clico
clicoClimate Change, Hydro-conflicts and
Human Security
A"cri&cal"study"of"the"rela&on"between"climate"
change"and"insecurity:"the"CLICO"project"""
Christos(Zografos(
czografos@gmail.com((
Political Ecology and Environmental Change Lectures
Geography Department, Masaryk University, Czech Republic
Thursday, 10 November 2016
Purpose(
•  Present(results(of(research(project(CLICO(
•  Outline(
–  The(CLICO(project(
–  Research(and(findings(
–  Discussion(of(findings(and(conclusions(
1(
Climate(change(and(security(
“Climate(change(will(increase(threat(of(war”((
“Conflict(caused(by(climate(change(risks(
reversing(the(progress(of(civilisaLon”(
Source:(hOp://theboldcorsicanflame.wordpress.com((
2(
2008"
Chris(Huhne((UK(Secretary(of(the(State(for(Energy(&(Climate(
Change)(talking(to(defense(experts((The(Guardian,(6(July(2011)(
Security((
3(
CC
NR scarcities
(e.g. less
fertile land)
Reduced LH
opportunities (esp.
developing world)
Increases conflict
(in situ)
MIGRATION
Increases
pressure on
scarce NR
(recipient
countries)
Increases conflict
(in recipient)
CC-struck
states
Recipient
states
1.  Unable to
function
properly
2.  Unable to
resolve conflict
DYSTOPIA
MoLvaLon(
•  “Usual”(scenario(quesLoned:(
–  Scarcity(and(coAopera&on(–(e.g.(Commons(dominant(in(
drylands((Øygard(et(al.,(1999)"
–  NR(abundance"and(conflict((Iraq,(Kuwait,(Nigeria,(Congo,(
etc…)((
–  CC(effect(on(violent(conflict(con$ngent(on(poli&cal"and(
socioAeconomic(variables(–(e.g.(17th(century(“general(
crisis”(e.g.(OOoman(Empire((White,(2011)((
4(
Moreover:(security(for(whom?(
Na&onal"security:"the"secure"
•  Object((unit)(of(reference:(state(
•  Conflict(routes:(crosskborder(
tensions;(immigraLon(
•  SoluLons:(militarised(–(refugee(
camps((Kenya)((
Human"security:"vulnerable"
•  Object(of(reference:(individual,(
community(
•  Sources(of(insecurity:(
consumerism;(globalisaLon(
•  IntervenLon:(support(for(SD(
development;(jusLce(
5(
Photo: AP
Human(security(
•  Adger((2010):((
–  a(state(whereby(individuals(and(localiLes(have(the(
necessary(op&ons"to"respond"to(threats(to(their(
human,(environmental(and(social(wellkbeing(
imposed(by(climate(change,((
–  and(have(the(capacity"and(freedom"to(exercise(
these(opLons(
6(
Research(challenge:(raLonale(
• The(chain"climate(change(–>(social(
impacts(is(long"and(fraught"with"
uncertainty(and(has(rarely(been(
substanLated(with(reliable(evidence"
(Nordås(and(Gleditsch,(2007)(
• The(human"security"focus(
7(
CLICO(
•  CLICO:(Climate(Change,(Hydrok
conflicts,(and(Human(Security((
•  CollaboraLve(3Ayear"research(
project((Jan.(2010(–(Dec.(2012)(
•  Area"of"study:(medkEur,(Maghreb,(
Middle(East,(and(Sahel(
•  Funded:"EC(FP7(CokoperaLon(Work(
Programme:(SSH((2009)(
•  Led(by(ICTA,(Universitat(Autònoma(
de(Barcelona((Spain)(
•  14"partners"in(Europe((EU(+nonk
EU),(Middle(East,(and(Sahel(
•  World’s"leading"researchers:"water(
resource,(peace(&(security,(and((
vulnerability(studies(
(
8(
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Focus(
•  WaterArelated"events"such(as(droughts,(floods(and(
sea(level(rise(expected(to(
–  intensify(with(climate(change(
–  put(pressure(on(security(of(populaLons((e.g.(lower(agricultural(yields,(
conflict(over(scarcer(water(resources)(
•  CLICO(explored(social"dimensions"of(climate(change,(
i.e.(condiLons(under(which(hydrokclimaLc(hazards(
infringe(upon(security"of(human(populaLons(
9(
CLICO(research(design:(
4(main(research(blocks(
10(
Conceptual
framework
11 in-depth
case
studies: CC
hotspots
Large stats
N-study of
domestic
conflicts
Policy: nat’l
and int’l level:
current and
desirable pols
Synthesis
report
Policy:
tranboundary
level
In-depth study of
links between
CC and HS
Identify
generic
driving
forces
of CC-
induced
conflict
Int’l +nat’l (study area)
policies re: hydroclimatic
variability +CC
adaptation (view HS)
Understand determinants of
adaptive capacity of
transboundary water institutions
Comprehensive discussion of
project results and their research
and policy implications
11(inkdepth(case(studies(in(CC(hotspots(
•  Analyse(+(compare(
the(dynamics(of(
hydrokclimaLc(
change,(security(
and(conflict(in(a(
variety(of(
geographical(and(
sociokeconomic(
contexts(
11(
Ciudad de Alejandria, Egipto
Cuenca del rio Jordan, Israel y Territorios Palestinos
Rio Nilo, Etiopia
Desierto de Sinai, Egipto
Darfur, Sudan
Region de Tillabéri, Niger
Delta del Ebro
Cuenca del rio Seyhan, Turquia
Rio Sarno, Italia
Biosfera de Andalucia y
Marruecos, España,
Marruecos
Isla de Chipre
Findings(
Three(crucial(sources(of(insecurity:(
1.(DemocraLc(deficits(
2.(MalkadaptaLons(
3.(Structural(violence((
12(
Finding(1(
(
•  Democra$c(deficits(are(crucial(sources(of(
human(insecurity((
–  DomesLc(water(conflict:(f(water(demand(for(
development;(democracy;(poliLcal(stability((
–  Democracies:(more(conflict(but(less(violent(
–  DemocraLc(deficits(within(democracies((Italy)(
conducive(to(insecurity(
13(
Finding(2(
•  Mal7adapta$on(has(adverse(consequences(for(
human(security(
–  Divergent(adaptaLon((Niger)(
(
–  AdaptaLon(for(growth((Ethiopia)(
14(
Finding(3(
•  Violence(related(to(insecurity:(is(also(structural(
–  “built(into(the(structure”((Galtung,(1969)(
–  Human(insecurity(in(context(of(climate(change(
reveals(occurrence(of((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((
structural(violence((Turkey)(
15(
Discussion(
•  Systemic"contradic&on"at(heart(of(current(relaLon(
hydrokclimaLc(change(–(human(security:((
! Insofar(as:(the(pursuit(of(adaptaLon(through(statekled(
economic(growth(projects(ends(up(producing(new(
insecuriLes(for(parts(of(the(populaLon((
! Inherent(tension(when(pursuing(development(through(
growth((
•  The(state:(what(role?(
16(
Research(and(policy(lessons(
Policy"relevance"
•  The(policy(debate:(
transformaLonal(vs.(
incremental(adaptaLon(
•  TransformaLon:(
–  Economic(system(imperaLves(
–  Mindsets(and(logics(
•  Incremental(changes(too(
•  Genuine(democraLsaLon((
Research""
•  Study:(states(of(insecurity(
–  sociokeconomic(and(poliLcal(
condiLons(and(processes(that(
produce(absence"of"op&ons(
–  E.g.(growth:(not(direct(decrease(
security,(but(depriving(opLons(
•  Understudied(links:(
structural(violence(<–>(
human(security(<–>(climate(
change(
17(
Summary(and(conclusions(
•  Direct,(linear(connecLon(climate(k>(conflict(
(insecurity):(wanLng(
•  Three(sources(of(insecurity:(
–  DemocraLc(deficits(
–  MalkadaptaLon(
–  Structural(violence(
•  Systemic(contradicLon:(
–  AdaptaLon(that(pursues(insecurity(reducLon(via(
intervenLons(oriented(towards(economic(growth(
produces(new(insecuriLes(
18(
19(
Thank you!
For more information:
• www.clico.org
• Zografos,(C.,(Goulden,(M.(C.,(&(Kallis,(G.((2014).(Sources(of(human(insecurity(in(the(face(of(hydrok
climaLc(change.(Global(Environmental(Change,(29,(327k336.(
• European Policy Brief: Climate change, water conflicts and human security in the
Mediterranean, Middle East and Sahel. http://ec.europa.eu/research/social-sciences/pdf/
policy-briefs-clico-112012_en.pdf
Annex(I:(Ebro(Delta(4(studies(
•  Discourses(of(adaptaLon(and(vulnerability((Q(study)(
–  Albizua,(A.,(Zografos,(C.(forthcoming(Environmental(Policy(&(Governance(
•  Vulnerability(analysis(and(suggesLons(for(adaptaLon(
–  Fatorić,(S.,(Chelleri,(L.(2012.(Ocean(Coastal(Management((
•  Scenario(focus(group(workshop((2011)(
–  Analyse(effects(and(responses(to(combinaLon(of(possible(future(climate(
and(water(management(changes(in(the(river(basin(
–  Calvo(Boyero,(D.(&(Zografos,(C.(CLICO(Report((Ebro(Delta(profile)(
•  QualitaLve(case(study(of(drivers(of(insecurity(to(climate(change(
–  Zografos,(C.(2012.(The(microkpoliLcs(of(climate(security(in(the(Ebro(Delta,(
Catalonia((Spain).(CLICO(Final(conference,(December(2012,(Nicosia,(Cyprus((
20(
The(case:(the(Ebro(Delta(
•  South(Catalonia(
•  320(km2((Malta)(
•  Built:(surplus(Ebro(river(
sediment(discharge((
((
•  approx.(98%(rice(Catalonia(
(approx.(13%(Spain)(
(
21(
Climate(change(in(Ebro(Delta(
•  Catalan(Office(for(Climate(Change,(
2012:(Ebro(Delta(
–  One(of(two((Pyrenees)(areas(in(
Catalonia(“clearly(vulnerable(to(CC”((
–  “…basically(due(to(SLR”(
•  Expected(0.4m(seaklevel(rise(could(
inundate(nearly(50%(of(delta(by(
end(of(century((no(measures)(
22(
Source: Generalitat Catalunya (2008)
Source:Juan A Ortega Núñez
Seaklevel(rise(
•  RelaLve(SLR:(subsidence((
–  Natural((
–  Reduced(sediment(transport((
–  Dam(construcLon(upstream:(
retain(90k99%(sediments(
23(
Delta
Environmental(flow(
•  Past,(trapped:(tricky(
•  Downstream(flow(of(
current(and(future(
•  EF:(describes((
–  “quanLty,(quality(and(Lming(
of(water(flows(required(to(
sustain(freshwater(and(
estuarine(ecosystems(and(
human(livelihoods(and(wellk
being(that(depend(on(these(
ecosystems”((Brisbane(
DeclaraLon(2007)(
•  Polemic(issue:(annual(
average(EF(–(last(
secLon(of(Ebro((Delta)(
"
hm3/"year"(values"approx.)"
(
24(
New"(Feb"2014)"law: 3,300
GC"(ACA): 7,000
NGOs:"" 9,000
AdaptaLon(on(the(coast(
•  Land((rice)(next(to(coast((
•  Abandon(culLvaLon(
–  ecological(restoraLon:(sand(dunes(
–  natural"buffers"inland(ricekfields(
–  flood((seakstorms):(but(no(private(
property(loss(
•  Footpaths(+(cycling(behind(dunes(
(tourism):(
–  “contain"the"effects"of(seaklevel(
rise(due(to(climate(change(in(Ebro(
Delta”((MMA(2010)(
•  Some((limited)(conflict(
25(
Ricardo"Torres"Reina,"alias"“El"Bombita”"
Findings:(adaptaLon(challenges(and(
opportuniLes((
•  Combine(so}(adaptaLon(AND(sediment(
transport(
•  Social(jusLce(and(security,(but(at(what(scale?(
•  Future(water(management(changes(more(
crucial(than(climaLc(changes(
•  Increase(role(of(local(exisLng(insLtuLons(
26(
Findings:(adverse(impacts(of(adaptaLon(
AdaptaLon(on(the(coast:(
•  Maintenance(of(key(sources(of(vulnerability(
•  Diminishing(trust(in(decisionkmaking(
•  CiLzenship(grievances(
27(
Annex(II:(Nkstudy(DEMOCRACY(variable(
•  For(democracy,(we(rely(on(the(polity2(variable(from(the(Polity"
IV"dataset"(Marshall(and(Jaggers,(2013).(This(item(captures(a(
state’s(degree(of(democracy(along(3(dimensions:((
1.  presence(of(ins&tu&ons"+"procedures"through"which"ci&zens"
can"express"effec&ve"preferences"about(alternaLve(policies(
and(leaders(
2.  existence(of(ins&tu&onalized"constraints"on"exercise"of"
power"by(the(execuLve.((
3.  guarantee"of"civil"liber&es"to(all(ciLzens(in(their(daily(lives(and(
in(acts(of(poliLcal(parLcipaLon.”(The(final(variable(taken(from(
this(dataset(ranges(between(k10((full(autocracy)(and(+10((full(
democracy).(
•  Polity’s(evaluaLon(of(state's(level(of(democracy:(based(on(
evaluaLon(of(state's(elec&ons"for(compe&&veness,(openess"
and(level(of(par&cipa&on" 28(
Annex(II:((
Nkstudy(POLITICAL(STABILITY(variable(
•  Second,(poli&cal"(inA)"stability"is(measured(by(an(indicator(
that(counts(the(number(of(years(since(a(country(entered(the(
Polity(IV(dataset(in(1800(or(had(a(threekpoint(change((“most(
recent(regime(change”)(in(the(polity2(score(in(either(direcLon(
of(the(scale(over(a(period(o}hree(years(or(less((Marshall(and(
Jaggers,(2013,(p.(17).((
–  This(coding(rule(also(applies(to(the(end(of(a(transiLon(
period,(i.e.,(“the(lack(of(stable(poliLcal(
insLtuLons”((Marshall(and(Jaggers,(2013,(p.(17).(As(soon(
as(such(a(change(occurs,(this(count(item(is(reset(to(0(and(
the(count(starts(again.(Hence,(the(higher(the(values(on(this(
variable,(the(more(poliLcally(stable(a(country.(
29(