Lenka Suchánková Institute of Chemical Process Fundamentals of the Czech Academy of Science USTAV CHEMICKÝCH PROCESŮ AV ČR INSTITUTE OF CHEMICAL PROCESS FUNDAMENTALS OFTHEASCR Global Change Research Institute ^Q;zechGiobe of the Czech Academy of Science - Recetox- Masaryk University—' muni I recetox SCI Apollo 17 spacecraft on its way to the Moon What comes to your mind when I say "Climate Change"? Start the presentation to see live content, For screen share software, share the entire screen, Get help at pollev.com/app II. Climate Change (CO Earth System Control variable Threshold avoided Planetary State of knowledge* process or influenced by Boundary (zone of slow variable uncertainty) Climate Atmospheric CO2 Loss of polar ice sheets. Atmospheric CO2 1. Ample scientific change concentration, Regional climate concentration: 35G evidence. ppm; disruptions. ppm 2. Multiple sub-system Loss of glacial freshwater (350-55G ppm) thresholds. Energy imbalance supplies. 3. Debate on position of at Earth's surface, Weakening of carbon Energy boundary.! W m-2 sinks. imbalance: + l W m"2 (+1.Ü-+1.5 W m"2) Boundary: Atmospheric C02 concentration no higher than 350 ppm Pre-industrial level: 280 ppm Current level I September 2022: 41 5.57 ppm Ma Una LOO September 2021: 413.32 ppm September 2012: 391.02 ppm (Weekly average value) Diagnosis: Boundary exceeded Climate change History of climate change and research The earliest interest in "climate" was of a rather pragmatic nature Greek klinein — „to incline, at an angle" Aristoteles (384-322 BC) - Meterologica - VALID FOR ROUGHTLY 2000 YEARS Can you guess the year when the greenhouse effect was DISCOVERED? Top Start the presentation to see live content, For screen share software, share the entire screen, Get help at pollev.com/app CC - history 1753 — discovery of C02 1 824 — Joseph Fourier - greenhouse effect in the atmosphere TEMPERATURE RELATED! 1 861 — John Tyndall - water vapour other gases are GREEN HOUSE GASSES 1 896 — Svante Arhenius — hypothesis on enhancement of GH effect due to increase of C02 in the atmosphere as a consequence of fosil fuels combustion (HOTHOUSE) - the prognosis on increase of the temperature by several °C when GHG concentration doubles is still valid 1901 - term „GREENHOUSE EFFECT" (Ekholm) CC - history 1957 — oceanographer Roger Revelle and chemist Hans Suess shown that oceans can not absorb entire C02 produced by people "Human beings ore now corrying out o lorge sca/e geophysicol experiment.,, J INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON climaie change The international body for assessing the science related to climate change. Created in 1 988 To provide governments at all levels with scientific information that they can use to develop climate policies Thousands of people from all over the world contribute to the work of the IPCC. For the assessment reports, experts volunteer their time as IPCC authors to assess the thousands of scientific papers published each year to provide a comprehensive summary of what is known about the drivers of climate change, its impacts and future risks, and how adaptation and mitigation can reduce those risks. The IPCC does not conduct its own research. Working Group I: the Physical Science Basis; Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnera Working Group III: Mitigation of Climate Change CC... and politics 1972 — UNCHE (The United Nations Conference on the Human Environment), Stockholm. CC becomes one of the global priorities • Creation of United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) 1990 — 1st IPCC report — „Temperature increase by 0.3-0.6 °C is caused a/so by the human activities" 1992 - Earth summit — United Nations Framework Convention on CC, Rio de Janeiro 2005 - Kyoto Protocol (1997) j CHINA — developing country, USA — did not sign J 2013 - 5th IPCC report .Scientists are 95% certain that humans are the "dominant cause" of global warming since the 1950s" 2016 - Paris Treaty came into force 2021-2022- 6th IPCC report 2021 — United Nations Climate Change Conference, Glasgow Greenhouse Effect and Global Climate Change - Greenhouse effect (GE) — natural atmospheric effect essential for life on the Earth - GE dampens temperature fluctuation between day and night and thus provides favorable conditions for life Not to SCO'S! How Do Greenhouse Gases Actually Work? @ When poll is active, respond at pollev.COm/lindan443 ■ & Text LINDAN443 to +420 736 350 959 once to join What is an average temperature on the Earth? 26 °C 0°C 15 °C -2°C Start the presentation to see live content. For screen share software, share the entire screen. Get heip at pollev.com/app Greenhouse Gasses (GH) in the atmosphere - the most important GHG is water vapour - H20(g) that creates 2/3 of greenhouse effect - however H20(g) concentration in the atmosphere is not significantly influenced by human activities - second most important GHG is C02 (~ 20 % GH effect) - last 1 3 % of GH effect — mainly gases like CH4/ N20, CFC Water Carbon Dioxide Methane Nitrous Oxide Atmospheric Concentration 0.01^*%* 385 ppm 1797 ppb 322 ppb Rate of Increase iVa 1.5 ppm/yr 7.0 ppb/yr 0.8 ppb/yr Atmospheric Lifetime Very short 1-5 clays Variable 5-200 yr 12 yr 120 yr Global Warming Potential (GWP) n/a f 1 21 310 * The amount of water vapor in the air varies according to temperature and density of air [usually -1-3% of troposphere) t Water vapor levels vary strongly according to region, so rates of change and warming potential cannot be assessed Annual Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector Industrial processes 16,8% Transportation fuels 14.0% Power stations 21.3% Waste disposal and treatment 3,4% Agricultural ^ ^ byproducts Fossil fuel retrieval processing, and distribution 10.0% Land use and biomass burning 11.3% 10 3% Resi^ntia^commercial' and other sources Problem? • increase of C02 level in the atmosphere due to the antropogenic action - disruption of the balance between release and absorption of C02 in the carbon geochemical cycle MAJOR CARBON STORES AND TRAN 5FER5( estimates) Plant/animal deuy and Vegetation, respiration 1212. Carbon store (in billions of tonnes) Carbon lransfer (in billions o1 tonnes per year) Fossil fuels and cemenl produclion Almospnere 66, 6.4 Into solution 92.2 P ill j| e: IPCC ~\ Assessment Report 'S 1.5 3 Q. o o Global warming / cooling rates over the past 2,000 years Reconstructed warming Reconstructed cooling Instrumental measurements Upper range of natural (pre-industrial) warming rates Reconstructions Climate models >v-0.5 J I-1-!-r —i-r 400 800 i-r 1200 "i-1-1-1-1-r i-1 200 600 1000 Year CE 1400 1600 1800 2000 GLACIAL/INTERGLACIAL PERIOD CC indicators Climate Change Indicators (53) Sea Level Temperature: Air & Ocean (S) Water Vapor (^) Ocean Acidity Snow Cover Glaciers and Ice Sheets Increase of CQ2 level - C02 level increased more than >40 % since pre-industrial level - level of other greenhouse gases increases as well - main source of this increase is fosil fuels combustion + deforestation PROXY (INDIRECT) MEASUREMENTS Data source: Reconstruction from ice cores. Credit: 3BÜ I 260 A O™220 o 130 HIGHEST HISTORICAL COa LEVEL CURRENT 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 Thousands of Years bgfore today (0 - 1950) DIRECT MEASUREMENTS: 2005-PRESENT Data source: Monthly measurements (average seasonal cycle removed). Credit: NOAA Historical: memos, newspaper, diaries .Biological: tree rings, corals, ice cores Geological: ocean sediments, ice sheets, past glaciers, stalactites World Greenhouse Gas Emissions in 2016 Total: 49.4 MtC02 Sector End Use/Activity Transportation 15.3% DC Electricity and Heat 30.4% 111 Z Iii Buildings 5.5% Other Fuel Combustion 3% I Manufacturing 12.4% and Construction I Fugitive Emissions 5.8% Industrial Processes 5.6% Agriculture Land U&e Change and Forestry Waste 6.5% 3.2% «res prcs.sf6.Nr> u» Source: Greenhouse gas emissions on Climate Watch. Available at: https^www.climatewatchdataorg WORLD RESOURCES INSTITUTE Other indicators (variables) of CC changes in temperature (land/ocean) changes in ice cover in Arctic ocean changes in ice cover in North and South pole sea level rise humidity rise The bnnua/mean qlj tempe^ctftfrre for each yea -surface^ and 20215 ^redicWk to b^bel^e&v^l °C and \\j °Cftiaher manfpreindust^Ta^r5-^ levels (the dv< 1900). age over years 1^50- Temperature Anomaly (°C compared to the 1951-1980 average) s-4 -2 0 2 24 20 18 16 14 tu E 12 1 io CT i 8 Average monthly sea ice extent ANTARCTIC WINTER MAXIMUM ARCTIC WINTER MAXIMUM ARCTIC SUMMER MINIMUM ANTARCTIC SUMMER MINIMUM I I I I I I I I r 1982 1990 1998 2006 2014 Less ice in the Arctic ocean new naval routes from Europe to Asia Japan from Rotterdam - Suez Canal - 30 days - Northern Sea Route - 1 8 days WORLD economic forum Gtabil Afrnd-i Arctic Fulura ol *h* Ewlrvnmvnt C*d-Kiiwirli The final frontier: how Arctic ice melting is opening up trade opportunities iVilti linuiria! fjini In b» r-ip'mtrd, mil rhu ntvld hdva «fxufh rastjunt id i*iut danuginf thu Itrtt „The United States Geological Survey estimates that the Arctic contains approximately 13% of the world's undiscovered oil resources and about 30% of its undiscovered natural gas resources." EAST CANADA BASIN EAST GREENLAND BiFT B AtlN Q EAST BARENTS BASIN § YFNlbt Y K. KATANGA BASIN Q WEST StEERlAN BASIN Q PROJECTED ICE MELT 21" CENTURY VISUAL CAPITALIST IOUHCEI Axcitc 5« Shipping Oil and N'ilut.il lfc»iviit« at the Arrlic D*veta|wr«ni In th* A v ■ ■-. v. apaUl tit torn Glacier calving in Arctic ocean Glacier Watching Day 17 0:02/4:41 "CHASING ICE" captures largest glacier calving ever filmed - OFFICIAL VIDEO (a) Emissions pathways E 1 - o «? cj 9 5 It £ 3 o~I O -o ra § o C Scenario vs model? Temperature probabilities Reference-No policy Projected warming until 2100 relative baseline range , 'jr ^^^"^^ KetererKe-Low" policy to prEinduslnal l&völs INDCs ■ 1-1.5-C 1 5-2 E 3-j-C Paris-Continued ambition IPCCAR5 2°C Paris-Increased ambilinn t; b0% chäncti ränge " III u strati w 50% ■■: a: a::' i: D -10-:- 1990 2000 2010 2020 20» 2040 £050 2060 207O 208Q 2090 2100 0 10 20 30 40 50 SO 70 60 90 100 Likelihood of piujecled warming until 2100 Schematic for Global Atmospheric Model I Horizontal Grid (latituHe-LnngrtLrdE} Vertitar Gnd Eight or Pressure) - plausible and often simplified description of how the future may develop, based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about driving forces and key relationships the impact of humans on the environment the climate models describe how the earth's climate functions based on physical laws and equations, approximation needed! If the climate models are combined with the emission scenarios, it is possible to predict with a certain amount of probability how the climate will be in the future. Temperature rise scenarios to 2100 scientific vs. political uncertainty Representative Concentration Pathway Scenarios 4 of the 1,184 AK5 Scenarios Data CDlAOGCP/IPCC/Fu&s et al 2014 IPCC AR 5 2014 GHG related RCP8.5 3.2-5.4X relative to 1350-1900 RCP6 2.0-3.7°C RCP4.5' 1.7-3.2 C RCP2.6 0.9-2.3'C IMPLAUSIBLE PLAUSIBLE Upper end = RCP4.5 Reference (BAU) = SSP4-3.4 Goal = RCP2.6 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 University of Colorado Boulder a) b) c) d) RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 2,6 W.m-2 4,5 W.m-2 6,0 W.m-2 8,5 W.m2 significant lowered concentration of C02 in atmosphere(421 ppm-2100) stabilization of C02 levels on lower level (538 ppm) stabilization of C02 levels on higher level (670 ppm) „bussiness as usual" (936 ppm) Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) SSPl Sustainability Education level High Low Socioeconomic challenges to mitigate vary, e.g., with the resource and carbon intensity of consumption. Socioeconomic challenges to adapt vary, e.g., with the level of education, health care, poverty and inequality in societies around the world. 5SF Scenario Estimated wanning ■JSii-SiSJ; EfiLin1 jrij warming (»91-2100] , .>■ v likely range In "£ poti-Bing sac 1 ' 'J very low emt*«iDn&. co3 envisions ctfl lo net zero around ztiw 1.« -c tn s 1.0- is HRMU w*t CillG mwuku UOn environs cul lonelier o siuukj 17X 1 8-C 1 3- 24 SBPS-44 intermediate H14G enwyurjitt CO; emissions around current levels until 2000, men raring but nor reaching nel zero try 21 DO 2 eflHSSKsns Aouble nv ? 1 fin as1*; ib-it SSFMJS very high Grid orrasww «rj emsaorts infUe ty »75 33-57 The tEOC'Sttfli repon flrf nof ealimate iwHita^^ bill a JCiJQ comnvenLary oexcnbsd SSPfv-ft 5 nit h.*jJwy uflatefy. 0 as unlikely and 5 as iiiteryl'S Hcwcnn a (l-port citing lhe above ccjnmunlary shews IhaJ RCP8 5 Is 1he bfsl math 1o I he cwrmjtdllwt; (nnisswu-s from 3005 Id M20 £'"1 CC consequences Consequences of CC - regionally specific - e.g. increasing vs. decreasing yields in some regions Likely Scenarios if Climate Change Continues t SELECT CLIMATE IMPACTS TuócATCupn pi li Turk REDUCTIONS IN SEA ICE # INCREASING YIELDS : * DECREASED SNGWPACK * SEVERE STORMS SPECIES LOSSES REDUCED TOURISM HEAT WAVES (•CH^NÖNGYIELDS / m REDUCED GROWING SEASONS *WI5US WATER SH0«TAG6g populAT|ONS „ Shf^/^T .\ INCREASED DISEASE RECEDING GLACIERS UNSUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT * RISING SEA LEVELS * SPECIES EXTINCTION CHANGES in PRECIPITATION FLOODING CHANGING RANGE OF DISI FBIDtilUERSITY HANGING FORESTS WHAT YOU CAW DO TO HELP ► | very heavily populated aeraas Actual sea level 15 million people affected 17,000 km* of land submerged 18 million people affected 22,000 km2 of land submerged Consequences of CC • Heat waves, floods, drought, storm intensity • DESERTIFICATION A, Observed temperature change relative to 1850-1900 Since the pre-indjstrial period (1850-1900) the observed mean land surfaceair temperature has risen considerably more than the global mean surface (land and ocean) temperature (GMST). CHANGE in TEMPERATURE rel. to 18SC-1900 (*C) 2 I 1.5 0.5 ■0.3 .,1 IT. Change in surfaceair temperature over land CO Change in global iland-ocean) mean surface temperature (GMST) TO 1B50 1880 1900 1920 1940 I960 1930 2000 2018 CHANGES OF BIODIVERSITY higher vegetation cover (Asia, Europe, S Am, SE Australia) drying of vegetation (N Eurasia, Central Asia, Congo Basin) (2019) Summary for Policymakers 6th IPCC Assessment Report Impacts of climate change are observed in many ecosystems and human systems worldwide {a} Observed impacts of climate change on ecosystems Ecosystems Global Afrit a As' a Australasia Central and South America Europe North America Small Islands Arctic Antarctic Mediterranean region Tropical forests Mountain regions Deserts Biodiversity hotspots Changes in ecosystem structure Terrestrial Freshwater Ocean Species range shifts Terrestria I Freshwater Changes in timing {phenology) Terrestria I Freshwater Ocean • • I • • • • # # • • • • i • • • • • na J ra na • • na 1 ra • nä na 1 ■ ra O na w • » • • not assets od Confidence in attribution to climate change ^ High or very high ^ Medium Low Evidence limited, insufficient na Not applicable Impacts to human systems in panel [bj — Increasing adverse impacts + Increasing adverse and positive impacts (b) Observed impacts of climate change on human systems Human systems Impacts on water scarcity and food production Animal and Fisheries Agriculture/ livestock yields and Water crop health and aquaculture scarcity production productivity production Impacts on health and wellbeing Global Africa Asia Australasia Central and South America Europe North America Small Islands Arctic Cities by the sea Mediterranean region Mountain regions © e © o e e © e o © o o © o o © e o © o o e e e e e e e © o e o e Infectious diseases Heat malnutrition and other Mental health Displacement Impacts on cities, settlements and infrastructure Inland Flood/storm Damages floodingj and i nd uced Damages to key associated damages in to economic damages coastar-areasinfrastructure sectors Figure 5PM.2 | Observed global and regional impacts on ecosystems and human systems attributed to climate change. Confidence levels reflect uncertainty in attribution of the observed impact to climate change. Global assessments focus on large studies, multi-species, meta-analyses and large reviews. For that Teason they can be assessed with higheT confidence than regional studies, which may often Tely on smaller studies that have more limited data. Regional assessments consider evidence on impacts across an entire region and do not focus on any country in particular (a} Climate change has already altered terrestrial, freshwater and ocean ecosystems at global scale, with multiple impacts evident at regional and local scales where there is s./r c ent teratLre to ma 50-100% About as likely as not 33-66% Unlikely 0-33% Very unlikely 0-10% Extremely unlikely 0-5% Exceptionally unlikely 0-1 % Present likelihood It is very likely that the number of cold days and nights has decreased and the number of warm days and nights has increased on the global scale. Main consequences of CC - summary Phenomena Present trends Confidence level Phenomena Future trends Confidence level The rise in weather and climate extremes has led to some irreversible impacts as natural and human systems are pushed beyond their ability to adapt. (increases in the frequency and intensity of climate and weather extremes, including hot extremes on land and in the ocean, heavy precipitation events, drought and fire weather) High confidence Biodiversity loss and degradation, damages to and transformation of ecosystems are already key risks for every region due to past global warming and will continue to escalate with every increment of global warming Very high confidence!!! Risks in physical water availability and water-related hazards will continue to increase by the mid- to long-term in all assessed regions, with High confidence Warm-water coral bleaching and mortality and increased drought-related tree mortality High confidence Increased heat-related human mortality Medium greater risk at higher global warming levels confidence Increases in frequency, intensity and severity of High confidence Impacts in natural and human systems from ocean acidification, sea level rise or regional decreases in precipitation have also been High confidence droughts, floods and heatwaves, and continued sea level rise will increase risks to food security attributed to human induced climate change Climate change and related extreme events High confidence Roughly half of the world's population currently experience severe water scarcity for at least some part of the year due to climatic and Medium cofidence will significantly increase ill health and premature deaths non-climatic drivers In the mid- to long-term, displacement will Medium confidence Climate change including increases in frequency and intensity of extremes have reduced food and water security, hindering efforts to meet Sustainable Development Goals High confidence increase with intensification of heavy precipitation and associated flooding, tropical cyclones, drought and, increasingly, sea level rise Climate change has adversely affected physical health of people globally and mental health of people in the assessed regions Very high confidence!!! Hot extremes including heatwaves have intensified in cities High confidence Scientific language is very brief and talking in the words of probability and confidence 54 588 zhlradnutl ■ 1 □. 3.2021 ifcl.lTlS. 41 68 ^ ZDIELANIE =+ ULQZlt „How much do we want to spend on the climate compare to other problems?" „...more heat will domoge crop growth in many warmer climates, but it means better agricultural production in cold countries. And, CO2 is a fertiliser — commercial greenhouses pump in extra C02 to grow bigger tomatoes. So overall, we can expect agriculture to gain from global warming in the short and medium term..." B. Lomborg Let's discuss! Start the presentation to see live content, For screen share software, share the entire screen, Get help at pollev.com/app Moral dimension of CC „...more heat will damage crop growth in many warmer climates, but it means better agricultural production in cold countries. And, C02 is a fertiliser — commercial greenhouses pump in extra C02 to grow bigger tomatoes. So overall, we can expect agriculture to gain from global warming in the short and medium term..." B. Lomborg yes, increasing yields, but mainly in countries with the actual overproduction, while the agrarian countries in developing world (with significant hunger) will experience even drop in the production HISTORIES 1 August 2012 Climate change: The great civilisation destroyer? War and unrest and the collapse of many mighty empires, often followed changes in loca I climes. Is this more than a coincidence? 1_ More than coincidence? ©NewScientist The decline and fall of many civilisations coincided with periods of climate change, and there are also correlations between climate change, population size and the frequency of warsras data from Europe shows [right) MycenaeanS ~1100 BC Centuries-long dry period Western Roman Empire -250 tD 500 AD Climate became extremely variable Maya -900 AD Cerrtury-lnng dry period Moche -600 AO Floods and drougfn y Temperature in northern hemisphere Egyptian New Kingdom -1100BC Centuries -I one} dry period Akkadian Empire -2200 BC Centuries-long dryperiod; Hittites -1200 BC Centuries-long dry period Tang Dynasty 907 AD Century -long dry period Tiwanaku -1100 AD Centurles-long dry period Harrappan "1B00 BC ^hifr inmnnsncn rain^ Khmer Empire -13D0 AD Flwrj^nrl drought 1500 1GO0 1700 1B00 Year {□arts i n nünnslised units to ?hüw relative smpIlTgpej Solutions of CC? Solutions? Start the presentation to see live content, For screen share software, share the entire screen, Get help at pollev.com/app The Nobel Peace Prize 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Al Gore Democratic polititian Ex-vicepresident USA Environmentalist Gore held the "first congressional hearings on the climate change, and co-sponsor[ed] hearings on toxic waste and global warming". Share this: 67 The Nobel Peace Prize 2007 IPCC INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANCE WMO UNEP Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Prize share: 1/2 Photo: Ken Gpprann Albert Arnold (Al) Gore Jr. Prize share: 1/2 „...was one of the first politicians to grasp the seriousness of climate change and to call for a reduction in emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases." The Nobel Peace Prize 2007 was awarded jointly to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Albert Arnold (Al] Gore Jr. "for their efforts to but/d up and disseminate greater knowledge about man-made climate change, and to lay the foundations for the measures that are needed to counteract such change" A 2018 Economics Nobel winner created an invaluable tool for understanding climate change Prize winners William Nordhaus and Paul Romer studied long-term economic growth. Nordhaus calculated the impacts of climate change. ByUrrairlrfan | Qrt£r20ier!2:10ptnEDT Most Read 1 Angelina Jolie alleges Brad Pitt physically abused her and their children 2 A GOP insider on the Re publicans who knew Trump was da ngerous —and went MAG A anyway 3 Cheating scandals hit different right now 4 Herschel Walker isanepically flawed candidate. He could stilt 5 The sleep advice no one fells you William Nordbaijs, left, and Paul Römer, right, wereavrardedthe^OlS Nobel Menwriat Pria workoMctfg-teřm^omi™:growth. I Royal i/.fd^hAcadernyofSciences The Weeds Understand how policy >vpacts iisop a. _Da ivai ad Fr d?^_ 1IM1I.IU1 Nobel Prize in Physics Awarded to ScicnlisLs Who Warned the World of Climate Change Their groundbreaking research answered fundamental questions about our universe and Earth's complex climate J Š Corryn Wetzel Daily Correspondent October 5, 2021 2021 MOST POPULAR 1. Stunning Facial Reconstructions Resurrect a Trio of Medieval Scots The True History Behind Netflix's 'Blonde' The Nobel Committee in Physics was awarded to Syukuro Manabe, Klaus Hasselmann, and Giorgio Parisi earlier today, mi Nik j^. ciniciie-Li ■■ m^uc Fn^ouLr^jLi 4- 5- oooooooo A Brief H istory of the Sa lern Witch Trials The Real History Behind The Woman King' Thislü-Year-üldGoy Makes Art That Sells for Over % 100,000 Early Tuesday morning, three scientists received the Nobel Prize in Physics fortheir decades orf work 75 Politics on CC - main aim — decrease the GHG emissions, mainly C02 1 992: UN Framework Convention on Climate Change 1 997: Kyoto protocol (in force from 2005) industrial countries should decrease their GHG emissions until the year 2012 for 5.2 % compared to the year 1990 - different threshold for different countries (e.g. EU 8%) - however, industrial countries (Annex I countries with Kyoto targets) contributed „only" with 24 % of global C02 emission (2010) Temperature rise scenarios to 2100 scientific vs. political uncertainty Kyoto protocol - result (2012) Into force in 2005 industrial countries (Annex I countries with Kyoto targets) reduced their emissions for 24.2 % ! (much more than promissed target 5.2 %) however, emission in other countries have risen so fast, that global C02 emissions increased by 32 % from 1 990 to 201 0 © extension of the Kyoto Protocol until 2020 certain countries (the EU and a few other countries) have committed themselves to further reducing C02 emissions. EU e.g. by 20-30% compared to 1 990 Average - 1 8% - generally achieved ISO 150 140 130 120 110 100 M CC K so 50 40 :( M 10 0 % change in CO2em.(2014) 1990 = 100 h o > O ui * -j a; -i m ui H) y m in -i y-q s a n. - UJ z:_it"m<-Q.iij 5 £ Paris treaty (2015) - continuation of the prolonged Kyoto protocol (2020) - aim: Limit the temperature rise not more than 2 °C compared to pre-industrial era, ideally below 1.5 °C - came into force in November 4th 201 6 Shift in the rhetoric! Nations Umes ^ -s«r>- Con ference sui ,es Change* *r Paris France 9+ „The 1.5 C figure is not some random statistic. It is rather an indicator of the point at which climate impacts will become increasingly harmful for people and indeed the entire planet," said WMO Secretary-General Prof. Petteri Taalas. In contrast to the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, the distinction between developed and developing countries is blurred, so that the latter also have to submit plans for emission reductions. |~| State parties I I Signatories [~| Parties also covered by European Union ratification I I Agreement does not apply Solution Summary for Policymakers Adaptation and mitigation Many options available now in all sectors are estimated to offer substantial potential to reduce net emissions by 2030, Relative potentials and costs will vary across countries and in the longer term compared to 2030, Mitigation option; Wind energy Solai energy Bioelectricity Hydiopower Geothermal energy Nuclear energy Carbon capture and storage {CCS) Bioelectricity with CCS Reduce CHt emission from coal mining Reduce CHL emission from oil and gas Carbon sequestration in agriculture Reduce CHL and Ufl emission in agriculture Reduced conversion of forests and other ecosystems Ecosystem restoration, afforestation, reforestation Improved sustainable forest management Reduce food loss and food waste . Shift to balanced, sustainable heahhy diets Avoid demand for energy services Efficient lighting, appliances and equipment New buildings with high energy performance Onsite renewable production and Lie Improvement of existing building stock Enhanced use of wood products Fuel-efficient light-duty vehicles Electric light-duty vehicles Shift to public transportation Shift to bikes and e-bikes Fuel-efficient heavy-duty vehicles Electric heavy-duty vehicles, ind. buses Shipping - efficiency and optimisation Aviation - energy efficiency , Biofuels Energy efficiency Material efficiency Enhanced recycling Fuel switching [electr, nat gas, bio-energyh HJ Feedstock decolonisation, process charge Carbon capture with utilisation (CCUJ and CCS Cementitious material substitution Reduction of non-CO- emissions Reduce emission of fluorinated gas Reduce CHL emissions from solid waste , Reduce CH, emissions from wastewater Potential contribution to net emission reduction, 2030 (GtCOf-eq yr1] Net lifetime cost of options: D| Costs ar& lower than the reference 0-20 (USD tCGyeq-1] M 20-50 (USD tCD eq ) ■H 50-100 (USD tCOj-eq"1] M 100-200 (USD tCOi-eq"1] Cost nat allocated due to high variability or lack of data i-1 Uncertainty range applies to the total potential contribution to emission reduction. The individual cost ranges are also associated with uncertainty Mitigation options have synergies with many Sustainable Development Goals, but some options can also have trade-offs. The synergies and trade-offs vary dependent on context and scale. "f ! Sectoral and system mitigation option* " Wi nd energy Solar energy Bioenergy Hydropower Geotfiermal energy Nuclear power . Carbon captureand storage {CCS} Carbon sequestration in agriculture1 Reduce CHj and H,0 emission in agriculture Reduced conversion of forests and other ecosystems' Ecosystem restoration, reforestation, afforestation Improved sustainable forest management Reduce food loss and food waste Shift to balanced, sustainable healthy diets „ Renewable* supply* " Urban land use and spatial planning Electrification of the urban energy system District heating and cooling networks Urban green and blue infrastructure Waste prevention, minimisation and management Integrating sectors, strategies and innovations " Demand-side management Highly energy efficient building envelope Efficient heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) Efficient appliances Building design and performance On-slteand nearby production and use of renewable* Change in construction methods and circular economy Change in construction materials ' Fuel efficiency - light-duty vetiide Electric light-duty vehicles S -1 i ■ l to public transport Shift to bikes, e bikes and non motorised transport Fuel efficiency-heavy-duty vehicle Fuel shift (including electricity) - heavy-duty vehicle Shipping efficiency, logistics optimisation, new fuels Aviation - energy efficiency, new fuels . Biofuels Energy efficiency Material efficiency and demand reduction Circular material flows Electr ification CCS arid carbon captureand utilisation (CCU) Relation with Sustainable Development Goals 5 » 11 12 M 15 IS 17 Sedicns S.42, 6 J 7 Sedicns S.42, 6 J 7 Sedicns S.42,1Z.5-, Bi Section 6.4.2, 5.7.7 DD D D DD I □□□□□□I ID □□ □ I □ □□ □□ □ DD □ Type of relations Q Synergies ■ Trade-offs D Both synergies and trade-offs' Blanks represent no assessment5 Confidence level: ■ High tanfkf&Ki ■ Medium (ůfííidencĚ ■ iciv cud/id? we Related Sustainable Development Goals: 11 Mo poverty 1 Zero hunger I 3 Good health and wellbeing I 4 Quality education I 5 Gender equality I 6 Clean waterand sanitation 7 Affordable and clear energy I 8 Decent work and economic growth I 9 Industry, innovation and infrastructure 14 Reduced iiitqjdliLiei 11 Sustainable cities and communities 12 Responsible consumption and production 13 Climate action 14 Life below water 15 Life on land 16 Peace, justice and strong institutions 17 Partnership for the goals Sed en 7.4 SectfcnTÍ Sedicns EJ, EJ, 8.6 Sedicns EJ, EJ, 8.6 Sedicns EJ, E J, 8.6 SedhnB.2. B.4,8.6 SedlaliB.2. B.4, S.C SenirjnsB.Z S.-1, =.e SedicnS : Table 9.S SedicnS_8. Table 3_5 SedicnS_8. Table 3_5 SedicnS_8. Table 3_5 SedicnS : Table 9.S SedicnS : Table 9.S 5edirjn&9.4, 3.5 SectaiM Sedlán 10J, 10J, 10 B Secttoniaj, 10J, 10 B SecbonslD.2. 10 B, TiiJe 10 3 Sections1D2. 10 B, TiiJe 10 3 Sedlou 10.J, 10J, 10 B SecthnildJ, iaB SedJrjnsirj.S. 10.B SBCrJDralD.5.10..B SřrticnilC.3.10J, 10 i, 10A.1D B Sectkin1li3 S«tiDn11.S.Í S«tiDn11.S.Í Sertkns 1153,6.7.7 S«tiDn11.S.Í 1 Sail carbcn managament : TímDer, biemaü agn. feedslcr L li we ■ ul |-iě- Iv.ci .: 1 lí-ilh levels ha; bran reported 'Nnl assessed doe 'u in Lid lileralore Figure SPM.S | Synergies and trade-offs: between sectoral and system mitigation options and the SDfjs. Figure SPM.7 | Overview of mitigation options and their estimated ranges of costs and potentials in 203D. This pre-final-publication version of the ARSWGIII 5PM approved text is subject to error correction. 45 How to decrease CQ2 emmisions? decrease the fossil fuels consumption - increase efficiency of the industr. production - end the non-effective industr. production - save the energy and material economic tools to decrease C02 - EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) bio-fuels? Probably not... Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 7, 11191-11205, 2007 www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/7/11191/2007/ ©Author(s) 2007. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License. Atmospheric \ Chemistry f^yj and Physics Discussions Geo-engineering? N20 release from agro-biofuel production negates global warming reduction by replacing fossil fuels P. J. Crutzen1-23, A. R. Mosier4, K. A. Smith5, and W. Winiwarter36 'Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Department of Atmospheric Chemistry, Mainz, Germany 2Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, La Jolla, USA 'international Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (NASA), Laxenburg, Austria *Mount Pleasant, SC, USA 5School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK sAustrian Research Centers - ARC, Vienna, Austria Received: 28 June 2007-Accepted: 19 July 2007 - Published: 1 August 2007 Correspondence to: P. J. Crutzen (crutzen@mpch-mainz.mpg.de) Geo-eqineerinq - types and opportunities Transforming Earth It is now possible to identify the methods and locations where planetary geoengineering will have to take place (7) PLANT TREES Plant forests and regularly harvest them, j Trees areacarbonsinkaslongas they are growing, and not allowed to rot. Location: unused farmland BECCS (Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage) Suck out atmospheric C02 by growi ng biof uel crops like sugar cane, burn them for energy, capture the resulting C02, K a and bury it. (BJ BIOCHAR Burn plant material without oxygen to make charcoal -like "biochar". This carbon store can then be buried in soiI, where it acts as a fertiliser. Location: anywhere with rich plant growth (DA) DAC (Direct air capture) Build shipping-container-sized boxes full of a chemical "sponge" that sucks C02 out of the air, ready for burial. You may need 100 million of them. Location: windy and dry areas. More wind means more air is driven th rough t he boxes, increasing uptake © IRON FERTILISATION Trigger photosynthetic plankton blooms in the ocean by dumping irpn into areas that don't have much. If the plankton sinks, carbon is stored. Location: iron-depleted regions of the | OCEAN LIMING Th row lime into the ocean, it reacts with dissolved C02 to form carbonates. This may also help corals by reducing ocean 11 acidification. ) ENHANCED WEATHERING Crush common minerals like olivine to powder to increase surface area for reacting with C02 and water. Location: proceeds fastest in warm, wet cond itions, so areas such as humid coasts and rivers are best Tree grOWth? (Christian Korner, 2022) • More productive forest — more trees.... • BUT! • Lower carbon storage C02 stimulate growth Higher growth rate More dynamic system Reduced resistence!!! No higher carbon sequestration Tree longevity rather than g rowth rate controls carbon capital of the forest Carbon pool size maximum European Green Deal (December 2019) Striving to be the first climate-neutral continent EUROPEAN GREEN DEAL The European Commission adopted a set of proposals to make the Elfs climate, energy, transport and taxation policies fit for reducing net greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55% by 2030, compared to 1 990 levels. What about CR? CESKA REPUBLIKA 2030 společné - udržitelní UDRŽÍTE LN Ý POZVOU D "e KLÍČEM K BUDOUCNOSTI CFSKÉ REPUBLIKY! KLICEM K UDHjí ITtLN t MU HOiVO]l JE ETBAl E CICK* RÁMEC ČFKKÄ f»FP!IR.L IKA JOlľl. NA ľFTO UJFPmUÉ STÍ? Á MCP MÄ.TF K DISPOZICI ŕ. kl j AL Ml IHrOflMACE, STRATEGICKÉ PLAMV A ZAPÖ3ENI VÜLCH. ZAJÍMÁ V,",. JAK MA TOM 3SME'' V TOM PtilPADÉ PROVAS MAME PRIPRAVENOU EPAAVÚ O KVALITĚ ŽIVOTA A 3E3Í L DPZITE LNOST1; am DOBROVOLNĚ ZÁVAZKY Adaptation Mitigation MinktETfclvD íivoIiiiho proitrpd M inisterstvo Témata Konta kty ■ ■_;_i'. r.pijtwm ■■ Zrnina klímam ■- . _ / Enollrti O O O Politika ochrany klimatu v Ůeské republice klímalův Ú R i tokti 7Ů0-Í Drfonujc hlnwii eik a apalfoni v ablasli ochrany khmaíu na n a r odri uichih Lak. aůy yaj-.íťovala spJnAni cilú sraÍDvámiernisi s k luníkových plynů v návaznosti na povirwiMl i vyplývajici / rnrŕmiiiodnich ůoíiod (Rámcová úmluva OSU □ imM kitnatu a KjúEsky prolokol. Paŕiíská dohoda a rivalky vyplýva |i'ci t Iľ^i.'Jj-Ilw Evrop n U unic-J ľnľo slrarcglo v cblasli ochrany klímalu sp /amŕh^jo na období 7017 a> 7-0.30, s rr+hdem do loku Í05Q. a móla by [ak pŕispŕt k dlDLíiírfrjtJciriu pŕcchotfu na udríilrind níífco musni bMpodiísfYf ÍR Vyhodnoceni PoMilty octuany klmaiu v ČK bylo zpracováno i ptedkiíere) viade vioce 7071 a aktualizace Polníky ochrany klímalu * ÍR je ý návaznosti na přezkum závazků v rámci Pat Líške QoJioítyfiaplÉnov^na do konce roku 7073. Vyhodnocení lAazuJe. 1c cil pro roh 2020. odpojí-:' &nlíe*u emist o20^ oproti roku 2Q0&. » s nejveCaj pravdt-flodotinos!! podarilo nahnil Olo Politiky ochrany klimatu pro rok 2030 (snilena ó 30 X oproti rohu 2DQ5) ie «no£ne dle aktuálních scénaAi dosáhnout jen pri naplnení scenWe a dodateínymi opalŕenimi Ve scenári s* současnými politikami a coalfenmil chybí k :oho nsplneiw íhľLi&a o2.5 % Rovnéi dosaieni indikativniho ofe k roku 2M0 predpoklade pou» scénAt s dodal ŕt-nyml op4lŕ«wiu Trajektorie snliovani emisi via* není v souladu4 do&aíenim ind*a1wr%ho C* sníženi emlat do í Oku 2050 o 80 % oproil 'Oku 1*90 a ŮR dosud wmá k dispozici s£*íi are které by počítaly s doflaleíwil kllriMlK** neutraMy. Púlmka«hranrKlímalu obsahLaccdkem 4] oparení, oů pfiiŕeiFYythlťmal i polník, prca opaľc-m r jŕJng;ii/ych sektorech a ŕ po vfŕKijni a vyvpj. monKorerani a gpjiteni r oblasti m«inannlni ochrany klímalu a rozvojoi* spolupráce 73 %opa'fcrij se pocdc vyhodnoceni podlito naplnil. 22 X opaiícni byto pJncna tislccrnc- a 5 % nttrylo plnŕno ritocc Ministerstvo životního píflstředi Ministerstvo Témata Kontakty CtigHsh O O O Adaptace na zmenu klimatu Ada plíce na změnu klimatu ja na natodru úrovni ŕeiena SUÄlfiCJíUJJJíBi DCKiminkách CR (rfále \éi 'adaplačni sttaleqiE*} DukuniHnl byl pFlpravEn v rámd inc/iic/i :r v i spcduptáce. kDordírálarpm nr'ipravy cslkaieha materiálu bylo MinistHf stvn ŕivnlniho praslíBdi Ada piacnr suacagl* 3 Jefl ootan yycha ir z Qllo knihy Lvtopskŕ Komlse< _Fľl způsobeni se zmŕne kJIrnatu: smŕíovánl K cvropskiŕmu íi m: umu rámcr" (20(H) a je v souladu s AOaptaftif stratť^iľ EU. přičemž reflektuje merítko a podmínky ůtf Vytvorení a implementace ada placních plámj a opalíenl je nedílnou aouŕásti /ávaykii pfi|a(ých v rámci fiámcavé úmluw OSN o zmene kUrnalu AJNfCCO a PafilsKe dohody. Implementačním dokumentem adaplotnf sirategleje rVárodnŕ aVŕnf ptán adaptace na zmŕnu klimatu i<äila těž .akční plín"). Akční plín obsahuje seznam adaptačních opatrení a úkolů, a Co ■ čelne odpovědnosti ia plnení, leiminů. určeni relevanlrich zdrojů financováni b odhad nákladu na realiŕBci c;\k\ I rff i U eU £021 byla Vládou. ŮR sehvaic-na rjrvnl aktualizace: aoaplacnl strategie: a aŕLcniha plarvu. Na akiuailzjíl ebou do4wmenlů se posílelo víco nez 170 odbarrríků z verejných, v^dookŕch a neziskových insMuci, Materiály se opírají zeiména o odborná podklady zprícovan é 'ozortn imi □rgani/acefnl M7P (CilMÚ b CFNlA) s podporou AkaclpmiE) vM ČR {re\m. C7FCHGL OBF - Ústav vy/kumu globálni viněny AV (itt, v.v.i.) a rady rľalšich vy/kumnycli oryani/aci Right choice? ■j^._",-.!"fj REUTE RS" Vtartti ■-■ Business ■-- Legal --■ Markets ■-- BreaMngwlůws TecrmolMjyv Investigations Merc ■- Q I Sign In My View O Following Ü Saved 0 c CLimil« Ching» Eniíiroi )C DC d minulu rojü ■ JuLyfc, iUii! 1U:U3 HMtM I +Ji ■ LjiI UixlJkKl H pnonrnioqu Aa EU parliament backs Labelling gas and nuclear investments as green IW<.il- Abnnll '■ nummary * Lawmakers back 'greerT EU Invottmynt label for the fuels *■ Likely to. become Law unless super-majority of states- veto * Gasr nuclear rules have split EU countries and lawmakers * Luxembourg, Austria to challenge Law In court BRUSSELS, July 6 (Reuters) - The European Parliament on Wednesday backed EU rules Labelling Investments In gas and nuclear power plants as climate-friendly, throwing out an attempt to block the Law lhat hah; t^pc^od dc?cip rlftn bptwoc-n countries nyor haw to fight cLimatti- changcv The vote paves the way for the European Union proposaL to pass Into Law, unless 20 ot the bloc's 27 member states decide to oppose the move, which is seen as verv unllkcLy. The new rules will add gas 3rd nuclear power plants to tne EU "taxonomy" ruiebook from 2021, enabling Investors to label and market investments In them as green. out of 639 lawmakers present, 3ZB opposed a motion mat sought to block the EU gas and nuclear proposals. The European Commission welcomed the result. It proposed the rules in February afLer more than a y^ar of delnv and intense lobbvino from aouernments and industries. "This is a poor signal to the rest of the world that may undermine the EU's leadership position on climate action/' said Anders Schelde, chief investment officer at Danish pension fund Akademiker Pension. If approved, the gas and nuclear rules would apply from Jan. 2023. Gas plants must switch to run on low-carbon gases by 2035 New nuclear plants must receive construction permits before 2045 to get a green investment label, and be located in a country with a plan and funds to safely dispose of radioactive waste by 2050. SYSTEM CHANGE NOT CLIMATE CHANGE „CHANGE OUR OWN PRACTICES OF HOW WE WORK WITH KNOWLEDGE"