over the legalization of the international trade in ivory, which still divides countries holding diametrically opposing views. Range Data Elephants occur in 37 Range States in sub-Saharan Africa. Savanna elephants (Loxodonta africana africana) are found predominantly in Eastern and Southern Africa, while forest elephants (Loxodonta africana cyclotis) occur primarily in the Congo Basin of Central Africa. In West Africa, elephants live in both forest and savanna habitats, but their taxonomic status remains uncertain. The distribution of elephants varies considerably across the four regions – from small, fragmented populations in West Africa to vast, virtually undisturbed tracts of elephant range in Central and Southern Africa. Southern Africa has the largest extent of elephant range of any region, and accounts for 39% of the species’ total range area. Central and Eastern Africa follow with 29% and 26% of the continental total respectively, while West Africa accounts for only 5%. Detailed knowledge of the status of elephant distribution is scanty in many parts of the continent, however, particularly in Central Africa, and in countries emerging from armed conflict, such as Angola, Sudan, Liberia and Sierra Leone. The total area of elephant range at the continental level is currently estimated at over 3.3 million km². This is nearly 1.6 million km², or 32%, less than the range estimated for the previous report. This change in the estimated range is primarily due to the updating and improvement of previously unreliable information on elephant distribution, particularly in Central Africa, and should not be construed as a rapid reduction in actual elephant range in recent years. Improved knowledge of elephant distribution is reflected in the proportion of range categorized as KNOWN, which has increased from 38% to 63%. Much of the remaining information on POSSIBLE range is now over 10 years old. Population Data This report features new or updated estimates for a total of 197 sites, over three-quarters of which are derived from systematic surveys. The proportion of elephant range for which elephant estimates are available, currently standing at 51%, has not changed notably since the previous report. However, the overall reliability of estimates has increased considerably, with estimates from systematic surveys now 22 CONTINENTAL OVERVIEW | AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 accounting for 29% of total range, versus 17% in the previous report. Indeed, the overall quality of information, as measured by the IQI, has improved by 20% since the previous report as a result of new surveys in previously unassessed areas and the replacement of guesses with estimates from systematic surveys. Holding nearly 58% of the continent’s DEFINITE plus PROBABLE elephants, Southern Africa has by far the largest known number of elephants in any region. Eastern Africa comes a distant second, with 30%. While Central Africa is an even more distant third (10.7%), its regional estimates in the POSSIBLE and SPECULATIVE categories are large compared to other regions. A substantial investment to improve the quality of data for Central Africa may therefore considerably increase its ranking in this respect. With only 1.5% of the continental DEFINITE plus PROBABLE estimate, West Africa continues to hold the smallest regional population by any measure. The number of elephants in the DEFINITE category has increased by about 70,200 since the AESR 2002, largely as a result of updated estimates for sites where comparable survey techniques were employed. The estimate under the PROBABLE category has increased by over 23,600, primarily due to new dung count estimates in Gabon, where estimates had previously been degraded to the category of OTHER GUESSES because they were long out of date. Figures under the POSSIBLE and SPECULATIVE categories, on the other hand, have declined by around 15,500 and 49,000 respectively. This is largely due to new guesses, the degradation of old data from the POSSIBLE to the SPECULATIVE category, the reanalysis of old data for Gabon and the removal of guesses for areas of the Democratic Republic of Congo where elephants may not have even been present at the time of the previous report. In other words, the changes in these two categories are reflective of changes in the quality of information, and not of actual changes in elephant numbers. Estimates from methodologically comparable surveys (i.e. those labelled REPEAT SURVEY or RS in the national tables of estimates) account for over two-thirds of the continental DEFINITE plus PROBABLE estimate. However, most comparable surveys were conducted in Southern and Eastern Africa (see Appendix II for a list of sites), and it would not be valid to analyze continental changes based largely on data from these two regions. It is nevertheless possible to conduct an analysis restricted to the data from these two regions combined (see Blanc et al. (2005) for details on methods), which together account for 88% of the continental DEFINITE plus PROBABLE estimate. The results of this analysis indicate an increase of 66,302 elephants (95% CI 21,777 to 110,827) in the combined estimates for the comparable populations. This highly significant increase (t = 2.92, p < 0.01) translates into an estimated annual rate of increase of 4.00% (95% CI of rate 1.14% to 6.58%) in the comparable populations during the period between the AESR 2002 and this report. It should be emphasized that these results refer only to the relevant total numbers, as there are insufficient data in most cases to make valid comparisons at the site level. Similarly, the results do not imply a uniform increase across all sites, but merely an increase on average. Although the estimated rates of increase are within biologically possible limits, it is impossible to determine whether changes are due solely to natural population growth. While the possibility that elephant movements may have contributed to the observed increases cannot be ruled out, it is unlikely that much of the unsurveyed range contains high densities of elephants. It must be reiterated that this analysis says nothing about the situation in Central or West Africa, where there are insufficient data to draw any conclusions. The results of similar analyses conducted at the regional level can be found in the Overview sections for Eastern and Southern Africa. African Elephant Status Report 2007 AFRICA | CONTINENTAL OVERVIEW 23 SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEData Category DEFINITE CONTINENTAL SUMMARY TOTALS Aerial or Ground Total Counts 52,320 0 00 Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts 416,703 36,566 036,566 Other Dung Counts 601 46,138 08,788 Informed Guesses 2,645 0 6,14838,980 Other Guesses 0 0 44,2160 TOTALS 2006 472,269 82,704 84,334 50,364 TOTALS 2002 402,067 59,024 99,813 99,307 INTERPRETATION OF CHANGES IN ESTIMATES FROM PREVIOUS REPORT SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEDEFINITECause of Change Repeat Survey +53,703 +5,897 +7,715 -617 New Population +3,772 +857 +3,580 +1,480 Different Technique +10,720 +24,031 +2,582 -7,048 Different Area +24,540 -2,631 -2,286 0 New Guess -6,536 -1,283 -9,747 -4,999 New Analysis -6,816 -700 -11,058 -44,885 Population Lost 0 0 -63 -171 Data Degraded -9,180 -2,490 -6,203 +7,297 -48,943-15,479+23,680+70,202NET CHANGE AREA OF RANGE COVERED BY EACH DATA CATEGORY (km²) 170,682 678,335 83,328 172,379 411,597 597,909 2,114,230 12,334 36,939 24 30,022 113,026 1,029,252 1,221,597 183,016 715,274 83,352 202,400 524,623 1,627,161 3,335,827TOTAL Unassessed Range Other Guesses Informed Guesses Other Dung Counts Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts Aerial or Ground Total Counts Total RangePossible RangeKnown RangeData Category 24 CONTINENTAL OVERVIEW | AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 AFRICA: CONTINENTAL AND REGIONAL TOTALS & DATA QUALITY % OF RANGE ASSESSED % OF CONTINENAL RANGE PFS² RANGE AREA (km²) REGION IQI¹ ELEPHANT NUMBERS SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEDEFINITE 29 52Central Africa 43,098 34,12948,93610,383 975,079 10.22 26 45Eastern Africa 35,124 3,54329,043137,485 880,063 20.36 39 53Southern Africa 24,734 9,75323,186297,718 1,305,140 10.48 5 66West Africa 1,129 2,9397357,487 175,545 30.44 TOTAL* 472,269 82,704 84,334 50,364 3,335,827 0.4151100 * Note that totals for the Definite, Probable and Possible categories are derived by pooling the variances of individual estimates, as described under the Data Types and Categorization section. As a result, totals do not necessarily match the simple sum of the entries within a given category. ¹ IQI: Information Quality Index. This index quantifies overall data quality at the regional level based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of assessed elephant range (i.e. range for which estimates are available). The IQI ranges from zero (no reliable information) to one (perfect information). See the Introduction section for details on how the IQI is calculated. ² PFS: Priority for Future Surveys, ranked from 1 (highest) to 5 (lowest). Based on the IQI and the proportion of continental range accounted for by the region in question, PFS is a measure of the importance and urgency for future population surveys, particularly in areas of unassessed range and areas not surveyed in the last 10 years or more. See the Introduction section for details on how the PFS is derived. African Elephant Status Report 2007 AFRICA | CONTINENTAL OVERVIEW 25 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !!!! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P SS oo uu tt hh ee rr nn AA ff rr ii cc aa WW ee ss tt AA ff rr ii cc aa EE aa ss tt ee rr nn AA ff rr ii cc aa CC ee nn tt rr aa ll AA ff rr ii cc aa PORTO NOVO LUANDA ABUJA HARARE LUSAKA BRAZZAVILLE MBABANE KHARTOUM PRETORIA (Tshwane) MOGADISHU FREETOWN KIGALI KAMPALA LOMÉ DAR ES SALAAM NIAMEY WINDHOEK MAPUTO BAMAKO LILONGWE MONROVIA BISSAU CONAKRY ACCRA LIBREVILLE ADDIS ABABA ASMARA KINSHASA NDJAMENA BANGUI YAOUNDE NAIROBI YAMOUSSOUKRO OUAGADOUGOU GABORONE 10°W 10°W 0° 0° 10°E 10°E 20°E 20°E 30°E 30°E 40°E 40°E 50°E 50°E 30°S 30°S 20°S 20°S 10°S 10°S 0° 0° 10°N 10°N 20°N 20°N 30°N 30°N 40°N 40°N Regional Boundary International Boundary !P Capital Cities Elephant Range Known Possible ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Doubtful E l e p h a n t R a n g e i n A f r i c aE l e p h a n t R a n g e i n A f r i c a African Elephant Specialist Group 0 1,400 2,800700 km This map is unprojected. Scale is indicative only. Sources: African Elephant Database Digital Chart of the World 26 REGIONAL OVERVIEW | CENTRAL AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 C E N T R A L A F R I C A R E G I O N A L O V E R V I E W General Statistics Total Area: 5,365,550 km² Range area (% of region): 975,079 km² (38%) Protected area coverage (% of region): 9% Protected range (% of known and possible range in protected areas): 33% Information Quality Index (IQI): 0.22 Current Issues There have been widespread reports in recent years of intense poaching for both ivory and meat throughout much of Central Africa, and the region is believed to be the main source of ivory currently supplying the world’s illegal trade (Hunter et al., 2004). Poaching is exacerbated by new roads for logging operations and mineral and oil extraction, which provide both access to deep forest and routes for the transport of ivory and meat. A widespread lack of institutional capacity and resources, coupled with difficulties associated with monitoring in forests, result in a general lack of reliable information on the status of elephant populations in the region. While it is therefore difficult to ascertain the impact that the above threats may be having on elephant populations, it is feared that elephant numbers may be declining in Central Africa as a whole. The Congo Basin Forest Partnership (CBFP), established in 2002 under the aegis of the Council of Ministers in charge of the Forests of Central Africa (COMIFAC), received substantial funding from the United States government over the 2003-2005 period. Funds were largely focused on 11 priority landscapes, all of which are in elephant range, and were aimed at improving capacity, regional cooperation and law enforcement efforts. In 2005, Central African Governments collaborated in the development of a regional elephant conservation strategy (AfESG, 2005). The strategy aims to reduce the illegal killing of elephants, prevent the fragmentation of elephant populations, improve knowledge on the status of populations and their habitats, and to change the negative perceptions of the wider public in the region with respect to elephants. Range Data Most of the continent’s tropical forests are found in Central Africa, with forest originally occupying much of the current KNOWN and POSSIBLE range estimate of nearly 1 million km². The majority of this range is inhabited by forest elephants (Loxodonta africana cyclotis), with savanna elephants (Loxodonta africana africana) occurring in northern Cameroon, northern Central African Republic and Chad. Areas of potential hybridization between forest and savanna elephants exist in northern and eastern Democratic Republic of Congo and possibly in southern Central African Republic. Central Africa ranks second amongst the regions in terms of range extent, accounting for 29% of the continental total, but the estimated range area is less than half that reported in the AESR 2002. This results from the re-classification as DOUBTFUL range of large tracts of formerly POSSIBLE range in Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Congo and the Democratic Republic of Congo (see individual country sections for details). The difference is a consequence of better and more updated information, and is not necessarily an indication of a recent reduction in the extent of actual elephant range. Nevertheless, although most (93%) of the range data for Central Africa is less than 10 years old, and the proportion of African Elephant Status Report 2007 CENTRAL AFRICA | REGIONAL OVERVIEW 27 SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEData Category DEFINITE SUMMARY TOTALS FOR CENTRAL AFRICA Aerial or Ground Total Counts 3,885 0 0 0 Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts 6,166 4,260 4,260 0 Other Dung Counts 0 44,676 8,775 0 Informed Guesses 332 0 30,063 4,105 Other Guesses 0 0 0 30,024 TOTAL 2006 10,383 48,936 43,098 34,129 TOTALS 2002 16,450 32,263 64,477 82,563 INTERPRETATION OF CHANGES IN ESTIMATES FROM PREVIOUS REPORT SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEDEFINITECause of Change Repeat Survey +548 +1,431 +1,768 0 New Population 0 0 +2,210 +1,376 Different Technique -3,130 +29,895 +3,641 -5,239 Different Area -1,130 -10,826 -4,363 0 New Guess -171 -1,645 -11,848 -4,749 New Analysis -21 +20 -9,536 -44,862 Data Degraded -2,163 -2,202 -3,250 +5,040 TOTAL CHANGE -6,067 -48,434-21,379+16,673 AREA OF RANGE COVERED BY EACH DATA CATEGORY (km²) 3,151 62,012 71,491 77,576 258,652 323,430 796,310 0 1,800 0 1,816 27,890 147,263 178,769 3,151 63,812 71,491 79,392 286,542 470,693 975,079TOTAL Unassessed Range Other Guesses Informed Guesses Other Dung Counts Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts Aerial or Ground Total Counts Total RangePossible RangeKnown RangeData Category 28 REGIONAL OVERVIEW | CENTRAL AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 COUNTRY DEFINITE RANGE AREA (km²)SPECULATIVEPROBABLE POSSIBLE CENTRAL AFRICA: COUNTRY AND REGIONAL TOTALS & DATA QUALITY PFS² % OF REGIONAL RANGE % OF RANGE ASSESSED IQI¹ ELEPHANT NUMBERS Cameroon 179 726 9,5174,965 118,571 112 45 0.03 Central African Republic 109 1,689 5001,036 73,453 28 95 0.51 Chad 3,885 0 5502,000 149,443 115 26 0.15 Congo 402 16,947 7294,024 135,918 114 23 0.18 Democratic Republic of Congo 2,447 7,955 4,4578,855 263,700 127 40 0.18 Equatorial Guinea 0 0 630700 15,008 22 13 0.00 Gabon 1,523 23,457 17,74627,911 218,985 122 94 0.33 10,383 48,936 43,098 34,129 975,079TOTAL* 129 52 0.22 * Note that totals for the Definite, Probable and Possible categories are derived by pooling the variances of individual estimates, as described under the Data Types and Categorization section. As a result, totals do not necessarily match the simple sum of the entries within a given category. ¹ IQI: Information Quality Index. This index quantifies overall data quality at the national and regional levels based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of assessed elephant range (i.e. range for which estimates are available). The IQI ranges from zero (no reliable information) to one (perfect information). See the Introduction section for a detailed explanation of how the IQI is calculated. ² PFS: Priority for Future Surveys, ranked from 1 to 5 (highest to lowest). Based on the IQI and the proportion of continental range accounted for by the country in question, the PFS is a measure of the importance and urgency for future population surveys, particularly in areas of unassessed range and areas not surveyed in the last 10 years or more. See Introduction for a more detailed explanation of how the priority ranking is derived. African Elephant Status Report 2007 CENTRAL AFRICA | REGIONAL OVERVIEW 29 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 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! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 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! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !P !P !P !P !P P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P Zambia Uganda Tanzania Chad Sudan Rwanda Nigeria Niger Mozambique Malawi Mali Libya Kenya Equatorial Guinea Gabon Ethiopia Eritrea Egypt Algeria Cameroon Congo Central African Republic Democratic Republic of Congo Benin Burundi Angola PORTO NOVO LUANDA ABUJA BRAZZAVILLE KHARTOUM KIGALI KAMPALA LOMÉ NIAMEY LILONGWE LIBREVILLE KINSHASA NDJAMENA BANGUI YAOUNDE NAIROBI 10°E 10°E 20°E 20°E 30°E 30°E 10°S 10°S 0° 0° 10°N 10°N 20°N 20°N C e n t r a l A f r i c aC e n t r a l A f r i c a African Elephant Specialist Group This map is unprojected. Scale is indicative only. Sources: African Elephant Database Digital Chart of the World Regional Boundary International Boundary !P CAPITAL CITIES Rivers & Lakes Protected Areas Input Zones Elephant Range Known Possible ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Doubtful 0 740 1,480370 km 30 REGIONAL OVERVIEW | CENTRAL AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 range classified as KNOWN has increased from 36% to 82%, knowledge of elephant distribution remains unreliable in many parts of the region. Two countries, namely the Democratic Republic of Congo and Gabon, account for nearly half of the regional range estimate. Most of the remaining half is distributed approximately equally between Cameroon, Congo and Chad, with the Central African Republic and Equatorial Guinea accounting for 8% and 2% respectively. Although a third of the estimated range area lies within designated protected areas, many parks and reserves in the region lack any form of management or effective protection. Population Data Survey activity has increased in Central Africa in recent years, largely as a result of initiatives such as the CITES MIKE Programme and the CBFP, but few surveys have provided reliable estimates of absolute elephant abundance. Out of 27 new estimates featured in this report, 16 derive from systematic surveys, but only six are sufficiently reliable to yield estimates in the DEFINITE category, and four of them are aerial surveys in savanna elephant areas. Only two reliable dung counts were conducted in the forest zone since the last report, namely in Conkouati (Congo) (Vanleeuwe, 2006) and in Lopé (Gabon) (Maisels et al., 2006). Surveys conducted for the CITES MIKE Programme in Central Africa during 2003 and 2004 (Blake, 2005) have only yielded estimates in the categories of OTHER DUNG COUNTS, INFORMED GUESSES and OTHER GUESSES. Estimates of elephant abundance are only available for just over half a million km², or 52% of the total regional elephant range. This represents a decline in coverage with respect to the previous report, both in relative and absolute terms. The decline is largely attributable to the removal of large tracts of former POSSIBLE range and their associated estimates in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Reliable estimates are only available for 13% of assessed range, while guesses still account for 73%. Consequently, elephants in the POSSIBLE and SPECULATIVE categories still outnumber those in the DEFINITE and PROBABLE groups. Although the estimate under the DEFINITE category has increased in areas where surveys have been repeated using comparable techniques, the overall number of DEFINITE elephants has declined by over 6,000, largely caused by the downgrading of old survey estimates to the SPECULATIVE category, as well as by new estimates obtained using different techniques and covering different areas. Numbers in the PROBABLE category have increased by over 16,500 as a result of new estimates using different census techniques. The considerable declines in the POSSIBLE and SPECULATIVE categories largely result from new guesses and data degradation, but more significantly from the removal of estimates for areas that are no longer believed to hold elephants in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Although overall data quality, as measured by the IQI, has improved compared to the previous report, Central Africa continues to be the region with the lowest ranking on this score, and it is impossible to make valid comparisons of elephant numbers over time for the region. At the country level, the quality of available information is currently lowest in Equatorial Guinea, followed by Cameroon, which still holds elephant populations of potential continental significance. Chad, Congo and the Democratic Republic of Congo all have comparably low levels of data quality, while Gabon and Central African Republic have the highest overall levels in the region. Cross-border Movements Elephant movements may occur between Central and Eastern Africa, across the borders of the Democratic Republic of Congo with Sudan and Uganda. In addition, movements occur between Central and West Africa, across the borders of Cameroon and Nigeria. African Elephant Status Report 2007 CENTRAL AFRICA | CAMEROON 31 C A M E R O O N General Statistics Country area: 475,440 km² Range area (% of country): 118,571 km² (37%) Protected area coverage (% of country): 8% Protected range (% of known and possible range in protected areas): 26% Information Quality Index (IQI): 0.03 CITES Appendix: I Listing Year: 1989 Current Issues In 2002 Cameroon was identified as having the largest unregulated domestic ivory market in Central Africa, and also as an important entrepôt in the illicit international ivory trade (Milliken, 2002; TRAFFIC, 2004). Consequently, and as required by the draft Action Plan for the Control of the Trade in African Elephant Ivory adopted at the 13th Meeting of the Conference of the Parties to CITES (CITES Secretariat, 2004), Cameroon embarked on a programme to stem the illegal trade in ivory and other wildlife products. A considerable number of arrests and ivory seizures have been made in recent years. Despite these measures, it is widely believed that illegal logging and poaching for ivory and bushmeat continue to pose a threat to elephant populations (Usongo, 2003). These problems are compounded by inadequate law enforcement, particularly in the southeast, as well as by the lack of reliable and up-to-date information on the status of elephant populations in spite of the ubiquitous presence of international conservation organizations in the country’s major protected areas. Cameroon continues to have a annual CITES export quota for elephant trophies of 160 tusks (80 animals) (UNEP-WCMC, 2006), but this quota is not based on elephant population monitoring data (Blake, 2005). The Boumba Bek and Nki Forest Reserves in southern Cameroon, both of which are believed to hold important elephant populations, were declared national parks in October 2005 as part of a transboundary conservation initiative, jointly developed with the Governments of Congo and Gabon. Range Data Elephants in Cameroon occur in three distinct biogeographical regions. Savanna elephants (Loxodonta africana africana) are found in the northern Sahelian and Sudanian regions, while forest elephants (Loxodonta africana cyclotis) occur in the southern forested area (Tchamba et al., 1997). The Cameroon range map has been substantially altered for this report. The extent of KNOWN range in the southeast has been considerably reduced, with some areas categorized as DOUBTFUL range, based on detailed information provided by Sánchez Ariño (2004). Parts of the remaining KNOWN range in the southeast have been updated with information from de Wachter (2000). A recent exploration of the Mbam-Djerem National Park only found signs of elephant presence around the central and southern sectors (F.G. Maisels, pers. comm., 2006c). This area has been categorized as KNOWN range, while the rest of the park appears as DOUBTFUL range. An area to the southeast of Mbam Djerem has also been categorized as KNOWN range using information from an analysis of potential routes for an oil pipeline connecting southern Chad to the Atlantic Ocean (Johnson, 1999). The same study found evidence of elephant movements in the northeast, close to the Chadian border, and this is depicted in the form of two crosses on the map. 32 CAMEROON | CENTRAL AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 Cross-border Movements Satellite tracking work suggests that elephants disperse from their northern savanna range as far as Lake Chad and into Nigeria (Loomis, 2002) in the dry season. There is evidence that elephants leave Bouba Ndjidah National Park in the wet season and move into the Gagal-Yapala region of Chad, where they cause crop damage (Tchamba et al., 1997). Further south, elephants also appear to move between southwestern Chad and Cameroon (Johnson, 1999). A satellite tracking programme documented the sporadic movement of elephants across the Sangha River between Cameroon and the Central African Republic (Usongo, 2003). A similar program, started more recently in Nki National Park, has yet to find any evidence of movement across the border to Congo. Elephants also move across to Gabon (de Wachter, 2000) and Equatorial Guinea (Bekhuis & Prins, 2003) to the south. African Elephant Status Report 2007 CENTRAL AFRICA | CAMEROON 33 SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEData Category DEFINITE SUMMARY TOTALS FOR CAMEROON 02957260Other Dung Counts 1,3204,6700179Informed Guesses 8,197000Other Guesses 179 726 4,965 9,517TOTALS 2006 TOTALS 2002 2,006 3,058 9,017 3,160 INTERPRETATION OF CHANGES IN ESTIMATES FROM PREVIOUS REPORT SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEDEFINITECause of Change Repeat Survey 0 -368 +219 0 New Population 0 0 +1,405 +345 Different Technique 0 +178 +147 -157 New Guess +175 0 -2,212 +1,025 Data Degraded -2,002 -2,142 -3,610 +5,144 TOTAL CHANGE -1,827 -2,332 -4,052 +6,357 AREA OF RANGE COVERED BY EACH DATA CATEGORY (km²) 1,503 7,767 17,269 31,842 58,381 0 734 26,597 32,860 60,190 1,503 8,501 43,865 64,702 118,571TOTAL Unassessed Range Other Guesses Informed Guesses Other Dung Counts Total RangePossible RangeKnown RangeData Category 34 CAMEROON | CENTRAL AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 AREA (km²) INPUT ZONE ESTIMATE 95% C.L. SOURCE NUMBER OF ELEPHANTS CAMEROON: ELEPHANT ESTIMATES LAT.LON. MAP LOCATION TYPE RELIAB. SURVEY DETAILS² YEAR CAUSE OF CHANGE¹ PFS³ 1,540Abong-Mbang Forest Reserve 1994 100 A. Ekobo, pers. comm., 1994EOG3 13.1 E 4.2 N––– 2 662Bayang-Mbo Wildlife Sanctuary 2001 457 Bechem & Nchanji, 2001DDC2 9.6 E 5.3 NRS´ 3 1,800Benoué National Park 1991 540 DFPN, 1991EIG3 13.8 E 8.3 N––– 2 2,200Bouba Ndjidah National Park 1991 660 DFPN, 1991EIG3 14.7 E 8.6 N––– 2 2,383Boumba-Bek National Park 2004 318 Blake, 2005DIG3 15.0 E 2.7 NNG 2 255 648Campo (South) National Park 2001 548 Bekhuis & Prins, 2003CDC2 10.1 E 2.3 N––– 3 500* 5,260Dja Faunal Reserve 1995 1,500 M.N. Tchamba, pers. comm., 1995 EIG3 13.0 E 3.1 NDD 2 3,300Faro National Park 1991 60 Tchamba, 1993EIG3 12.7 E 8.2 N––– 2 271 1,259Korup National Park 1993 425 Powell, quest. reply, 1993EDC3 9.0 E 5.2 NDD 2 2,125 1,985Lobéké National Park 1993 3,719 Ekobo, 1995EDC2 15.9 E 2.3 NDD 2 10* 654Ma'an Region 2000 4 Matthews & Matthews, 2000DIG3 10.4 E 2.3 N––– 3 285* 1,425Mengame Wildlife Sanctuary 2003 1,354 Halford et al., 2003DIG3 12.3 E 2.3 NNP 2 53 850Mongokele Forest Reserve 1991 773 A. Ekobo, pers. comm., 1994EDC2 16.0 E 2.0 N––– 3 148 676Mt. Cameroon 2003 178 Ekobo, 2003CDC3 9.2 E 4.2 NDT 3 1,815Nki Forest Reserve 1998 2,178 A. Ekobo, pers. comm., 1998DDC3 14.5 E 2.4 N––– 2 24,985Sudanian Area 1991 360 DFPN, 1991EIG3 13.7 E 8.3 N––– 1 1025* 1,700Waza National Park 2002 475 Saleh et al., 2002DIG3 14.7 E 11.3 NNG 2 2,425Yabassi Area 2002 63 WWF Cameroon, 2003DIG3 10.3 E 4.5 NNP 2 25Yoko Area 1999 60 T. Sánchez Ariño, pers. comm., 2004 EOG3 12.4 E 5.6 NNP 4 * Range of informed guess ¹ Key to Causes of Change: DA: Different Area; DD: Data Degraded; DT: Different Technique; NA: New Analysis; NG: New Guess; NP: New population; PL: Population Lost; RS: Repeat Survey (RS´ denotes a repeat survey that is not statistically comparable for reasons such as different season); –––: No Change ² Key to Survey Types: AS: Aerial Sample Count; AT: Aerial Total Count; DC: Dung Count; GD: Genetic Dung Count; GS: Ground Sample Count; GT: Ground Total Count; IG: Informed Guess; IR: Individual Registration; OG: Other Guess. Survey Type is followed by an indicator of survey quality, ranked from 1 to 3 (best to worst). Survey Reliability is keyed A-E (best to worst) ³ PFS: Priority for Future Surveys, ranked from 1 to 5 (highest to lowest). Based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of national range accounted for by the site in question, PFS is a measure of the importance and urgency for future population surveys. All areas of unassessed range have a priority of 1. See Introduction for details on how the PFS is derived. African Elephant Status Report 2007 CENTRAL AFRICA | CAMEROON 35 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 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! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! D D D D D D D D D D D D D D !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P!P !P ! !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P O uham Niger Vina Djerem Chad Piedra Nzas NM Babules FR Ejaham FR Djoli Kera FR Yamba Berete FR Fungom FR Mbambe FR Mbam-Djerem NP Río Campo NR Nana- Barya FnR BinderLéré FnR Kamuku GR Sambisa GR Mandelia FnR Kalamaloue NP Bas Chari FnR Chad Nigeria Niger Equatorial Guinea Gabon Cameroon Congo Central African Republic Bata ABUJA Yaloke Garoua Maiduguri Calabar Kano Port Harcourt Enugu Kaduna OyemMbini Ouesso Moundou Berberati Bossangoa YAOUNDE Ngotto Douala Bertoua Bafoussam Ngaoundere Maroua 7°E 7°E 8°E 8°E 9°E 9°E 10°E 10°E 11°E 11°E 12°E 12°E 13°E 13°E 14°E 14°E 15°E 15°E 16°E 16°E 17°E 17°E 18°E 18°E 2°N 2°N 3°N 3°N 4°N 4°N 5°N 5°N 6°N 6°N 7°N 7°N 8°N 8°N 9°N 9°N 10°N 10°N 11°N 11°N 12°N 12°N 13°N 13°N C a m e r o o nC a m e r o o n This map is unprojected. Scale is indicative only. See Appendix IV for protected area abbreviations. Sources: African Elephant Database Digital Chart of the World African Elephant Specialist Group International Boundary Rivers & Lakes !P Towns Protected Areas Input Zones (variable hatching) Elephant Range Known Possible ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Doubtful D Sighting/sign 0 260 520130 km Waza Chad Basin (Chingurmi -Duguma) Gagal-Yapala Bouba Ndjidah Massenya- Mandjafa Babban Rafi Lac Fitri Yankari Marguba Sambisa BenouéFaro Sudanian Area Larmanaye Yoko Cross River (Okwangwo) Korup Bayang-Mbo Mt. Cameroon Yabassi Abong-Mbang Dja Boumba-Bek Nki Lobéké Mongokele Dzanga-Sangha & Dzanga-Ndoki Nouabalé Ndoki Mengame Minkébé Odzala Campo (South) Ma’an 36 CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC | CENTRAL AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 C E N T R A L A F R I C A N R E P U B L I C General Statistics Country area: 622,980 km² Range area (% of country): 73,453 km² (35%) Protected area coverage (% of country): 13% Protected range (% of known and possible range in protected areas): 85% Information Quality Index (IQI): 0.51 CITES Appendix: I Listing Year: 1989 Current Issues Elephant populations in the Central African Republic (CAR) are now largely restricted to protected areas, but the lack of law enforcement, political unrest and porous international borders continue to make poaching, both in forest and savanna areas, the most prominent threat to the conservation of elephants in the country. The eastern part of the Central African Republic has been affected by the influx of refugees from both the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and the Sudan, putting wildlife populations under considerable pressure. Ivory and meat trafficking are known to occur between the Central African Republic and the Democratic Republic of Congo (Turkalo, quest. reply, 2005). Elephant meat is found openly for sale in a number of markets around Bangui, Bangassou and Ngotto. In this last area, which is in the process of being gazetted as a protected area, cases of crop raiding by elephants and other instances of human-elephant conflict are frequently reported (Hakizumwami & Luhunu, 2005). The Dzanga-Sangha Special Reserve and Sangha-Ndoki National Park form part of the Sangha TriNational Park transboundary protected area. The Government of the Central African Republic is planning to sign agreements with its counterparts in Chad and the Democratic Republic of Congo for the creation of additional transboundary protected areas, but the success of these will depend on the availability of sufficient financial support and the capacity to improve law enforcement and monitoring. Range Data Three known elephant populations remain in the country: a savanna elephant (Loxodonta africana africana) population in the north in the Manovo-Gounda - St. Floris and Bamingui-Bangoran reserve complexes; and two forest elephant (Loxodonta africana cyclotis) populations, one in the southeast, north of the town of Bangassou; and another in the southwest, in the area stretching from the Dzanga-Ndoki Special Reserve north into the Ngotto Forest. Much of the north and east of the Central African Republic was believed to be elephant range until relatively recently, but it is now thought that poaching has virtually wiped out elephant populations in the area (T. Sánchez Ariño, pers. comm., 2004). As a result, most of the areas outside the reserve complexes of Manovo-Gounda - St Floris and Bamingui-Bangoran have been categorized as DOUBTFUL range. A small patch of range near the town of Yaloke has also been categorized as DOUBTFUL range (T. Sánchez Ariño, pers. comm., 2004; Turkalo, quest. reply, 2005). There are reports that a population remains around the town of Bria in the east of the country (Boulet, cited in Hakizumwami & Luhunu, 2005), but this could not be confirmed. African Elephant Status Report 2007 CENTRAL AFRICA | CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC 37 SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEData Category DEFINITE SUMMARY TOTALS FOR CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC 0820820109Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts 02168690Other Dung Counts 500000Other Guesses 109 1,689 1,036 500TOTALS 2006 TOTALS 2002 2,977 1,600 2,420 390 INTERPRETATION OF CHANGES IN ESTIMATES FROM PREVIOUS REPORT SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEDEFINITECause of Change Different Technique -2,868 +1,686 -264 -390 New Guess 0 -1,597 -1,120 +500 TOTAL CHANGE -2,868 +89 -1,384 +110 AREA OF RANGE COVERED BY EACH DATA CATEGORY (km²) 53,378 4,234 11,976 3,865 73,453 53,378 4,234 11,976 3,865 73,453TOTAL Unassessed Range Other Guesses Other Dung Counts Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts Total RangeKnown RangeData Category 38 CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC | CENTRAL AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 AREA (km²) INPUT ZONE ESTIMATE 95% C.L. SOURCE NUMBER OF ELEPHANTS CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC: ELEPHANT ESTIMATES LAT.LON. MAP LOCATION TYPE RELIAB. SURVEY DETAILS² YEAR CAUSE OF CHANGE¹ PFS³ 807 37,200Bamingui-Bangoran National Park & Environs 2005 830 Renaud et al., 2005BAS2 20.0 E 8.0 NDT 1 500* 12,011Bangassou Forest Reserve 2004 500 Blake, 2005EOG3 23.3 E 5.2 NNG 1 216 2,554Dzanga-Sangha & Dzanga-Ndoki National Parks 2005 869 Blake, 2005CDC1 16.2 E 2.9 NDT 2 146 37,200Manovo Gounda - St Floris National Park 2005 99 Renaud et al., 2005BAS2 21.6 E 9.1 NDT 1 * Range of informed guess ¹ Key to Causes of Change: DA: Different Area; DD: Data Degraded; DT: Different Technique; NA: New Analysis; NG: New Guess; NP: New population; PL: Population Lost; RS: Repeat Survey (RS´ denotes a repeat survey that is not statistically comparable for reasons such as different season); –––: No Change ² Key to Survey Types: AS: Aerial Sample Count; AT: Aerial Total Count; DC: Dung Count; GD: Genetic Dung Count; GS: Ground Sample Count; GT: Ground Total Count; IG: Informed Guess; IR: Individual Registration; OG: Other Guess. Survey Type is followed by an indicator of survey quality, ranked from 1 to 3 (best to worst). Survey Reliability is keyed A-E (best to worst) ³ PFS: Priority for Future Surveys, ranked from 1 to 5 (highest to lowest). Based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of national range accounted for by the site in question, PFS is a measure of the importance and urgency for future population surveys. All areas of unassessed range have a priority of 1. See Introduction for details on how the PFS is derived. African Elephant Status Report 2007 CENTRAL AFRICA | CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC 39 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 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! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 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! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! D D D D D D D D D !P !P !P !P!P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P Congo Ouham Olou Vina Lomami Uele Chad Rubi-Tele HZ Djoli Kera FR Yamba Berete FR Numatina GR Bili-Uere HR Bomu SNR Zemongo FnR Nana- Barya FnR Avakaba PrP OandjiaVakaga FnR Radom NP BinderLéré FnR Andre Felix NP Yata- Ngaya FnR Aouk- Aoukale FnR Bahr Salamat FnR Abou Telfane FnR Bas Chari FnR Rest of Gabon Lac Telé Nouabalé- Ndoki Siniaka- Minia Gagal- Yapala Larmanaye Koloudia- Doumdoum Lac Fitri Massenya- Mandjafa Mongokele Lobéké Djouah - Bélinga Manovo Gounda - St Floris Bamingui- Bangoran Zakouma Boumba- Bek Dembo Maiko Odzala - Kokoua Nki Dzanga-Sangha & Dzanga-Ndoki Bangassou Bouba Ndjidah Sudanian Area Waza Chad Basin (Chingurmi- Duguma) Chad Sudan Cameroon Congo Central African Republic Democratic Republic of Congo Yaloke Kisangani Libenge Ouesso Moundou Sarh NDJAMENA Ati Berberati BANGUI Bangassou Bossangoa Bria Ndele Ngotto Maroua 15°E 15°E 16°E 16°E 17°E 17°E 18°E 18°E 19°E 19°E 20°E 20°E 21°E 21°E 22°E 22°E 23°E 23°E 24°E 24°E 25°E 25°E 26°E 26°E 27°E 27°E 0° 0° 1°N 1°N 2°N 2°N 3°N 3°N 4°N 4°N 5°N 5°N 6°N 6°N 7°N 7°N 8°N 8°N 9°N 9°N 10°N 10°N 11°N 11°N 12°N 12°N 13°N 13°N C e n t r a l A f r i c a n R e p u b l i cC e n t r a l A f r i c a n R e p u b l i c This map is unprojected. Scale is indicative only. See Appendix IV for protected area abbreviations. Sources: African Elephant Database Digital Chart of the World African Elephant Specialist Group International Boundary Rivers & Lakes !P Towns Protected Areas Input Zones (variable hatching) Elephant Range Known Possible ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Doubtful D Sighting/sign 0 330 660165 km 40 CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC | CENTRAL AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 It is reported that around 100 elephants are occasionally seen in the northwest, close to the borders with Cameroon and Chad (Oyele, cited in Hakizumwami & Luhunu, 2005), and two crosses are shown on the map to reflect this. Population Data All known elephant populations in the Central African Republic have been surveyed since 2004 as part of the CITES MIKE programme. Estimates from an aerial sample count conducted in the Manovo-Gounda - St. Floris (830 ± 807) and Bamingui-Bangoran (99 ± 146) reserve complexes (Renaud et al., 2005) have been used to replace INFORMED GUESSES of 300 and 1,000 respectively (R.G. Ruggiero, pers. comm., 2003). A dung count conducted in the Dzanga-Sangha Special Reserve and Dzanga-Ndoki National Park returned an estimate of 869 ± 216 (Blake, 2005). Although this is considerably lower than the previous estimate of nearly 3,000, which was an INFORMED GUESS based on an individual registration study (A.K. Turkalo, pers. comm., 2003), the new estimate has to be interpreted in the context of the larger population of which Dzanga-Sangha’s elephants are part. This population stretches across the border to Congo, where another dung count in Nouabalé-Ndoki National Park returned an estimate of 3,032 ± 755 (Blake, 2005). The combined estimate for both survey zones is actually higher than the combined estimate in the previous report. A dung survey was planned for the Bangassou Forest Reserve, but the low number of dung-piles (7) detected in the pilot phase drove the surveyors to conclude that the line transect method would not yield a reliable estimate for this site, and thus to cancel the planned survey (Blake, 2005). The survey team leader nevertheless guessed the Bangassou population to be between 500 and 1,000 elephants, and this replaces an estimate of 1,600 ± 1,200 from a 1996 dung count (Kpanou et al., 1998). Any comparison between the two estimates would, however, be meaningless, as the later estimate is only a guess. Only 5% of remaining range in the Central African Republic remains unsurveyed, largely as a result of the categorization of a large portion of formerly POSSIBLE range as DOUBTFUL range. Estimates from systematic surveys are now available for over 72% of remaining elephant range. As a result of better information and a more systematic knowledge of the transboundary population in the southwest of the country, estimates in the DEFINITE and POSSIBLE categories have decreased substantially with respect to the last report, whereas those in the PROBABLE and SPECULATIVE categories have increased marginally. Cross-border Movements Elephants in Dzanga-Sangha are part of a single population that extends across the border with Congo into the Nouabalé-Ndoki National Park (F.G. Maisels, pers. comm., 2003). Elephants may also move sporadically across the Sangha River into Lobéké National Park in Cameroon. The northeastern part of the Ngotto Forest is believed to be a corridor for elephants moving between Congo and the Central African Republic, as they are only seen there seasonally (Brugière et al., 2005). Elephants used to move to Sudan across the eastern border (J. Garang, pers. comm., 2002), but this cannot be confirmed at present, as there is uncertainty as to the current presence of elephants on either side of the border. Similarly, it is not known whether elephants continue to move across the northern border to Chad as they used to (Dejace, 1996; Dejace, 1999), or from Bangassou south into the Democratic Republic of Congo. African Elephant Status Report 2007 CENTRAL AFRICA | CHAD 41 C H A D General Statistics Country area: 1,284,000 km² Range area (% of country): 149,443 km² (21%) Protected area coverage (% of country): 9% Protected range (% of known and possible range in protected areas): 16% Information Quality Index (IQI): 0.15 CITES Appendix: I Listing Year: 1989 Current Issues Desertification and drought are believed to be among the chief threats facing elephant populations in Chad, as the southward advance of the desert increasingly puts elephants in direct competition with people. The net result of this is increased incidence of human-elephant conflict, poaching, the disruption of elephant migration corridors and consequent fragmentation of elephant habitat (Hakizumwami & Luhunu, 2005; Malachie & Lassou, 2002). The African Parks Foundation may be taking over, as from 2007, the management of Zakouma National Park, which holds Chad’s largest elephant population (African Parks Foundation, 2006a). In mid-2006 the illegal killing of 100 elephants outside Zakouma National Park was reported and widely publicized in the media, but it is not known whether this was an isolated incident or part of a wider problem. Within the framework of the Yaoundé Declaration, Chad plans to establish a transboundary conservation area linking Zakouma National Park with the Bamingi-Bangoran and Manovo-Gounda - St. Floris reserve complexes in the northern Central African Republic, all of which hold important elephant populations in their respective countries (but see under Cross-Border Movements below). Range Data Only savanna elephants (Loxodonta africana africana) occur in Chad, distributed in pockets of Sudanian woodland in the extreme south, as well as in the drier Sahelian Acacia wooded grasslands further north. Herds may move seasonally between these two zones in search of surface water (Depierre, 1967), but the largest population is concentrated in and around Zakouma National Park. No elephants are found in the Saharan northern half of the country. The range map for Chad has been considerably revised thanks to information provided by Sánchez Ariño (2004), as well as to data from the Landscan 2002 human population density data set (ORNL/GIST, 2002), resulting in the categorization of much of the south as DOUBTFUL range (see Introduction section for rationale). A number of crosses have been added to the map in the southwest, where evidence of elephant presence was reported by consultants working for an oil pipeline project (Johnson, 1999). Population Data A total aerial count of Zakouma National Park conducted in 2005 returned an estimate of 3,885 (Malachie et al., 2005). Another aerial survey was conducted in August 2006, but the survey report could not be obtained in time for this report. Hence the result of the 2005 survey has been used to replace an estimate of 1,989 from an aerial total count conducted in 2000 (Planton, 2000). The difference between the two estimates can be explained by the fact that the 2000 survey was conducted at the end of the dry season, when elephants begin to disperse beyond the park boundaries. The 2005 survey, on the other hand, was conducted at the height of the dry season, when elephant density is highest in the park, and when leaf cover is at its lowest. Thus the 2005 figure is believed to be a more accurate estimate of the elephant population 42 CHAD | CENTRAL AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 in Zakouma. The resulting increase in the number of elephants under the DEFINITE category is therefore likely to reflect better information, rather than an increase in the elephant population. The rest of the estimates featured on the table have been retained unchanged from the previous report. Despite the categorization of large areas of formerly POSSIBLE range as DOUBTFUL range, nearly threequarters of estimated range area in Chad remain unsurveyed. Although these unsurveyed areas are unlikely to contain large numbers of elephants, the estimates reported here cannot be considered a national estimate. Cross-border Movements Between 300 and 400 elephants migrate between Lake Chad and northern Cameroon, but spend most of their time in the latter (Tchamba et al., 1997). It is thought that these elephants come into conflict with human communities on their migration between the two countries. Dejace (1996) also believed that elephants move between Chad and the Central African Republic, but this has not been verified. African Elephant Status Report 2007 CENTRAL AFRICA | CHAD 43 SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEData Category DEFINITE SUMMARY TOTALS FOR CHAD 0003,885Aerial or Ground Total Counts 5502,00000Informed Guesses 3,885 0 2,000 550TOTALS 2006 TOTALS 2002 1,989 0 2,000 550 INTERPRETATION OF CHANGES IN ESTIMATES FROM PREVIOUS REPORT SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEDEFINITECause of Change Repeat Survey +1,896 0 0 0 TOTAL CHANGE +1,896 0 0 0 AREA OF RANGE COVERED BY EACH DATA CATEGORY (km²) 3,151 35,048 63,045 101,244 0 12 48,187 48,200 3,151 35,061 111,232 149,443TOTAL Unassessed Range Informed Guesses Aerial or Ground Total Counts Total RangePossible RangeKnown RangeData Category 44 CHAD | CENTRAL AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 AREA (km²) INPUT ZONE ESTIMATE 95% C.L. SOURCE NUMBER OF ELEPHANTS CHAD: ELEPHANT ESTIMATES LAT.LON. MAP LOCATION TYPE RELIAB. SURVEY DETAILS² YEAR CAUSE OF CHANGE¹ PFS³ 100* 2,409Dembo Area 2002 600 Malachie & Lassou, 2002DIG3 18.0 E 8.2 N––– 2 100* 4,640Gagal-Yapala Area 2002 400 Malachie & Lassou, 2002DIG3 14.9 E 9.1 N––– 2 50* 2,180Koloudia-Doumdoum Area 2002 50 Malachie & Lassou, 2002DIG3 15.3 E 13.4 N––– 2 100* 11,670Lac Fitri Area 2002 200 Malachie & Lassou, 2002DIG3 17.6 E 12.9 N––– 2 50* 2,180Larmanaye Area 2002 100 Malachie & Lassou, 2002DIG3 15.5 E 8.1 N––– 2 50* 10,864Massenya-Mandjafa Area 2002 150 Malachie & Lassou, 2002DIG3 16.3 E 11.3 N––– 2 100* 4,740Siniaka-Minia Faunal Reserve 2002 500 Malachie & Lassou, 2002DIG3 18.2 E 10.4 N––– 2 2,987Zakouma National Park 2005 3,885 Malachie et al., 2005AAT2 19.7 E 10.8 NRS´ 3 * Range of informed guess ¹ Key to Causes of Change: DA: Different Area; DD: Data Degraded; DT: Different Technique; NA: New Analysis; NG: New Guess; NP: New population; PL: Population Lost; RS: Repeat Survey (RS´ denotes a repeat survey that is not statistically comparable for reasons such as different season); –––: No Change ² Key to Survey Types: AS: Aerial Sample Count; AT: Aerial Total Count; DC: Dung Count; GD: Genetic Dung Count; GS: Ground Sample Count; GT: Ground Total Count; IG: Informed Guess; IR: Individual Registration; OG: Other Guess. Survey Type is followed by an indicator of survey quality, ranked from 1 to 3 (best to worst). Survey Reliability is keyed A-E (best to worst) ³ PFS: Priority for Future Surveys, ranked from 1 to 5 (highest to lowest). Based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of national range accounted for by the site in question, PFS is a measure of the importance and urgency for future population surveys. All areas of unassessed range have a priority of 1. See Introduction for details on how the PFS is derived. African Elephant Status Report 2007 CENTRAL AFRICA | CHAD 45 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! D D D D D D D D D !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P Olou Vina O uham Chad Djoli Kera FR Yamba Berete FR Zemongo FnR Nana- Barya FnR Avakaba PrP OandjiaVakaga FnR Radom NP BinderLéré FnR Andre Felix NP Yata- Ngaya FnR Aouk- Aoukale FnR Bahr Salamat FnR Sambisa GR Abou Telfane FnR Bas Chari FnR Marguba Siniaka-Minia Gagal-Yapala Larmanaye Koloudia- Doumdoum Lac Fitri Massenya- Mandjafa Manovo Gounda - St Floris Bamingui- Bangoran Zakouma Dembo Gashaka-Gumti Faro Benoué Kambari Bouba NdjidahSudanian Area Yankari WazaSambisa Chad Basin (Chingurmi- Duguma) Chad Sudan Nigeria Niger Libya Egypt Algeria Cameroon Central African Republic Garoua Maiduguri Moundou Sarh NDJAMENA Ati Abeche Ndele Ngaoundere Maroua 11°E 11°E 12°E 12°E 13°E 13°E 14°E 14°E 15°E 15°E 16°E 16°E 17°E 17°E 18°E 18°E 19°E 19°E 20°E 20°E 21°E 21°E 22°E 22°E 23°E 23°E 24°E 24°E 25°E 25°E 26°E 26°E 8°N 8°N 9°N 9°N 10°N 10°N 11°N 11°N 12°N 12°N 13°N 13°N 14°N 14°N 15°N 15°N 16°N 16°N 17°N 17°N 18°N 18°N 19°N 19°N 20°N 20°N 21°N 21°N 22°N 22°N 23°N 23°N C h a dC h a d This map is unprojected. Scale is indicative only. See Appendix IV for protected area abbreviations. Sources: African Elephant Database Digital Chart of the World African Elephant Specialist Group International Boundary Rivers & Lakes !P Towns Protected Areas Input Zones (variable hatching) Elephant Range Known Possible ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Doubtful D Sighting/sign 0 390 780195 km 46 CONGO | CENTRAL AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 C O N G O General Statistics Country area: 342,000 km² Range area (% of country): 135,918 km² (73%) Protected area coverage (% of country): 10% Protected range (% of known and possible range in protected areas): 20% Information Quality Index (IQI): 0.18 CITES Appendix: I Listing Year: 1989 Current Issues Poaching of elephants for ivory and meat, fuelled by the proliferation of firearms, along with the commercial exploitation of timber and petroleum are believed to be the most important threats facing elephants in Congo. These problems are aggravated by lack of resources and weak institutional capacity to enforce regulations. Human-elephant conflict, particularly in the form of crop raids, is reported to be a problem, particularly in the areas around Odzala, Conkouati and Nouabalé-Ndoki National Parks (Hakizumwami & Luhunu, 2005). Congo is a signatory of a number of regional agreements that aim to promote the conservation of the rainforest, to harmonize logging regulations and to curb illegal logging. These include the Yaoundé Declaration and the Brazzaville Process. In addition, Congo participates in two transboundary conservation initiatives with neighbouring countries. The Sangha Tri-National Park, which includes Nouabalé-Ndoki National Park (Congo), Lobéké National Park (Cameroon) and the Dzanga-Ndoki National Park and Dzanga-Sangha Special Reserve (Central African Republic), was the first of these to be established, and has resulted in a number of joint anti-poaching operations. In addition, Congo has begun collaboration with Cameroon and Gabon for the creation of a transboundary protected area that includes Odzala National Park in Congo, Minkébé National Park in Gabon and Dja Faunal Reserve and Nki and Boumba-Bek National Parks in Cameroon. Range Data Most of Congo’s elephant range lies in the northern forested area, where only forest elephants (Loxodonta africana cyclotis) are believed to occur. For this report, much of centre and south of the country has been categorized as DOUBTFUL range, based on information provided by Sánchez Ariño (2004). The area of KNOWN range in and around Conkouati-Douli National Park has been extended based on data provided by Vanleeuwe (2006). Population Data A dung count of Odzala-Kokoua National Park conducted in 2005 gave an estimate of 13,545 elephants with an asymmetric confidence interval of 10,836 to 17,608 (Wildlife Conservation Society, 2006). This replaces an estimate of 18,222 from a dung count conducted in 2000 (Hart & Beyers, 2002). In spite of the area covered in the 2006 survey being 73% larger, the estimate is lower by 4,677 elephants. This difference, however, is not statistically significant. An estimate of 3,032 ± 755 from a dung count of Nouabalé Ndoki National Park and an adjacent logging concession, conducted in 2003 (Blake, 2005), replaces a previous INFORMED GUESS of 431 (Maisels, 2002b). The 2003 estimate must be interpreted in conjunction with that for the Dzanga-Sangha and Dzanga-Ndoki National Parks in the Central African Republic which, together with Nouabalé-Ndoki, constitute a single transboundary population estimated at around 3,400 elephants (Blake, 2005). African Elephant Status Report 2007 CENTRAL AFRICA | CONGO 47 SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEData Category DEFINITE SUMMARY TOTALS FOR CONGO 0370370402Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts 03,33816,5770Other Dung Counts 72931600Informed Guesses 402 16,947 4,024 729TOTALS 2006 TOTALS 2002 431 18,222 6,572 2,300 INTERPRETATION OF CHANGES IN ESTIMATES FROM PREVIOUS REPORT SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEDEFINITECause of Change New Population 0 0 +429 +729 Different Technique -29 +3,404 +170 -2,300 Different Area 0 -4,679 -3,146 0 TOTAL CHANGE -29 -1,275 -2,548 -1,571 AREA OF RANGE COVERED BY EACH DATA CATEGORY (km²) 2,592 21,952 5,733 87,640 117,918 345 0 121 17,535 18,001 2,937 21,952 5,854 105,176 135,918TOTAL Unassessed Range Informed Guesses Other Dung Counts Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts Total RangePossible RangeKnown RangeData Category 48 CONGO | CENTRAL AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 AREA (km²) INPUT ZONE ESTIMATE 95% C.L. SOURCE NUMBER OF ELEPHANTS CONGO: ELEPHANT ESTIMATES LAT.LON. MAP LOCATION TYPE RELIAB. SURVEY DETAILS² YEAR CAUSE OF CHANGE¹ PFS³ 370 3,850Conkouati National Park 2005 772 Vanleeuwe, 2006BDC2 11.5 E 3.9 SDT 2 729* 4,400Lac Telé Community Reserve 2004 316 Iyenguet et al., 2007DDC3 17.3 E 1.1 NNP 2 755 6,660Nouabalé-Ndoki National Park 2003 3,032 Blake, 2005CDC2 16.7 E 2.7 NDT 2 3,252 13,545Odzala - Kokoua National Park 2005 13,545 Wildlife Conservation Society, 2006 CDC2 14.9 E 1.0 NDA 2 * Range of informed guess ¹ Key to Causes of Change: DA: Different Area; DD: Data Degraded; DT: Different Technique; NA: New Analysis; NG: New Guess; NP: New population; PL: Population Lost; RS: Repeat Survey (RS´ denotes a repeat survey that is not statistically comparable for reasons such as different season); –––: No Change ² Key to Survey Types: AS: Aerial Sample Count; AT: Aerial Total Count; DC: Dung Count; GD: Genetic Dung Count; GS: Ground Sample Count; GT: Ground Total Count; IG: Informed Guess; IR: Individual Registration; OG: Other Guess. Survey Type is followed by an indicator of survey quality, ranked from 1 to 3 (best to worst). Survey Reliability is keyed A-E (best to worst) ³ PFS: Priority for Future Surveys, ranked from 1 to 5 (highest to lowest). Based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of national range accounted for by the site in question, PFS is a measure of the importance and urgency for future population surveys. All areas of unassessed range have a priority of 1. See Introduction for details on how the PFS is derived. African Elephant Status Report 2007 CENTRAL AFRICA | CONGO 49 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 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! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P Congo L.Mai- Ndombe Piedra Nzas NM Altos de Nsork NP Dimonika BR Waka NP Pleateaux Batéké NP Biringou NP Monte Temelón NR Piedra Bere NM Mont Fouari FnR Mont Mavoumbou HR Nyanga Nord FnR Nyanga Sud FnR Lefini FnR Rest of Gabon Lac Telé Ivindo Minkébé Gamba Monts de Cristal Mengame Conkouati Nouabalé- Ndoki Lopé Mongokele Lobéké Djouah - Bélinga Boumba- Bek Mwagne Odzala - Kokoua Nki Dzanga-Sangha & Dzanga-Ndoki Dja Equatorial Guinea Gabon Cameroon Congo Central African Republic Democratic Republic of Congo Angola BRAZZAVILLE Tchibanga Franceville Makokou Oyem KINSHASA Libenge Pointe-Noire Sibiti Djambala Ouesso YAOUNDE 11°E 11°E 12°E 12°E 13°E 13°E 14°E 14°E 15°E 15°E 16°E 16°E 17°E 17°E 18°E 18°E 19°E 19°E 5°S 5°S 4°S 4°S 3°S 3°S 2°S 2°S 1°S 1°S 0° 0° 1°N 1°N 2°N 2°N 3°N 3°N C o n g oC o n g o This map is unprojected. Scale is indicative only. See Appendix IV for protected area abbreviations. Sources: African Elephant Database Digital Chart of the World African Elephant Specialist Group International Boundary Rivers & Lakes !P Towns Protected Areas Input Zones (variable hatching) Elephant Range Known Possible ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Doubtful D Sighting/sign 0 210 420105 km 50 CONGO | CENTRAL AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 A number of dung counts have been conducted in Conkouati-Douli National Park in recent years. The result of 772 ± 370 from the most recent of these surveys (Vanleeuwe, 2006) replaces an INFORMED GUESS of 1,000 by Maisels (2003). The Lac Telé Community Reserve was surveyed in 2003 and 2004 (Iyenguet et al., 2007; Rainey, 2004). The 2003 survey was conducted when most of the park was flooded and it was difficult to detect elephant dung. The 2004 survey, conducted in the dry season, estimated 316 elephants, with an asymmetric 95% confidence interval of 98 to 1,045 (Iyenguet et al., 2007). This estimate has been categorized as an INFORMED GUESS, as the low number of dung-piles encountered makes it unreliable. Elephant estimates have declined across all four categories in Congo as a result of changes in the quality and coverage of data. These declines are therefore not indicative of changes in actual elephant numbers, but rather the result of better information. However, nearly 80% of estimated elephant range in Congo remains unsurveyed, and it is therefore impossible to ascertain changes in elephant numbers at the national level, as significant numbers of elephants may be found in the unsurveyed areas. Cross-border Movements Elephants are known to move between Nouabalé-Ndoki in northern Congo and Dzanga-Sangha in the Central African Republic, and these elephants form a single transboundary population (A.K. Turkalo, pers. comm., 2003; Maisels, 2001). Cross-border movements are also likely to occur between Congo and Gabon to the west and Cameroon to the north. However, a radio-collaring project in Nki National Park in Cameroon has yet to find evidence of transboundary movement into Congo. African Elephant Status Report 2007 CENTRAL AFRICA | DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO 51 D E M O C R A T I C R E P U B L I C O F C O N G O General Statistics Country area: 2,345,410 km² Range area (% of country): 263,700 km² (39%) Protected area coverage (% of country): 6% Protected range (% of known and possible range in protected areas): 53% Information Quality Index (IQI): 0.18 CITES Appendix: I Listing Year: 1989 Current Issues Poaching for ivory and meat remains the most important threat to elephant populations in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The situation is particularly serious in the east, where outbursts of fighting have continued even after the signing of a peace deal in 2003. Large amounts of ivory originating from the Democratic Republic of Congo have been confiscated in recent years (Hakizumwami & Luhunu, 2005), with a total of 17 tonnes of ivory estimated to have been moved from the Okapi Faunal Reserve alone in the last six months of 2004 (Amboya Apobo, 2004). Most of the ivory is destined for consumption overseas and is moved through neighbouring countries, particularly Uganda, the Sudan and Angola (Milliken et al., 2006). The once significant internal ivory market (Martin & Stiles, 2000) seems to have declined in relative importance in recent years. A survey of a Kinshasa market in 2005, which is supplied mainly from elephant populations in central Democratic Republic of Congo, revealed relatively low levels of activity in comparison to the exports from the east of the country (Mubalama & Hart, in press). Following widespread reports of incursions of Sudanese poachers into Garamba, the management of the park and its surrounding hunting reserves was taken over by the African Parks Foundation in 2005. Although surveys and anti-poaching operations in Garamba and its environs commenced soon after the new management took over, compliance with the CITES MIKE programme is being implemented more slowly. Human-elephant conflict is reported to be a problem particularly around Upemba and Virunga National Parks, as well as in the Ituri forest, where it intensified as elephants retreated from remote areas where they were being hunted to areas closer to settlements. Range Data The Democratic Republic of Congo is transversed by an equatorial forest belt surrounded by savanna woodlands in the northeast and south of the country. Forest elephants (Loxodonta africana cyclotis) occur in the north and central parts, with savanna elephants (Loxodonta africana africana) and forest-savanna hybrids in the north and the east. The range map has been drastically altered for this report, with the re-categorization of most of the country’s POSSIBLE range into DOUBTFUL range based on information from Hart (2006) and the Landscan 2002 human population density data set (ORNL/GIST, 2002; see Introduction section for details). Although nearly 650,000 km² of former POSSIBLE range have been converted into DOUBTFUL range, this is not necessarily the result of a recent reduction in actual extent of elephant range, but rather a better reflection of the uncertainty associated with elephant distribution in the Democratic Republic of Congo. A reconnaissance conducted in the northern and southern parts of the lowland sector of Kahuzi Biega 52 DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO | CENTRAL AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 National Park in 2005 found no evidence of elephant presence, and these areas have also been categorized as DOUBTFUL range (Liengola, 2006). Range in the northern and central sectors of Garamba National Park has been removed, as elephants have not been seen there for many years (Hillman Smith et al., 2003a). The southern sector of the park and its surrounding hunting reserves remain as KNOWN range. An area in the upper Tshuapa basin to the to the east of Salonga National Park, and a patch in the Luamba area have been categorized as KNOWN range (Hart, 2006; Mubalama, quest. reply, 2006; T. Sánchez Ariño, pers. comm., 2004). Population Data The regular survey programme at Garamba National Park conducted two surveys since the last report, one in May 2003, which returned an estimate of 6,948 ± 3,910 (Hillman Smith et al., 2003a), and another in April 2004 (Hillman Smith et al., 2006). The estimate of 6,354 ± 3,975 from this latter survey is featured in this report, and replaces a previous estimate of 5,983 ± 2,320 from a methodologically comparable survey conducted in 2002. Following widespread reports of heavy poaching in Garamba since 2003 (Hillman Smith et al., 2003b), a reconnaissance survey in August 2005 counted 1,202 elephants in the southern sector of the park (de Merode et al., 2005). Although the reconnaissance was intensive, the possibility that elephants could have moved to surrounding hunting reserves or to the central and northern sectors cannot be ruled out. No evidence of active poaching was detected at the time of the survey. An aerial total count of Garamba’s southern sector and part of the adjacent Domaine de Chasse de Gangala na Bodio was conducted in April 2006, and while the final survey report was not available in time for inclusion in this report, the estimate was 3,800 elephants (Emslie & Lobao Tello, 2006), which is within the confidence interval of the 2004 estimate. The Salonga National Park was systematically surveyed in 2004 as part of the CITES MIKE programme. This survey, which only covered two-thirds of the park, returned an estimate of 1,186 with an asymmetric 95% confidence interval of 666 to 2,114 (Blake, 2005). Hart (2006) estimates that 4,000 elephants occur in the Salonga ecosystem. The approximate difference of 2,800 between this and the MIKE survey estimate has been entered in the category of OTHER GUESSES for the unsurveyed areas inside and outside the park. These two estimates replace a previous INFORMED GUESS of 12,500 for the entire ecosystem (Hart, 2003). Another survey of Salonga in 2005 explored areas not covered in the MIKE survey, but no attempt was made to estimate elephant numbers (Hart, 2006). A dung count of the central sector of Okapi Faunal Reserve conducted in 2006 produced an estimate of 2,688 with an asymmetric 95% confidence interval of 1,624 to 4,424 (Grossmann et al., 2006). This replaces an estimate of 3,808 with an asymmetric confidence interval of 2,649 to 5,464 (Thomas et al., 2001). While the two results are not significantly different, it must be noted that the 2000 survey covered a larger area. The central sector of Virunga National Park was the subject of an aerial sample survey in June 2006. An estimate of 348 ± 177 was reported (Kujirakwinja et al., 2006), but the calculation of the estimate excluded a herd of 120 elephants seen in one of the transects, which were subsequently added to the calculated estimate. According to the survey report, this was done to avoid inflating the estimate and variance beyond what the surveyors considered likely for the park. For the present report, the estimate of 348 with an upper range of 177 has been categorized as an INFORMED GUESS, and replaces an older INFORMED GUESS of 486 (Mubalama, 2000). African Elephant Status Report 2007 CENTRAL AFRICA | DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO 53 SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEData Category DEFINITE SUMMARY TOTALS FOR DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO 04,0814,0812,294Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts 01,5163,8740Other Dung Counts 2073,2580153Informed Guesses 4,250000Other Guesses 2,447 7,955 8,855 4,457TOTALS 2006 TOTALS 2002 7,667 2,631 34,996 17,554 INTERPRETATION OF CHANGES IN ESTIMATES FROM PREVIOUS REPORT SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEDEFINITECause of Change Repeat Survey -1,682 +2,123 +1,508 0 New Population 0 0 +37 0 Different Technique 0 +1,430 -10,118 -2,323 Different Area -3,111 +1,748 +94 0 New Guess -403 0 -8,505 -5,920 New Analysis -23 +23 -9,157 -4,854 TOTAL CHANGE -5,220 +5,324 -26,141 -13,097 AREA OF RANGE COVERED BY EACH DATA CATEGORY (km²) 1,402 29,959 10,665 59,610 121,100 222,736 1,455 0 949 1,290 37,269 40,964 2,857 29,959 11,614 60,900 158,369 263,700TOTAL Unassessed Range Other Guesses Informed Guesses Other Dung Counts Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts Total RangePossible RangeKnown RangeData Category 54 DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO | CENTRAL AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 AREA (km²) INPUT ZONE ESTIMATE 95% C.L. SOURCE NUMBER OF ELEPHANTS DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO: ELEPHANT ESTIMATES LAT.LON. MAP LOCATION TYPE RELIAB. SURVEY DETAILS² YEAR CAUSE OF CHANGE¹ PFS³ 5,232Bushimae 1987 120 Won wa Musiti, quest. reply, 1991 EIG3 23.0 E 7.4 S––– 2 450* 9,671Gangala-na-Bodio 2002 1,000 Hart, 2003EOG3 29.3 E 3.9 NNA 2 4,081 5,525Garamba National Park 2004 6,354 Hillman Smith et al., 2006BAS3 29.5 E 4.2 NRS 2 30* 154Kahuzi-Biega (Upland) National Park 2005 20 Hart, 2006DIG3 28.7 E 2.2 SNG 4 15* 9,469Luama Hunting Zone 2002 110 Mubalama, quest. reply, 2006EOG3 28.0 E 4.5 SNG 2 10,830Maiko National Park 2005 3,000 Hart, 2006DIG3 27.6 E 0.4 SNG 2 1,348 5,600Okapi (Central) Faunal Reserve 2006 2,688 Grossmann et al., 2006CDC3 28.5 E 1.5 NDA 2 692 22,100Salonga National Park 2004 1,186 Blake, 2005CDC3 21.2 E 2.1 SDT 2 25,140Salonga (Outside) 2006 2,800 Hart, 2006EOG3 21.1 E 2.5 SNG 2 11,730Upemba National Park 2005 145 Mubalama, quest. reply, 2006EOG3 26.6 E 9.0 SNG 2 177* 2,597Virunga (Central) National Park Sector 2006 348 Kujirakwinja et al., 2006DAS2 29.4 E 0.4 SNG 3 256Virunga (Mikeno) National Park 2003 43 Gray, quest. reply, 2005DIG3 29.5 E 1.4 SNP 4 39 1,550Virunga (North) National Park Sector 2003 21 Hillman Smith et al., 2003cBAS2 29.8 E 0.6 NNA 3 1,290Virunga (South) National Park Sector 2002 75 L.K. Mubalama, pers. comm., 2003 EOG3 29.2 E 1.4 S––– 3 * Range of informed guess ¹ Key to Causes of Change: DA: Different Area; DD: Data Degraded; DT: Different Technique; NA: New Analysis; NG: New Guess; NP: New population; PL: Population Lost; RS: Repeat Survey (RS´ denotes a repeat survey that is not statistically comparable for reasons such as different season); –––: No Change ² Key to Survey Types: AS: Aerial Sample Count; AT: Aerial Total Count; DC: Dung Count; GD: Genetic Dung Count; GS: Ground Sample Count; GT: Ground Total Count; IG: Informed Guess; IR: Individual Registration; OG: Other Guess. Survey Type is followed by an indicator of survey quality, ranked from 1 to 3 (best to worst). Survey Reliability is keyed A-E (best to worst) ³ PFS: Priority for Future Surveys, ranked from 1 to 5 (highest to lowest). Based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of national range accounted for by the site in question, PFS is a measure of the importance and urgency for future population surveys. All areas of unassessed range have a priority of 1. See Introduction for details on how the PFS is derived. African Elephant Status Report 2007 CENTRAL AFRICA | DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO 55 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 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D D DDD D D D D D D D D D D D D !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P Congo Lomam i Cuango Cassai Uele Zambeze Cubango Cuando AlbertNile L.Tanganyka L.Victoria L.A lbe rt L.Mai- Ndombe Rubi-Tele HZ Bire Kpatuos GR Mbarizunga GR Dimonika BR Chimalavera RNP Pleateaux Batéké NP West Zambezi GMA Chizera GMA Lukwakwa GMA Chibwika-Ntambu GMA Bangweulu GMA Biringou NP Bili-Uere HR MbamDjerem NP Mahale Mountains NP Lefini FnR Bengangai GRBomu SNR Southern NP Zemongo FnR Sagara- Nyamagoma Salonga (Outside) Salonga Rest of Gabon Lac Telé Ivindo Luama Yoko Kafue Minkébé Gangala- na-Bodio Virunga (North) Quiçama Kahuzi- Biega (Upland) Upemba Nouabalé-Ndoki Cáua Camp Nyampala Kasonso- Busanga Lunga- Luswishi West Lunga Kasanka Luangwa Lavushi Manda Kafinde Isangano Nsumbu Moyowosi- Kigosi Okapi (Central) Lopé Rwenzori Mgahinga Virunga (Mikeno) Lobéké Queen Elizabeth Mweru wa Ntipa Boumba-Bek Mwagne Bushimae Katavi- Rukwa Virunga (South) Virunga (Central) Volcans Bwindi Maiko Kibale Odzala - Kokoua Nki Dzanga-Sangha & Dzanga-Ndoki Dja Abong-Mbang Garamba Bangassou Zambia Uganda Tanzania Sudan Gabon Cameroon Congo Central African Republic Democratic Republic of Congo Burundi Angola Huambo Benguela Malange LUANDA Cabinda Ndola Malengue Luena BRAZZAVILLE Juba Nyanza KIGALI Yaloke Arua Franceville Makokou Lubumbashi KINSHASA Goma Kisangani Libenge Pointe- Noire Sibiti Djambala Ouesso Berberati BANGUI Bangassou Ngotto Yoko Bertoua 12°E 12°E 13°E 13°E 14°E 14°E 15°E 15°E 16°E 16°E 17°E 17°E 18°E 18°E 19°E 19°E 20°E 20°E 21°E 21°E 22°E 22°E 23°E 23°E 24°E 24°E 25°E 25°E 26°E 26°E 27°E 27°E 28°E 28°E 29°E 29°E 30°E 30°E 31°E 31°E 14°S 14°S 13°S 13°S 12°S 12°S 11°S 11°S 10°S 10°S 9°S 9°S 8°S 8°S 7°S 7°S 6°S 6°S 5°S 5°S 4°S 4°S 3°S 3°S 2°S 2°S 1°S 1°S 0° 0° 1°N 1°N 2°N 2°N 3°N 3°N 4°N 4°N 5°N 5°N 6°N 6°N D e m o c r a t i c R e p u b l i c o f C o n g oD e m o c r a t i c R e p u b l i c o f C o n g o This map is unprojected. Scale is indicative only. See Appendix IV for protected area abbreviations. Sources: African Elephant Database Digital Chart of the World African Elephant Specialist Group International Boundary Rivers & Lakes !P Towns Protected Areas Input Zones (variable hatching) Elephant Range Known Possible ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Doubtful D Sighting/sign 0 470 940235 km 56 DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO | CENTRAL AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 The estimate of 21 shown for Virunga North (Hillman Smith et al., 2003c) has been retained from the previous report, where it appeared as an INFORMED GUESS. As the survey report has since become available, the estimate is now correctly categorized as a category 2 aerial sample count. The estimate for Virunga South has been retained unchanged from the previous report. A reconnaissance of the northeastern sector of Maiko National Park (Amsini et al., 2005) found elephant densities to be comparable to those recorded in a dung count more than a decade earlier (Hart & Sikubwabo Kiyengo, 1993). A later survey of the southern sector, however, found comparatively few signs of elephant presence (Amsini et al., 2006). While neither of these surveys attempted to produce estimates of abundance, Hart (2006) believes the number of elephants to stand at around 3,000 in Maiko. This estimate has been entered as an INFORMED GUESS and replaces an estimate of 6,500 from a dung count conducted in 1992 (Hart & Sikubwabo Kiyengo, 1993). New guesses for the Luama area and the and Upemba National Park have been provided by Mubalama (2006), replacing guesses by Hart (2003). Guesses featured in the previous report for Lomami-Lualaba and Wamba-Lopori, as well as for portions of the Kivu, Equateur and Orientale Provinces (Hart, 2003), have been removed in this report, as these areas are no longer thought to be elephant range (Hart, 2006). OTHER GUESSES for Upper Tshuapa and Bili-Uere, also provided by Hart (2003) have been removed, as they were deemed to be unreliable. The considerable decline in the POSSIBLE and SPECULATIVE categories caused by the removal of these estimates should not be interpreted as a recent decline in actual elephant numbers, but rather as the result of better information. The increase in the PROBABLE category resulting from the Salonga and Okapi surveys is matched by a decrease of similar magnitude in the DEFINITE category. These changes are largely due to the lower precision of the 2004 Garamba survey, and to survey estimates obtained using different techniques (Salonga) and different areas (Okapi). Despite the re-categorization of a large proportion of the DRC’s POSSIBLE elephant range into DOUBTFUL range, nearly 30% of remaining range is still only covered by guesses of unknown reliability, and 60% of range remains unassessed. Cross-border Movements Elephants move seasonally between the Virunga National Park and the southern sector of Queen Elizabeth National Park in Uganda (Keigwin, 2001; Mubalama, 2000). Movements may also take place between Virunga’s northern sector and the Toro/Semliki range in western Uganda (F. Michelmore, pers. comm., 1998). Movement between the Bili Uere area and Bangassou Forest in the Central African Republic is also possible, but has not been confirmed. African Elephant Status Report 2007 CENTRAL AFRICA | EQUATORIAL GUINEA 57 E Q U A T O R I A L G U I N E A General Statistics Country area: 28,050 km² Range area (% of country): 15,008 km² (54%) Protected area coverage (% of country): 17% Protected range (% of known and possible range in protected areas): 27% Information Quality Index (IQI): 0.00 CITES Appendix: I Listing Year: 1989 Current Issues Logging and subsistence agriculture are the predominant forms of land use in continental Equatorial Guinea. Elephant hunting and snaring is reported to be widespread, particularly in the dry season, but most elephant meat is consumed locally and does not appear to feature prominently in the bushmeat trade. Crop raiding by elephants is reported to be a problem in some areas, often resulting in retaliatory shooting of elephants, often without the requisite permit from the authorities (Malabo) (Rist, quest. reply, 2005). Despite the recent development of a model for forest concession management, none of the logging concerns in the country is under best practice management or makes any substantial efforts to control illegal hunting. Preliminary management plans have been drafted for Equatorial Guinea’s newly created protected areas, but these remain largely on paper, as the agency mandated with their implementation, the National Institute for Forestry Development (INDEFOR), lacks financial and political support from its parent ministry (CARPE, 2005). An agreement is expected to be signed between Equatorial Guinea and Cameroon, leading to the creation of a transfrontier conservation area encompassing the Río Campo Nature Reserve and the Campo-Ma’an protected areas in Cameroon. Range Data Much of continental Equatorial Guinea is still covered in tropical forest, and is therefore possible elephant habitat. Nevertheless, elephants are thought to be largely absent from the northern half of the territory, where human population densities are higher than in the south. An exception to this is the Río Campo Nature Reserve in the northwest, where an elephant population of unknown size remains. Only forest elephants (Loxodonta africana cyclotis) are believed to occur in the country. The area of KNOWN range in Equatorial Guinea has been considerably expanded to cover the Montes Mitra sector of Monte Alén National Park, as well as an area to the east of it, based on information provided by Rist (2005). Population Data A survey of the remainder of Monte Alén National Park was to be conducted under the auspices of the CITES MIKE programme by 2004, but was postponed for lack of funds (Blake, 2005). As a result, the guess for Monte Alén featured in the previous report has been retained. A dung count of the Montes Mitra extension of Monte Alén National Park, conducted between October 2003 and February 2004, estimated elephant density at 0.55 per km², with an asymmetric 95% confidence interval ranging between 0.37 and 0.81 (Puit & Ghiurghi, 2007). The authors combined this estimated density with data from reconnaissance walks and provided an approximate estimate of 700 elephants in the study area, with a maximum estimate of 1,100. In view of this, as well as of the fact that no confidence limits of elephant numbers were provided, the estimate has been treated as an INFORMED GUESS. The inclusion of the estimate for this previously unsurveyed area has resulted in increases of 700 and 330 in the 58 EQUATORIAL GUINEA | CENTRAL AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 POSSIBLE and SPECULATIVE categories respectively. However, the vast majority (88%) of estimated range in Equatorial Guinea remains unsurveyed. Cross-border Movements Elephants may move between Gabon and southern Equatorial Guinea (L. Arranz, pers. comm., 1995) and possibly between Cameroon’s southern forest range and the Río Campo Forest Reserve in northwest Equatorial Guinea (Bekhuis & Prins, 2003), although more survey work is required to establish whether this is the case. African Elephant Status Report 2007 CENTRAL AFRICA | EQUATORIAL GUINEA 59 SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEData Category DEFINITE SUMMARY TOTALS FOR EQUATORIAL GUINEA 33070000Informed Guesses 300000Other Guesses 0 0 700 630TOTALS 2006 TOTALS 2002 0 0 0 300 INTERPRETATION OF CHANGES IN ESTIMATES FROM PREVIOUS REPORT SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEDEFINITECause of Change New Population 0 0 +700 +330 TOTAL CHANGE 0 0 +700 +330 AREA OF RANGE COVERED BY EACH DATA CATEGORY (km²) 1,084 793 1,715 3,593 0 4 11,411 11,415 1,085 797 13,126 15,008TOTAL Unassessed Range Other Guesses Informed Guesses Total RangePossible RangeKnown RangeData Category 60 EQUATORIAL GUINEA | CENTRAL AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 AREA (km²) INPUT ZONE ESTIMATE 95% C.L. SOURCE NUMBER OF ELEPHANTS EQUATORIAL GUINEA: ELEPHANT ESTIMATES LAT.LON. MAP LOCATION TYPE RELIAB. SURVEY DETAILS² YEAR CAUSE OF CHANGE¹ PFS³ 800Monte Alén National Park 2002 300 S. Engonga, pers. comm., 2002 EOG3 10.2 E 1.6 N––– 2 330* 1,200Montes Mitra Sector, Monte Alén National Park 2004 700 Puit & Ghiurghi, 2007DDC3 10.0 E 1.4 NNP 2 * Range of informed guess ¹ Key to Causes of Change: DA: Different Area; DD: Data Degraded; DT: Different Technique; NA: New Analysis; NG: New Guess; NP: New population; PL: Population Lost; RS: Repeat Survey (RS´ denotes a repeat survey that is not statistically comparable for reasons such as different season); –––: No Change ² Key to Survey Types: AS: Aerial Sample Count; AT: Aerial Total Count; DC: Dung Count; GD: Genetic Dung Count; GS: Ground Sample Count; GT: Ground Total Count; IG: Informed Guess; IR: Individual Registration; OG: Other Guess. Survey Type is followed by an indicator of survey quality, ranked from 1 to 3 (best to worst). Survey Reliability is keyed A-E (best to worst) ³ PFS: Priority for Future Surveys, ranked from 1 to 5 (highest to lowest). Based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of national range accounted for by the site in question, PFS is a measure of the importance and urgency for future population surveys. All areas of unassessed range have a priority of 1. See Introduction for details on how the PFS is derived. 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! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! D !P !P !P Piedra Nzas NM Altos de Nsork NPEstuario del Muni NR Mbé NP Mt Seni NP Monte Temelón NR Piedra Bere NM Río Campo NR Rest of Gabon Montes Mitra Sector, Monte Alén Monts de Cristal Campo (South) Ma'an Monte Alén Equatorial Guinea Gabon Cameroon Bata Nguelensoc Mbini 10°E 10°E 11°E 11°E 1°N 1°N 2°N 2°N E q u a t o r i a l G u i n e aE q u a t o r i a l G u i n e a This map is unprojected. Scale is indicative only. See Appendix IV for protected area abbreviations. Sources: African Elephant Database Digital Chart of the World African Elephant Specialist Group International Boundary Rivers & Lakes !P Towns Protected Areas Input Zones (variable hatching) Elephant Range Known Possible ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Doubtful D Sighting/sign 0 50 10025 km 62 GABON | CENTRAL AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 G A B O N General Statistics Country area: 267,670 km² Range area (% of country): 218,985 km² (86%) Protected area coverage (% of country): 15% Protected range (% of known and possible range in protected areas): 17% Information Quality Index (IQI): 0.33 CITES Appendix: I Listing Year: 1989 Current Issues Poaching for bushmeat and ivory is believed to be the chief threat to elephant populations in Gabon, although elephant meat is believed to play a relatively minor role in the bushmeat trade (Lahm, 2002). Poaching is also believed to have been exacerbated in recent years by the opening up of new areas for timber exploitation which, while generally resulting in improved habitat for elephants, also increases access for poachers and facilitates the movement of ivory and bushmeat to market centres. A number of forest logging companies are nevertheless collaborating with the Government and conservation organizations in monitoring poaching and elephant presence or absence in their concessions. In addition, the Government of Gabon has established provincial wildlife brigades to fight poaching and the Directorate of Wildlife and Game is collaborating with the army on anti-poaching operations (Hakizumwami & Luhunu, 2005). Gabon is part of the TRIDOM initiative, which aims to create a transboundary conservation area linking Minkébé National Park in Gabon with Odzala-Kokoua National Park in Congo and the Dja Forest Reserve, Nki and Boumba-Bek National Parks in Cameroon. Range Data Elephants are believed to occur through much of Gabon, with the exception of a number of areas with high human population densities. Three-quarters of the country are forested, with a few islands of savanna mainly in the south. Only forest elephants (Loxodonta africana cyclotis) are believed to occur in Gabon, even in the savanna islands. Most of the range map is still based on information provided by Lahm (2003), but an area corresponding to the Massif Chaillu, which lies on the border with Congo and to the east of the town of Tchibanga has been categorized as NON-RANGE, based on data from Sánchez Ariño (2004). The southeastern half of Plateaux Batéké National Park, where no signs of elephant presence were found in a recent survey (Bout, 2006), has been similarly categorized as NON-RANGE. A strip of land along the northern coast of Pongara National Park has been categorized as DOUBTFUL range, as the mangrove forest prevalent in the area is generally avoided by elephants (Latour, 2006). Population Data A line transect dung count of Minkébé National Park, conducted in 2004 as part of the CITES MIKE programme, found high densities of elephants in the park and surrounding area, giving an estimate of 21,070 ± 7,942 (Blake, 2005). A dung count of Lopé National Park conducted in 2005, returned an estimate of 2,350 elephants with an asymmetric confidence interval of 1,385 to 4,200 (Maisels et al., 2006). This replaces a previous dung count estimate of 8,132 with an asymmetric confidence interval of 5,229 to 11,766 (Thomas et al., 2001). The apparent difference in the estimates may be explained by the fact that the older survey extended well beyond the park boundaries and covered an area over three times as large. African Elephant Status Report 2007 CENTRAL AFRICA | GABON 63 SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEData Category DEFINITE SUMMARY TOTALS FOR GABON 08278271,523Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts 07,96522,6300Other Dung Counts 96919,11900Informed Guesses 16,777000Other Guesses 1,523 23,457 27,911 17,746TOTALS 2006 TOTALS 2002 0 8,132 14,712 58,309 INTERPRETATION OF CHANGES IN ESTIMATES FROM PREVIOUS REPORT SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEDEFINITECause of Change Different Technique 0 +22,630 +15,878 0 Different Area +1,523 -7,305 -2,679 0 New Analysis 0 0 0 -40,563 TOTAL CHANGE +1,523 +15,325 +13,199 -40,563 AREA OF RANGE COVERED BY EACH DATA CATEGORY (km²) 4,640 13,843 17,278 169,003 14,222 218,985 4,640 13,843 17,278 169,003 14,222 218,985TOTAL Unassessed Range Other Guesses Informed Guesses Other Dung Counts Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts Total RangeKnown RangeData Category 64 GABON | CENTRAL AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 AREA (km²) INPUT ZONE ESTIMATE 95% C.L. SOURCE NUMBER OF ELEPHANTS GABON: ELEPHANT ESTIMATES LAT.LON. MAP LOCATION TYPE RELIAB. SURVEY DETAILS² YEAR CAUSE OF CHANGE¹ PFS³ 4,339Djouah - Bélinga 2002 4,035 Lahm & Barnes, quest. reply, 2006 DIG3 13.6 E 1.2 NDT 2 969* 10,485Gamba Reserve Complex 1999 11,205 Thibault et al., 2001DIG3 10.1 E 2.4 S––– 2 572 3,475Ivindo National Park & western buffer zone 2005 1,216 F.G. Maisels, pers. comm., 2006a CDC2 12.6 E 0.1 NDT 3 827 4,486Lopé National Park 2005 2,350 Maisels et al., 2006BDC2 11.5 E 0.6 SDA 2 7,942 7,338Minkébé National Park 2004 21,070 Blake, 2005CDC2 12.7 E 1.8 NDT 2 2,083Monts de Cristal 2001 1,396 Lahm & Barnes, quest. reply, 2006 DIG3 10.3 E 0.7 NDT 3 473Mwagne 2001 2,483 Lahm & Barnes, quest. reply, 2006 DIG3 13.8 E 0.5 NDT 3 152 380Pongara National Park 2006 344 Latour, 2006CDC2 9.4 E 0.1 NDT 3 69,018Rest of Gabon Forest Range 1988 16,777 Barnes et al., 1995EDC2 11.7 E 0.7 SNA 1 * Range of informed guess ¹ Key to Causes of Change: DA: Different Area; DD: Data Degraded; DT: Different Technique; NA: New Analysis; NG: New Guess; NP: New population; PL: Population Lost; RS: Repeat Survey (RS´ denotes a repeat survey that is not statistically comparable for reasons such as different season); –––: No Change ² Key to Survey Types: AS: Aerial Sample Count; AT: Aerial Total Count; DC: Dung Count; GD: Genetic Dung Count; GS: Ground Sample Count; GT: Ground Total Count; IG: Informed Guess; IR: Individual Registration; OG: Other Guess. Survey Type is followed by an indicator of survey quality, ranked from 1 to 3 (best to worst). Survey Reliability is keyed A-E (best to worst) ³ PFS: Priority for Future Surveys, ranked from 1 to 5 (highest to lowest). Based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of national range accounted for by the site in question, PFS is a measure of the importance and urgency for future population surveys. All areas of unassessed range have a priority of 1. See Introduction for details on how the PFS is derived. African Elephant Status Report 2007 CENTRAL AFRICA | GABON 65 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 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! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! D !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P Piedra Nzas NM Altos de Nsork NPEstuario del Muni NR Dimonika BR SetteCama HA Moukalaba HA NgoveNdogo HA Loango NP Waka NP Mbé NP Mt Seni NP Pleateaux Batéké NP Biringou NP Iguela HA Monte Temelón NR Piedra Bere NM Ouanga Plain FnR Mont Fouari FnR Mont Mavoumbou HR Nyanga Nord FnR Nyanga Sud FnR Río Campo NR Wonga- Wongue PrR Pongara Rest of Gabon Ivindo Minkébé Montes Mitra Gamba Monts de Cristal Mengame Conkouati Lopé Djouah - Bélinga Mwagne Campo (South) Ma'an Odzala - Kokoua Monte Alén Nki Equatorial Guinea Gabon Cameroon Congo Bata Tchibanga Franceville Port Gentil LIBREVILLE Makokou Oyem Nguelensoc Mbini Sibiti Djambala 9°E 9°E 10°E 10°E 11°E 11°E 12°E 12°E 13°E 13°E 14°E 14°E 4°S 4°S 3°S 3°S 2°S 2°S 1°S 1°S 0° 0° 1°N 1°N 2°N 2°N G a b o nG a b o n This map is unprojected. Scale is indicative only. See Appendix IV for protected area abbreviations. Sources: African Elephant Database Digital Chart of the World African Elephant Specialist Group International Boundary Rivers & Lakes !P Towns Protected Areas Input Zones (variable hatching) Elephant Range Known Possible ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Doubtful D Sighting/sign 0 150 30075 km 66 GABON | CENTRAL AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 Ivindo National Park was surveyed in 2005 using the line transect dung count method. This survey gave an estimate of 1,216 with an asymmetric confidence interval of 730 to 2,000 (F.G. Maisels, pers. comm., 2006a). Pongara National Park was also surveyed in 2006 using the same method, giving an estimate of 344 with an asymmetric confidence interval of 276 to 675 (Latour, 2006). Surveys of Birougou and Loango National Parks were being conducted at the time of writing, but preliminary results suggest densities ranging between 0.1 and 0.4 elephants per km² in Bigougou and between 0.6 and 1.0 per km² in Loango (F.G. Maisels, pers. comm., 2006b). Based on reconnaissance and systematic transect surveys, Lahm (2006) has provided INFORMED GUESSes for the Djouah-Belinga area as well as Monts de Cristal and Mwagne National Parks. The same informant has also surveyed a number of small areas in the west in recent years, but these have been left out as they overlapped with the Gamba complex, the estimate for which has been retained from the previous report. With the exception of the estimate for Lopé, all new estimates for Gabon featured in this report replace parts of a nationwide elephant estimate from Barnes (1995, 1997). In order to avoid double counting, an estimate for the areas not covered by the recent surveys has been calculated by applying the density from the lowest elephant density stratum in Barnes (Barnes et al., 1995). The resulting estimate of 16,777 for the rest of the Gabon forest range appears under the SPECULATIVE category, as the original survey is over 10 years old. As a result of this, the numbers in the DEFINITE, PROBABLE and POSSIBLE categories for Gabon have increased since the previous report, but these increases are outweighed by a decrease in the SPECULATIVE category. None of the new surveys are comparable to the previous estimates, as different areas were covered and different methodologies were employed in some cases. It would therefore be inappropriate to make any comparisons in elephant numbers for Gabon between the previous and this report. Cross-border Movements There may be some cross-border movement across the southern border of Equatorial Guinea with Gabon, around the Monts de Cristal area (Lahm & Barnes, quest. reply, 2006), although hunting pressure in the area may be restricting movement. There is also movement between Cameroon and Gabon to the north of Minkébé National Park (Lahm & Barnes, quest. reply, 2006; de Wachter, 2000). Elephants have been seen to cross between northeastern Gabon and northwest Congo across the Ivindo-Ayina and Djouah rivers (Lahm & Barnes, quest. reply, 2006). Movement may also occur between the Plateaux Batéké National Park and Congo, although elephant densities in this area are believed to be low (Lahm & Barnes, quest. reply, 2006). A recent survey in the Mayumba National Park (not shown on map), a coastal and marine national park in the southwest, adjacent to Conkouati-Douli National Park in Congo, confirmed elephant presence right up to the Gabon-Congo border, thus confirming continued elephant movement between the two countries (F.G. Maisels, pers. comm., 2006b). African Elephant Status Report 2007 EASTERN AFRICA | REGIONAL OVERVIEW 67 E A S T E R N A F R I C A R E G I O N A L O V E R V I E W General Statistics Total Area: 6,182,037 km² Range area (% of region): 880,063 km² (16%) Protected area coverage (% of region): 7% Protected range (% of known and possible range in protected areas): 30% Information Quality Index (IQI): 0.36 Current Issues As elephant populations in Eastern Africa recover from the poaching episodes of the 1970s and 1980s, human population growth and the concomitant loss and fragmentation of habitats are now the chief threats facing elephants in the region. The resulting high levels of human-elephant conflict prevalent in many areas, coupled with the generalized lack of economic incentives for those sharing their resources with wildlife, highlight the need for sound land use planning policies and incentive systems to ensure the long-term viability of Eastern Africa’s elephant populations. The viability of some populations, including those in Eritrea, Ethiopia, Rwanda, Somalia and certain parts of Uganda is already uncertain, while the status of elephants in Sudan remains unknown. In 2007, Tanzania became the first country in the region to seek a downlisting of its elephant population from CITES Appendix I to Appendix II (see Tanzania section for details). While Tanzania is also the only country in the region to have developed and implemented a national elephant management policy (Department of Wildlife, 1995; Wildlife Division, 2001), Kenya is in the process of developing its own national elephant conservation strategy. As many of the challenges facing the conservation of elephants are common to several countries in the region, and since a number of important transboundary populations exist, the formulation of a regional strategy would be desirable. Range Data Savanna elephants (Loxodonta africana africana) are found in the grasslands and woodlands that dominate the Eastern African landscape, as well as in coastal and montane forest areas. Remnants of Central African forest, along the western edge of the region, may hold forest elephants (Loxodonta africana cyclotis) or hybrids. Elephant range in Eastern Africa is currently estimated to span over 880,000 km², and accounts for 26% of continental range. The region ranks third in terms of range extent, behind Southern and Central Africa. The estimated range area has declined by 10% compared with the previous report, largely as a result of updates and improvements in the quality of information available. Approximately 30% of total range lies within designated protected areas. Elephant distribution is relatively well known, with 57% of range being currently categorized as KNOWN, and three-quarters of the data being less than 10 years old. Considerable uncertainty remains, however, as to the distribution of elephants in southern Sudan and Somalia, as well as in unprotected parts of western Tanzania. It is noteworthy that Tanzania and Sudan together account for 80% of the region’s estimated range area. Population Data The overall quality of information for Eastern Africa, as measured by the IQI, has not changed substantially since the AESR 2002. The IQI for the region, which remains relatively low at 0.36, is only 68 REGIONAL OVERVIEW | EASTERN AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 higher than the score for Central Africa. This is due largely to the poor quality of information available for Sudan, which accounts for a sizeable proportion of continental and regional range. Eastern Africa’s largest known populations are found in Tanzania, Kenya and Uganda, with Tanzania alone holding about 80% of the regional population. Elephant population estimates are only available for 45% of the estimated range area (approximately 394,000 km²), but estimates for 86% of this area originate from systematic surveys and are therefore considered to be reliable. Out of 41 new estimates for Eastern African input zones featured in this report, 27 originate from systematic surveys. Estimates from methodologically comparable, systematic surveys have caused the number of elephants under the DEFINITE category to increase by about 19,770. As a result of new estimates from repeated surveys, but also influenced by estimates from surveys conducted using different techniques or covering different areas, numbers in the PROBABLE and POSSIBLE categories have increased by about 11,340 and 12,610 respectively. Estimates from new guesses and from surveys conducted using different techniques are largely responsible for the decrease of nearly 2,200 in the SPECULATIVE category. The combined estimate from methodologically comparable surveys (i.e. those labelled REPEAT SURVEY or RS in the tables of estimates; see Appendix II for a list of sites), which accounts for 78% of the regional DEFINITE plus PROBABLE estimate, has increased by 18% compared with the previous report. However, the actual difference of 19,948 ± 32,356 in the methodologically comparable estimates for Eastern Africa is not statistically significant (t = 1.21, p > 0.10). An analysis of changes in methodologically comparable estimates for Eastern and Southern Africa combined can be found in the Continental Overview section of this report. Cross-border Movements Cross-border populations of elephants occur along the western border of the region with Central Africa and between its southern border and the Southern Africa region. African Elephant Status Report 2007 EASTERN AFRICA | REGIONAL OVERVIEW 69 SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEData Category DEFINITE SUMMARY TOTALS FOR EASTERN AFRICA Aerial or Ground Total Counts 24,003 0 0 0 Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts 112,111 27,990 27,990 0 Other Dung Counts 449 1,053 462 0 Informed Guesses 922 0 6,671 1,534 Other Guesses 0 0 0 2,009 TOTAL 2006 137,485 29,043 35,124 3,543 TOTALS 2002 117,716 17,702 22,511 5,738 INTERPRETATION OF CHANGES IN ESTIMATES FROM PREVIOUS REPORT SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEDEFINITECause of Change Repeat Survey +22,019 +6,003 +5,929 -550 New Population -326 +777 +789 +83 Different Technique -1,202 +2,921 +2,698 -1,108 Different Area -2,511 +2,509 +2,478 0 New Guess +811 0 +2,563 -1,556 New Analysis +978 -870 -859 0 Data Degraded 0 0 -985 +936 TOTAL CHANGE +19,769 -2,195+12,613+11,341 AREA OF RANGE COVERED BY EACH DATA CATEGORY (km²) 98,936 213,940 3,150 27,622 10,082 145,148 498,878 9,054 11,840 0 15,950 3,089 341,252 381,185 107,989 225,779 3,150 43,572 13,171 486,400 880,063TOTAL Unassessed Range Other Guesses Informed Guesses Other Dung Counts Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts Aerial or Ground Total Counts Total RangePossible RangeKnown RangeData Category 70 REGIONAL OVERVIEW | EASTERN AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 COUNTRY DEFINITE RANGE AREA (km²)SPECULATIVEPROBABLE POSSIBLE EASTERN AFRICA: COUNTRY AND REGIONAL TOTALS & DATA QUALITY PFS² % OF REGIONAL RANGE % OF RANGE ASSESSED IQI¹ ELEPHANT NUMBERS Eritrea 96 0 08 5,293 31 100 0.92 Ethiopia 634 0 206920 38,365 24 68 0.24 Kenya 23,353 1,316 2,0214,946 107,113 212 82 0.64 Rwanda 34 0 4637 1,014 40 100 0.29 Somalia 0 0 700 4,526 31 68 0.00 Sudan 20 0 0280 318,239 136 0 0.00 Tanzania 108,816 27,937 90029,350 390,366 144 66 0.54 Uganda 2,337 1,985 3001,937 15,148 32 74 0.49 137,485 29,043 35,124 3,543 880,063TOTAL* 226 45 0.36 * Note that totals for the Definite, Probable and Possible categories are derived by pooling the variances of individual estimates, as described under the Data Types and Categorization section. As a result, totals do not necessarily match the simple sum of the entries within a given category. ¹ IQI: Information Quality Index. This index quantifies overall data quality at the national and regional levels based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of assessed elephant range (i.e. range for which estimates are available). The IQI ranges from zero (no reliable information) to one (perfect information). See the Introduction section for a detailed explanation of how the IQI is calculated. ² PFS: Priority for Future Surveys, ranked from 1 to 5 (highest to lowest). Based on the IQI and the proportion of continental range accounted for by the country in question, the PFS is a measure of the importance and urgency for future population surveys, particularly in areas of unassessed range and areas not surveyed in the last 10 years or more. See Introduction for a more detailed explanation of how the priority ranking is derived. African Elephant Status Report 2007 EASTERN AFRICA | REGIONAL OVERVIEW 71 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 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! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P Zambia Uganda Tanzania Chad Somalia Sudan Rwanda Mozambique Malawi Libya Kenya Ethiopia Eritrea Egypt Djibouti Central African Republic Democratic Republic of Congo Burundi Angola KHARTOUM MOGADISHU KIGALI KAMPALA DAR ES SALAAM ADDIS ABABA ASMARA NAIROBI 20°E 20°E 30°E 30°E 40°E 40°E 50°E 50°E 10°S 10°S 0° 0° 10°N 10°N 20°N 20°N E a s t e r n A f r i c aE a s t e r n A f r i c a African Elephant Specialist Group This map is unprojected. Scale is indicative only. Sources: African Elephant Database Digital Chart of the World Regional Boundary International Boundary !P CAPITAL CITIES Rivers & Lakes Protected Areas Input Zones Elephant Range Known Possible ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Doubtful 0 700 1,400350 km 72 ERITREA | EASTERN AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 E R I T R E A General Statistics Country area: 121,320 km² Range area (% of country): 5,293 km² (4%) Protected area coverage (% of country): 0% Protected range (% of known and possible range in protected areas): 0% Information Quality Index (IQI): 0.92 CITES Appendix: I Listing Year: 1989 Current Issues Continued tensions between Eritrea and Ethiopia make conservation and research work difficult. The area in which elephants live continues to be unprotected, and conflicts with farmers are common. Implementation of a plan to fit a number of elephants with radio collars to investigate their movement patterns met with unexpected delays and had not commenced at the time of writing. Range Data Elephants in Eritrea are confined to the south of the Gash Barka District, along the Ethiopian border in the southwest of the country. The area where elephants are found is bound by the seasonal Gash River to the north and the permanent Setit River, which forms the border with Ethiopia, to the south. No changes have been made to the range map for this report, and the information depicted is still based on a study of elephant sign and spoor conducted by Shoshani et al. (2004). Population Data A systematic survey of the Gash-Setit population was planned for 2004 (Shoshani et al., 2004), but did not take place. Sightings of large groups continue to be regularly reported by farmers, United Nations personnel and researchers. A total of 83 elephants were seen during an expedition to the area in early 2003 (Hagos et al., 2003). Later in 2003, two distinct groups were photographed from the air, one composed of at least 79 elephants and a smaller one of at least 17. These sightings are believed to have nearly covered Eritrea’s elephant population, estimated at around 100 animals, in its entirety (J. Shoshani, pers. comm., 2006; Shoshani et al., 2004). These sightings have been entered as an INFORMED GUESS, replacing a 2003 INFORMED GUESS by the same authors. Changes in the DEFINITE, POSSIBLE and SPECULATIVE categories therefore reflect better information, rather than changes in the size of the elephant population. Cross-border Movements Eritrea’s elephants form part of a single transboundary population that straddles the border with Ethiopia to the south. There appears to be a regular movement pattern, with elephants spending the dry season (October to March) in Eritrea and crossing the border twice every year to spend the wet season in Ethiopia (Shoshani et al., 2004). The mapped elephant range extends to the Sudanese border, but Shoshani et al. (2004) believe that elephants do not cross that border. African Elephant Status Report 2007 EASTERN AFRICA | ERITREA 73 SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEData Category DEFINITE SUMMARY TOTALS FOR ERITREA 0000Aerial or Ground Total Counts 08096Informed Guesses 96 0 8 0TOTALS 2006 TOTALS 2002 83 0 17 20 INTERPRETATION OF CHANGES IN ESTIMATES FROM PREVIOUS REPORT SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEDEFINITECause of Change New Guess +13 0 -9 -20 TOTAL CHANGE +13 0 -9 -20 AREA OF RANGE COVERED BY EACH DATA CATEGORY (km²) 18 5,275 5,293 18 5,275 5,293TOTAL Informed Guesses Aerial or Ground Total Counts Total RangeKnown RangeData Category 74 ERITREA | EASTERN AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 AREA (km²) INPUT ZONE ESTIMATE 95% C.L. SOURCE NUMBER OF ELEPHANTS ERITREA: ELEPHANT ESTIMATES LAT.LON. MAP LOCATION TYPE RELIAB. SURVEY DETAILS² YEAR CAUSE OF CHANGE¹ PFS³ 5,275Gash-Setit 2003 104 Shoshani et al., 2004DIG3 37.3 E 14.8 NNG 1 534Sheraro 1997 0 Litoroh, 1997aAAT2 37.6 E 14.4 N––– ¹ Key to Causes of Change: DA: Different Area; DD: Data Degraded; DT: Different Technique; NA: New Analysis; NG: New Guess; NP: New population; PL: Population Lost; RS: Repeat Survey (RS´ denotes a repeat survey that is not statistically comparable for reasons such as different season); –––: No Change ² Key to Survey Types: AS: Aerial Sample Count; AT: Aerial Total Count; DC: Dung Count; GD: Genetic Dung Count; GS: Ground Sample Count; GT: Ground Total Count; IG: Informed Guess; IR: Individual Registration; OG: Other Guess. Survey Type is followed by an indicator of survey quality, ranked from 1 to 3 (best to worst). Survey Reliability is keyed A-E (best to worst) ³ PFS: Priority for Future Surveys, ranked from 1 to 5 (highest to lowest). Based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of national range accounted for by the site in question, PFS is a measure of the importance and urgency for future population surveys. All areas of unassessed range have a priority of 1. See Introduction for details on how the PFS is derived. African Elephant Status Report 2007 EASTERN AFRICA | ERITREA 75 !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P Tekezze (Setit) Tana ShiraroKefta WCA Gash- Setit Sheraro Shire Tekezze Valley Sudan Ethiopia Eritrea Djibouti Haicota Kassala Gonder Axum Barentu Assab ASMARA Antore 37°E 37°E 38°E 38°E 39°E 39°E 40°E 40°E 41°E 41°E 42°E 42°E 43°E 43°E 12°N 12°N 13°N 13°N 14°N 14°N 15°N 15°N 16°N 16°N 17°N 17°N 18°N 18°N E r i t r e aE r i t r e a This map is unprojected. Scale is indicative only. See Appendix IV for protected area abbreviations. Sources: African Elephant Database Digital Chart of the World African Elephant Specialist Group International Boundary Rivers & Lakes !P Towns Protected Areas Input Zones (variable hatching) Elephant Range Known Possible ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Doubtful D Sighting/sign 0 170 34085 km 76 ETHIOPIA | EASTERN AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 E T H I O P I A General Statistics Country area: 1,127,127 km² Range area (% of country): 38,365 km² (4%) Protected area coverage (% of country): 11% Protected range (% of known and possible range in protected areas): 61% Information Quality Index (IQI): 0.24 CITES Appendix: I Listing Year: 1989 Current Issues Despite the creation of some new wildlife areas, resources for protection within reserves remain limited, and non-existent outside. In order to address this issue, the Ethiopian Government is experimenting with new management approaches in some of its parks and reserves. In 2005 the African Parks Foundation took over the management of Nechisar National Park. Although Nechisar does not have any elephants, development plans include the translocation of this and other species into the park. The management of Omo, a national park that is periodically visited by elephants, was also taken over by African Parks the following year. African Parks aims to generate revenue from tourism and to share benefits with local communities, but both projects have been controversial amidst claims that indigenous peoples were forcibly resettled or denied access to traditional subsistence resources (IUCN/CEESP, 2005). At the 12th Meeting of the Conference of the Parties to CITES, held in Santiago, Chile in 2002, and following a 2002 report identifying it as having the largest unregulated ivory market in Eastern Africa (Milliken et al., 2002), Ethiopia was placed in a list of 10 “priority countries” where action was most needed to control the global ivory trade. At the 13th Meeting of the Conference of the Parties to CITES in 2004, Ethiopia remained on the global “priority list”, but more recent reports suggest that the country has made significant progress towards controlling its domestic ivory market (Milledge & Abdi, 2005). Poaching is reported to continue in areas such as Gambella National Park (Y. Demeke, pers. comm., 2006), and there is still a need to accurately assess the status of elephant populations at the national level. Range Data Most of Ethiopia’s elephant range is concentrated in the west. Elephant populations are small, fragmented and highly mobile, and their movements are poorly understood. Several areas previously classified as POSSIBLE range around Mizan Teferi Controlled Hunting Area and along the border with Sudan, have been re-categorized as DOUBTFUL range, based on the Landscan 2002 human population data set. This has reduced the estimated total range area for Ethiopia by around 13,000 km². A recent study has established that a remnant population in the newly created Chebera-Churchura Regional Park is resident in the park throughout the year. This population is believed to be isolated from the highly mobile population that visits the nearby Omo and Mago National Parks (M. Admassu, cited by Y. Demeke, pers. comm., 2006), and the area is now shown as KNOWN range. The seasonal presence of elephants has been confirmed in the newly created Alatash Wildlife Conservation Area. They are said to come from Dinder National Park, across the border in Sudan. As the boundary for Alatash is currently unavailable, this is shown as a cross on the map. As in the previous report, a number of crosses are also shown in areas where elephants are known to appear only sporadically. These include the Tama Wildlife Reserve, Murle Controlled Hunting Area and African Elephant Status Report 2007 EASTERN AFRICA | ETHIOPIA 77 SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEData Category DEFINITE SUMMARY TOTALS FOR ETHIOPIA 0006Aerial or Ground Total Counts 2009200628Informed Guesses 6000Other Guesses 634 0 920 206TOTALS 2006 TOTALS 2002 396 0 965 335 INTERPRETATION OF CHANGES IN ESTIMATES FROM PREVIOUS REPORT SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEDEFINITECause of Change New Guess +238 0 -45 -129 TOTAL CHANGE +238 0 -45 -129 AREA OF RANGE COVERED BY EACH DATA CATEGORY (km²) 8,988 1,129 646 10,763 15,907 0 11,695 27,602 24,895 1,129 12,341 38,365TOTAL Unassessed Range Other Guesses Informed Guesses Total RangePossible RangeKnown RangeData Category 78 ETHIOPIA | EASTERN AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 AREA (km²) INPUT ZONE ESTIMATE 95% C.L. SOURCE NUMBER OF ELEPHANTS ETHIOPIA: ELEPHANT ESTIMATES LAT.LON. MAP LOCATION TYPE RELIAB. SURVEY DETAILS² YEAR CAUSE OF CHANGE¹ PFS³ 3,508Babille Elephant Sanctuary 2005 264 Y. Demeke, pers. comm., 2006DIG3 42.3 E 8.7 NNG 2 4,212Chebera-Churchura Wildlife Reserve 2001 60 Chago et al., 2001DIG3 36.8 E 6.9 N––– 2 2,127Dabus Valley Controlled Hunting Area 1998 200 M. Abdi, pers. comm., 1998DIG3 35.1 E 10.6 N––– 2 5,061Gambella National Park 2002 200 EWCO, 2002DIG3 33.9 E 8.0 N––– 1 200* 6,230Mago & Omo National Parks 2002 324 Demeke, 2003DIG3 36.0 E 5.8 N––– 1 3,160Mizan Teferi Controlled Hunting Area 1998 500 M. Abdi, pers. comm., 1998DIG3 35.7 E 7.4 N––– 2 1,123Shire 1997 6 Litoroh, 1997aAAT2 37.8 E 14.3 N––– 2 1,130Tekezze Valley Wildlife Reserve 1996 6 Litoroh, 1997aEAT2 37.2 E 14.2 N––– 2 * Range of informed guess ¹ Key to Causes of Change: DA: Different Area; DD: Data Degraded; DT: Different Technique; NA: New Analysis; NG: New Guess; NP: New population; PL: Population Lost; RS: Repeat Survey (RS´ denotes a repeat survey that is not statistically comparable for reasons such as different season); –––: No Change ² Key to Survey Types: AS: Aerial Sample Count; AT: Aerial Total Count; DC: Dung Count; GD: Genetic Dung Count; GS: Ground Sample Count; GT: Ground Total Count; IG: Informed Guess; IR: Individual Registration; OG: Other Guess. Survey Type is followed by an indicator of survey quality, ranked from 1 to 3 (best to worst). Survey Reliability is keyed A-E (best to worst) ³ PFS: Priority for Future Surveys, ranked from 1 to 5 (highest to lowest). Based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of national range accounted for by the site in question, PFS is a measure of the importance and urgency for future population surveys. All areas of unassessed range have a priority of 1. See Introduction for details on how the PFS is derived. African Elephant Status Report 2007 EASTERN AFRICA | ETHIOPIA 79 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! D D D D D D D D D DD D D !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P Wabe Shebele Genale W ebi Shabeelli Tekezze (Setit) Juba Turkana Tana Murle CHA Shiraro-Kefta WCA Borana CHA Akobo CHA Tedo CHA Jikao CHA Losai NlR Mount Elgon NP Nasolot NlR South Turkana NlR Malka Mari NP Chew Bahr WR Tama WR Boma NP Dinder NP Samburu - Laikipia Gash- Setit Sheraro Shire Kerio Valley Chebera- Churchura Mt Elgon Mago & Omo Loroki Marsabit Kidepo Valley Mizan Teferi Gambella Babille Dabus Valley Tekezze Valley Uganda Somalia Sudan Kenya Ethiopia Eritrea Djibouti Jowhar Baidoa Haicota Kassala MOGADISHU Hargeysa Berbera Gonder Axum Barentu ADDIS ABABA Harar Debre Markos Assab ASMARA Antore Marsabit Lodwar Alatash 33°E 33°E 34°E 34°E 35°E 35°E 36°E 36°E 37°E 37°E 38°E 38°E 39°E 39°E 40°E 40°E 41°E 41°E 42°E 42°E 43°E 43°E 44°E 44°E 45°E 45°E 46°E 46°E 47°E 47°E 48°E 48°E 2°N 2°N 3°N 3°N 4°N 4°N 5°N 5°N 6°N 6°N 7°N 7°N 8°N 8°N 9°N 9°N 10°N 10°N 11°N 11°N 12°N 12°N 13°N 13°N 14°N 14°N 15°N 15°N 16°N 16°N 17°N 17°N E t h i o p i aE t h i o p i a This map is unprojected. Scale is indicative only. See Appendix IV for protected area abbreviations. Sources: African Elephant Database Digital Chart of the World African Elephant Specialist Group International Boundary Rivers & Lakes !P Towns Protected Areas Input Zones (variable hatching) Elephant Range Known Possible ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Doubtful D Sighting/sign 0 380 760190 km 80 ETHIOPIA | EASTERN AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 Borana Controlled Hunting Area, where a small number of elephants are thought to move along the Dawa River valley (Chago et al., 2001; Demeke, quest. reply, 2002). Population Data No systematic surveys have been conducted in Ethiopia since 2002, and most estimates have been retained from the previous report. The only new figure for Ethiopia is an INFORMED GUESS for the Babille Elephant Sanctuary, where a long-term study reports an estimate of 264 elephants, of which 244 have been individually verified (Y. Demeke, pers. comm., 2006). This estimate replaces a 1998 INFORMED GUESS of 65 to 135 (F. Tekle, pers. comm., 1998). The resident population in Mago National Park is now believed to be under 150 elephants (Y. Demeke, pers. comm., 2006), but the previous combined estimate for Mago and Omo (324 elephants) has been retained, since it is likely to include the mobile Omo population, which is not reflected elsewhere in the AED. The Chebera-Churchura Regional Park population was incorrectly depicted in the previous report as being in the Chew Bahr Wildlife Reserve, on the border with Kenya. Although the estimate remains unchanged, the name and location have been corrected for this report. There are no estimates of elephant abundance for nearly a third of Ethiopia’s estimated elephant range. Most of the remaining two-thirds are only covered by INFORMED GUESSES. Cross-border Movements A transboundary population occurs in the north, around the Shire Wildlife Reserve (recently renamed Shiraro-Kefta Wildlife Conservation Area). Elephants cross over the border into Eritrea, where they spend the dry season (November-April). Although elephants were believed to have disappeared from Dinder National Park in Sudan by the early 1990s (Wildlife Conservation and National Parks Forces, 1991), signs of elephant presence continue to be reported in the newly created Alatash Wildlife Conservation Area (not shown on the map). It would appear that these elephants move to and from Dinder (Demeke, quest. reply, 2002; Mohammed & Kassa, 1998; Y. Demeke, pers. comm., 2006). Elephants may also move between Ethiopia and Sudan in the Gambella area and further south, but the presence of camps of armed refugees near the border may restrict their movements (Thouless, 1995). A small population of between 50 and 100 elephants may still exist in the desert between Moyale and Mandera in northern Kenya, and it is possible that these move in and out of Ethiopia (Thouless et al., 2003). Elephants in Omo National Park are not resident in the park, and are believed to arrive seasonally from neighbouring Sudan, in what presumably is a circular movement pattern connecting Omo National Park and Akobo Controlled Hunting Area in Ethiopia with Boma National Park in Sudan. Another suspected migration route would connect Omo with Sudan’s Kidepo Game Reserve (Frederick, 2005). African Elephant Status Report 2007 EASTERN AFRICA | KENYA 81 K E N Y A General Statistics Country area: 582,650 km² Range area (% of country): 107,113 km² (19%) Protected area coverage (% of country): 8% Protected range (% of known and possible range in protected areas): 33% Information Quality Index (IQI): 0.64 CITES Appendix: I Listing Year: 1989 Current Issues Human-elephant conflict continues to be among the most prominent issues affecting elephant conservation in Kenya. In 2003 the country embarked on a process to amend its current wildlife law, but progress has been hampered by controversy between proponents of consumptive utilization of wildlife and those against it. Meanwhile, another process was begun in 2005 to develop a national elephant conservation strategy. An operation to translocate 400 elephants from the Shimba Hills National Reserve to Tsavo East National Park, budgeted at US$3.2 million, commenced in August 2005. At the time of writing, a total of 150 elephants had been moved successfully (P. Omondi, pers. comm., 2006). An additional 150 elephants were being moved by lorry out of the fenced Ngulia Rhino sanctuary, situated in Tsavo East National Park, into the main park. In October 2005 the Government issued a legal notice to revert the status of Amboseli National Park to a National Reserve, thus transferring the responsibility over its management to local Government. An injunction against the move was sought and obtained by a number of conservation lobby groups. At the time of writing, the situation remained unresolved due to delays in the legal process. Range Data Kenya's elephants occur in both savanna and forest habitats, but are all believed to be savanna elephants (Loxodonta africana africana). The largest savanna ranges are those of the Tsavo ecosystem and the Samburu and Laikipia Districts. The main highland forest populations are those of the Aberdare range and Mount Kenya. There are other smaller, isolated populations in coastal forests and other inland areas. A few new areas of range have been added to the map. An extensive survey of elephant sightings in Kenya’s southern Rift Valley (Mwathe et al., 2006) has resulted in the eastward extension of the Nguruman range, the westward extension of the Amboseli range, and the addition of two small patches of range between the two ecosystems. Around this area, and to the north and west of it, a number of crosses corresponding to elephant sightings have been added. The eastern sector of the Tana River Primate Reserve has been categorized as KNOWN range based on information provided by Knocker (2005). Although elephants have been seen in the western sector of the reserve, they are not believed to be resident on the right bank of the river, and this area has been categorized as POSSIBLE range. Knocker (2005) has also provided additional information on the distribution of elephants in the in the Tana River Delta, and the map has been corrected accordingly. Population Data Relatively little survey activity has taken place in Kenya since the last report. An aerial total count of Tsavo National Park conducted in 2005 returned an estimate of 10,397 elephants (Omondi & Bitok, 2005). This replaces an estimate of 9,211 from a 2002 survey (Omondi et al., 2002d). The survey included the South Kitui National Reserve, previously excluded from Tsavo counts. However, as no elephants were found in the area, South Kitui appears on the table with an estimate of zero. 82 KENYA | EASTERN AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 While Samburu District has not been surveyed since 2002, three aerial sample counts have been conducted in Laikipia District since then, returning estimates of 3,742 ± 1,926 in 2003, 4,612 ± 1,746 in 2004 and 4,652 ± 2,002 in 2005 (Georgiadis et al., 2003; Georgiadis et al., 2004). As none of these estimates are significantly different, and since elephants are known to move between Samburu and Laikipia, the combined total count estimate for both districts has been retained from the previous report. An aerial sample count was conducted in Masai Mara by Kenya’s Department of Resource Surveys and Remote Sensing (DRSRS) in 2004, but results were not available in time for this report. In consequence, the aerial total count estimate of 1,655 from the previous report has been retained. The Amboseli Elephant Research Project (AERP) continues to maintain an individual registration record of elephants in the ecosystem. At the end of 2005, there were 1,417 individually registered elephants in the population (Poole, quest. reply, 2005). This figure replaces a 2002 estimate of 1,100 also provided by the AERP (C.J. Moss, pers. comm., 2003). Three dung counts based on the “reconnaissance transect” method were conducted in the Aberdare ecosystem between 2003 and 2005. These surveys included, for the first time, the Kipipiri Forest Reserve (Bitok & Kones, 2005). As the method uses lines of least resistance and thus tends to result in considerable overestimates, only the lower confidence limit of the estimate has been used in this report, categorized as an INFORMED GUESS. The estimates from this survey must be treated with caution, as they are likely to remain on the high side. They replace a 1990 dung count estimate of 1822 ± 729 (Blom et al., 1990) for the Aberdare National Park and a guess of 700 for the surrounding area (Butynski, 1999). An INFORMED GUESS of 139 for Mount Elgon, obtained from a team who have been tracking elephants on the ground since 2002 (Bitok, 2002), replaces a 1999 INFORMED GUESS of 400 (Thouless et al., 2003). For Marsabit, an INFORMED GUESS of 150 provided by Omondi (2006), based on ground monitoring activities, replaces a 1999 INFORMED GUESS of 500 (P.O.M. Omondi, pers. comm., 1998). In March 2005 a group of 120 elephants was sighted in Shompole, in the Nguruman area (Mwathe et al., 2006). While the informants believe that Chege's (1998) estimate of 150, featured in the previous report, may still represent a reasonable INFORMED GUESS, the 2005 sighting represents a more reliable and up-todate minimum estimate for the Nguruman area (Mwathe et al., 2006), and has been used to replace Chege's estimate. Knocker (2005) estimates there to be around 30 elephants in the Tana River Primate Reserve, and this is reflected in a new entry in the table of estimates.All other estimates have been retained from the previous report. The number of elephants under the DEFINITE category has increased by 1,317, largely due to reported increases in the Tsavo and Amboseli populations. Changes in the other three categories are, for the most part, given by new guesses and the degradation of old estimates to the SPECULATIVE category. Cross-border Movements Cross-border movements occur mainly across the Kenya-Tanzania border, in the Serengeti-Mara, TsavoMkomazi and Amboseli-Kilimanjaro ecosystems. There may also be movement of elephants between Boni National Reserve in northeastern Kenya and Lag Badana Bushbush in Somalia. It is also possible that elephants move between northern Kenya and Ethiopia, but the number involved is likely to be small (Thouless et al., 2003). Limited cross-border movements may occur between Kenya and Uganda in the vicinity of Kidepo National Park and on Mount Elgon. However, elephants have not been seen on the Ugandan side of the mountain for many years (F. Michelmore, pers. comm., 1998). African Elephant Status Report 2007 EASTERN AFRICA | KENYA 83 SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEData Category DEFINITE SUMMARY TOTALS FOR KENYA 00020,376Aerial or Ground Total Counts 06416412,454Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts 0412675434Other Dung Counts 9883,893089Informed Guesses 1,033000Other Guesses 23,353 1,316 4,946 2,021TOTALS 2006 TOTALS 2002 22,036 1,101 3,097 2,572 INTERPRETATION OF CHANGES IN ESTIMATES FROM PREVIOUS REPORT SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEDEFINITECause of Change Repeat Survey +1,452 0 0 0 New Population 0 0 +12 +55 Different Technique -224 +215 +142 0 New Guess +89 0 +2,636 -1,609 Data Degraded 0 0 -941 +1,003 TOTAL CHANGE +1,317 +215 +1,849 -551 AREA OF RANGE COVERED BY EACH DATA CATEGORY (km²) 68,714 2,530 2,357 4,276 1,166 12,597 91,640 8,846 0 0 43 0 6,584 15,473 77,560 2,530 2,357 4,319 1,166 19,181 107,113TOTAL Unassessed Range Other Guesses Informed Guesses Other Dung Counts Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts Aerial or Ground Total Counts Total RangePossible RangeKnown RangeData Category 84 KENYA | EASTERN AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 AREA (km²) INPUT ZONE ESTIMATE 95% C.L. SOURCE NUMBER OF ELEPHANTS KENYA: ELEPHANT ESTIMATES LAT.LON. MAP LOCATION TYPE RELIAB. SURVEY DETAILS² YEAR CAUSE OF CHANGE¹ PFS³ 461* 767Aberdare National Park 2005 1,840 Bitok & Kones, 2005DIG3 36.7 E 0.4 SNG 3 472* 663Aberdare (Outside) 2005 1,700 Bitok & Kones, 2005DIG3 36.7 E 0.6 SNG 3 5,547Amboseli Ecosystem 2005 1,417 Poole, quest. reply, 2005AIR1 37.4 E 2.6 SRS 2 43 415Arabuko Sokoke Forest Reserve 2002 184 Litoroh, 2002bBDC1 39.9 E 3.3 S––– 3 606Bisanadi National Reserve 2002 100 Omondi et al., 2002aAAT2 38.4 E 0.1 N––– 3 46 1,643Boni & Dodori National Reserves 2000 50 M. Litoroh, pers. comm., 2003CDC3 41.2 E 1.8 S––– 2 4,616Kerio Valley Conservation & dispersal areas 2002 490 Omondi et al., 2002bAAT3 35.7 E 1.6 N––– 2 25* 43Kipipiri Forest Reserve 2005 13 Bitok & Kones, 2005DIG3 36.6 E 0.4 SNP 4 1,789Kora National Park 2002 5 Omondi et al., 2002aAAT2 38.7 E 0.2 S––– 3 5,964Lamu District 2000 82 M. Litoroh, pers. comm., 2003AAT3 40.6 E 2.1 S––– 2 354 596Loroki Forest 1997 210 Bitok et al., 1997CDC3 36.8 E 1.1 N––– 3 142Marsabit National Park 2005 150 P.O.M. Omondi, pers. comm., 2006 DIG3 38.0 E 2.2 NNG 3 1,510Masai Mara National Reserve 2002 1,655 Muriuki, 2002AAT3 35.1 E 1.5 S––– 3 1,978Masai Mara (Outside) 2002 461 Muriuki, 2002AAT3 35.3 E 1.4 S––– 3 1,267Mau Forest Complex 1995 1,003 Njumbi et al., 1995EDC3 35.5 E 0.5 SDD 2 884Meru National Park 2002 272 Omondi et al., 2002aAAT2 38.2 E 0.1 N––– 3 3,516Meru North Dispersal Areas 2002 36 Omondi et al., 2002aAAT3 38.3 E 0.5 N––– 2 1,083Mt Elgon National Park & Forest Reserve 2002 139 Bitok, 2002DIG3 34.6 E 1.0 NNG 3 640 2,007Mt Kenya National Park & Forest Reserve 2001 2,911 Vanleeuwe, 1997BDC1 37.4 E 0.2 S––– 2 68Mwea National Reserve 1998 55 Manegene & Musoki, 1998AGT1 37.6 E 0.8 S––– 4 30* 2,197Nguruman 2005 120 Mwathe et al., 2006DIG3 36.0 E 1.8 SNG 2 745North Kitui National Reserve 2002 0 Omondi et al., 2002aAAT2 38.5 E 0.3 S––– 28,530Samburu - Laikipia Ecosystem 2002 5,447 Omondi et al., 2002cAAT3 37.3 E 0.8 N––– 1 151 250Shimba Hills Ecosystem 2002 649 Litoroh, 2002aCDC2 39.4 E 4.2 SDT 3 1,827South Kitui National Reserve 2005 0 Omondi & Bitok, 2005AAT3 38.8 E 1.8 SNP 145Tana River Delta 2002 20 W.I. Knocker, pers. comm., 2003 DIG3 40.4 E 2.5 S––– 3 72Tana River Primate National Reserve 2005 30 W.I. Knocker, pers. comm., 2005 EOG3 40.1 E 1.8 SNP 4 139 300Transmara Forest 1997 200 Wamukayo et al., 1997CDC3 Not Shown––– 3 20,812Tsavo National Park 2005 9,021 Omondi & Bitok, 2005AAT3 38.6 E 3.0 SRS 2 16,570Tsavo (Outside) Ecosystem 2005 1,335 Omondi & Bitok, 2005AAT3 39.0 E 3.2 SRS 2 * Range of informed guess ¹ Key to Causes of Change: DA: Different Area; DD: Data Degraded; DT: Different Technique; NA: New Analysis; NG: New Guess; NP: New population; PL: Population Lost; RS: Repeat Survey (RS´ denotes a repeat survey that is not statistically comparable for reasons such as different season); –––: No Change ² Key to Survey Types: AS: Aerial Sample Count; AT: Aerial Total Count; DC: Dung Count; GD: Genetic Dung Count; GS: Ground Sample Count; GT: Ground Total Count; IG: Informed Guess; IR: Individual Registration; OG: Other Guess. Survey Type is followed by an indicator of survey quality, ranked from 1 to 3 (best to worst). Survey Reliability is keyed A-E (best to worst) ³ PFS: Priority for Future Surveys, ranked from 1 to 5 (highest to lowest). Based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of national range accounted for by the site in question, PFS is a measure of the importance and urgency for future population surveys. All areas of unassessed range have a priority of 1. See Introduction for details on how the PFS is derived. African Elephant Status Report 2007 EASTERN AFRICA | KENYA 85 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! D D D D D D DD D D D DD D !P !P !P!P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P Tana Juba G enale Wembere Eyasi Natron Magadi Masinga Naivasha Nakuru Bogoria L.Victoria Baringo Turkana Murle CHA Borana CHA Kidepo GR Taita Hills NlR Rahole NlR Rimoi NlR Losai NlR Mkungunero GR Arusha NP Tsavo West NP Chyulu Hills NlR Grumeti GR Tsavo East NP Ikorongo GR Buffalo Springs NlR Samburu NlR Maralal NS Mount Elgon NP South Turkana NlR Malka Mari NP Chew Bahr WR Tana River Delta Kilimanjaro Samburu - Laikipia Lake Manyara Ngorongoro Crater Ngorongoro South Maswa Longido Aberdare (Outside) Mt Kenya Lamu Amboseli Serengeti Tana River Primate Makao Aberdare North Kitui Bisanadi Kora Meru Meru North Kerio Valley Tsavo (Outside) West Loliondo South Kitui Kipipiri Shimba HillsMkomazi Tarangire Tsavo Boni & Dodori Arabuko Sokoke Nguruman Masai Mara Masai Mara (Outside) Lag Badana Bushbush Mwea Mau Mt Elgon Tarangire (Outside) Loroki Marsabit Kidepo Valley Uganda Tanzania Somalia Sudan Kenya Ethiopia Kismayo Jinja Tororo Arusha Mombasa Malindi NAIROBI Kisumu Nanyuki Marsabit Lodwar 34°E 34°E 35°E 35°E 36°E 36°E 37°E 37°E 38°E 38°E 39°E 39°E 40°E 40°E 41°E 41°E 42°E 42°E 4°S 4°S 3°S 3°S 2°S 2°S 1°S 1°S 0° 0° 1°N 1°N 2°N 2°N 3°N 3°N 4°N 4°N K e n y aK e n y a This map is unprojected. Scale is indicative only. See Appendix IV for protected area abbreviations. Sources: African Elephant Database Digital Chart of the World African Elephant Specialist Group International Boundary Rivers & Lakes !P Towns Protected Areas Input Zones (variable hatching) Elephant Range Known Possible ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Doubtful D Sighting/sign 0 220 440110 km 86 RWANDA | EASTERN AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 R W A N D A General Statistics Country area: 26,340 km² Range area (% of country): 1,014 km² (4%) Protected area coverage (% of country): 9% Protected range (% of known and possible range in protected areas): 100% Information Quality Index (IQI): 0.29 CITES Appendix: I Listing Year: 1989 Current Issues Rwanda’s elephant populations are small and fragmented, while human settlement is dense and widely distributed. Human-elephant conflict is prevalent in the environs of Akagera National Park, and farmers in the area are calling for the enactment of laws to address the problem of crop raiding. Range Data Rwanda is one of Africa’s smallest and yet most densely populated nations and natural habitats are scarce as a result. Only two fragments of elephant range remain: the Akagera National Park on the northeastern border with Tanzania, to which elephants were translocated in the mid-1970s, and the Parc National des Volcans, to which elephants have returned since the end of the civil war in the 1990s (Gray, quest. reply, 2005; Williamson et al., 2000). Elephants were no longer present in the Nyungwe Forest by the late 1990s (Plumptre et al., 2002). Population Data A point transect dung survey conducted in 2003 returned an estimate of 89 elephants for the entire Virunga-Volcans range, thus including, in addition to the Parc National des Volcans, the Mikeno sector of Virunga National Park in Democratic Republic of Congo and Mgahinga National Park in Uganda (Owiunji et al., 2004). This estimate has been split between the three parks in proportion to their area, giving an estimate of 37 for the Parc National des Volcans. Dung density was found to be highest in the Mikeno sectors of the survey, close to ranger stations and where signs of human disturbance were lowest. The area used to extrapolate the elephant dung densities in the sampled plots included high altitude areas not normally visited by elephants and, as a result, the elephant population may have been overestimated in this survey. For these reasons, the estimate has been categorized as an INFORMED GUESS and used to replace a 1989 guess of 20-30 (Office Rwandais du Tourisme et des Parcs Nationaux, 1991). This replacement is the cause of an increase of 37 in the POSSIBLE category and a decrease of 20 in the SPECULATIVE category. The estimate shown for Akagera Mutara has been retained unchanged from the previous report. Cross-border Movements Elephants in the Parc National des Volcans are part of a single transboundary population that includes the Mgahinga Gorilla National Park in Uganda and the Mikeno sector of Virunga National Park in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Elephants used to move between Akagera and Ibanda, Burigi and Biharamulo in Tanzania, but their passage is now restricted by high levels of refugee settlement on the Tanzanian side. African Elephant Status Report 2007 EASTERN AFRICA | RWANDA 87 SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEData Category DEFINITE SUMMARY TOTALS FOR RWANDA 4637034Informed Guesses 34 0 37 46TOTALS 2006 TOTALS 2002 34 0 0 66 INTERPRETATION OF CHANGES IN ESTIMATES FROM PREVIOUS REPORT SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEDEFINITECause of Change New Guess 0 0 +37 -20 TOTAL CHANGE 0 0 +37 -20 AREA OF RANGE COVERED BY EACH DATA CATEGORY (km²) 1,014 1,014 1,014 1,014TOTAL Informed Guesses Total RangeKnown RangeData Category 88 RWANDA | EASTERN AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 AREA (km²) INPUT ZONE ESTIMATE 95% C.L. SOURCE NUMBER OF ELEPHANTS RWANDA: ELEPHANT ESTIMATES LAT.LON. MAP LOCATION TYPE RELIAB. SURVEY DETAILS² YEAR CAUSE OF CHANGE¹ PFS³ 46* 3,463Akagera-Mutara National Park 2002 34 Lamprey, 2002DIG3 30.6 E 1.6 S––– 1 150Volcans National Park 2003 37 Gray, quest. reply, 2005DIG3 29.5 E 1.5 SNG 1 * Range of informed guess ¹ Key to Causes of Change: DA: Different Area; DD: Data Degraded; DT: Different Technique; NA: New Analysis; NG: New Guess; NP: New population; PL: Population Lost; RS: Repeat Survey (RS´ denotes a repeat survey that is not statistically comparable for reasons such as different season); –––: No Change ² Key to Survey Types: AS: Aerial Sample Count; AT: Aerial Total Count; DC: Dung Count; GD: Genetic Dung Count; GS: Ground Sample Count; GT: Ground Total Count; IG: Informed Guess; IR: Individual Registration; OG: Other Guess. Survey Type is followed by an indicator of survey quality, ranked from 1 to 3 (best to worst). Survey Reliability is keyed A-E (best to worst) ³ PFS: Priority for Future Surveys, ranked from 1 to 5 (highest to lowest). Based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of national range accounted for by the site in question, PFS is a measure of the importance and urgency for future population surveys. All areas of unassessed range have a priority of 1. See Introduction for details on how the PFS is derived. African Elephant Status Report 2007 EASTERN AFRICA | RWANDA 89 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! D !P !P !P !P !P Sake Mugesera Muhazi L.Kivu Bulera Nyungwe NP Rumanyika GR Ibanda GR Akagera- Mutara Mgahinga Gorilla Virunga (Mikeno) Virunga (South) Virunga (Central) Burigi- Biharamulo Volcans Bwindi Uganda Tanzania Rwanda Democratic Republic of Congo Burundi Nyanza KIGALI Nyarugumba Ruhengeri Goma 29°E 29°E 30°E 30°E 3°S 3°S 2°S 2°S 1°S 1°S R w a n d aR w a n d a This map is unprojected. Scale is indicative only. See Appendix IV for protected area abbreviations. Sources: African Elephant Database Digital Chart of the World African Elephant Specialist Group International Boundary Rivers & Lakes !P Towns Protected Areas Input Zones (variable hatching) Elephant Range Known Possible ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Doubtful D Sighting/sign 0 50 10025 km 90 SOMALIA | EASTERN AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 S O M A L I A General Statistics Country area: 637,660 km² Range area (% of country): 4,526 km² (1%) Protected area coverage (% of country): 0% Protected range (% of known and possible range in protected areas): 0% Information Quality Index (IQI): 0.00 CITES Appendix: I Listing Year: 1989 Current Issues Ongoing instability in Somalia has made any conservation assessment work impossible for over 15 years. While a recent report found an abundance of ivory carvings for sale in Mogadishu markets, the ivory is thought to originate from other countries (Amir, 2006). Range Data The presence of elephants in Somalia remains unknown, and only one area, in the far south of the country and adjacent to the border with Kenya, remains categorized as POSSIBLE range. Population Data No new population estimates are available for Somalia. The only estimate remaining, that for Lag Badana Bushbush (Bauer, quest. reply, 1995), has been degraded to the category of OTHER GUESSES, as it is now over 10 years old. Cross-border Movements Elephants in the northeastern corner of Kenya and the southern tip of Somalia once formed a continuous population, and while movement between the two areas may continue, information is lacking. African Elephant Status Report 2007 EASTERN AFRICA | SOMALIA 91 SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEData Category DEFINITE SUMMARY TOTALS FOR SOMALIA 70000Other Guesses 0 0 0 70TOTALS 2006 TOTALS 2002 0 0 70 0 INTERPRETATION OF CHANGES IN ESTIMATES FROM PREVIOUS REPORT SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEDEFINITECause of Change Data Degraded 0 0 -70 +70 TOTAL CHANGE 0 0 -70 +70 AREA OF RANGE COVERED BY EACH DATA CATEGORY (km²) 3,089 1,436 4,526 3,089 1,436 4,526TOTAL Unassessed Range Other Guesses Total RangePossible RangeData Category 92 SOMALIA | EASTERN AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 AREA (km²) INPUT ZONE ESTIMATE 95% C.L. SOURCE NUMBER OF ELEPHANTS SOMALIA: ELEPHANT ESTIMATES LAT.LON. MAP LOCATION TYPE RELIAB. SURVEY DETAILS² YEAR CAUSE OF CHANGE¹ PFS³ 4,500Lag Badana Bushbush 1995 70 Bauer, quest. reply, 1995EIG3 41.7 E 1.1 SDD 1 ¹ Key to Causes of Change: DA: Different Area; DD: Data Degraded; DT: Different Technique; NA: New Analysis; NG: New Guess; NP: New population; PL: Population Lost; RS: Repeat Survey (RS´ denotes a repeat survey that is not statistically comparable for reasons such as different season); –––: No Change ² Key to Survey Types: AS: Aerial Sample Count; AT: Aerial Total Count; DC: Dung Count; GD: Genetic Dung Count; GS: Ground Sample Count; GT: Ground Total Count; IG: Informed Guess; IR: Individual Registration; OG: Other Guess. Survey Type is followed by an indicator of survey quality, ranked from 1 to 3 (best to worst). Survey Reliability is keyed A-E (best to worst) ³ PFS: Priority for Future Surveys, ranked from 1 to 5 (highest to lowest). Based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of national range accounted for by the site in question, PFS is a measure of the importance and urgency for future population surveys. All areas of unassessed range have a priority of 1. See Introduction for details on how the PFS is derived. African Elephant Status Report 2007 EASTERN AFRICA | SOMALIA 93 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! D D !P !P !P !P !P !P !P Wabe Shebele W ebi Shabeelli Juba Genale Tana Borana CHA Malka Mari NP Boni & Dodori Lag Badana Bushbush Babille Somalia Kenya Ethiopia Djibouti Jowhar Baidoa Kismayo MOGADISHU Hargeysa Berbera Harar 40°E 40°E 41°E 41°E 42°E 42°E 43°E 43°E 44°E 44°E 45°E 45°E 46°E 46°E 47°E 47°E 48°E 48°E 49°E 49°E 50°E 50°E 51°E 51°E 52°E 52°E 53°E 53°E 2°S 1°S 1°S 0° 0° 1°N 1°N 2°N 2°N 3°N 3°N 4°N 4°N 5°N 5°N 6°N 6°N 7°N 7°N 8°N 8°N 9°N 9°N 10°N 10°N 11°N 11°N 12°N 12°N S o m a l i aS o m a l i a This map is unprojected. Scale is indicative only. See Appendix IV for protected area abbreviations. Sources: African Elephant Database Digital Chart of the World African Elephant Specialist Group International Boundary Rivers & Lakes !P Towns Protected Areas Input Zones (variable hatching) Elephant Range Known Possible ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Doubtful D Sighting/sign 0 325 650162.5 km 94 SUDAN | EASTERN AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 S U D A N General Statistics Country area: 2,505,810 km² Range area (% of country): 318,239 km² (13%) Protected area coverage (% of country): 4% Protected range (% of known and possible range in protected areas): 15% Information Quality Index (IQI): 0.00 CITES Appendix: I Listing Year: 1989 Current Issues Refugees and internally displaced persons have begun to return to their homes in Southern Sudan after the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement in January 2005. Elephants were reported to have thrived in areas previously depopulated by the war, and the consequences of the return of refugees to areas of elephant range have not been assessed. A recent report identified Sudan as a key entrepôt in the international ivory trade (Martin, 2005a). Ivory from the Democratic Republic of Congo arrives in Khartoum where it is carved and sold, largely to Chinese contract workers, or re-exported. Range Data Large, undisturbed and uninhabited areas of swamp, woodland and grassland could still provide suitable habitat for elephants in southern Sudan, but there remains little direct evidence or updated information on distribution (L.I. Ojok, pers. comm., 2002). The range map for Sudan has nevertheless been considerably altered using data from the Landscan 2002 human population density data set (ORNL/GIST, 2002), resulting in the conversion of several large areas of KNOWN and POSSIBLE range into DOUBTFUL range (see Introduction section for rationale). Using the same data set, information on human settlement patterns previously provided by Gaunt (2002) has been refined and the range map altered accordingly. The resulting range map is similar to the depiction of elephant distribution in the Sudan section of the AED 1995 (Said et al., 1995). Several crosses have been added to the map in areas where recent elephant sightings have been made (Frederick, 2005; L.I. Ojok, pers. comm., 2004). Population Data No quantitative survey work has been undertaken in Sudan since the early 1980s, and any information available on the status of elephants is based on anecdotal observations from local people and humanitarian relief workers. A wet season pilot survey of Nimule National Park conducted in 2000 estimated 156 ± 69 elephants (Marjan et al., 2000), but the higher estimate of 300 from direct sightings made in 2001 (L.I. Ojok, pers. comm., 2002) has been retained from the previous report. Recent visits to Southern (Delfino & Achaye, 2003) and Boma (Deng et al., 2001) National Parks found evidence of elephant presence in both parks, but no attempts were made to estimate elephant numbers. Virtually all of Sudan’s range remains unassessed. Cross-border Movements Elephants may still migrate between southeastern Sudan and western Ethiopia (Deng et al., 2001). Although elephants are thought to have disappeared from Dinder National Park, recent reports suggest that there is movement between that park and the newly created Alatash Wildlife Conservation Area in Ethiopia (Y. Demeke, pers. comm., 2006). There are unverified reports that elephants move into Sudan from Omo National Park in Ethiopia, possibly across the northwest corner of Kenya, and back into Sudan African Elephant Status Report 2007 EASTERN AFRICA | SUDAN 95 SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEData Category DEFINITE SUMMARY TOTALS FOR SUDAN 0280020Informed Guesses 20 0 280 0TOTALS 2006 TOTALS 2002 20 0 280 0 AREA OF RANGE COVERED BY EACH DATA CATEGORY (km²) 779 53,356 54,135 0 264,104 264,104 779 317,460 318,239TOTAL Unassessed Range Informed Guesses Total RangePossible RangeKnown RangeData Category 96 SUDAN | EASTERN AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 AREA (km²) INPUT ZONE ESTIMATE 95% C.L. SOURCE NUMBER OF ELEPHANTS SUDAN: ELEPHANT ESTIMATES LAT.LON. MAP LOCATION TYPE RELIAB. SURVEY DETAILS² YEAR CAUSE OF CHANGE¹ PFS³ 779Nimule National Park 2002 300 L.I. Ojok, pers. comm., 2002DIG3 32.0 E 3.7 N––– 3 ¹ Key to Causes of Change: DA: Different Area; DD: Data Degraded; DT: Different Technique; NA: New Analysis; NG: New Guess; NP: New population; PL: Population Lost; RS: Repeat Survey (RS´ denotes a repeat survey that is not statistically comparable for reasons such as different season); –––: No Change ² Key to Survey Types: AS: Aerial Sample Count; AT: Aerial Total Count; DC: Dung Count; GD: Genetic Dung Count; GS: Ground Sample Count; GT: Ground Total Count; IG: Informed Guess; IR: Individual Registration; OG: Other Guess. Survey Type is followed by an indicator of survey quality, ranked from 1 to 3 (best to worst). Survey Reliability is keyed A-E (best to worst) ³ PFS: Priority for Future Surveys, ranked from 1 to 5 (highest to lowest). Based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of national range accounted for by the site in question, PFS is a measure of the importance and urgency for future population surveys. All areas of unassessed range have a priority of 1. See Introduction for details on how the PFS is derived. African Elephant Status Report 2007 EASTERN AFRICA | SUDAN 97 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 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! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P Tekezze (Setit) Uele Genale Olou Jur Wabe Shebele Bahr El Ghazal Turkana Tana Murle CHA Borana CHA Akobo CHA Tedo CHA Jikao CHA Kidepo GRBire Kpatuos GR Zeraf GR Numatina GR Bili-Uere HR Bengangai GR Bomu SNR Chew Bahr WR Bandingilo GR Tama WR Southern NP Boma NP Shambe GRZemongo FnR Radom NP Andre Felix NP Yata- Ngaya FnR Aouk- Aoukale FnR Dinder NP Gangala- na-Bodio Nimule Gash- Setit Sheraro Shire Chebera- Churchura Manovo Gounda - St Floris Bamingui- Bangoran Mago & Omo Otze Kidepo Valley Garamba Bangassou Mizan Teferi Gambella Dabus Valley Tekezze Valley Uganda Chad Sudan Libya Kenya Ethiopia Eritrea Egypt Central African Republic Democratic Republic of Congo Haicota Juba Malakal Kassala KHARTOUM Bur Sudan Arua Gonder Axum Barentu Rumbek Wau ADDIS ABABA Debre Markos ASMARA Antore Abeche Bangassou Bria Ndele Lodwar Alatash 21°E 21°E 22°E 22°E 23°E 23°E 24°E 24°E 25°E 25°E 26°E 26°E 27°E 27°E 28°E 28°E 29°E 29°E 30°E 30°E 31°E 31°E 32°E 32°E 33°E 33°E 34°E 34°E 35°E 35°E 36°E 36°E 37°E 37°E 38°E 38°E 39°E 39°E 40°E 40°E 3°N 4°N 4°N 5°N 5°N 6°N 6°N 7°N 7°N 8°N 8°N 9°N 9°N 10°N 10°N 11°N 11°N 12°N 12°N 13°N 13°N 14°N 14°N 15°N 15°N 16°N 16°N 17°N 17°N 18°N 18°N 19°N 19°N 20°N 20°N 21°N 21°N 22°N 22°N 23°N 23°N S u d a nS u d a n This map is unprojected. Scale is indicative only. See Appendix IV for protected area abbreviations. Sources: African Elephant Database Digital Chart of the World African Elephant Specialist Group International Boundary Rivers & Lakes !P Towns Protected Areas Input Zones (variable hatching) Elephant Range Known Possible ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Doubtful D Sighting/sign 0 475 950237.5 km Nile Whilte Nile BlueNile 98 SUDAN | EASTERN AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 to reach the Kidepo Game Reserve, from which they could presumably also move to Kidepo Valley National Park in Uganda (Frederick, 2005). Elephants also move between Nimule National Park and the Otze Forest in Uganda (F. Michelmore, pers. comm., 1998). While movements between Numatina Game Reserve in southwestern Sudan and the Central African Republic were reported recently (J. Garang, pers. comm., 2002), it is unlikely that many elephants remain on the western side of the border (T. Sánchez Ariño, pers. comm., 2004). African Elephant Status Report 2007 EASTERN AFRICA | TANZANIA 99 T A N Z A N I A General Statistics Country area: 945,090 km² Range area (% of country): 390,366 km² (48%) Protected area coverage (% of country): 16% Protected range (% of known and possible range in protected areas): 37% Information Quality Index (IQI): 0.54 CITES Appendix: I Listing Year: 1989 Current Issues Expansion of human settlement and farming are reported to be reducing the extent of elephant range, particularly along migratory routes and corridors (Mbano, quest. reply, 2006). Human-elephant conflict is prevalent in many areas, including east of the Selous ecosystem (Malima et al., 2005), west of the Serengeti (Walpole et al., 2004) and east of Ruaha-Rungwa (Mbano, quest. reply, 2006). Tanzania has developed a National Elephant Management Plan (Wildlife Division, 2001) to supersede its 1995 Policy for Management of the African Elephant (Department of Wildlife, 1995). The new plan aims to protect elephant populations through sustainable utilization and community-based conservation schemes to promote benefit sharing, while controlling the numbers of elephants where appropriate (Wildlife Division, 2001). In early 2007, Tanzania submitted a proposal for consideration at the 14th Meeting of the Conference of the Parties to CITES, to transfer its elephant population from Appendix I to Appendix II (Government of the United Republic of Tanzania, 2007). The proposal will be subject to review by a panel of experts, whose recommendations will be taken into account by the Conference of the Parties in June 2007. Range Data Elephants are widely distributed in Tanzania, with major populations in the south and west. The range map has been altered using information from the Landscan 2002 human population density data set (ORNL/ GIST, 2002). Based on this data set, several areas where the estimated human population density is above 15 persons per km² have been categorized as DOUBTFUL range (see Introduction section for rationale). This has resulted in the removal of over 60,000 km² of POSSIBLE range, mainly in the west. An area stretching to the southeast from Tarangire National Park towards Saadani Game Reserve has also been categorized as DOUBTFUL range, based on the Management Plan for Elephants in Tanzania (Wildlife Division, 2001). Information from the same source and from recent surveys (TAWIRI 2007) has been used to categorize an area between Ugalla River Game Reserve and the Katavi-Rukwa and Ruaha-Rungwa ecosystems as KNOWN range. The Ruaha-Rungwa population is connected by a corridor to the range in Mikumi and Udzungwa Mountains National Parks (Mbano, quest. reply, 2006), and this is now shown as KNOWN range. The area of KNOWN range to the east of the Selous-Masasi corridor has been expanded, and an area of DOUBTFUL range has been created around the town of Tunduru (M. Mantheakis, pers. comm., 2005). A number of crosses have been added to the map in and around Mahale Mountains National Park, corresponding to recent sightings or signs of elephant presence (Plumptre, quest. reply, 2005). A cross has also been added to the west of the town of Pangani, in northeastern Tanzania, where elephants are believed to move to and from the Saadani Game Reserve to the south (Foley & Foley, quest. reply, 2006). 100 TANZANIA | EASTERN AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 Other crosses corresponding to recent sightings have been added north of Morogoro, west of Udzungwa Mountains National Park (D. Erickson et al., pers. comm., 2004) and south of Swaga Swaga Game Reserve (Foley & Foley, quest. reply, 2006). Population Data Between August and November 2006, surveys of all of Tanzania’s major elephant populations were conducted by the Tanzania Wildlife Research Institute (TAWIRI 2007). An aerial sample count of the Selous ecosystem, including the Selous Game Reserve, Mikumi National Park, Kilombero Game Controlled Area and surrounding areas, returned an overall estimate of 70,406 ± 24,843 (TAWIRI 2007). This estimate replaces estimates from methodologically comparable surveys conducted in 2002 in the Selous Game Reserve (39,907 ± 11,464) and surrounding areas (17,979 ± 8,908); the Mikumi National Park (1,144 ± 923) and its environs (578 ± 594); and the Kilombero Game Controlled Area (6,203 ± 4,639) (TAWIRI 2007). An aerial sample count conducted in the Selous-Niassa corridor in 2006 returned an estimate of 3,330 ± 1,424. However, the north of the area surveyed overlaps with the Selous ecosystem census zone, and all the elephants counted in the Selous-Niassa corridor were in fact seen in the area of overlap (TAWIRI 2007). As the Selous estimate is therefore likely to include all the elephants estimated in the Selous-Niassa corridor, an estimate of zero has been entered in place of the estimate of 2,486 ± 937 featured in the previous report (CIMU, 2001). This change has been categorized as a NEW ANALYSIS of previous data. An estimate of 35,409 ± 11,507 from an aerial sample count of the Ruaha-Rungwa ecosystem (TAWIRI 2007) has been used to replace estimates from a methodologically comparable survey of Ruaha National Park (11,827 ± 4,161), Rungwa Game Reserve (10,005 ± 3,849) and surrounding areas (2,271 ± 1,520) (CIMU 2002). Aerial sample count estimates for Katavi National Park (4,102 ± 1,615), Rukwa Game Reserve (1,200 ± 902) and surrounding areas (915 ± 606) from a 2006 survey (TAWIRI, 2007) replace methodologically comparable estimates of 4,897 ± 4,465 for Katavi National Park, 263 ± 339 for Rukwa Game Reserve and 591 ± 804 for the surrounding areas. Aerial surveys conducted in and around Moyowosi, Kigosi and Ugalla River Game Reserves included previously unsurveyed areas outside the game reserves (TAWIRI 2007). An estimate of 9,541 ± 3,657 for Moyowosi-Kigosi and surrounding areas to the north replaces a 2000 estimate of 2,861 ± 956 (H. Frederick, pers. comm., 2003). The difference in the estimates may be partly explained by the fact that the 2006 survey covered a considerably larger area. The aerial sample count estimate for Ugalla River Game Reserve (4,133 ± 1,778) replaces a 1999 aerial survey estimate of 1,911 ± 1,313 (S. Mduma, pers. comm., 2002b). The estimate of 1,353 ± 857 for the area to the southeast of Ugalla River Game Reserve is a new entry in the table of estimates, while the estimate of 4,635 ± 3,028 for the Sagara-Nyamangoma area replaces an INFORMED GUESS of between 800 and 1,600 for an overlapping area comprising the Niensi and Luganzo hunting blocks (D. Hurt, pers. comm., 2002). Two aerial total counts have been conducted in the Serengeti ecosystem since the AESR 2002. Both surveys included areas that had not been covered for many years, such as the Maswa Game Reserve and parts of the Ngorongoro Conservation Area. Estimates for the Serengeti National Park were 1,806 in 2003 (CIMU, 2003b) and 1,472 in 2006 (TAWIRI 2007). The latter replaces an estimate of 1,631 from an aerial total count conducted in 2000 (TAWIRI, 2000b). The West Loliondo Game Controlled Area, which was included in the Serengeti survey zone in the AESR 2002, was estimated to have 422 elephants in 2003 African Elephant Status Report 2007 EASTERN AFRICA | TANZANIA 101 SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEData Category DEFINITE SUMMARY TOTALS FOR TANZANIA 0003,167Aerial or Ground Total Counts 027,93727,937105,594Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts 3001,413055Informed Guesses 600000Other Guesses 108,816 27,937 29,350 900TOTALS 2006 TOTALS 2002 92,453 17,231 18,501 2,285 INTERPRETATION OF CHANGES IN ESTIMATES FROM PREVIOUS REPORT SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEDEFINITECause of Change Repeat Survey +18,138 +7,140 +7,279 -513 New Population -258 +925 +943 0 Different Technique -1,119 +692 +640 -872 Different Area -1,986 +2,984 +3,042 0 New Guess +814 0 0 0 New Analysis +773 -1,035 -1,055 0 TOTAL CHANGE +16,363 +10,706 +10,849 -1,385 AREA OF RANGE COVERED BY EACH DATA CATEGORY (km²) 29,290 205,092 6,151 6,153 74,627 321,313 208 11,476 0 0 57,370 69,053 29,498 216,567 6,151 6,153 131,997 390,366TOTAL Unassessed Range Other Guesses Informed Guesses Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts Aerial or Ground Total Counts Total RangePossible RangeKnown RangeData Category 102 TANZANIA | EASTERN AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 AREA (km²) INPUT ZONE ESTIMATE 95% C.L. SOURCE NUMBER OF ELEPHANTS TANZANIA: ELEPHANT ESTIMATES LAT.LON. MAP LOCATION TYPE RELIAB. SURVEY DETAILS² YEAR CAUSE OF CHANGE¹ PFS³ 821 7,295Burigi-Biharamulo Ecosystem 2000 761 S. Mduma, pers. comm., 2002b BAS3 31.3 E 2.4 S––– 2 6,050Inyonga Game Conservation Area 2002 600 G. Angelides, pers. comm., 2003 EOG3 32.8 E 6.8 S––– 2 1,615 4,272Katavi National Park 2006 4,102 TAWIRI, 2007BAS2 31.3 E 6.9 SRS 3 606 3,739Katavi-Rukwa (Outside) 2006 915 TAWIRI, 2007BAS2 31.3 E 6.9 SRS 3 499Kilimanjaro Forest Reserve 2003 793 Munishi & Maganga, 2003DIG3 37.2 E 3.0 SDT 3 1,368Lake Manyara National Park 2006 36 TAWIRI, 2007AAT3 35.9 E 3.6 SDT 3 6,909Longido Game Conservation Area 2002 70 CIMU, 2003aAAT3 36.5 E 2.8 S––– 3 1,019Makao Hunting Block 2006 0 TAWIRI, 2007AAT3 34.7 E 3.5 SDT 2,200Maswa Game Reserve 2006 158 TAWIRI, 2007AAT3 34.6 E 3.1 SRS´ 3 3,509Mkomazi Game Reserve 2005 41 Omondi & Bitok, 2005AAT3 38.3 E 4.2 SRS 3 3,657 20,262Moyowosi-Kigosi Game Reserve 2006 9,541 TAWIRI, 2007BAS3 31.3 E 4.2 SDA 2 274Ngorongoro Crater Conservation Area 2006 0 Renaud et al., 2006EOG3 35.6 E 3.2 SNG 4,275Ngorongoro South Conservation Area 2006 0 TAWIRI, 2007AAT3 35.1 E 3.4 SRS´ 100* 2,223Piti East Hunting Block 2002 200 D. Hurt, pers. comm., 2002DIG3 33.3 E 7.1 S––– 3 11,507 45,800Ruaha-Rungwa Ecosystem 2006 35,409 TAWIRI, 2007BAS2 34.4 E 6.8 SRS 2 400Rubondo Island National Park 2002 20 M. Borner, pers. comm., 2003DIG3 31.8 E 2.3 S––– 3 902 3,666Rukwa Game Reserve 2006 1,200 TAWIRI, 2007BAS2 31.9 E 7.2 SRS 3 200* 3,658Rungwa South Hunting Block 2002 400 D. Hurt, pers. comm., 2002DIG3 33.6 E 7.6 S––– 3 2,753Saadani Game Reserve 1998 55 S. Mduma, pers. comm., 2002b DIG3 38.8 E 6.0 S––– 3 3,028 12,726Sagara-Nyamagoma 2006 4,635 TAWIRI, 2007BAS3 31.2 E 5.2 SDT 2 24,843 81,046Selous Ecosystem 2006 70,406 TAWIRI, 2007BAS3 37.5 E 8.8 SRS 1 107 14,082Selous-Masasi Corridor 2000 1,076 S. Mduma, pers. comm., 2002a BAS2 37.9 E 10.8 S––– 2 0 9,096Selous-Niassa Corridor 2000 0 TAWIRI, 2000BAS2 36.6 E 11.1 SNA 14,763Serengeti National Park 2006 1,472 TAWIRI, 2007AAT3 34.8 E 2.3 SRS 2 2,726Tarangire National Park 2006 1,119 TAWIRI, 2007AAT3 36.1 E 4.1 SDT 3 6,708Tarangire (Outside) 2006 183 TAWIRI, 2007AAT3 36.3 E 4.2 SDT 3 1,778 4,778Ugalla River Game Reserve 2006 4,133 TAWIRI, 2007BAS3 31.9 E 5.8 SRS 3 837 5,498Ugalla River (Outside) 2006 1,353 TAWIRI, 2007BAS3 32.6 E 6.1 SNP 3 422West Loliondo Game Controlled Area 2006 88 TAWIRI, 2007AAT3 35.3 E 2.1 SRS 4 * Range of informed guess ¹ Key to Causes of Change: DA: Different Area; DD: Data Degraded; DT: Different Technique; NA: New Analysis; NG: New Guess; NP: New population; PL: Population Lost; RS: Repeat Survey (RS´ denotes a repeat survey that is not statistically comparable for reasons such as different season); –––: No Change ² Key to Survey Types: AS: Aerial Sample Count; AT: Aerial Total Count; DC: Dung Count; GD: Genetic Dung Count; GS: Ground Sample Count; GT: Ground Total Count; IG: Informed Guess; IR: Individual Registration; OG: Other Guess. Survey Type is followed by an indicator of survey quality, ranked from 1 to 3 (best to worst). Survey Reliability is keyed A-E (best to worst) ³ PFS: Priority for Future Surveys, ranked from 1 to 5 (highest to lowest). Based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of national range accounted for by the site in question, PFS is a measure of the importance and urgency for future population surveys. All areas of unassessed range have a priority of 1. See Introduction for details on how the PFS is derived. African Elephant Status Report 2007 EASTERN AFRICA | TANZANIA 103 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 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D D D D D D D D D D D D D D DD D D !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P!P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P G reatR uaha Tana Wembere L.Malawi L.Mweru L. Rukwa L.Tanganyka Eyasi Sake Natron Muhazi Magadi L.Kivu Masinga Naivasha Nakuru L. Victoria Swaga Swaga GR Taita Hills NlR Nyungwe NP Kalinzu FR Bangweulu GMA Kaputa GMA Kilombero CA Lukwati GR Udzungwa Mountains NP Selous GR Mikumi NP Ruaha NP Rungwa GR Mkungunero GR Kizigo GR Mahale Mountains NP Muhesi GR Arusha NP Tsavo West NP Chyulu Hills NlR Grumeti GR Tsavo East NP Ikorongo GR Rumanyika GR Ibanda GR Sagara- Nyamagoma r Kilimanjaro Musalangu Lake Manyara Ngorongoro Crater Ngorongoro South Maswa Inyonga Longido Rukwa Katavi Ugalla River (Outside) Cabo Delgado Mt Kenya Lamu AmboseliSerengeti Quirimbas Makao Rungwa South Piti East Aberdare Chanjuzi North Kitui Akagera- Mutara Selous- Masasi Selous- Niassa Lavushi Manda Kafinde North Luangwa Niassa Isangano Vwaza Marsh Nyika Nsumbu Ugalla River Moyowosi- Kigosi Tsavo (Outside) Selous Mweru wa Ntipa West Loliondo Mukungule South Kitui Ruaha- Rungwa Katavi-Rukwa (Outside) Shimba HillsMkomazi Tarangire Tsavo Saadani Virunga Arabuko Sokoke Rubondo Island Burigi- Biharamulo Nguruman Masai Mara Masai Mara(Outside) Bwindi Luawata Sango Bay Mwea Mau Tarangire (Outside) Zambia Uganda Tanzania Rwanda Mozambique Malawi Kenya Democratic Republic of Congo Burundi Mwanza Nyanza KIGALI Itigi Tunduru Tabora Iringa Morogoro Tanga Mbarara DAR ES SALAAM Dodoma Zanzibar Arusha Ruhengeri Mzuzu Goma Pangani Mombasa Malindi NAIROBI 30°E 30°E 31°E 31°E 32°E 32°E 33°E 33°E 34°E 34°E 35°E 35°E 36°E 36°E 37°E 37°E 38°E 38°E 39°E 39°E 40°E 40°E 12°S 12°S 11°S 11°S 10°S 10°S 9°S 9°S 8°S 8°S 7°S 7°S 6°S 6°S 5°S 5°S 4°S 4°S 3°S 3°S 2°S 2°S 1°S 1°S T a n z a n i aT a n z a n i a This map is unprojected. Scale is indicative only. See Appendix IV for protected area abbreviations. Sources: African Elephant Database Digital Chart of the World African Elephant Specialist Group International Boundary Rivers & Lakes !P Towns Protected Areas Input Zones (variable hatching) Elephant Range Known Possible ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Doubtful D Sighting/sign 0 290 580145 km 104 TANZANIA | EASTERN AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 (Conservation Information and Monitoring Unit, 2003b), but the more recent estimate of 88 from the 2006 survey is shown in the table of estimates instead. The Maswa Game Reserve and the southern part of Ngorongoro Conservation Area were also combined into a single survey zone in the AESR 2002, which featured a 1992 aerial total count estimate of 315 for these areas (B.P. Farm, pers. comm., 1995). The 2003 and 2006 total counts, conducted as part of the Serengeti survey, produced estimates of 132 and 158 respectively for the Maswa Game Reserve, and the latter figure is shown on the table of estimates. No elephants were seen in Ngorongoro South in either of the two recent surveys, and an estimate of zero therefore appears on the table for this area. The fluctuation in elephant numbers in the Serengeti ecosystem is likely to be influenced by elephant movements into the Masai Mara National Reserve in neighbouring Kenya. Dry season aerial total counts of the Tarangire Ecosystem, conducted in 2004 (Conservation Information and Monitoring Unit, 2004) and 2006 (TAWIRI 2007), included, for the first time in many years, the Lake Manyara National Park in its entirety. Parts of Manyara were previously covered as part of the Tarangire ecosystem, but in this report Lake Manyara features as a separate entry in the table of estimates. The estimates of 1,119 for Tarangire National Park and of 183 for the surrounding areas, are from the 2006 survey and replace a 1999 aerial sample count estimate of 2,855 ± 1,961 (Tanzania Wildlife Conservation Monitoring, 2000a). The combined estimate for the entire Tarangire ecosystem in 2004 was 1,880 (Conservation Information and Monitoring Unit, 2004). The Mkomazi Game Reserve was covered as part of a 2005 transboundary aerial total count of the Tsavo ecosystem (Omondi & Bitok, 2005). The resulting estimate of 41 replaces a figure of 63 from a methodologically comparable survey conducted in 2002 (Omondi et al., 2002d). An estimate of 759 for the western half of the Kilimanjaro Forest Reserve (Munishi & Maganga, 2003) replaces a 1990 dung count estimate of 220 (Tanzania Wildlife Conservation Monitoring, 1992). The new estimate is based on a reconnaissance survey, and although confidence intervals were provided, it has been categorized as an INFORMED GUESS due to the low sampling intensity and incomplete description of methods employed. A dung count of the thickets around the town of Itigi to the north of the Ruaha-Rungwa ecosystem suggested a density of between 0.38 and 0.48 elephants per km² based (Shemdoe, 2004). The survey did not, however, produce an estimate of elephant numbers, and could not be included in the table. Part of this area was covered in the Ruaha-Rungwa aerial survey mentioned above. Other estimates shown on the table have been retained from the previous report. The estimate in the DEFINITE category for Tanzania has increased by over 16,350, largely as a result of new estimates from methodologically comparable surveys. Estimates in the PROBABLE and POSSIBLE categories have increased by over 10,700 each, largely due to lower precision of repeated surveys and to surveys covering different areas, as well as to the inclusion of estimates from previously unsurveyed areas. The estimate in the SPECULATIVE category has decreased by nearly 1,400, as guesses and degraded estimates have been replaced by higher quality estimates. Recent surveys of previously unsurveyed areas have shown that significant numbers of elephants remain outside national parks and game reserves in Tanzania. Although over 60% of the country’s estimated elephant range is covered by good quality counts, over a third of the estimated range remains unassessed. African Elephant Status Report 2007 EASTERN AFRICA | TANZANIA 105 Cross-border Movements Elephants move between the Selous Game Reserve and the Niassa Game Reserve in northern Mozambique along corridors connecting the two ecosystems (Mpanduji et al., 2002). The elephants in the Longido-West Kilimanjaro area constitute a single transboundary population with the Amboseli ecosystem in Kenya. Between 150 and 400 elephants are found on the Tanzania side of the border at any one time (F. Nelson, pers. comm., 2003). Other transboundary populations shared with Kenya are those in the Serengeti-Mara and Tsavo-Mkomazi ecosystems. There may also be some movement of elephants between Ibanda Game Reserve in the northwest of the country and Akagera National Park in Rwanda, although refugee settlement is believed to have restricted passage routes in recent years. 106 UGANDA | EASTERN AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 U G A N D A General Statistics Country area: 236,040 km² Range area (% of country): 15,148 km² (5%) Protected area coverage (% of country): 8% Protected range (% of known and possible range in protected areas): 76% Information Quality Index (IQI): 0.49 CITES Appendix: I Listing Year: 1989 Current Issues Most of Uganda’s elephant populations are fragmented and surrounded by cultivation. As a result, humanelephant conflict is common. Uganda is currently believed to be an important entrepôt for the international trafficking of ivory from the neighbouring Democratic Republic of Congo (TRAFFIC, 2004). Range Data Elephants in Uganda are largely confined to protected areas along the west of the country, where forests alternate with savanna. Forest-savanna hybrids are believed to occur in the southwest (Plumptre, quest. reply, 2005). There are three major populations in the country, namely in the Queen Elizabeth Conservation Area, Murchison Falls Conservation Area and Kidepo Valley National Park. No elephants are thought to remain on the Ugandan side of Mount Elgon. A number of changes have been made to the range map based on information from various sources. In Kidepo Valley, KNOWN range has been extended eastwards based on the results of a recent survey (Rwetsiba & Wanyama, 2005). KNOWN range has also been extended northward from Murchison Falls National Park all the way up to East Madi Wildlife Reserve, to which elephants from Murchison Falls move on occasion (Keigwin, quest. reply, 2005; R.H. Lamprey, pers. comm., 2006). The presence of elephants in the Rwenzori Mountains has been confirmed by Keigwin (2005), and the whole national park is now shown as KNOWN range. Elephants from Queen Elizabeth National Park move to Kalinzu and Kashoya-Kitomi Forest Reserves (Keigwin, quest. reply, 2005; R.H. Lamprey, pers. comm., 2006), and these areas are shown as KNOWN range. A small remnant population is found in the Katonga Game Reserve, east of Kibale National Park. This population is thought to have been once part of a larger population extending to Kibale National Park, but is now isolated (M. Polanski, pers. comm., 2004), and its range is also shown as KNOWN. Elephant range in the Sango Bay area in the south has been modified with data from the Landscan 2002 human population density data set (ORNL/GIST, 2002), with part of the range area being categorized as DOUBTFUL (see Introduction section for rationale). Population Data Systematic surveys of all major populations in Uganda were conducted between 2004 and 2005. An aerial sample count conducted in Murchison Falls Conservation Area returned an estimate of 564 ± 635 (Rwetsiba & Wanyama, 2005), and this replaces an estimate of 692 from a 2002 aerial total count (Rwetsiba et al., 2002). The wide confidence limits around the estimate are explained by the fact that the 2005 sample count was not stratified, thus resulting in wide variation of elephant sightings between transects. The estimate shown for Queen Elizabeth Conservation Area, obtained in a 2004 aerial sample count replaces a 2002 aerial total count estimate of 998 (Rwetsiba et al., 2002). An aerial total count estimate of 454 for Kidepo Valley National Park (Rwetsiba & Wanyama, 2005) replaces an INFORMED GUESS of 374 (D. Aleper, pers. comm., 2002). Finally, an estimate of 393 ± 210 from a 2005 dung count of Kibale African Elephant Status Report 2007 EASTERN AFRICA | UGANDA 107 SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEData Category DEFINITE SUMMARY TOTALS FOR UGANDA 000454Aerial or Ground Total Counts 01,6071,6071,868Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts 021037815Other Dung Counts 012000Informed Guesses 300000Other Guesses 2,337 1,985 1,937 300TOTALS 2006 TOTALS 2002 2,064 0 210 460 INTERPRETATION OF CHANGES IN ESTIMATES FROM PREVIOUS REPORT SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEDEFINITECause of Change New Population 0 0 +8 +40 Different Technique +273 +1,985 +1,719 -200 TOTAL CHANGE +273 +1,985 +1,727 -160 AREA OF RANGE COVERED BY EACH DATA CATEGORY (km²) 914 6,318 794 1,138 1,634 3,922 14,720 0 364 0 0 0 64 428 914 6,682 794 1,138 1,634 3,986 15,148TOTAL Unassessed Range Other Guesses Informed Guesses Other Dung Counts Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts Aerial or Ground Total Counts Total RangePossible RangeKnown RangeData Category 108 UGANDA | EASTERN AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 AREA (km²) INPUT ZONE ESTIMATE 95% C.L. SOURCE NUMBER OF ELEPHANTS UGANDA: ELEPHANT ESTIMATES LAT.LON. MAP LOCATION TYPE RELIAB. SURVEY DETAILS² YEAR CAUSE OF CHANGE¹ PFS³ 336Bwindi Impenetrable Forest National Park 2002 30 A. McNeilage, pers. comm., 2003 DIG3 29.7 E 1.0 S––– 2 10* 214Katonga Game Reserve 2003 20 M. Polanski, pers. comm., 2004 EOG3 30.8 E 0.2 NNP 2 210 795Kibale National Park 2005 393 Wanyama, 2005CDC3 30.4 E 0.5 NDT 2 1,442Kidepo Valley National Park 2005 454 Rwetsiba & Wanyama, 2005AAT3 33.8 E 3.8 NDT 2 67Mgahinga Gorilla National Park 2003 10 Gray, quest. reply, 2005DIG3 29.6 E 1.4 SNP 3 635 4,064Murchison Falls Conservation Area 2005 516 Rwetsiba & Wanyama, 2005BAS3 31.8 E 2.2 NDT 1 200Otze Forest 1998 200 F. Michelmore, pers. comm., 1998 EOG3 31.9 E 3.7 N––– 2 1,476 2,148Queen Elizabeth Conservation Area 2006 2,959 Freeman, 2006BAS2 30.0 E 0.2 SDT 2 929Rwenzori National Park 2003 20 Keigwin, quest. reply, 2005EOG3 30.0 E 0.4 NNP 2 305Sango Bay 1998 30 F. Michelmore, pers. comm., 1998 EOG3 31.7 E 0.9 S––– 2 195Semliki National Park 1998 30 F. Michelmore, pers. comm., 1998 EOG3 30.0 E 0.8 N––– 2 784Toro (Semliki Valley) Wildlife Reserve 1998 80 F. Michelmore, pers. comm., 1998 DIG3 30.4 E 1.0 N––– 2 * Range of informed guess ¹ Key to Causes of Change: DA: Different Area; DD: Data Degraded; DT: Different Technique; NA: New Analysis; NG: New Guess; NP: New population; PL: Population Lost; RS: Repeat Survey (RS´ denotes a repeat survey that is not statistically comparable for reasons such as different season); –––: No Change ² Key to Survey Types: AS: Aerial Sample Count; AT: Aerial Total Count; DC: Dung Count; GD: Genetic Dung Count; GS: Ground Sample Count; GT: Ground Total Count; IG: Informed Guess; IR: Individual Registration; OG: Other Guess. Survey Type is followed by an indicator of survey quality, ranked from 1 to 3 (best to worst). Survey Reliability is keyed A-E (best to worst) ³ PFS: Priority for Future Surveys, ranked from 1 to 5 (highest to lowest). Based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of national range accounted for by the site in question, PFS is a measure of the importance and urgency for future population surveys. All areas of unassessed range have a priority of 1. See Introduction for details on how the PFS is derived. African Elephant Status Report 2007 EASTERN AFRICA | UGANDA 109 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! D DD D DD D !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P Uele AlbertNile L. Edw ard L. Victoria L. A lbert KashoyaKitomi FR Kidepo GR Kalinzu FR Rumanyika GR Ibanda GR Kyambura WR Rwenzori Mountains NP Mount Elgon NP Gangala- na-Bodio Virunga (North) Katonga Serengeti Nimule Akagera- Mutara Rwenzori Mgahinga Gorilla (Mikeno) Queen Elizabeth Virunga (Central) Volcans Masai Mara Bwindi Sango Bay Kibale Semliki Mt Elgon Toro Murchison Falls Otze Kidepo Valley Garamba Uganda Tanzania Sudan Rwanda Kenya Democratic Republic of Congo Arua Nyarugumba Mbarara Entebbe KAMPALA Jinja Fort Portal Tororo Gulu Ruhengeri Kisumu 30°E 30°E 31°E 31°E 32°E 32°E 33°E 33°E 34°E 34°E 35°E 35°E 1°S 1°S 0° 0° 1°N 1°N 2°N 2°N 3°N 3°N 4°N 4°N U g a n d aU g a n d a This map is unprojected. Scale is indicative only. See Appendix IV for protected area abbreviations. Sources: African Elephant Database Digital Chart of the World African Elephant Specialist Group International Boundary Rivers & Lakes !P Towns Protected Areas Input Zones (variable hatching) Elephant Range Known Possible ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Doubtful D Sighting/sign 0 140 28070 km 110 UGANDA | EASTERN AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 National Park (Wanyama, 2005) replaces an INFORMED GUESS of 100 (Cochrane, cited in Naughton et al., 1999). Two guesses for previously unsurveyed areas, Rwenzori and Mgahinga Gorilla National Parks, appear on the table of estimates. The Mgahinga estimate was obtained from a dung point transect survey conducted in 2003, which returned an estimate of 89 elephants for the entire Virunga-Volcans range, thus including, in addition to Mgahinga, the Mikeno sector of Virunga National Park in the Democratic Republic of Congo and the Parc National des Volcans in Rwanda (Owiunji et al., 2004). This estimate has been split between the three parks in proportion to their area, giving an estimate of 10 for Mgahinga. The number of elephants in the DEFINITE category for Uganda has decreased by 465, while the numbers in the PROBABLE and POSSIBLE categories have increased by about 2,000 each. These changes are due to the lower precision of recent aerial sample counts, compared to the aerial total counts featured in the previous report. About half of Uganda’s elephant range is covered by good quality estimates. The remaining range is split between areas covered by guesses and unsurveyed areas. The latter may be important as dispersal areas for Uganda’s major elephant populations, but are not likely to contain large numbers of uncounted elephants. Cross-border Movements It is believed that movement of elephants from Virunga National Park into Queen Elizabeth National Park may have increased in recent years as a result of armed conflict in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (Keigwin, 2001). There is also evidence of elephant movement between Toro/Semliki and the northern sector of Virunga National Park in Democratic Republic of Congo (F. Michelmore, pers. comm., 1998), as well as between Kidepo National Park and adjacent range in southern Sudan (D. Aleper, pers. comm., 2002) and, sporadically, into northwestern Kenya (Thouless et al., 2003). Elephants in Mgahinga Gorilla National Park move across the borders of Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo (Gray, quest. reply, 2005). Movement between the Kenyan and Ugandan sides of Mount Elgon is unlikely, however, as elephants have not been seen on the Ugandan side for many years (F. Michelmore, pers. comm., 1998). African Elephant Status Report 2007 SOUTHERN AFRICA | REGIONAL OVERVIEW 111 S O U T H E R N A F R I C A R E G I O N A L O V E R V I E W General Statistics Total Area: 5,973,020 km² Range area (% of region): 1,305,140 km² (28%) Protected area coverage (% of region): 12% Protected range (% of known and possible range in protected areas): 28% Information Quality Index (IQI): 0.48 Current Issues Southern Africa holds the largest elephant populations on the continent, and many of the management challenges associated with high elephant densities in large populations are common to a number of countries in the region. As elephant numbers continue to increase in the region’s largest populations, the debate on the need for management action has continued in a number of countries, particularly in South Africa. In 2004, the Southern African Range States embarked on a process to develop a regional strategy for the management of elephants, and a draft strategy document was produced following a workshop held in 2005. The draft strategy aims to foster regional cooperation in elephant management and monitoring, calling for coordinated surveys across international boundaries. It is noteworthy that only three countries in Africa fund their regular elephant survey programmes out of their national budgets, and all three – Botswana, Namibia and South Africa – are in Southern Africa. Every other Range State in the region, and indeed on the continent, depends on external aid for elephant survey work. Four countries in the region, namely Botswana (DG Ecological Consulting, 2003b), Namibia (Ministry of Environment and Tourism, 2005c), South Africa (South African National Parks, 2004b) and Zambia (Ministry of Tourism, Environment and Natural Resources, 2003) have recently developed or updated their respective national elephant management policies. The development of transfrontier conservation areas has continued in Southern Africa. A Memorandum of Understanding was signed in late 2006 by Ministers from five Southern African countries to facilitate the development the Kavango-Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area (KAZA TFCA). An area the size of Italy which holds nearly half of the continental elephant population, the KAZA TFCA spans some of the most important populations in Angola, Botswana, Namibia, Zambia and Zimbabwe. The international sale of 50 tons of legally acquired ivory from Botswana, South Africa and Namibia, approved in 2002 at the 12th Meeting of the Conference of the Parties to CITES held in Santiago, Chile, was still pending at the time of writing, awaiting the finalization of an agreed baseline of data from the CITES MIKE Programme. At the 13th Meeting of the Conference of the Parties, held in Bangkok, Thailand, in 2004, a proposal was approved to allow Namibia non-commercial trade in individually marked and certified ekipas, a type of traditional ivory amulet (CITES, 2004). In January 2007, a number of proposals were submitted for consideration at the 14th Meeting of the Conference of the Parties to CITES in The Hague, The Netherlands, in June 2007. Botswana and Namibia submitted a proposal to maintain their elephant populations, as well as those of South Africa and Zimbabwe, in CITES Appendix II, and to establish annual export quotas for these four countries to trade 112 REGIONAL OVERVIEW | SOUTHERN AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 in raw ivory to approved trading partners (Government of Botswana & Government of Namibia, 2007). Botswana submitted an additional proposal to be allowed to trade in hides and leather goods for commercial purposes; to be allocated an annual export quota of up to eight tons of Government-owned raw ivory to approved destinations; and to conduct a one-off sale of no more than 40 tons of raw ivory stocks to similarly approved destinations (Government of Botswana, 2007). At the same time, Kenya and Mali submitted a proposal to bar any international trade in raw or worked ivory from any of the above four Southern African countries for a period of 20 years, except for raw ivory from hunting trophies for non-commercial purposes and the export of ivory pursuant to the conditional sale of government-owned ivory stocks from Botswana, Namibia and South Africa agreed at the 12th Meeting of the Conference of the Parties to CITES (Government of Kenya & Government of Mali, 2007). Range Data Savanna elephants (Loxodonta africana africana) predominate throughout the region, although small populations of forest elephants are found in the Angolan exclave of Cabinda and perhaps also in northwestern Angola. With an estimated total elephant range spanning over 1.3 million km², Southern Africa is the region with the largest elephant range area, and accounts for 39% of the continental total. While this is 22% less than the region’s estimated range area in the AESR 2002, the difference is largely a result of better information, rather than a recent reduction in actual elephant range. Southern Africa is the region with the smallest proportion of elephant range in protected areas (28%). The quality of range data varies considerably across the region. Although three-quarters of the range information is less than 10 years old, only 53% of total range currently falls within the KNOWN category. Although elephant range is expanding in Botswana and spreading into neighbouring countries such as Angola and Namibia, the overall range area may decline in future as more detailed information is obtained, particularly from Angola and Mozambique, where range data are least reliable, but which together account for 57% of the regional range estimate. Population Data Southern Africa is the region with the highest overall quality of elephant information, as measured by the IQI. There is, however, wide variation amongst countries, with nearly perfect information available for Swaziland, South Africa, Zimbabwe and Botswana, but virtually no reliable information for Angola. This report features 96 new estimates for Southern Africa, 84 of which originate from systematic counts. Overall, elephant population estimates are available for some 690,000 km², or 53% of estimated elephant range in Southern Africa, with estimates from systematic surveys covering two-thirds of that area. Some countries such as South Africa, Botswana and Zimbabwe have complete coverage, in contrast with Angola, where estimates are only available for 5% of estimated elephant range. Southern Africa also holds by far the largest number of elephants on the continent. At nearly 321,000, the number of DEFINITE plus PROBABLE elephants, is nearly twice as high as the corresponding number for Eastern Africa, the next most populous region with about 166,500 DEFINITE plus PROBABLE elephants. Over three-quarters of the regional DEFINITE plus PROBABLE population in Southern Africa occur in just two countries, namely Botswana and Zimbabwe. These two countries together also account for nearly 47% of the continental DEFINITE plus PROBABLE population. The estimated number of DEFINITE elephants in Southern Africa has increased by over 51,000 (19%) compared to the previous report, largely as a result of higher estimates from recent, methodologically comparable surveys in Botswana, Namibia, South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe. The total number of elephants estimated in such surveys (namely from those sites marked REPEAT SURVEY or RS in the national African Elephant Status Report 2007 SOUTHERN AFRICA | REGIONAL OVERVIEW 113 SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEData Category DEFINITE SUMMARY TOTALS FOR SOUTHERN AFRICA Aerial or Ground Total Counts 18,431 0 0 0 Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts 278,283 23,137 23,137 0 Other Dung Counts 27 49 9 0 Informed Guesses 977 0 1,588 201 Other Guesses 0 0 0 9,552 TOTAL 2006 297,718 23,186 24,734 9,753 TOTALS 2002 246,592 23,722 26,098 7,508 INTERPRETATION OF CHANGES IN ESTIMATES FROM PREVIOUS REPORT SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEDEFINITECause of Change Repeat Survey +47,808 +105 -137 0 New Population +300 -48 +181 0 Different Technique +448 +167 -709 -44 Different Area +2,697 -951 -94 0 New Guess -73 0 +85 +1,442 New Analysis +26 -9 -11 -67 Population Lost 0 0 -28 0 Data Degraded -79 +201 -651 +914 TOTAL CHANGE +51,126 +2,245-1,364-536 AREA OF RANGE COVERED BY EACH DATA CATEGORY (km²) 43,478 397,261 482 14,801 134,788 102,833 693,643 0 23,300 0 10,988 69,029 508,179 611,497 43,478 420,561 482 25,789 203,817 611,012 1,305,140TOTAL Unassessed Range Other Guesses Informed Guesses Other Dung Counts Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts Aerial or Ground Total Counts Total RangePossible RangeKnown RangeData Category 114 REGIONAL OVERVIEW | SOUTHERN AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 COUNTRY DEFINITE RANGE AREA (km²)SPECULATIVEPROBABLE POSSIBLE SOUTHERN AFRICA: COUNTRY AND REGIONAL TOTALS & DATA QUALITY PFS² % OF REGIONAL RANGE % OF RANGE ASSESSED IQI¹ ELEPHANT NUMBERS Angola 818 801 60851 406,946 131 5 0.03 Botswana 133,829 20,829 020,829 100,265 28 99 0.87 Malawi 185 323 1,587632 7,538 31 89 0.17 Mozambique 14,079 2,396 6,9802,633 334,786 126 77 0.48 Namibia 12,531 3,276 03,296 146,921 211 55 0.46 South Africa 17,847 0 22638 30,455 22 100 0.96 Swaziland 31 0 00 50 50 100 1.00 Zambia 16,562 5,948 8135,908 201,247 115 61 0.47 Zimbabwe 84,416 7,033 2917,367 76,931 26 99 0.91 297,718 23,186 24,734 9,753 1,305,140TOTAL* 139 53 0.48 * Note that totals for the Definite, Probable and Possible categories are derived by pooling the variances of individual estimates, as described under the Data Types and Categorization section. As a result, totals do not necessarily match the simple sum of the entries within a given category. ¹ IQI: Information Quality Index. This index quantifies overall data quality at the national and regional levels based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of assessed elephant range (i.e. range for which estimates are available). The IQI ranges from zero (no reliable information) to one (perfect information). See the Introduction section for a detailed explanation of how the IQI is calculated. ² PFS: Priority for Future Surveys, ranked from 1 to 5 (highest to lowest). Based on the IQI and the proportion of continental range accounted for by the country in question, the PFS is a measure of the importance and urgency for future population surveys, particularly in areas of unassessed range and areas not surveyed in the last 10 years or more. See Introduction for a more detailed explanation of how the priority ranking is derived. African Elephant Status Report 2007 SOUTHERN AFRICA | REGIONAL OVERVIEW 115 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 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! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P Zimbabwe Zambia South Africa Tanzania Swaziland Namibia Mozambique Malawi Lesotho Congo Democratic Republic of Congo Botswana Angola LUANDA HARARE LUSAKA MBABANE PRETORIA (Tshwane) DAR ES SALAAM WINDHOEK MAPUTO LILONGWE GABORONE 20°E 20°E 30°E 30°E 40°E 40°E 30°S 30°S 20°S 20°S 10°S 10°S S o u t h e r n A f r i c aS o u t h e r n A f r i c a African Elephant Specialist Group This map is unprojected. Scale is indicative only. Sources: African Elephant Database Digital Chart of the World Regional Boundary International Boundary !P CAPITAL CITIES Rivers & Lakes Protected Areas Input Zones Elephant Range Known Possible ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Doubtful 0 600 1,200300 km 116 REGIONAL OVERVIEW | SOUTHERN AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 tables of estimates; see Appendix II for a list of sites) accounts for over three-quarters of the region’s DEFINITE plus PROBABLE estimate. A comparison of estimates for these sites between this and the previous report, as described in Blanc et al. (2005), indicates a significant increase of 46,354 ± 30,588 in the pooled comparable estimate since the AESR 2002 (t = 2.97; p < 0.01). This translates into an overall average annual rate of increase of 3.88% (95% CI of rate 1.06% to 6.39%) in the comparable populations. The numbers of elephants in the PROBABLE and POSSIBLE categories have declined by about 540 and 1,360 respectively, reflecting a marginal overall improvement in the precision of estimates. The figure under the SPECULATIVE category, on the other hand, has increased by 2,245, primarily as a result of new guesses and the degradation of old estimates to the category of OTHER GUESSES. Cross-border Movements Movements of elephants are known to occur between Mozambique and Tanzania (Eastern Africa). The only other area in Southern Africa where cross-border movement may take place is between northern Angola and the southwest of the Democratic Republic of Congo, but there are no reliable reports of such movements. African Elephant Status Report 2007 SOUTHERN AFRICA | ANGOLA 117 A N G O L A General Statistics Country area: 1,246,700 km² Range area (% of country): 406,946 km² (53%) Protected area coverage (% of country): 7% Protected range (% of known and possible range in protected areas): 9% Information Quality Index (IQI): 0.03 CITES Appendix: I Listing Year: 1989 Current Issues Although conservation and monitoring work has begun after the end of hostilities in Angola, it has concentrated largely on the southeast, with little or no assessment effort taking place elsewhere. A detailed nationwide study of elephant distribution and density needs to be undertaken. A project to clear landmines from the Luiana Partial Reserve got underway in 2005 as part of a plan to establish the Kavango Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area, which will span five countries and will cover part of the Upper Zambezi Basin, the Okavango Basin and the Okavango Delta. A recent survey found over 1,500 kg of ivory openly for sale in Luanda. Although most of the stock is believed to originate in neighbouring Democratic Republic of Congo, it is thought that some of the ivory may be sourced within Angola, and particularly from the northwest and southeast of the country. Although Angola formally approved its membership of CITES in 2001, the decision has yet to be formally gazetted, and it therefore officially remains a non-party to the convention (Milliken et al., 2006). A recent study found human-elephant conflict in the province of Cabinda to be widespread, and the severity of the problem is reported to be increasing (Heffernan, 2005). There have also been recent reports of crop raiding and destruction of property by elephants between Malengue and the Bicuar National Park (Anon., 2004). Range Data Elephants are believed to be present in the far north and far south of the country. Forest elephants (Loxodonta africana cyclotis) are believed to occur in the northwest and savanna elephants (Loxodonta africana africana) in the northeast and south (Enock, quest. reply, 2002). Two major changes have been made to the southern portion of the range map for Angola for this report, both based on information provided by Chase (2006). The area of KNOWN range around the Luiana Partial Reserve has been expanded northward and eastward, and the area of southern Angola north of the 15th parallel has been re-categorized as DOUBTFUL range. Nevertheless, a herd of elephants was reported in August 2004 in the village of Capembe, to the southwest of the town of Malengue (Anon., 2004), and this is shown as a cross on the map. Further southeast, also shown as a cross on the map, is a sighting of 17 elephants (in four herds) along the Cuito River, 120 km north of the Namibian border during a reconnaissance flight in November 2005 (Chase & Griffin, 2005b). The straight boundaries of these changes in the range map are a reflection of limited knowledge in this area and do not represent actual elephant distribution. The hard boundaries of elephant range along the border with the Democratic Republic of Congo to the north, and with Namibia to the south, on the other hand, reflect marked differences in human population densities on either side of the border. 118 ANGOLA | SOUTHERN AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 The area of KNOWN range in the exclave of Cabinda has been extended to the southwest based on information in Heffernan (2005). Despite these updates, the range map for Angola remains, for the most part, highly speculative, with over three-quarters of the available range data being over 10 years old. Population Data A series of surveys of the Luiana Partial Reserve have been conducted since 2003 by Chase and Griffin (2005b). The estimates from these surveys have consistently increased from 263 in 2003 to 1583 in 2005, suggesting that elephants are moving into Angola from neighbouring countries in increasing numbers. In all three surveys, elephants were found invariably in the southeastern sectors of the park, with no elephants detected in the western sector. In consequence, two entries are shown for Luiana in the table of estimates, one for Luiana (West) with an estimate of zero and another for Luiana (East) with an estimate of 1,583 ± 801 from the 2005 survey. These replace an INFORMED GUESS of 100 by Hanks (J. Hanks, pers. comm., 2003). The resulting increases in the DEFINITE, PROBABLE and POSSIBLE categories reflect better information as well as the movement of elephants from other countries into Angola. All other estimates for Angola remain unchanged from the previous report. Despite the considerable reduction in elephant distribution shown in this report, nearly 95% of Angola’s estimated elephant range remains unsurveyed. Cross-border Movements As mentioned above, there is evidence that elephants are moving into southeastern Angola from Botswana through neighbouring Namibia in increasing numbers. Cross-border movement is also possible between Luiana and Sioma Ngwezi National Park (Zambia). Movement across Angola’s northern border with the Democratic Republic of Congo is unlikely to take place, as elephants are no longer thought to occur in that part of the DRC, where human population densities are relatively high. Elephant distribution in the exclave of Cabinda is spread along the border with Congo, and there is likely to be movement of elephants across that border (Heffernan, 2005). African Elephant Status Report 2007 SOUTHERN AFRICA | ANGOLA 119 SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEData Category DEFINITE SUMMARY TOTALS FOR ANGOLA 00036Aerial or Ground Total Counts 0801801782Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts 05000Informed Guesses 60000Other Guesses 818 801 851 60TOTALS 2006 TOTALS 2002 36 0 150 60 INTERPRETATION OF CHANGES IN ESTIMATES FROM PREVIOUS REPORT SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEDEFINITECause of Change Different Technique +782 +801 +701 0 TOTAL CHANGE +782 +801 +701 0 AREA OF RANGE COVERED BY EACH DATA CATEGORY (km²) 468 10,510 0 0 51,254 62,232 0 3 8,396 1,502 334,814 344,714 468 10,512 8,396 1,502 386,068 406,946TOTAL Unassessed Range Other Guesses Informed Guesses Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts Aerial or Ground Total Counts Total RangePossible RangeKnown RangeData Category 120 ANGOLA | SOUTHERN AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 AREA (km²) INPUT ZONE ESTIMATE 95% C.L. SOURCE NUMBER OF ELEPHANTS ANGOLA: ELEPHANT ESTIMATES LAT.LON. MAP LOCATION TYPE RELIAB. SURVEY DETAILS² YEAR CAUSE OF CHANGE¹ PFS³ 1,505Bongola Area 1992 60 Anstey, 1993EIG3 17.6 E 17.3 S––– 3 9,500Cáua Camp 2002 36 P. Vaz Pinto, pers. comm., 2003 AIR1 13.3 E 9.3 S––– 2 801 4,032Luiana (East) Partial Reserve 2005 1,583 Chase & Griffin, 2005bBAS2 22.8 E 17.4 SDT 3 4,368Luiana (West) Partial Reserve 2005 0 Chase & Griffin, 2005bBAS2 22.3 E 17.4 SDT 9,500Quiçama National Park 2002 50 P. Vaz Pinto, pers. comm., 2003 DIG3 13.6 E 9.8 S––– 2 ¹ Key to Causes of Change: DA: Different Area; DD: Data Degraded; DT: Different Technique; NA: New Analysis; NG: New Guess; NP: New population; PL: Population Lost; RS: Repeat Survey (RS´ denotes a repeat survey that is not statistically comparable for reasons such as different season); –––: No Change ² Key to Survey Types: AS: Aerial Sample Count; AT: Aerial Total Count; DC: Dung Count; GD: Genetic Dung Count; GS: Ground Sample Count; GT: Ground Total Count; IG: Informed Guess; IR: Individual Registration; OG: Other Guess. Survey Type is followed by an indicator of survey quality, ranked from 1 to 3 (best to worst). Survey Reliability is keyed A-E (best to worst) ³ PFS: Priority for Future Surveys, ranked from 1 to 5 (highest to lowest). Based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of national range accounted for by the site in question, PFS is a measure of the importance and urgency for future population surveys. All areas of unassessed range have a priority of 1. See Introduction for details on how the PFS is derived. African Elephant Status Report 2007 SOUTHERN AFRICA | ANGOLA 121 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 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! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! D D D D D !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P Cubango Cuango Cuando Cassai Congo Zam beze Lomami Iona NP Mupa NP Moçamedes PR Mavinga PR Dimonika BR Mudumo NPSkeleton Coast GP Bikuar NP Chimalavera RNP West Zambezi GMA Chizera GMA Lukwakwa GMA Kunene Khaudom - Kavango Luiana (West) Luiana (East) Chobe Quiçama Conkouati Cáua Camp Bongola Sioma Ngwezi West Lunga Caprivi Bushimae Zambia Namibia Congo Democratic Republic of Congo Angola Namibe Huambo Benguela Malange LUANDA Cabinda Mongu Malengue Luena BRAZZAVILLE Lubango KINSHASA Pointe- Noire 11°E 11°E 12°E 12°E 13°E 13°E 14°E 14°E 15°E 15°E 16°E 16°E 17°E 17°E 18°E 18°E 19°E 19°E 20°E 20°E 21°E 21°E 22°E 22°E 23°E 23°E 24°E 24°E 18°S 18°S 17°S 17°S 16°S 16°S 15°S 15°S 14°S 14°S 13°S 13°S 12°S 12°S 11°S 11°S 10°S 10°S 9°S 9°S 8°S 8°S 7°S 7°S 6°S 6°S 5°S 5°S A n g o l aA n g o l a This map is unprojected. Scale is indicative only. See Appendix IV for protected area abbreviations. Sources: African Elephant Database Digital Chart of the World African Elephant Specialist Group International Boundary Rivers & Lakes !P Towns Protected Areas Input Zones (variable hatching) Elephant Range Known Possible ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Doubtful D Sighting/sign 0 310 620155 km 122 BOTSWANA | SOUTHERN AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 B O T S W A N A General Statistics Country area: 600,370 km² Protected area coverage (% of country): 18% Range area (% of country): 100,265 km² (17%) Protected range (% of known and possible range in protected areas): 19% Information Quality Index (IQI): 0.87 CITES Appendix: II Listing Year: 1997 Current Issues Botswana’s elephant population continues to grow, and controversy over its impact on vegetation and biodiversity has become increasingly heated in recent years. There have been numerous calls for control measures to be put in place to prevent biodiversity loss, as changes to vegetation, particularly along the river fronts, have become more apparent. Some authors, however, believe that no action should be taken, and that the ecosystem is reverting to its condition before hunting reduced elephant numbers in the 19th century (Skarpe et al., 2004). Still other experts believe that Botswana’s population is now beyond feasible control measures (Cumming & Jones, 2005), and that only a drought or disease outbreak can reduce the population. These and other issues were addressed in a review of the 1991 Elephant Conservation and Management Plan (Department of Wildlife and National Parks, 1991), which resulted in a new draft policy and strategy for the conservation and management of elephants in Botswana (DG Ecological Consulting, 2003a,b). The primary objectives of the strategy are to reduce human-elephant conflict to acceptable levels; to prevent, reduce or reverse unacceptable elephant-induced environmental changes; to maximize benefits from sustainable utilization of elephants; and to protect elephants through law enforcement.The strategy sets targets to reduce human-elephant conflict, which is reportedly intensifying as the elephant population expands (DG Ecological Consulting, 2003a), with up to 40% of the potential annual harvests of subsistence farmers being destroyed by elephants in some areas (Mosojane, 2004). As the strategy awaits final approval and implementation, a number of measures aimed at reducing human-elephant conflict and the impact of the growing elephant population have been planned or taken. These include the granting in 2005 of citizen hunting permits for elephant in the Tuli area (Mojaphoko, pers comm. 2005), and a plan to translocate 500 elephants from Botswana to Gorongosa National Park in Mozambique, scheduled for 2004, but which did not take place. A number of TFCAs are in the process of being established to provide for elephant dispersal beyond Botswana’s borders. The largest of these will be the Kavango-Zambezi (KAZA) TFCA, which is expected to cover over 287,000 km², and which will include parts of northern Botswana, the Luiana Partial Reserve in Angola, Sioma Ngwezi National Park in Zambia and Babwata National Park in Namibia. This TFCA is in its conceptual phase, and a Memorandum of Understanding between the Governments of these countries was signed in late 2006.The signing of a similar Memorandum of Understanding to pave the way for the creation of the Limpopo-Sashe TFCA met with unexpected delays in 2005 (Peace Parks Foundation, 2006). This TFCA will encompass the Tuli Game Reserve, the new Mapungubwe National Park in South Africa and the Tuli Circle Safari Area in Zimbabwe, and will include a large proportion of privately owned land in all three countries. In 2006 Botswana notified CITES of an increase in its export quota for elephant trophies to 540 tusks (270 animals), up by 120 tusks from the quota it had maintained for the previous four years (UNEP-WCMC, 2006). In January 2007, Botswana submitted a proposal for consideration at the 14th Meeting of the African Elephant Status Report 2007 SOUTHERN AFRICA | BOTSWANA 123 SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEData Category DEFINITE SUMMARY TOTALS FOR BOTSWANA 020,82920,829133,829Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts 133,829 20,829 20,829 0TOTALS 2006 TOTALS 2002 100,629 21,237 21,237 0 INTERPRETATION OF CHANGES IN ESTIMATES FROM PREVIOUS REPORT SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEDEFINITECause of Change Repeat Survey +34,128 +643 +643 0 Different Technique -928 -1,051 -1,051 0 TOTAL CHANGE +33,200 -408 -408 0 AREA OF RANGE COVERED BY EACH DATA CATEGORY (km²) 88,352 722 89,075 11,190 0 11,190 99,543 722 100,265TOTAL Unassessed Range Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts Total RangePossible RangeKnown RangeData Category 124 BOTSWANA | SOUTHERN AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 AREA (km²) INPUT ZONE ESTIMATE 95% C.L. SOURCE NUMBER OF ELEPHANTS BOTSWANA: ELEPHANT ESTIMATES LAT.LON. MAP LOCATION TYPE RELIAB. SURVEY DETAILS² YEAR CAUSE OF CHANGE¹ PFS³ 10,539 12,195Chobe National Park & Environs 2006 40,767 DWNP, 2006BAS2 24.6 E 18.5 SRS 2 1,950 11,476Nxai Pan & Makgadikgadi National Parks 2006 1,436 DWNP, 2006BAS3 24.8 E 20.4 SRS 2 7,191 17,160Okavango Delta 2006 31,191 DWNP, 2006BAS2 23.1 E 19.4 SRS 2 16,334 18,303Rest of Northern Botswana 2006 80,226 DWNP, 2006BAS2 23.5 E 19.7 SRS 1 685 3,510Tuli Game Reserve 2006 1,038 DWNP, 2006BAS2 29.1 E 22.2 SDT 2 ¹ Key to Causes of Change: DA: Different Area; DD: Data Degraded; DT: Different Technique; NA: New Analysis; NG: New Guess; NP: New population; PL: Population Lost; RS: Repeat Survey (RS´ denotes a repeat survey that is not statistically comparable for reasons such as different season); –––: No Change ² Key to Survey Types: AS: Aerial Sample Count; AT: Aerial Total Count; DC: Dung Count; GD: Genetic Dung Count; GS: Ground Sample Count; GT: Ground Total Count; IG: Informed Guess; IR: Individual Registration; OG: Other Guess. Survey Type is followed by an indicator of survey quality, ranked from 1 to 3 (best to worst). Survey Reliability is keyed A-E (best to worst) ³ PFS: Priority for Future Surveys, ranked from 1 to 5 (highest to lowest). Based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of national range accounted for by the site in question, PFS is a measure of the importance and urgency for future population surveys. All areas of unassessed range have a priority of 1. See Introduction for details on how the PFS is derived. African Elephant Status Report 2007 SOUTHERN AFRICA | BOTSWANA 125 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! D D D !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P Cubango Cuando Deka SA Mamili NP Kazuma Pan NP Mudumo NP Bwabwata NP West Zambezi GMA Moremi GRN#a- Jaqna Khaudom - Kavango Luiana (West) Luiana (East) Rest of Northern Botswana Nxai Pan & Makgadikgadi Chobe Okavango Delta Nyae Nyae Home Farm & Greystone Kavira Mambali Bubiana Shangani Venetia- Limpopo Welgevonden Pilanesberg Madikwe Atherstone Marakele Tuli Tuli Circle Matabeleland Ngamo & Sikumi Hwange Lusulu Mosi-oa-Tunya Matetsi Hartley Chirisa Chizarira Sijarira North Gokwe Chete Binga Sioma Ngwezi Caprivi Zimbabwe Zambia South Africa Namibia Botswana Angola Bulawayo Victoria Falls Johannesburg PRETORIA (Tshwane) Pietersburg LivingstoneKasane GABORONE Maun Ghanzi Francistown Lobatse 20°E 20°E 21°E 21°E 22°E 22°E 23°E 23°E 24°E 24°E 25°E 25°E 26°E 26°E 27°E 27°E 28°E 28°E 29°E 29°E 27°S 27°S 26°S 26°S 25°S 25°S 24°S 24°S 23°S 23°S 22°S 22°S 21°S 21°S 20°S 20°S 19°S 19°S 18°S 18°S B o t s w a n aB o t s w a n a This map is unprojected. Scale is indicative only. See Appendix IV for protected area abbreviations. Sources: African Elephant Database Digital Chart of the World African Elephant Specialist Group International Boundary Rivers & Lakes !P Towns Protected Areas Input Zones (variable hatching) Elephant Range Known Possible ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Doubtful D Sighting/sign 0 230 460115 km 126 BOTSWANA | SOUTHERN AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 Conference of the Parties to CITES, to be allowed to trade in hides and leather goods for commercial purposes; to be allocated an annual export quota of up to eight tons of Government-owned raw ivory of Botswana origin to approved destinations; and to conduct a one-off sale of no more than 40 tons of raw ivory stocks to similarly approved destinations (Government of Botswana, 2007). Range Data Most of the country’s elephant range is situated in the north and spans around 100,000 km². The expansion of elephant range in Botswana continues, and portions of KNOWN range have been added to the southern sector of Nxai Pan National Park and along the watercourse marking the western boundary of Magkadigkadi National Park, where elephants were sighted in recent surveys and have become permanent residents (G.C. Craig, pers. comm., 2006). An area of range to the southeast of Maun, featured in the previous report, has been removed for lack of recent evidence of elephant presence (G.C. Craig, pers. comm., 2006). Nevertheless, elephant spoor has been regularly seen in a small holding close to Maun (D. Gibson, pers. comm. 2006). The only other area where elephants occur in Botswana is considerably smaller than the northern range and lies in the eastern tip of the country, covering around 1,000 km² at the confluence of the Shashe and Limpopo rivers. Two small areas of KNOWN range have been added to the northwest of Tuli: a narrow strip along the Sashe River on the border with Zimbabwe and a small area south of Francistown (DG Ecological Consulting, 2003a; G.C. Craig, pers. comm., 2006; M.E. Gadd, pers. comm., 2006). In 2004, two elephants were shot on Wayside Farm, outside Francistown (Chase & Griffin, 2005a), and this is shown as a cross on the map. Another cross is shown further south, where elephants were seen in 2000 (M.E. Gadd, pers. comm., 2006). Population Data Most of Botswana is covered by regular aerial sample counts that include the entire northern elephant range. Five surveys have been conducted since 2002, but the 2005 survey did not cover the entire survey area due to logistical problems (C. Taolo, pers. comm. 2006). The national estimates for the other surveys were 123,152 ± 17,152 in 2002 (Department of Wildlife and National Parks, 2002), 109,471 ± 18,443 in 2003 (Department of Wildlife and National Parks, 2003), 151,000 ± 20,004 in 2004 (Department of Wildlife and National Parks, 2004) and 154,658 ± 21,253 (Department of Wildlife and National Parks, 2006). The estimates presented here, obtained from the 2006 survey report, have been split to show separate figures for the survey blocks containing national parks and the Okavango Delta. These replace a 1999 combined aerial sample count estimate of 120,604 ± 21,237 (Department of Wildlife and National Parks, 1999). The estimate for the Tuli Game Reserve, also from the 2006 national survey, replaces an aerial total count estimate of 1,262 (Selier et al., 2002). The number of elephants in the DEFINITE category has increased by over 33,000 as recorded by methodologically comparable surveys. The numbers in the PROBABLE and POSSIBLE categories have dropped by approximately 410 elephants each due to an overall increase in precision of the national estimate. Cross-border Movements Elephants in northern Botswana are part of a larger population that stretches east into Zimbabwe (Craig, 1996b), north into the Caprivi Strip in Namibia and possibly into Zambia and Angola as well (Chase & Griffin, 2005a). It constitutes the largest known population of elephants in Africa, and one of the largest continuous stretches of KNOWN range on the continent. As part of a continuing westward expansion in northern Botswana, elephants are reported to be crossing into the Khaudom and Nyae Nyae areas of Namibia. Elephants also move from the eastern range portion of Botswana to Zimbabwe and into private reserves in northern Limpopo Province (South Africa). African Elephant Status Report 2007 SOUTHERN AFRICA | MALAWI 127 M A L A W I General Statistics Country area: 118,480 km² Range area (% of country): 7,538 km² (7%) Protected area coverage (% of country): 9% Protected range (% of known and possible range in protected areas): 84% Information Quality Index (IQI): 0.17 CITES Appendix: I Listing Year: 1989 Current Issues Elephant populations in Malawi are small and fragmented, and are further threatened by encroachment. Human-elephant conflict is prevalent as a result, and poaching for meat and ivory is believed to be further reducing certain populations (Bhima et al., 2003). The long-term viability of several of Malawi's elephant populations is already in doubt. In July 2006, 70 elephants from Liwonde National Park and Mangochi Forest Reserve were translocated to Majete Wildlife Reserve, where elephants had been absent for over 10 years (Sherry & Tattersall, 1996). The African Parks Foundation, which conducted the translocation, had taken over the management of Majete in 2003 (African Parks Foundation, 2006b). Range Data Because of its small size and high human population densities, Malawi's elephants are almost entirely confined to protected areas, including national parks and forest reserves, with only a small part of range outside protected areas in the southeast (Bhima, 1996). The main elephant populations occur in Liwonde and Kasungu National Parks and the Nkhota-Kota and Vwaza Marsh Wildlife Reserves. For this report, an area of KNOWN range has been added within the boundary of the Majete Wildlife Reserve, to which elephants have been recently translocated. The shape of KNOWN range in Thuma Forest Reserve has been altered with information from the Landscan 2002 human population density data set (ORNL/GIST, 2002; see Introduction section for rationale). Based on the same data, an area of POSSIBLE range to the north of Mangochi Forest Reserve has been categorized as DOUBTFUL range. Population Data Aerial sample counts of Kasungu National Park and Vwaza Marsh Game Reserve were conducted in 2005 (Ferreira et al., 2005). Although relatively high sampling intensities were employed in these surveys, the lack of stratification resulted in wide confidence intervals around the estimates. In addition, neither of these surveys employed a radar altimeter, which further compromises the reliability of the estimates. The Kasungu survey, with an estimate of 58 ± 218, replaces a 1995 aerial sample count estimate of 391 ± 349. As the lower confidence interval in the 2005 survey is larger than the estimate, the number of elephants seen in the survey (25) contributes to the DEFINITE category in the summary table. A dung count of Kasungu had been conducted in 2002, giving an estimate of 117 with an asymmetric confidence interval of 96 to 142, but this estimate only covered the southern part of the park (Bhima et al., 2003). The survey of Vwaza Marsh could not be completed due to aircraft failure (Ferreira et al., 2005), and its estimate of 270 has been categorized as an INFORMED GUESS for this report, with the number of elephants seen in the survey (41) appearing under the DEFINITE category. This guess replaces a 1997 INFORMED GUESS of 35 (Gibson, 1997). 128 MALAWI | SOUTHERN AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 The same team also conducted a survey of Nyika National Park using a point transect design (Ferreira et al., 2005). The survey returned an estimate of zero, but the sampled area excluded the north of the park, where elephants are found. For this reason, the estimate of 339 from the previous report has been retained. As mentioned under Current Issues above, 70 elephants were translocated from Liwonde National Park to a 140 km² fenced sanctuary within Majete Wildlife Reserve in July 2006. As the Majete population was previously extinct, a figure of 70 now appears as a new population in the table of estimates. Prior to the Majete translocation, Liwonde National Park was said to hold in excess of 600 elephants (African Parks Foundation, 2006b), but no details could be obtained on the basis of the estimate. The difference between this figure and the 70 elephants translocated to Majete, (i.e. 530 elephants) has been entered for Liwonde in the category of OTHER GUESSES. This new estimate replaces a figure of 414 from an aerial sample count conducted in 1995 (Bhima, 1996). The estimate of 1,037 for Nkhota-Kota Wildlife Reserve (Japan International Cooperation Agency & Government of Malawi, 1997) has been degraded to the category of OTHER GUESSES for the same reason, as it is now over 10 years old. There have been substantial decreases in the estimates for the DEFINITE, PROBABLE and POSSIBLE categories compared to the previous report. These decreases in estimates are mainly due to the degradation of old data to the SPECULATIVE category or their replacement by low quality guesses. Estimates from recent systematic surveys only contribute marginally to these decreases. Although estimates are available for nearly 90% of Malawi’s elephant range, over half of that area is covered by guesses. Cross-border Movements Cross-border movement between Kasungu National Park in Malawi and the North Luangwa ecosystem was documented by Jachmann and Bell (1985), but a recent survey of Zambia’s Lukusuzi National Park, across the border from Kasungu, failed to find any elephants in the park (Fourie et al., 2005). Furthermore, the area between the two parks is densely settled (Bhima et al., 2003), and it is unlikely that elephant movement continues. African Elephant Status Report 2007 SOUTHERN AFRICA | MALAWI 129 SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEData Category DEFINITE SUMMARY TOTALS FOR MALAWI 032332374Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts 203090111Informed Guesses 1,567000Other Guesses 185 323 632 1,587TOTALS 2006 TOTALS 2002 647 1,569 1,649 20 INTERPRETATION OF CHANGES IN ESTIMATES FROM PREVIOUS REPORT SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEDEFINITECause of Change Repeat Survey -18 -308 -94 0 New Population +75 0 0 0 New Guess -439 0 +165 +530 Data Degraded -80 -938 -1,087 +1,037 TOTAL CHANGE -462 -1,246 -1,017 +1,567 AREA OF RANGE COVERED BY EACH DATA CATEGORY (km²) 2,908 1,511 2,316 0 6,735 0 0 0 804 804 2,908 1,511 2,316 804 7,538TOTAL Unassessed Range Other Guesses Informed Guesses Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts Total RangePossible RangeKnown RangeData Category 130 MALAWI | SOUTHERN AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 AREA (km²) INPUT ZONE ESTIMATE 95% C.L. SOURCE NUMBER OF ELEPHANTS MALAWI: ELEPHANT ESTIMATES LAT.LON. MAP LOCATION TYPE RELIAB. SURVEY DETAILS² YEAR CAUSE OF CHANGE¹ PFS³ 218 2,463Kasungu National Park 2005 58 Ferreira et al., 2005BAS1 33.1 E 12.9 SRS´ 1 538Liwonde National Park 2006 530 African Parks Foundation, 2006b EOG3 35.3 E 14.9 SNG 2 140Majete Wildlife Reserve 2006 70 African Parks Foundation, 2006b DIG3 34.7 E 16.0 SNP 3 1,511 1,802Nkhota-Kota Wildlife Reserve 1995 1,037 JICA & Government of Malawi, 1997 EAS2 34.0 E 12.9 SDD 1 239 3,134Nyika National Park 1997 339 Gibson, 1997BAS1 33.8 E 10.6 S––– 1 640Phirilongwe Forest Reserve 1998 50 S.M. Munthali, pers. comm., 1998 DIG3 35.0 E 14.6 S––– 2 20* 370Thuma Forest Reserve 1998 30 S.M. Munthali, pers. comm., 1998 DIG3 34.2 E 13.9 S––– 2 976Vwaza Marsh Wildlife Reserve 2005 270 Ferreira et al., 2005DIG3 33.4 E 11.0 SNG 1 * Range of informed guess ¹ Key to Causes of Change: DA: Different Area; DD: Data Degraded; DT: Different Technique; NA: New Analysis; NG: New Guess; NP: New population; PL: Population Lost; RS: Repeat Survey (RS´ denotes a repeat survey that is not statistically comparable for reasons such as different season); –––: No Change ² Key to Survey Types: AS: Aerial Sample Count; AT: Aerial Total Count; DC: Dung Count; GD: Genetic Dung Count; GS: Ground Sample Count; GT: Ground Total Count; IG: Informed Guess; IR: Individual Registration; OG: Other Guess. Survey Type is followed by an indicator of survey quality, ranked from 1 to 3 (best to worst). Survey Reliability is keyed A-E (best to worst) ³ PFS: Priority for Future Surveys, ranked from 1 to 5 (highest to lowest). Based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of national range accounted for by the site in question, PFS is a measure of the importance and urgency for future population surveys. All areas of unassessed range have a priority of 1. See Introduction for details on how the PFS is derived. African Elephant Status Report 2007 SOUTHERN AFRICA | MALAWI 131 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 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! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !P !P !P !P !P !P !P Shire L. Cabora Bassa L.Chilwa L.Malawi Mangochi FR Mwabvi WR Lengwe NP Luambe NP Bangweulu GMA Selous GR Majete Doma Musalangu Mwanya Zambezi Valley Gilé Cabora Bassa North Chanjuzi Selous- Masasi Nyatana Selous- Niassa Mavuradonha Nyampala Liwonde Phirilongwe West Petauke Thuma Chisomo & Sandwe Lupande Nkhota- Kota Kasungu Lukusuzi South Luangwa Lavushi Manda Kafinde North Luangwa Niassa Magoe Isangano Vwaza Marsh Nyika Selous Tete Manica Sofala Mukungule Luawata Zimbabwe Zambia Tanzania Mozambique Malawi Chipata Tunduru Tete Blantyre Zomba LILONGWE Mzuzu 31°E 31°E 32°E 32°E 33°E 33°E 34°E 34°E 35°E 35°E 36°E 36°E 37°E 37°E 38°E 38°E 17°S 17°S 16°S 16°S 15°S 15°S 14°S 14°S 13°S 13°S 12°S 12°S 11°S 11°S 10°S 10°S M a l a w iM a l a w i This map is unprojected. Scale is indicative only. See Appendix IV for protected area abbreviations. Sources: African Elephant Database Digital Chart of the World African Elephant Specialist Group International Boundary Rivers & Lakes !P Towns Protected Areas Input Zones (variable hatching) Elephant Range Known Possible ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Doubtful D Sighting/sign 0 180 36090 km 132 MOZAMBIQUE | SOUTHERN AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 M O Z A M B I Q U E General Statistics Country area: 801,590 km² Range area (% of country): 334,786 km² (52%) Protected area coverage (% of country): 7% Protected range (% of known and possible range in protected areas): 15% Information Quality Index (IQI): 0.48 CITES Appendix: I Listing Year: 1989 Current Issues A June 2005 survey in Maputo found considerable amounts of carved ivory openly for sale and export, including in the departure lounge of the international airport. It is believed that most of the ivory originates from within the country. Although the report found Mozambique’s implementation of its obligations under CITES to be lacking, two weeks before the survey, the Government had initiated a campaign to encourage owners of ivory to register and regularize their stocks, and a number of ivory seizures were made thereafter (Milliken et al., 2006). The Maputo Special Reserve is being expanded to link it to the Futi corridor and the Tembe Elephant Park in South Africa as a transfrontier conservation area. An electric fence will be erected along the western boundary of the enlarged Maputo Special Reserve, and the fence on the northern boundary of the Tembe Elephant Park will be removed (Peace Parks Foundation, 2006). A translocation of 500 elephants from Chobe National Park (Botswana) to Gorongosa National Park (Mozambique) was planned for 2004, but did not take place. In 2006, the United States Government denied applications for CITES import permits for a number of elephant trophies, originating from areas other than the Niassa Game Reserve, on the grounds that there was insufficient information on elephant populations in such areas to set rational trophy quotas (Jackson, 2006). In 2005 Mozambique increased its CITES export quota from 20 to 80 tusks (40 animals) (UNEPWCMC, 2006). Range Data Reliable knowledge on the distribution of elephants in Mozambique is scanty in many areas. The country’s most important population is in the far north, in and around the Niassa Game Reserve. Smaller known populations occur in the west and far south. Two new areas of KNOWN range have been added to the north and to the east of Limpopo National Park, where elephants are known to be moving to (Anderson, quest. reply, 2005). Based on information provided by the same source, the area of range in Banhine National Park has been categorized as DOUBTFUL. A total of 20 areas across the country have been categorized as DOUBTFUL range based on data from the Landscan ambient human population data set (ORNL/GIST, 2002). All areas re-categorized are estimated to have a human population density of at least 15 persons per km², which makes elephant presence unlikely (see Introduction section for details). These changes reflect better information rather than recent real changes in elephant distribution. The Gilé Game Reserve, incorrectly shown as NON-RANGE in the previous report, is now depicted as KNOWN range. African Elephant Status Report 2007 SOUTHERN AFRICA | MOZAMBIQUE 133 SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEData Category DEFINITE SUMMARY TOTALS FOR MOZAMBIQUE 000630Aerial or Ground Total Counts 02,3962,39613,427Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts 68237022Informed Guesses 6,912000Other Guesses 14,079 2,396 2,633 6,980TOTALS 2006 TOTALS 2002 11,647 2,786 3,073 6,902 INTERPRETATION OF CHANGES IN ESTIMATES FROM PREVIOUS REPORT SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEDEFINITECause of Change Repeat Survey +428 +749 +1,032 0 Different Technique +730 0 +97 -4 Different Area +1,254 -1,139 -1,569 0 New Guess +19 0 0 +82 TOTAL CHANGE +2,432 -390 -440 +78 AREA OF RANGE COVERED BY EACH DATA CATEGORY (km²) 10,786 48,309 4,831 123,197 33,853 220,977 0 0 2,592 66,794 44,423 113,809 10,786 48,309 7,423 189,991 78,276 334,786TOTAL Unassessed Range Other Guesses Informed Guesses Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts Aerial or Ground Total Counts Total RangePossible RangeKnown RangeData Category 134 MOZAMBIQUE | SOUTHERN AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 AREA (km²) INPUT ZONE ESTIMATE 95% C.L. SOURCE NUMBER OF ELEPHANTS MOZAMBIQUE: ELEPHANT ESTIMATES LAT.LON. MAP LOCATION TYPE RELIAB. SURVEY DETAILS² YEAR CAUSE OF CHANGE¹ PFS³ 6,510Banhine National Park 2005 0 Anderson, quest. reply, 2005DIG3 32.9 E 22.8 SNG 43,780Cabo Delgado Province 1998 670 DNFFB, 1999EOG3 39.2 E 12.4 S––– 1 807 3,708Cabora Bassa North 2003 1,718 Dunham, 2004aBAS2 30.7 E 15.4 SDA 3 18* 2,100Gilé Game Reserve 2002 15 C.P. Ntumi, pers. comm., 2003DIG3 38.4 E 16.6 S––– 3 3,689Gorongosa National Park 2004 22 Dunham, 2004bDIG3 34.3 E 18.8 SNG 3 2,235Inhambane Province 1998 260 DNFFB, 1999EOG3 34.0 E 22.7 S––– 3 10,000Limpopo National Park 2006 630 Whyte, 2006AAT2 31.9 E 23.3 SDT 2 794 2,621Magoe District 2003 1,628 Dunham, 2004aBAS2 30.7 E 15.9 SRS 3 36,441Manica Province 1998 260 DNFFB, 1999EOG3 33.5 E 19.1 S––– 1 50* 900Maputo GR & Futi Corridor 2002 200 R. Morley, pers. comm., 2002DIG3 32.7 E 26.6 S––– 3 5* 195Mecuburi Forest Reserve 2002 5 Anderson, quest. reply, 2002EOG3 39.0 E 14.3 S––– 4 185Moribane-Chimanimani Forest Reserve 2002 22 C.P. Ntumi, pers. comm., 2003DIG3 33.4 E 19.5 S––– 4 2,111 42,612Niassa Game Reserve & Buffer Zone 2004 12,477 Craig & Gibson, 2004BAS2 37.2 E 12.1 SRS 2 7,845Quirimbas National Park 2005 2,000 Cumming & Jones, 2005EOG3 40.0 E 12.5 SNG 2 200* 33,138Sofala Province 1999 800 DNFFB, 1999EOG3 34.5 E 18.8 S––– 2 1650* 63,581Tete Province 1998 2,260 DNFFB, 1999EOG3 32.5 E 15.5 S––– 1 01,289Zambezia Province 1998 657 DNFFB, 1999EOG3 35.9 E 17.8 S––– 1 * Range of informed guess ¹ Key to Causes of Change: DA: Different Area; DD: Data Degraded; DT: Different Technique; NA: New Analysis; NG: New Guess; NP: New population; PL: Population Lost; RS: Repeat Survey (RS´ denotes a repeat survey that is not statistically comparable for reasons such as different season); –––: No Change ² Key to Survey Types: AS: Aerial Sample Count; AT: Aerial Total Count; DC: Dung Count; GD: Genetic Dung Count; GS: Ground Sample Count; GT: Ground Total Count; IG: Informed Guess; IR: Individual Registration; OG: Other Guess. Survey Type is followed by an indicator of survey quality, ranked from 1 to 3 (best to worst). Survey Reliability is keyed A-E (best to worst) ³ PFS: Priority for Future Surveys, ranked from 1 to 5 (highest to lowest). Based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of national range accounted for by the site in question, PFS is a measure of the importance and urgency for future population surveys. All areas of unassessed range have a priority of 1. See Introduction for details on how the PFS is derived. African Elephant Status Report 2007 SOUTHERN AFRICA | MOZAMBIQUE 135 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! D D D !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P!P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P Shire Komati L. Cabora Bassa L. Kariba L.Chilwa L.Malawi Mangochi FR Chipinge SA Zinave NP Umfuli RP Mwabvi WR Lengwe NP Luambe NP Bangweulu GMA Manjirenji RP Majete Malolotja Musalangu Mthetomusha Zambezi Valley Cabo Delgado Moribane- Chimanimani Gilé Malipati Tembe Cabora Bassa North Gorongosa Limpopo Banhine Zambezia Quirimbas Gonarezhou Chanjuzi Mecuburi Selous- Masasi Malilangwe Sengwe Nyatana Bubi Valley Bubiana Shangani Venetia-Limpopo Songimvelo Selati Welgevonden Mkhaya Maputo GR & Futi Hlane Sabie Sands Manyeleti Marakele Timbavati Umbabat Makuya Kruger Selous- Niassa Tuli Tuli Circle Mahenye Chiredzi River Save Valley Matabeleland Hwange HartleyChirisa Chizarira Sijarira Binga Matusadona Kariba Mavuradonha Lower Zambezi Rufunsa Liwonde Phirilongwe Luano West Petauke Thuma Chisomo & SandweLunga-Luswishi Lupande Nkhota- KotaKasungu Lukusuzi Kasanka South Luangwa Lavushi MandaKafinde North Luangwa Niassa Magoe Isangano Vwaza Marsh Nyika Selous Tete Inhambane Manica Sofala Zimbabwe Zambia South Africa Tanzania Swaziland Mozambique Malawi Mutare Bulawayo HARARE Kariba Chipata Ndola LUSAKA iniMBABANE Johannesburg PRETORIA (Tshwane) Pietersburg Tunduru Pemba Beira Tete Nampula MAPUTO Blantyre Zomba LILONGWE Mzuzu Lubumbashi Francistown 28°E 28°E 29°E 29°E 30°E 30°E 31°E 31°E 32°E 32°E 33°E 33°E 34°E 34°E 35°E 35°E 36°E 36°E 37°E 37°E 38°E 38°E 39°E 39°E 40°E 40°E 41°E 41°E 42°E 42°E 43°E 43°E 27°S 27°S 26°S 26°S 25°S 25°S 24°S 24°S 23°S 23°S 22°S 22°S 21°S 21°S 20°S 20°S 19°S 19°S 18°S 18°S 17°S 17°S 16°S 16°S 15°S 15°S 14°S 14°S 13°S 13°S 12°S 12°S 11°S 11°S M o z a m b i q u eM o z a m b i q u e This map is unprojected. Scale is indicative only. See Appendix IV for protected area abbreviations. Sources: African Elephant Database Digital Chart of the World African Elephant Specialist Group International Boundary Rivers & Lakes !P Towns Protected Areas Input Zones (variable hatching) Elephant Range Known Possible ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Doubtful D Sighting/sign 0 380 760190 km Sofala Inhambane Manica 136 MOZAMBIQUE | SOUTHERN AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 Population Data An aerial sample count of Niassa Game Reserve and Buffer Zone (Craig & Gibson, 2004) estimated 12,477 ± 2,111 elephants. Although this is lower than the estimate of 13,061 ± 2,433 (Craig & Gibson, 2002) which it replaces, the difference between the two estimates is not statistically significant, and the low carcass counts in both surveys is indicative of a secure population. Much of the Cabora Bassa North area was surveyed for the first time in 2003 as part of a cross-border aerial sample count covering the Zambezi Valley between Lakes Kariba and Cabora Bassa (Dunham, 2004a). The same survey also covered the Magoe South District, and the estimate for this area replaces a 2002 estimate of 1,264 ± 1,359 from a similar survey (Mackie, 2001). These areas were surveyed again in 2005, but a survey report had not been produced at the time of writing. The Limpopo National Park was systematically surveyed for the first time in 2006, as part of the regular aerial counts that cover Kruger National Park in South Africa. The estimate of 630 from this survey (Whyte, 2006) replaces an INFORMED GUESS of 150 to 200 (Anderson, quest. reply, 2002). An aerial sample count of Gorongosa National Park conducted in 2004 failed to detect any elephants within the search strips, but a herd of 20-22 and a single bull were seen when flying back to camp (Dunham, 2004b). These sightings have been entered as an INFORMED GUESS in the table of estimates. The previous estimate of 8 for Banhine National Park (Anderson, quest. reply, 2002) has been replaced by a new guess of zero, as elephants do not currently occur there (Anderson, quest. reply, 2005). All other estimates have been retained from the previous report. The number of elephants in the DEFINITE category has increased by nearly 2,450, largely due to the inclusion of the considerably larger area covered by the Cabora Bassa (Magoe) North survey and new survey estimates for Limpopo. An overall increase in precision is responsible for the decreases of around 400 in the PROBABLE and POSSIBLE categories. Less than a fifth of Mozambique’s elephant range is covered by good quality estimates, nearly 60% is covered by guesses, and the remaining quarter remains unassessed. Cross-border Movements Elephants in the Niassa Game Reserve are part of a transboundary population whose range includes the Selous Game Reserve in Tanzania (Mpanduji et al., 2002), and which constitutes one of the most important populations on the continent. Although most of the fence separating Limpopo National Park and Kruger National Park in South Africa has yet to be removed, elephants are reported to be moving out of Kruger and into Limpopo and north of it out of their own volition (Anderson, quest. reply, 2005; Marshall, 2005; Peace Parks Foundation, 2006). It is expected that elephant movement between the Maputo Special Reserve and Tembe Elephant Park in South Africa will resume once the electric fence along Tembe’s northern boundary is removed (Peace Parks Foundation, 2006). African Elephant Status Report 2007 SOUTHERN AFRICA | NAMIBIA 137 N A M I B I A General Statistics Country area: 825,418 km² Range area (% of country): 146,921 km² (18%) Protected area coverage (% of country): 13% Protected range (% of known and possible range in protected areas): 23% Information Quality Index (IQI): 0.46 CITES Appendix: II Listing Year: 1997 Current Issues Namibia has developed a national management plan for elephants. The plan foresees the devolution of authority to landowners, both communal and private, to manage elephants on their land as a pre-requisite for the adoption of successful adaptive co-management. It also calls for range expansion and the removal of veterinary fences that restrict elephant movement, but does not rule out management intervention to reduce populations in the future (Ministry of Environment and Tourism, 2005c). New conservancies are being created north of Etosha National Park in areas into which elephant range has been expanding. The expansion of elephant range in the northeast, due largely to immigration from Botswana is causing levels of human-elephant conflict to escalate (Martin, 2005b; Ministry of Environment and Tourism, 2005a). Namibia’s proposal to be allowed to export individually marked and certified traditional ivory amulets, known as ekipas, for non-commercial purposes was approved at the 13th Meeting of the Conference of the Parties to CITES, held in 2004 in Bangkok, Thailand (CITES, 2004). In January 2007 Namibia and Botswana submitted a joint proposal to CITES to maintain their elephant populations, as well as those of South Africa and Zimbabwe, in Appendix II, and to establish annual export quotas for these four countries to trade in raw ivory to approved trading partners (Government of Botswana & Government of Namibia, 2007). Range Data Elephants are only found in the north of the country. While large populations are found in Etosha National Park, Khaudom Game Reserve and the Caprivi region, Namibian elephants range widely in search of water depending on annual rainfall patterns, and have some of the largest home ranges recorded anywhere on the continent (Lindeque, 1995). Few changes have been made to the range map for this report. Some areas of POSSIBLE range in the Caprivi strip have been re-categorized as KNOWN range (Kolberg, 2004; Martin, 2005b), and KNOWN range has been slightly extended to the northwest of Etosha (C.R. Thouless, pers. comm., 2006) and to the west of Khaudom Game Park (Kolberg, 2004). Five elephants were seen in a survey of the N#a-Jaqna Conservancy, to the southwest of Khaudom, and this sighting is shown as a cross on the map (Kolberg, 2004). Population Data Aerial sample counts of all major elephant populations in Namibia were conducted between 2004 and 2005, as part of Namibia’s regular survey programme. A 2004 survey of Etosha National Park estimated 2,057 ± 598 elephants in the park (Kilian & Kolberg, 2004). This replaces a 2002 aerial sample count estimate of 2,417 ± 663 (Kilian, 2003). The difference between the two estimates, however, is not statistically significant. 138 NAMIBIA | SOUTHERN AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 The estimate for Caprivi, on the other hand, has nearly doubled from the previous estimate of 4,576 ± 1,223 (Ministry of Environment and Tourism, 1998) to 8,725 ± 2,206 (Kolberg, 2004). This significant difference cannot be due to natural population increase alone and is most likely to have been influenced by elephant immigration from Botswana. The estimate of 1,966 ± 973 for Khaudom/Nyae-Nyae featured in the previous report, which originated from an aerial sample count conducted in 2000 (Craig, 2003), has been replaced by the results of two simultaneous surveys conducted in Khaudom/Kavango and Nyae-Nyae by different survey teams in 2004 (Kolberg, 2004; Stander, 2004). While the Nyae Nyae estimate of 967 ± 481 from the 2004 survey is comparable in magnitude to the estimate of 755 ± 554 from the 2000 survey (Craig, 2003), the 2004 Khaudom/Kavango estimate is nearly three times higher than corresponding estimate from the 2000 survey. This difference cannot be accounted for by natural population increase alone. The area surveyed was larger in 2004 than in 2000, but only by 10%. Thus, the difference in area is unlikely to be a major contributor to the difference in the estimates. Elephants are reported to be moving from Botswana into Khaudom in increasing numbers (Martin, 2005b), and this could account for much of the difference. An estimate of 210 ± 157 from a 2005 survey in Kunene (Ministry of Environment and Tourism, 2005b) replaces an estimate of 663 ± 790 from an aerial sample count conducted in 2000 (Craig, 2003). Although the area covered in the earlier survey was nearly three times larger, the core elephant range was covered in its entirety in the 2005 survey, and the difference between the two estimates is not statistically significant. An INFORMED GUESS of 20 for Mangetti Game Reserve (Martin, 2005b) replaces an aerial total count estimate of 19 (Lindeque et al., 1995), which would have otherwise been degraded to the category of OTHER GUESSES, as the estimate is over 10 years old. The increase in the DEFINITE category is largely the result of new estimates from methodologically comparable surveys, while an overall decrease in precision has resulted in increases in the PROBABLE and POSSIBLE categories. It is worth stressing that all these changes are likely to have been influenced by elephant immigration from Botswana. Nearly 45% of Namibia’s elephant range remains unsurveyed. Although the much of the unsurveyed area is potentially important for elephant movements, only small numbers of elephants are likely to be found there at any one time. Cross-border Movements The Caprivi Strip in Namibia is an extension of the northern Botswana population, and provides an important corridor for the movement of elephants between Zimbabwe, Botswana, Zambia and Angola (Craig, 1996a). There may also be movement between other areas in northern Namibia and southern Angola. As elephant range expands in northern Botswana, elephants are moving in increasing numbers into Khaudom/Nyae-Nyae in Namibia (Martin, 2005b). African Elephant Status Report 2007 SOUTHERN AFRICA | NAMIBIA 139 SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEData Category DEFINITE SUMMARY TOTALS FOR NAMIBIA 03,2763,27612,531Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts 02000Informed Guesses 12,531 3,276 3,296 0TOTALS 2006 TOTALS 2002 7,769 1,872 1,872 0 INTERPRETATION OF CHANGES IN ESTIMATES FROM PREVIOUS REPORT SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEDEFINITECause of Change Repeat Survey +4,760 +2,579 +3,157 0 New Population +4 +159 +402 0 Different Area +13 -1,334 -2,205 0 New Guess -16 0 +70 0 TOTAL CHANGE +4,762 +1,404 +1,424 0 AREA OF RANGE COVERED BY EACH DATA CATEGORY (km²) 73,567 359 15,082 89,008 6,964 0 50,949 57,913 80,531 359 66,031 146,921TOTAL Unassessed Range Informed Guesses Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts Total RangePossible RangeKnown RangeData Category 140 NAMIBIA | SOUTHERN AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 AREA (km²) INPUT ZONE ESTIMATE 95% C.L. SOURCE NUMBER OF ELEPHANTS NAMIBIA: ELEPHANT ESTIMATES LAT.LON. MAP LOCATION TYPE RELIAB. SURVEY DETAILS² YEAR CAUSE OF CHANGE¹ PFS³ 2,206 17,943Caprivi Region 2004 8,725 Kolberg, 2004BAS2 23.5 E 17.9 SRS 2 598 18,551Etosha National Park 2004 2,057 Kilian & Kolberg, 2004BAS1 15.9 E 19.0 SRS 2 2,289 10,485Khaudom - Kavango 2004 3,787 Kolberg, 2004BAS2 20.8 E 18.6 SRS 2 157 31,144Kunene 2005 210 MET, 2005bBAS1 13.7 E 19.3 SDA 1 762Mangetti Game Reserve 2005 20 MET, 2005DIG3 19.1 E 18.7 SNG 3 115 9,143N#a-Jaqna Conservancy 2004 61 Kolberg, 2004BAS2 19.6 E 19.6 SNP 2 481 2,957Nyae Nyae Conservancy 2004 967 Stander, 2004BAS1 20.5 E 19.6 SRS 2 ¹ Key to Causes of Change: DA: Different Area; DD: Data Degraded; DT: Different Technique; NA: New Analysis; NG: New Guess; NP: New population; PL: Population Lost; RS: Repeat Survey (RS´ denotes a repeat survey that is not statistically comparable for reasons such as different season); –––: No Change ² Key to Survey Types: AS: Aerial Sample Count; AT: Aerial Total Count; DC: Dung Count; GD: Genetic Dung Count; GS: Ground Sample Count; GT: Ground Total Count; IG: Informed Guess; IR: Individual Registration; OG: Other Guess. Survey Type is followed by an indicator of survey quality, ranked from 1 to 3 (best to worst). Survey Reliability is keyed A-E (best to worst) ³ PFS: Priority for Future Surveys, ranked from 1 to 5 (highest to lowest). Based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of national range accounted for by the site in question, PFS is a measure of the importance and urgency for future population surveys. All areas of unassessed range have a priority of 1. See Introduction for details on how the PFS is derived. African Elephant Status Report 2007 SOUTHERN AFRICA | NAMIBIA 141 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! D D !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P Cubango Cuando Hobatere CcA Iona NP Mupa NP Moçamedes PR Mavinga PR Mamili NP Mudumo NP Skeleton Coast GP Bwabwata NP Mangetti GR West Zambezi GMA National West Coast Tourist RA Moremi GR Kunene N#a- Jaqna Khaudom - Kavango Kafue Luiana (West) Luiana (East) Rest of Northern Botswana Nxai Pan & Makgadikgadi Chobe Okavango Delta Etosha Mangetti Nyae Nyae Matetsi Bongola Sioma Ngwezi Sichifulo Mulobezi Caprivi Zambia South Africa Namibia Botswana Angola Luderitz Keetmanshoop Swakopmund WINDHOEK Otjiwarongo Tsumeb Kasane Maun Ghanzi 12°E 12°E 13°E 13°E 14°E 14°E 15°E 15°E 16°E 16°E 17°E 17°E 18°E 18°E 19°E 19°E 20°E 20°E 21°E 21°E 22°E 22°E 23°E 23°E 24°E 24°E 25°E 25°E 30°S 30°S 29°S 29°S 28°S 28°S 27°S 27°S 26°S 26°S 25°S 25°S 24°S 24°S 23°S 23°S 22°S 22°S 21°S 21°S 20°S 20°S 19°S 19°S 18°S 18°S 17°S 17°S 16°S 16°S N a m i b i aN a m i b i a This map is unprojected. Scale is indicative only. See Appendix IV for protected area abbreviations. Sources: African Elephant Database Digital Chart of the World African Elephant Specialist Group International Boundary Rivers & Lakes !P Towns Protected Areas Input Zones (variable hatching) Elephant Range Known Possible ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Doubtful D Sighting/sign 0 325 650162.5 km 142 NAMIBIA | SOUTHERN AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK African Elephant Status Report 2007 SOUTHERN AFRICA | SOUTH AFRICA 143 S O U T H A F R I C A General Statistics Country area: 1,219,912 km² Range area (% of country): 30,455 km² (2%) Protected area coverage (% of country): 4% Protected range (% of known and possible range in protected areas): 85% Information Quality Index (IQI): 0.96 CITES Appendix: II Listing Year: 2000 Current Issues As elephant populations in South Africa continue to grow, arguments between those in favour of the resumption of culling and those against it have become increasingly heated (Cumming & Jones, 2005). A consultative process, convened by South African National Parks (SANParks) in 2004, reviewed the opinions of scientists and stakeholders on both sides of the debate (South African National Parks, 2004a, 2005). In 2005, SANParks put forward a recommendation to the Minister of Environmental Affairs and Tourism that culling be resumed (Mabunda, 2005), as envisaged by the Policy for Elephant Management in Kruger National Park (South African National Parks, 2004b). A decision was postponed pending further consultation with an international panel of elephant experts. In 2006, the panel issued a statement of scientific consensus which, rather than supporting a particular management action, recommended the establishment of a long-term research programme to better understand the consequences of any management action that may be taken. Range Data South Africa’s elephants are confined to protected areas and private reserves, largely in the north and east of the country, although some populations remain – and others are being newly established – in the far south. The largest portion of elephant range falls within and around Kruger National Park, from where most of the elephants in populations elsewhere in the country have been translocated. Some new areas of KNOWN range have been added to the AED as a result of recent translocations and new information. These include the Kapama, Kwandwe, Kariega, Shamwari, Lalibela, Mthetomusha and Great Fish River Game Reserves. Population Data A complete update of all populations in South Africa has been obtained from SANParks (Whyte, 2006) and the Elephant Management and Owners Association (Elephant Management and Owners Association, 2005). Most surveys in South Africa are aerial total counts conducted from helicopters, and therefore appear under the DEFINITE category in the summary table. The estimates for some reserves for which detailed census methods could not be obtained have been classified as INFORMED GUESSES. At the request of their owners, private reserves holding 50 or fewer elephants are grouped under one overall estimate and are not shown on the map. The elephant population in Kruger National Park and its environs has continued to grow in recent years. At the time of the 2005 census, the population in the park stood at 12,467 elephants (I.J. Whyte, pers. comm., 2005), up by nearly 2,000 from the figure of 10,459 featured in the previous report. The slightly lower estimate of 12,427 from the 2006 survey (Whyte, 2006), featured in this report, is likely to have resulted from net emigration to neighbouring private reserves and the Limpopo National Park in Mozambique. The population in the entire Kruger ecosystem, including the surrounding private reserves, increased from 12,439 in 2002, to 14,735 in 2005 (I.J. Whyte, pers. comm., 2005), and then to 15,387 in 2006 (Whyte, 2006). 144 SOUTH AFRICA | SOUTHERN AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 The population at Addo Elephant National Park has also continued to increase, from 337 in 2002 to 459 in 2005. As a result of higher estimates from these and other populations, the number of elephants in the DEFINITE category has increased by nearly 3,800 compared to the previous report. Cross-border Movements Movement of elephants out of Kruger National Park into Mozambique is reported to have increased recently (Anderson, quest. reply, 2005), facilitated by the removal of an additional 30 km of the fence that separates Kruger from Limpopo National Park in Mozambique. Elephants from Botswana and possibly Zimbabwe have moved into the Mapungubwe National Park, raising some concern about their potential impact on woodlands (South African National Parks, 2006). African Elephant Status Report 2007 SOUTHERN AFRICA | SOUTH AFRICA 145 SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEData Category DEFINITE SUMMARY TOTALS FOR SOUTH AFRICA 00017,501Aerial or Ground Total Counts 226380346Informed Guesses 17,847 0 638 22TOTALS 2006 TOTALS 2002 14,071 0 855 0 INTERPRETATION OF CHANGES IN ESTIMATES FROM PREVIOUS REPORT SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEDEFINITECause of Change Repeat Survey +3,489 0 0 0 New Population +180 0 0 0 Different Technique +71 0 -100 0 New Guess +36 0 -51 +22 Population Lost 0 0 -66 0 TOTAL CHANGE +3,776 0 -217 +22 AREA OF RANGE COVERED BY EACH DATA CATEGORY (km²) 29,204 1,251 30,455 29,204 1,251 30,455TOTAL Informed Guesses Aerial or Ground Total Counts Total RangeKnown RangeData Category 146 SOUTH AFRICA | SOUTHERN AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 AREA (km²) INPUT ZONE ESTIMATE 95% C.L. SOURCE NUMBER OF ELEPHANTS SOUTH AFRICA: ELEPHANT ESTIMATES LAT.LON. MAP LOCATION TYPE RELIAB. SURVEY DETAILS² YEAR CAUSE OF CHANGE¹ PFS³ 1,250Addo Elephant National Park 2005 459 EMOA, 2005AIR1 25.5 E 33.3 SRS 2 136Atherstone Nature Reserve 2005 60 EMOA, 2005AAT3 26.8 E 24.5 SRS 3 400Balule Nature Reserve 2006 457 Whyte, 2006AAT3 31.0 E 24.2 SRS 3 440Great Fish River Reserve Complex 2005 2 EMOA, 2005AIR1 26.8 E 33.1 SNP 3 539Greater St Lucia Wetland Park (Managed Nature Reserve) 2005 45 EMOA, 2005AAT3 32.5 E 27.9 SRS 3 22* 965Hluhluwe-Imfolozi Game Reserve 2004 346 EMOA, 2005DIG3 31.9 E 28.3 SNG 2 297Itala Nature Reserve 2005 84 EMOA, 2005AGT1 31.3 E 27.5 SRS 3 246Kapama Private Game Reserve 2005 36 EMOA, 2005AIR1 31.1 E 24.4 SNP 3 190Kariega Private Game Reserve 2005 11 EMOA, 2005AIR1 26.7 E 33.5 SNP 3 628Klaserie Private Nature Reserve 2006 569 Whyte, 2006AAT2 31.2 E 24.2 SRS 2 126Knysna Forest Reserve 2005 4 EMOA, 2005AIR1 23.0 E 34.0 SRS 3 19,624Kruger National Park 2006 12,427 Whyte, 2006AAT2 31.5 E 24.0 SRS 1 158Kwandwe Private Game Reserve 2005 29 EMOA, 2005AIR1 26.6 E 33.1 SNP 3 75Lalibela Private Game Reserve 2005 11 EMOA, 2005AIR1 26.2 E 33.5 SNP 3 420Letaba Game Ranch 2006 0 Whyte, 2006AGT1 31.1 E 23.7 SPL 700Madikwe Nature Reserve 2005 455 EMOA, 2005AAT3 26.3 E 24.8 SRS 2 140Makalali Private Game Reserve 2005 72 EMOA, 2005AGT1 30.7 E 24.2 SRS 3 165Makuya National Park 2006 54 Whyte, 2006AAT2 30.9 E 22.6 SRS 3 228Manyeleti Game Reserve 2006 71 Whyte, 2006AAT2 31.5 E 24.6 SDT 3 380Marakele National Park 2005 110 EMOA, 2005AIR1 27.6 E 24.4 SRS 3 380Mkuzi Game Reserve 2005 37 EMOA, 2005AIR1 32.3 E 27.7 SRS 3 80Mthetomusha Nature Reserve 2005 30 EMOA, 2005AIR1 31.3 E 25.5 SNP 3 41Phalaborwa Mining Company 2006 77 Whyte, 2006AAT2 31.2 E 24.0 SRS 4 553Pilanesberg National Park 2005 140 EMOA, 2005AAT3 27.1 E 25.2 SRS 3 119Pongola Nature Reserve 2005 55 EMOA, 2005AIR1 32.0 E 27.4 SRS 3 4,000Private Reserves 2005 578 EMOA, 2005DIG3 Not ShownNG 1 572Sabie Sands Game Reserve 2006 857 Whyte, 2006AAT2 31.5 E 24.8 SRS 3 300Selati Game Reserve 2005 85 EMOA, 2005AGT1 30.8 E 24.0 SRS 3 200Shamwari Game Reserve 2005 61 EMOA, 2005AIR1 26.1 E 33.4 SNP 3 490Songimvelo Game Reserve 2005 60 EMOA, 2005DIG3 31.0 E 26.0 SNG 2 300Tembe Elephant Park 2005 167 Morley, 2005AIR1 32.5 E 26.9 SRS 3 494Timbavati Private Nature Reserve 2006 712 Whyte, 2006AAT2 31.3 E 24.4 SRS 3 144Umbabat Private Nature Reserve 2006 163 Whyte, 2006AAT2 31.4 E 24.1 SRS 3 91Venetia-Limpopo National Park 2005 61 EMOA, 2005AAT3 29.3 E 22.2 SRS 3 330Welgevonden Private Game Reserve 2005 100 EMOA, 2005AAT3 27.8 E 24.3 SRS 3 * Range of informed guess ¹ Key to Causes of Change: DA: Different Area; DD: Data Degraded; DT: Different Technique; NA: New Analysis; NG: New Guess; NP: New population; PL: Population Lost; RS: Repeat Survey (RS´ denotes a repeat survey that is not statistically comparable for reasons such as different season); –––: No Change ² Key to Survey Types: AS: Aerial Sample Count; AT: Aerial Total Count; DC: Dung Count; GD: Genetic Dung Count; GS: Ground Sample Count; GT: Ground Total Count; IG: Informed Guess; IR: Individual Registration; OG: Other Guess. Survey Type is followed by an indicator of survey quality, ranked from 1 to 3 (best to worst). Survey Reliability is keyed A-E (best to worst) ³ PFS: Priority for Future Surveys, ranked from 1 to 5 (highest to lowest). Based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of national range accounted for by the site in question, PFS is a measure of the importance and urgency for future population surveys. All areas of unassessed range have a priority of 1. See Introduction for details on how the PFS is derived. African Elephant Status Report 2007 SOUTHERN AFRICA | SOUTH AFRICA 147 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! D D D !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P!P !P !! ! ! ! !P Chipinge SA Munyawana Malolotja N#a- Jaqna Kapama Mthetomusha Mkuzi Lalibela Kwandwe Kariega Great Fish River Shamwari Rest of Northern Botswana Nxai Pan & Makgadikgadi Okavango Delta Malipati Tembe Nyae Nyae Limpopo Banhine Gonarezhou Malilangwe Sengwe Mambali Maramani Bubi Valley Bubiana Shangani Knysna Venetia- Limpopo Greater St Lucia Songimvelo Balule Selati MakalaliWelgevonden Addo Elephant Hluhluwe-Imfolozi Itala Pongola Mkhaya Maputo GR & Futi Hlane Pilanesberg Sabie Sands Madikwe Manyeleti Atherstone Marakele Timbavati Umbabat Klaserie Phalaborwa Letaba Makuya Kruger Tuli Tuli Circle Mahenye Chiredzi River Save Valley Matabeleland Zimbabwe South Africa Namibia Mozambiq Lesotho Botswana Bulawayo MBABANE Cape Town Port Elizabeth Durban Bloemfontein Johannesburg PRETORIA (Tshwane) Pietersburg Keetmanshoop WINDHOEK Otjiwarongo MAPUTO GABORONE Maun Ghanzi Francistown Lobatse 17°E 17°E 18°E 18°E 19°E 19°E 20°E 20°E 21°E 21°E 22°E 22°E 23°E 23°E 24°E 24°E 25°E 25°E 26°E 26°E 27°E 27°E 28°E 28°E 29°E 29°E 30°E 30°E 31°E 31°E 32°E 32°E 33°E 33°E 37°S 37°S 36°S 36°S 35°S 35°S 34°S 34°S 33°S 33°S 32°S 32°S 31°S 31°S 30°S 30°S 29°S 29°S 28°S 28°S 27°S 27°S 26°S 26°S 25°S 25°S 24°S 24°S 23°S 23°S 22°S 22°S 21°S 21°S 20°S 20°S S o u t h A f r i c aS o u t h A f r i c a This map is unprojected. Scale is indicative only. See Appendix IV for protected area abbreviations. Sources: African Elephant Database Digital Chart of the World African Elephant Specialist Group International Boundary Rivers & Lakes !P Towns Protected Areas Input Zones (variable hatching) Elephant Range Known Possible ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Doubtful D Sighting/sign 0 410 820205 km SwazilandSwaziland 148 SWAZILAND | SOUTHERN AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 S W A Z I L A N D General Statistics Country area: 17,360 km² Range area (% of country): 50 km² (1%) Protected area coverage (% of country): 5% Protected range (% of known and possible range in protected areas): 81% Information Quality Index (IQI): 1.00 CITES Appendix: I Listing Year: 1989 Current Issues Conservation priorities in the Hlane and Mkhaya parks concentrate on the black rhino population and treenesting vultures, and the management aims to minimize impact on these species by controlling elephant numbers (Reilly, quest. reply, 2005). Three elephants in Malolotja Nature Reserve, originally from the adjacent Songimvelo Nature Reserve in South Africa, are reported to be coming into conflict with communities to the east of the reserve (Reilly, quest. reply, 2005) and to be causing some impact on the woodland within Malolotja (Mtui & Owen-Smith, 2006). There is ongoing controversy between the Swaziland National Trust Commission (SNTC), Yonge Nawe – a local environmental NGO – and Big Game Parks of Swaziland (BGP), which manages the Hlane and Mkhaya parks. SNTC and Yonge Nawe have challenged the status of BGP as Swaziland’s delegated CITES national management and scientific authority and have questioned plans for the enlargement of Mkhaya (Douglas Consulting & LKM, 2004; Reilly, quest. reply, 2005). Range Data Elephant distribution is well understood in Swaziland, being mainly restricted to fenced enclosures within Hlane Royal National Park and Mkhaya Game Reserve. The enclosures only occupy a fraction of the reserves (6% and 19% respectively). Three elephants from Songimvelo Game Reserve in South Africa use the Komati Valley in the Malolotja Nature Reserve as part of their range (Reilly, quest. reply, 2005). This area has been added to the map as KNOWN range. Population Data Individual registration of all elephants is maintained for the Hlane and Mkhaya populations. Eleven elephants from these two reserves were exported to zoos in the United States in 2003 (Reilly, quest. reply, 2005). The consequent reduction in the population figures from the 39 reported in the AESR 2002 is reflected in the summary table. An estimate of three elephants from Malolotja Nature Reserve has been added to the table of estimates (Reilly, quest. reply, 2005). Cross-border Movements In January 2005 an elephant from the Pongola Nature Reserve in South Africa crossed into Swaziland near Lavumisa and moved north past Maloma to Kubuta, where it turned back and returned to Pongola after being radio-collared in Swaziland (Reilly, quest. reply, 2005). African Elephant Status Report 2007 SOUTHERN AFRICA | SWAZILAND 149 SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEData Category DEFINITE SUMMARY TOTALS FOR SWAZILAND 00028Aerial or Ground Total Counts 0003Informed Guesses 31 0 0 0TOTALS 2006 TOTALS 2002 39 0 0 0 INTERPRETATION OF CHANGES IN ESTIMATES FROM PREVIOUS REPORT SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEDEFINITECause of Change Repeat Survey -11 0 0 0 New Population +3 0 0 0 TOTAL CHANGE -8 0 0 0 AREA OF RANGE COVERED BY EACH DATA CATEGORY (km²) 22 28 50 22 28 50TOTAL Informed Guesses Aerial or Ground Total Counts Total RangeKnown RangeData Category 150 SWAZILAND | SOUTHERN AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 AREA (km²) INPUT ZONE ESTIMATE 95% C.L. SOURCE NUMBER OF ELEPHANTS SWAZILAND: ELEPHANT ESTIMATES LAT.LON. MAP LOCATION TYPE RELIAB. SURVEY DETAILS² YEAR CAUSE OF CHANGE¹ PFS³ 142Hlane Royal National Park 2005 13 Reilly, quest. reply, 2005AIR1 31.9 E 26.3 SRS 1 28Malolotja Nature Reserve 2005 3 Reilly, quest. reply, 2005DIG3 31.1 E 26.0 SNP 1 65Mkhaya Nature Reserve 2005 15 Reilly, quest. reply, 2005AIR1 31.7 E 26.6 SRS 1 ¹ Key to Causes of Change: DA: Different Area; DD: Data Degraded; DT: Different Technique; NA: New Analysis; NG: New Guess; NP: New population; PL: Population Lost; RS: Repeat Survey (RS´ denotes a repeat survey that is not statistically comparable for reasons such as different season); –––: No Change ² Key to Survey Types: AS: Aerial Sample Count; AT: Aerial Total Count; DC: Dung Count; GD: Genetic Dung Count; GS: Ground Sample Count; GT: Ground Total Count; IG: Informed Guess; IR: Individual Registration; OG: Other Guess. Survey Type is followed by an indicator of survey quality, ranked from 1 to 3 (best to worst). Survey Reliability is keyed A-E (best to worst) ³ PFS: Priority for Future Surveys, ranked from 1 to 5 (highest to lowest). Based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of national range accounted for by the site in question, PFS is a measure of the importance and urgency for future population surveys. All areas of unassessed range have a priority of 1. See Introduction for details on how the PFS is derived. African Elephant Status Report 2007 SOUTHERN AFRICA | SWAZILAND 151 !P !P !P !P !P !P Kom ati Malolotja Songimvelo Pongola Mkhaya Hlane South Africa Swaziland Mozambique Kubuta Maloma Lavumisa Manzini Siteki MBABANE 31°E 31°E 32°E 32°E 27°S 27°S 26°S 26°S S w a z i l a n dS w a z i l a n d This map is unprojected. Scale is indicative only. See Appendix IV for protected area abbreviations. Sources: African Elephant Database Digital Chart of the World African Elephant Specialist Group International Boundary Rivers & Lakes !P Towns Protected Areas Input Zones (variable hatching) Elephant Range Known Possible ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Doubtful D Sighting/sign 0 40 8020 km 152 ZAMBIA | SOUTHERN AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 Z A M B I A General Statistics Country area: 752,610 km² Range area (% of country): 201,247 km² (28%) Protected area coverage (% of country): 31% Protected range (% of known and possible range in protected areas): 77% Information Quality Index (IQI): 0.47 CITES Appendix: I Listing Year: 1989 Current Issues In 2003 Zambia developed a national Elephant Policy and Action Plan (Ministry of Tourism, Environment and Natural Resources, 2003). The policy identifies human-elephant conflict and poaching as the major threats to elephant populations in Zambia, and proposes improved land use planning, decentralized decision-making processes and revenue sharing from the sustainable use of elephants as the principal means to mitigate these problems. As envisaged by the policy, and after a ban of 21 years, sport hunting of elephants was reopened in August 2005, and Zambia notified the CITES Secretariat that it would maintain an annual export quota of 40 tusks (20 animals) as hunting trophies (UNEP-WCMC, 2006). Range Data Elephants in Zambia are distributed in four major populations, namely in the Luangwa Valley, the Kafue ecosystem and nearby West Lunga, the Lower Zambezi Valley and Sioma Ngwezi and its environs. A number of smaller populations are scattered along the country’s borders. The shape of the range map for Zambia has not changed substantially since the last report, but a number of areas have been categorized as DOUBTFUL range. These include an area along the shores of Lake Kariba (G.C. Craig, pers. comm., 2006; Ministry of Tourism, Environment and Natural Resources, 2003), a strip adjacent to the Mukungule Game Management Area (E. van der Westhuizen, pers. comm., 2006), and two areas on the eastern side of the Luangwa Valley, where human population density is estimated to exceed 15 persons per km² (ORNL/GIST, 2002; see Introduction section for details on rationale). Population Data Most of the Luangwa Valley has been systematically surveyed in the last five years. Two aerial sample counts were conducted in North Luangwa National Park and surrounding areas, in 2003 (van der Westhuizen, 2003) and 2005. The result from the latter survey, however, is believed to be a considerable overestimate, perhaps caused by the use of a different survey crew (E. van der Westhuizen, pers. comm., 2006). For this reason, the results of the 2003 survey have been used in this report, replacing an aerial total count conducted in 2000 (Aucamp, 2000). The elephant population in North Luangwa is currently believed to be stable or increasing (E. van der Westhuizen, pers. comm., 2006). A 2004 aerial sample count covered several game management areas in the Luangwa Valley (Simwanza, 2004b). This survey excluded the Luambe National Park, last surveyed by Jachmann (1999a), when it was counted as a single block together with the southern sector of Lumimba Game Management Area. This southern sector was included in the 2004 survey and appears on the table as Mwanya hunting block. Despite occasional sightings, elephants have been largely absent from Luambe National Park for many years. For this reason, the 1999 estimate for Luambe has been removed from the table of estimates. There are nevertheless reports that elephants are beginning to return to Luambe, and it would be important for this park to be systematically surveyed as part of an ecosystem-wide survey of the Luangwa Valley. African Elephant Status Report 2007 SOUTHERN AFRICA | ZAMBIA 153 SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEData Category DEFINITE SUMMARY TOTALS FOR ZAMBIA 05,8995,89916,229Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts 094927Other Dung Counts 000306Informed Guesses 813000Other Guesses 16,562 5,948 5,908 813TOTALS 2006 TOTALS 2002 12,457 6,961 7,631 235 INTERPRETATION OF CHANGES IN ESTIMATES FROM PREVIOUS REPORT SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEDEFINITECause of Change Repeat Survey +1,953 +37 -45 0 New Population +36 -85 +179 0 Different Technique -41 +1,100 -1,632 0 Different Area +1,806 -2,029 -231 0 New Guess +326 0 0 +119 New Analysis +29 -37 +5 +477 Data Degraded -3 0 0 -19 TOTAL CHANGE +4,105 -1,013 -1,723 +578 AREA OF RANGE COVERED BY EACH DATA CATEGORY (km²) 109,944 482 75 6,851 1,204 118,556 5,143 0 0 734 76,814 82,692 115,087 482 75 7,585 78,018 201,247TOTAL Unassessed Range Other Guesses Informed Guesses Other Dung Counts Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts Total RangePossible RangeKnown RangeData Category 154 ZAMBIA | SOUTHERN AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 AREA (km²) INPUT ZONE ESTIMATE 95% C.L. SOURCE NUMBER OF ELEPHANTS ZAMBIA: ELEPHANT ESTIMATES LAT.LON. MAP LOCATION TYPE RELIAB. SURVEY DETAILS² YEAR CAUSE OF CHANGE¹ PFS³ 81 600Chanjuzi Hunting Block 2004 65 Simwanza, 2004bBAS3 32.6 E 12.3 SRS 3 53 900Chiawa Game Management Area 2003 45 Dunham, 2004aBAS2 28.9 E 15.8 SRS 3 155 750Chisomo & Sandwe Game Management Area 1999 128 Jachmann & Phiri, 1999aBAS2 30.9 E 13.8 S––– 3 840Isangano National Park 1993 3 Tembo, quest. reply, 1993EGT1 30.6 E 11.2 SDD 3 3,860Kafinde Game Management Area 1991 50 Tembo, quest. reply, 1993EIG3 30.1 E 12.4 S––– 2 5,227 22,400Kafue National Park 2004 6,306 Simwanza, 2004aBAS2 25.9 E 15.2 SDA 2 9 390Kasanka National Park 1999 76 Jachmann & Phiri, 1999bCDC2 30.2 E 12.6 SNA 3 378 7,780Kasonso-Busanga Game Management Area 2004 401 Simwanza, 2004aBAS2 25.6 E 14.1 SRS 2 15Katokota Game Ranch 1991 19 Tembo, quest. reply, 1993EAT3 28.0 E 16.8 S––– 5 1,500Lavushi Manda National Park 1991 15 Tembo, quest. reply, 1993EIG3 30.8 E 12.4 S––– 3 744 4,084Lower Zambezi National Park 2003 1,477 Dunham, 2004aBAS2 29.7 E 15.5 SRS 2 8,930Luano Game Management Area 1996 150 Jachmann, 1996EIG3 29.6 E 14.8 S––– 2 652 1,092Luawata Hunting Block 2003 968 van der Westhuizen, 2003BAS2 31.9 E 12.3 SRS 3 0 3,200Lukusuzi National Park 2005 0 Fourie et al., 2005BAS1 32.6 E 12.8 SRS 169 13,340Lunga-Luswishi Game Management Area 2004 195 Simwanza, 2004aBAS2 26.9 E 13.8 SRS 2 586 4,959Lupande Game Management Area 2002 975 Dunham & Simwanza, 2002BAS2 32.0 E 13.3 S––– 2 66Mosi-oa-Tunya National Park 2006 306 Chase, 2006DIG3 25.8 E 17.9 SNG 4 119 788Mukungule Game Management Area 2003 156 van der Westhuizen, 2003BAS2 32.0 E 11.7 SRS 3 96 3,420Mulobezi Game Management Area 2004 55 Simwanza, 2004aBAS2 25.4 E 16.5 SRS 2 208 3,370Mumbwa Game Management Area 2004 181 Simwanza, 2004aBAS2 26.4 E 15.1 SDT 2 898 2,190Musalangu Game Management Area 2004 1,011 Simwanza, 2004bBAS2 32.8 E 11.2 SDA 3 237 860Mwanya Hunting Block 2004 503 Simwanza, 2004bBAS3 32.3 E 12.7 SDA 3 7,274Mweru wa Ntipa Ecosystem 2003 0 Simwanza, 2003BAS2 29.8 E 8.7 SNP 134 3,600Namwala Game Management Area 2004 127 Simwanza, 2004aBAS2 26.3 E 15.5 SDT 2 25Nchete Island Wildlife Sanctuary 1991 49 Tembo, quest. reply, 1993EAT3 27.6 E 17.4 S––– 4 306 194Nkala Game Management Area 2004 210 Simwanza, 2004aBAS2 26.0 E 16.0 SNP 4 695 4,688North Luangwa National Park 2003 3,235 van der Westhuizen, 2003BAS3 32.2 E 11.9 SRS 2 92 2,063Nsumbu National Park 2003 65 Simwanza, 2003BAS2 30.4 E 8.8 SDT 3 133 330Nyampala Game Management Area 2004 284 Simwanza, 2004bBAS2 31.7 E 12.5 SDA 4 3,128Rufunsa Game Management Area 2003 0 Dunham, 2004aBAS2 30.0 E 15.2 SRS 10Sekula Island Wildlife Sanctuary 1991 7 Tembo, quest. reply, 1993EAT3 27.5 E 17.4 S––– 5 3,600Sichifulo Game Management Area 2004 0 Simwanza, 2004aBAS2 25.7 E 16.8 SRS 371 4,377Sioma Ngwezi National Park 2005 385 Chase & Griffin, 2005bBAS2 23.4 E 17.3 SRS 2 1,519 8,448South Luangwa National Park 2002 4,459 Dunham & Simwanza, 2002BAS2 31.6 E 13.1 S––– 2 1,684West Lunga National Park 1996 520 C.M. Phiri, pers. comm., 1998EAS3 24.8 E 12.8 S––– 3 1,399 905West Petauke Game Management Area 1999 897 Jachmann & Phiri, 1999aBAS2 30.3 E 14.3 S––– 3 African Elephant Status Report 2007 SOUTHERN AFRICA | ZAMBIA 155 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 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! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! D !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P Congo C uando Zam beze Lomami Cassai G reatRuaha L. Cabora Bassa L. Kariba L.Malawi L.Mweru L. Rukwa L.Tanganyka Deka SA Charara SA Bilili Springs GMA Mamili NP Kazuma Pan NP Victoria Falls NM Mudumo NP Umfuli RP Mana Pools NP Luambe NP Bwabwata NP Kaluanyembe GMA West Zambezi GMA Chizera GMA Lukwakwa GMA Musele-Matebo GMA Chibwika-Ntambu GMA Bangweulu GMA Kaputa GMA Moremi GR Lukwati GR Rungwa GR Chewore IV Mukwiche Doma Nkala Kafue Musalangu Mwanya Luiana (West) Luiana (East) Rest of Northern Botswana Chobe Okavango Delta Zambezi Valley Moribane- Chimanimani Upemba Cabora Bassa North Piti East Chanjuzi Kavira Nyatana Shangani Protea Farm Matabeleland Ngamo & Sikumi Hwange Lusulu Mosi-oa-Tunya Matetsi HartleyChirisa Chizarira Sijarira Sekula Island Nchete Island North Gokwe Chete Binga Sioma Ngwezi Katokota Matusadona Kariba Sichifulo Mavuradonha Mulobezi Nyampala Chiawa Namwala Lower Zambezi RufunsaMumbwa Luano West Petauke Kasonso- Busanga Chisomo& SandweLunga- Luswishi Lupande West Lunga Nkhota-Kota KasunguLukusuzi Kasanka South Luangwa Lavushi MandaKafinde North Luangwa Magoe Isangano Vwaza Marsh Nyika Nsumbu Tete Manica Sofala Caprivi Mweru wa Ntipa Mukungule Ruaha- Rungwa Bushimae Katavi-Rukwa Luawata Zimbabwe Zambia Tanzania Namibia Mozambique Malawi Democratic Republic of Congo Botswana Angola Mutare HARARE Kariba Chipata Mongu Ndola LUSAKA Livingstone Tete LILONGWE Lubumbashi Kasane 22°E 22°E 23°E 23°E 24°E 24°E 25°E 25°E 26°E 26°E 27°E 27°E 28°E 28°E 29°E 29°E 30°E 30°E 31°E 31°E 32°E 32°E 33°E 33°E 19°S 19°S 18°S 18°S 17°S 17°S 16°S 16°S 15°S 15°S 14°S 14°S 13°S 13°S 12°S 12°S 11°S 11°S 10°S 10°S 9°S 9°S 8°S 8°S 7°S 7°S Z a m b i aZ a m b i a This map is unprojected. Scale is indicative only. See Appendix IV for protected area abbreviations. Sources: African Elephant Database Digital Chart of the World African Elephant Specialist Group International Boundary Rivers & Lakes !P Towns Protected Areas Input Zones (variable hatching) Elephant Range Known Possible ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Doubtful D Sighting/sign 0 300 600150 km 156 ZAMBIA | SOUTHERN AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 South Luangwa National Park has not been surveyed since 2002, and the estimate shown on the table has been retained from the previous report. A 2005 aerial survey of Lukusuzi National Park failed to find any elephants in the park (Fourie et al., 2005), and an estimate of zero appears on the table. An aerial sample count was conducted in the Kafue ecosystem in 2004 (Simwanza, 2004a). Estimates from this survey replace a number of ground and aerial sample counts conducted between 1997 and 2001 (Fairall & Kampamba, 2001; Jachmann, 2000; Zyambo, 1997). Another aerial sample count covering much of Kafue National Park, conducted in two stages between September and November 2004, gave a combined estimate of 1510 ± 61 (van Aarde & Guldemond, 2004; van Aarde et al., 2004). Elephant density for the extreme northern sector of the park, which was not covered in the survey, was extrapolated from the rest of the survey area to yield an overall estimate of 1,738 ± 355. This survey, however, suffered from technical and design limitations, and has not been used for this report. The Lower Zambezi National Park was surveyed, together with its surrounding Game Management Areas, as part of a 2003 transboundary survey that also covered adjacent areas in Mozambique and Zimbabwe (Dunham, 2004a). The results of this survey replace estimates from methodologically comparable surveys conducted by Phiri (1996). These areas were surveyed again in 2005, but a survey report had not been produced at the time of writing. Three aerial sample counts were conducted in Sioma Ngwezi National Park since the last report: one in January 2004, which returned an estimate of 1,212 ± 920 (Chase et al., 2004), another in August 2004 (899 ± 755) and a third in November 2005 (385 ± 389) (Chase & Griffin, 2005b). Despite being lower than the previous two, the estimate from the most recent (2005) survey is shown in the table of estimates. The use of this result, which replaces an estimate of 250 (Mwiya, 1996) is justified by the fact that none of the differences between the estimates from the last three surveys are statistically significant. This lack of significance is due to the wide confidence limits in all three estimates, which may have been brought about by elephant distribution clustering around the centre of the park (Chase et al., 2004). The Mweru wa Ntipa ecosystem was surveyed in its entirety for the first time in 2003 (Simwanza, 2003). The survey also covered the Nsumbu National Park, the population of which had last been estimated at 45 in 1998 (L. Saiwana, pers. comm., 1998). The number of elephants in the DEFINITE category has increased by over 4,100 from the previous report, whereas the PROBABLE and POSSIBLE categories have declined by about 1,000 and 1,700 respectively. These changes arise from methodologically comparable surveys, as well as from surveys conducted over different areas or using different techniques. While nearly 60% of Zambia’s estimated elephant range is currently covered by good quality estimates, no figures are available for most of the remaining range. It is likely, however, that a more detailed knowledge of elephant presence around protected areas will cause the proportion of unassessed range to decline. Cross-border Movements Elephant range in southwestern Zambia is contiguous with range in Angola’s Luiana Reserve (Chase & Griffin, 2005b) and with northern Botswana through the Caprivi Strip in Namibia. Elephant movement also occurs between Zambia, Zimbabwe and Mozambique in the Zambezi Valley. It is not known whether movement continues between the North Luangwa ecosystem and Kasungu National Park in Malawi. African Elephant Status Report 2007 SOUTHERN AFRICA | ZIMBABWE 157 Z I M B A B W E General Statistics Country area: 390,580 km² Range area (% of country): 76,931 km² (29%) Protected area coverage (% of country): 13% Protected range (% of known and possible range in protected areas): 58% Information Quality Index (IQI): 0.91 CITES Appendix: II Listing Year: 1997 Current Issues The Department of National Parks and Wildlife Management completed its transition into the present National Parks and Wildlife Management Authority (NPWMA) in 2004. The new authority is no longer funded from the national budget and must raise its own revenue. Major cuts in NPWMA’s operating budget have been necessitated by a decline in tourist revenues in recent years, and this has resulted in a decreased capacity to manage elephant populations. Three consecutive droughts between 2002 and 2005 caused a number of elephants in Hwange and other areas to die of starvation (Dunham et al., 2006b). This, together with reports of an increasing incidence in human-elephant conflict, kindled the debate on whether elephant numbers should be reduced through culling. Poaching in the Sebungwe region is reported to have increased in recent years. A recent survey of the area recorded a 2.5-fold increase in the number of dead elephants since 2001, suggesting a notable increase in elephant mortality in the last five years. A high incidence in illegal activity was also recorded in parts of survey zone, suggesting that illegal killing is at least partly responsible for the estimated increase in elephant mortality (Dunham et al., 2006a). Range Data The majority of Zimbabwe’s elephants are found in and around protected areas along the borders with neighbouring countries. There are four major populations, namely Northwest Matabeleland, Sebungwe, the Zambezi Valley and Gonarezhou. Most of the central highveld and eastern highlands are extensively settled and farmed, and have long been devoid of elephants. All areas previously depicted as POSSIBLE range have been categorized as DOUBTFUL based on Landscan 2002 human population density data (ORNL/GIST, 2002; see Introduction section for rationale) and information provided by C. Craig (2006). The area corresponding to Matibi II communal lands was incorrectly depicted as range in previous reports, but now appears as DOUBTFUL range. No other changes have been made to the range map. Population Data A survey of Northwest Matabeleland in 2006 could not be completed due to technical difficulties, and only covered 65% of the area surveyed in previous counts (Dunham et al., 2006b). The estimate for the areas covered, which excluded the northern sectors of Hwange National Park and the Matetsi complex, was 25,087 ± 5,301. This is not significantly different from the estimate of 26,602 ± 4,155 for the exact same areas obtained in the previous survey, conducted in 2001 (Dunham, 2002). In view of this, estimates from the 2001 survey have been retained from the previous report. Nevertheless, it is worth noting that the 2006 survey recorded a considerable increase in the carcass ratio (i.e., the proportion of dead to dead plus live elephants), from 3.2% in 2001 to 5.6% in 2006. A tenth of the estimated number of dead elephants in the 2006 survey were found to have their tusks intact, suggesting that they may have died of natural causes, possibly drought-related (Dunham et al., 2006b). 158 ZIMBABWE | SOUTHERN AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 An aerial sample count of the Sebungwe region conducted in late 2006 (Dunham et al., 2006a) gave an overall estimate of 15,024 ± 2,133. Results from this survey replace estimates from a methodologically comparable survey conducted in 2001 (Mackie, 2002b). Although considerable increases in elephant mortality and illegal activities were recorded, with a carcass ratio of 15.6% for the study area (see Current Issues above), the estimate of live elephants in 2006 did not differ significantly from that in 2001 (Dunham et al., 2006a). The Zambezi Valley area was surveyed as part of a 2003 aerial sample count that also included adjacent populations in Mozambique and Zambia. This survey returned an estimate of 19,981 ± 2,392 for the Zimbabwe portion (Dunham, 2004a), and the estimate replaces a 2001 aerial sample count estimate of 19,227 ± 2,493. Another survey of the same area was conducted in 2005, but no report had yet been produced at the time of writing. An aerial survey of Gonarezhou was planned for 2006, but had to be postponed until 2007 due to technical difficulties. An aerial sample count of the Save Valley Conservancy, conducted in 2003, gave an estimate of 527 ± 310 (Dunham, 2003), and this replaces the previous aerial sample count estimate of 535 ± 318. Both the AED 1998 and the AESR 2002 showed an incorrect estimate of 33 elephants for Matibi II communal lands. The correct estimate of zero (Davies et al., 1996) is now shown in the table of estimates. Estimates from surveys conducted since the previous report, all of which are comparable in design and intensity to previous counts, have resulted in an increase of about 2,850 in the DEFINITE category. The marginal decline in the PROBABLE and POSSIBLE categories is brought about by a minor increase in precision and the correction of the Matibi II estimate. Cross-border Movements All of Zimbabwe's major elephant populations are located along the border with neighbouring countries, and movements can be expected to take place across all of them, except across Lake Kariba (Cumming & Jones, 2005; Dunham et al., 2006a). The population in Hwange National Park and surrounding areas is part of a much larger population that spans the borders of Zimbabwe, Botswana, Namibia (Cumming & Jones, 2005) and perhaps also Angola. Elephants are also known to move between Zimbabwe, Zambia and Mozambique along the Zambezi Valley in the north, and to Botswana and South Africa in the south (Selier et al., 2002). African Elephant Status Report 2007 SOUTHERN AFRICA | ZIMBABWE 159 SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEData Category DEFINITE SUMMARY TOTALS FOR ZIMBABWE 000236Aerial or Ground Total Counts 07,0337,03383,991Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts 913340189Informed Guesses 200000Other Guesses 84,416 7,033 7,367 291TOTALS 2006 TOTALS 2002 81,555 7,039 7,373 291 INTERPRETATION OF CHANGES IN ESTIMATES FROM PREVIOUS REPORT SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEDEFINITECause of Change Repeat Survey +2,864 -4 -4 0 New Analysis -3 -2 -2 0 TOTAL CHANGE +2,861 -6 -6 0 AREA OF RANGE COVERED BY EACH DATA CATEGORY (km²) 2,998 63,671 6,746 2,423 717 76,555 0 0 0 0 375 375 2,998 63,671 6,746 2,423 1,092 76,931TOTAL Unassessed Range Other Guesses Informed Guesses Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts Aerial or Ground Total Counts Total RangePossible RangeKnown RangeData Category 160 ZIMBABWE | SOUTHERN AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 AREA (km²) INPUT ZONE ESTIMATE 95% C.L. SOURCE NUMBER OF ELEPHANTS ZIMBABWE: ELEPHANT ESTIMATES LAT.LON. MAP LOCATION TYPE RELIAB. SURVEY DETAILS² YEAR CAUSE OF CHANGE¹ PFS³ 373 2,217Binga Communal Lands 2006 431 Dunham et al., 2006aBAS2 27.9 E 17.4 SRS 2 2,895Bubi Valley Conservancy 2001 53 Dunham & Mackie, 2002DIG3 30.1 E 21.5 S––– 2 50* 1,772Bubiana Conservancy 2001 50 Dunham & Mackie, 2002DIG3 29.8 E 21.1 S––– 2 310 1,260Chete Safari Area 2006 971 Dunham et al., 2006aBAS2 27.8 E 17.4 SRS 3 335 610Chewore IV 2001 580 Mackie, 2002aBAS1 29.9 E 16.2 S––– 3 895Chiredzi River Conservancy 2001 28 Dunham & Mackie, 2002AGT1 31.6 E 20.8 S––– 3 1,260 1,529Chirisa Safari Area 2006 4,231 Dunham et al., 2006aBAS2 28.3 E 17.9 SRS 2 1,117 2,084Chizarira National Park 2006 3,071 Dunham et al., 2006aBAS1 27.9 E 17.8 SRS 2 383 975Doma Safari Area 2001 336 Mackie, 2002aBAS2 30.2 E 16.4 S––– 3 1,577 4,987Gonarezhou National Park 2001 4,987 Dunham & Mackie, 2002BAS2 31.9 E 21.6 S––– 2 20* 445Hartley Safari Area 2001 100 Dunham & Mackie, 2002DIG3 29.6 E 17.9 S––– 3 1* 60Home Farm & Greystone Ranches 2001 3 Dunham & Mackie, 2002DIG3 27.9 E 20.8 S––– 4 5,770 12,900Hwange National Park & Safari Area 2001 44,492 Dunham & Mackie, 2002BAS2 26.6 E 19.1 S––– 2 1,033 3,224Kariba Communal Lands 2006 3,715 Dunham et al., 2006aBAS2 28.4 E 17.1 SRS 2 287Kavira Forest Land 2001 100 Dunham & Mackie, 2002DIG3 27.0 E 18.1 S––– 3 63 543Lusulu 2001 33 Mackie, 2002bBAS2 27.8 E 18.0 S––– 3 221Mahenye Ward 2001 0 Dunham & Mackie, 2002BAS2 32.4 E 21.2 S––– 425Malilangwe Conservancy 2001 116 Dunham & Mackie, 2002AAT3 31.9 E 21.1 S––– 3 9 175Malipati Safari Area 2001 5 Dunham & Mackie, 2002BAS2 31.4 E 21.9 S––– 3 327Mambali Communal Lands 2001 10 Dunham & Mackie, 2002AAT3 28.4 E 21.5 S––– 3 367Maramani Communal Lands 2001 0 Dunham & Mackie, 2002AAT3 29.4 E 22.1 S––– 79 3,110Matabeleland Communal Lands 2001 64 Dunham & Mackie, 2002BAS2 27.1 E 19.6 S––– 2 1,670 4,399Matetsi Safari Complex 2001 4,201 Dunham & Mackie, 2002BAS2 25.7 E 18.2 S––– 2 400Matibi II Communal Lands 1996 0 Davies et al., 1996EAS2 31.7 E 21.5 SNA 443 1,413Matusadona National Park 2006 1,925 Dunham et al., 2006aBAS2 28.6 E 17.0 SRS 2 26 617Mavuradonha Wilderness Area 2001 13 Dunham & Mackie, 2002BAS2 30.9 E 16.5 S––– 3 296 337Mukwiche Area 2001 228 Mackie, 2002aBAS1 29.9 E 16.4 S––– 3 496 2,344Ngamo & Sikumi State Forests 2001 553 Dunham & Mackie, 2002BAS2 27.3 E 18.8 S––– 2 172 3,082North Gokwe Communal Lands 2006 192 Dunham et al., 2006aBAS2 28.5 E 17.5 SRS 2 651Nyatana Wildlife Management Area 2001 150 Dunham & Mackie, 2002DIG3 32.5 E 16.7 S––– 3 14Protea Farm 2001 7 Dunham & Mackie, 2002DIG3 29.6 E 16.5 S––– 5 310 3,047Save Valley Conservancy 2003 527 Dunham, 2003BAS1 32.1 E 20.4 SRS 2 2,422Sengwe Communal Land 2001 200 Dunham & Mackie, 2002EOG3 31.3 E 22.1 S––– 2 568Sentinel & Nottingham Ranches 2001 82 Dunham & Mackie, 2002AAT3 29.6 E 22.1 S––– 3 20* 628Shangani Ranch 2001 60 Dunham & Mackie, 2002DIG3 29.3 E 19.6 S––– 3 333 270Sijarira Forest Area 2006 488 Dunham et al., 2006aBAS2 27.5 E 17.6 SRS 3 416Tuli Circle Safari Area 2001 0 Dunham & Mackie, 2002AAT3 29.1 E 22.0 S––– 2,392 16,476Zambezi Valley 2003 19,981 Dunham, 2004aBAS2 29.7 E 16.1 SRS 1 * Range of informed guess ¹ Key to Causes of Change: DA: Different Area; DD: Data Degraded; DT: Different Technique; NA: New Analysis; NG: New Guess; NP: New population; PL: Population Lost; RS: Repeat Survey (RS´ denotes a repeat survey that is not statistically comparable for reasons such as different season); –––: No Change ² Key to Survey Types: AS: Aerial Sample Count; AT: Aerial Total Count; DC: Dung Count; GD: Genetic Dung Count; GS: Ground Sample Count; GT: Ground Total Count; IG: Informed Guess; IR: Individual Registration; OG: Other Guess. Survey Type is followed by an indicator of survey quality, ranked from 1 to 3 (best to worst). Survey Reliability is keyed A-E (best to worst) ³ PFS: Priority for Future Surveys, ranked from 1 to 5 (highest to lowest). Based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of national range accounted for by the site in question, PFS is a measure of the importance and urgency for future population surveys. All areas of unassessed range have a priority of 1. See Introduction for details on how the PFS is derived. African Elephant Status Report 2007 SOUTHERN AFRICA | ZIMBABWE 161 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 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D D D !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P L. Cabora Bassa Chipinge SA Deka SA Charara SA Bilili Springs GMA Hurungwe SA Chewore SASapi SA Kazuma Pan NP Umfuli RP Mana Pools NP Kaluanyembe GMA Manjirenji RP Chewore IV Mukwiche Doma Nkala Kafue Rest of Northern Botswana Zambezi Valley Malipati Cabora Bassa North Limpopo Banhine Gonarezhou Malilangwe Sengwe Home Farm & Greystone Kavira Nyatana Mambali Sentinel & Nottingham Maramani Bubi Valley Bubiana Shangani Venetia-Limpopo Makuya Kruger Protea Farm Tuli Tuli Circle Matibi II Mahenye Chiredzi River Save Valley Matabeleland Ngamo & Sikumi Hwange Lusulu Mosi-oa-Tunya Matetsi Hartley Chirisa Chizarira Sijarira Sekula Island Nchete Island North Gokwe Chete Binga Katokota Matusadona Kariba Sichifulo MavuradonhaMulobezi Chiawa Namwala Lower Zambezi Rufunsa Mumbwa Luano West Petauke Magoe Tete Manica Caprivi Zimbabwe Zambia South Africa Mozambique Botswana Mutare Bulawayo Victoria Falls HARARE Kariba LUSAKA Livingstone Kasane Francistown 26°E 26°E 27°E 27°E 28°E 28°E 29°E 29°E 30°E 30°E 31°E 31°E 32°E 32°E 33°E 33°E 23°S 23°S 22°S 22°S 21°S 21°S 20°S 20°S 19°S 19°S 18°S 18°S 17°S 17°S 16°S 16°S 15°S 15°S Z i m b a b w eZ i m b a b w e This map is unprojected. Scale is indicative only. See Appendix IV for protected area abbreviations. Sources: African Elephant Database Digital Chart of the World African Elephant Specialist Group International Boundary Rivers & Lakes !P Towns Protected Areas Input Zones (variable hatching) Elephant Range Known Possible ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Doubtful D Sighting/sign 0 200 400100 km 162 REGIONAL OVERVIEW | WEST AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 W E S T A F R I C A R E G I O N A L O V E R V I E W General Statistics Total Area: 5,096,660 km² Range area (% of region): 175,545 km² (4%) Protected area coverage (% of region): 7% Protected range (% of known and possible range in protected areas): 56% Information Quality Index (IQI): 0.44 Current Issues The common challenges which have long been facing all West African Range States are linked to small and isolated populations surrounded by growing human populations. Human-elephant conflict and encroachment are pervasive problems throughout the region. These common challenges led to the development in 1999 of a regional strategy for the conservation of elephants in West Africa (AfESG, 1999), which has since become a reference tool for the development of elephant conservation projects and programmes throughout the region. Five action plans for the management of transfrontier elephant conservation and migration corridors in West Africa were developed in 2003 (Sebogo & Barnes, 2003). An updated version of the strategy received governmental endorsement through the signing, in November 2005, of an interstate Memorandum of Understanding under the aegis of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the Convention on Migratory Species (CMS). Through the agreement, 12 ECOWAS member states agreed to work together to protect elephant habitats, boost numbers in fragile populations and set up elephant ‘conservation corridors’ in important transboundary areas. Senegal, which did not originally sign the memorandum, has recently expressed its commitment to doing so. Many countries have continued to develop national elephant conservation strategies within the framework of the West Africa Elephant Conservation Strategy (AfESG, 1999). So far, five countries, namely, Ghana (Wildlife Division, 2000), Burkina Faso (Belemsobgo et al., 2003), Togo (Ministère de l'Environnement et des Ressources Forestières, 2003), Côte d’Ivoire (Ministère des Eaux et Forêts, 2004) and Niger (Direction de la Faune, de la Pêche et de la Pisciculture, 2004) have developed national strategies and are at various stages in their implementation; three countries (Guinea, Benin and Liberia) have successfully raised funds and organized strategic planning workshops; a further three countries (Mali, Nigeria and Sierra Leone) have embarked on the process but have yet to raise sufficient funds to hold workshops. No progress has been made in the remaining two countries (Guinea Bissau and Senegal). Range Data Elephant range in West Africa is found in small fragments scattered across the region, in forest, savanna and other habitats. It is the only region outside Central Africa where a sizeable proportion of elephant range occurs in tropical forests. While it was traditionally believed that both forest elephants (Loxodonta africana cyclotis) and savanna elephants (Loxodonta africana africana) occurred in West Africa, recent genetic evidence suggests that a single form, whose taxonomic status remains to be ascertained, is found in the region (Eggert et al., 2002). Elephant range is less extensive in West Africa than in any other region, covering approximately 175,500 km², or 5% of the continental range estimate. This estimate is about 21% less than the estimated range area for the region in the AESR 2002. The difference is due to better information, and is mainly attributable to African Elephant Status Report 2007 WEST AFRICA | REGIONAL OVERVIEW 163 SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEData Category DEFINITE SUMMARY TOTALS FOR WEST AFRICA Aerial or Ground Total Counts 6,001 0 0 0 Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts 947 375 375 0 Other Dung Counts 125 360 96 0 Informed Guesses 414 0 658 308 Other Guesses 0 0 0 2,631 TOTAL 2006 7,487 735 1,129 2,939 TOTALS 2002 5,458 1,188 3,039 3,498 INTERPRETATION OF CHANGES IN ESTIMATES FROM PREVIOUS REPORT SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEDEFINITECause of Change Repeat Survey +13 0 0 0 New Population +30 0 +9 +12 Different Technique +1,963 -453 -1,732 -485 New Guess +22 0 +13 -107 Population Lost 0 0 0 -159 Data Degraded 0 0 -200 +181 TOTAL CHANGE +2,029 -559-1,910-453 AREA OF RANGE COVERED BY EACH DATA CATEGORY (km²) 25,117 5,123 8,205 52,380 8,075 26,499 125,399 3,280 0 24 1,267 13,017 32,557 50,146 28,397 5,123 8,229 53,647 21,093 59,056 175,545TOTAL Unassessed Range Other Guesses Informed Guesses Other Dung Counts Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts Aerial or Ground Total Counts Total RangePossible RangeKnown RangeData Category 164 REGIONAL OVERVIEW | WEST AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 COUNTRY DEFINITE RANGE AREA (km²)SPECULATIVEPROBABLE POSSIBLE WEST AFRICA: COUNTRY AND REGIONAL TOTALS & DATA QUALITY PFS² % OF REGIONAL RANGE % OF RANGE ASSESSED IQI¹ ELEPHANT NUMBERS Benin 1,223 0 00 13,673 38 51 0.51 Burkina Faso 4,154 320 0520 19,872 211 72 0.64 Côte d'Ivoire 188 152 506119 33,985 219 72 0.25 Ghana 789 387 12241 23,301 213 42 0.35 Guinea 135 79 5779 1,524 41 78 0.47 Guinea Bissau 0 0 137 1,346 31 100 0.00 Liberia 0 0 1,6760 15,977 29 60 0.00 Mali 357 0 156141 31,878 218 100 0.55 Niger 85 0 017 2,683 32 100 0.83 Nigeria 348 0 375105 22,968 213 37 0.16 Senegal 1 0 90 1,090 41 100 0.10 Sierra Leone 0 0 13580 1,804 31 59 0.00 Togo 4 0 061 5,444 33 69 0.04 7,487 735 1,129 2,939 175,545TOTAL* 35 66 0.44 * Note that totals for the Definite, Probable and Possible categories are derived by pooling the variances of individual estimates, as described under the Data Types and Categorization section. As a result, totals do not necessarily match the simple sum of the entries within a given category. ¹ IQI: Information Quality Index. This index quantifies overall data quality at the national and regional levels based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of assessed elephant range (i.e. range for which estimates are available). The IQI ranges from zero (no reliable information) to one (perfect information). See the Introduction section for a detailed explanation of how the IQI is calculated. ² PFS: Priority for Future Surveys, ranked from 1 to 5 (highest to lowest). Based on the IQI and the proportion of continental range accounted for by the country in question, the PFS is a measure of the importance and urgency for future population surveys, particularly in areas of unassessed range and areas not surveyed in the last 10 years or more. See Introduction for a more detailed explanation of how the priority ranking is derived. African Elephant Status Report 2007 WEST AFRICA | REGIONAL OVERVIEW 165 ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P Tunisia Togo ChadSenegal Sierra Leone Nigeria NigerMauritania Mali Morocco Libya Liberia Guinea Bissau Equatorial Guinea Guinea Gambia Ghana Gabon Western Sahara Algeria Cameroon Côte d'Ivoire Congo Central African Republic Benin Burkina Faso PORTO NOVO ABUJA FREETOWN DAKAR LOMÉ NIAMEY BAMAKO MONROVIA BISSAU CONAKRY ACCRA LIBREVILLE NDJAMENA YAOUNDE YAMOUSSOUKRO OUAGADOUGOU 10°W 10°W 0° 0° 10°E 10°E 0° 0° 10°N 10°N 20°N 20°N 30°N 30°N W e s t A f r i c aW e s t A f r i c a African Elephant Specialist Group This map is unprojected. Scale is indicative only. Sources: African Elephant Database Digital Chart of the World Regional Boundary International Boundary !P CAPITAL CITIES Rivers & Lakes Protected Areas Input Zones Elephant Range Known Possible ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Doubtful 0 690 1,380345 km 166 REGIONAL OVERVIEW | WEST AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 the categorization as DOUBTFUL range of several areas, mainly in Nigeria, Benin and Ghana, where human population density is estimated to exceed 15 persons per km² (ORNL/GIST, 2002) and makes the continued presence of elephants unlikely (see Introduction section for details). Although KNOWN range represents 71% of total regional range, the current occurrence of elephants in many areas, particularly in Liberia, Sierra Leone and small habitat fragments in Nigeria and Côte d’Ivoire, remains uncertain. Virtually all of the POSSIBLE range data for West Africa is more than 10 years old. Nearly three-quarters of the total range area is distributed among five countries, namely, Côte d’Ivoire, Mali, Ghana, Nigeria and Burkina Faso. West Africa is the only region where a higher proportion of elephant range (60%) is found inside designated protected areas than outside. Many of these protected areas, however, are forest reserves, which only afford limited protection. Population Data Many elephant populations in the region are probably not viable because they are genetically isolated, their numbers are small, and their sex ratios and age structures have been distorted by hunting. The single largest population is that of the “WAPOK” (“W”-Arly-Pendjari-Oti-Mandori-Kéran) complex, which straddles the borders between Benin, Burkina Faso, Niger and Togo. This population alone holds more than half of the region’s known elephants and is covered by good quality systematic surveys. Estimates of elephant abundance are available for 66% of elephant range in West Africa, making it the region with the largest proportion of range for which population estimates are available, although nearly two-thirds of that area is only covered by guesses. However, out of 32 post-2002 estimates included in this report, the majority (26) originate from systematic surveys, and include two previously unsurveyed areas. Elephant numbers in the DEFINITE category have increased by over 2,000 compared with the previous report, largely due to the replacement of previous estimates by more reliable estimates from aerial total counts, particularly in the WAPOK complex. The associated increase in precision is the cause of the declines in the PROBABLE, POSSIBLE and SPECULATIVE categories. The combined estimate from methodologically comparable surveys between the previous and this report (i.e. those labelled repeat survey or “RS” in the national tables of estimates) only accounts for 35% of the regional DEFINITE plus PROBABLE estimate. Consequently, a statistical comparison between these estimates, such as described by Blanc et al. (2005), would not be meaningful at a regional scale. Cross-border Movements Limited movements of elephants may take place between West and Central Africa, specifically between Nigeria, Cameroon and Chad. African Elephant Status Report 2007 WEST AFRICA | BENIN 167 B E N I N General Statistics Country area: 112,620 km² Range area (% of country): 13,673 km² (15%) Protected area coverage (% of country): 24% Protected range (% of known and possible range in protected areas): 71% Information Quality Index (IQI): 0.51 CITES Appendix: I Listing Year: 1989 Current Issues Human population pressure and encroachment into elephant habitats are the most important threats facing elephant conservation in Benin. A 2003 survey covering all of Benin’s elephant habitats found high levels of human settlement within protected areas, largely by cotton farmers and traditional transhumant livestock herders. This is despite a wildlife law passed in 2000 regulating human settlement and establishing buffer zones around protected areas. In an attempt to reduce encroachment pressure in protected areas, Benin is promoting the involvement of local communities in the management of protected areas, through the creation of Village Associations for the Management of Wildlife Reserves (AVIGREF). Seventy eight of these associations participate in the management of the “W” National Park and its periphery, and receive 30% of the revenues generated by the park and adjacent hunting zones. In addition, the AVIGREF co-manage eco-tourism and hunting activities, and undertake the maintenance of trails and watering holes in the park. Revenues are then invested in communal projects or distributed in the form of work contracts to local communities (El Hadj Issa & Novelli, 2004). Funding for the development of a national strategy for the conservation of elephants in Benin was secured in 2004, and a workshop was held in the same year. In addition, Benin is one of the countries involved in a regional action plan for the conservation of transfrontier elephant conservation corridors in West Africa. Range Data Elephants are restricted to the north of Benin, but much of the range is only used seasonally by elephants. A number of areas in northeastern Benin have been categorized as DOUBTFUL range, based on Landscan 2002 human population density data (ORNL/GIST, 2002; see Introduction section for details on rationale). The western part of the Pendjari Biosphere Reserve has also been categorized as DOUBTFUL (P. Bouché, pers. comm., 2005). This was corroborated by the results of a 2003 ecosystem-wide survey (Bouché et al., 2004b). Population Data Much of Benin’s elephant range was systematically surveyed in a transboundary aerial total count, extending across to Burkina Faso, Niger and Togo, conducted in 2003 by the CITES MIKE Programme (Bouché et al., 2004b). Estimates from this survey replace aerial sample counts conducted by Ecosystèmes Protégés en Afrique Sahélienne (ECOPAS) in 2002 (Rouamba & Hien, 2002; Rouamba et al., 2002). In April 2006 an aerial survey was conducted in the Pendjari Biosphere Reserve, which estimated 1,808 ± 213 elephants (Sinsin et al., 2006), but the results of the aforementioned ecosystem-wide survey have been used despite their being slightly more dated. Changes in the DEFINITE, PROBABLE and POSSIBLE estimates for Benin between the AESR 2002 and this report are a result of an increase in precision caused by the use of more reliable survey techniques. Little can therefore be said about actual changes in elephant numbers in Benin, which, in any case, are likely to fluctuate through transboundary movements. Although nearly half of the range estimate for the country 168 BENIN | WEST AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 remains unsurveyed, most of this range is likely to be only seasonal and most of the elephants that use it are likely to have been counted in surveyed areas. Cross-border Movements Benin's elephants are part of West Africa’s largest elephant population, which spans the borders of Benin, Burkina Faso, Niger and Togo. African Elephant Status Report 2007 WEST AFRICA | BENIN 169 SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEData Category DEFINITE SUMMARY TOTALS FOR BENIN 0001,223Aerial or Ground Total Counts 1,223 0 0 0TOTALS 2006 TOTALS 2002 1,101 504 504 0 INTERPRETATION OF CHANGES IN ESTIMATES FROM PREVIOUS REPORT SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEDEFINITECause of Change New Population 0 0 0 0 Different Technique +122 -504 -504 0 TOTAL CHANGE +122 -504 -504 0 AREA OF RANGE COVERED BY EACH DATA CATEGORY (km²) 7,005 6,073 13,078 0 595 595 7,005 6,668 13,673TOTAL Unassessed Range Aerial or Ground Total Counts Total RangePossible RangeKnown RangeData Category 170 BENIN | WEST AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 AREA (km²) INPUT ZONE ESTIMATE 95% C.L. SOURCE NUMBER OF ELEPHANTS BENIN: ELEPHANT ESTIMATES LAT.LON. MAP LOCATION TYPE RELIAB. SURVEY DETAILS² YEAR CAUSE OF CHANGE¹ PFS³ 1,356Atakora Hunting Zones 2003 343 Bouché et al., 2004bAAT2 2.0 E 11.2 NDT 2 1,216Djona Hunting Zone 2003 36 Bouché et al., 2004bAAT2 3.0 E 11.6 NDT 2 806Goungoun Classified Forest 2003 0 Bouché et al., 2004bAAT2 3.2 E 11.5 NNP 2,827Pendjari Biosphere Reserve 2003 788 Bouché et al., 2004bAAT2 1.4 E 11.1 NDT 1 5,872W du Benin National Park 2003 56 Bouché et al., 2004bAAT2 2.6 E 11.9 NDT 1 ¹ Key to Causes of Change: DA: Different Area; DD: Data Degraded; DT: Different Technique; NA: New Analysis; NG: New Guess; NP: New population; PL: Population Lost; RS: Repeat Survey (RS´ denotes a repeat survey that is not statistically comparable for reasons such as different season); –––: No Change ² Key to Survey Types: AS: Aerial Sample Count; AT: Aerial Total Count; DC: Dung Count; GD: Genetic Dung Count; GS: Ground Sample Count; GT: Ground Total Count; IG: Informed Guess; IR: Individual Registration; OG: Other Guess. Survey Type is followed by an indicator of survey quality, ranked from 1 to 3 (best to worst). Survey Reliability is keyed A-E (best to worst) ³ PFS: Priority for Future Surveys, ranked from 1 to 5 (highest to lowest). Based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of national range accounted for by the site in question, PFS is a measure of the importance and urgency for future population surveys. All areas of unassessed range have a priority of 1. See Introduction for details on how the PFS is derived. African Elephant Status Report 2007 WEST AFRICA | BENIN 171 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P Oti Niger Mono WhiteVolta Red Volta Zio L.Volta Madjoari TFR Barkoissi CF Trois Rivières CF Sota CF Guéné CF Alibori Supérieur CF Kainji Lake NP Old Oyo NP Kyabobo Range NP Galangashie FnR Dosso PFRTamou TFR Kourtiagou W du Burkina Goungoun Fosse aux Lions Djona W du Benin Abdoulayé Aires de l'Est Pendjari Atakora Arly Koakrana Okomu Omo Chichibon Digya Fazao- Malfakassa Kéran Oti- Mandori Red & White Volta - Morago Zabré W du Niger Togo Nigeria Niger Ghana Benin Burkina Faso PORTO NOVO Abomey Parakou Kandi LOMÉ Atakpame Sokode Dapaong Lagos Ibadan Ife Fada Ngourma Cotonou 0° 0° 1°E 1°E 2°E 2°E 3°E 3°E 4°E 4°E 5°E 5°E 7°N 7°N 8°N 8°N 9°N 9°N 10°N 10°N 11°N 11°N 12°N 12°N B e n i nB e n i n This map is unprojected. Scale is indicative only. See Appendix IV for protected area abbreviations. Sources: African Elephant Database Digital Chart of the World African Elephant Specialist Group International Boundary Rivers & Lakes !P Towns Protected Areas Input Zones (variable hatching) Elephant Range Known Possible ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Doubtful D Sighting/sign 0 150 30075 km 172 BURKINA FASO | WEST AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 B U R K I N A F A S O General Statistics Country area: 274,200 km² Range area (% of country): 19,872 km² (7%) Protected area coverage (% of country): 15% Protected range (% of known and possible range in protected areas): 73% Information Quality Index (IQI): 0.64 CITES Appendix: I Listing Year: 1989 Current Issues In 2003, Burkina Faso finalized a strategy and plan for the sustainable management of elephants (Belemsobgo et al., 2003). The strategy identifies pressure on land and elephant habitats, prompted by human demographic growth and the consequent expansion of agricultural land, poaching and institutional weakness as the main threats to elephant populations in the country. The strategy takes a participative approach and recognizes the necessity to integrate elephant management at various geographical scales, from the site to the regional level. Two projects to secure transfrontier elephant migration corridors that include Burkina Faso have begun recently. These initiatives, spearheaded and coordinated by IUCN, are being implemented in Burkina Faso by the Partenariat pour l'Amélioration de la Gestion des Ecosystèmes Naturels (PAGEN). In the north of the country, PAGEN is working to secure the areas used by the Gourma elephants when they cross the border from Mali. Similarly, PAGEN works on Burkina Faso’s southern border to secure transfrontier migration corridors with Ghana. The ongoing political instability in neighbouring Côte d’Ivoire is reported to be causing elephants to move to neighbouring countries, including Burkina Faso, and this is said to have aggravated human-elephant conflict in the southwest. Range Data Elephant populations in Burkina Faso are distributed in six areas, mainly in the south. The information displayed on the range map is virtually unchanged from the AESR 2002, except for the addition of a number of crosses based on data from Bouché (2004; P. Bouché, pers. comm., 2005). An aerial survey conducted in 2005 revealed the presence of elephants in the Mare aux Hippopotames Biosphere Reserve. It is not clear, however, whether this is a resident population or whether it originates from the nearby Mohoun complex (Bouché, 2005). Until this is conclusively determined, the presence of elephants there has also been entered as a point sighting in the AED. Population Data Arly and “W” National Parks and their surrounding hunting areas (Aires de l’Est) were surveyed in 2003 as part of an ecosystem-wide aerial total count extending to parts of Benin, Niger and Togo conducted under the auspices of the CITES MIKE Programme (Bouché et al., 2004b). Estimates from this survey replace aerial sample count estimates for Arly and “W” National Parks, Koakrana and Konkombouri Hunting Zones, and Kourtiagou, Ouamou, Pagou-Tandougou, Pama and Singou Partial Faunal Reserves (Bouché et al., 2000). Aerial total counts have also been recently conducted in a number of areas in the south and west. Total counts of the previously unsurveyed Mare aux Hippopotames Biosphere Reserve and the Comoé-Leraba Forest were conducted in 2005 (Bouché, 2005). The estimate of three from the latter replaces an INFORMED GUESS of 26 (Traore, 1998) for the smaller area referred to as Diefoula Classified Forest in the African Elephant Status Report 2007 WEST AFRICA | BURKINA FASO 173 SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEData Category DEFINITE SUMMARY TOTALS FOR BURKINA FASO 0003,933Aerial or Ground Total Counts 0320320221Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts 020000Informed Guesses 4,154 320 520 0TOTALS 2006 TOTALS 2002 2,031 833 1,059 0 INTERPRETATION OF CHANGES IN ESTIMATES FROM PREVIOUS REPORT SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEDEFINITECause of Change New Population +41 0 0 0 Different Technique +2,082 -513 -539 0 TOTAL CHANGE +2,123 -513 -539 0 AREA OF RANGE COVERED BY EACH DATA CATEGORY (km²) 11,110 2,283 600 4,474 18,468 0 0 264 1,141 1,405 11,110 2,283 863 5,615 19,872TOTAL Unassessed Range Informed Guesses Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts Aerial or Ground Total Counts Total RangePossible RangeKnown RangeData Category 174 BURKINA FASO | WEST AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 AREA (km²) INPUT ZONE ESTIMATE 95% C.L. SOURCE NUMBER OF ELEPHANTS BURKINA FASO: ELEPHANT ESTIMATES LAT.LON. MAP LOCATION TYPE RELIAB. SURVEY DETAILS² YEAR CAUSE OF CHANGE¹ PFS³ 6,077Aires de l'Est Hunting Areas 2003 2,119 Bouché et al., 2004bAAT2 1.0 E 11.6 NDT 1 1,224Arly National Park 2003 422 Bouché et al., 2004bAAT2 1.4 E 11.5 NDT 2 420Bontioli Partial & Total Faunal Reserve 1998 50 Chardonnet, quest. reply, 1998DIG3 3.1 W 10.8 N––– 2 1,204Comoé-Leraba Classified Forests 2005 3 Bouché, 2005AAT2 4.6 W 9.9 NDT 2 229Koakrana Hunting Zone 2003 0 Bouché et al., 2004bAAT2 1.8 E 11.5 NDT 485Kourtiagou Partial Faunal Reserve 2003 0 Bouché et al., 2004bAAT2 2.0 E 11.5 NDT 192Mare aux Hippopotames Biosphere Reserve 2005 46 Bouché, 2005AAT2 4.2 W 11.6 NNP 3 320 3,296Mohoun Protected Area Complex 2002 541 Belemsobgo, 2002BAS1 3.3 W 11.6 N––– 1 6,093Po - Nazinga - Sissili Ecosystem 2003 603 Bouché et al., 2004aAAT2 1.5 W 11.3 NDT 1 2,412W du Burkina National Park 2003 740 Bouché et al., 2004bAAT2 2.2 E 11.9 NDT 2 600Zabré Department 1998 150 Chardonnet, quest. reply, 1998DIG3 0.6 W 11.1 N––– 2 ¹ Key to Causes of Change: DA: Different Area; DD: Data Degraded; DT: Different Technique; NA: New Analysis; NG: New Guess; NP: New population; PL: Population Lost; RS: Repeat Survey (RS´ denotes a repeat survey that is not statistically comparable for reasons such as different season); –––: No Change ² Key to Survey Types: AS: Aerial Sample Count; AT: Aerial Total Count; DC: Dung Count; GD: Genetic Dung Count; GS: Ground Sample Count; GT: Ground Total Count; IG: Informed Guess; IR: Individual Registration; OG: Other Guess. Survey Type is followed by an indicator of survey quality, ranked from 1 to 3 (best to worst). Survey Reliability is keyed A-E (best to worst) ³ PFS: Priority for Future Surveys, ranked from 1 to 5 (highest to lowest). Based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of national range accounted for by the site in question, PFS is a measure of the importance and urgency for future population surveys. All areas of unassessed range have a priority of 1. See Introduction for details on how the PFS is derived. African Elephant Status Report 2007 WEST AFRICA | BURKINA FASO 175 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! D D D D D D D D D D D !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P Niger WhiteVolta Oti Komoé BandamaBlanc Red Volta Mono L.Kossou L. Volta Madjoari TFR Aou Mono CF Kaflande CF Boulon CF Kinkene/Nyellepuo-Nzi CF Warigue CF Logoniegue CF Sissili CF Tisse CF Tiogo CF Alibori Supérieur CF Kabore - Tambi NP Kyabobo Range NP Galangashie FnR Sahel PFR Douentza Elephant FnR Deux Bales CF Tamou TFR Mare aux Hippopotames Kourtiagou W du Burkina Mohoun Fosse aux Lions Gourma W du Benin Mole Abdoulayé Haut Bandama Aires de l'Est Po Nazinga - Sissili Pendjari Atakora Arly Koakrana Comoé- Leraba Fazao- Malfakassa Comoé Kéran Bontioli Oti- Mandori Red & White Volta - Morago Zabré W du Niger Togo Niger Mali GhanaCôte d'Ivoire Benin Burkina Faso Sokode Dapaong NIAMEY Tillabery Gao Sikasso Mopti Tamale Wa Ferkessedougou Po Bobo-Dioulasso Fada Ngourma OUAGADOUGOU Kaya Ouahigouya 5°W 5°W 4°W 4°W 3°W 3°W 2°W 2°W 1°W 1°W 0° 0° 1°E 1°E 2°E 2°E 8°N 8°N 9°N 9°N 10°N 10°N 11°N 11°N 12°N 12°N 13°N 13°N 14°N 14°N 15°N 15°N 16°N 16°N B u r k i n a F a s oB u r k i n a F a s o This map is unprojected. Scale is indicative only. See Appendix IV for protected area abbreviations. Sources: African Elephant Database Digital Chart of the World African Elephant Specialist Group International Boundary Rivers & Lakes !P Towns Protected Areas Input Zones (variable hatching) Elephant Range Known Possible ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Doubtful D Sighting/sign 0 200 400100 km 176 BURKINA FASO | WEST AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 AESR 2002. Finally, a census conducted in the Po-Nazinga-Sissili ecosystem (Bouché et al., 2004a) covered a larger area than the survey which it replaces, namely an aerial sample count of Nazinga Game Ranch and Sissili Classified Forest (Cornelis, 2000). Estimates for Bontioli, Mohoun and Zabré have been retained from the previous report. The number of elephants under the DEFINITE category has increased by over 2,100 since the AESR 2002. This increase is partly matched by decreases in the PROBABLE and POSSIBLE categories, as would be expected given the use of more precise aerial survey techniques (aerial total counts) than was the case in the past. The change in the DEFINITE category may also be partly explained by the movement of elephants across international borders. It is nevertheless widely believed that elephant numbers are indeed increasing in parts of the country. Reliable estimates of elephant abundance currently cover over 72% of the range estimate for Burkina Faso, and although this percentage has increased since the previous report, the number of elephants in newly surveyed areas only makes a minimal contribution to the change in the DEFINITE category. Cross-border Movements Most of Burkina Faso’s elephants are likely to be part of important transboundary populations. Elephants are known to migrate between Gourma in Mali and the Sahel Partial Faunal Reserve in northern Burkina Faso (Blake et al., 2003). There are also wet season movements between Nazinga Game Ranch, northern Ghana and Togo, as well as between Zabré and the Red Volta - White Volta - Morago ecosystem in Ghana (Chardonnet & Koalo, quest. reply, 1998; Okoumassou et al., 1998). Movement from Côte d'Ivoire’s Comoé National Park into the Comoé-Leraba Forest is believed to have increased in recent years as a result of insecurity in that country (Bouché, 2005). African Elephant Status Report 2007 WEST AFRICA | CÔTE D’IVOIRE 177 C Ô T E D ’ I V O I R E General Statistics Country area: 322,460 km² Range area (% of country): 33,985 km² (11%) Protected area coverage (% of country): 10% Protected range (% of known and possible range in protected areas): 69% Information Quality Index (IQI): 0.25 CITES Appendix: I Listing Year: 1989 Current Issues Ongoing instability in Côte d’Ivoire, particularly in the north and west, continues to make conservation and monitoring work difficult. Nevertheless, a national elephant management strategy was drafted following a workshop in December 2003, and endorsed by the Minister for Water and Forests in August 2004 (Ministère des Eaux et Forêts, 2004). The strategy sets out to protect remaining elephant populations by improving habitats, reducing poaching and human-elephant conflict, rationalizing legislation, investing in elephant population research, enhancing institutional capacity and fostering cross-border cooperation. The strategy presents a 10 year plan for its implementation, with a budget of 13 million CFA, much of which will have to be sourced from international donors. However, with only one population likely to have over 100 individuals at present, the future for elephants in Côte d’Ivoire appears bleak, as small populations face an increased risk of extinction (Barnes, 1999). Despite its small elephant populations, Côte d’Ivoire had one of the largest domestic ivory markets in West Africa before the conflict started (Courouble et al., 2003). The limited legislation which exists to regulate the market is not fully implemented and is generally ineffective. While it is believed that the conflict may have suppressed the domestic ivory market, it could re-emerge once political stability returns (Milliken, 2002). Range Data Elephants are found in small, isolated forest and savanna sites scattered throughout the country, largely in forest reserves and protected areas. Most of these have not been studied for many years, and elephant presence is only confirmed in seven sites (Fischer, 2005). Population Data Under the auspices of the CITES MIKE programme, samples for genetic dung counts were collected in Taï and Marahoué National Parks prior the outbreak of hostilities in 2002 (Eggert, 2004a,b; Nandjui et al., 2004). The results of these surveys were not available in time for the previous report of the AED, but are now featured in the table of estimates, replacing INFORMED GUESSes of 75 (B. Hoppe-Dominik, pers. comm., 2003) and 50 (Alers, cited in Douglas-Hamilton et al., 1992) respectively. The only other new estimate arising from a systematic survey is the result of a dung count conducted in Azagny National Park (Nandjui, 2003), which replaces a 1987 guess of 60 by Lauginie (cited in DouglasHamilton et al., 1992). A guess of 60 for the Fresco Classified Forest (Ministère des Eaux et Forêts, 2004) replaces an earlier (1991) guess of 150 (Alers, cited in Douglas-Hamilton et al., 1992). The new figure may still be an overestimate, however, as Kouadio (cited in Fischer, 2005) believes there are “very few” elephants left in the area. 178 CÔTE D’IVOIRE | WEST AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 An aerial survey of Comoé, planned for 2002 by the CITES MIKE programme but cancelled due to the outbreak of hostilities, had still not been conducted by the end of 2005. Fischer (2005) believes the current elephant population in Comoé to stand at between 10 and 20 individuals. This estimate replaces a 1998 guess of 200 by the same author (F. Fischer, pers. comm., 1998). It is said that elephants from Comoé may have moved across the border to Burkina Faso to escape the conflict. The only other changes to the table of estimates are a guess of 20 for the Haut Bandama Fauna and Flora Reserve (Bouché, 2002a) and the degradation of estimates for Beki-Bossematie and Songan-Tamin-MabiYaya to the category of OTHER GUESSES, as they are now more than 10 years old. All other estimates remain unchanged from the previous report. Many of these estimates are now more than 15 years old and are very unreliable. No estimates are available for 28% of elephant range. A national survey of elephant populations was to be conducted in 2004-2005, but this was not possible due to ongoing political instability. The numbers of elephants in the DEFINITE and PROBABLE categories have increased by 125 and 152 respectively as a result of improved estimates for Taï, Marahoué and Azagny. However, this is exceeded by decreases in the POSSIBLE (-241) and SPECULATIVE (-160) categories, which result from updated guesses and the degradation of old estimates to the SPECULATIVE category. Cross-border Movements Côte d’Ivoire shares several elephant populations with neighbouring countries. There are cross-border movements between Comoé and southern Burkina Faso (Chardonnet & Koalo, quest. reply, 1998; Traore, 1998), between Djambamakrou and Bia in Ghana and possibly between Goin-Cavally and Grebo (Liberia) (A. Nandjui, pers. comm., 2006). African Elephant Status Report 2007 WEST AFRICA | CÔTE D’IVOIRE 179 SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEData Category DEFINITE SUMMARY TOTALS FOR CÔTE D'IVOIRE 00011Aerial or Ground Total Counts 079152125Other Dung Counts 1040052Informed Guesses 496000Other Guesses 188 152 119 506TOTALS 2006 TOTALS 2002 63 0 360 666 INTERPRETATION OF CHANGES IN ESTIMATES FROM PREVIOUS REPORT SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEDEFINITECause of Change Different Technique +125 +152 +4 -135 New Guess 0 0 -190 -80 Data Degraded 0 0 -55 +55 TOTAL CHANGE +125 +152 -241 -160 AREA OF RANGE COVERED BY EACH DATA CATEGORY (km²) 134 5,501 12,849 2,217 2,135 22,836 0 0 0 3,659 7,489 11,149 134 5,501 12,849 5,876 9,624 33,985TOTAL Unassessed Range Other Guesses Informed Guesses Other Dung Counts Aerial or Ground Total Counts Total RangePossible RangeKnown RangeData Category 180 CÔTE D’IVOIRE | WEST AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 AREA (km²) INPUT ZONE ESTIMATE 95% C.L. SOURCE NUMBER OF ELEPHANTS CÔTE D'IVOIRE: ELEPHANT ESTIMATES LAT.LON. MAP LOCATION TYPE RELIAB. SURVEY DETAILS² YEAR CAUSE OF CHANGE¹ PFS³ 135Abokouamékro Faunal Reserve 2000 11 Kobon, quest. reply, 2002AGT1 5.1 W 6.9 N––– 3 52 218Azagny National Park 2003 65 Nandjui, 2003CDC3 4.9 W 5.2 NDT 3 389Beki-Bossematie Classified Forest 1993 35 Theuerkauf et al., 2001EIG3 3.5 W 6.6 NDD 2 88Bolo Forest 1989 5 Merz & Hoppe-Dominik, 1991EOG3 5.8 W 5.2 N––– 3 10* 11,500Comoé National Park 2002 10 Fischer, 2005DIG3 3.7 W 9.1 NNG 1 126Davo Forest 1989 20 Merz & Hoppe-Dominik, 1991EOG3 6.1 W 5.8 N––– 3 274Djambamakrou Forest 1989 30 Merz & Hoppe-Dominik, 1991EOG3 3.2 W 6.4 N––– 3 536Duekoué Forest 1997 6 Kobon, quest. reply, 2002EOG3 7.1 W 6.7 N––– 2 2,229Fresco Classified Forest 1998 60 Ministère des Eaux et Forêts, 2004 EOG3 5.8 W 5.1 NNG 2 600Go-Bodienou Forest 1989 20 Merz & Hoppe-Dominik, 1991EOG3 5.0 W 5.4 N––– 2 1,890Goin-Cavally Classified Forest 1989 70 Merz & Hoppe-Dominik, 1991EOG3 7.8 W 6.2 N––– 2 1,300Haut Bandama Fauna & Flora Reserve 2002 20 Bouché, 2002aEOG3 5.7 W 8.5 NNG 2 1,024Haut Sassandra Classified Forest 1997 30 Kobon, quest. reply, 2002DIG3 7.0 W 7.2 N––– 2 213Keregbo Forest 1989 30 Merz & Hoppe-Dominik, 1991EOG3 3.8 W 7.5 N––– 3 54 1,010Marahoué National Park 2002 159 Eggert, 2004bCGD3 6.0 W 7.1 NDT 2 340Mont Péko National Park 2000 40 Kobon, quest. reply, 2002EOG3 7.3 W 7.0 N––– 2 950Mont Sangbé National Park 2001 47 Lauginie et al., 2001DIG3 7.3 W 8.0 N––– 2 1,056Niegré Classified Forest 1989 50 Merz & Hoppe-Dominik, 1991EOG3 6.2 W 5.4 N––– 2 945Okromodou Forest 1989 50 Merz & Hoppe-Dominik, 1991EOG3 5.6 W 5.3 N––– 2 1,338Scio Classified Forest 1989 30 Merz & Hoppe-Dominik, 1991EOG3 7.8 W 6.8 N––– 2 1,698Songan-Tamin-Mabi-Yaya Classified Forest 1993 20 Theuerkauf et al., 2001EIG3 3.4 W 5.9 NDD 2 26 6,410Taï National Park 2002 53 Eggert, 2004aCGD3 7.1 W 5.6 NDT 1 4Tené Forest 1998 5 Kobon, quest. reply, 2002DIG3 5.4 W 6.5 N––– 5 380Tiapleu Forest 1989 10 Merz & Hoppe-Dominik, 1991EOG3 8.2 W 7.5 N––– 2 * Range of informed guess ¹ Key to Causes of Change: DA: Different Area; DD: Data Degraded; DT: Different Technique; NA: New Analysis; NG: New Guess; NP: New population; PL: Population Lost; RS: Repeat Survey (RS´ denotes a repeat survey that is not statistically comparable for reasons such as different season); –––: No Change ² Key to Survey Types: AS: Aerial Sample Count; AT: Aerial Total Count; DC: Dung Count; GD: Genetic Dung Count; GS: Ground Sample Count; GT: Ground Total Count; IG: Informed Guess; IR: Individual Registration; OG: Other Guess. Survey Type is followed by an indicator of survey quality, ranked from 1 to 3 (best to worst). Survey Reliability is keyed A-E (best to worst) ³ PFS: Priority for Future Surveys, ranked from 1 to 5 (highest to lowest). Based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of national range accounted for by the site in question, PFS is a measure of the importance and urgency for future population surveys. All areas of unassessed range have a priority of 1. See Introduction for details on how the PFS is derived. African Elephant Status Report 2007 WEST AFRICA | CÔTE D’IVOIRE 181 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! D D D !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P Komoé BandamaBlanc Bandama Cestos(Nuon) Bandam aRouge L.Kossou Disue River FR Haut Dodo/Grah/Hana CF Gbi NF Diefoula CF Kaflande CF Boulon CF Foumbou CF Mont Gbande CF Kinkene/Nyellepuo-Nzi CF Boundiali CF Warigue CF Nini-Suhien NP N'Zo PFR Mont Nimba SNR Mt. Tia CF Dadieso Haut Sassandra Haut Bandama Bia Marahoué Comoé- Leraba Barrobo Fresco Bolo Azagny AnkasaOkromodouSapo Niegré Go-Bodienou Davo Grebo Krahn Bassa Songan-Tamin- Mabi-Yaya Taï Tené Goin-Cavally Djambamakrou Beki-BossematieDuekoué Abokouamékro Scio Mont Péko Goaso KeregboTiapleu Mont Sangbé Comoé Bontioli Mali Liberia Guinea Ghana Côte d'Ivoire Burkina Faso Harper Wa Sanniguellie San Pedro Abidjan Abengourou YAMOUSSOUKRO Odienne Ferkessedougou 8°W 8°W 7°W 7°W 6°W 6°W 5°W 5°W 4°W 4°W 3°W 3°W 5°N 5°N 6°N 6°N 7°N 7°N 8°N 8°N 9°N 9°N 10°N 10°N C ô t e d ' I v o i r eC ô t e d ' I v o i r e This map is unprojected. Scale is indicative only. See Appendix IV for protected area abbreviations. Sources: African Elephant Database Digital Chart of the World African Elephant Specialist Group International Boundary Rivers & Lakes !P Towns Protected Areas Input Zones (variable hatching) Elephant Range Known Possible ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Doubtful D Sighting/sign 0 150 30075 km 182 GHANA | WEST AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 G H A N A General Statistics Country area: 238,540 km² Range area (% of country): 23,301 km² (13%) Protected area coverage (% of country): 5% Protected range (% of known and possible range in protected areas): 28% Information Quality Index (IQI): 0.35 CITES Appendix: I Listing Year: 1989 Current Issues Ghana was the first country in West Africa to develop a national strategy for the conservation of elephants (Wildlife Division, 2000), but limited resources seem to have slowed down its implementation. Nevertheless, recent reports indicate a renewed interest in Government circles to speed up its execution. Meanwhile, elephants in Ghana continue to be under pressure from habitat fragmentation and high human population densities. Shifting cultivation up to the boundaries of protected areas exacerbates the problem of crop raiding by elephants, which is severe wherever elephants occur in Ghana (Barnes, 2002b). Range Data Elephant range in Ghana is entirely fragmented and largely confined to protected areas. In Mole National Park, elephants are largely restricted to the southern sector, which is shown as KNOWN range. The northern sector has been categorized as POSSIBLE range, and areas around the park as DOUBTFUL range (Bouché, 2002b; Mackie, 2004). A recent survey sighted one group in the north (Bouché, 2006), and this is shown as a cross on the map. Elephants have not been seen for several years in an area connecting the Dadieso Forest Reserve with the Bia and Goaso ranges (Ayesu, 2003; Sam et al., 2003), and this has been removed from the map. A recent survey of Digya National Park (Kumordzi & Danquah, 2006) found signs of elephant presence to be restricted to the southwestern corner of the park. This area has been categorized as KNOWN range, while the remainder of the park has been classified as DOUBTFUL range. Nearly the half of the range information for Ghana currently falls under the POSSIBLE category and nearly 40% is over 10 years old. Much of the remaining (KNOWN) range data was obtained between 1999 and 2002. Population Data Three aerial surveys have been conducted in Mole National Park since the last report. The first of these, a combined aerial total, aerial sample and ground sample count, was conducted in 2002 under the auspices of the CITES MIKE Programme. A total estimate for the aerial and ground surveys was never produced, and only a combined figure of 368 ± 495 for the two aerial survey methods was reported (Bouché, 2002b). In 2004 a stratified aerial sample survey was conducted in the park, giving an estimate of 259 ± 222 (Mackie, 2004), but the difference between this and the 2002 estimate is not statistically significant. Finally, an aerial total count conducted in March 2006 returned an estimate of 401 (Bouché, 2006), and this has been used to replace an estimate of 589 ± 218 from a 1993 aerial sample count (J. Grainger, pers. comm., 1994). A dung count of Digya National Park conducted in 2006 returned an estimate of 357 ± 54 (Kumordzi & Danquah, 2006). This estimate replaces an INFORMED GUESS of 200 (Sam, 1994a). African Elephant Status Report 2007 WEST AFRICA | GHANA 183 SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEData Category DEFINITE SUMMARY TOTALS FOR GHANA 000401Aerial or Ground Total Counts 0179179388Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts 0552080Other Dung Counts 0700Informed Guesses 12000Other Guesses 789 387 241 12TOTALS 2006 TOTALS 2002 530 428 1,100 303 INTERPRETATION OF CHANGES IN ESTIMATES FROM PREVIOUS REPORT SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEDEFINITECause of Change New Population 0 0 +7 0 Different Technique +259 -41 -854 -300 Data Degraded 0 0 -11 +9 TOTAL CHANGE +259 -41 -859 -291 AREA OF RANGE COVERED BY EACH DATA CATEGORY (km²) 2,628 2,348 2,704 140 320 4,720 12,860 1,710 0 24 0 0 8,707 10,441 4,338 2,348 2,728 140 320 13,426 23,301TOTAL Unassessed Range Other Guesses Informed Guesses Other Dung Counts Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts Aerial or Ground Total Counts Total RangePossible RangeKnown RangeData Category 184 GHANA | WEST AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 AREA (km²) INPUT ZONE ESTIMATE 95% C.L. SOURCE NUMBER OF ELEPHANTS GHANA: ELEPHANT ESTIMATES LAT.LON. MAP LOCATION TYPE RELIAB. SURVEY DETAILS² YEAR CAUSE OF CHANGE¹ PFS³ 15 509Ankasa Conservation Area 2001 21 Danquah et al., 2001CDC3 2.6 W 5.3 N––– 2 29 306Bia National Park & Resource Reserve 2004 115 Sam et al., 2006CDC2 3.1 W 6.5 NDT 3 3* 290Chichibon Corridor 1994 12 Sam & Wilson, 1994EIG3 0.7 W 7.3 NDD 2 195Dadieso Forest Reserve 2002 7 Ayesu, 2003DIG3 3.0 W 6.0 NNP 3 54 3,478Digya National Park 2006 357 Kumordzi & Danquah, 2006BDC1 0.3 W 7.4 NDT 2 44 2,035Goaso Forest Reserves Complex 2004 72 Sam, 2004CDC3 2.7 W 6.8 NDT 2 36 366Kakum Conservation Area 2004 164 Danquah, 2004BDC1 1.3 W 5.5 NDT 3 4,504Mole National Park 2006 401 Bouché, 2006AAT2 1.9 W 9.6 NDT 2 167 1,370Red & White Volta - Morago Ecosystem 1998 46 Sam, 1998BDC3 0.5 W 10.7 N––– 2 * Range of informed guess ¹ Key to Causes of Change: DA: Different Area; DD: Data Degraded; DT: Different Technique; NA: New Analysis; NG: New Guess; NP: New population; PL: Population Lost; RS: Repeat Survey (RS´ denotes a repeat survey that is not statistically comparable for reasons such as different season); –––: No Change ² Key to Survey Types: AS: Aerial Sample Count; AT: Aerial Total Count; DC: Dung Count; GD: Genetic Dung Count; GS: Ground Sample Count; GT: Ground Total Count; IG: Informed Guess; IR: Individual Registration; OG: Other Guess. Survey Type is followed by an indicator of survey quality, ranked from 1 to 3 (best to worst). Survey Reliability is keyed A-E (best to worst) ³ PFS: Priority for Future Surveys, ranked from 1 to 5 (highest to lowest). Based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of national range accounted for by the site in question, PFS is a measure of the importance and urgency for future population surveys. All areas of unassessed range have a priority of 1. See Introduction for details on how the PFS is derived. African Elephant Status Report 2007 WEST AFRICA | GHANA 185 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! D D D D !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P Komoé WhiteVolta Oti Mono Zio L.Volta Songaw L.Keta Kogyae SNR Disue River FR Assin-Attandanso GPR Barkoissi CF Kabore - Tambi NP Nini-Suhien NP Kyabobo Range NP Galangashie FnR Dadieso Fosse aux Lions Mole Abdoulayé Bia Aires de l'Est Po Nazinga - Sissili Pendjari Atakora Arly Ankasa Kakum Songan-Tamin- Mabi-Yaya Djambamakrou Beki-Bossematie Chichibon Goaso Keregbo Digya Fazao- Malfakassa Comoé Kéran Bontioli Oti- Mandori Red & White Volta - Morago Zabré Togo Ghana Côte d'Ivoire Benin Burkina Faso Abomey LOMÉ Atakpame Sokode Dapaong Cape Coast ACCRA Tema Kumasi Tamale Wa Abidjan Abengourou Po Bobo-Dioulasso 4°W 4°W 3°W 3°W 2°W 2°W 1°W 1°W 0° 0° 1°E 1°E 2°E 2°E 5°N 5°N 6°N 6°N 7°N 7°N 8°N 8°N 9°N 9°N 10°N 10°N 11°N 11°N G h a n aG h a n a This map is unprojected. Scale is indicative only. See Appendix IV for protected area abbreviations. Sources: African Elephant Database Digital Chart of the World African Elephant Specialist Group International Boundary Rivers & Lakes !P Towns Protected Areas Input Zones (variable hatching) Elephant Range Known Possible ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Doubtful D Sighting/sign 0 150 30075 km 186 GHANA | WEST AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 A dung count of the Bia Conservation Area, conducted in 2004, used two different models to estimate elephant numbers, namely, a steady state model and a rainfall model. The steady state model gave an estimate of 146 ± 39, while the estimate from the rainfall model was 115 with an asymmetric confidence interval of 90 to 148 (Sam et al., 2006). The estimate used in this report is that of the more precise rainfall model, and it replaces a 1999 dung count figure of 108 (Sam, 2000), which was categorized in the previous report as an INFORMED GUESS for lack of an estimate of precision. The Goaso Forest Reserve Complex was also covered as part of the Bia survey. The survey only found sufficiently high dung densities to calculate an estimate of elephant numbers in the northwest of the reserve, but the surveyors assume that elephants use the entire complex as part of their habitat, and hence the estimate was applied over the entire area surveyed. As in the case of Bia, two different models were used to estimate elephant numbers. In this case, the steady state model, which gave an estimate of 72 ± 44, was used in preference to the rainfall model (57, 95% CL 33 to 100), as no coefficient of variation was provided for the latter (Sam, 2004). This estimate replaces a 1994 INFORMED GUESS of 500 to 800 elephants (M.K. Sam, pers. comm., 1995). A dung count of the previously unassessed Dadieso and Disue Forest Reserves failed to detect any elephant dung, but footprints of at least seven elephants were seen (Ayesu, 2003), and this figure appears as an INFORMED GUESS in the table of estimates. The number of DEFINITE elephants in the summary table has increased by 259 compared to the previous report, due to the new estimate from the Digya National Park survey. The higher precision of the Mole survey, together with lower dung count estimates for Kakum and Goaso, result in decreases of 41 and 859 in the PROBABLE and POSSIBLE categories respectively. The replacement of estimates for Goaso and Digya with higher quality estimates, coupled with the degradation to the SPECULATIVE category of the estimate for Chichibon, which is now more than 10 years old, result in a net decrease of 291 in this category. Cross-border Movements Ghana shares several elephant populations with neighbouring countries. Elephants move between Ghana and Burkina Faso, across the eastern border with Togo (Okoumassou et al., 1998), and possibly across the western border with Côte d’Ivoire. The corridor between Togo and Ghana is protected by forest reserves in Ghana, but is under threat from expanding agriculture on the Togolese side (Sam et al., 1998). African Elephant Status Report 2007 WEST AFRICA | GUINEA 187 G U I N E A General Statistics Country area: 245,860 km² Range area (% of country): 1,524 km² (1%) Protected area coverage (% of country): 6% Protected range (% of known and possible range in protected areas): 36% Information Quality Index (IQI): 0.47 CITES Appendix: I Listing Year: 1989 Current Issues The Ziama Forest Reserve is under pressure from growing human populations, habitat compression and increased cultivation up to the edges of the reserve. The imminent repatriation of refugees back to neighbouring Liberia may somewhat reduce this pressure in the short term (Barnes & Nandjui, 2005). Crop raiding by elephants is a continuing problem in the area (Barnes & Nandjui, 2005). In 1996, conflict resolution committees were established to deal with the problem. Composed of representatives from the local population with arbitration from forest authorities, these committees monitor the frequency and severity of crop raids and propose solutions, which may include compensation, on a case-by-case basis. Guinea is in the process of developing a national elephant conservation strategy. A workshop was held in 2004 and a strategy document was being drafted at the time of writing. In addition, an action plan to establish and secure a corridor between Ziama and Wenegisi Mountain in Liberia’s North East Forest has been recently developed (Sebogo, 2006). Range Data The Ziama Massif, one of the last two remaining dense moist forests in Guinea, is home to what may be the country’s only remaining viable elephant population. The shape of the Ziama range has been altered for this report based on the information from a 2004 survey (Barnes & Nandjui, 2005). Three new small areas of KNOWN range have been added in the northwest, adjacent to the CorubalDulombi area of Guinea Bissau, based on recent data collected by Brugière et al. (2006). The same authors believe that elephants no longer occur in the Sansalé area, and range there has been categorized as DOUBTFUL. It is not known whether elephants still occur in the Ouré Kaba area, on the border with Sierra Leone. In the absence of recent information, this area has been retained as POSSIBLE range. Population Data A dung count of the Ziama Forest Reserve conducted in 2004 (Barnes & Nandjui, 2005) provided the first reliable estimate of elephant numbers in Ziama. The figure of 214 from this survey replaces a 1998 dung count estimate of 108 (Direction Nationale des Forêts et Faune, 1999). Although both estimates originate from dung counts, they should not be directly compared, as the survey techniques were sufficiently different to render any comparison meaningless. The higher and more precise 2004 estimate is responsible for the increases in the DEFINITE and PROBABLE categories, as well as for the decrease in the POSSIBLE category shown in the summary table. In the previous two reports, a combined estimate of 140 appeared for both the Ouré Kaba and Sansalé areas. As elephants are no longer thought to occur in the Sansalé area, the estimate has been split between the two sites in proportion to their area, and the Sansalé portion has been given an estimate of zero. This results in a decrease of 83 in the SPECULATIVE category. 188 GUINEA | WEST AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 Cross-border Movements Elephants had long been absent from Ziama until 1996, when it is thought they arrived from neighbouring Liberia (Direction Nationale des Forêts et Faune & Kreditanstandt für Wiederaufbau, 1997; Sagnah & Sagnah, 2000). It is expected that movement across the border will increase when the recently developed action plan to establish a corridor between Ziama and Wenegisi Mountain is implemented (Sebogo, 2006). A recent study (Brugière et al., 2006) found indirect evidence of transboundary movement between northwest Guinea and southeast Guinea Bissau. Elephants from Niokolo-Koba in Senegal have not been seen on the Guinea side of the border since the early 1990s (Litoroh et al., 2002). African Elephant Status Report 2007 WEST AFRICA | GUINEA 189 SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEData Category DEFINITE SUMMARY TOTALS FOR GUINEA 07979135Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts 57000Other Guesses 135 79 79 57TOTALS 2006 TOTALS 2002 0 0 108 140 INTERPRETATION OF CHANGES IN ESTIMATES FROM PREVIOUS REPORT SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEDEFINITECause of Change Different Technique +135 +79 -29 0 Population Lost 0 0 0 -83 TOTAL CHANGE +135 +79 -29 -83 AREA OF RANGE COVERED BY EACH DATA CATEGORY (km²) 491 0 342 833 0 691 0 691 491 691 342 1,524TOTAL Unassessed Range Other Guesses Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts Total RangePossible RangeKnown RangeData Category 190 GUINEA | WEST AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 AREA (km²) INPUT ZONE ESTIMATE 95% C.L. SOURCE NUMBER OF ELEPHANTS GUINEA: ELEPHANT ESTIMATES LAT.LON. MAP LOCATION TYPE RELIAB. SURVEY DETAILS² YEAR CAUSE OF CHANGE¹ PFS³ 691Ouré Kaba 1998 57 Sagnah, quest. reply, 1998EOG3 11.7 W 10.1 N––– 1 1,014Sansalé 1998 0 Sagnah, quest. reply, 1998EOG3 13.7 W 11.7 NPL 79 455Ziama Strict Nature Reserve 2004 214 Barnes & Nandjui, 2005BDC2 9.2 W 8.2 NDT 1 ¹ Key to Causes of Change: DA: Different Area; DD: Data Degraded; DT: Different Technique; NA: New Analysis; NG: New Guess; NP: New population; PL: Population Lost; RS: Repeat Survey (RS´ denotes a repeat survey that is not statistically comparable for reasons such as different season); –––: No Change ² Key to Survey Types: AS: Aerial Sample Count; AT: Aerial Total Count; DC: Dung Count; GD: Genetic Dung Count; GS: Ground Sample Count; GT: Ground Total Count; IG: Informed Guess; IR: Individual Registration; OG: Other Guess. Survey Type is followed by an indicator of survey quality, ranked from 1 to 3 (best to worst). Survey Reliability is keyed A-E (best to worst) ³ PFS: Priority for Future Surveys, ranked from 1 to 5 (highest to lowest). Based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of national range accounted for by the site in question, PFS is a measure of the importance and urgency for future population surveys. All areas of unassessed range have a priority of 1. See Introduction for details on how the PFS is derived. African Elephant Status Report 2007 WEST AFRICA | GUINEA 191 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! D D D D D D D D D D D !P !P !P !P!P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P Gambia Niger Rokel Cestos(Nuon) GreatScarcies LittleScarcies M ano Loma Mountains FR Nimini South FRKangari Hills FR Gbi NF North Lorma CA Mampaye CF Mont Nimba SNR Mont Nimba SNR Badiar NP Binasse Sansalé Gola East Gola North Outamba- Kilimi Bagbe Ouré Kaba Corubal- Dulombi Ziama Krahn Bassa Goin-Cavally Scio Tiapleu Gola, Kpelle & Lorma Wenegisi Niokolo-Koba Senegal Sierra Leone Mali Liberia Guinea Bissau Guinea Gambia Côte d'Ivoire Bafatá Kenema Mano FREETOWN Magburaka Kabala Tambacounda BAMAKO MONROVIA Macenta Kissidougou CONAKRY Mamou Kankan Labe Sanniguellie Odienne 15°W 15°W 14°W 14°W 13°W 13°W 12°W 12°W 11°W 11°W 10°W 10°W 9°W 9°W 8°W 8°W 6°N 6°N 7°N 7°N 8°N 8°N 9°N 9°N 10°N 10°N 11°N 11°N 12°N 12°N 13°N 13°N G u i n e aG u i n e a This map is unprojected. Scale is indicative only. See Appendix IV for protected area abbreviations. Sources: African Elephant Database Digital Chart of the World African Elephant Specialist Group International Boundary Rivers & Lakes !P Towns Protected Areas Input Zones (variable hatching) Elephant Range Known Possible ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Doubtful D Sighting/sign 0 180 36090 km 192 GUINEA BISSAU | WEST AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 G U I N E A B I S S A U General Statistics Country area: 36,120 km² Range area (% of country): 1,346 km² (1%) Protected area coverage (% of country): 0% Protected range (% of known and possible range in protected areas): 0% Information Quality Index (IQI): 0.00 CITES Appendix: I Listing Year: 1989 Current Issues The small size of Guinea Bissau’s elephant population makes its long term viability unlikely. Pressure for land remains intense and there are plans to build a road through the remaining elephant range (Brugière et al., 2006). A plan to create a national park in the Corubal-Dulombi area was formulated in the 1990s, but was never completed due to civil unrest. Nevertheless, if a planned project to create a transboundary protected area between Guinea Bissau and Guinea is implemented, several core areas devoted to the conservation of biodiversity would be created to include parts of remaining elephant range (Brugière et al., 2006). Range Data A recent study of elephant distribution based on hunter interviews concluded that only a small elephant population remains in the southeast of Guinea Bissau (Brugière et al., 2006). An area of KNOWN range, based on point records from this study, has been added to the map. Two of the records, further to the north and separated from the main range area, appeared to belong to a transient animal and are shown as crosses on the map. The authors of the study believe that elephants are no longer found in the Binasse area, and this has been categorized as DOUBTFUL range. Population Data Brugière et al. (2006) believe that a minimum of seven elephants and no more than 20 remain in the Corubal-Dulombi area. This information has been entered as an INFORMED GUESS. The estimate of 35 for the Binasse area featured in the previous report (Sournia, cited in Douglas-Hamilton et al., 1992) has been replaced by an estimate of zero, as elephants are no longer believed to occur there (Brugière et al., 2006). Cross-border Movements Recent evidence suggests that elephants from the Corubal-Dulombi area move seasonally across the border to Guinea (Brugière et al., 2006), corroborating previous observations by da Silva Naga (2001). African Elephant Status Report 2007 WEST AFRICA | GUINEA BISSAU 193 SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEData Category DEFINITE SUMMARY TOTALS FOR GUINEA BISSAU 13700Informed Guesses 0000Other Guesses 0 0 7 13TOTALS 2006 TOTALS 2002 0 0 0 35 INTERPRETATION OF CHANGES IN ESTIMATES FROM PREVIOUS REPORT SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEDEFINITECause of Change New Population 0 0 +7 +13 Population Lost 0 0 0 -35 TOTAL CHANGE 0 0 +7 -22 AREA OF RANGE COVERED BY EACH DATA CATEGORY (km²) 1,346 1,346 1,346 1,346TOTAL Informed Guesses Total RangeKnown RangeData Category 194 GUINEA BISSAU | WEST AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 AREA (km²) INPUT ZONE ESTIMATE 95% C.L. SOURCE NUMBER OF ELEPHANTS GUINEA BISSAU: ELEPHANT ESTIMATES LAT.LON. MAP LOCATION TYPE RELIAB. SURVEY DETAILS² YEAR CAUSE OF CHANGE¹ PFS³ 330Binasse Area 2004 0 Brugière et al., in pressEOG3 13.8 W 11.8 NPL 13* 1,342Corubal-Dulombi Area 2004 7 Brugière et al., in pressDIG3 14.7 W 11.6 NNP 1 * Range of informed guess ¹ Key to Causes of Change: DA: Different Area; DD: Data Degraded; DT: Different Technique; NA: New Analysis; NG: New Guess; NP: New population; PL: Population Lost; RS: Repeat Survey (RS´ denotes a repeat survey that is not statistically comparable for reasons such as different season); –––: No Change ² Key to Survey Types: AS: Aerial Sample Count; AT: Aerial Total Count; DC: Dung Count; GD: Genetic Dung Count; GS: Ground Sample Count; GT: Ground Total Count; IG: Informed Guess; IR: Individual Registration; OG: Other Guess. Survey Type is followed by an indicator of survey quality, ranked from 1 to 3 (best to worst). Survey Reliability is keyed A-E (best to worst) ³ PFS: Priority for Future Surveys, ranked from 1 to 5 (highest to lowest). Based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of national range accounted for by the site in question, PFS is a measure of the importance and urgency for future population surveys. All areas of unassessed range have a priority of 1. See Introduction for details on how the PFS is derived. African Elephant Status Report 2007 WEST AFRICA | GUINEA BISSAU 195 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! D D !P !P !P !P !P !P Gambia Mampaye CF Binasse SansaléCorubal- Dulombi Niokolo- Koba Senegal Guinea Bissau Guinea Gambia Cacheu Bafatá Mansõa Bignona BISSAU Farim 16°W 16°W 15°W 15°W 14°W 14°W 11°N 11°N 12°N 12°N 13°N 13°N G u i n e a B i s s a uG u i n e a B i s s a u This map is unprojected. Scale is indicative only. See Appendix IV for protected area abbreviations. Sources: African Elephant Database Digital Chart of the World African Elephant Specialist Group International Boundary Rivers & Lakes !P Towns Protected Areas Input Zones (variable hatching) Elephant Range Known Possible ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Doubtful D Sighting/sign 0 75 15037.5 km 196 LIBERIA | WEST AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 L I B E R I A General Statistics Country area: 111,370 km² Range area (% of country): 15,977 km² (19%) Protected area coverage (% of country): 15% Protected range (% of known and possible range in protected areas): 64% Information Quality Index (IQI): 0.00 CITES Appendix: I Listing Year: 1989 Current Issues Rapid assessment surveys of some of the most important forest areas in Liberia have been conducted in recent years. Several areas originally proposed for national park status in the early 1990s were found to be disturbed by extensive logging. While other areas visited appeared relatively intact, elephant was the most likely species to be absent out of six charismatic species monitored (buffalo, chimpanzee, elephant, leopard, pigmy hippopotamus and slender-snouted crocodile). Hunter interviews suggest disturbance caused by logging operations as the most common cause for the absence of elephants (Waitkuwait et al., 2003). Hunting for bushmeat and human resettlement in rural areas after the civil war are also believed to have contributed to the disappearance of elephants from these areas. In 2005, up to 5,000 squatters and ex-combatants, who had occupied parts of Sapo National Park in search of gold, were peacefully evicted from the park. Another survey in late 2005 found small scale miners and prospecting activities for large scale mining in the Gola National Forest (Barrie et al., 2005). A workshop was held in Monrovia in 2005 to develop a national elephant conservation strategy, with financial support from the United States Fish and Wildlife Service and technical input from the AfESG. The drafting of the policy document was in progress at the time of writing. The AfESG has also assisted in the development of an action plan to establish an elephant corridor between Wenegisi Mountain in Liberia’s North East Forest and the Ziama Reserve in neighbouring Guinea (Sebogo, 2006). Range Data The Liberia Forest Re-assessment Project found elephants to be absent from a number of areas where they had been present in the early 1990s (Waitkuwait et al., 2003). These areas, which include parts of the Krahn Bassa and Grebo forests, have now been categorized as NON-RANGE. Around two-thirds of the remaining range data is over 15 years old and remains speculative. A related assessment of the Gola, North Lorma and Grebo National Forests found evidence of continued elephant presence at all three sites (Barrie et al., 2005). These records are depicted as crosses on the map, as only small portions of these forests were visited. The map also shows a cross in the northwest, near the border with Sierra Leone and to the west of Gola, where crop raiding by elephants is reported to be a problem (Humanitarian Information Centres, 2005). Population Data No quantitative surveys have been conducted in Liberia since 1991, and all estimates have been retained from the previous report. These estimates remain highly speculative. A survey of Sapo National Park had been planned under the CITES MIKE Programme, but could not be conducted due to ongoing instability at the time. Cross-border Movements Little information is available on cross-border movements, although it is likely that elephants move between Grebo and Goin-Cavally in Côte d’Ivoire (A. Nandjui, pers. comm., 2006), and between the Gola National Forest and the Gola North Forest Reserve in Sierra Leone. Elephants in the Ziama Forest in Guinea are reported to have moved there from Liberia during the civil war. African Elephant Status Report 2007 WEST AFRICA | LIBERIA 197 SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEData Category DEFINITE SUMMARY TOTALS FOR LIBERIA 1,676000Other Guesses 0 0 0 1,676TOTALS 2006 TOTALS 2002 0 0 0 1,676 AREA OF RANGE COVERED BY EACH DATA CATEGORY (km²) 1,368 85 1,453 8,169 6,355 14,524 9,537 6,440 15,977TOTAL Unassessed Range Other Guesses Total RangePossible RangeKnown RangeData Category 198 LIBERIA | WEST AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 AREA (km²) INPUT ZONE ESTIMATE 95% C.L. SOURCE NUMBER OF ELEPHANTS LIBERIA: ELEPHANT ESTIMATES LAT.LON. MAP LOCATION TYPE RELIAB. SURVEY DETAILS² YEAR CAUSE OF CHANGE¹ PFS³ 640Barrobo National Forest 1990 100 Anstey & Dunn, 1991EOG3 8.0 W 4.9 N––– 2 4,255Gola, Kpelle & Lorma National Forests 1990 500 Anstey & Dunn, 1991EOG3 10.4 W 7.5 N––– 1 2,510Grebo National Forest 1990 230 Anstey & Dunn, 1991EOG3 7.6 W 5.5 N––– 1 5,142Krahn Bassa National Forest 1990 500 Anstey & Dunn, 1991EOG3 8.8 W 5.8 N––– 1 304 1,292Sapo National Park 1989 313 Barnes & Dunn, 2002EDC3 8.5 W 5.4 N––– 2 130Wenegisi National Forest 1990 33 Anstey & Dunn, 1991EOG3 9.5 W 8.1 N––– 3 ¹ Key to Causes of Change: DA: Different Area; DD: Data Degraded; DT: Different Technique; NA: New Analysis; NG: New Guess; NP: New population; PL: Population Lost; RS: Repeat Survey (RS´ denotes a repeat survey that is not statistically comparable for reasons such as different season); –––: No Change ² Key to Survey Types: AS: Aerial Sample Count; AT: Aerial Total Count; DC: Dung Count; GD: Genetic Dung Count; GS: Ground Sample Count; GT: Ground Total Count; IG: Informed Guess; IR: Individual Registration; OG: Other Guess. Survey Type is followed by an indicator of survey quality, ranked from 1 to 3 (best to worst). Survey Reliability is keyed A-E (best to worst) ³ PFS: Priority for Future Surveys, ranked from 1 to 5 (highest to lowest). Based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of national range accounted for by the site in question, PFS is a measure of the importance and urgency for future population surveys. All areas of unassessed range have a priority of 1. See Introduction for details on how the PFS is derived. African Elephant Status Report 2007 WEST AFRICA | LIBERIA 199 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! D D D D D D D D !P !P !P !P !P !P !P Cestos(Nuon) M ano Sehnkwehn Nimini South FR Gbi NF North Lorma CA N'Zo PFR Mont Nimba SNR Gola East Gola North Ziama Barrobo Sapo Grebo Krahn Bassa Taï Goin- Cavally Scio Tiapleu Gola, Kpelle & Lorma Wenegisi Mont SangbéSierra Leone Liberia Guinea Côte d'Ivoire Greenville Buchanan Kenema Harper MONROVIA Macenta Sanniguellie 11°W 11°W 10°W 10°W 9°W 9°W 8°W 8°W 5°N 5°N 6°N 6°N 7°N 7°N 8°N 8°N L i b e r i aL i b e r i a This map is unprojected. Scale is indicative only. See Appendix IV for protected area abbreviations. Sources: African Elephant Database Digital Chart of the World African Elephant Specialist Group International Boundary Rivers & Lakes !P Towns Protected Areas Input Zones (variable hatching) Elephant Range Known Possible ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Doubtful D Sighting/sign 0 100 20050 km 200 MALI | WEST AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 M A L I General Statistics Country area: 1,240,000 km² Range area (% of country): 31,878 km² (2%) Protected area coverage (% of country): 3% Protected range (% of known and possible range in protected areas): 25% Information Quality Index (IQI): 0.55 CITES Appendix: I Listing Year: 1989 Current Issues The expansion of agriculture onto elephant migration routes is a major threat facing Mali’s elephants. As a result, human-elephant conflict continues to be an important threat to elephants in the Gourma region and beyond, affecting both pastoralists and agriculturalists (F. Dakouo, pers. comm., 2004; Nomba, 2000; Nomoko, 2006). It is feared that if the elephant migration route is blocked by expanding cultivation, elephants will be unable to obtain the resources they need and will eventually disappear from the area (Barnes et al., 2006). The implementation of a five-year project named ‘Projet de Conservation et Valorisation de la Biodiversité du Gourma Malien’ commenced recently thanks to funding from the World Bank. Amongst other objectives, the project recognizes the Gourma elephants as a unique resource and intends to work with the local people to ensure their conservation. Mali is also planning to develop a national elephant strategy, and funding for a workshop is being sought. Range Data Elephants in Mali are largely confined to a single population in the Gourma, an arid area in the Sahel on the border with Burkina Faso. The Gourma elephants are the continent’s most northerly population and, together with Namibia’s Kunene elephants, the most adapted to arid conditions. The area of KNOWN range has been further extended for this report through information from an ongoing radio-collaring and individual registration study (E.M. Hema et al., pers. comm., 2006). Two portions of this range are seldom or never visited by elephants, and they have been categorized as NON-RANGE. A small number of elephants may still be present in southwestern Mali, in the districts of Sikasso and Mopti. There have been recent sightings and reports of elephant damage in these areas (F. Dakouo, pers. comm., 2004; Nomoko, 2006). These are shown as crosses on the map. Population Data An individual registration study in the Gourma has identified a minimum of 357 elephants, with an estimated 141 calves and other family members not individually registered. Partial registration suggests there may be an additional 156 elephants in the population. An estimate of 498 to 654 has been entered as an INFORMED GUESS, replacing a 2002 waterhole aerial count and an INFORMED GUESS for the areas not covered in the flights (Blake et al., 2003). The new estimate for Gourma has resulted in increases in the DEFINITE, POSSIBLE and SPECULATIVE categories. These increases are a result of more comprehensive information, rather than a recorded increase in the actual elephant population. Cross-border Movements The Gourma elephants move anticlockwise in search of water in a roughly circular migration that takes them into northern Burkina Faso (Blake et al., 2003; Jachmann, 1991; Spinage, 1985) and covers nearly 38,000 km². Elephants seen in southwestern Mali in recent years are said to have come from Côte d’Ivoire or western Burkina Faso, but this has not been verified (F. Dakouo, pers. comm., 2004; Nomoko, 2006). African Elephant Status Report 2007 WEST AFRICA | MALI 201 SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEData Category DEFINITE SUMMARY TOTALS FOR MALI 1561410357Informed Guesses 357 0 141 156TOTALS 2006 TOTALS 2002 322 0 28 25 INTERPRETATION OF CHANGES IN ESTIMATES FROM PREVIOUS REPORT SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEDEFINITECause of Change New Guess +35 0 +113 +131 TOTAL CHANGE +35 0 +113 +131 AREA OF RANGE COVERED BY EACH DATA CATEGORY (km²) 31,878 31,878 31,878 31,878TOTAL Informed Guesses Total RangeKnown RangeData Category 202 MALI | WEST AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 AREA (km²) INPUT ZONE ESTIMATE 95% C.L. SOURCE NUMBER OF ELEPHANTS MALI: ELEPHANT ESTIMATES LAT.LON. MAP LOCATION TYPE RELIAB. SURVEY DETAILS² YEAR CAUSE OF CHANGE¹ PFS³ 156* 37,991Gourma 2006 498 E.M. Hema et al., pers. comm., 2006 DIG3 1.9 W 15.5 NNG 1 * Range of informed guess ¹ Key to Causes of Change: DA: Different Area; DD: Data Degraded; DT: Different Technique; NA: New Analysis; NG: New Guess; NP: New population; PL: Population Lost; RS: Repeat Survey (RS´ denotes a repeat survey that is not statistically comparable for reasons such as different season); –––: No Change ² Key to Survey Types: AS: Aerial Sample Count; AT: Aerial Total Count; DC: Dung Count; GD: Genetic Dung Count; GS: Ground Sample Count; GT: Ground Total Count; IG: Informed Guess; IR: Individual Registration; OG: Other Guess. Survey Type is followed by an indicator of survey quality, ranked from 1 to 3 (best to worst). Survey Reliability is keyed A-E (best to worst) ³ PFS: Priority for Future Surveys, ranked from 1 to 5 (highest to lowest). Based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of national range accounted for by the site in question, PFS is a measure of the importance and urgency for future population surveys. All areas of unassessed range have a priority of 1. See Introduction for details on how the PFS is derived. African Elephant Status Report 2007 WEST AFRICA | MALI 203 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P!P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P Niger W hite Volta Oti Gambia K om oé Rokel L. Volta Kaflande CF Foumbou CF Mont Gbande CF Kinkene/Nyellepuo-Nzi CF Boundiali CF Trois Rivières CF Sota CF Sissili CF Guéné CF Tisse CF Tiogo CF Alibori Supérieur CF Kainji Lake NP Dosso PFR Sahel PFR Douentza Elephant FnR Deux Bales CF Tamou TFR Mare aux Hippopotames Mohoun Gourma Djona Bagbe Mole Abdoulayé Aires de l'EstPo Nazinga - Sissili Pendjari Atakora Arly Comoé- Leraba Fazao-Malfakassa Comoé Kéran Bontioli Oti- Mandori Niokolo- Koba Togo Senegal Sierra Leone Nigeria Niger Mauritania Mali Guinea Ghana Western Sahara Algeria Côte d'Ivoire Benin Burkina Faso Parakou Kandi Kabala Tombouctou Sokode Dosso NIAMEY Tillabery Gao Sikasso BAMAKO Segou Mopti Kissidougou Mamou Kankan Labe Tamale Wa Odienne Ferkessedougou Po Bobo-Dioulasso Fada Ngourma OUAGADOUGOU Kaya Ouahigouya 12°W 12°W 11°W 11°W 10°W 10°W 9°W 9°W 8°W 8°W 7°W 7°W 6°W 6°W 5°W 5°W 4°W 4°W 3°W 3°W 2°W 2°W 1°W 1°W 0° 0° 1°E 1°E 2°E 2°E 3°E 3°E 4°E 4°E 9°N 9°N 10°N 10°N 11°N 11°N 12°N 12°N 13°N 13°N 14°N 14°N 15°N 15°N 16°N 16°N 17°N 17°N 18°N 18°N 19°N 19°N 20°N 20°N 21°N 21°N 22°N 22°N 23°N 23°N 24°N 24°N 25°N 25°N 26°N 26°N M a l iM a l i This map is unprojected. Scale is indicative only. See Appendix IV for protected area abbreviations. Sources: African Elephant Database Digital Chart of the World African Elephant Specialist Group International Boundary Rivers & Lakes !P Towns Protected Areas Input Zones (variable hatching) Elephant Range Known Possible ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Doubtful D Sighting/sign 0 400 800200 km 204 NIGER | WEST AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 N I G E R General Statistics Country area: 1,267,000 km² Range area (% of country): 2,683 km² (0%) Protected area coverage (% of country): 9% Protected range (% of known and possible range in protected areas): 87% Information Quality Index (IQI): 0.83 CITES Appendix: I Listing Year: 1989 Current Issues Niger has recently developed a national elephant management strategy. The strategy document identifies poaching, human-elephant conflict and lack of institutional capacity as some of the key factors affecting elephant populations in the country. In addition to reducing the impact of these challenges, the strategy’s objectives include the improvement of knowledge on the status of elephant populations and fostering cross-border cooperation in elephant management. Range Data Only two elephant populations are found in Niger, both in the south. The larger population is located in the southwest, within the boundary of the Parc “W”, a transfrontier park shared with Burkina Faso and Benin. The second, much smaller, population occurs in the Babban Rafi Forest, and is part of Nigeria’s Rongou Forest population (Direction de la Faune, Pêche et Pisciculture, 1991). Although there is recent information indicating the continued presence of elephants in Babban Rafi, the area remains categorized as POSSIBLE range for lack of detailed information on elephant distribution. The depiction of these ranges has not changed in the AED range map since the AED 1995 (Said et al., 1995). Population Data A 2003 aerial total count of the “W” complex returned an estimate of 85 for the Niger sector. Although this contrasts with the previous aerial sample count estimate of 743 ± 306 (Rouamba et al., 2002), the estimate for the entire park “W” has not changed considerably between the two surveys, highlighting the transboundary nature of its elephant population. The population in Babban Rafi is currently believed to stand at 17 animals (A.M. Issa, pers. comm., 2005). This estimate has been categorized as an INFORMED GUESS and replaces a 1992 estimate of 100 (Seydou, quest. reply, 1998). As a result of the new estimates, numbers for Niger have declined in all four categories. Much of the difference, however, is likely to be the result of transboundary movements rather than to genuine changes in elephant numbers. Cross-border Movements The Park “W” population straddles the borders of Niger, Benin and Burkina Faso and, together with other adjacent protected areas, now represents the largest elephant range in West Africa, both in terms of extent and numbers of elephants (Bouché et al., 2004b). Although the Babban Rafi population is believed to move between southern Niger and northern Nigeria, information on the movement patterns is contradictory. Some authors maintain that elephants spend most of their time in Niger (Seydou, 1997), whereas others suggest that they only visit Niger in the dry season, and only began doing so in 1986 (Direction de la Faune, Pêche et Pisciculture, 1991). African Elephant Status Report 2007 WEST AFRICA | NIGER 205 SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEData Category DEFINITE SUMMARY TOTALS FOR NIGER 00085Aerial or Ground Total Counts 01700Informed Guesses 85 0 17 0TOTALS 2006 TOTALS 2002 136 214 214 100 INTERPRETATION OF CHANGES IN ESTIMATES FROM PREVIOUS REPORT SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEDEFINITECause of Change Different Technique -51 -214 -214 0 New Guess 0 0 +17 -100 TOTAL CHANGE -51 -214 -197 -100 AREA OF RANGE COVERED BY EACH DATA CATEGORY (km²) 2,333 0 2,333 0 350 350 2,333 350 2,683TOTAL Informed Guesses Aerial or Ground Total Counts Total RangePossible RangeKnown RangeData Category 206 NIGER | WEST AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 AREA (km²) INPUT ZONE ESTIMATE 95% C.L. SOURCE NUMBER OF ELEPHANTS NIGER: ELEPHANT ESTIMATES LAT.LON. MAP LOCATION TYPE RELIAB. SURVEY DETAILS² YEAR CAUSE OF CHANGE¹ PFS³ 430Babban Rafi Forest 2005 17 A.M. Issa, pers. comm., 2005DIG3 7.0 E 13.1 NNG 1 2,294W du Niger National Park 2003 85 Bouché et al., 2004bAAT2 2.4 E 12.3 NDT 1 ¹ Key to Causes of Change: DA: Different Area; DD: Data Degraded; DT: Different Technique; NA: New Analysis; NG: New Guess; NP: New population; PL: Population Lost; RS: Repeat Survey (RS´ denotes a repeat survey that is not statistically comparable for reasons such as different season); –––: No Change ² Key to Survey Types: AS: Aerial Sample Count; AT: Aerial Total Count; DC: Dung Count; GD: Genetic Dung Count; GS: Ground Sample Count; GT: Ground Total Count; IG: Informed Guess; IR: Individual Registration; OG: Other Guess. Survey Type is followed by an indicator of survey quality, ranked from 1 to 3 (best to worst). Survey Reliability is keyed A-E (best to worst) ³ PFS: Priority for Future Surveys, ranked from 1 to 5 (highest to lowest). Based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of national range accounted for by the site in question, PFS is a measure of the importance and urgency for future population surveys. All areas of unassessed range have a priority of 1. See Introduction for details on how the PFS is derived. African Elephant Status Report 2007 WEST AFRICA | NIGER 207 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! D !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P N iger Oti Chad Kamuku NP Trois Rivières CF Sota CF Alibori Supérieur CF Kainji Lake NP Binder-Léré FnR Kamuku GR Dosso PFR Sahel PFR Sambisa GR Mandelia FnR Kalamaloue NP Bas Chari FnR Marguba W du Burkina Djona W du Benin Gagal-Yapala Koloudia-Doumdoum Massenya- Mandjafa Aires de l'Est Pendjari Atakora Arly Yankari Kéran Oti-Mandori WazaSambisaKwiambana Chad Basin (Chingurmi- Duguma) W du Niger Babban Rafi Togo Chad Nigeria Niger Mali Libya Algeria Cameroon Benin Burkina Faso Parakou Kandi Garoua MaiduguriKano Kaduna Bama Sokoto Dosso MaradiNIAMEY Zinder Tillabery Tahoua Agades Gao NDJAMENA Maroua Fada Ngourma 0° 0° 1°E 1°E 2°E 2°E 3°E 3°E 4°E 4°E 5°E 5°E 6°E 6°E 7°E 7°E 8°E 8°E 9°E 9°E 10°E 10°E 11°E 11°E 12°E 12°E 13°E 13°E 14°E 14°E 15°E 15°E 16°E 16°E 10°N 10°N 11°N 11°N 12°N 12°N 13°N 13°N 14°N 14°N 15°N 15°N 16°N 16°N 17°N 17°N 18°N 18°N 19°N 19°N 20°N 20°N 21°N 21°N 22°N 22°N 23°N 23°N 24°N 24°N 25°N 25°N 26°N 26°N N i g e rN i g e r This map is unprojected. Scale is indicative only. See Appendix IV for protected area abbreviations. Sources: African Elephant Database Digital Chart of the World African Elephant Specialist Group International Boundary Rivers & Lakes !P Towns Protected Areas Input Zones (variable hatching) Elephant Range Known Possible ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Doubtful D Sighting/sign 0 380 760190 km 208 NIGER | WEST AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK African Elephant Status Report 2007 WEST AFRICA | NIGERIA 209 N I G E R I A General Statistics Country area: 923,770 km² Range area (% of country): 22,968 km² (5%) Protected area coverage (% of country): 3% Protected range (% of known and possible range in protected areas): 70% Information Quality Index (IQI): 0.16 CITES Appendix: I Listing Year: 1989 Current Issues Most elephant populations are small, fragmented and probably not viable in the long term. Only the Yankari population in northern Nigeria has good prospects for survival, but encroachment and poaching continue to be a threat to elephants in the park (Omondi et al., 2006b). Nigeria seems to have made little progress in regulating its large domestic ivory market. The size of the market appears to be increasing, and the country continues to be an important entrepôt in the international trade. Most of the ivory traded in Nigeria is believed to originate from Central Africa (Courouble et al., 2003; TRAFFIC, 2004). Donors rejected a first proposal for the development of a national strategy for the conservation of Nigeria’s elephants, but the search for funds continues. Range Data Nigeria's elephants live in small, relict populations, divided between forests in the south and savannas in the north. Nigeria is Africa’s most populous country, and the fragmentation of elephant range is an inevitable consequence of increasing human density, agriculture and settlement. Changes to the range map include the categorization of several areas as DOUBTFUL range in areas where human population density is estimated to exceed 15 persons per km² (ORNL/GIST, 2002; see Introduction section for rationale). Such areas include the environs of Yankari and Cross River National Parks. The last two aerial surveys conducted in Yankari suggest that elephants are concentrated in the southeast of the park, where there is least disturbance from human activity (Nicholas, 1999; Omondi et al., 2006b). This area has been categorized as KNOWN range, while the rest of Yankari has been reverted to POSSIBLE range. An aerial survey of Sambisa and Marguba Reserves found no elephants and heavy human settlement (Omondi et al., 2006a). Local informants indicated that elephants may no longer be found in their traditional range, save perhaps for a small group to the south of the area covered by the survey. The approximate location of this group is shown as a cross on the map, while the range area depicted in the previous report has been categorized as DOUBTFUL. Population Data An aerial total count of Yankari National Park conducted in July 2006 by the CITES MIKE programme gave an estimate of 348 (Omondi et al., 2006b). This replaces the aerial total count estimate of 328 featured in the previous report (Nicholas, 1999). An aerial survey of the Sambisa and Marguba Reserves returned an estimate of zero (Omondi et al., 2006b). As elephants may no longer occur in these reserves, this figure replaces an INFORMED GUESS of 150 to 210 NIGERIA | WEST AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 250 that included a sighting of at least 130 elephants (Gawaisa, quest. reply, 1998). This replacement is primarily responsible for the net decline of 130 elephants in the DEFINITE category. All other estimates have been retained from the previous report, but estimates for the Chingurmi-Duguma sector of the Chad Basin National Park, Kwiambana Game Reserve, Omo Forest Reserve and Taylor Creek have been degraded to the category of OTHER GUESSES, as they are more than 10 years old. The degradation of these estimates has resulted in a decrease of 235 in the POSSIBLE category and contributed to a net increase of 75 in the SPECULATIVE category. Cross-border Movements A migratory population may still move between Chad Basin National Park and Waza National Park in Cameroon (Bita, 1997; Halla, 2002), but recent reliable information is lacking. Elephants may also move between Nigeria and the Baban Rafi Forest in Niger (Seydou, quest. reply, 1998), and between the Cross River National Park (Oban Division) and Korup National Park in Cameroon (Tooze, 1994). African Elephant Status Report 2007 WEST AFRICA | NIGERIA 211 SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEData Category DEFINITE SUMMARY TOTALS FOR NIGERIA 000348Aerial or Ground Total Counts 10010500Informed Guesses 275000Other Guesses 348 0 105 375TOTALS 2006 TOTALS 2002 478 0 340 300 INTERPRETATION OF CHANGES IN ESTIMATES FROM PREVIOUS REPORT SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEDEFINITECause of Change Repeat Survey +20 0 0 0 Different Technique -150 0 0 -100 Data Degraded 0 0 -235 +175 TOTAL CHANGE -130 0 -235 +75 AREA OF RANGE COVERED BY EACH DATA CATEGORY (km²) 495 1,801 3,821 7,030 13,147 1,570 653 142 7,456 9,821 2,065 2,454 3,964 14,486 22,968TOTAL Unassessed Range Other Guesses Informed Guesses Aerial or Ground Total Counts Total RangePossible RangeKnown RangeData Category 212 NIGERIA | WEST AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 AREA (km²) INPUT ZONE ESTIMATE 95% C.L. SOURCE NUMBER OF ELEPHANTS NIGERIA: ELEPHANT ESTIMATES LAT.LON. MAP LOCATION TYPE RELIAB. SURVEY DETAILS² YEAR CAUSE OF CHANGE¹ PFS³ 4* 215Andoni Island 2002 6 Mshelbwala et al., 2002DIG3 7.5 E 4.5 N––– 3 2,160Chad Basin (Chingurmi-Duguma) National Park Sector 1994 100 Mshelbwala, 1998EIG3 14.4 E 11.7 NDD 2 56* 239Cross River (Okwangwo) National Park 1998 74 Obot et al., 1998DDC3 9.2 E 6.3 N––– 2 30* 5,860Gashaka-Gumti National Park 2002 20 R. Barnwell, pers. comm., 2002DIG3 11.7 E 7.5 N––– 1 10* 2,000Kambari 1998 5 Gawaisa, quest. reply, 1998DIG3 10.6 E 8.8 N––– 2 40* 1,715Kwiambana Game Reserve 1993 80 Hurst, quest. reply, 1994EIG3 6.6 E 11.3 NDD 2 710Marguba Forest Reserve 2006 0 Omondi et al., 2006aAAT3 12.7 E 11.5 NDT 1,082Okomu Game Sanctuary 1991 40 NRCC, 1991EOG3 5.1 E 6.3 N––– 2 20* 1,300Omo Forest Reserve 1994 30 Mshelbwala, 1998EIG3 3.6 E 6.8 NDD 2 647Sambisa 2006 0 Omondi et al., 2006aAAT3 13.4 E 11.3 NDT 145Taylor Creek 1993 25 Thouless, 1993EIG3 6.4 E 5.2 NDD 3 3,224Yankari National Park 2006 348 Omondi et al., 2006bAAT3 10.5 E 9.8 NRS 2 * Range of informed guess ¹ Key to Causes of Change: DA: Different Area; DD: Data Degraded; DT: Different Technique; NA: New Analysis; NG: New Guess; NP: New population; PL: Population Lost; RS: Repeat Survey (RS´ denotes a repeat survey that is not statistically comparable for reasons such as different season); –––: No Change ² Key to Survey Types: AS: Aerial Sample Count; AT: Aerial Total Count; DC: Dung Count; GD: Genetic Dung Count; GS: Ground Sample Count; GT: Ground Total Count; IG: Informed Guess; IR: Individual Registration; OG: Other Guess. Survey Type is followed by an indicator of survey quality, ranked from 1 to 3 (best to worst). Survey Reliability is keyed A-E (best to worst) ³ PFS: Priority for Future Surveys, ranked from 1 to 5 (highest to lowest). Based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of national range accounted for by the site in question, PFS is a measure of the importance and urgency for future population surveys. All areas of unassessed range have a priority of 1. See Introduction for details on how the PFS is derived. African Elephant Status Report 2007 WEST AFRICA | NIGERIA 213 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! D D D D D D D !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P!P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P Niger Vina Djerem Chad Kamuku NP Babules FR Ejaham FR Trois Rivières CF Fungom FR Mbambe FR Sota CF Guéné CF Mbam-Djerem NP Kainji Lake NP Ifon GR Old Oyo NP BinderLéré FnR Kamuku GR Dosso PFR Sambisa GR Marguba Yoko i Djona W du Benin Gagal- Yapala Bayang-Mbo Mt. Cameroon Yabassi Boumba- Bek Nki Dja Abong- Mbang Andoni Island Taylor Creek Korup Okomu Cross River (Okwangwo) Omo Gashaka- Gumti Faro Benoué Kambari Bouba NdjidahSudanian Area Yankari WazaSambisa Kwiambana Chad Basin (Chingurmi- Duguma) W du Niger Babban Rafi Chad Nigeria Niger Mali Cameroon Benin PORTO NOVO Parakou Kandi ABUJA Garoua Maiduguri Calabar Kano Port Harcourt Lagos Enugu Ibadan Ife Kaduna SokotoDosso Maradi Zinder Tahoua YAOUNDE Yoko Douala Bertoua Bafoussam Ngaoundere Maroua Cotonou 3°E 3°E 4°E 4°E 5°E 5°E 6°E 6°E 7°E 7°E 8°E 8°E 9°E 9°E 10°E 10°E 11°E 11°E 12°E 12°E 13°E 13°E 14°E 14°E 3°N 3°N 4°N 4°N 5°N 5°N 6°N 6°N 7°N 7°N 8°N 8°N 9°N 9°N 10°N 10°N 11°N 11°N 12°N 12°N 13°N 13°N 14°N 14°N 15°N 15°N N i g e r i aN i g e r i a This map is unprojected. Scale is indicative only. See Appendix IV for protected area abbreviations. Sources: African Elephant Database Digital Chart of the World African Elephant Specialist Group International Boundary Rivers & Lakes !P Towns Protected Areas Input Zones (variable hatching) Elephant Range Known Possible ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Doubtful D Sighting/sign 0 290 580145 km 214 SENEGAL | WEST AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 S E N E G A L General Statistics Country area: 196,190 km² Range area (% of country): 1,090 km² (4%) Protected area coverage (% of country): 16% Protected range (% of known and possible range in protected areas): 100% Information Quality Index (IQI): 0.10 CITES Appendix: I Listing Year: 1989 Current Issues Elephants appear to be on the brink of disappearing in Senegal. A recent survey found Niokolo-Koba National Park in a serious state of deterioration. Illegal activity was widespread, including cattle grazing, commercial timber exploitation and wildlife poaching. In addition, a planned road improvement project further threatens the integrity of the park. The World Heritage Committee requested the Senegalese authorities to produce a full report on the status of wildlife populations in Niokolo-Koba by the end of January 2007 (UNESCO, 2006). The African Parks Foundation is expected to take over the management of Niokolo-Koba National Park in the hopes of gaining some control over the situation and safeguarding what remains with a view to future recovery. Despite its unviable elephant population, Senegal continues to harbour one of the key unregulated domestic ivory markets in Africa. Ivory originating largely from Central Africa is carved in Senegal and sold to foreign nationals with little or no interference from the authorities (Courouble et al., 2003). Range Data Niokolo-Koba National Park is the last place in Senegal where elephants may still be found. An extensive ground survey, conducted in 2006, found signs of elephant presence to be restricted to the south of the park (Renaud et al., 2006). The area where these signs were found is shown on the map as KNOWN range, while the rest of the park has been categorized as NON-RANGE. Population Data Aerial and ground surveys of the Niokolo-Koba National Park were jointly conducted by the African Parks Foundation and Senegal’s Directorate of National Parks in 2006 (Renaud et al., 2006). No elephants were seen in the aerial survey, making it the fifth consecutive aerial survey of Niokolo-Koba in which no elephants were found (Mauvais, 2002). Six traces of elephant were seen during the ground survey, and surveyors believe there to be at least one, and at most 10, elephants left in the park. This has been entered as an INFORMED GUESS, which replaces a guess of between 3 and 50 (Mauvais, 2002). As a result of this new guess, the number of elephants in the DEFINITE category has declined by one, while the number under the SPECULATIVE category has dropped by 39. Cross-border Movements It is unlikely that elephants move between Niokolo-Koba and Guinea, as there have been no records of elephant presence on the Guinea side since the early 1990s (Litoroh et al., 2002). There has been some discussion on the possibility of establishing a transboundary park to include Niokolo-Koba and Badiar National Park in Guinea (UNESCO, 2006). African Elephant Status Report 2007 WEST AFRICA | SENEGAL 215 SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEData Category DEFINITE SUMMARY TOTALS FOR SENEGAL 9001Informed Guesses 1 0 0 9TOTALS 2006 TOTALS 2002 2 0 0 48 INTERPRETATION OF CHANGES IN ESTIMATES FROM PREVIOUS REPORT SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEDEFINITECause of Change New Guess -1 0 0 -39 TOTAL CHANGE -1 0 0 -39 AREA OF RANGE COVERED BY EACH DATA CATEGORY (km²) 1,090 1,090 1,090 1,090TOTAL Informed Guesses Total RangeKnown RangeData Category 216 SENEGAL | WEST AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 AREA (km²) INPUT ZONE ESTIMATE 95% C.L. SOURCE NUMBER OF ELEPHANTS SENEGAL: ELEPHANT ESTIMATES LAT.LON. MAP LOCATION TYPE RELIAB. SURVEY DETAILS² YEAR CAUSE OF CHANGE¹ PFS³ 9* 8,282Niokolo-Koba National Park 2006 1 Renaud et al., 2006DIG3 13.0 W 13.0 NNG 1 * Range of informed guess ¹ Key to Causes of Change: DA: Different Area; DD: Data Degraded; DT: Different Technique; NA: New Analysis; NG: New Guess; NP: New population; PL: Population Lost; RS: Repeat Survey (RS´ denotes a repeat survey that is not statistically comparable for reasons such as different season); –––: No Change ² Key to Survey Types: AS: Aerial Sample Count; AT: Aerial Total Count; DC: Dung Count; GD: Genetic Dung Count; GS: Ground Sample Count; GT: Ground Total Count; IG: Informed Guess; IR: Individual Registration; OG: Other Guess. Survey Type is followed by an indicator of survey quality, ranked from 1 to 3 (best to worst). Survey Reliability is keyed A-E (best to worst) ³ PFS: Priority for Future Surveys, ranked from 1 to 5 (highest to lowest). Based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of national range accounted for by the site in question, PFS is a measure of the importance and urgency for future population surveys. All areas of unassessed range have a priority of 1. See Introduction for details on how the PFS is derived. African Elephant Status Report 2007 WEST AFRICA | SENEGAL 217 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! D D !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P Gambia Mampaye CF Badiar NP Binasse Sansalé Corubal- Dulombi Niokolo-Koba Senegal Mauritania Mali Guinea Bissau Guinea Gambia Cacheu BafatáMansõa Bignona Tambacounda DAKAR Saint- Louis BISSAU Farim Labe 17°W 17°W 16°W 16°W 15°W 15°W 14°W 14°W 13°W 13°W 12°W 12°W 12°N 12°N 13°N 13°N 14°N 14°N 15°N 15°N 16°N 16°N 17°N 17°N S e n e g a lS e n e g a l This map is unprojected. Scale is indicative only. See Appendix IV for protected area abbreviations. Sources: African Elephant Database Digital Chart of the World African Elephant Specialist Group International Boundary Rivers & Lakes !P Towns Protected Areas Input Zones (variable hatching) Elephant Range Known Possible ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Doubtful D Sighting/sign 0 150 30075 km 218 SIERRA LEONE | WEST AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 S I E R R A L E O N E General Statistics Country area: 71,740 km² Range area (% of country): 1,804 km² (4%) Protected area coverage (% of country): 3% Protected range (% of known and possible range in protected areas): 56% Information Quality Index (IQI): 0.00 CITES Appendix: I Listing Year: 1989 Current Issues Although once widespread, firearms are now becoming increasingly rare, thanks to a vigorous firearm collection programme organized by the United Nations. This is likely to reduce hunting and poaching pressure on elephants. The infrastructure in parks such as Outamba-Kilimi was severely impacted by the civil war, and little or no equipment is available for park staff to conduct their duties. A project to stop legal and illegal logging in the Gola Forest and to transform it into a community-managed national park recently received endorsement from the Government. A National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan, released in 2003, calls for a nationwide census of large mammals, including elephants, to be conducted as a matter of priority. Sierra Leone is in the process of developing a national strategy for the conservation of elephants, and funding is being sought for a workshop. Range Data Recent and reliable information on elephant distribution is lacking, but elephants are known to remain in a number of forest fragments scattered throughout the eastern half of the country. A recent survey of Outamba-Kilimi National Park only found evidence of elephant presence in the southwestern half of the park (Danquah & Nandjui, quest. reply, 2006), and the area depicted as KNOWN range has been corrected accordingly. Some areas in and around the Nimini South and Gola East Forest Reserves appear to be densely settled, according to the Landscan 2002 human population density database (ORNL/GIST, 2002), and have been categorized as DOUBTFUL range (see Introduction section for details on rationale). The presence of elephants in the Gola forests is supported by recent reports of elephant crop raiding and other forms of human-elephant conflict (Mansaray, 2004). These are shown as crosses on the map. Population Data A dung survey of Outamba-Kilimi National Park was conducted in 2005, but no estimate of elephant numbers was produced due to the low dung encounter rate and the lack of an estimate of dung decay (Karimu, 2005). Based on a pilot survey in Outamba-Kilimi between February and April 2006, Nandjui & Danquah (2006) estimate there to be 80 to 100 elephants in the park. This estimate has been categorized as an INFORMED GUESS, and replaces a 1994 guess of 50 (Grubb et al., 1998). The estimate of 5 – 45 for Bagbe River Forest featured in the previous report (A. Kortenhoven, pers. comm., 2002), has been degraded to the category of OTHER GUESSES, as it is now more than 10 years old. All other estimates for Sierra Leone have been retained from the previous report. Cross-border Movements Elephants may move from Sierra Leone into Guinea and Liberia, but there is no information available. African Elephant Status Report 2007 WEST AFRICA | SIERRA LEONE 219 SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEData Category DEFINITE SUMMARY TOTALS FOR SIERRA LEONE 208000Informed Guesses 115000Other Guesses 0 0 80 135TOTALS 2006 TOTALS 2002 0 0 5 205 INTERPRETATION OF CHANGES IN ESTIMATES FROM PREVIOUS REPORT SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEDEFINITECause of Change New Guess 0 0 +80 -30 Data Degraded 0 0 -5 -40 TOTAL CHANGE 0 0 +75 -70 AREA OF RANGE COVERED BY EACH DATA CATEGORY (km²) 358 349 265 972 0 356 476 832 358 705 742 1,804TOTAL Unassessed Range Other Guesses Informed Guesses Total RangePossible RangeKnown RangeData Category 220 SIERRA LEONE | WEST AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 AREA (km²) INPUT ZONE ESTIMATE 95% C.L. SOURCE NUMBER OF ELEPHANTS SIERRA LEONE: ELEPHANT ESTIMATES LAT.LON. MAP LOCATION TYPE RELIAB. SURVEY DETAILS² YEAR CAUSE OF CHANGE¹ PFS³ 45* 349Bagbe River Forest 1995 5 A. Kortenhoven, pers. comm., 2002 EIG3 11.1 W 9.3 NDD 1 287Gola East Forest Reserve 1987 60 Grubb et al., 1998EOG3 11.1 W 7.4 N––– 1 242Gola North Forest Reserve 1987 50 Grubb et al., 1998EOG3 10.9 W 7.6 N––– 1 20* 358Outamba-Kilimi 2006 80 A. Nandjui & E.K.A. Danquah, pers. comm., 2006 DIG3 12.1 W 9.7 NNG 1 * Range of informed guess ¹ Key to Causes of Change: DA: Different Area; DD: Data Degraded; DT: Different Technique; NA: New Analysis; NG: New Guess; NP: New population; PL: Population Lost; RS: Repeat Survey (RS´ denotes a repeat survey that is not statistically comparable for reasons such as different season); –––: No Change ² Key to Survey Types: AS: Aerial Sample Count; AT: Aerial Total Count; DC: Dung Count; GD: Genetic Dung Count; GS: Ground Sample Count; GT: Ground Total Count; IG: Informed Guess; IR: Individual Registration; OG: Other Guess. Survey Type is followed by an indicator of survey quality, ranked from 1 to 3 (best to worst). Survey Reliability is keyed A-E (best to worst) ³ PFS: Priority for Future Surveys, ranked from 1 to 5 (highest to lowest). Based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of national range accounted for by the site in question, PFS is a measure of the importance and urgency for future population surveys. All areas of unassessed range have a priority of 1. See Introduction for details on how the PFS is derived. African Elephant Status Report 2007 WEST AFRICA | SIERRA LEONE 221 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! D D D D D !P !P !P !P !P Rokel GreatScarcies Niger LittleScarcies M ano Loma Mountains FR Nimini South FR Kangar i Hills FR Pincely CF Gola East Gola North Outamba -Kilimi Bagbe Ouré Kaba Gola , Kpelle & Lorma Sierra Leone Liberia Guinea Kenema Mano FREETOWN Magburaka Kabala 13°W 13°W 12°W 12°W 11°W 11°W 7°N 7°N 8°N 8°N 9°N 9°N 10°N 10°N S i e r r a L e o n eS i e r r a L e o n e This map is unprojected. Scale is indicative only. See Appendix IV for protected area abbreviations. Sources: African Elephant Database Digital Chart of the World African Elephant Specialist Group International Boundary Rivers & Lakes !P Towns Protected Areas Input Zones (variable hatching) Elephant Range Known Possible ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Doubtful D Sighting/sign 0 75 15037.5 km 222 TOGO | WEST AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 T O G O General Statistics Country area: 56,790 km² Range area (% of country): 5,444 km² (10%) Protected area coverage (% of country): 13% Protected range (% of known and possible range in protected areas): 79% Information Quality Index (IQI): 0.04 CITES Appendix: I Listing Year: 1989 Current Issues Elephant movements, coupled with Togo’s high human population density and the decreased availability of natural habitat have brought the country’s elephants into direct, and in places severe, conflict with humans (Kotchikpa & Durlot, 2002). Dense settlement may eventually eliminate transboundary elephant movement in and out of Togo. In 2003 Togo published its newly developed national strategy for the conservation of its elephant populations. The strategy identifies human demographic pressure, habitat degradation, poaching, lack of means and capacity, as well as inadequate legislation, as the key threats to elephant populations (Ministère de l'Environnement et des Ressources Forestières, 2003). The strategic objectives include improving scientific information on elephant populations, improving institutional capacity and involving local populations in elephant management, mitigating human-elephant conflict, and reducing poaching. Funds for the implementation of the strategy have not been forthcoming so far. Range Data There are two main areas of elephant range, one in and around Kéran National Park and Outi-Mandouri Faunal Reserve in the north, and the other in the Fazao-Malfakassa massif in the centre of the country. In the drier, northern half, elephants migrate in search of water and visit the area only seasonally (Kotchikpa & Durlot, 2002). The only permanent ranges are currently Fazao-Malfakassa and Abdoulayé Faunal Reserves. The only change to Togo’s range map in this report consists in the reduction of KNOWN range in a densely settled area to the southeast of Kéran National Park. Based on the Landscan 2002 human population density data set (ORNL/GIST, 2002) and recent satellite imagery, this area has been categorized as DOUBTFUL range (see Introduction section for details on rationale). Population Data A transboundary aerial total count covering the entire “WAPOK” complex found no elephants in northern Togo (Bouché et al., 2004b). Estimates of zero from this survey replace INFORMED GUESSES of 16 and 35 for Kéran (Okoumassou, quest. reply, 2002) and Oti-Mandouri (Okoumassou, 1995) respectively. INFORMED GUESSES for Abdoulayé Faunal Reserve, Fazao-Malfakassa and Fosse aux Lions National Parks have been retained from the previous report (2002). These changes, which result in a decline of 51 in the POSSIBLE category, are likely to be due to seasonal elephant movements, rather than to a decline in Togo’s population. Cross-border Movements Togo’s small and fragmented populations of elephants range widely in search of water during the dry season, especially in the north. A study of elephant movements in Togo confirmed the seasonal passage between Togo and Ghana, Benin and Burkina Faso (Kotchikpa & Durlot, 2002), but dense human settlement may be restricting their movement. African Elephant Status Report 2007 WEST AFRICA | TOGO 223 SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEData Category DEFINITE SUMMARY TOTALS FOR TOGO 0000Aerial or Ground Total Counts 06104Informed Guesses 4 0 61 0TOTALS 2006 TOTALS 2002 4 0 112 0 INTERPRETATION OF CHANGES IN ESTIMATES FROM PREVIOUS REPORT SPECULATIVEPOSSIBLEPROBABLEDEFINITECause of Change Different Technique 0 0 -51 0 TOTAL CHANGE 0 0 -51 0 AREA OF RANGE COVERED BY EACH DATA CATEGORY (km²) 1,412 2,319 1,375 5,105 0 0 339 339 1,412 2,319 1,714 5,444TOTAL Unassessed Range Informed Guesses Aerial or Ground Total Counts Total RangePossible RangeKnown RangeData Category 224 TOGO | WEST AFRICA African Elephant Status Report 2007 AREA (km²) INPUT ZONE ESTIMATE 95% C.L. SOURCE NUMBER OF ELEPHANTS TOGO: ELEPHANT ESTIMATES LAT.LON. MAP LOCATION TYPE RELIAB. SURVEY DETAILS² YEAR CAUSE OF CHANGE¹ PFS³ 300Abdoulayé Faunal Reserve 2002 4 Okoumassou, quest. reply, 2002 DIG3 1.3 E 8.7 N––– 2 1,920Fazao-Malfakassa National Park 2002 61 Okoumassou, quest. reply, 2002 DIG3 0.8 E 8.7 N––– 1 17Fosse aux Lions National Park 2002 0 Okoumassou, quest. reply, 2002 DIG3 0.2 E 10.8 N––– 1,402Kéran National Park 2003 0 Bouché et al., 2004bAAT2 0.7 E 10.1 NDT 1,484Oti-Mandori Faunal Reserve 2003 0 Bouché et al., 2004bAAT2 0.7 E 10.6 NDT ¹ Key to Causes of Change: DA: Different Area; DD: Data Degraded; DT: Different Technique; NA: New Analysis; NG: New Guess; NP: New population; PL: Population Lost; RS: Repeat Survey (RS´ denotes a repeat survey that is not statistically comparable for reasons such as different season); –––: No Change ² Key to Survey Types: AS: Aerial Sample Count; AT: Aerial Total Count; DC: Dung Count; GD: Genetic Dung Count; GS: Ground Sample Count; GT: Ground Total Count; IG: Informed Guess; IR: Individual Registration; OG: Other Guess. Survey Type is followed by an indicator of survey quality, ranked from 1 to 3 (best to worst). Survey Reliability is keyed A-E (best to worst) ³ PFS: Priority for Future Surveys, ranked from 1 to 5 (highest to lowest). Based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of national range accounted for by the site in question, PFS is a measure of the importance and urgency for future population surveys. All areas of unassessed range have a priority of 1. See Introduction for details on how the PFS is derived. African Elephant Status Report 2007 WEST AFRICA | TOGO 225 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! D !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P !P White Volta Oti Mono RedVolta Zio L.Volta L. Keta Kogyae SNR Aou Mono CF Barkoissi CF Trois Rivières CF Sota CF Alibori Supérieur CF Kyabobo Range NP Galangashie FnR Fosse aux Lions Mole Abdoulayé Aires de l'EstPo Nazinga - Sissili Pendjari Atakora Chichibon Digya Fazao- Malfakassa Kéran Oti- Mandori Red & White Volta - Morago Zabré Togo Nigeria Ghana Benin Burkina Faso PORTO NOVO Abomey Parakou Kandi LOMÉ Atakpame Sokode Dapaong Kumasi Tamale Po Cotonou 1°W 1°W 0° 0° 1°E 1°E 2°E 2°E 3°E 3°E 6°N 6°N 7°N 7°N 8°N 8°N 9°N 9°N 10°N 10°N 11°N 11°N T o g oT o g o This map is unprojected. Scale is indicative only. See Appendix IV for protected area abbreviations. Sources: African Elephant Database Digital Chart of the World African Elephant Specialist Group International Boundary Rivers & Lakes !P Towns Protected Areas Input Zones (variable hatching) Elephant Range Known Possible ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 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African Elephant Status Report 2007 APPENDIX I | INFORMATION QUALITY INDEX AND PRIORITIES FOR FUTURE SURVEYS 257 COUNTRY IQI ASSESSED RANGE FRACTION PROBABLE FRACTION CHANGE ON PREVIOUS REPORT CONTINENTAL RANGE FRACTION PRIORITY FOR FUTURE SURVEYS REGION Angola 0.64 0.05 0.03 +0.03 12.20% 1S Sudan 0.07 0.00 0.00 +0.00 9.54% 1E Tanzania 0.82 0.66 0.54 +0.11 11.70% 1E Mozambique 0.63 0.77 0.48 +0.05 10.04% 1S Democratic Republic of Congo 0.44 0.40 0.18 +0.02 7.91% 1C Gabon 0.35 0.94 0.33 +0.25 6.56% 1C Zambia 0.77 0.61 0.47 +0.09 6.03% 1S Chad 0.60 0.26 0.15 +0.08 4.48% 1C Cameroon 0.06 0.45 0.03 -0.06 3.55% 1C Congo 0.78 0.23 0.18 +0.14 4.07% 1C Namibia 0.83 0.55 0.46 -0.08 4.40% 2S Kenya 0.78 0.82 0.64 +0.01 3.21% 2E Botswana 0.88 0.99 0.87 +0.02 3.01% 2S Central African Republic 0.54 0.95 0.51 +0.33 2.20% 2C Zimbabwe 0.92 0.99 0.91 +0.28 2.31% 2S Ethiopia 0.36 0.68 0.24 +0.13 1.15% 2E Côte d'Ivoire 0.35 0.72 0.25 +0.21 1.02% 2W Mali 0.55 1.00 0.55 -0.31 0.96% 2W Nigeria 0.42 0.37 0.16 -0.04 0.69% 2W Ghana 0.82 0.42 0.35 +0.18 0.70% 2W Liberia 0.00 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.48% 2W South Africa 0.96 1.00 0.96 +0.02 0.91% 2S Equatorial Guinea 0.00 0.13 0.00 0.00 0.45% 2C Burkina Faso 0.90 0.72 0.64 +0.04 0.60% 2W Uganda 0.66 0.74 0.49 -0.23 0.45% 3E Benin 1.00 0.51 0.51 +0.12 0.41% 3W Malawi 0.19 0.89 0.17 -0.30 0.23% 3S Togo 0.06 0.69 0.04 +0.02 0.16% 3W Somalia 0.00 0.68 0.00 0.00 0.14% 3E Eritrea 0.92 1.00 0.92 +0.23 0.16% 3E Sierra Leone 0.00 0.59 0.00 0.00 0.05% 3W Niger 0.83 1.00 0.83 +0.31 0.08% 3W Guinea Bissau 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.04% 3W Guinea 0.61 0.78 0.47 +0.47 0.05% 4W Senegal 0.10 1.00 0.10 +0.06 0.03% 4W Rwanda 0.29 1.00 0.29 -0.02 0.03% 4E Swaziland 1.00 1.00 1.00 +0.00 0.00% 5S A P P E N D I X I I N F O R M A T I O N Q U A L I T Y I N D E X A N D P R I O R I T I E S F O R F U T U R E S U R V E Y S African Elephant Status Report 2007 APPENDIX II | COMPARABLE ESTIMATES FROM EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AFRICA 258 Eastern Africa METH.YEAR EST. 95% CLSURVEY ZONE Amboseli IR1 IR12002 2005 1,417 1,100 Kenya Tsavo AT3 AT32002 2005 9,021 8,344 Tsavo (Outside) AT3 AT32002 2005 1,335 877 Selous AS3 AS32002 2006 70,406 65,811 15,281 24,843± ± Tanzania Serengeti AT3 AT32000 2006 1,560 1,631 Rukwa AS2 AS32002 2006 1,200 263 339 902± ± Ruaha-Rungwa AS2 AS32002 2006 35,409 24,103 5,869 11,507± ± Mkomazi AT3 AT32002 2005 41 63 Katavi-Rukwa (Outside) AS2 AS32002 2006 915 591 804 606± ± Katavi AS2 AS32002 2006 4,102 4,897 4,465 1,615± ± Ugalla River AS3 AS31999 2006 4,133 1,911 1,313 1,778± ± 19,948 32,356±Total difference for Eastern African sites: No rates of change calculated for Eastern Africa for lack of a significant result NS 2002 2006 109,591 129,539 27,505 17,040± ± Totals for Eastern African sites: 3.99 Percentage of regional DEFINITE plus PROBABLE estimate accounted for by comparable estimates: 77.79% Southern Africa METH.YEAR EST. 95% CLSURVEY ZONE Northern Botswana AS3 AS21999 2006 153,620 120,604 21,237 20,818± ± Botswana Niassa AS2 AS22002 2004 12,477 13,061 2,433 2,111± ± Mozambique Magoe AS2 AS22001 2003 1,628 1,264 1,359 794± ± Khaudom/Nyae-Nyae AS1 AS22000 2004 4,754 1,966 973 2,339± ± Namibia Etosha AS1 AS12002 2004 2,057 2,417 663 598± ± Caprivi AS2 AS21998 2004 8,725 4,576 1,223 2,206± ± Balule AT3 AT32002 2006 457 80 South Africa * statistically significant difference NS not significant A P P E N D I X I I C O M P A R A B L E E S T I M A T E S F R O M E A S T E R N A N D S O U T H E R N A F R I C A African Elephant Status Report 2007 APPENDIX II | COMPARABLE ESTIMATES FROM EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AFRICA 259 Marakele IR1 AT32002 2005 110 121 South Africa Makuya AT2 AT22002 2006 54 27 Makalali GT1 GT12002 2005 72 59 Madikwe AT3 AT32002 2005 455 318 Kruger AT2 AT22002 2006 12,427 10,459 Knysna IR1 IR12002 2005 4 4 Klaserie AT2 AT22002 2006 569 467 Greater St Lucia AT3 AT32002 2005 45 31 Atherstone AT3 AT32002 2005 60 32 Addo Elephant IR1 IR12002 2005 459 337 Phalaborwa AT2 AT22002 2006 77 23 Pilanesberg AT3 AT32002 2005 140 142 Itala GT1 GT12002 2005 84 61 Venetia-Limpopo AT3 AT32002 2005 61 59 Mkuzi IR1 IR12002 2005 37 28 Welgevonden AT3 AT32002 2005 100 67 Umbabat AT2 AT22002 2006 163 88 Timbavati AT2 AT22002 2006 712 372 Tembe IR1 AT32002 2005 167 140 Selati GT1 GT12002 2005 85 56 Sabie Sands AT2 AT22002 2006 857 757 Pongola IR1 IR12002 2005 55 33 Mkhaya IR1 IR12002 2005 15 19 Swaziland Hlane IR1 IR12002 2005 13 20 Mukungule AS2 AS32001 2003 156 156 112 119± ± Zambia Mulobezi AS2 AS21997 2004 55 0 96± * statistically significant difference NS not significant 260 COMPARABLE ESTIMATES FROM EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AFRICA | APPENDIX II African Elephant Status Report 2007 Sioma Ngwezi AS2 AT31996 2005 385 250 0 371± Zambia Sichifulo AS2 AS21997 2004 0 374 686± Rufunsa AS2 AS31996 2003 0 0 Chanjuzi AS3 AS32001 2004 65 114 214 81± ± Lunga-Luswishi AS2 AS21997 2004 195 0 169± Lukusuzi AS1 AS21994 2005 0 110 190 0 ± Luawata AS2 AS32001 2003 968 189 274 652± ± Lower Zambezi AS2 AS21996 2003 1,477 232 457 744± ± Kasonso-Busanga AS2 AS21997 2004 401 0 378± Chiawa AS2 AS21996 2003 45 48 102 53± ± North Luangwa AS3 AS32001 2003 3,235 3,750 1,076 695± ± Sijarira AS2 AS22001 2006 488 33 33 333± ± Zimbabwe Save Valley AS1 AS12001 2003 527 535 318 310± ± North Gokwe AS2 AS22001 2006 192 791 621 172± ± Matusadona AS2 AS22001 2006 1,925 1,716 603 443± ± Kariba AS2 AS22001 2006 3,715 2,373 802 1,033± ± Chizarira AS1 AS22001 2006 3,071 5,011 1,171 1,117± ± Chete AS2 AS22001 2006 971 1,219 542 310± ± Zambezi Valley AS2 AS22001 2003 19,981 19,297 2,493 2,392± ± Binga AS2 AS22001 2006 431 836 385 373± ± Chirisa AS2 AS22001 2006 4,231 1,977 1,091 1,260± ± 46,354 30,588±Total difference for Southern African sites: Average annual rate of increase for Southern African sites: 3.88% (CI 1.06% to 6.39%) * 2002 2005 196,699 243,053 21,477 21,780± ± Totals for Southern African sites: 5.56 Percentage of regional DEFINITE plus PROBABLE estimate accounted for by comparable estimates: 75.74% * statistically significant difference NS not significant African Elephant Status Report 2007 APPENDIX II | COMPARABLE ESTIMATES FROM EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AFRICA 261 66,302 44,525±Total difference for sites listed Average annual rate of increase for all sites: 4.00% (CI 1.14% to 6.58%) Totals for all sites listed * 2002 306,290 372,5922005 ± ± 34,897 27,654 Percentage of continental DEFINITE plus PROBABLE estimate accounted for by comparable estimates: 67.14% 95% CLESTIMATEMEDIAN YEAR 4.99 Summary for Southern and Eastern African sites combined * statistically significant difference NS not significant 262 ALPHABETICAL LIST OF PROTECTED AREAS IN ELEPHANT RANGE | APPENDIX III African Elephant Status Report 2007 A P P E N D I X I I I A L P H A B E T I C A L L I S T O F P R O T E C T E D A R E A S I N E L E P H A N T R A N G E Protected Area Country (Region) IUCN Categ. Area (km²) Year Created IVAbdoulayé Faunal Reserve Togo (West Africa)300 1951 IIAberdare National Park Kenya (Eastern Africa)766 1950 ?Abokouamékro Faunal Reserve Côte d'Ivoire (West Africa)135 1993 VIAbong-Mbang Forest Reserve Cameroon (Central Africa)1,540 ? IVAbou Telfane Faunal Reserve Chad (Central Africa)1,100 1955 IIAddo Elephant National Park South Africa (Southern Africa)1,250 1931 IIAkagera National Park Rwanda (Eastern Africa)1,018 1934 VIAkobo Controlled Hunting Area Ethiopia (Eastern Africa)5,049 1973 VIAlibori Supérieur Classified Forest Benin (West Africa)2,560 1995 IIAltos de Nsork National Park Equatorial Guinea (Central Africa)691 2000 IIAmboseli National Park Kenya (Eastern Africa)392 1974 IIAndre Felix National Park Central African Republic (Central Africa)1,700 1960 VIAnkasa Game Production Reserve Ghana (West Africa)343 1976 VIAou Mono Classified Forest Togo (West Africa)65 ? IVAouk-Aoukale Faunal Reserve Central African Republic (Central Africa)3,300 1939 IIArly National Park Burkina Faso (West Africa)930 1954 IIArusha National Park Tanzania (Eastern Africa)132 1967 VIAssin-Attandanso Game Production Reserve Ghana (West Africa)140 1991 VIAtakora Hunting Zone Benin (West Africa)1,220 1954 IVAtherstone Nature Reserve South Africa (Southern Africa)136 1990 IVAvakaba Presidential Park Central African Republic (Central Africa)2,500 1980 IIAzagny National Park Côte d'Ivoire (West Africa)190 1981 IIBabille Elephant Sanctuary Ethiopia (Eastern Africa)6,982 1970 VIBabules Forest Reserve Cameroon (Central Africa)530 ? IIBadiar National Park Guinea (West Africa)382 1985 IVBahr Salamat Faunal Reserve Chad (Central Africa)20,600 1964 IIBamingui-Bangoran National Park Central African Republic (Central Africa)10,700 1933 IIBandingilo Game Reserve Sudan (Eastern Africa)16,500 1986 VIBangassou Forest Reserve Central African Republic (Central Africa)16,600 ? VIBangweulu Game Management Area Zambia (Southern Africa)6,570 1971 IIBanhine National Park Mozambique (Southern Africa)7,000 1972 VIBanyang-Mbo Wildlife Sanctuary Cameroon (Central Africa)691 1996 VIBarkoissi Classified Forest Togo (West Africa)25 ? VIBarrobo National Forest Liberia (West Africa)640 ? IVBas Chari Faunal Reserve Chad (Central Africa)975 ? VIBeki-Bossematie Classified Forest Côte d'Ivoire (West Africa)389 ? IVBengangai Game Reserve Sudan (Eastern Africa)170 1939 IIBenoué National Park Cameroon (Central Africa)1,800 1968 VIBia Game Production Reserve Ghana (West Africa)228 1974 IIBia National Park Ghana (West Africa)78 1974 African Elephant Status Report 2007 APPENDIX III | ALPHABETICAL LIST OF PROTECTED AREAS IN ELEPHANT RANGE 263 Protected Area Country (Region) IUCN Categ. Area (km²) Year Created IVBiharamulo Game Reserve Tanzania (Eastern Africa)1,300 1959 IIBikuar National Park Angola (Southern Africa)7,900 1964 VIBilili Springs Game Management Area Zambia (Southern Africa)3,080 1971 VIBili-Uere Hunting Reserve Democratic Republic of Congo (Central Africa)6,000 ? IVBinder-Léré Faunal Reserve Chad (Central Africa)1,350 1974 VIBire Kpatuos Game Reserve Sudan (Eastern Africa)445 1939 IIBiringou National Park Gabon (Central Africa)708 2002 VIBisanadi National Reserve Kenya (Eastern Africa)606 1979 IIBoma National Park Sudan (Eastern Africa)22,800 1986 IBomu Strict Nature Reserve Democratic Republic of Congo (Central Africa)10,700 ? VIBoni National Reserve Kenya (Eastern Africa)1,339 1976 IVBontioli Total Faunal Reserve Burkina Faso (West Africa)127 1957 IVBontioli Partial Faunal Reserve Burkina Faso (West Africa)295 1957 VIBorana Controlled Hunting Area Ethiopia (Eastern Africa)45,366 1973 IIBouba Ndjidah National Park Cameroon (Central Africa)2,200 1968 VIBoumba-Bek National Park Cameroon (Central Africa)2,500 2005 VIBoundiali Classified Forest Côte d'Ivoire (West Africa)350 ? IVBufalo Partial Reserve Angola (Southern Africa)400 1974 IIBuffalo Springs National Reserve Kenya (Eastern Africa)131 1985 IVBugungu Wildlife Reserve Uganda (Eastern Africa)553 1968 IVBurigi Game Reserve Tanzania (Eastern Africa)2,200 1972 VIBushimae Hunting Zone Democratic Republic of Congo (Central Africa)600 ? IIBwabwata National Park Namibia (Southern Africa)5,828 2002 IIBwindi Impenetrable Forest National Park Uganda (Eastern Africa)336 1991 IVCampo Faunal Reserve Cameroon (Central Africa)3,000 ? IICampo Ma'an National Park Cameroon (Central Africa)2,550 2000 IIChad Basin National Park Nigeria (West Africa)2,300 ? VICharara Safari Area Zimbabwe (Southern Africa)1,694 1975 VIChete Safari Area Zimbabwe (Southern Africa)1,081 1975 IVChew Bahr Wildlife Reserve Ethiopia (Eastern Africa)4,212 1973 VIChewore Safari Area Zimbabwe (Southern Africa)3,390 1964 VIChiawa Game Management Area Zambia (Southern Africa)900 ? VIChibwika-Ntambu Game Management Area Zambia (Southern Africa)1,550 1971 VChimalavera Regional Nature Park Angola (Southern Africa)100 1974 VIChipinge Safari Area Zimbabwe (Southern Africa)261 1975 VIChirisa Safari Area Zimbabwe (Southern Africa)1,713 1975 VIChisomo Game Management Area Zambia (Southern Africa)3,390 1971 IIChizarira National Park Zimbabwe (Southern Africa)1,910 1975 VIChizera Game Management Area Zambia (Southern Africa)2,280 1971 IIChobe National Park Botswana (Southern Africa)10,570 1968 IIChyulu Hills National Reserve Kenya (Eastern Africa)471 1983 IIComoé National Park Côte d'Ivoire (West Africa)11,500 1968 IICounkouati-Douli National Park Congo (Central Africa)5,045 2000 IICross River National Park Nigeria (West Africa)4,000 1991 VIDabus Valley Controlled Hunting Area Ethiopia (Eastern Africa)1,227 1973 UADadieso Forest Reserve Ghana (West Africa)171 1977 264 ALPHABETICAL LIST OF PROTECTED AREAS IN ELEPHANT RANGE | APPENDIX III African Elephant Status Report 2007 Protected Area Country (Region) IUCN Categ. Area (km²) Year Created VIDande Safari Area Zimbabwe (Southern Africa)523 1975 VIDeka Safari Area Zimbabwe (Southern Africa)510 1975 IVDeux Bales Classified Forest Burkina Faso (West Africa)566 1967 VIDibon Classified Forest Burkina Faso (West Africa)225 ? VIDiefoula Classified Forest Burkina Faso (West Africa)880 ? IIDigya National Park Ghana (West Africa)3,478 1971 IVDimonika Biosphere Reserve Congo (Central Africa)1,225 1988 UADisue River Forest Reserve Ghana (West Africa)24 1943 IVDja Faunal Reserve Cameroon (Central Africa)5,260 1950 VIDjoli Kera Forest Reserve Chad (Central Africa)950 ? VIDjona Hunting Zone Benin (West Africa)1,880 1980 VIDodori National Reserve Kenya (Eastern Africa)877 1976 VIDoma Safari Area Zimbabwe (Southern Africa)945 1975 IVDosso Partial Faunal Reserve Niger (West Africa)4,075 1962 IVDouentza Elephant Faunal Reserve Mali (West Africa)12,000 1959 IIDzanga-Ndoki National Park Central African Republic (Central Africa)1,220 1990 VIDzanga-Sangha Special Reserve Central African Republic (Central Africa)3,359 1990 VIEjaham Forest Reserve Cameroon (Central Africa)715 ? IV?Estuario del Muni Nature Reserve Equatorial Guinea (Central Africa)600 2000 IIEtosha National Park Namibia (Southern Africa)22,270 1907 IIFaro National Park Cameroon (Central Africa)3,300 1980 IIFazao-Malfakassa National Park Togo (West Africa)1,920 1951 IIFosse aux Lions National Park Togo (West Africa)17 1954 VIFoumbou Classified Forest Côte d'Ivoire (West Africa)480 ? VIFungom Forest Reserve Cameroon (Central Africa)360 ? IVGalangashie Faunal Reserve Togo (West Africa)75 1954 IIGambella National Park Ethiopia (Eastern Africa)5,061 1974 VIGangala-na-bodio Hunting Reserve Democratic Republic of Congo (Central Africa)9,859 ? IIGaramba National Park Democratic Republic of Congo (Central Africa)4,920 1938 IIGashaka-Gumti National Park Nigeria (West Africa)5,860 1991 VIGbi National Forest Liberia (West Africa)610 ? IVGilé Game Reserve Mozambique (Southern Africa)2,100 1960 VIGoin-Cavally and Goin-Debe Classified Forest Côte d'Ivoire (West Africa)1,890 ? VIGola National Forest Liberia (West Africa)2,071 ? VIGola East and West Forest Reserve Sierra Leone (West Africa)295 ? VIGola North Forest Reserve Sierra Leone (West Africa)480 ? VIGola North Extension Forest Reserve Sierra Leone (West Africa)70 ? IIGonarezhou National Park Zimbabwe (Southern Africa)5,053 1975 IIGorongosa National Park Mozambique (Southern Africa)3,750 1960 VIGoungoun Classified Forest Benin (West Africa)732 1950 IIGreater St. Lucia Wetland Park South Africa (Southern Africa)2,587 1895 VIGrebo National Forest Liberia (West Africa)2,604 ? IVGribingui-Bamingui Faunal Reserve Central African Republic (Central Africa)4,380 1940 IVGrumeti Game Reserve Tanzania (Eastern Africa)2,000 1994 VIGuéné Classified Forest Benin (West Africa)13 1942 VIHartley Safari Area Zimbabwe (Southern Africa)445 1975 African Elephant Status Report 2007 APPENDIX III | ALPHABETICAL LIST OF PROTECTED AREAS IN ELEPHANT RANGE 265 Protected Area Country (Region) IUCN Categ. Area (km²) Year Created IHaut Bandama Fauna and Flora Reserve Côte d'Ivoire (West Africa)1,230 1973 VIHaut Dodo/Grah/Hana Classified Forest Côte d'Ivoire (West Africa)1,905 ? VIHaut Sassandra Classified Forest Côte d'Ivoire (West Africa)1,024 ? VIHlane Royal National Park Swaziland (Southern Africa)142 1967 IIHluhluwe-Umfolozi Park South Africa (Southern Africa)965 1989 UAHobatere Concession Area Namibia (Southern Africa)230 ? VIHurungwe Safari Area Zimbabwe (Southern Africa)2,878 1975 IIHwange National Park Zimbabwe (Southern Africa)14,651 1949 IVIbanda Game Reserve Tanzania (Eastern Africa)200 1974 IVIfon Game Reserve Nigeria (West Africa)500 ? VIIguela Hunting Area Gabon (Central Africa)1,800 1962 IVIkorongo Game Reserve Tanzania (Eastern Africa)3,000 1994 VIIona National Park Angola (Southern Africa)15,150 1964 IIIsangano National Park Zambia (Southern Africa)840 1972 IIItala Nature Reserve South Africa (Southern Africa)297 1972 IIIvindo National Park Gabon (Central Africa)3,000 2002 VIJikao Controlled Hunting Area Ethiopia (Eastern Africa)3,375 1973 VIKafinda Game Management Area Zambia (Southern Africa)3,860 1971 IIKafue National Park Zambia (Southern Africa)22,400 1951 IIKahuzi-Biega National Park Democratic Republic of Congo (Central Africa)6,000 1975 IIKainji Lake National Park Nigeria (West Africa)5,320 1975 IIKakum National Park Ghana (West Africa)207 1991 IIKalamaloue National Park Cameroon (Central Africa)45 1972 UAKalinzu Forest Reserve Uganda (Eastern Africa)141 ? VIKalio Classified Forest Burkina Faso (West Africa)275 ? VIKaluanyembe Game Management Area Zambia (Southern Africa)3,425 ? IVKambari Game Reserve Nigeria (West Africa)414 1969 VIKamnarok National Reserve Kenya (Eastern Africa)50 1983 IVKamuku Game Reserve Nigeria (West Africa)200 ? IIKamuku National Park Nigeria (West Africa)1,211 1999 VIKangari Hills Forest Reserve Sierra Leone (West Africa)86 1924 VIKansonso-Busanga Game Management Area Zambia (Southern Africa)7,780 1971 VIKaputa Game Management Area Zambia (Southern Africa)3,600 1971 VKariba Recreation Park Zimbabwe (Southern Africa)2,830 1979 IVKaruma Wildlife Reserve Uganda (Eastern Africa)696 1964 IIKasanka National Park Zambia (Southern Africa)390 1972 UAKashoya-Kitomi Forest Reserve Uganda (Eastern Africa)385 1932 IIKasungu National Park Malawi (Southern Africa)2,316 1970 IIKatavi National Park Tanzania (Eastern Africa)4,241 1974 UAKatokota Game Ranch Zambia (Southern Africa)15 ? IIKazuma Pan National Park Zimbabwe (Southern Africa)313 1975 IIKéran National Park Togo (West Africa)1,636 1977 IVKhaudom Game Park Namibia (Southern Africa)3,842 1989 IIKibale National Park Uganda (Eastern Africa)766 1993 VIKidepo Game Reserve Sudan (Eastern Africa)1,975 1975 IIKidepo Valley National Park Uganda (Eastern Africa)1,416 1962 266 ALPHABETICAL LIST OF PROTECTED AREAS IN ELEPHANT RANGE | APPENDIX III African Elephant Status Report 2007 Protected Area Country (Region) IUCN Categ. Area (km²) Year Created IVKigezi Wildlife Reserve Uganda (Eastern Africa)850 1952 IVKigosi Game Reserve Tanzania (Eastern Africa)7,000 1983 IVKilombero Conservation Area Tanzania (Eastern Africa)7,282 ? VIKinkene/Nyellepuo-Nzi Classified Forest Côte d'Ivoire (West Africa)1,865 ? IVKizigo Game Reserve Tanzania (Eastern Africa)4,000 1982 UAKlaserie Private Nature Reserve South Africa (Southern Africa)628 ? IKogyae Strict Nature Reserve Ghana (West Africa)386 1971 IVKonkombouri Partial Faunal Reserve Burkina Faso (West Africa)1,300 1954 IIKora National Reserve Kenya (Eastern Africa)1,788 1989 IIKorup National Park Cameroon (Central Africa)1,259 1986 IVKoukourou-Bamingui Faunal Reserve Central African Republic (Central Africa)1,100 1940 IVKourtiagou Partial Faunal Reserve Burkina Faso (West Africa)510 1957 VIKpelle National Forest Liberia (West Africa)1,749 ? VIKrahn Bassa National Forest Liberia (West Africa)5,142 ? IIKruger National Park South Africa (Southern Africa)19,624 1926 IVKwiambana Game Reserve Nigeria (West Africa)1,715 ? IIKyabobo Range National Park Ghana (West Africa)415 ? IVKyambura Wildlife Reserve Uganda (Eastern Africa)213 1965 VILaba Classified Forest Burkina Faso (West Africa)150 ? IILac Lobéké National Park Cameroon (Central Africa)1,839 2001 VI?Lac Telé Community Reserve Congo (Central Africa)4,390 2002 IILake Manyara National Park Tanzania (Eastern Africa)330 1960 IILavushi Manda National Park Zambia (Southern Africa)1,500 1972 IVLefini Faunal Reserve Congo (Central Africa)4,595 1951 IILengwe National Park Malawi (Southern Africa)887 1970 IVLetaba Ranch Private Game Reserve South Africa (Southern Africa)420 1981 IILimpopo National Park Mozambique (Southern Africa)10,736 2001 IILiwonde National Park Malawi (Southern Africa)538 1973 IILoango National Park Gabon (Central Africa)1,550 2002 VILogoniegue Classified Forest Burkina Faso (West Africa)355 ? IILoma Mountains Forest Reserve Sierra Leone (West Africa)332 1952 IILopé National Park Gabon (Central Africa)5,000 2002 VILorma National Forest Liberia (West Africa)435 ? VILosai National Reserve Kenya (Eastern Africa)1,806 1976 IILower Zambezi National Park Zambia (Southern Africa)4,092 1983 VILuama Hunting Zone Democratic Republic of Congo (Central Africa)3,435 1935 IILuambe National Park Zambia (Southern Africa)254 1972 VILuano Game Management Area Zambia (Southern Africa)8,930 1971 IVLuiana Partial Reserve Angola (Southern Africa)8,400 1966 IILukusuzi National Park Zambia (Southern Africa)2,720 1972 VILukwakwa Game Management Area Zambia (Southern Africa)2,540 1971 IVLukwati Game Reserve Tanzania (Eastern Africa)1,201 ? VILumimba Game Management Area Zambia (Southern Africa)4,500 1971 VILunga-Luswishi Game Management Area Zambia (Southern Africa)13,340 1971 VILupande Game Management Area Zambia (Southern Africa)4,840 1971 IVMadikwe Nature Reserve South Africa (Southern Africa)700 1992 African Elephant Status Report 2007 APPENDIX III | ALPHABETICAL LIST OF PROTECTED AREAS IN ELEPHANT RANGE 267 Protected Area Country (Region) IUCN Categ. Area (km²) Year Created IIMago National Park Ethiopia (Eastern Africa)2,162 1978 IIMahale Mountains National Park Tanzania (Eastern Africa)1,577 1985 IIMaiko National Park Democratic Republic of Congo (Central Africa)10,830 1970 IVMajete Wildlife Reserve Malawi (Southern Africa)700 1955 IIMakgadikgadi National Park Botswana (Southern Africa)4,877 1992 IVMakuya Park South Africa (Southern Africa)165 1994 VIMalipati Safari Area Zimbabwe (Southern Africa)154 1975 IIMalka Mari National Park Kenya (Eastern Africa)876 1989 IVMalolotja Nature Reserve Swaziland (Southern Africa)182 1972 IIMamili National Park Namibia (Southern Africa)1,010 1990 VIMampaye Classified Forest Senegal (West Africa)80 ? IIMana Pools National Park Zimbabwe (Southern Africa)2,196 1975 IVMandelia Faunal Reserve Chad (Central Africa)1,380 1969 UAMangetti Game Reserve Namibia (Southern Africa)420 ? UAMangochi Forest Reserve Malawi (Southern Africa)325 1924 VManjirenji Recreation Park Zimbabwe (Southern Africa)34 ? IIManovo-Gounda-Saint Floris National Park Central African Republic (Central Africa)17,400 1933 IVManyeleti Game Reserve South Africa (Southern Africa)228 1967 IIMapungubwe National Park South Africa (Southern Africa)210 2004 IVMaputo Game Reserve Mozambique (Southern Africa)900 1969 IIMarahoué National Park Côte d'Ivoire (West Africa)1,010 1968 IIMarakele National Park South Africa (Southern Africa)380 1987 IVMaralal National Sanctuary Kenya (Eastern Africa)155 1988 VIMaro Classified Forest Burkina Faso (West Africa)475 ? IVMarromeu Game Reserve Mozambique (Southern Africa)1,100 ? IIMarsabit National Reserve Kenya (Eastern Africa)1,554 1949 IIMarsabit National Park Kenya (Eastern Africa)350 1967 IIMasai Mara National Reserve Kenya (Eastern Africa)1,510 1974 IMassif du Ziama Strict Nature Reserve Guinea (West Africa)1,123 1943 IVMaswa Game Reserve Tanzania (Eastern Africa)2,200 1962 VIMatetsi Safari Area Zimbabwe (Southern Africa)2,955 1975 IIMatusadona National Park Zimbabwe (Southern Africa)1,407 1975 IVMavinga Partial Reserve Angola (Southern Africa)5,950 1966 VIMbambe Forest Reserve Cameroon (Central Africa)305 ? IIMbam-Djerem National Park Cameroon (Central Africa)4,170 2000 VIMbarizunga Game Reserve Sudan (Eastern Africa)615 1939 IIMbé National Park Gabon (Central Africa)600 2002 UAMengame Wildlife Sanctuary Cameroon (Central Africa)1,218 2001 IIMeru National Park Kenya (Eastern Africa)870 1966 IIMgahinga Gorilla National Park Uganda (Eastern Africa)67 1991 IIMikumi National Park Tanzania (Eastern Africa)3,230 1964 IIMinkébé National Park Gabon (Central Africa)7,567 2002 VIMizan-Teferi Controlled Hunting Area Ethiopia (Eastern Africa)3,146 1985 VIMkhaya Nature Reserve Swaziland (Southern Africa)65 1981 IVMkomazi Game Reserve Tanzania (Eastern Africa)3,000 1951 IVMkungunero Game Reserve Tanzania (Eastern Africa)768 0 268 ALPHABETICAL LIST OF PROTECTED AREAS IN ELEPHANT RANGE | APPENDIX III African Elephant Status Report 2007 Protected Area Country (Region) IUCN Categ. Area (km²) Year Created IIMkuzi Game Reserve South Africa (Southern Africa)380 1912 IVMoçamedes Partial Reserve Angola (Southern Africa)4,450 1960 IIMole National Park Ghana (West Africa)4,840 1971 UAMongokele Forest Reserve Cameroon (Central Africa)850 ? IVMont Fouari Faunal Reserve Congo (Central Africa)156 1958 VIMont Gbande Classified Forest Côte d'Ivoire (West Africa)225 ? IVMont Mavoumbou Hunting Reserve Congo (Central Africa)420 1955 IMont Nimba Strict Nature Reserve Côte d'Ivoire (West Africa)50 1944 IMont Nimba Strict Nature Reserve Guinea (West Africa)130 1944 IIMont Péko National Park Côte d'Ivoire (West Africa)340 1968 IIMont Sangbe National Park Côte d'Ivoire (West Africa)950 1976 IIMonte Alén National Park Equatorial Guinea (Central Africa)2,000 1990 IVMoremi Game Reserve Botswana (Southern Africa)4,968 1965 IIMosi-oa-Tunya National Park Zambia (Southern Africa)66 1972 VIMoukalaba Hunting Area Gabon (Central Africa)200 1962 IIMoukalaba-Dougoua National Park Gabon (Central Africa)4,495 2002 IIMount Elgon National Park Kenya (Eastern Africa)169 1968 IIMount Elgon National Park Uganda (Eastern Africa)1,264 ? IIMount Kenya National Park Kenya (Eastern Africa)718 1949 IIMt Seni National Park Gabon (Central Africa)600 2002 UAMt. Tia Classified Forest Côte d'Ivoire (West Africa)163 1980 IIMudumo National Park Namibia (Southern Africa)320 1990 IVMuhesi Game Reserve Tanzania (Eastern Africa)2,000 1994 VIMulobezi Game Management Area Zambia (Southern Africa)3,420 1971 VIMumbwa Game Management Area Zambia (Southern Africa)3,370 1971 VIMunyamadzi Game Management Area Zambia (Southern Africa)3,300 1971 VIMupa National Park Angola (Southern Africa)6,600 1964 IIMurchison Falls National Park Uganda (Eastern Africa)3,795 1952 VIMurle Controlled Hunting Area Ethiopia (Eastern Africa)4,172 1973 VIMusalangu Game Management Area Zambia (Southern Africa)17,350 1971 VIMusele-Matebo Game Management Area Zambia (Southern Africa)3,700 1971 IVMwabvi Wildlife Reserve Malawi (Southern Africa)135 1953 IIMwagne National Park Gabon (Central Africa)1,132 2002 VIMwea National Reserve Kenya (Eastern Africa)68 1976 IIMweru wa Ntipa National Park Zambia (Southern Africa)3,134 1972 VINamwala Game Management Area Zambia (Southern Africa)3,600 1971 IVNana-Barya Faunal Reserve Central African Republic (Central Africa)2,300 1960 IINasolot National Reserve Kenya (Eastern Africa)194 1979 VNational West Coast Tourist Recreation Area Namibia (Southern Africa)7,800 1973 VINazinga Game Ranch Burkina Faso (West Africa)940 ? VINgorongoro Conservation Area Tanzania (Eastern Africa)8,300 1959 VINgove-Ndogo Hunting Area Gabon (Central Africa)2,500 1962 IVNiassa Game Reserve Mozambique (Southern Africa)15,000 1960 VINiegré Classified Forest Côte d'Ivoire (West Africa)1,056 ? UANimini South Forest Reserve Sierra Leone (West Africa)26 1 IINimule National Park Sudan (Eastern Africa)410 1954 African Elephant Status Report 2007 APPENDIX III | ALPHABETICAL LIST OF PROTECTED AREAS IN ELEPHANT RANGE 269 Protected Area Country (Region) IUCN Categ. Area (km²) Year Created IINini-Suhien National Park Ghana (West Africa)160 1976 IINiokolo-Koba National Park Senegal (West Africa)9,130 1954 VINkala Game Management Area Zambia (Southern Africa)194 1971 IVNkhota-Kota Wildlife Reserve Malawi (Southern Africa)1,802 1954 VINki National Park Cameroon (Central Africa)1,815 2005 VINorth East National Forest Liberia (West Africa)130 ? VINorth Kitui National Reserve Kenya (Eastern Africa)745 1979 UANorth Lorma Conservation Area Liberia (West Africa)675 ? IINorth Luangwa National Park Zambia (Southern Africa)4,636 1972 IINouabalé-Ndoki National Park Congo (Central Africa)3,866 1994 IINsumbu National Park Zambia (Southern Africa)2,063 1985 VINumatina Game Reserve Sudan (Eastern Africa)3,865 1939 IINxai Pan National Park Botswana (Southern Africa)2,770 1971 IVNyanga Nord Faunal Reserve Congo (Central Africa)77 1958 IVNyanga Sud Faunal Reserve Congo (Central Africa)230 1958 IINyika National Park Malawi (Southern Africa)3,134 1965 IVN'Zo Partial Faunal Reserve Côte d'Ivoire (West Africa)950 1972 IVOandjia-Vakaga Faunal Reserve Central African Republic (Central Africa)1,300 1925 IIOdzala - Kokoua National Park Congo (Central Africa)13,546 2001 IIOkapi National Park Democratic Republic of Congo (Central Africa)13,700 1992 IIOkomu Forest Reserve Nigeria (West Africa)1,082 1978 IIOld Oyo National Park Nigeria (West Africa)2,530 1991 IIOmo National Park Ethiopia (Eastern Africa)4,068 1966 IVOti-Mandouri Faunal Reserve Togo (West Africa)1,478 ? IVOuanga Plain Faunal Reserve Gabon (Central Africa)200 1966 IVOutamba-Kilimi National Park Sierra Leone (West Africa)808 1986 VIPa Classified Forest Burkina Faso (West Africa)120 ? IVPama Partial Faunal Reserve Burkina Faso (West Africa)2,230 1955 VIPendjari Hunting Zone Benin (West Africa)1,750 1980 IIPendjari National Park Benin (West Africa)2,755 1954 UAPhalaborwa Mining Co. Private Reserve South Africa (Southern Africa)41 ? III?Piedra Nzas Natural Monument Equatorial Guinea (Central Africa)190 2000 IVPilanesberg National Park South Africa (Southern Africa)553 1979 VIPincely Classified Forest Guinea (West Africa)130 ? IIPleateaux Batéké National Park Gabon (Central Africa)1,748 2002 IIPongara National Park Gabon (Central Africa)962 2002 IIPongolapoort Nature Reserve South Africa (Southern Africa)119 1979 IIQueen Elizabeth National Park Uganda (Eastern Africa)2,343 1952 IIQuiçama National Park Angola (Southern Africa)9,500 1957 IIQuirimbas National Park Mozambique (Southern Africa)7,500 2002 IIRadom National Park Sudan (Eastern Africa)12,500 1980 VIRahole National Reserve Kenya (Eastern Africa)1,270 1976 VIRimoi National Reserve Kenya (Eastern Africa)55 1983 IV?Río Campo Nature Reserve Equatorial Guinea (Central Africa)762 2000 IIRuaha National Park Tanzania (Eastern Africa)10,300 1964 VIRubi-Tele Hunting Zone Democratic Republic of Congo (Central Africa)9,080 1930 270 ALPHABETICAL LIST OF PROTECTED AREAS IN ELEPHANT RANGE | APPENDIX III African Elephant Status Report 2007 Protected Area Country (Region) IUCN Categ. Area (km²) Year Created IIRubondo Island National Park Tanzania (Eastern Africa)457 1977 VIRufunsa Game Management Area Zambia (Southern Africa)2,328 ? IVRukwa Game Reserve Tanzania (Eastern Africa)4,109 ? IVRumanyika Game Reserve Tanzania (Eastern Africa)800 1974 IVRungwa Game Reserve Tanzania (Eastern Africa)9,000 1974 IIRwenzori Mountains National Park Uganda (Eastern Africa)386 1991 IVSaadani Game Reserve Tanzania (Eastern Africa)510 1968 UASabie Sand Game Reserve South Africa (Southern Africa)572 ? IVSahel Partial Faunal Reserve Burkina Faso (West Africa)16,000 1970 IISalonga Nord National Park Democratic Republic of Congo (Central Africa)19,000 1970 IISalonga Sud National Park Democratic Republic of Congo (Central Africa)17,000 1970 IVSambisa Game Reserve Nigeria (West Africa)525 ? IISamburu National Reserve Kenya (Eastern Africa)165 1985 VISandwe Game Management Area Zambia (Southern Africa)1,530 1971 VISapi Safari Area Zimbabwe (Southern Africa)1,180 1975 IISapo National Park Liberia (West Africa)1,292 1983 VIScio Classified Forest Côte d'Ivoire (West Africa)1,338 ? IVSelous Game Reserve Tanzania (Eastern Africa)44,000 1967 IISemliki National Park Uganda (Eastern Africa)195 1993 IVSemliki Valley (Toro) Wildlife Reserve Uganda (Eastern Africa)518 1929 IISerengeti National Park Tanzania (Eastern Africa)14,763 1957 VISette-Cama Hunting Area Gabon (Central Africa)2,000 1962 IIShaba National Reserve Kenya (Eastern Africa)239 1974 IIShambe Game Reserve Sudan (Eastern Africa)620 1985 IIShimba Hills National Reserve Kenya (Eastern Africa)193 1968 IVShiraro-Kefta Wildlife Conservation Area Ethiopia (Eastern Africa)753 1973 VISichifula Game Management Area Zambia (Southern Africa)3,600 1971 IVSingou Partial Faunal Reserve Burkina Faso (West Africa)1,920 1955 IVSiniaka-Minia Faunal Reserve Chad (Central Africa)4,260 1965 IISioma Ngwezi National Park Zambia (Southern Africa)5,276 1972 VISissili Classified Forest Burkina Faso (West Africa)285 ? IISkeleton Coast Game Park Namibia (Southern Africa)16,390 1971 VISongan-Tamin-Mabi-Yaya Classified Forest Côte d'Ivoire (West Africa)1,698 ? IVSongimvelo Game Reserve South Africa (Southern Africa)490 1983 VISorobouli Classified Forest Burkina Faso (West Africa)200 ? VISota Classified Forest Benin (West Africa)530 1947 VISouth Kitui National Reserve Kenya (Eastern Africa)1,833 1979 IISouth Luangwa National Park Zambia (Southern Africa)9,050 1972 IISouth Turkana National Reserve Kenya (Eastern Africa)1,091 1979 IISouthern National Park Sudan (Eastern Africa)23,000 1939 IITaï National Park Côte d'Ivoire (West Africa)3,500 1973 IITaita Hills National Reserve Kenya (Eastern Africa)165 ? IVTama Wildlife Reserve Ethiopia (Eastern Africa)3,269 1973 IVTamou Total Faunal Reserve Niger (West Africa)777 1962 IITarangire National Park Tanzania (Eastern Africa)2,600 1970 VITedo Controlled Hunting Area Ethiopia (Eastern Africa)2,347 1973 African Elephant Status Report 2007 APPENDIX III | ALPHABETICAL LIST OF PROTECTED AREAS IN ELEPHANT RANGE 271 Protected Area Country (Region) IUCN Categ. Area (km²) Year Created IVTembe Elephant Park South Africa (Southern Africa)300 1983 UATiapleu Classified Forest Côte d'Ivoire (West Africa)280 1932 UATimbavati Private Nature Reserve South Africa (Southern Africa)785 ? VITiogo Classified Forest Burkina Faso (West Africa)300 ? VITisse Classified Forest Burkina Faso (West Africa)185 ? VITondwa Game Management Area Zambia (Southern Africa)540 1971 VITrois Rivières Classified Forest Benin (West Africa)3,549 1949 IITsavo East National Park Kenya (Eastern Africa)11,747 1948 IITsavo West National Park Kenya (Eastern Africa)9,065 1948 VITui Classified Forest Burkina Faso (West Africa)460 ? VITuli Safari Area Zimbabwe (Southern Africa)416 1975 IIUdzungwa Mountains National Park Tanzania (Eastern Africa)1,900 1992 IVUgalla River Game Reserve Tanzania (Eastern Africa)5,000 1965 UAUmbabat Private Nature Reserve South Africa (Southern Africa)144 ? VUmfuli Recreation Park Zimbabwe (Southern Africa)115 ? IIUpemba National Park Democratic Republic of Congo (Central Africa)11,730 1939 IVassako-Bolo Strict Nature Reserve Central African Republic (Central Africa)860 1960 IIIVictoria Falls Natural Monument Zimbabwe (Southern Africa)20 1952 IIVirunga National Park Democratic Republic of Congo (Central Africa)7,800 1925 IIVirunga (Secteur Mikeno) National Park Democratic Republic of Congo (Central Africa)256 1969 IIVolcans National Park Rwanda (Eastern Africa)150 1929 IVVwaza Marsh Wildlife Reserve Malawi (Southern Africa)986 1977 IIW du Benin National Park Benin (West Africa)5,020 1954 IIW du Burkina National Park Burkina Faso (West Africa)2,368 1954 IIW du Niger National Park Niger (West Africa)2,200 1954 IIWaka National Park Gabon (Central Africa)1,069 2002 VIWarigue Classified Forest Côte d'Ivoire (West Africa)645 ? IIWaza National Park Cameroon (Central Africa)1,700 1968 UAWelgevonden Private Game Reserve South Africa (Southern Africa)330 ? IIWest Lunga National Park Zambia (Southern Africa)1,684 1972 VIWest Petauke Game Management Area Zambia (Southern Africa)4,140 1971 VIWest Zambezi Game Management Area Zambia (Southern Africa)38,070 1971 IVWonga-Wongue Presidential Reserve Gabon (Central Africa)3,800 1971 VIYamba Berete Forest Reserve Chad (Central Africa)550 ? IIYankari National Reserve Nigeria (West Africa)2,254 1991 IVYata-Ngaya Faunal Reserve Central African Republic (Central Africa)4,200 1960 IIZakouma National Park Chad (Central Africa)3,000 1963 IIZambezi National Park Zimbabwe (Southern Africa)563 1979 IVZemongo Faunal Reserve Central African Republic (Central Africa)10,100 1925 VIZeraf Game Reserve Sudan (Eastern Africa)8,085 1939 IIZinave National Park Mozambique (Southern Africa)5,000 1972 272 ACRONYMS & ABBREVIATIONS | APPENDIX IV African Elephant Status Report 2007 A P P E N D I X I V A C R O N Y M S & A B B R E V I A T I O N S AED African Elephant Database AERP Amboseli Elephant Research Project (Kenya) AESR African Elephant Status Report AfESG African Elephant Specialist Group AfRSG African Rhino Specialist Group ARF Assessed Range Fraction AS Aerial Sample Count AT Aerial Total Count AVIGREF Associations villageoises pour la gestion des réserves de faune (Benin) BGP Big Game Parks of Swaziland BR Biosphere Reserve BtR Botanical Reserve CA Conservation Area CAR Central African Republic CARPE Central African Regional Program for the Environment CBFP Congo Basin Forest Partnership CcA Concession Area CEESP Commission on Environmental, Economic and Social Policy CF Classified Forest CFA Central Africa Franc CHA Controlled Hunting Area CI Confidence interval CIMU Conservation Information and Monitoring Unit (Tanzania) CITES Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora CL Confidence limit CMS Convention on Migratory Species COMIFAC Conference of Ministers in Charge of Forests in Central Africa CR Community Reserve CRF Continental Range Fraction DA Different Area DC Dung Count DD Data Degraded DEFRA Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (United Kingdom) DFPN Direction de la Faune et des Parcs Nationaux (Cameroon) DNFFB Direcção Nacional de Florestas e Fauna Bravia (Mozambique) DRC Democratic Republic of Congo DRSRS Department of Resource Surveys and Remote Sensing (Kenya) DRWG Data Review Working Group DT Different Technique DWNP Department of Wildlife and National Parks (Botswana) EC Elephant Corridor ECOPAS Ecosystèmes Protégés en Afrique Sahélienne (West Africa) African Elephant Status Report 2007 APPENDIX IV | ACRONYMS & ABBREVIATIONS 273 ECOWAS Economic Community of West African States ELESMAP Southern African Elephant Survey and Monitoring Programme EMOA Elephant Management and Owners Association (South Africa) ES Elephant Sanctuary ESRI Environmental Systems Research Institute EWCO Ethiopia Wildlife Conservation Organization FFR Fauna and Flora Reserve FnR Faunal Reserve FR Forest Reserve GD Genetic Dung Count GEMS Global Environment Monitoring System GIS Geographical Information System GMA Game Management Area GmR Game Ranch GP Game Park GPR Game Production Reserve GR Game Reserve GRID Global Resource Information Database GS Ground Sample Count GS Game Sanctuary GT Ground Total Count HA Hunting Area HR Hunting Reserve HZ Hunting Zone IFR Integral Forest Reserve IG Informed Guess INDEFOR National Institute for Forestry Development (Equatorial Guinea) INR Integral Nature Reserve IQI Information Quality Index IR Individual registration IUCN The World Conservation Union JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency KAZA TFCA Kavango-Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area (Southern Africa) LAT Latitude LON Longitude MET Ministry of Environment and Tourism (Namibia) MIKE Monitoring the Illegal Killing of Elephants NA New Analysis NF National Forest NG New Guess NGO Non-Governmental Organization NlR National Reserve NM Natural Monument NNR National Nature Reserve NP National Park NP New Population NPe (National Park Extension) NPWMA National Parks and Wildlife Management Authority (Zimbabwe) 274 ACRONYMS & ABBREVIATIONS | APPENDIX IV African Elephant Status Report 2007 NR Nature Reserve NRCC Natural Resources Conservation Council NS National Sanctuary OG Other Guess ORNL/GIST Geographic Information Science and Technology Group at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (United States of America) PAGEN Partenariat pour l'Amélioration de la Gestion des Ecosystèmes Naturels (Burkina Faso) pers. comm. Personal communication PF Probable Fraction PFR Partial Faunal Reserve PFS Priority for Future Surveys PGR Private Game Reserve Pk Park PL Population Lost PNE Protected Natural Environment PNR Private Nature Reserve PR Partial Reserve PrP Presidential Park PRP Percentage Relative Precision PrR Presidential Reserve PvR Private Reserve Quest. reply Questionnaire reply RA Recreation Area RC Reserve Complex RDBMS Relational database management system RNP Regional Nature Park RP Recreation Park RS Repeat survey RyNP Royal National Park SA Safari Area SANParks South African National Parks SF State Forest SNR Strict Nature Reserve SNTC Swaziland National Trust Commission SR Special Reserve SSC Species Survival Commission Sty Sanctuary TAWIRI Tanzania Wildlife Research Institute TFCA Transfrontier Conservation Area TFR Total Faunal Reserve TRIDOM Dja-Odzala-Minkébé Tri-National Park UNEP United Nations Environment Programme UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization USFWS United States Fish and Wildlife Service WA Wilderness Area WCA Wildlife Conservation Area WCMC World Conservation Monitoring Centre WCS Wildlife Conservation Society (United States of America) African Elephant Status Report 2007 APPENDIX IV | ACRONYMS & ABBREVIATIONS 275 WP Wetland Park WR Wildlife Reserve WS Wildlife Sanctuary WWF World Wide Fund for Nature