China in the World Economy
Autumn 2023
Annotation
This course aims to acquaint students with the development of China’s
economy since the beginning of pro-market reforms in 1978. It will lay out the
logic and aims of the main reforms, explain the resulting changes in China’s
economic performance and finally describe the contemporary Chinese economic
system and analyze its advantages and shortcomings. Special attention shall be
given to the increasing role of industrial policy and state interventionism
under Xi Jinping, as well at to the contemporary trade war and technological
rivalry between China and the United States. Moreover, the course will account
for the China’s role in international economic organizations and depict the
growing impacts of its economic rise on third countries, both via both trade
and political projects such as the Belt and Road Initiative.
At the end of the course, students should be able to explain what makes
China’s economy distinct from both Western liberal capitalism and Soviet-style
central planning, to have gained a grasp of China’s growing global commercial
clout and to possess an understanding of the main causes and nature of the
current US-Chinese economic and technological rivalry.
Seminar:
During the 8th
week of the semester, a seminar will take place. This seminar will be concerned
with the following question: “Which country is to blame for the US-Chinese
trade war and technological competition?”
Students shall be divided into two equally large groups, one of
which will advocate for the position that the cooling of relations is the fault
of the United States, whereas the other group will attempt to prove that it is
in fact China who caused the dispute. In order to stake out this position, each
student is going to write a position paper, at least 3 norm pages long, and submit
it at least 2 days before the seminar.
It is recommended to explain
your position on issues such as: China’s compliance with WTO agreements, its
alleged theft of intellectual property and mistreatment of foreign investors,
the costs of the trade war for consumers in the US and for American companies,
the national security implications of China’s growing GDP and America’s
dependence on China, or the relevance of human rights considerations (Honk
Kong, Xinjiang etc.). However, it is not necessary to cover all of these topics
and in fact it is allowed to focus on topics that favor your side of the
argument.
In total, a student
can obtain at most 5 points for the seminar.
The evaluation will take into account both the quality of the position paper
and the student’s active participation in discussion.
Even though a student
is supposed to advance his or her side of the argument, the text should not
be outright biased, propagandistic or dishonest! It is welcome for students
to include counter-arguments against their position and persuasively refute
them, it is on the other hand not recommend to use half-truths or otherwise
distort reality.
Essay
At the end of the semester, each student will write a final essay focusing
on one of five possible topics, all of which are dealing with China's
future development path and its impacts on the world, except for one, which is
about the EU’s policy towards China.
The deadline for submitting the essay is the 17st
of December 2022. The essay must be at least 4 norm pages long. The
maximum amount of points a student can gain for the
essay is 5.
The available topics are:
1) Policy recommendations for China's ideal
trajectory
Imagine you are a Chinese technocrat envisioning the
future development of your nation. Describe the main opportunities and
threats China is going to face in the future and recommend how China should
respectively take advantage of them or avoid them in order to maximize its
prosperity and influence by 2050.
You might cover themes such as: Should China continue
in its focus on industrial policy and advanced technologies? Should it continue
with an export driven model, or seek to strengthen its domestic consumption? Is
state ownership of significant enterprises a source of strength, or should it
be phased out? How grave are the demographic and environmental problems the
country is facing and what should be done about them?
You are welcome to chose other topics that interest
you, but please do stay within the realm of economic and deveopment policy. The
essay might also include a brief section about preferable conduct on the world
stage, but do not make foreign policy the center of the work.
2) How will China's success influence the position of
the West in the world economy?
Will China be able to return to rapid economic growth
and surpass the West, or not?
If yes, does it mean that advanced nations are facing
the prospect of further deindustrialization? If so, where might their
comparative advantages lie? Is it likely they will withdraw into further
protectionism in the case that Chinese competition will continue to grow
stronger? How will this relative decline change Western and American
self-perception?
If no, what will prevent it from doing so and what are
the sources of continuing Western success? Will the West be able to ride out
the storm using its current institutions, or will it have to drastically adapt
to overcome this challenge? Will there still be a transition to a multipolar
world order?
You might also tell a story of something in between,
perhaps China outdo the West in some areas and not in others.
3) How will China's rise influence the position
of developing countries?
Again, is it an opportunity, or a threat -
but this time, from the point of view of Global South nations. Is China a
welcome source of much needed investment, or is there a looming threat of
unsustainable debt? Is it a useful market for raw materials and agricultural
exports and source of relatively cheap machinery, or is this a new form of an
unequal relationship, that will prevent poor countries from industrializing and
further trap them in an inferior, peripheral position?
What is the relevance of China's growing rift with the
West? Might this allow developing countries to get a better deal, or will they
become a battleground of proxy conflicts like during the Cold War?
Last but not least, is there anything developing
countries might learn from China? Would it be a good idea to attempt to
adopt China's economic model, or parts of it?
4) How will China's rise impact global economic
governance?
Will China's rise strengthen or weaken existing
multilateral institutions (WTO, IMF, WB)? Will China seek to significantly
reform them, or even replace them with its own alternatives? Or will China
conclude that global governance as it was created by the West suits its
interests too and there is no need for large changes?
In what direction would these changes be, why would
China press for them? Would it make these institutions more inclusive,
"democratic" and sensitive to the needs of developing countries? In
other words, are China's preferences in harmony with those of poorer countries,
and can China therefore be expected to "open the doors" for other
non-Western nations? Could global governance even survive in a multipolar
world with several different competing economic and political systems?
5) What should the EU’s policy towards China be
during the 2020s?
Should the EU seek to mimic the restrictive US approach
to China, or should it remain open to trade and investment flows to and from
China? If restrictions should be imposed, then what is it that makes them
necessary? Does China pose a threat to democracy and civil liberties, or even security
of European countries? Or is it purely a case of pragmatic protectionism? What
restrictions should Europe have, how should they be complemented by industrial
policy? Finally, what do you think will be the actual EU policy towards China
and why?
Exam:
The course shall be
concluded by a written exam comprising four open-ended questions. Each
answer will be given up to 5 points, therefore, the maximum possible
amount of points a student can obtain from the exam is 20.
Evaluation:
In order to
successfully complete the course, a student needs to acquire at least 15
points. Points are going to be translated into grades as follows:
30-27,5 points - „A“
27-24,5 points - „B“
24-21,5 points - „C“
21-18,5 points - „D“
18-15 points - „E“
14,5-0 points - „F“