BSSn4478 Predictive models in security practice

Faculty of Social Studies
Spring 2025
Extent and Intensity
1/1/0. 7 credit(s). Recommended Type of Completion: zk (examination). Other types of completion: z (credit).
Teacher(s)
Mgr. Tomáš Bělonožník (lecturer)
doc. PhDr. Roman Chytilek, Ph.D. (lecturer)
Mgr. Michael Myklín (seminar tutor)
Guaranteed by
doc. PhDr. Roman Chytilek, Ph.D.
Department of Political Science – Faculty of Social Studies
Contact Person: Mgr. Lucie Pospíšilová
Supplier department: Division of Security and Strategic Studies – Department of Political Science – Faculty of Social Studies
Prerequisites (in Czech)
! BSS478 Predictive models && !NOW( BSS478 Predictive models )
Course Enrolment Limitations
The course is also offered to the students of the fields other than those the course is directly associated with.
The capacity limit for the course is 7 student(s).
Current registration and enrolment status: enrolled: 0/7, only registered: 0/7, only registered with preference (fields directly associated with the programme): 0/7
fields of study / plans the course is directly associated with
Course objectives
The course acquaints students with methods of prediction of highly complex security events, respectively developments. Emphasis is placed on the methodology of analysis. Part of the course are practical seminars, focused on the prediction of security development in the Czech Republic, co-tutored by practitioners.
Learning outcomes
Course graduates: - understand the predictive methodology - will be able to design a prediction studies in the field of security - will be able to interpret complex security scenarios
Syllabus
  • Week 1: Introduction Week 2: Prediction methods in the field of security I. Week 3: Prediction methods in teh field of security II. Week 4-7: Standalone work, individual consultations Weeks 8-12: Seminars: Predictions of Security Development in the Czech Republic
Literature
  • SMITH, Alastair. The dictator's handbook : why bad behavior is almost always good politics. Edited by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita. 1st ed. New York: PublicAffairs, 2011, xxv, 319. ISBN 9781610391849. info
  • BUENO DE MESQUITA, Bruce. Predictioneer's game : using the logic of brazen self-interest to see and shape the future. 1st ed. New York: Random House, 2009, xxii, 248. ISBN 9781400067879. info
  • BUENO DE MESQUITA, Bruce. The logic of political survival. 1st ed. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 2005, xiii, 536. ISBN 0262025469. info
  • BUENO DE MESQUITA, Bruce. Predicting politics. Columbus: Ohio State University Press, 2002, viii, 170. ISBN 0814259847. info
  • BUENO DE MESQUITA, Bruce. The war trap. New Haven: Yale university press, 1981, xii, 223. ISBN 0300030916. info
Teaching methods
Lectures, Standalone work, Consultations, Seminars
Assessment methods
Participation in lectures and seminars 20%. Case study preparation and its presentation in a seminar 80%. At least 60% of available points is required to complete the course.
Language of instruction
Czech
Further Comments
The course is taught annually.
The course is taught: every week.
The course is also listed under the following terms Spring 2021, Spring 2022, Autumn 2023.
  • Enrolment Statistics (Spring 2025, recent)
  • Permalink: https://is.muni.cz/course/fss/spring2025/BSSn4478